Do test score gaps grow before, during, or between the school years?: Measurement artifacts and what we can know in spite of them
Open accessAbstract
Do test score gaps between advantaged and disadvantaged children originate inside or outside schools? One approach to this classic question is to ask (1) How large are gaps when children enter school? (2) How much do gaps grow later on? (3) Do gaps grow faster during school or during summer? Confusingly, past research has given discrepant answers to these basic questions. We show that many results about gap growth have been distorted by measurement artifacts. One artifact relates to scaling: Gaps appear to grow faster if measurement scales spread with age. Another artifact relates to changes in test form: Summer gap growth is hard to estimate if children take different tests in spring than in fall. Net of artifacts, the most replicable finding is that gaps form mainly in early childhood, before schooling begins. After school begins, most gaps grow little, and some gaps shrink. Evidence is inconsistent regarding whether gaps grow faster during school or during summer. We substantiate these conclusions using new data from the Growth Research Database and two data sets used in previous studies of gap growth: the Beginning School Study and the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Cohort of 1998–1999.
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Early influential studies found that summer is a time when socioeconomic learning gaps widen, but this finding has failed to replicate in more recent studies or in European samples.
“Although early influential studies also found that summer is a time when socioeconomic learning gaps widen, this finding has failed to replicate in more recent studies (8, 9) or in European samples (48, 49).”
From Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic (2021) · cites this paper as [8]
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“This could be explained by two reasons: (1) a measurement effect, such that learning losses are over-estimated when measured immediately after a break (as in the summer learning loss, (von Hippel and Hamrock 2019; Von Hippel 2019)); (2) an actual catch-up following the reopening of schools.”
Findings on Summer Learning Loss Often Fail to Replicate, Even in Recent Data
Workman, J. B., von Hippel, P. T., & Merry, J. J. (2023) · Sociological Science · doi:10.15195/v10.a8 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“Another measurement issue is test score scaling (von Hippel 2019; von Hippel and Hamrock 2019).”
InfluentialDowney, D. B., Quinn, D. M., & Alcaraz, M. (2019) · Sociology of Education · doi:10.1177/0038040719870683 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Coronavirus pandemic, remote learning and education inequalities
Murat, M., & Bonacini, L. (2020) · doi:10.25431/11380_1211025 · Cited by 22
“11 von Hippel and Hamrock (2019), find that cognitive losses deriving from summer vacations are reversed after variable lengths of time once back at school.”
InfluentialHow Not to Fool Ourselves About Heterogeneity of Treatment Effects
von Hippel, P. V., & Schuetze, B. A. (2025) · Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/25152459241304347 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“In this example, the researchers argued that the IRT scale measures students’ skills better than the number-right scale (von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
InfluentialThe learning gain over one school year among 15-year-olds: An international comparison based on PISA
Avvisati, F., & Givord, P. (2023) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102365 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Quinn, D. M., & Le, Q. (2018) · AERA Open · doi:10.1177/2332858418819995 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“As compared with earlier work, recent studies have drawn more mixed conclusions regarding the seasonal dynamics of achievement inequality (Atteberry & McEachin, 2016; Quinn, Cooc, McIntyre, & Gomez, 2016; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2016).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialNon-Cognitive skills and the growing achievement Gap⋆
Liu, A. (2020) · Research in Social Stratification and Mobility · doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100546 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Holley, C. E., Mason, C., & Haycraft, E. (2019) · Nutrients · doi:10.3390/nu11061237 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Explaining inequalities of homeschooling in Germany during the first COVID-19 lockdown
Sari, E., Bittmann, F., & Homuth, C. (2023) · Frontiers in Education · doi:10.3389/feduc.2023.1154389 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Schools as Refractors: Comparing Summertime and School-Year Skill Inequality Trajectories
Condron, D. J., Downey, D. B., & Kuhfeld, M. R. (2021) · Sociology of Education · doi:10.1177/00380407211041542 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“The test scores in Entwisle and Alexander’s (1992, 1994) influential studies lacked this property, as did those in the 1998 ECLS-K cohort (for a discussion of this problem, see von Hippel and Hamrock 2019).”
BackgroundThe Learning Curve: Revisiting the Assumption of Linear Growth during the School Year
Kuhfeld, M. R., & Soland, J. G. (2021) · Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness · doi:10.1080/19345747.2020.1839990 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“…evolve nonlinearly over the course of the year (e.g., Malmberg et al., 2010), yet many policy-relevant metrics like summer learning loss estimates are dependent on the assumption of within-year linearity (Downey et al., 2004; Quinn et al., 2016; von Hippel et al., 2018; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialPeters, S. J., Langi, M., Kuhfeld, M., & Lewis, K. (2025) · Journal for the Education of the Gifted · doi:10.1177/01623532241301079 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“Regarding socioeconomic status (SES), von Hippel and Hamrock (2019) found that the reading gap between students in the top and bottom quintiles of SES shrank by 25% between the Fall of kindergarten and the Spring of second grade.”
Morgan, P. L., Woods, A. D., Wang, Y., Farkas, G., Hillemeier, M. M., & Mitchell, C. (2022) · Journal of Learning Disabilities · doi:10.1177/00222194221094019 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
“Achievement gaps are relatively stable over time (Morgan et al., 2009; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
BackgroundHofer, S. I., Reinhold, F., & Koch, M. (2022) · European Journal of Psychology of Education · doi:10.1007/s10212-021-00590-w · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“These studies find, at most, small associations of summer achievement loss with poverty or mothers’ education level (Hippel & Hamrock, 2019; Kuhfeld, 2019).”
BackgroundKromydas, T., Campbell, M., Chambers, S., Boon, M. H., Pearce, A., Wells, V., & Craig, P. (2022) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-022-12540-2 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Is Kindergarten Ability Group Placement Biased? New Data, New Methods, New Answers
von Hippel, P. V., & Canedo, A. P. (2021) · The American Educational Research Journal · doi:10.3102/00028312211061410 · Cited by 12
“…to assess bias in ability group placement, because even at the start of kindergarten, reading and math skills are strongly correlated with SES and race/ethnicity, and reading skills are mildly correlated with gender (Duncan & Magnuson, 2011; von Hippel et al., 2018; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
BackgroundMost Mathematics Classrooms Contain Wide-Ranging Achievement Levels
Pedersen, B., Makel, M. C., Rambo-Hernandez, K. E., Peters, S. J., & Plucker, J. A. (2023) · Gifted Child Quarterly · doi:10.1177/00169862231166074 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Understanding Differential Growth During School Years and Summers for Students in Special Education
Johnson, A., & Barker, E. (2022) · Journal of Education for Students Placed at Risk (JESPAR) · doi:10.1080/10824669.2022.2051145 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
“We examine academic growth separately for when school is in versus out of session, which is referred to as seasonal learning in prior literature (e.g., von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
BackgroundMethodSchools and Inequality: Implications from Seasonal Comparison Research
Downey, D. B., Yoon, A., & Martin, E. (2018) · Handbooks of sociology and social research · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-76694-2_3 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Herring, W. A., Bassok, D., McGinty, A., Miller, L. C., & Wyckoff, J. (2022) · Educational Researcher · doi:10.3102/0013189x221091535 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“…Study (ECLS), show that Black children, Hispanic children, and children from families with lower incomes enter kindergarten with substantially lower reading skills than do their White and higher-income peers (Fryer & Levitt, 2004; Quinn, 2015; Reardon & Portilla, 2016; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
BackgroundEvery Summer Counts: A Longitudinal Analysis of Outcomes from the National Summer Learning Project
McCombs, J. S., Augustine, C. H., Pane, J. F., & Schweig, J. D. (2020) · RAND Corporation eBooks · doi:10.7249/rr3201 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Schools as a Relatively Standardizing Institution: The Case of Gender Gaps in Cognitive Skills
Downey, D. B., Kuhfeld, M. R., & van Hek, M. (2022) · Sociology of Education · doi:10.1177/00380407211070319 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Hastings, O. P., & LaBriola, J. (2021) · Research in Social Stratification and Mobility · doi:10.31235/osf.io/qvdcu · Cited by 9
Exploring the summer reading effect through visual analysis of multiple datasets
Reed, D. K., Aloe, A. M., Park, S., & Reeger, A. J. (2021) · Journal of Research in Reading · doi:10.1111/1467-9817.12357 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Resiliency and vulnerability in early grades writing performance during the COVID-19 pandemic
Reed, D. K., Ma, J., & Gerde, H. K. (2023) · Assessing Writing · doi:10.1016/j.asw.2023.100741 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“…nascent skills, it may seem unlikely that first graders could be tested with measures of written expression, but previous studies at this grade level successfully have included writing prompts (Berninger & Fuller, 1992; Coker et al., 2018; Kim et al., 2014; Kim et al., 2015; McMaster et al., 2009).”
InfluentialThe Dynamic Effects of a Summer Learning Program on Behavioral Engagement in School
Pyne, J., Messner, E., & Dee, T. S. (2021) · Education Finance and Policy · doi:10.1162/edfp_a_00368 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Heterogeneity in the Development of Executive Function: Evidence from Nationally Representative Data
Reid, J. L., & Ready, D. D. (2021) · Early Education and Development · doi:10.1080/10409289.2020.1866949 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
A Seasonal Dynamic Measurement Model for Summer Learning Loss
McNeish, D., & Dumas, D. (2020) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · doi:10.1111/rssa.12634 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“This issue of extending piecewise models to longer timeframes is corroborated by von Hippel and Hamrock (2019), who fit a piecewise model to all time points from the MAP assessment data.”
MethodFitzpatrick, D., & BURNS, J. L. (2019) · Campbell Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/cl2.1053 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“…question whether modern data actually shows low‐income students to exhibit summer learning loss at any greater magnitude than higher‐income students (von Hippel and Hamrock, 2019; Von Hippel, 2019), and introduces the possibility that students whose achievement grows the most during the year…”
Schild, C. E., Meigen, C., Kappelt, J., Kiess, W., & Poulain, T. (2022) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2022-065936 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
The role of teachers and schools in explaining STEM outcome gaps
Goldhaber, D. D., Theobald, R. J., & Fumia, D. (2022) · Social Science Research · doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2022.102709 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Rambo-Hernandez, K., Makel, M. C., & Koehler, N. (2024) · Journal for the Education of the Gifted · doi:10.1177/01623532241277840 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“However, schooling broadly — and classroom instruction speci fi cally — is often designed around grade-level standards (Polikoff, 2021), which do not account for the variability in learning readiness (Ansari, 2018; Engel et al., 2013; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
Vaknin-Nusbaum, V., & Rachevski, I. (2023) · Journal of Learning Disabilities · doi:10.1177/00222194231211947 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“…pointing to a Matthew effect that not only perpetuates itself but might also transfer to additional areas, putting at risk the development of other essential skills (Heckman, 2006; Lee & Burkam, 2002; Perfetti, 1988; Stanovich, 1988; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019), 21st-century skills among them.”
BackgroundKuhfeld, M., Soland, J., Register, B., & McEachin, A. (2023) · Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis · doi:10.3102/01623737231165027 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“Examples of these critiques include the use of nonlinked test forms between spring and fall of adjacent grade levels in early SLL research (von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019), the role of teachers’ coaching to potentially boost spring performance and depress fall test scores (Slavin et al., 1989), and…”
Learning Loss Recovery Dashboard: A Proposed Design to Mitigate Learning Loss Post Schools Closure
Aldosemani, T. I., & Khateeb, A. A. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su14105944 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Kihara, T. (2021) · International Migration Review · doi:10.1177/01979183211041543 · Cited by 6
“In contrast, gaps remained relatively constant among children of native-born parents throughout kindergarten to the end of 11th grade (see Figure 2A and B), which is consistent with the existing literature (e.g., Magnuson, Waldfogel and Washbrook 2012; von Hippel and Hamrock 2019).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialJohnson, A., & Kuhfeld, M. R. (2021) · Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness · doi:10.1080/19345747.2021.1894519 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“Seasonal patterns of learning, where gains during the school year are followed by flattening or dropping of test scores during the summer, have been observed across a range of datasets (von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
BackgroundAtteberry, A., Bischoff, K., & Owens, A. (2021) · Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness · doi:10.1080/19345747.2020.1868032 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“…children as they move through school can shed light on whether schooling experiences exacerbate or ameliorate achievement gaps, though much has been written about the difficulties in getting these estimates right (Quinn, 2015; Quinn & McIntyre, 2017; Reardon, 2008; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
BackgroundThe Role of Schooling in Equalizing Achievement Disparity by Migrant Background
Passaretta, G., & Škopek, J. (2024) · Sociology of Education · doi:10.1177/00380407241293692 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“Schools have been found to increase the Black-White gap (Kuhfeld et al. 2021; Quinn et al. 2016; von Hippel et al. 2018; von Hippel and Hamrock 2019), but findings for gaps between Hispanic and White students are inconsistent (von Hippel et al. 2018).”
Dual Language Education and Academic Growth
Johnson, A. (2024) · Teachers College Record The Voice of Scholarship in Education · doi:10.1177/01614681241244934 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“Variations in patterns of learning by grade level and season are well-documented in recent research (Kuhfeld, 2019; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
BackgroundHow Does Schooling Affect Inequality in Cognitive Skills? The View From Seasonal Comparison Research
Downey, D. B. (2023) · Review of Educational Research · doi:10.3102/00346543231210005 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“In both the ECLS-K and NWEA datasets, scholars find that Black/White gaps grow faster during school periods than summers (Downey et al., 2004; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019; von Hippel et al., 2018; Kuhfeld et al., 2020), although Workman et al. (2023) fail to replicate this pattern.”
InfluentialReproducing or Reducing Inequality? The Case of Summer Learning Programs
Davies, S., Aurini, J., & Hillier, C. (2022) · Canadian Journal of Education / Revue canadienne de l éducation · doi:10.53967/cje-rce.5311 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Parental Help With Homework in Elementary School: Much Ado About Nothing?
Bodovski, K., Muñoz, I., & Apostolescu, R. (2022) · Journal of Research in Childhood Education · doi:10.1080/02568543.2022.2027830 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“In contrast, the IRT theta scores used in this study are approximately interval scaled, which is more suitable to measure change over time (for more information about the use of ECLS-K scores, see Von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
MethodExploring opportunities for math learning within parent–infant interactions
Leech, K. A., Herbert, K. K., Yang, Q., & Rowe, M. (2021) · Infant and Child Development · doi:10.1002/icd.2271 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
The Socialization of Meritocracy and Market Justice Preferences at School
Castillo, J. C., Salgado, M., Carrasco, K., & Laffert, A. (2024) · Societies · doi:10.3390/soc14110214 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Bosire, J. P. O., & Johnson, V. J. (2024) · Journal of Research in Childhood Education · doi:10.1080/02568543.2024.2373312 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“As a result, children’s language and literacy skills can vary widely at kindergarten-level entry (von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Oral Reading Fluency
Furjanic, D., Ives, C., Fainstein, D., Kennedy, P., & Biancarosa, G. (2024) · The Elementary school journal · doi:10.1086/730115 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“Furthermore, remediation of literacy skills requires signi fi cantly more time and resources compared with prevention of literacy dif fi culties (Torgesen, 2000 ; Torgesen et al., 2001 ; Vaughn & Wanzek, 2014 ; Vaughn et al., 2011 ; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019 ).”
BackgroundPrior home learning environment is associated with adaptation to homeschooling during COVID lockdown
Girard, C., & Prado, J. (2022) · Heliyon · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09294 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“This notably involved absenteeism (Santiba ~ nez and Guarino, 2021), holidays (von Hippel and Hamrock, 2019) or strikes (Jaume and Will (cid:1) en, 2019).”
Rambo-Hernandez, K. E., Makel, M. C., Peters, S. J., & Worley, C. (2021) · British Journal of Educational Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjep.12479 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Soland, J. G. (2021) · Teachers College Record The Voice of Scholarship in Education · doi:10.1177/01614681211070876 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“However, other works, including research by von Hippel and Hamrock (2019), have found that different gaps expand during different seasons and to varying degrees depending on data sources and measures of achievement.”
BackgroundCommunity Involvement in Summer Reading Programs: A Fresh Perspective
Matthews, J. (2021) · Public Library Quarterly · doi:10.1080/01616846.2021.1897500 · Cited by 4
“See also, Von Hippel and Hamrock (2019).”
The effects of summer learning on social-emotional and behavioral outcomes: A meta-analysis
Lynch, K. S., Lanteri, L., An, L., Mancenido, Z., & Richardson, J. (2025) · Social and Emotional Learning Research Practice and Policy · doi:10.1016/j.sel.2025.100101 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Lynch, K. S., An, L., & Mancenido, Z. (2024) · Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis · doi:10.3102/01623737241286524 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
The effect of school closures on standardized test scores: Evidence under zero-COVID policies
Gillitzer, C., & Prasad, N. (2024) · Economics of Education Review · doi:10.1016/j.econedurev.2024.102577 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
The Sensitivity of Teacher Value-Added Scores to the Use of Fall or Spring Test Scores
Atteberry, A., & Mangan, D. (2020) · Educational Researcher · doi:10.3102/0013189x20922993 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“…three data sets contains the same vertically scaled assessments, all of which may differ from one another in terms of scaling, content covered, or intended usage (see von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019, for a particularly relevant discussion of how measurement artifacts can affect inferences about SLL).”
BackgroundBauer, T., Zviagintsev, R., & Kampa, N. (2026) · European Journal of Psychology of Education · doi:10.1007/s10212-026-01115-z · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“Furthermore, the results show that significant SES gaps already exist before children enter the school system, and these differences tend to remain relatively stable throughout the educational journey (Skopek & Passaretta, 2021; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
Azzolini, D., Bazzoli, M., Burlacu, S. C., & Rettore, E. (2025) · Educational Researcher · doi:10.3102/0013189x251361799 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“Even if there is no full consensus on the size of this loss or on which type of students would be more affected (Atteberry & McEachin, 2021; von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019; Workman et al., 2023), a widespread concern exists regarding the risk that summer learning loss contributes to widening…”
Dille, J. T., Capin, P., Daniel, J., Dille, E. A., & Cahill, A. S. (2025) · Frontiers in Education · doi:10.3389/feduc.2025.1612484 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Imputing With Predictive Mean Matching Can Be Severely Biased When Values Are Missing At Random
von Hippel, P. V. (2025) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2506.22981 · Cited by 2
Fitzpatrick, D., & Burns, J. (2018) · Campbell Systematic Reviews: Better Evidence for a Better World · doi:10.1002/cl2.194 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
McAvinue, L. P. (2026) · Journal for the Study of Education and Development Infancia y Aprendizaje · doi:10.1177/02103702251406626 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Such initiatives, therefore, have the potential to reduce or prevent gaps from emerging before children start formal schooling (Von Hippel & Hamrock, 2019).”
Does schooling increase or reduce inequality in achievement and conscientiousness in Denmark?
Jensen, S. S. (2026) · Research in Social Stratification and Mobility · doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2026.101129 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Cognition varies across the calendar year in multiple large-scale datasets
Keller, A. S., Shetty, A., Barzilay, R., Calkins, M., Chong, Y., Dave, N., Fair, D., Gluckman, P. D., Gur, R., Gur, R., et al. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.2506054122 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Furthermore, it has been postulated that the magnitude of observed decreases in academic performance after summer vacation may be exaggerated by measurement choices such as grade - scaling and differences in test forms between prevacation and postvacation assessments ( 3 , 8 ).”
Shay, D., Shavit, Y., & Sasson, I. E. (2025) · European Sociological Review · doi:10.1093/esr/jcaf050 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Impact of a Book Distribution Program on Reading Performance at Kindergarten Enrollment
Cassady, J., Johnson, S., Davis, D., Quagliano, Q., Aoqui, A. C., & Gibble, M. (2025) · Early Childhood Education Journal · doi:10.1007/s10643-025-02059-7 · Cited by 1
- Authors
- von Hippel, P., & Hamrock, C.
- Affiliations
- E3 Alliance (US)
- Venue
- Sociological Science
- Publisher
- Society for Sociological Science
- Published
- 2019
- Volume
- 6
- Pages
- 43-80
- ISSN
- 2330-6696 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3121137590
- Cited by
- 149
- References
- 68
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 25 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 25.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Sociological Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Education › Early Childhood Education and Development
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies
- Keywords
- test score gaps, achievement gap, measurement artifacts, summer learning loss, early childhood, school entry
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