Cited by 457Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsMemory Processes and InfluencesClinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

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Hindsight Bias

Roese, Neal J., Vohs, Kathleen D.·2012·Perspectives on Psychological Science

DOI 10.1177/1745691612454303

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Abstract

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events’ objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one’s own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one’s judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias.

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“Recent research on the hindsight bias includes theoretical (Roese and Vohs, 2012)”
Background
Political knowledge reduces hindsight memory distortion in election judgements
Calvillo, D., & Rutchick, A. M. (2014) · Journal of Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1080/20445911.2013.870179 · Cited by 11
“Roese and Vohs (2012) suggested that expertise may decrease the memory distortion component and increase the foreseeability component of hindsight bias.”
BackgroundResultInfluential
Missed Lung Lesions: Side-by-Side Comparison of Chest Radiography with MDCT
Tack, D., & Howarth, N. (2019) · IDKD Springer Series · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-11149-6_2 · Cited by 11
“Hindsight bias [22] with the information available from the MDCT makes the initial lesion extremely obvious.”
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Jugnandan, S., & Willows, G. D. (2023) · International Journal of Consumer Studies · doi:10.1111/ijcs.12935 · Cited by 17
Retrospective and prospective hindsight bias: Replications and extensions of Fischhoff (1975) and Slovic and Fischhoff (1977)
Chen, J., Kwan, C., Yeung, L. Y., Choi, H. Y., Lo, Y. C., Au, S. Y., Tsang, C. H., Cheng, B., & Feldman, G. (2021) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2021.104154 · Cited by 15
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“The results are mainly based on self-report data, and a hindsight bias cannot be ruled out (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Never underestimate your opponent: Hindsight bias causes overplacement and overentry into competition
Danz, D. N. (2020) · Games Econ. Behav. · doi:10.1016/j.geb.2020.10.001 · Cited by 10
How Education and Metacognitive Training May Ameliorate Religious Prejudices: A Randomized Controlled Trial
Moritz, S., Ahmed, K., Krott, N., Ohls, I., & Reininger, K. (2020) · International Journal for the Psychology of Religion · doi:10.1080/10508619.2020.1815994 · Cited by 10
“…to counter the well-established hindsight bias, also termed the “I-knew-it-all-along effect” (i.e., prior knowledge is edited over without the full awareness of the participant; Fischhoff & Beyth, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012; Tversky & Kahneman, 1973), thus creating a corrective “aha” experience.”
Background
An Alternate Path: The Experience of High-Potential Individuals Who Left School
Ritchotte, J. A., & Graefe, A. K. (2017) · Gifted Child Quarterly · doi:10.1177/0016986217722615 · Cited by 10
Moral judgments of risky choices: A moral echoing effect
Parkinson, M., & Byrne, R. M. J. (2017) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500005854 · Cited by 12
“A similar mechanism has been proposed for hind-sight bias, the tendency for people with outcome knowledge to believe they would have predicted the outcome (Fischhoﬀ, 1975; Hawkins & Hastie 1990; Roese & Vohs 2012).”
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Information mismatch in PHH3-assisted mitosis annotation leads to interpretation shifts in H&E slide analysis
Ganz, J., Marzahl, C., Ammeling, J., Rosbach, E., Richter, B., Puget, C., Denk, D., Demeter, E., Tăbăran, F., Wasinger, G., et al. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-77244-6 · Cited by 9
“…that while the PHH3-assisted labeling methodology may result in a high level of agreement among pathologists, it may also introduce a hindsight bias 44 , i.e., that the reviewers judge potential MF objects differently in H&E after knowing the biological truth through the PHH3 image, even if the…”
Background
Simple analysis of complex system safety based on Finite State Machine Network and phase space theory
Song, X., Qi, L., Liu, S., Ding, S., & Li, D. (2024) · Reliability Engineering & System Safety · doi:10.1016/j.ress.2024.110205 · Cited by 12
Experiments on Self-Nudging, Autonomy, and the Prospect of Behavioral-Self-Management
Tontrup, S. W., & Sprigman, C. J. (2019) · Journal of Empirical Legal Studies · doi:10.1111/jels.12321 · Cited by 10
An archetypal perspective on householders who ‘wait and see’ during a bushfire
Strahan, K. (2020) · Progress in Disaster Science · doi:10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100107 · Cited by 11
Only Familiar Information is a "Curse": Children's Ability to Predict What Their Peers Know.
Ghrear, S., Fung, K., Haddock, T., & Birch, S. A. J. (2020) · Child Development · doi:10.1111/cdev.13437 · Cited by 9
“It occurs across a variety of paradigms and information types (Blank, Fischer, & Erdfelder, 2003; Bryant & Brockway, 1997; Tykocinski, Pick, & Kedmi, 2002), across cultures (Heine & Lehman, 1996; Pohl, Bender, & Lachmann, 2002), and has been documented in many applied settings,This research was…”
Background
Biases in construction project dispute resolution
Cheung, S. O., & Li, K. (2019) · Engineering Construction & Architectural Management · doi:10.1108/ecam-03-2018-0109 · Cited by 19
“The better a person can make sense of the story and inject meaning into the past, the greater is the HE (Hawkins and Hastie, 1990; Blank and Nestler, 2007; Roese and Vohs, 2012).”
Background
Is Hindsight Really 20/20?: The Impact of Outcome Information on the Decision-Making Process
Beltrani, A., Reed, A. L., Zapf, P. A., & Otto, R. K. (2018) · International Journal of Forensic Mental Health · doi:10.1080/14999013.2018.1505790 · Cited by 16
“…(e.g., “I said it would happen”); impressions of foreseeability involve the belief that one could have personally foreseen the event (e.g., “I knew it would happen”), and impressions of inevitability reflect one’s belief that the event was inevitable (e.g., “it had to happen”) (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
How lacking control drives fluency effects in evaluative judgment
Blair, S. (2019) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2019.11.003 · Cited by 12
Hospitality Human Capital process model in crisis management: Managing human capital and revealing employees’ hidden capabilities
Goll, J., & Zięba, K. (2025) · Tourism and Hospitality Research · doi:10.1177/14673584251313726 · Cited by 11
“Moreover, the aim was to conduct the interviews right after the crisis-event phase to minimize the risk of hindsight bias and obtain the most reliable results (Roese and Vohs, 2012), which also came along with the limited study time.”
Surprisingly unsustainable: How and when hindsight biases shape consumer evaluations of unsustainable and sustainable products
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Hindsight bias in assessing child sexual abuse
Scurich, N., Güney, Ş., & Dietz, P. (2022) · Journal of Sexual Aggression · doi:10.1080/13552600.2022.2034999 · Cited by 8
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Sleegers, W. W. A., Proulx, T., & van Beest, I. (2020) · Social Psychological and Personality Science · doi:10.1177/1948550620966153 · Cited by 7
“Several processes have been proposed to underlie the hindsight bias (Hawkins & Hastie, 1990; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
Person-centred experiential therapy (PCET) training within a UK NHS IAPT service: experiences of selected counsellors in the PRaCTICED trial*
Nye, A., Connell, J., Haake, R., & Barkham, M. (2018) · British Journal of Guidance and Counselling · doi:10.1080/03069885.2018.1544608 · Cited by 8
Blinding or information control in diagnosis: could it reduce errors in clinical decision-making?
Lockhart, J. J., & Satya‐Murti, S. (2018) · Diagnosis · doi:10.1515/dx-2018-0030 · Cited by 8
Changes in sensed dis/continuity in the development of student teachers throughout teacher education
van Rijswijk, M., Bronkhorst, L., Akkerman, S., & van Tartwijk, J. (2018) · doi:10.1080/02619768.2018.1448782 · Cited by 8
“Moreover, the design helped to avoid effects of hindsight bias (Roese and Vohs 2012) and allowed analysis of student teacher’ development as it unfolds in teacher education.”
Background
Reading about explanations enhances perceptions of inevitability and foreseeability: a cross-cultural study with Wikipedia articles
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Clinical Guidelines and Professional Liability: A Short Comment from the Legal Side
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Behavioral analysis of mergers and acquisitions decisions
Asaoka, D. (2019) · Corporate Board: role, duties and composition · doi:10.22495/cbv15i3art1 · Cited by 8
“This is an example of hindsight bias, where people regard something as if they perceived it beforehand, even if they did not (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
New ways to cope with depression—study protocol for a randomized controlled mixed methods trial of bouldering psychotherapy (BPT) and mental model therapy (MMT)
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Weak correlations among 13 episodic memory tasks related to the same public event
Murphy, G., Loftus, E. F., Levine, L. J., Grady, R. H., & Greene, C. M. (2023) · Applied Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1002/acp.4103 · Cited by 8
“Hindsight bias, or the ‘ knew-it-all-along ’ effect, is the tendency for memories for pre-event expectations to be biased once the outcome is known (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
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Individual Processing of Phishing Emails: Towards a Phishing Detection Framework
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Payne, B. K., Vuletich, H. A., & Lundberg, K. B. (2021) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691621997394 · Cited by 12
“Puzzles rarely seem puzzling once the answer has been explained (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
Wikipedia outperforms individuals when it comes to hindsight bias
Oeberst, A., von der Beck, I., Creß, U., & Nestler, S. (2019) · Psychological Research · doi:10.1007/s00426-019-01165-7 · Cited by 6
Human factors, cognitive bias and the paramedic
Allen, J. (2019) · Journal of Paramedic Practice · doi:10.12968/jpar.2019.11.1.8 · Cited by 8
Evaluating interventions that prevent or counter violent extremism: A practical guide
Bellasio, J., Sim, M., van Gorp, A., Cox, K., Ito, K., Baruch, B., Guerin, B., Martin, A., Grand-Clément, S., Janta, B., et al. (2018) · RAND Corporation eBooks · doi:10.7249/rr2094 · Cited by 10
“• An ethical issue specific for all theorybased evaluation might be that it is difficult to reconstruct the programme theory without falling prey to hindsight bias (Roese and Vohs, 2012).”
BackgroundInfluential
Effects of physical randomness training on virtual and laboratory golf putting performance in novices
Pataky, T. C., & Lamb, P. F. (2017) · Journal of Sports Sciences · doi:10.1080/02640414.2017.1378493 · Cited by 9
The influence of context and perception when designing out risks associated with non-potable urban water reuse
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“This overconfidence trap can be driven when the certainty of our judgement is based on a myopic attention to a limited causal understanding of a past event, in other words, it is based on hindsight bias (Roese & Vohs 2012).”
Use of the recognition heuristic depends on the domain’s recognition validity, not on the recognition validity of selected sets of objects
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“As a second example, hindsight bias, that is, the tendency to overestimate one’s pre-outcome knowledge (see Pohl & Erdfelder, 2017, for a general overview), has been found to be much larger for almanac questions than for case histories (ChristensenSzalanski & Willham, 1991).”
Background
Domain Knowledge and Hindsight Bias among Poker Players
Calvillo, D., & Rutchick, A. M. (2014) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.1799 · Cited by 7
“Finally, participants’ performance on the poker knowledge questionnaire was negatively correlated with hindsight bias from the memory condition as predicted by others (Roese & Vohs, 2012) and reported in a computer simulation (Hertwig et al., 2003).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluential
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Sadatsafavi, M., Marra, C., Aaron, S., & Bryan, S. (2012) · Trials · doi:10.1186/1745-6215-15-201 · Cited by 7
Communicating uncertain experimental evidencePreprint
Davis, A., Davis, A. L., & Fischhoff, B. (2018) · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/7d3g9
Hindsight Bias in Forensic Mental Health Novices and Experts: An Exploratory Study
Weber, M. A., Albrecht, J. N., Endrass, J., Humbel, D., Meier, D. R., Singh, J. P., & Gerth, J. (2024) · Journal of Forensic Psychology Research and Practice · doi:10.1080/24732850.2024.2396991 · Cited by 4
“For instance, after the results of an election have been announced, people tend to believe that they had seen it coming, although this was not the case (e.g., Pohl & Erdfelder, 2016).”
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Ebb and flow: design fixation and creativity in professional groups
Zhang, W. (2024) · Journal of Engineering Design · doi:10.1080/09544828.2024.2306783 · Cited by 6
“Additionally, self-reporting during interviews often entails retrospective sense-making and reconstruction of past events (Huber 1985; Podsakoff and Organ 1986; Roese and Vohs 2012), potentially introducing biases in specifying how design fixation actually occurs.”
Background
Consent Searches and Underestimation of Compliance: Robustness to Type of Search, Consequences of Search, and Demographic SamplePreprint
Sommers, R., & Bohns, V. (2023) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4554126 · Cited by 6
Effective transfer of safety interventions within and between organizations: Leveraging translation theory to achieve improved outcomes
Pilbeam, C., & Karanikas, N. (2023) · Safety Science · doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106318 · Cited by 6
Jurors use mental state information to assess breach in negligence cases.
Margoni, F., & Brown, T. (2023) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2023.105442 · Cited by 6
Visual hindsight bias for abnormal mammograms in radiologists
Schill, H. M., Gray, S. M., & Brady, T. (2023) · Journal of Medical Imaging · doi:10.1117/1.jmi.10.s1.s11910 · Cited by 6
“The second radiologist could indeed see the mass.(20) This sequence of events is common in radiology.”
Background
Factors affecting "expectations of the unexpected": The impact of controllability & valence on unexpected outcomes.
Quinn, M. S., & Keane, M. T. (2022) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2022.105142 · Cited by 6
“In hindsight bias, negative events elicit less bias overall, while controllable outcomes elicit more bias when measured by foreseeability, but less bias when measured by inevitability (Blank & Peters, 2010; Pezzo & Beckstead, 2008; Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
Hindsight bias in metamemory: outcome knowledge influences the recollection of judgments of learning
Zimdahl, M. F., & Undorf, M. (2021) · Memory · doi:10.1080/09658211.2021.1919144 · Cited by 11
“In many studies on the hindsight bias, correctly recollected judgments (ROJ = OJ) are excluded when computing ΔHB (see Pohl, 2007; Pohl & Erdfelder, 2017).”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Crossing Academic Boundaries for Diagnostic Safety: 10 Complex Challenges and Potential Solutions From Clinical Perspectives and High-Reliability Organizing Principles
Yousef, E. A., Sutcliffe, K. M., McDonald, K. M., & Newman‐Toker, D. E. (2021) · Human Factors The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society · doi:10.1177/0018720821996187 · Cited by 9
“As a result, any errors “detected” might simply be the result of hindsight bias (Roese & Vohs, 2012; Wears & Nemeth, 2007; Wears & Sutcliffe, 2020), or at least viewed as such.”
Background
Adding to the Controversy? Civil Society’s Evaluation of the National Conference Dialogue in Yemen
Elayah, M. A. A., van Kempen, L., & Schulpen, L. (2020) · Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding · doi:10.1080/17502977.2019.1703491 · Cited by 6
“First, the scholarly perspective may be subject to ‘hindsight bias’, where actors ‘believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known’ (Roese and Vohs 2012, 411).”
Background
Are random events perceived as rare? On the relationship between perceived randomness and outcome probability
Teigen, K., & Keren, G. (2020) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/s13421-019-01011-6 · Cited by 6
“One is exaggerated beliefs in foreseeability and control, as indicated by research on the hindsight bias (Roese & Vohs, 2012).”
Background
Age stereotypes and compliance with feedback in elderly drivers
Söllner, M., & Florack, A. (2019) · Transportation Research Part F Traffic Psychology and Behaviour · doi:10.1016/j.trf.2019.10.001 · Cited by 7
Evaluating scientific research: Belief, hindsight bias, ethics, and research evaluation
Hom, H. L., & Nuland, A. V. (2019) · Applied Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1002/acp.3519 · Cited by 6
Bias Measurement Scale for Repeated Dispute Evaluations
Li, K., & Cheung, S.-O. (2018) · Journal of Management in Engineering · doi:10.1061/(asce)me.1943-5479.0000617 · Cited by 6
‘It is my decision, and it's really up to me. But they wanted me to do it’: an exploration of choice in enrolling in a reengagement programme
Thomas, J. A., Dyment, J. E., Moltow, D., & Hay, I. (2016) · International Journal of Inclusive Education · doi:10.1080/13603116.2016.1155665 · Cited by 6
“We were aware that this retrospective work invites interviewees to ‘re-write history’ of what they thought and felt before something happened (Roese and Vohs 2012).”
Background
Looking back on the London Olympics: Independent outcome and hindsight effects in decision evaluation.
Blank, H., Diedenhofen, B., & Musch, J. (2015) · British Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjso.12116 · Cited by 6
The Devil Is in the Details: When Holistic Thinkers React Negatively to Incongruent Information
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Authors: Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D.
Affiliations: Northwestern University (US)
University of Minnesota (US)
ORCID: Roese, Neal J.
Vohs, Kathleen D.
Venue: Perspectives on Psychological Science
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2012-09
Volume: 7
Issue: 5
Pages: 411-426
ISSN: 1745-6916 (ISSN-L)
1745-6924
DOI: 10.1177/1745691612454303
OpenAlex: W4211165067
Cited by: 457
References: 186
Citations by year: 2026: 35 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 54 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 2
FWCI: 9.21
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations: Perspectives on Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Keywords: hindsight bias, memory distortion, perceived predictability, metacognition, overconfidence, causal explanation, sensemaking, alternative explanations, data visualization, bias reduction interventions

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