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Cited by 579Climate Change Policy and EconomicsEnergy, Environment, and Transportation PoliciesClimate Change and Geoengineering

Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being

Open access
Creutzig, Felix, Niamir, Leila, Bai, Xuemei, Callaghan, Max, Cullen, Jonathan, Díaz-José, Julio, Figueroa, Maria, Grubler, Arnulf +18 more·2022·Nature Climate Change
DOI 10.1038/s41558-021-01219-y

Published version of a preprint

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Abstract

Evaluation of mitigation actions often focuses on cost and overlooks the direct effects on well-being. This work shows demand-side measures have large mitigation potential and beneficial effects on well-being outcomes.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Demand-side mitigation options categorized as avoid, shift and improve can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40–80% in end-use sectors, while an expert assessment of 306 well-being/option combinations finds largely beneficial well-being effects. The paper argues these options are synergistic with well-being and depend on changing infrastructures, choice architectures and malleable rather than fixed preferences.

Key findings

  • Demand-side ASI options show high mitigation potential: buildings 78% (6.8 GtCO₂e), land transport 62% (5.8 GtCO₂e), food 41% (7.3 GtCO₂e) and industry 41% (6.5 GtCO₂e); aviation 40% (0.7 GtCO₂e) and shipping 69% (1.3 GtCO₂e).
  • Across 306 combinations of well-being outcomes and demand-side options, 79% (242/306) were positive, 18% (56/306) neutral and 3% (8/306) negative; positive links between mitigation measures and well-being were 19-fold greater than negative links.
  • Energy demand solutions had a ratio of synergies versus trade-offs with SDGs of 5.3, compared with 1.9 for energy supply solutions.
  • Well-being improvements were most notable in health quality (0.61), air (0.59) and energy (0.57) on a scale from −1 to +1; confidence was higher for physical constituents and comparatively low for social constituents.

Methods

  • Mixed- and multi-method framework using workshops (April 2019 with 36 experts; October 2019 with 30 experts; April 2020 virtual with 45 participants), five sectoral teams, and an avoid–shift–improve categorization for buildings, food, transport, urban and industry sectors.
  • Literature review and expert judgement: a database of 54,000 peer-reviewed articles was compiled, 604 references were identified as relevant, and 306 combinations of well-being outcomes and demand-side options were coded on a −3 to +3 scale with evidence, agreement and confidence levels.
  • Mitigation potentials were estimated from sector-specific studies and models, reported as ranges and central values against 2050 IEA stated policy scenario values and IPCC SRCCL food baselines; interaction effects between ASI categories were ignored for the full-potential approximation.

Limitations

  • Stated: social constituents of well-being deserve better quantification; empirical, mechanistic and causal modelling should better address relationships between broad mitigation options and social well-being; future research should assess interaction effects for ASI demand-side options, including via IAMs and sector-specific general equilibrium models.
  • Stated: confidence is low on social dimensions of well-being, literature on social constituents is meagre, most evaluated options have been studied in developed countries, and well-being effects depend on individual and cultural preconditions.
  • Evident from the text: mitigation estimates are approximations based on simple products of individual ASI assessments, ranges are broad, and direct comparison with the LED scenario is impossible because of different metrics and boundary conditions.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41558-021-01219-y

Cites

16 of 16 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 46 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    Demand-side ASI options can reduce industry sector emissions by 41% (6.5 GtCO2e) by 2050.

    “41% (6.5 gigatonnes of CO 2 equivalent (GtCO 2 e)) emission reductions in the industry sector”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Baseline estimates assume the absence of supply-side climate change mitigation.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Factorial decomposition between mitigation strategies is possible.
  • Findingnone given

    The well-being categories health quality, air and energy are also most substantiated in the literature, often under the framing of cobenefits.

    “These categories are also most substantiated in the literature, often under the framing of cobenefits.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    In transport, the paper's assessment suggests up to 70% reduction between 2020 and 2050.

    “In transport, our assessment suggests up to 70% reduction between 2020 and 2050, which is higher than the 59-60% change in energy demand in the LED scenario.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Baseline estimates assume the absence of supply-side climate change mitigation.
  • Findingnone given

    Well-being improvements are most notable in health quality (0.61 on average across all mitigation options on a scale from -1 to +1), air (0.59) and energy (0.57).

    “Well-being improvements are most notable in health quality (0.61 on average across all mitigation options on a scale from -1 to +1), air (0.59) and energy (0.57).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Demand-side options can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40-80% in end-use sectors.

    “We show that these options, bridging socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40-80% in end-use sectors.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Baseline estimates assume the absence of supply-side climate change mitigation.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Factorial decomposition between mitigation strategies is possible.
  • May combine two claims. 23
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 46

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The highest benefits are observed in air, health and energy (high confidence levels), food (medium confidence), mobility (high confidence), economic stability (high confidence) and water (medium-high confidence).

    “The highest benefits are observed in air, health and energy (high confidence levels), food (medium confidence), mobility (high confidence), economic stability (high confidence) and water (medium-high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The relation between demand-side mitigation strategies and social aspects of human well-being is less reflected in the literature, and the assessment finds more neutral/unknown interactions.

    “Although the relation between demand-side mitigation strategies and the social aspects of human well-being is important, this is less reflected in the literature to date and hence our assessment finds more neutral/unknown interactions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Energy demand solutions have a ratio of synergies versus trade-offs with SDGs of 5.3, whereas energy supply solutions show a ratio of 1.9.

    “Our own analysis of the weighted statistics shows that energy demand solutions have a ratio of synergies versus trade-offs with sustainable development goals (SDGs) of 5.3 (with most beneficial strategies in industry and buildings), whereas energy supply solutions show a ratio of 1.9 between synergies and trade-offs (Fig. 2).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Food (0.50), mobility (0.46) and water (0.41) are further categories where well-being is improved.

    “Food (0.50), mobility (0.46) and water (0.41) are further categories where well-being is improved.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    Avoid options are relevant in all sectors.

    “Avoid options are relevant in all sectors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Shared mobility has overall highly beneficial effects on well-being but also displays a few negative consequences, such as a minor decrease in personal security for patrons of ridesourcing.

    “Shared mobility, like all others, has overall highly beneficial effects on well-being but also displays a few negative consequences, depending on implementation, such as a minor decrease in personal security for patrons of ridesourcing (connecting drivers with passengers via apps operated by platform providers).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    In three sectors, demand-side options can go a long way to reaching SDS levels, requiring only additional 1.2 GtCO2 abatement on the supply side in buildings, 0.4 GtCO2 in aviation and 0.1 GtCO2 in shipping.

    “In three sectors, demand-side options can go a long way to reaching SDS levels, requiring only additional 1.2 GtCO 2 abatement on the supply side in buildings, 0.4 GtCO 2 in aviation and 0.1 GtCO 2 in shipping.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Baseline estimates assume the absence of supply-side climate change mitigation.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Confidence in 50% of all cases is medium to high, and it is higher in physical constituents and comparatively low in social constituents of well-being.

    “Although confidence in 50% of all cases is medium to high (between 3 and 5 on a scale of 0-5), it is higher in the physical constituents and comparatively low in the social constituents of well-being.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Demand-side mitigation strategies technically could provide reductions of 78% (6.8 GtCO2e), 62% (5.8 GtCO2e), 41% (7.3 GtCO2e) and 41% (6.3 GtCO2e) in the buildings, transport, food and industry sectors, respectively.

    “Demand-side mitigation strategies technically could provide reductions of 78% (6.8 GtCO 2 e), 62% (5.8 GtCO 2 e), 41% (7.3 GtCO 2 e) and 41% (6.3 GtCO 2 e) in the buildings, transport, food and industry sectors, respectively (black dotted arrows).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    The literature on social constituents, in relation to climate change mitigation, is meagre.

    “Altogether, the literature on social constituents, in relation to climate change mitigation, is meagre.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    Most of the options evaluated have been studied in developed countries.

    “This is particularly true for developing countries, as most of the options evaluated have been studied in developed countries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingreasoning

    The well-being dimensions education, shelter and political stability have lowest confidence, reflecting a respective scarcity in the literature.

    “The well-being dimensions education, shelter and political stability have lowest confidence, reflecting a respective scarcity in the literature.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    It is less clear how greater space availability for pedestrians translates into participation, trust and social protection.

    “it is less clear how greater space availability for pedestrians translates into participation, trust and social protection.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    Ratios of weighted sum of synergies to trade-offs are similar for unweighted sums.

    “Ratios are similar for unweighted sums.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Confidence is highest for the well-being dimensions air, health and mobility, and for the mitigation options compact city, non-motorized transport and building-level sufficiency.

    “Confidence is highest for the well-being dimensions air, health and mobility, and for the mitigation options compact city, non-motorized transport and building-level sufficiency.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The paper's estimates are approximations, as they are simple products of individual assessments for each of the three ASI options.

    “Estimates are approximations, as they are simple products of individual assessments for each of the three ASI options.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    When interactions are taken into account, the full mitigation potentials may be higher or lower.

    “When interactions are taken into account, the full mitigation potentials may be higher or lower, independent of relevant barriers to realization of the median potential estimates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The paper's well-being evaluation used expert judgement by a team of between two and four researchers per sector, with internal review by at least two other researchers, and substantiated with literature evidence.

    “We performed expert judgement by a team of between two and four researchers for each sector, also comprising explicit expertise on social sciences and well-being, and internal review by at least two other researchers, to code impact in categories on a scale of -3 to +3, and substantiated this with evidence from the literature (Fig. 3).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Reducing food waste is a prime no-regret option, accounting for 4.4 GtCO2e emissions, or 8% of total annual GHG emissions if deforestation effects are included.

    “Reducing food waste is a prime no-regret option, accounting for 4.4 GtCO 2 e emissions, or 8% of total annual GHG emissions if deforestation effects associated with wasted food provision are included 20 .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [20] Food Wastage Footprint: Full-Cost Accounting (FAO, 2014).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Urban planning, street space rededication, smart logistical systems and increased street connectivity have the largest potential to reduce the need for travel, with a counterfactual potential of 25% reduction in urban energy use in 2050 considering only newly built cities.

    “Urban planning, street space rededication, smart logistical systems and increased street connectivity with smaller distances have the largest potential to reduce the need for travel 33,34 , with a counterfactual potential of 25% reduction in urban energy use in 2050 considering only newly built cities (repercussion effects in the buildings sector are included in this estimate) 35 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [33] Policy Pathways: A Tale of Renewed Cities (International Energy Agency, 2013).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [34] Creutzig, F. et al. Transport: a roadblock to climate change mitigation? Science 350, 911–912 (2015). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [35] Creutzig, F., Baiocchi, G., Bierkandt, R., Pichler, P.-P. & Seto, K. C. Global typology of urban energy use and potentials for an urbanization mitigation wedge. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 6283–6288 (2015). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    The paper's analysis is based on a database of 54,000 peer-reviewed articles and 604 with identified relevant input.

    “Based on a database of 54,000 peer-reviewed articles and 604 with identified relevant input (Supplementary Tables 34567), we analysed how sectoral demand-side and service-oriented mitigation strategies influence the constituents of well-being.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Demand-side mitigation potentials here are based on opportunities for action available to end users, while not considering supply-side options such as decarbonization of the electricity sector.

    “Demand-side mitigation potentials here are based on opportunities for action available to end users, while not considering supply-side options such as decarbonization of the electricity sector.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Dietary shifts to low-meat, vegetarian or vegan diets can reduce annual GHG emissions by 2050 by 0.7-7.3, 4.3-6.4 and 7.8-8 GtCO2e, respectively.

    “Estimated annual GHG emissions reductions by 2050 associated with dietary shifts to low-meat, vegetarian or vegan diets range from 0.7-7.3,4.3-6.4 and 7.8-8 GtCO 2 e, respectively 24 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [24] Shukla, P. R. et al. (eds) Special Report on Climate Change and Land (IPCC, 2019).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    Mitigation potentials are estimated against 2050 values of the IEA's stated policy scenario and baseline assumption from the IPCC's SRCCL for food.

    “Mitigation potentials are estimated against 2050 values of the IEA's stated policy scenario 58 and baseline assumption from the IPCC's SRCCL for food.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] World Energy Outlook 2020 (IEA, 2020); https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020

      Not checked in the free run.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: Baseline estimates assume the absence of supply-side climate change mitigation.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The paper ignores interaction effects between the three ASI categories to approximate full potential across sectors.

    “To be able to give an approximation for the full potential across sectors, we ignore interaction effects between the three categories.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    The paper systematically coded whether mitigation strategies for each sector have positive, neutral or negative impact on 18 constituents of well-being.

    “We systematically coded whether mitigation strategies for each sector have positive, neutral or negative impact on the 18 constituents of well-being introduced in Fig. 3.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Full electrification of land transport and power-to-fuels for aviation and shipping can completely decarbonize the transport sector while decreasing primary energy required per unit of end-use energy.

    “In most ambitious transport energy models, full electrification of land transport and power-to-fuels for aviation and shipping can completely decarbonize the transport sector while also decreasing primary energy required per unit of end-use energy, in particular in electric land transport 36 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [36] Khalili, S., Rantanen, E., Bogdanov, D. & Breyer, C. Global transportation demand development with impacts on the energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in a climate-constrained world. Energies 12, 3870 (2019). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Health and air quality effects in the buildings sector are well quantified and notable.

    “although health and air quality effects are well quantified and notable 74”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [74] Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Herrero, S. T., Dubash, N. K. & Lecocq, F. Measuring the co-benefits of climate change mitigation. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 39, 549–582 (2014). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Even the most optimistic upscaling of low-carbon technologies would remain insufficient to meet currently projected energy demand in 2050, as approximately required by the Paris Agreement.

    “Even the most optimistic upscaling of low-carbon technologies would remain insufficient to meet currently projected energy demand in 2050, as approximately required by the Paris Agreement.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The health benefits of active travel and reduced noise of motorized transport in cities are mostly understood.

    “while the health benefits of active travel and reduced noise of motorized transport in cities are mostly understood”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The second workshop was held in person in October 2019 with 30 experts.

    “The second workshop was also held in person, in October 2019 with 30 experts, including sectoral team experts and reviewers (Extended Data Fig. 3).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Our evaluation suggests that a high quality of accessibility can be justified as a starting point for transport planning.

    “Instead, our evaluation suggests that a high quality of accessibility can be justified as a starting point for transport planning.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The first workshop was held in person in April 2019 with the participation of 36 experts.

    “The first workshop was held in person in April 2019 with the participation of 36 experts, including sectoral (building, food, transport, urban and industry) experts and energy demand-side, technology, finance, well-being and social scientists.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    Judgements for existing relationships between demand-side options and well-being were supported with 604 references.

    “While not all combinations were judged relevant, we supported judgements for existing relationships between demand-side options and well-being with 604 references.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    All steps were subjected to three rounds of internal review including by social scientists and well-being-, sector- and domain-specific experts.

    “Furthermore, all steps were subjected to three rounds of internal review including by social scientists and well-being-, sector-and domain-specific experts (Supplementary Tables 34567).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Supplementary Table 1 shows the internal review, together with well-being tables, conducted by a team of experts of whom nine members had relevant sectoral and/or social science expertise.

    “Supplementary Table 1 shows the internal review, together with well-being tables, conducted by the team of experts of whom nine members had relevant sectoral and/or social science expertise (Extended Data Fig. 3).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The level of evidence and degree of agreement were evaluated by sectoral expert teams based on the amount, quality and consistency of evidence.

    “The level of evidence (limited, medium or robust) and degree of agreement (low, medium or high) represented by and , respectively, in Supplementary Tables 34567, were evaluated by sectoral expert teams based on the amount, quality and consistency of evidence.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

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    Premisecitation

    Teleworking is ambiguous: if designed without face-to-face interaction, teleworking may result in social isolation.

    “Teleworking is ambiguous: if designed without face-to-face interaction, teleworking may result in social isolation 67”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [67] Golden, T. D., Veiga, J. F. & Dino, R. N. The impact of professional isolation on teleworker job performance and turnover intentions: does time spent teleworking, interacting face-to-face, or having access to communication-enhancing technology matter? J. Appl. Psychol. 93, 1412–1421 (2008). source

      Not checked in the free run.

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    Premisecitation

    A transition requires investments into new products and business models with an uncertain outlook on future profits and a psychological transition away from mental models and expertise that were successful in the past.

    “A transition requires not only investments into new products and business models with an uncertain outlook on future profits, but also a psychological transition away from mental models and expertise that were successful in the past 68”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [68] Doray, N. Cognitive Biases in Corporate Climate Action: How Industry Leaders are Mitigating Cognitive Bias in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy. PhD thesis, York Univ. (2019).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Active mobility aligns with dominant urban sector strategies and, in particular, compact cities that enable accessibility with non-motorized transport.

    “Active mobility also aligns with dominant urban sector strategies and, in particular, compact cities that enable accessibility with non-motorized transport.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    Demand-side mitigation potentials were assessed through a comprehensive literature review and in several stages, with lower and upper boundaries and centre identified based on expert judgement and literature.

    “Demand-side mitigation potentials were assessed through a comprehensive literature review and in several stages.The lower and upper boundaries and centre were identified and reportedin rounded numbers-based on both expert judgement and what was presented in the literature.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    All workshop discussions were documented and shared with participants.

    “All discussions (two broad rounds and 11 subgroup discussions) were documented and shared with participants.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In transport, planning decisions are often made based on observed demand of transport modes and distances.

    “For example, in transport, planning decisions are often made based on observed demand of transport modes and distances.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Many of Germany's engineers are proud of their world-class expertise in the manufacture of internal combustion engines, and acknowledging that this expertise now lacks a viable future is a considerable psychological challenge.

    “For example, many of Germany's engineers are proud of their world-class expertise in the manufacture of internal combustion engines, and acknowledging that this expertise now lacks a viable future is a considerable psychological challenge and a call for strategic planning 69”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [69] Mazur, C., Contestabile, M., Offer, G. J. & Brandon, N. P. Assessing and comparing German and UK transition policies for electric mobility. Environ. Innov. Soc. Transit. 14, 84–100 (2015). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The level of confidence was expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high.

    “The level of confidence was expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, represented by asterisks in 34567.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Confidence in the validity of a finding was based on the type, amount, quality and consistency of evidence and the degree of agreement.

    “Confidence in the validity of a finding was based on the type, amount, quality and consistency of evidence (for example, mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgement), and the degree of agreement (Supplementary Tables 34567).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Well-being analysis closes an epistemic gap.

    “Well-being analysis closes an epistemic gap”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The meat industry is organized around efficient and highly scaled animal meat production, challenged by a transformation towards low-carbon-intensive nutrition services.

    “Similarly, the meat industry is organized around efficient and highly scaled animal meat production, challenged by a transformation towards low-carbon-intensive nutrition services.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Modelling captures the premise that, with food and transport choices, the low-carbon option makes people healthier because it incentives them to eat a healthier diet and exercise more.

    “modelling captures the premise that, with food and transport choices, the low-carbon option makes people healthier because it incentives them to eat a healthier diet and exercise more 77,78”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [77] Springmann, M. et al. Health-motivated taxes on red and processed meat: a modelling study on optimal tax levels and associated health impacts. PLoS ONE 13, e0204139 (2018). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [78] Sulikova, S., van den Bijgaart, I., Klenert, D. & Mattauch, L. Optimal Fuel Taxation with Suboptimal Health Choices Working Paper in Economics 794 (Univ. of Gothenburg, 2020); https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/gunwpe/0794.html source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Confidence of well-being impacts was coded for all 306 combinations.

    “we also coded for the confidence of well-being impacts in all 306 combinations (Extended Data Fig. 2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Evaluation of well-being requires an understanding of malleable preferences and the opportunity to redesign infrastructures and services in different ways.

    “Evaluation of well-being requires an understanding of malleable preferences, and the opportunity to redesign infrastructures and services in different ways”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Teams of experts evaluated the associated evidence, agreement and confidence levels of each entry.

    “In addition, to develop our key findings, the teams of experts evaluated the associated evidence, agreement and confidence levels of each entry.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The concurrent analysis of demand-side mitigation options and their well-being effects allows for tentative prioritization of mitigation options.

    “the concurrent analysis of demand-side mitigation options and their well-being effects allows for tentative prioritization of mitigation options.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The study synthesizes the expert teams' judgement about the validity of findings through evaluation of evidence and agreement.

    “It synthesizes the expert teams' judgement about the validity of findings as determined through evaluation of evidence and agreement.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Compact cities and urban system solutions have strong, albeit ambiguous, effects on well-being, and positive outcomes depend on urban design.

    “Compact cities and urban system solutions have strong, albeit ambiguous, effects on well-being, and positive outcomes depend on urban design 65,66”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [65] Burton, E. in Sustainable Urban Form (eds Burton, E. et al.) 19–29 (Routledge, 2000).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [66] Raman, S. Designing a liveable compact city: physical forms of city and social life in urban neighbourhoods. Built Environ. 36, 63–80 (2010). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Behavioural responses, including dietary and mobility choices, depend on choices of new service delivery systems, new products, infrastructure designs and access to technologies.

    “Behavioural responses, including dietary and mobility choices, depend on choices of new service delivery systems, new products, infrastructure designs and access to technologies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Sectoral teams' findings were subjected to an internal review process before the second workshop.

    “Sectoral teams reported back their findings before the second workshop for an internal review process (Extended Data Fig. 3).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    The impact of each demand-side mitigation strategy on well-being dimensions was coded as -3 to +3 by teams of experts based on existing literature and scientific judgement.

    “The potential of each demand-side mitigation strategy on well-being dimensions was evaluated by the teams of experts based on the existing literature and the experts' scientific judgement.The impact was coded as -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2 and +3, denoting highly negative to highly positive impact.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Experts were academics with expertise in climate change mitigation and well-being evaluation in at least one sector, demonstrated by publication track records.

    “Experts were academics with expertise in climate change mitigation and well-being evaluation (for example, via the cobenefit approach) in at least one sector, as demonstrated by publication track records.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Active mobility's additional effect would further amplify health benefits and alleviate the burden of very high BEV scale-up until 2050.

    “its additional effect would not only further amplify health benefits but also alleviate the burden of very high BEV scale-up until 2050.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Visible solar photovoltaic panels and digital tools for energy saving are related to belonging and self-efficacy, thus contributing to the social domains of well-being.

    “visible solar photovoltaic panels and digital tools for energy saving are also related to belonging and self-efficacy 75,76 , thus contributing to the social domains of well-being.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [75] Dastrup, S. R., Zivin, J. G., Costa, D. L. & Kahn, M. E. Understanding the solar home price premium: electricity generation and ‘green’ social status. Eur. Economic Rev. 56, 961–973 (2012). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [76] Ramakrishnan, A. & Creutzig, F. Status consciousness in energy consumption decisions: a systematic review. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 053010 (2021). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The electric mobility strategy improves air quality and concurrent health.

    “This strategy improves air quality and concurrent health”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [70] Wang, T. et al. Health co-benefits of achieving sustainable net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in California. Nat. Sustain. 3, 597–605 (2020). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The revised versions of Table 1 and Supplementary Tables 3-7 were again reviewed by five experts.

    “The revised versions of Table 1 and Supplementary Tables 3-7 were again reviewed by five experts (Extended Data Fig. 3).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    To improve the validity and reliability of the study and avoid bias in the experts' opinions, a comprehensive literature database on demand-side mitigation strategies and well-being was designed with the help of a systematic literature survey and machine learning techniques.

    “To improve the validity and reliability of this study and avoid bias in the experts' opinions, with the help of a systematic literature survey and machine learning techniques a comprehensive literature database on demand-side mitigation strategies and well-being was designed.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    In the second round of internal review, at least two reviewers (members of the author team), based on their expertise, were assigned to look at three or four well-being dimensions over five sectors and to review and evaluate the sectoral teams' assessments.

    “In the second round of internal review, at least two reviewers (members of the author team), based on their expertise, were assigned to look at three or four well-being dimensions over five sectors, and to review and evaluate the sectoral teams' assessments.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
65 of 65

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Preferences are malleable rather than fixed.

    “Implementing such nuanced solutions is based axiomatically on an understanding of malleable rather than fixed preferences, and procedurally on changing infrastructures and choice architectures.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is no single straightforward and agreed on metric of well-being.

    “In particular, answering the second question is a considerable challenge because there is no single straightforward and agreed on metric of well-being.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Baseline estimates assume the absence of supply-side climate change mitigation.

    “Baseline estimates for 2050 are from IEA stated policy scenario in energy sectors, and from the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) and additional sources in the food sector, and thus assume the absence of supply-side climate change mitigation (Supplementary information).”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Factorial decomposition between mitigation strategies is possible.

    “Mitigation potential is estimated from sector-specific studies and models, and is reported in percentages to account for potentially diverging baselines and interaction terms with other mitigation strategies (valid if factorial decomposition between mitigation strategies is possible).”
4 of 4

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • EVs are only able to provide limited decarbonization potential in regions with high grid carbon intensities.

    “However, this research has indicated, alongside other studies [39,41,89,91], that EVs are only able to provide limited decarbonization potential in regions with high grid carbon intensities.”

    From A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America (2023) · cites this paper as [89]

    The table in “Implications for near-term mitigation pathways” estimates BEV emissions reductions using electricity from a medium-decarbonized power system, and “Prioritizing demand-side options according to well-being” links zero land-transport emissions to a 100% renewable electricity sector. These passages support the importance of the electricity mix, but our copy does not state that EVs have only limited decarbonization potential in regions with high grid carbon intensity. Page numbers were not available in the indexed passages. (LLM, conf=0.78)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Higher occupancy in shared mobility systems leads to more effective results.

    “Higher occupancy in shared mobility systems leads to more effective results [89,95].”

    From A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America (2023) · cites this paper as [89]

  • Transport-related choices affect the wellbeing of end users, with notable health impacts due to air pollution and noise pollution.

    “Transport-related choices affect the wellbeing of end users, with notable health impacts due to air pollution and noise pollution [89].”

    From A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America (2023) · cites this paper as [89]

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Industry mitigation amount differs between Fig. 1 and Table 1

    Minor

    Fig. 1 reports 6.3 GtCO2e of industry reductions, whereas Table 1 reports 6.5 GtCO2e for the same 41% mitigation potential.

  • Literature-search combination count does not match its dimensions

    Minor

    The stated 17 mitigation strategies and 19 well-being dimensions yield 323 combinations, not 360.

    Reported 360 · recomputed 323

2 of 2

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Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Creutzig, F., Niamir, L., Bai, X., Callaghan, M., Cullen, J., Díaz-José, J., Figueroa, M., Grubler, A., Lamb, W. F., Leip, A., Masanet, E., Mata, É., Mattauch, L., Minx, J. C., Mirasgedis, S., Mulugetta, Y., Nugroho, S. B., Pathak, M., Perkins, P., Roy, J., de la Rue du Can, S., Saheb, Y., Some, S., Steg, L., Steinberger, J., & Ürge-Vorsatz, D.
Affiliations
  • Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
  • Australian National University (AU)
  • University of Leeds (GB)
  • University of Cambridge (GB)
  • Copenhagen Business School (DK)
  • Joint Research Centre (IT)
  • University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
  • IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute (SE)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • National Observatory of Athens (GR)
  • University College London (GB)
  • Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (JP)
  • Ahmedabad University (IN)
  • York University (CA)
  • Jadavpur University (IN)
  • University of Lausanne (CH)
  • University of Groningen (NL)
Corresponding author
Creutzig, Felix
ORCID
Venue
Nature Climate Change
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2021-11-25
Volume
12
Issue
1
Pages
36-46
ISSN
  • 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
  • 1758-6798
DOI
10.1038/s41558-021-01219-y
OpenAlex
W3131956693
Cited by
579
References
16
Citations by year
2026: 142 · 2025: 139 · 2024: 138 · 2023: 102 · 2022: 56 · 2013: 2
FWCI
56.59
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • SERVAL (Université de Lausanne) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • IRIS (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Cambridge University Engineering Department Publications Database (submittedVersion)
  • Institutional Repositories DataBase (IRDB) (submittedVersion)
  • Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
  • IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
  • CBS Research Portal (Copenhagen Business School) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders
  • Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (FKZ 011G1806A, 03SFK5J0, 01LG1910A)
  • Robert Bosch Stiftung
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
  • Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
Keywords
climate change mitigation, well-being, cost-benefit analysis, emission reduction potential

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

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Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.

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