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Cited by 533

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 65 of the 65 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss

Open access
Davis, Steven J., von Wachter, Till·2011·Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
DOI 10.1353/eca.2011.0016
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Abstract

We develop new evidence on the cumulative earnings losses associated with job displacement, drawing on longitudinal Social Security records from 1974 to 2008. In present-value terms, men lose an average of 1.4 years of predisplacement earnings if displaced in mass-layoff events that occur when the national unemployment rate is below 6 percent. They lose a staggering 2.8 years of predisplacement earnings if displaced when the unemployment rate exceeds 8 percent. These results reflect discounting at a 5 percent annual rate over 20 years after displacement. We also document large cyclical movements in the incidence of job loss and job displacement and present evidence on how worker anxieties about job loss, wage cuts, and job opportunities respond to contemporaneous economic conditions. Finally, we confront leading models of unemployment fluctuations with evidence on the present-value earnings losses associated with job displacement. The 1994 model of Dale Mortensen and Christopher Pissarides, extended to include search on the job, generates present-value losses that are only one-fourth as large as observed losses. Moreover, present-value losses in the model vary little with aggregate conditions at the time of displacement, unlike the pattern in the data.

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Metadata

Authors
Davis, S. J., & von Wachter, T.
Venue
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Publisher
Project MUSE
Published
2011-09
Volume
2011
Issue
2
Pages
1-72
ISSN
  • 0007-2303 (ISSN-L)
  • 1533-4465
DOI
10.1353/eca.2011.0016
OpenAlex
W2134956426
Cited by
533
References
65
FWCI
65.21
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
green

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