The DOI matches its Crossref record; 11 of the 11 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Hindsight Bias
Abstract
Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events’ objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one’s own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one’s judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias.
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“Measures in accordance with (b), which are intended to maintain an awareness of the automation bias, seem out of place: it introduces a concrete psychological aspect that sticks out from the more technical and operational aspects outlined in the other provisions, especially considering that automation bias is just one of many relevant biases (e.g., hindsight bias, confidence bias [36, 66]), heuris”
From On the Quest for Effectiveness in Human Oversight: Interdisciplinary Perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as [66]
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“Research on hindsight bias, for example, reveals that people fail to estimate what they would have thought if they hadn’t known a piece of information [7, 9, 17, 33].”
What if publication bias is the rule and net carbon loss from priming the exception?
Michel, J., Brostaux, Y., Longdoz, B., Vanderschuren, H., & Delaplace, P. (2025) · SOIL · doi:10.5194/soil-11-755-2025 · Cited by 4
Sandilya, J., & Goswami, K. (2025) · Environmental Development · doi:10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101295 · Cited by 4
Biocultural evolution, narratives, and emerging cultures of sustainability
Glynn, P. D., Cockerill, K., HELGESON, J. F., Newman, G., Glynn, S. A., & White, P. (2025) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-025-10200-5 · Cited by 6
“Counterfactual thought is used (Roese 1994; Van Hoeck 2015; Byrne 2016; Roese and Epstude 2017), invariably narrowed and simplified through emotional valence attributions (Lebrecht et al. 2012), affective cognition (Ong et al. 2019), hindsight bias (Roese and Vohs 2012) and other BBHV.”
Liu, Y., Jesus, E. D., Goldbach, M. M., Krouse, R. S., Guerra, C. E., Rendle, K. A. S., Cadet, T. J., Allison, K. C., & Tchou, J. C. (2024) · Supportive Care in Cancer · doi:10.1007/s00520-024-08999-x · Cited by 2
“In addition, interviewee responses were subjected to hindsight bias [20].”
Individual differences and counterfactual thinking
Gambetti, E., Zucchelli, M. M., & Nori, R. (2024) · Journal of Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1080/20445911.2024.2398787 · Cited by 3
“…and intentionality judgments was partially mediated by the perceived defendant’s predictability of the negative outcomes, in line with research on cognitive biases, such as the outcome bias (Baron & Hershey, 1988; Mazzocco et al., 2004) or the hindsight bias (e.g. Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Requena, J. F. B. (2024) · Ius Et Veritas · doi:10.18800/iusetveritas.202401.002 · Cited by 3
Greene, C. M., Levine, L. J., Loftus, E., & Murphy, G. (2023) · Applied Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1002/acp.4099 · Cited by 3
Memory load of information encoded amplifies the magnitude of hindsight bias
Kaida, K., & Kaida, N. (2023) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0283969 · Cited by 3
But did they get it “right”? Deadly force, body-worn camera footage, and hindsight bias
Roche, S. P., Fenimore, D. M., & Taylor, P. L. (2022) · Policing: An International Journal · doi:10.1108/pijpsm-09-2021-0126 · Cited by 3
Taking a naïve other's perspective to debias the hindsight bias: Did it backfire?
Son, L., Hong, S.-S., Han, L., Lee, Y., & Kim, T. H. (2021) · New Ideas in Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.newideapsych.2021.100867 · Cited by 3
Investigating Financial Biases that Can Increase Impact on Paying Bills and Saving
Delgadillo, L. (2021) · Journal of Financial Therapy · doi:10.4148/1944-9771.1267 · Cited by 3
“Roese and Vohs (2012) have studied different levels of hindsight bias.”
September 11th, an attack at the limits of thought
Patalano, R. (2017) · The International journal of psycho-analysis · doi:10.1111/1745-8315.12579 · Cited by 3
Lopez, M. L. (2017) · International Journal of Evidence Based Coaching and Mentoring · doi:10.1177/174183051701500105 · Cited by 3
“Reasons cited were the review of personal areas of coaching needs, progress, exercises, and assessment material from participants’ past coaching programme prior to the study to reduce hind-sight issues (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
BackgroundAcosta, I., & Acosta, A. S. (2016) · doi:10.18843/rwjasc/v7i4/01 · Cited by 3
“Acording to Roese and Vohs (2012) hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known.”
BackgroundAre We Prepared for the Next Disaster? Evidence from Ice Storm
Asgary, A., Vaezi, A., & Azimi, N. (2021) · International Journal of Disaster Management/International journal of disaster management/Smong News · doi:10.24815/ijdm.v4i2.21183 · Cited by 3
Vanderheiden, E., & Mayer, C. (2020) · Mistakes, Errors and Failures across Cultures · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-35574-6_1 · Cited by 3
Cognitive biases in the legal field: A meeting place of legal and behavioral science
Mojašević, A. S., & Nikolić, L. (2018) · Zbornik radova Pravnog fakulteta Nis · doi:10.5937/zrpfni1879253m · Cited by 6
The Last Thing on Your Mind: Recall Bias in EU Income Measurement
Menyhért, B. (2025) · The Review of Income and Wealth · doi:10.1111/roiw.70030 · Cited by 2
Rethinking Regret: Reappraisal Tendencies Buffer Regret for ICU Surrogates Following Patient Death
Pignatiello, G. A., Tuschman, P., Griggs, S. A., Schiltz, N. K., Hoffer, A., & Hickman, R. L. (2025) · Western Journal of Nursing Research · doi:10.1177/01939459251344205 · Cited by 2
“19,20 Consistent with regret’s theoretical underpinnings, these biases concentrate on the gap between what occurred and what might have been, which may further intensify their negative appraisal of the decision.”
Expectations and Outcomes of First-year University Students in English Language Learning
Lengálová, A., & Semotamová, J. (2025) · International Journal of Instruction · doi:10.29333/iji.2025.18223a · Cited by 2
“One contributing factor is hindsight bias, wherein memory distortion and the subjective nature of foreseeability, centred on beliefs about one’s own knowledge and ability, play a critical role (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Causation, Norms, and Cognitive Bias.
Güver, L., & Kneer, M. (2025) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2025.106105 · Cited by 2
“…(Kamin & Rachlinski, 1995; Margoni & Surian, 2022; Kneer & Skocze ´ n, 2023; Margoni & Brown, 2023; Rachlinski, 1998, 2000; for a review, see Roese & Vohs, 2012), we presented participants with both ex ante (outcome information not yet available) and ex post (outcome information…”
Brimbal, L., Meissner, C. A., Kleinman, S. M., Martinez, K. D., Doyle, M. K., Quinby, E. A., Perry, A. D., & Mindthoff, A. (2025) · Journal of Criminal Psychology · doi:10.1108/jcp-12-2024-0132 · Cited by 2
Shirowzhan, H., & Fakhari, H. (2024) · Managerial Auditing Journal · doi:10.1108/maj-04-2024-4317 · Cited by 12
Millan, P. D., Kleiman, A., Friedman, J., Dunn, L. K., Gui, J. L., Bechtel, A. J., Collins, S., Huffmyer, J. L., Dwivedi, P., Wolpaw, J. T., et al. (2024) · Journal of clinical anesthesia · doi:10.1016/j.jclinane.2024.111549 · Cited by 2
Kinda, S. (2022) · The Japanese Journal of Educational Psychology · doi:10.5926/jjep.70.333 · Cited by 6
The role of perceptual difficulty in visual hindsight bias for emotional faces
Burgess, E., & Lien, M.-C. (2022) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-022-02219-5 · Cited by 2
“This is a robust cognitive error that has been largely observed using almanac questions, real-world events, political election outcomes, and natural disasters (e.g., Bryant & Guilbault, 2002; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
BackgroundInvestigação de homicídio, indiciamento e a tomada de decisão de delegados
de Sousa, D. V. L., & Roazzi, A. (2022) · Revista Brasileira de Ciências Policiais · doi:10.31412/rbcp.v13i10.999 · Cited by 2
“Da mesma forma, o viés retrospectivo ( hindsight bias ) é uma crença de que os eventos passados eram mais facilmente previsíveis do que realmente eram (ROESE, VOHS, 2012).”
Investigating false memories among “winners” and “losers” in the prisoner’s dilemma
Greene, C. M., Donnelly, O., Garvin, C., & Murphy, G. (2022) · Memory · doi:10.1080/09658211.2022.2115515 · Cited by 2
“Studies of hindsight bias show that judgements about past events are influenced by our knowledge of the outcome (Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012) and that this in turn is moderated by the valence of the outcome—that is, whether the individual views the event as having been positive or negative…”
BackgroundEvaluation of Biases in Construction Project Dispute Resolution: Case Study
Tayeh, B. A., Alaloul, W., Alkurdi, M. H., Aisheh, Y. I. A., & Musarat, M. A. (2022) · Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction · doi:10.1061/(asce)la.1943-4170.0000525 · Cited by 2
Moşteanu, N. (2021) · Journal of Digital Art & Humanities · doi:10.33847/2712-8148.2.2_3 · Cited by 2
Moral Memories and Identity Protection
Brigard, F. D., & Stanley, M. L. (2021) · Psychological Inquiry · doi:10.1080/1047840x.2021.2004817 · Cited by 3
“People often have difficulty retrospectively determining what they knew prior to acquiring all kinds of new information (e.g., Fischoff, 1975; Hasher, Attig, & Alba, 1981; Hawkins & Hastie, 1990; Roese & Vohs, 2012; Wood, 1978).”
BackgroundThe Happening of Bias in Construction Dispute Negotiation
Cheung, S.-O., & Li, K. (2021) · Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-80256-1_1 · Cited by 2
Reflecting or ruminating: listening to the regrets of life science leaders
Meldrum, H. (2021) · International Journal of Organization Theory and Behavior · doi:10.1108/ijotb-06-2019-0069 · Cited by 2
Debiasing media articles–reducing hindsight bias in the production of written work.
Meuer, M., Nestler, S., & Oeberst, A. (2021) · Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.jarmac.2020.12.006 · Cited by 2
Confronting Functional Complexity Failures: The Case of a Runway Excursion in Munich
Mauro, R., & Sherry, L. (2019) · Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting · doi:10.1177/1071181319631486 · Cited by 2
“But this perception is largely the result of hindsight bias (e.g., Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
BackgroundBelief bias and representation in assessing the Bayesian rationality of others
Anderson, R. B., Leventhal, L. M., Zhang, D. C., Fasko, D., Basehore, Z., Gamsby, C., Branch, J. G., & Patrick, T. (2019) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500002862 · Cited by 2
“…person’s knowledge of the occurrence of a particular event can cause that person to either overestimate the extent to which he or she could have successfully predicted the event, or to falsely remember the he or she made a correct prediction (this is “hindsight bias;” see Pohl, 2017, for a review).”
Controlling Bias in Forensic Radiology
Meltzer, C., & Banja, J. (2014) · AJOB Neuroscience · doi:10.1080/21507740.2014.880087 · Cited by 2
“Another source of bias with which neuroradiologists are quite familiar is “visual hindsight” bias (Berlin 2000).”
BackgroundUsing Opportunity Costs to Counter “One-Shot Bias” in Policy Innovation
Elston, T., & Bevan, G. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-03008-7_35-1 · Cited by 3
Schanze, J., Hornidge, A.-K., Hutter, G., Macke, A., & Osberghaus, D. (2020) · Handbuch Krisenforschung · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-28571-5_10 · Cited by 2
Schropp, T. (2026) · Management Review Quarterly · doi:10.1007/s11301-026-00590-4 · Cited by 1
Derbyshire, J., & Aven, T. (2026) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.70256 · Cited by 1
Latif, B., Elbanna, S., Hanan, A., & Roh, T. (2026) · Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management · doi:10.1002/csr.70492 · Cited by 2
Common, Uncommon Sense: Visiting the Human‐Versus‐AI Argument
Ahmed, D., Dechang, Goldstein, M. A., Stremekiene, D., & Bhutta, U. S. (2026) · Journal of Economic Surveys · doi:10.1111/joes.70066 · Cited by 1
Meister, R. A., McBride, M. E., Schmutz, J. B., Adler, M., & Eppich, W. (2025) · Medical Education · doi:10.1111/medu.70077 · Cited by 1
“2,3 While many patient safety initiatives rely on retrospective analysis to make proactive or preventative strategies, such reviews often lack granularity of real time events, 4 suffer from hindsight bias, 4,5 and frequently overlook complex team dynamics and adaptation.”
Giordano, N. A., Kaplan, D. M., Peacock, C., Vyas, I., Pozzo, N. S., Shelton, M., Escoffery, C., Rana, S., Raison, C. L., Grant, G. H., et al. (2025) · Pilot and Feasibility Studies · doi:10.1186/s40814-025-01712-7 · Cited by 1
Why Experience Fails to Foster Expertise in Athlete Selection.
Peringa, I., Niessen, A., Meijer, R. R., & den Hartigh, R. D. (2025) · Psychology of Sport And Exercise · doi:10.1016/j.psychsport.2025.103022 · Cited by 1
Choudhary, G. S., & Yamuna, G. (2025) · South Asian Journal of Management · doi:10.62206/sajm.32.3.2025.187-210 · Cited by 2
Ретроспективные паттерны в литературе о войне: 1812
Szubin, R. (2025) · Przegląd Rusycystyczny · doi:10.31261/pr.18631 · Cited by 1
Does the Devil’s Advocate Approach Mitigate Escalation of Commitment?
Gerstel, H., Kreilkamp, N., Schmidt, M., & Wöhrmann, A. (2022) · Journal of Business Economics · doi:10.1007/s11573-025-01234-x
“However, research on hindsight bias (see e.g., Roese and Vohs 2012 for a review) shows that an initially preferable investment decision can be perceived as a failure in hindsight if a negative outcome occurs.”
Epistemic nudging for accurate normative expectations
Wang, C.-M., Juzaszek, M., & Ryan, S. (2025) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-025-05127-y · Cited by 2
“This reinterpretation rein - forces the perception of recycling as a deeply ingrained norm and reduces openness to alternative initiatives (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Tian, X. (2025) · Asian Journal of Law and Economics · doi:10.1515/ajle-2025-0037 · Cited by 1
Chen, Y., & Son, L. K. (2025) · Metacognition and Learning · doi:10.1007/s11409-025-09428-y · Cited by 1
“These data suggested that people would often succumb to the bias, and retrospectively underestimate the time they spent completing a prior task—in line with the notion of “I knew it all along” (Fischhoff, 1975; Hawkins & Hastie, 1990; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Conceptual characteristics of weather information: An interdisciplinary integrative review
Bukowski, F. (2025) · Journal of the European Meteorological Society. · doi:10.1016/j.jemets.2025.100014 · Cited by 1
Kara-Yakoubian, M., & Spaniol, J. (2024) · Cognition & Emotion · doi:10.1080/02699931.2024.2421400 · Cited by 1
“Hindsight bias can be expressed in terms of memory distortion, feelings of inevitability, and feelings of fore-seeability (Blank et al., 2008; Groß & Bayen, 2022; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Bogani, A., Tentori, K., Ferrante, D., & Pighin, S. (2024) · Thinking & Reasoning · doi:10.1080/13546783.2024.2343455 · Cited by 1
“The proposal that counterfactuals can serve a sense-making function is certainly not new (e.g., Byrne, 2016; Mandel, 2011; Roese & Vohs, 2012) and offers a more coherent account of various results observed in the present work.”
Dulsamphan, T., Juntama, P., Suwanpanich, C., Isaranuwatchai, W., Silzle, M., Poonmaksatit, S., Boonsimma, P., Shotelersuk, V., Visudtibhan, A., Lusawat, A., et al. (2023) · International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care · doi:10.1017/s0266462323002714 · Cited by 1
“This could also be due to the effects of overconfidence, a consequence of hindsight bias, in unblind experts (23).”
BackgroundResponses to Transgressions: Grudges or Forgiveness?
Kowalski, R. M., Cote, N., Brewer, L., Mochizuki, G., Dowd, M., Burzin, K., Gagne, M., Ridder, A., Carroll, H., Korson, H., et al. (2023) · Journal of Social Psychology Research · doi:10.37256/jspr.2220233086 · Cited by 1
Dennison, J. (2023) · International migration (Geneva. Print) · doi:10.1111/imig.13177 · Cited by 1
Corporate capital allocation: a behavioral perspective and guidance for future research
Kremer, R. (2023) · Journal of strategy and management · doi:10.1108/jsma-01-2020-0014 · Cited by 2
A Twofold Tension in Schurz’s Meta-Inductive Solution to Hume’s Problem of Induction
Shogenji, T. (2023) · Journal for General Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1007/s10838-022-09613-6 · Cited by 1
Over Triage: Injury Classification Mistake or Hindsight Bias?
Simonson, R., Keebler, J., Fernandez, R., Lazzara, E., & Chaparro, A. (2022) · Proceedings of the International Symposium on Human Factors and Ergonomics in Health Care · doi:10.1177/2327857922111001 · Cited by 1
“Hindsight bias is a cognitive phenomenon that occurs when an actor (e.g., individual, organization, etc.) makes a decision regarding an event after the outcome of said event is known (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
BackgroundPragmatic, constructive, and reconstructive memory influences on the hindsight bias
Salmen, K., Ermark, F. K. G., & Fiedler, K. (2022) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-022-02158-1 · Cited by 2
“To demonstrate hindsight bias in the laboratory, two predominant research designs are used (e.g., Pohl, 2007; Pohl & Erdfelder, 2016).”
MethodNanoeconomics of Households in Lockdown Using Agent Models during COVID-19
Cifuentes‐Faura, J., & Francesco, R. D. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su14042083 · Cited by 1
Debiased-CAM to mitigate systematic error with faithful visual explanations of machine learning
Zhang, W.-C., Dimiccoli, M., & Lim, B. Y. (2022) · arXiv.org · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2201.12835 · Cited by 1
“Zhang et al. [103] evaluated saliency using a reverse-ablation method to incrementally reveal important segments and ask participants to label the image; this avoids the hindsight bias effect [76].”
Method
Metadata
- Authors
- Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Venue
- Perspectives on Psychological Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2012-09
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 411-426
- ISSN
- 1745-6916 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-6924
- OpenAlex
- W4211165067
- Cited by
- 457
- References
- 186
- Citations by year
- 2026: 35 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 54 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 9.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Perspectives on Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Keywords
- hindsight bias, memory distortion, perceived predictability, metacognition, overconfidence, causal explanation, sensemaking, alternative explanations, data visualization, bias reduction interventions
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