Cited by 764Misinformation and Its ImpactsParanormal Experiences and BeliefsMemory, History, Trauma, Identity

Conspiracy theories as part of history: The role of societal crisis situations

Open access
van Prooijen, Jan-Willem, Douglas, Karen M·2017·Memory Studies

Abstract

In the present contribution, we examine the link between societal crisis situations and belief in conspiracy theories. Contrary to common assumptions, belief in conspiracy theories has been prevalent throughout human history. We first illustrate historical incidents suggesting that societal crisis situations—defined as impactful and rapid societal change that calls established power structures, norms of conduct, or even the existence of specific people or groups into question—have stimulated belief in conspiracy theories. We then review the psychological literature to explain why this is the case. Evidence suggests that the aversive feelings that people experience when in crisis—fear, uncertainty, and the feeling of being out of control—stimulate a motivation to make sense of the situation, increasing the likelihood of perceiving conspiracies in social situations. We then explain that after being formed, conspiracy theories can become historical narratives that may spread through cultural transmission. We conclude that conspiracy theories originate particularly in crisis situations and may form the basis for how people subsequently remember and mentally represent a historical event.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This integrative review argues that belief in conspiracy theories is not unique to the modern digital age or Western cultures, but has recurred throughout history especially during societal crisis situations. It proposes that crisis-induced fear, uncertainty, and lack of control motivate sense-making, and that conspiracy theories can then stabilize into historical narratives transmitted across generations.

Key findings

  • Conspiracy theories have not increased over time in the reviewed data: Uscinski and Parent coded 104,803 letters to the New York Times and Chicago Tribune from 1890 to 2010, finding fluctuating but non-increasing conspiratorial content, with spikes shortly before 1900 and in the late 1940s/early 1950s.
  • Societal crisis situations—defined as impactful and rapid societal change that calls power structures, norms, or the existence of specific people or groups into question—are proposed to stimulate conspiracy beliefs through fear, uncertainty, and feeling out of control, which increase sense-making motivation.
  • Conspiracy theories can become cultural/historical narratives: Gallup polling cited shows JFK conspiracy belief was slightly more than 50% in the 3 years after the assassination, rose to 81% in 1975, stayed above 70% until 2003, peaked again at 81% in the early 2000s, and remains above 60% recently.
  • Exposure to conspiracy theories is linked to increased powerlessness and maladaptive intentions, including withdrawal from politics, decreased willingness to reduce one’s carbon footprint, and decreased willingness to vaccinate a child.

Methods

  • Design: integrative, theoretical review combining historical observations with psychological literature; no new empirical study is reported.
  • Data/sample: historical examples (e.g., AD 64 Rome fire, Jewish conspiracy theories, Holocaust, 9/11, JFK assassination) and prior empirical studies, including Uscinski and Parent’s 104,803 letters, Andeweg’s EU trust/satisfaction data from 1974–2012 and 1997–2012, Gallup JFK polls, and correlational/experimental psychology studies.
  • Analysis: narrative synthesis linking societal crisis, uncertainty and lack of control, sense-making, conspiracy belief, and cultural transmission into historical narratives.

Limitations

  • Stated: providing an objective definition of “crisis” is difficult because labeling an event a crisis requires subjective judgment and its significance often can only be evaluated in retrospect.
  • Stated: no research has yet studied cultural differences in conspiracy belief, so possible cultural differences are speculative; many findings are correlational and cannot establish whether uncertainty causes conspiracy beliefs or vice versa, though experimental work attempts causality.
  • Evident from the text: as a narrative review, it does not report a systematic search or meta-analysis, and some claims are explicitly speculative, such as the psychological payoff of conspiracy theories and future trends in JFK conspiracy beliefs.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1177/1750698017701615

Cites

49 of 49 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 52 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Interpretationnone given

    After being formed, conspiracy theories can become historical narratives that may spread through cultural transmission.

    “We then explain that after being formed, conspiracy theories can become historical narratives that may spread through cultural transmission.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Premisecitation

    People have a fundamental need to understand why events occurred, particularly in the case of negative or unexpected events.

    “Since people have a fundamental need to understand why events occurred, particularly in the case of negative or unexpected events (Brückmuller et al., this issue), crisis situations often elicit sense-making narratives among citizens that become part of their representations of history.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Brückmuller et al., this issue

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Interpretationreasoning

    Aversive feelings experienced in crisis-fear, uncertainty, and the feeling of being out of control-stimulate a motivation to make sense of the situation, increasing the likelihood of perceiving conspiracies in social situations.

    “Evidence suggests that the aversive feelings that people experience when in crisis—fear, uncertainty, and the feeling of being out of control—stimulate a motivation to make sense of the situation, increasing the likelihood of perceiving conspiracies in social situations.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Premisecitation

    Jewish conspiracy theories-suggesting a Jewish plot to achieve world domination-still fuel anti-Semitism in various parts of the world, such as Malaysia, Turkey, and Poland.

    “Jewish conspiracy theories—suggesting, for instance, that there is a Jewish plot to achieve world domination—still fuel anti-Semitism in various parts of the world, such as Malaysia (Swami, 2012), Turkey (Nefes, 2015), and Poland (Golec de Zavala and Cichocka, 2012).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Swami, 2012

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Nefes, 2015

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    • cites Golec de Zavala and Cichocka, 2012

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Premisecitation

    Hofstadter (1966) noted that conspiracy theories help people comprehend complex events that are difficult to understand otherwise, by attributing these events to a powerful and evil enemy group.

    “Hofstadter (1966) noted that conspiracy theories help people comprehend complex events that are difficult to understand otherwise, by attributing these events to a powerful and evil enemy group.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hofstadter (1966)

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims. 27
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 6
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Societal crisis situations have stimulated belief in conspiracy theories and almost invariably elicit conspiracy theories.

    “We first illustrate historical incidents suggesting that societal crisis situations—defined as impactful and rapid societal change that calls established power structures, norms of conduct, or even the existence of specific people or groups into question—have stimulated belief in conspiracy theories.”
    • Also stated in: § Historical crises and conspiracy theories · boosted
      “More important for the present purposes is that societal crisis situations almost invariably elicit conspiracy theories.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Conspiracy theories originate particularly in crisis situations and may form the basis for how people subsequently remember and mentally represent a historical event.

    “We conclude that conspiracy theories originate particularly in crisis situations and may form the basis for how people subsequently remember and mentally represent a historical event.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Belief in conspiracy theories has been prevalent throughout human history and a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories is part of human nature.

    “Contrary to common assumptions, belief in conspiracy theories has been prevalent throughout human history.”
    • Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · hedged
      “A more plausible conclusion, therefore, is that a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories is part of human nature and that people have been susceptible to such beliefs throughout history.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Most conspiracy theories in history have no evidence to support them.

    “While some conspiracy theories have turned out to be true (e.g. the Watergate and Iran–Contra scandals), most conspiracy theories in history have no evidence to support them (Pipes, 1997).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Pipes, 1997

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    People often experience societal crisis situations as uncontrollable, and hence they are a cause of substantial uncertainty and anxiety among citizens.

    “People often experience such situations as uncontrollable, and hence, they are a cause of substantial uncertainty and anxiety among citizens.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Lacking control and experiencing subjective uncertainty are closely interrelated, and both describe the aversive experience of being in situations where it is unclear what the future may hold.

    “The psychological concepts of lacking control and experiencing subjective uncertainty are closely interrelated, and both describe the aversive experience of being in situations where it is unclear what the future may hold.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In the 1930s and 1940s, Jewish conspiracy theories were a major part of Hitler's speeches and a potent force in inspiring the Holocaust.

    “Back in the 1930s and 1940s, Jewish conspiracy theories were a major part of Hitler’s speeches and a potent force in inspiring the Holocaust (Snyder, 2015).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Snyder, 2015

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    A competitive intergroup setting promotes a need to be vigilant, given that the powerful outgroup may cause more harm in the future, and conspiracy beliefs enable perceivers to estimate what the outgroup is capable of.

    “Such a competitive intergroup setting promotes a need to be vigilant, given that the powerful outgroup may cause more harm in the future, and conspiracy beliefs enable perceivers to estimate what the outgroup is capable of.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Conspiracy theories provide people with simplified answers to questions of how a certain crisis situation emerged, and which societal actors can and cannot be trusted.

    “Conspiracy theories provide people with simplified answers, specifically to questions of how a certain crisis situation emerged, and which societal actors can and cannot be trusted.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Crisis situations are likely to have the psychological effect that people become uncertain or feel they cannot control their environment anymore.

    “Crisis situations are likely to have the psychological effect on people that they become uncertain or feel that they cannot control their environment anymore.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Many crisis situations took place, and almost invariably, these crisis situations led large groups of citizens to embrace conspiracy theories.

    “Thus, many crisis situations took place, and almost invariably, these crisis situations led large groups of citizens to embrace conspiracy theories.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Premisecitation

    There were two spikes in conspiratorial content in the letters, one shortly before 1900 and one during the late 1940s and early 1950s.

    “The first spike occurred shortly before the year 1900, at the height of the second industrial revolution—a period that was characterized by the rise of major companies, quick technological progress, and rapidly changing power structures.”
    • Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · plain
      “The second spike occurred during the late 1940s and the early 1950s—a period that marked the beginning of the Cold War.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Uscinski and Parent (2014)

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    It is often easy to connect societal crises to the purposeful misdeeds of hostile groups, making it likely that many citizens consider the possibility of secret conspiracy formation.

    “Moreover, it is often easy to connect societal crises to the purposeful misdeeds of hostile groups, making it likely that many citizens consider the possibility of secret conspiracy formation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Conspiracy theories that appear unconnected to a specific societal crisis still make assumptions of a powerful government that deceives citizens, and therefore originate from subjective perceptions of a nation being in crisis.

    “However, while these latter conspiracy theories do not emerge from an objectively “real” crisis, they do make assumptions of a powerful government that deceives citizens in a deliberate and highly ingenious fashion. Such conspiracy theories therefore still originate from subjective perceptions of a nation being in crisis.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The extent to which US citizens' published letters to the New York Times and Chicago Tribune contained conspiracy theories fluctuated but did not increase over time between 1890 and 2010, and if there ever has been an 'age of conspiracism,' it is not in the present decade.

    “But more interesting was the prevalence of conspiracy theories: The extent to which these letters contained conspiracy theories fluctuated but did not increase over time.”
    • Also stated in: § Are conspiracy theories unique to our modern time? · plain
      “The core conclusion that emerges from these data is that conspiracy theories have not increased over time, and if there ever has been an “age of conspiracism,” it is not in the present decade.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Uscinski and Parent (2014)

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Conspiracy theories spread around the time of the great fire of Rome asserting that Nero and his associates deliberately started the fire to rebuild Rome according to his own vision, and that Nero was singing while Rome was burning.

    “Around the same time, however, conspiracy theories started to spread, which asserted that Nero and his associates deliberately started the fire in order to rebuild Rome according to his own vision. In addition, these conspiracy theories stated that Nero was singing while Rome was burning (for a more elaborate description, see Brotherton, 2015).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Brotherton, 2015

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Conspiracy theories address these feelings by enabling precautionary actions to the alleged conspirators-leading to increased vigilance that may be useful in exposing, combating, or avoiding the conspiracy.

    “Conspiracy theories address these feelings by enabling precautionary actions to the alleged conspirators—leading to increased vigilance that may be useful in exposing, combating, or avoiding the conspiracy.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Possible cultural differences in conspiracy belief are likely attributable to variations in the extent to which cultures experience uncertainty and fear.

    “Furthermore, while no research has yet studied cultural differences in conspiracy belief, our line of reasoning suggests that possible cultural differences are likely to be attributable to variations in the extent to which cultures experience uncertainty and fear (e.g. low- vs high-trust cultures).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Because each generation typically faces societal crisis situations, this explains why conspiracy theorizing has been prevalent throughout history.

    “As each generation typically faces a range of societal crisis situations, such as revolutions, wars, economic recessions, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters, this would explain why conspiracy theorizing has been prevalent throughout history.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Across EU member states, political trust and satisfaction with democracy tend to be low but are not declining.

    “The results suggest that although across EU member states political trust and satisfaction tend to be low, they are not declining.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Andeweg (2014)

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Even back in the Roman era, there are prominent examples of conspiracy theories, typically connected to major crisis situations.

    “Even back in the Roman era, there are prominent examples of conspiracy theories, and these are typically connected to major crisis situations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Brotherton, 2015

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    A conspiracy theory helps people make sense of the world by specifying the causes of important events, which helps them predict and anticipate the future.

    “Put differently, a conspiracy theory helps people to make sense of the world by specifying the causes of important events, which further helps them predict, and anticipate, the future.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    People typically make sense of past events as lay historians who rarely base their conclusions on direct historical sources, and they transmit historical narratives based on imperfect memory and other imperfect sources such as folklore, novels, and films.

    “It has been noted that people typically make sense of past events as “lay historians” who—unlike professional historians—rarely base their conclusions on direct historical sources. Instead, lay historians transmit historical narratives to others based on their imperfect memory, as well as on other imperfect sources of information such as folklore, novels, films, and the like (see Klein, 2013).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Klein, 2013

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Few modern European citizens would endorse seventeenth-century witchcraft conspiracy beliefs today, although comparable witchcraft conspiracy theories are still common in parts of the world such as parts of Africa.

    “Nevertheless, it is a safe guess that few modern European citizens would endorse such beliefs today (although comparable witchcraft conspiracy theories are still common in other parts of the world, for example, parts of Africa; West and Sanders, 2003).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites West and Sanders, 2003

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The seventeenth-century witchcraft conspiracy theory in all likelihood emerged through similar processes as other conspiracy theories discussed in the article.

    “For instance, it was common for citizens to believe that many young women conspired as witches with the Devil back in the seventeenth century, and this conspiracy theory in all likelihood emerged through similar processes as other conspiracy theories discussed in this article.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The above-mentioned findings on uncertainty and conspiracy beliefs are correlational and do not reveal whether uncertainty causes conspiracy beliefs or vice versa.

    “The above-mentioned findings are correlational, and hence, these studies do not reveal whether uncertainty causes conspiracy beliefs, or vice versa.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Believing that the world is filled with evil conspiracies is likely to invoke a host of negative emotions, which may help explain why belief in one conspiracy theory stimulates belief in other conspiracy theories.

    “At the same time, believing that the world is filled with evil conspiracies is likely to invoke a host of negative emotions, which may help explain why belief in one conspiracy theory stimulates belief in other conspiracy theories (Goertzel, 1994; Wood et al., 2012).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Goertzel, 1994

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Wood et al., 2012

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Conspiracy theories are initially based on the emotional experiences associated with imminent crisis situations, but they may soon after stabilize into coherent narratives that are part of how people remember the past.

    “Be that as it may, our conclusion is that while conspiracy theories are initially based on the emotional experiences associated with imminent crisis situations, they may soon after stabilize into coherent narratives that are part of how people remember the past.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Conspiracy theories may originate through emotional processes of lacking control or feeling uncertain, but at a relatively fast pace they can become coherent narratives that shape people's representations of history.

    “Here, we propose that while conspiracy theories may originate through the emotional processes of lacking control or feeling uncertain, at a relatively fast pace they can become coherent narratives that shape people’s representations of history (see also Hilton and Liu, this issue).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hilton and Liu, this issue

      Not checked in the free run.

    • Rests on an assumption: Uncertainty stimulates a desire to make sense of one's social environment.
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Not all conspiracy theories become historical narratives; the plausibility that people accord to certain conspiracy theories can decrease over time as a function of new insights.

    “Not all conspiracy theories make history this way, and in fact, the plausibility that people accord to certain conspiracy theories can also decrease over time as a function of new insights.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Conspiracy theories summarize complex events into a simplified story typically involving a powerful enemy group that deliberately organizes and carries out an evil plan, making them ideally suited for cultural transmission because they are easily understood by lay people.

    “The feature of conspiracy theories that they summarize complex events into a simplified story—typically involving a powerful enemy group (i.e. the conspiracy) that deliberately organizes and carries out an evil plan— makes such theories ideally suited for cultural transmission as they are easily understood by lay people (see Bilewicz et al., this issue; Bruckmüller et al., this issue).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Bilewicz et al., this issue

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Bruckmüller et al., this issue

      Not checked in the free run.

31 of 31
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    People have a basic need to experience a certain level of control over their environment and to know what to expect from that environment.

    “Such experiences are threatening, as people have a basic need to experience a certain level of control over their environment and to know what to expect from that environment.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Feelings of control and certainty enable people to effectively navigate the world by successfully seizing on opportunities, avoiding threats, and making good choices that contribute constructively to one's wellbeing.

    “Feelings of control and certainty enable people to effectively navigate the world by successfully seizing on opportunities, avoiding threats, and making good choices that contribute constructively to one’s wellbeing.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Societal crisis situations often arouse feelings of fear, uncertainty, or being out of control in people.

    “it is likely that societal crisis situations often arouse such feelings in people.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Uncertainty stimulates a desire to make sense of one's social environment.

    “The main underlying process for this connection is that uncertainty stimulates a desire to make sense of one’s social environment.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    After the first few years following the JFK assassination, the uncertainty and fear caused by the assassination had dissipated among the public.

    “It stands to reason that, after these first few years, the uncertainty and fear that were caused by the Kennedy assassination had dissipated among the public.”
5 of 5

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Speculation and misinformation about JFK's death can continue to serve as a gateway to further conspiratorial thinking, providing a vocabulary and template applicable in other times of societal unrest and uncertainty.

    “speculation and misinformation about his death can continue to serve as a gateway to further conspiratorial thinking, also providing a vocabulary and template to be easily applied in other times of societal unrest and uncertainty (van Prooijen & Douglas, 2017).”

    From "Just Asking Questions": Doing Our Own Research on Conspiratorial Ideation by Generative AI Chatbots (2026) · cites this paper as van Prooijen & Douglas, 2017

    In “Implications for historical narratives” (page unavailable), the paper uses JFK assassination theories to illustrate how conspiracy narratives can persist and be transmitted across generations. It does not say that speculation about JFK’s death serves as a gateway to further conspiratorial thinking or supplies a template that people apply to later periods of unrest. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Authors
van Prooijen, J.-W., & Douglas, K. M.
Affiliations
  • VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands; The Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement, The Netherlands
  • University of Kent (GB)
Venue
Memory Studies
Published
2017-06-29
Volume
10
Issue
3
Pages
323-333
ISSN
  • 1750-6980 (ISSN-L)
  • 1750-6999
OpenAlex
W2601886268
Cited by
764
References
49
Citations by year
2026: 92 · 2025: 116 · 2024: 95 · 2023: 94 · 2022: 164 · 2021: 132 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 2
FWCI
49.58
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Memory Studies (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • Kent Academic Repository (University of Kent) (submittedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders
European Commission
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Memory, History, Trauma, Identity
Keywords
conspiracy theories, social crisis, fear, uncertainty, sensemaking, historical narratives, cultural transmission, power structures

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