Neural Representation of Valenced and Generic Probability and Uncertainty
Open accessAbstract
Representing the probability and uncertainty of outcomes facilitates adaptive behavior by allowing organisms to prepare in advance and devote attention to relevant events. Probability and uncertainty are often studied only for valenced (appetitive or aversive) outcomes, raising the question of whether the identified neural machinery also processes the probability and uncertainty of motivationally neutral outcomes. Here, we aimed to dissociate valenced from valence-independent (i.e., generic) probability (p; maximum at p = 1) and uncertainty (maximum at p = 0.5) signals using human neuroimaging. In a Pavlovian task (n = 41; 19 females), different cues predicted appetitive, aversive, or neutral liquids with different probabilities (p = 0,p = 0.5,p = 1). Cue-elicited motor responses accelerated, and pupil sizes increased primarily for cues that predicted valenced liquids with higher probability. For neutral liquids, uncertainty rather than probability tended to accelerate cue-induced responding and decrease pupil size. At the neural level, generic uncertainty signals were limited to the occipital cortex, while generic probability also activated the anterior ventromedial prefrontal cortex. These generic probability and uncertainty signals contrasted with cue-induced responses that only encoded the probability and uncertainty of valenced liquids in medial prefrontal, insular, and occipital cortices. Our findings show a behavioral and neural dissociation of generic and valenced signals. Thus, some parts of the brain keep track of motivational charge while others do not, highlighting the need and usefulness of characterizing the exact nature of learned representations.
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The Anterior Insula Processes a Time-Resolved Subjective Risk Prediction Error
Kim, J.-C., Hellrung, L., Nebe, S., & Tobler, P. N. (2025) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.2302-24.2025 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Kim, J.-C., Hellrung, L., Grueschow, M., Nebe, S., Nagy, Z., & Tobler, P. N.
- Affiliations
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Kim, Jae-Chang
- Tobler, Philippe N.
- Venue
- The Journal of Neuroscience
- Publisher
- Society for Neuroscience
- Published
- 2024-06-12
- Volume
- 44
- Issue
- 30
- Pages
- e0195242024
- ISSN
- 0270-6474 (ISSN-L)
- 1529-2401
- PMC
- PMC11270512
- OpenAlex
- W4399568558
- Cited by
- 5
- References
- 71
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1
- FWCI
- 1.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Neuroscience (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Swiss National Science Foundation (Grants 10001C_188878)
- Doc.Mobility fellowship from the Swiss National Science Foundation (P1ZHP1_184166)
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant Agreement No. 794395)
- University of Zurich (FK-19-020)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory and Neural Mechanisms
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Neurotransmitter Receptor Influence on Behavior
- Keywords
- outcome probability, outcome uncertainty, valence, aversive outcomes, classical conditioning, pupil size, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, occipital cortex, insula, motivational salience
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Brain Mapping, Conditioning, Classical, Cues, Female, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Motivation, Probability, Pupil, Prefrontal Cortex, Uncertainty, Young Adult
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