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Cited by 292Energy, Environment, and Transportation PoliciesElectric Vehicles and InfrastructureAdvanced Aircraft Design and Technologies

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 113 of the 113 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 128 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

Open access
Khalili, Siavash, Rantanen, Eetu, Bogdanov, Dmitrii, Breyer, Christian·2019·Energies
DOI 10.3390/en12203870
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Abstract

The pivotal target of the Paris Agreement is to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C above the pre-industrial level and pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. To meet this target, all energy-consuming sectors, including the transport sector, need to be restructured. The transport sector accounted for 19% of the global final energy demand in 2015, of which the vast majority was supplied by fossil fuels (around 31,080 TWh). Fossil-fuel consumption leads to greenhouse gas emissions, which accounted for about 8260 MtCO2eq from the transport sector in 2015. This paper examines the transportation demand that can be expected and how alternative transportation technologies along with new sustainable energy sources can impact the energy demand and emissions trend in the transport sector until 2050. Battery-electric vehicles and fuel-cell electric vehicles are the two most promising technologies for the future on roads. Electric ships and airplanes for shorter distances and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels for longer distances may appear around 2030 onwards to reduce the emissions from the marine and aviation transport modes. The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding, compared to other transport modes. An ambitious scenario for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is applied, also demonstrating the very high relevance of direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector. Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWhel in 2015 to about 51,610 TWhel in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels. While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification. The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles. Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency. The primary energy base of the transport sector switches in the next decades from fossil resources to renewable electricity, driven by higher efficiency and sustainability.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This paper models a global 100% renewable transport transition to 2050 under a 1.5 °C-compatible scenario, covering road, rail, marine, and aviation passenger and freight demand. It finds that despite roughly tripling transport demand, final energy demand stays near 2015 levels due to electrification and efficiency, with fossil fuel demand reduced to zero by 2050.

Key findings

  • Global transport final energy demand remains almost stable: 31,613 TWh in 2015 to 32,542 TWh in 2050, while transport activity rises 257% for passenger and 208% for freight; mechanical energy demand increases 104.5% and primary energy demand 36.3%.
  • Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; electricity demand rises from 125 TWh_el in 2015 to about 51,610 TWh_el in 2050, driven substantially by indirect electricity demand for synthetic fuels.
  • Well-to-wheel efficiency increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050; tank-to-wheel efficiency rises from 31% to 62%, while well-to-tank efficiency falls from 82% to 62%. The primary energy base switches from 95% fossil in 2015 to 98% renewable electricity in 2050.
  • Battery-electric vehicles become the least-cost road option from 2025 onward: LDV BEV LCOM falls from 0.491 €/km in 2015 to 0.281 €/km in 2050, versus LDV ICE rising from 0.299 to 0.350 €/km. GHG emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and 2025 (Discussion; Conclusions says 2025–2030) and decline to zero by 2050.

Methods

  • Scenario-based global transport transition model to 2050 in 5-year intervals, covering four modes—road, rail, marine, and aviation—split into passenger and freight, with country/region resolution across nine major regions using GDP per capita and population to disaggregate demand.
  • Demand data from ICCT, IMO, ICAO, UN population, and Toktarova et al. GDP/capita projections; specific energy demand and fuel shares from literature; road vehicle stock and fuel shares derived via levelized cost of mobility (LCOM) using capex, opex, lifetimes, 7% WACC, and CO₂ price; final energy and GHG emissions calculated via equations, with well-to-wheel/tank-to-wheel efficiency analysis.
  • A single ambitious 1.5 °C-compatible 100% renewable scenario is applied; the paper states it is not intended to compare several scenarios within this framework.

Limitations

  • Stated: the study presents one stringent scenario rather than comparing multiple scenarios; full LCOM is considered only for the road mode, while fuel shares for other modes come from other sources; further research is needed on socio-technical dynamics, material resource limitations, financial parameter setup, and synthetic fuel phase-in.
  • Evident: the analysis relies heavily on exogenous projections and assumptions—GDP, population, technology costs, fuel shares, and lifetimes—without sensitivity analysis; the paper also notes uncertainty about whether hydrogen will dominate marine transport by 2050.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.3390/en12203870

Cites

113 of 113 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

0 of 128 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

Show all 144 claims

  • It may state two separate claims as one. 99
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 38
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
119 of 119

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Transport demand is rapidly increasing.

    “Transport demand is rapidly increasing and, with such high dependence on fossil fuels, there would be serious consequences for human health and energy security-related issues [4] as long as this trend continues.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Global transportation activity will increase by around 2.7% per annum for passengers and 2.3% per annum for freight in the decades to come.

    “It is projected that transport activities benefit from prosperous economic development in the decades to come, which may lead to an average increase in global transportation activity of around 2.7% and 2.3% per annum for passengers and freight, respectively.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Other dry cargoes in marine transport will grow exponentially from 2012 to 2050.

    “From 2012 to 2050, linear approximation is applied for bulk goods, oil transported, and coal freight, and exponential growth for other dry cargoes is assumed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The specific energy demand for trains declines at a linear rate between 2010 and 2050, so intermediate periods can be linearly interpolated.

    “It is assumed that the specific energy demand for trains declines in a linear rate, so that all periods between 2010 and 2050 can be linearly interpolated.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Marine diesel engine efficiency in 2050 is 48%.

    “and for 2050, 48% is assumed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Fuel-to-H2 efficiency increases from 53% to 65% between 2030 and 2050.

    “though fuel-to-H 2 efficiency is assumed to increase from 53% to 65%, from 2030 to 2050, based on [36].”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    As a first-order approximation, revenue passenger km per kg of jet fuel is treated as equal to passenger km per kg.

    “As a first order approximation rp-km/kg is considered to be p-km/kg.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    80% of all domestic shipping is within a range suitable for electrification.

    “it is assumed that 80% of all domestic shipping is within a range for electrification.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    From around 2035 onwards, hydrogen and electricity start to gain market shares for powering airplanes.

    “From around 2035 onwards, it is assumed that hydrogen and electricity start to gain market shares for powering airplanes”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    For 2050, 18.7% of flights measured in passenger kilometers will be electric and 37.4% will be fuel-cell hydrogen.

    “this research assumes for 2050 that 18.7% of the flights measured in passenger kilometers representing short haul flights of less than 1.5 h and half of the flights between 1.5 and 3 h will be electric and twice that is assumed to be contributed by fuel-cellbased flights fueled by hydrogen (37.4%)”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    80% of short-haul flights will be served by all-electric flights in the longer term, achieved between 2050 and 2060.

    “whereas 80% of these flights should be served by all-electric flights in the longer term, which is projected to be achieved between 2050 and 2060.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Battery specific cost declines by 7.9% per year until 2030 and by 2% per year until 2050.

    “A cost reduction of 7.9% per year is assumed until 2030, based on BNEF and UBS assumptions, and 2% per year until 2050.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Power train cost declines by 7.9% per year until 2030 and by 2% per year thereafter.

    “The power train cost reduction is assumed at 7.9% per year until 2030 and 2% per year then onwards [19,97].”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    MDV ICE capex stays stable over the transition period.

    “MDV ICE capex is assumed to stay stable, according to Yeon and Thomas [102]”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Vehicle lifetimes for all vehicle types stay constant until 2050.

    “Vehicle lifetimes for all vehicle types are assumed to stay constant until 2050.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Battery lifetime is identical for BEV and PHEV.

    “Battery lifetime is assumed to be identical for BEV and PHEV, as discussed by Guenther et al. [113].”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Lithium-ion technology is the standard battery for 2W/3W vehicles.

    “lithium-ion technology is assumed as the standard”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    LDV annual mileage is roughly 10,000 km.

    “which is assumed to be roughly 10,000 km for LDV.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    No reduction in efficiency is assumed by 2050.

    “since no reduction in efficiency is assumed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.

    “The load factor for each transport segment is assumed to be identical within each vehicle category.”
    “For example, in the case of LDV BEV, the same average number of passengers in the vehicle as in LDV ICE is assumed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The load factor for MDV and HDV is identical, independent of vehicle type.

    “The load factor for MDV and HDV is measured in tons per vehicle, and it is assumed to be identical, independent of the vehicle type.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.

    “The TTW values for hydrogen and electricity as a final energy fuel are zero.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Hydrogen is emission-free.

    “The final energy fuel hydrogen is emission-free”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.

    “Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Long-distance shipping and flights cannot be directly electrified.

    “As long-distance shipping and flights cannot be directly electrified, the two transport modes marine and aviation cannot benefit from the efficiency gains of electric ships and planes”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    LNG as a marine fuel suffers from the possibility of methane leakage, a major threat due to the very high global warming potential of methane emissions.

    “LNG as a marine fuel suffers from the possibility of methane leakage, which is a major threat for this fuel option due to the very high global warming potential of methane emissions.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Zero GHG emissions for the aviation sector may not be possible with fuel measures alone because contrail-cirrus formation cannot be reduced to zero.

    “recent research indicates that zero GHG emissions for the aviation sector may not be possible with fuel measures alone, since contrail-cirrus formation cannot be reduced to zero”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.

    “whereas the area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Electricity used by BEVs is assumed to be switched to renewable electricity.

    “Then more BEV are based on electricity which is assumed to be also switched to renewable electricity, thus drastically reducing the GHG emissions in the road mode.”
29 of 29

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Two-wheeler ICE energy demand exceeds the stated difference from BEV

    Major

    The method says two-/three-wheeler ICE consumption is 65% higher than BEV consumption. Table 17 gives 2015 values of 0.126 and 0.044 kWh/p-km, respectively: ICE consumption is about 186% higher.

  • ICE is not the highest-cost option from 2025 in every road segment

    Minor

    The discussion says ICE has the highest LCOM from 2025 onward. For BUS in 2025, Table 23 reports ICE at 1.314 €/km and FCEV at 1.753 €/km, making FCEV more costly.

  • Greenpeace advanced-scenario total differs from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion reports 15,703 TWh of final energy demand in 2050 for the Greenpeace advanced scenario, whereas Table 27 lists 14,836 TWh.

  • World Energy Council scenario figures differ from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion gives 37,169 TWh of demand and a 78% fossil-fuel share in 2050. Table 27 instead lists 33,134 TWh and 62% for that scenario.

  • Shell 2050 fossil-fuel share differs from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion says Shell's fossil-hydrocarbon share falls to 80% in 2050, but Table 27 lists a 67% fossil-fuel share.

  • Zero-emissions conclusion conflicts with remaining fuel emissions

    Minor

    The paper concludes that transport reaches zero GHG emissions in 2050, but Table 11 reports nonzero 2050 WTW emissions of 8 gCO2eq/kWh for liquid fuel. Table 25 also reports 10,816 TWh of liquid-fuel demand in 2050.

  • Teske 1.5 °C electricity share differs from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion states a 38% electricity share in 2050 for Teske's 1.5 °C scenario, while Table 27 lists 48%.

  • Jacobson scenario total differs from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion gives Jacobson et al.'s 2050 final energy demand as 16,638 TWh, but Table 27 gives 13,113 TWh.

8 of 8

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Show all 113 references

Research works printed but not linked: 6

  1. Fireman, H., and Arbor, A. (2018, June 28). Designing All Electric Ships. Ninth International Marine Design Conference 2006, University of Michigan, Department USA. NA&ME, Designing All Electric Ships, IMDC’06, 16 May 2006, NAVSEA. Available online: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/presentation/1291/50a6ce6311ca5cf489f48081d249f0a87f5c.pdf.
  2. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2017, January 18). Energy. 1996 IPCC. Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Reference Manual, Chapter 1 Energy. Italy. Available online: https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/.
  3. Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development—Food and Agriculture (OECD-FAO) (2016). Agricultural Outlook, OECD. Available online: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/data/oecd-agriculture-statistics_agr-data-en.
  4. Vodovozov, V., and Lehtla, T. (2017, April 19). Power Accounting for Ship Electric Propulsion. Closing Conference of Doctoral School of Energy and Geotechnology II, Pärnu, Estonia. Available online: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6663/89cd6ba20958fb5e92e46d78683f66fecf89.pdf.
  5. Keiner, 2019, Cost and self-consumption optimized residential PV prosumer system in Germany covering residential electricity, heat and mobility demand, Int. J. Sustain. Energy Plan. Manag., 21, 35
  6. Altermatt, 2018, Riding the workhorse of the industry: PERC, Photovolt. Int., 41, 46

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Metadata

Authors
Khalili, S., Rantanen, E., Bogdanov, D., & Breyer, C.
Affiliations
Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology (FI)
Corresponding author
  • Khalili, Siavash
  • Breyer, Christian
ORCID
Venue
Energies
Publisher
MDPI AG
Published
2019-10-12
Volume
12
Issue
20
Pages
3870
ISSN
1996-1073 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3390/en12203870
OpenAlex
W2979394821
Semantic Scholar
d8beb9d1e1135268eaef88c9b684589c43badaf9
Cited by
290
References
113
Citations by year
2026: 53 · 2025: 51 · 2024: 55 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 25 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 1
FWCI
4.47
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Energies (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation (40101/14)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Aerospace Engineering › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
Keywords
travel demand, transport energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, electrification of transport, battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, synthetic fuels, hydrogen-based fuels, electric ships, electric aviation, railways, power-to-fuels, renewable electricity, fossil fuel demand, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement

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