Hindsight Bias
Abstract
Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events’ objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one’s own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one’s judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias.
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Measures in accordance with (b) seem out of place because they introduce a concrete psychological aspect that sticks out from more technical and operational aspects, especially since automation bias is just one of many relevant biases, heuristics, and psychological phenomena.
“Measures in accordance with (b), which are intended to maintain an awareness of the automation bias, seem out of place: it introduces a concrete psychological aspect that sticks out from the more technical and operational aspects outlined in the other provisions, especially considering that automation bias is just one of many relevant biases (e.g., hindsight bias, confidence bias [36, 66]), heuris”
From On the Quest for Effectiveness in Human Oversight: Interdisciplinary Perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as [66]
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“This finding is particularly important in consideration of the fact that hindsight bias is a very robust and pervasive error (Guilbault et al., 2004; Roese & Vohs, 2012), for which it may be assumed that it is shared among all authors.”
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Lockhart, J. J., & Satya‐Murti, S. (2017) · Journal of Forensic Sciences · doi:10.1111/1556-4029.13453 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
The science of reason : a festschrift for Jonathan St. B.T. Evans
Manktelow, K., Over, D., & Elqayam, S. (2010) · doi:10.4324/9780203847121 · Cited by 24
Risk assessment in clinical practice: a framework for decision-making in real-world complex systems
Nathan, R., & Bhandari, S. (2022) · BJ Psych Advances · doi:10.1192/bja.2022.67 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“…back from the outcome makes the assessor susceptible to hindsight bias, which leads to an over-estimation of the foreseeability of the outcome (Roese 2012) and that the resulting investigations can contribute to a culture in which clinicians feel that they are liable to be blamed for…”
BackgroundLockhart, K. L., Goddu, M. K., Smith, E. D., & Keil, F. C. (2015) · Child Development · doi:10.1111/cdev.12469 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“…that both the hindsight bias and curse of knowledge continue in diminished forms throughout the life span (Bernstein, Erdfelder, Meltzoff, Peria, & Loftus, 2011; Roese & Vohs, 2012), school-age children might also be expected to have greater challenges distinguishing direct from indirect knowledge.”
BackgroundA Primer on the Psychology of Cognitive Bias
MacLean, C. L., & Dror, I. (2016) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-802460-7.00001-2 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Landslide risk assessment: the challenge of communicating uncertainty to decision-makers
Lee, E. M. (2015) · Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology · doi:10.1144/qjegh2015-066 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“…biased towards that particular outcome and potentially underestimate the uncertainty associated with other outcomes that might have been possible (i.e. ‘hindsight bias’, when an assessor believes that an event is more predictable after it occurs than it was before it happened; Roese & Vohs 2012).”
BackgroundA Framework for Case-Based Learning in Prehospital Medicine: The London's Air Ambulance Experience.
Carenzo, L., Baker, C., Jones, S., & Hurst, T. (2022) · Air Medical Journal · doi:10.1016/j.amj.2022.09.005 · Cited by 20
Dark Motives and Elective Use of Brainteaser Interview Questions
Highhouse, S., Nye, C. D., & Zhang, D. C. (2018) · Applied Psychology · doi:10.1111/apps.12163 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
The Effects of Expertise on the Hindsight Bias
Knoll, M. A. Z. M. (2017) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.1950 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“consequences for novices and experts alike (e.g., Arkes et al., 1981; Berlin, 2000; Dawson et al., 1988; Leary, 1982).”
BackgroundInfluentialBanerji, J., Kundu, K., & Alam, P. A. (2022) · Business Perspectives and Research · doi:10.1177/22785337221098287 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Ackerman, R., Bernstein, D. M., & Kumar, R. (2020) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/s13421-020-01012-w · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Looking Backward and Forward on Hindsight Bias
Bernstein, D., Aßfalg, A., Kumar, R., & Ackerman, R. (2016) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199336746.013.7 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“To understand the cognitive processes that underlie hindsight bias, researchers have proposed that there are three distinct, hierarchically organized components of hindsight bias (see Blank, Nestler, von Collani, & Fischer, 2008; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
BackgroundInfluentialCognitive and affective appraisal of online impulse buying: a multi-mediation approach
Chatterjee, R. S., Hameed, I., & Cham, T. (2024) · Journal of Marketing Analytics · doi:10.1057/s41270-024-00338-7 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“To improve comprehension of the measurement items, the instruments were pre-tested by three faculty members and three subject matter experts to assess the content and face validity (Roese and Vohs 2012).”
Cognitive bias in workplace investigation: Problems, perspectives and proposed solutions
MacLean, C. L. (2022) · Applied Ergonomics · doi:10.1016/j.apergo.2022.103860 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Equal egocentric bias in school-aged children with and without autism spectrum disorders
Begeer, S., Bernstein, D. M., Aßfalg, A., Azdad, H., Glasbergen, T., Wierda, M., & Koot, H. M. (2015) · Journal of Experimental Child Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jecp.2015.10.018 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“Hindsight bias refers to the phenomenon that, after learning an outcome, people find it difficult to judge a naive perspective that lacks this outcome knowledge (Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
BackgroundDissolving the Puzzle of Resultant Moral Luck
Levy, N. (2015) · Review of Philosophy and Psychology · doi:10.1007/s13164-015-0249-0 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Judicial Decisionmaking: A Behavioral Perspective
Teichman, D., & Zamir, E. (2013) · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199945474.013.0026 · Cited by 18
Are Survivors of Sexual Assault Blamed More Than Victims of Other Crimes?
Reich, C. M., Pegel, G., & Johnson, A. B. (2021) · Journal of Interpersonal Violence · doi:10.1177/08862605211037423 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“…current and past findings (Felson & Palmore, 2018) is that victim blaming has a common general psychological process (e.g., hindsight bias and just world beliefs; Furnham, 2003; Roese & Vohs, 2012), regardless of victimization type, rather than a basis in crime-specific stereotypes or assumptions.”
BackgroundCatellani, P., Bertolotti, M., Vagni, M., & Pajardi, D. (2020) · Applied Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1002/acp.3720 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“These findings are in line with research on other cognitive biases, such as the outcome bias (Baron & Hershey, 1988; Mazzocco et al., 2004) or the hindsight bias (Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Result“I’m Trying to Stop Things Before They Happen”: Carers’ Contributions to Patient Safety in Hospitals
Merner, B., Hill, S., & Taylor, M. (2019) · Qualitative Health Research · doi:10.1177/1049732319841021 · Cited by 17
Overclaiming shares processes with the hindsight bias
Müller, S., & Moshagen, M. (2018) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2018.06.035 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Investigating the role of the faculty advisor in doctoral students’ career trajectories
German, K. T., Sweeny, K. M., & Robbins, M. L. (2018) · Professional Development in Education · doi:10.1080/19415257.2018.1511454 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“…evaluations of unrelated targets; Nisbett and Wilson 1977) or hindsight bias (i.e. the inclination to see an outcome as having been predictable; Roese and Vohs 2012) may have led graduates who accepted tenure-track positions to reflect more favorably upon their mentoring experiences due to…”
BackgroundKhalil, E. L. (2017) · Philosophy · doi:10.1017/s003181911700033x · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Adaptive compression as a unifying framework for episodic and semantic memory
Nagy, D., Orbán, G., & Wu, C. M. (2025) · Nature Reviews Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44159-025-00458-6 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
“Conversely, updating the model after a new experience (such as in post-event misinformation 98 or hindsight bias 99 ) changes the decoder and therefore alters how past experiences are reconstructed 23 , potentially also explaining associative memory errors 100 .”
Failures in the Loop: Human Leadership in AI-Based Decision-Making
Michael, K., Schoenherr, J. R., & Vogel, K. M. (2024) · IEEE Transactions on Technology and Society · doi:10.1109/tts.2024.3378587 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study
Pohl, R., Bayen, U., Arnold, N. R., Auer, T., & Martin, C. (2018) · Journal of Cognition and Development · doi:10.1080/15248372.2018.1476356 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“…bias, which has been investigated extensively and mainly with young adults (for overviews, see Bernstein, Aßfalg, Kumar, & Ackerman, 2016; Blank, Musch, & Pohl, 2007; Guilbault, Bryant, Brockway, & Posavac, 2004; Hoffrage & Pohl, 2003; Pezzo, 2011; Pohl & Erdfelder, 2017; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
- Authors
- Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Venue
- Perspectives on Psychological Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2012-09
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 411-426
- ISSN
- 1745-6916 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-6924
- OpenAlex
- W4211165067
- Cited by
- 457
- References
- 186
- Citations by year
- 2026: 35 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 54 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 9.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Perspectives on Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Keywords
- hindsight bias, memory distortion, perceived predictability, metacognition, overconfidence, causal explanation, sensemaking, alternative explanations, data visualization, bias reduction interventions
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