Cited by 457Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsMemory Processes and InfluencesClinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

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Hindsight Bias

Roese, Neal J., Vohs, Kathleen D.·2012·Perspectives on Psychological Science

DOI 10.1177/1745691612454303

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Abstract

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events’ objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one’s own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one’s judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias.

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Depressive Symptoms and Cognitions of Foreseeability and Inevitability of Personal Events During the Covid‐19 Pandemic
Rothfeld, L., Bayen, U. J., & Schaper, M. L. (2026) · Applied Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1002/acp.70175
The relationship between shame, rumination, self-compassion, and symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder and major depressive disorder
Richter, S. G., Brenner, L. H., & Ghaznavi, S. (2026) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2026.121393
That’s not how I recall it! (The surprising plasticity of long-term memory)
Burnett, D. J. (2026) · The Cognitive Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.53841/bpscog.2026.1.11.49
Perceiving COVID-19 as a Black Swan: the role of negative emotions, family tension, and government decisions’ support
Vermeulen, N. (2026) · Current Psychology · doi:10.1007/s12144-025-08632-y
“Consequently, individuals who felt more anger were more likely to reinterpret the crisis as being both foreseeable and preventable, which is a pattern consistent with hindsight bias (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Феномен знания задним числом в контексте русского консервативного и прогрессивного мышления (Александр Тургенев, Дмитрий Глуховский)
Szubin, R. (2025) · Rusycystyczne Studia Literaturoznawcze · doi:10.31261/rsl.2025.35.02
Trauma reflections: an interpretive phenomenological analysis of pellet-gun victims' experiences in Kashmir
Nazam, F., & Munawar, I. (2025) · Cogent Mental Health · doi:10.1080/28324765.2025.2561668
“Hindsight bias occurs when individuals believe an event was predictable after learning its outcome, leading them to overestimate their ability to foresee and prevent it (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Pre-service teachers’ adjustment of teaching approaches after observing learners’ success or failure responses in scenario-based settings
Kinda, S. (2025) · The Educational and Developmental Psychologist · doi:10.1080/20590776.2025.2526337
“In Study 1, participants rated the task as less difficult after observing correct responses, which aligns with the hypothesis and supports prior research findings (Birch, 2005; Camerer et al., 1989; Chi et al., 2004; Hinds, 1999; Nickerson, 1999; Nückles et al., 2005; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Lay views of retribution and risk in the child protection context: implications for restorative practice
Politis, S., Sivasubramaniam, D., Agius, E. J., Gogan, T., & Papalia, N. (2025) · Psychology, Crime & Law · doi:10.1080/1068316x.2025.2559026
A PPP Projects Valuation: Real Options, Competition and Anchoring Bias
Anyebe, D., Bari, A. D., Santoro, D., & Villani, G. (2025) · Computational Economics · doi:10.1007/s10614-025-11109-6
“Hindsight bias arises when individuals perceive past events as more predictable than they were (Roese & Vohs, 2012 ).”
From crisis to global reform? Delphi insights on the feasibility of an international clearing union
Patomäki, H. (2025) · Journal of post Keynesian economics · doi:10.1080/01603477.2025.2544048
“People tend to extrapolate from current trends and developments and commit the hindsight bias (when we know what has already happened or is happening, we start to see it as more inevitable than it was; Tetlock 1999; Pohl 2004).”
Letter Re: Orbital exenteration in the management of orbital and periorbital tumors: Factors related to treatment outcome.
Karamitros, G., Grant, M. P., & Lamaris, G. (2025) · Journal of Plastic, Reconstructive & Aesthetic Surgery · doi:10.1016/j.bjps.2025.05.046
Young children’s monitoring of learning by self or other
Pillow, B. H., Arterberry, M., & Cleary, S. (2025) · Metacognition and Learning · doi:10.1007/s11409-025-09438-w
“For example, once adults learn the outcome of an event, they often view the outcome as more predictable than they did before the event occurred (Bernstein et al., 2007; Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
How Causal Focus and Specificity in Risk Factor Disclosures Jointly Affect Investor Judgments
Yoo, G.-S., & Tan, H. (2025) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2023.00445
People calibrate future expectations to past performance when predicting transparently random events
Roberts, R., Hastie, R., & Todorov, A. (2025) · PNAS Nexus · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf237
“For example, under these conditions people tend to view past events as more predictable than they were in reality (13, 14), to attribute successes to their own efforts and failure to factors beyond their control ( 15, 16), and to judge decisions based on the quality of the outcome rather than on…”
Relation, Exploitation, or Function? Developing a Measurement Scale and Assessing Perceptions of Non-Profit/Business Partnerships
Basil, D., Runte, M., Werle, C. O. C., & Chernishenko, J. (2025) · Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly · doi:10.1177/08997640251348653
“Unaware the outcome influenced their judgment, they reframe their perception of the past to fit the present (Hawkins & Hastie, 1990; Roese & Vohs, 2012; Shachar & Eckstein, 2007).”
Enhancing Decision-Making in Complex Environments: A Multi-Expert Decision System and Simulation-Driven Efficiency Measurement Approach
Chen, H., & Xu, C.-X. (2025) · Group Decision and Negotiation · doi:10.1007/s10726-025-09937-w
“Additionally, the belief that appropriate weight allocation guarantees success can lead to hindsight bias (Louie 1999; Roese and Vohs 2012).”
Deeply navigating among cross-cultural issues makes you a better expert
Melinder, A., Lekva, K. B., & Fosse, H. R. (2025) · Children and youth services review · doi:10.1016/j.childyouth.2025.108501
“Publication bias”, or the tendency to publish studies with positive results in medicine: aurthors’ point of view
Navasardyan, A. R., Lobastov, K. V., Marapov, D. I., Makarova, D. D., Mikaelyan, M. V., Mareev, Y. V., Drapkina, O. M., & Martsevich, S. Y. (2025) · Medical Technologies Assessment and Choice · doi:10.17116/medtech20254702158
Does Knowledge of Clinical Case Outcome Influence Supervisor Evaluation of Resident Clinical Reasoning?
van Sassen, C., Mamede, S., van den Broek, W. W., Bindels, P., & Zwaan, L. (2025) · Academic Medicine · doi:10.1097/acm.0000000000006122 · Cited by 2
Response to: Letter Re: "Orbital exenteration in the management of orbital and periorbital tumours: factors related to treatment outcome." Methodological blind spots in orbital exenteration research: The overlooked role of reconstruction. Surgical outcomes and stratification.
Niinimäki, P., Vuola, J., Kivelä, T., Mäkitie, A., & Uusitalo, M. (2025) · Journal of Plastic, Reconstructive & Aesthetic Surgery · doi:10.1016/j.bjps.2025.06.022
Mind and Money: The Impact of Cognitive Biases on Investor’s Decision-Making
Sakeerthi, S. (2025) · Journal of Information Systems Engineering & Management · doi:10.52783/jisem.v10i42s.8199 · Cited by 1
“Hindsight bias, on the other hand, is “ the tendency to overestimate the predictability of future events ” , once their outcomes are known (Roese &Vohs, 2012).”
When authority biases the holder: the case of the Costa Concordia disaster
Mastrogiorgio, A., Nauta, P. D., Palumbo, R., & Leccese, E. (2025) · Management Decision · doi:10.1108/md-06-2024-1258
Mitigating visual hindsight bias in radiology: can education alter perceptual decision making?
Chen, J., Reed, W. M., & Gandomkar, Z. (2025) · Medical Imaging · doi:10.1117/12.3048627
Inclusion of brand in self predicts future use
Ross, B. J., Stein, R., Slepian, M., Sin, A. Y., Montgomery, R. M., & Rutchick, A. M. (2024) · Journal of Marketing Analytics · doi:10.1057/s41270-024-00365-4
“…they reflect consumers’ habits, can contribute to predictions of future behavior (Ji and Wood 2007), but such reports may not be accurate (see the robust literature demonstrating biases and errors in memory about previous choices; Baron and Hershey, 1988; Mather et al. 2000; Roese and Vohs 2012).”
Algorithmic Transparency in Forecasting Support Systems
Feddersen, L., & Cleophas, C. (2024) · Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences · doi:10.24251/hicss.2026.172
“An underlying cause of noise modeling is hindsight bias, where decision-makers perceive past events as more predictable than they were (Roese and Vohs, 2012).”
Frailties of Memory: Implications for Therapists Treating Gender Dysphoric Youth
Kulatunga-Moruzi, C., & Lawler, J. (2024) · Journal of Sex & Marital Therapy · doi:10.1080/0092623x.2024.2406854
“As Roese and Vohs (2012) point out, when attention is applied solely to one causal explanation, negating other potential explanations, we become entrenched in our convictions.”
Mortality Review Committee: Understanding Inpatient and 30-Day Mortality at a Comprehensive Cancer Center
Soucise, A., Shekher, R., Faller, J., Keppel, D., Anthony, G., Dexter, E. U., & Chowdhry, V. K. (2024) · Journal of Palliative Medicine · doi:10.1089/jpm.2024.0158 · Cited by 1
“23 We also recognize hindsight bias 24 can play a role in our evaluation of cases ( “ Monday Morning Quarterback ” ).”
Preserved memory for decisions across adulthood
Taylor, M. K., Samanez-Larkin, G. R., & Marsh, E. J. (2024) · Aging Neuropsychology and Cognition · doi:10.1080/13825585.2024.2398790
“…decisions are not always remembered accurately; for example, both younger and older adults are susceptible to the hindsight bias and misremember their earlier judgments, believing they “knew it all along” even though they had just learned the answer (Bernstein et al., 2011; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Las decisiones judiciales en órganos colegiados y el sesgo de retrospectiva en grupos
Rodríguez, N. V. (2024) · Vniversitas · doi:10.11144/javeriana.vj73.djoc
Response to: Histological type, invasive mediastinal staging, and prognosis in patients with lung cancer
Jeon, Y., Kim, H., Hwang, S.-S., & Kim, J. (2024) · EClinicalMedicine · doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102644
Online Criticism of Parents After Child Accidents: A Reflexive Thematic Analysis
Toews, K., Cummings, J. A., McLean, M., & Knowles, L. A. (2024) · The Qualitative Report · doi:10.46743/2160-3715/2024.6167
“One possible explanation for this finding is through the hindsight bias (Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
Reviviendo Río Piedras
Rosas, A. A. G., Lladó, G. M. R., & Durán, L. E. S. (2024) · [in]genios revista de investigación y labor creativa · doi:10.54114/ingeniosv10i2.14406
‘I knew all along’: making sense of post-self-deception judgments
Orlandi, M. (2024) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-024-04563-6
“Lastly, foreseeability captures “the feeling that ‘I knew it all along,’” in the belief that an event could have been easily predicted (Roese & Vohs, 2012, p. 413).”
Influential
Risk Preferences in the Delegation Process
Schwaninger, M. C., Mühlböck, M., & Sauermann, J. (2023) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-023-09908-4
“The so-called outcome bias (Baron & Hershey, 1988), closely related to the better-known hindsight bias (Roese & Vohs, 2012), suggests that voters tend to deduce ‘good’ decisions from ‘good’ outcomes and ‘bad’ decisions from ‘bad’ outcomes.”
Cognitivism and the argument from evidence non-responsiveness*
Eriksson, J., & Tiozzo, M. (2023) · Ethical Theory and Moral Practice · doi:10.1007/s10677-023-10424-x
“Indeed, there is even a name for the phenomenon: hindsight bias (Roese and Vohs 2012).”
The Hindsight Bias and Its Applications
Gao, L.-N. (2023) · Arts, Culture and Language · doi:10.61173/w3rt3985
I “knew” they wouldn’t last: Hindsight bias in judgments of a dating couple
Bleske-Rechek, A. L., Gunseor, M. M., & Nguyen, K. (2023) · Social Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.32872/spb.9967
Behavioural Finance, Overconfidence and Chinese Investors
Zhao, Y. (2022) · BCP Business & Management · doi:10.54691/bcpbm.v32i.2882
“Hindsight bias is the tendency to see what has happened as relatively inevitable and obvious, without realising that the review of the outcome will influence people's judgement (Roese and Vohs, 2012).”
Background
Listen to Users, but Only 85% of the Time: How Black Swans Can Save Innovation in a Data-Driven WorldPreprint
Speicher, M. (2022) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2208.05347
The effectiveness of a training program based on holistic thinking in improving life satisfaction among a sample of Mu'tah University students
Al-Tarawneh, A. (2022) · Dirasat Human and Social Sciences · doi:10.35516/hum.v49i2.1779
Unintentional Inception: When a Premium Is Offered to Unintentional Creations
Fulmer, A. G., & Reich, T. (2021) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/01461672211063750
Shared Non-responsibility in International Law? Defences and the Responsibility of Co-perpetrators and Accessories in the Guiding Principles: Afterword
Paddeu, F. I. (2021) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3770705
Categorical judgments do not modify sensory information in working memory
Luu, L., & Stocker, A. (2020) · bioRxiv · doi:10.1101/2020.06.15.152223
How Will the Occupation End? A Real-World Exploration of Hindsight Bias and Retroactive Pessimism Concerning Anti-Government Protests in Bulgaria
Rachev, N. R., & Petrova, M. (2019) · American Journal of Psychology · doi:10.31219/osf.io/wbk86
Shoot the Horse and Build a Better Barn Door: Exploring the Potential for a Superforecasting Methodology to Strengthen the DHS Leadership Selection ProcessPreprint
Dorman, R. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3732518
Die Arbeitsweise der Forschung zu Zeiten von Digitalisierung und Reproduzierbarkeitskrise: Neue Methoden, alte Probleme
Sauer, S., & Sülzenbrück, S. (2018) · Arbeitswelten der Zukunft · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-23397-6_11
The role of media in community resilience: Hindsight bias in media narratives after the 2014 Genoa flood
Bracco, F., Modafferi, C., & Ferraris, L. (2018) · Geopolitical, Social Security and Freedom Journal · doi:10.2478/gssfj-2018-0007
“These videos were selected because they reference the Genoa flood that occurred on 9 October 2014.3 The Roese and Vohs (2012) framework was adopted in order to identify sentences that presented the hindsight bias.”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Tying Innovation to Strategy
Wehde, M. (2018) · 2018 IEEE Technology and Engineering Management Conference (TEMSCON) · doi:10.1109/temscon.2018.8488453
“We all suffer to some extent from hindsight bias—which involves misremembering earlier opinions or judgements [7].”
Background
New opportunities for electric car adoption: the case of range myths, new forms of subsidies, and social norms
Bobeth, S., & Matthies, E. (2017) · Energy Efficiency · doi:10.1007/s12053-017-9586-4 · Cited by 31
El once de septiembre, un ataque a los límites del pensamiento
Patalano, R. (2017) · doi:10.1080/2057410x.2017.1665376
Reprint of: Equal egocentric bias in school-aged children with and without autism spectrum disorders
Begeer, S., Bernstein, D. M., Aßfalg, A., Azdad, H., Glasbergen, T., Wierda, M., & Koot, H. M. (2016) · Journal of Experimental Child Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jecp.2016.05.017 · Cited by 2
“Hindsight bias refers to the phenomenon that, after learning an outcome, people find it difficult to judge a naive perspective that lacks this outcome knowledge (Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
Muslims Love Jesus, Too? Corrective Information Alters Prejudices Against Islam
Moritz, S., Göritz, A., Kühn, S., Schneider, B. C., Krieger, E., Röhlinger, J., & Zimmerer, S. (2016) · Pastoral Psychology · doi:10.1007/s11089-016-0706-4
“Unlike most other studies on hindsight bias (Bernstein et al. 2011; Pohl 2004), we analyzed changes in opinion and not in knowledge.”
Result
Bringing the First Image of Nuclear Politics Back in: Plädoyer für eine verstärkte Einbeziehung des Individuums in die theoretische Analyse der Proliferation von Kernwaffen
Schneider, J. (2014) · Zeitschrift für Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik · doi:10.1007/s12399-014-0440-x
The influence of complexity on the final project performance from students’ perspectives
Chandra, H., & Hartono, B. (2025) · AIP Conference Proceedings · doi:10.1063/5.0227800
Nudges jako narzędzia behawioralnej polityki publicznej i ich akceptowanie w Polsce
Miłaszewicz, D. (2023) · Rozprawy i Studia · doi:10.18276/978-83-7972-667-7
Hindsight Bias: Why We Think We Are Good Predictors Even Though We Are Not
Hofmann, A. (2022) · The Ten Commandments of Risk Leadership · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-88797-1_11
Persönlichkeit und soziale Kompetenz von Personen in Führungsfunktionen – Eine psychologische Analyse am Beispiel US-amerikanischer Präsidenten
Kranefeld, I., Genau, H. A., & Blickle, G. (2021) · Persönlichkeit und weltpolitische Gestaltung · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-32348-6_5
How Do I Know I Learned Something? Reflecting on Learning by Using Video-Recorded Interviews to Battle Hindsight (“I-Knew-It-All-Along”) Bias
Thanheiser, E. (2021) · Advances in STEM Education · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-68956-8_8
Outcome Bias
Lee, X.-Q. (2021) · Decision Making in Emergency Medicine · doi:10.1007/978-981-16-0143-9_41

Authors: Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D.
Affiliations: Northwestern University (US)
University of Minnesota (US)
ORCID: Roese, Neal J.
Vohs, Kathleen D.
Venue: Perspectives on Psychological Science
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2012-09
Volume: 7
Issue: 5
Pages: 411-426
ISSN: 1745-6916 (ISSN-L)
1745-6924
DOI: 10.1177/1745691612454303
OpenAlex: W4211165067
Cited by: 457
References: 186
Citations by year: 2026: 35 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 54 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 2
FWCI: 9.21
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations: Perspectives on Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Keywords: hindsight bias, memory distortion, perceived predictability, metacognition, overconfidence, causal explanation, sensemaking, alternative explanations, data visualization, bias reduction interventions

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