The DOI matches its Crossref record; 113 of the 113 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 1 of the 128 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World
Open accessAbstract
The pivotal target of the Paris Agreement is to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C above the pre-industrial level and pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. To meet this target, all energy-consuming sectors, including the transport sector, need to be restructured. The transport sector accounted for 19% of the global final energy demand in 2015, of which the vast majority was supplied by fossil fuels (around 31,080 TWh). Fossil-fuel consumption leads to greenhouse gas emissions, which accounted for about 8260 MtCO2eq from the transport sector in 2015. This paper examines the transportation demand that can be expected and how alternative transportation technologies along with new sustainable energy sources can impact the energy demand and emissions trend in the transport sector until 2050. Battery-electric vehicles and fuel-cell electric vehicles are the two most promising technologies for the future on roads. Electric ships and airplanes for shorter distances and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels for longer distances may appear around 2030 onwards to reduce the emissions from the marine and aviation transport modes. The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding, compared to other transport modes. An ambitious scenario for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is applied, also demonstrating the very high relevance of direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector. Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWhel in 2015 to about 51,610 TWhel in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels. While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification. The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles. Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency. The primary energy base of the transport sector switches in the next decades from fossil resources to renewable electricity, driven by higher efficiency and sustainability.
Overview
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This paper models a global 100% renewable transport transition to 2050 under a 1.5 °C-compatible scenario, covering road, rail, marine, and aviation passenger and freight demand. It finds that despite roughly tripling transport demand, final energy demand stays near 2015 levels due to electrification and efficiency, with fossil fuel demand reduced to zero by 2050.
Key findings
- Global transport final energy demand remains almost stable: 31,613 TWh in 2015 to 32,542 TWh in 2050, while transport activity rises 257% for passenger and 208% for freight; mechanical energy demand increases 104.5% and primary energy demand 36.3%.
- Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; electricity demand rises from 125 TWh_el in 2015 to about 51,610 TWh_el in 2050, driven substantially by indirect electricity demand for synthetic fuels.
- Well-to-wheel efficiency increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050; tank-to-wheel efficiency rises from 31% to 62%, while well-to-tank efficiency falls from 82% to 62%. The primary energy base switches from 95% fossil in 2015 to 98% renewable electricity in 2050.
- Battery-electric vehicles become the least-cost road option from 2025 onward: LDV BEV LCOM falls from 0.491 €/km in 2015 to 0.281 €/km in 2050, versus LDV ICE rising from 0.299 to 0.350 €/km. GHG emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and 2025 (Discussion; Conclusions says 2025–2030) and decline to zero by 2050.
Methods
- Scenario-based global transport transition model to 2050 in 5-year intervals, covering four modes—road, rail, marine, and aviation—split into passenger and freight, with country/region resolution across nine major regions using GDP per capita and population to disaggregate demand.
- Demand data from ICCT, IMO, ICAO, UN population, and Toktarova et al. GDP/capita projections; specific energy demand and fuel shares from literature; road vehicle stock and fuel shares derived via levelized cost of mobility (LCOM) using capex, opex, lifetimes, 7% WACC, and CO₂ price; final energy and GHG emissions calculated via equations, with well-to-wheel/tank-to-wheel efficiency analysis.
- A single ambitious 1.5 °C-compatible 100% renewable scenario is applied; the paper states it is not intended to compare several scenarios within this framework.
Limitations
- Stated: the study presents one stringent scenario rather than comparing multiple scenarios; full LCOM is considered only for the road mode, while fuel shares for other modes come from other sources; further research is needed on socio-technical dynamics, material resource limitations, financial parameter setup, and synthetic fuel phase-in.
- Evident: the analysis relies heavily on exogenous projections and assumptions—GDP, population, technology costs, fuel shares, and lifetimes—without sensitivity analysis; the paper also notes uncertainty about whether hydrogen will dominate marine transport by 2050.
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Claims the paper makes
88 Not checked yet · 73 No basis given · 59 Own interpretation · 42 Own result · 1 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“In terms of marine passenger specific energy demand, Becken [82] indicated that for a couple of marine passenger transport types, including ferries and cruise ships, the average value is about 2.5 MJ th /p-km for 2010.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.3. Marine Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [82] Becken, S. (2015). Tourism and Oil, Preparing for the Challenge, Tourism Essential. Channel View Publications. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The introduction and §1.2, “Purpose and Structure of This Book” (page unavailable), discuss tourism’s energy use and transport generally but give no marine passenger energy-demand figure. Searches for 2.5 MJ, ferries and cruise ships, and marine passenger energy demand in 2010 found no passage supporting the stated average. (LLM, conf=0.72)
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In the paper
“Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
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“Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWh el in 2015 to about 51,610 TWh el in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
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- Rests on an assumption: Global transportation activity will increase by around 2.7% per annum for passengers and 2.3% per annum for freight in the decades to come.
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In the paper
“The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
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“While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
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- Rests on an assumption: Global transportation activity will increase by around 2.7% per annum for passengers and 2.3% per annum for freight in the decades to come.
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In the paper
“BEV shows the least opex fixed of all road transport segments.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
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In the paper
“The structural result is that for all transport segments, the BEV option shows the least LCOM from 2025 onwards”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
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“2W/3W BEV appears to be the most efficient vehicles for passenger transportation in the road transport mode with 0.044 kWh el /p-km”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.
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In the paper
“MDV ICE, the least efficient with a consumption of 0.751 kWh th /t-km, as it requires more energy with less ton capacity.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.
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“Second-highest opex fixed can be observed in ICE vehicles, due to the maintenance cost, which is a consequence of the relatively high complexity of ICE, compared to the lower complex FCEV and in particular, BEV.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
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“the relative end-use efficiency places hydrogen-based solutions between direct electricity-based options and liquid-fuel options, which are currently in use.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
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“This is expected to change, so that the electricity demand for MDV and HDV will be 82.4% and 54.7% in 2050, respectively, taking into account the BEV share plus the PHEV share with the respective utility factor.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
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- Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.
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“By 2050, the fuel shares in the marine mode are comprised of 20% LNG, 45% hydrogen, 26% liquid fuel, and 9% electricity, which is used for domestic shipping.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
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“The specific energy demand declines over time for all road transport segments and vehicle types, due to enhancements in vehicle technology.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
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“The highest energy efficiency of freight transportation is enabled by ships.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
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“Similar to LDV, MDV and HDV are operated by liquid fuels in the beginning of the transition period with a negligible share of electricity.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
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“The relative efficiency of the vehicle types is a structural element of the results, since the least specific final energy demand is required for BEV, followed by FCEV, PHEV, and finally, ICE.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
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“All transport modes are faced with strong global transportation demand growth, as also mentioned in Section 2.1.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.1. Global, Regional, and Country Level Transportation Demand
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“The PHEV option outperforms the ICE option for all road transport segments form 2025 onwards”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
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“The fundamental insights for the relative efficiencies of electricity, hydrogen, and liquid-fuel-based options can be observed in all four transport modes.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
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“Hydrogen used for LDV reaches a maximum share of 8.6% in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
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In the paper
“The steep decline in the capex of batteries can be observed for all road transport segments.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Table 19.
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“The most prominent decline is that of specific energy demand for the road mode, as summarized in Table 11.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
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“which requires about 105% more mechanical energy”
- Also stated in: § 4.1. Data Analysis · plain
“mechanical energy demand grows by 105%”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
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“Meanwhile, in 2050, renewable electricity supplies 98% of the energy need for the transport sector via direct and indirect electrification.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
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“The conversion efficiency from primary energy to final energy fuels decreases from 82% in 2015 to 62% in 2050, which is mainly caused by synthetic fuel production for the marine and aviation transport modes”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
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“Figure 15 also reveals that the primary energy base for the transport sector is fully exchanged during the transition process, from 95% fossil-fuel dominance in 2015 to 98% renewable electricity dominance in 2050.”
- Also stated in: § 4.1. Data Analysis · plain
“The drastic primary energy switch from 95% fossil sources in 2015 to 98% renewable electricity in 2050 is a consequence of several major trends”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
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“but for 36% more primary energy demand”
- Also stated in: § 4.1. Data Analysis · plain
“The requirement of electricity-based synthetic fuels leads to an increase in primary energy demand of 36%”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
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“This compares to the 12,880 TWh of LNG and liquid hydrocarbon demand identified in this research.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
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“This growth can be observed for all transport modes and transport segments on a global scale.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
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“Aviation passenger and marine freight will evolve as the main GHG emission contributing transport segments, from around 2035 to 2040 onwards.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.4. Total GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.
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“FCEV emerges as the second least LCOM in all road transport segments”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
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“The overall efficiency in the transport sector is drastically increased from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, i.e., by 50%, measured in mechanical energy at the vehicles versus the total primary energy input for the global transport sector.”
- Also stated in: § 4.1. Data Analysis · hedged
“The overall transport sector WTW efficiency can be increased by 50% from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, which is a clear benefit of overall direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
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“All road transport segments show the same fundamental result: dominance of BEV, which is driven by high efficiency power trains, competitive fuel costs, declining GHG emissions, projected rapid cost decline of batteries and finally a lower level of complexity compared to ICE vehicles, leading to lower maintenance costs.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
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In the paper
“Electricity grows from a final energy demand supply of 2% in 2015 to 35% in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The first road transport segment for which BEV is the least LCOM solution is BUS, which is indicated by the fast ramp-up of BUS BEV in China [146] and already full 100% BUS BEV penetration in Shenzhen [147,148].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [146] Du, 2019, Evaluating the technological evolution of battery electric buses: China as a case, Energy source
- Not checked yetcites [147] Transport and Environment (2019, May 01). Electric Buses Arrive on Time. Market Place, Economy, Technology, Environmental and Policy Perspectives for Fully Electric Buses in the UE. Available online: https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/Electric%20buses%20arrive%20on%20time.pdf.
- Not checked yetcites [148] Zart, N. (2017). 100% Electric Bus Fleet for Shenzhen (Population 11.9 Million) by End of 2017. Clean Technica. Available online: https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/12/100-electric-bus-fleet-shenzhen-pop-11-9-million-end-2017/.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This strong transportation demand is not translated into final energy demand, which remains roughly constant”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Interestingly, if all the 2050 technologies could be used at present, the final energy demand for the transport sector would reduce from about 31,610 TWh to about 21,370 TWh.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“About 76% of all GHG emissions are contributed by the road mode in 2015, as shown in Figure 7.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Road passenger LDV is the dominant segment for GHG emissions.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.4. Total GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The total final energy demand peaks around 2025 to 2030 and declines in the following years by about 9% until 2050, despite the continued growth of transportation demand.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The dominant role of the road mode in 2015 with a final energy demand of about 76% is substantially reduced to about 45% in 2050, due to a massive shift towards higher efficient BEV.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“whereas the conversion efficiency from final energy fuels to mechanical energy is drastically increased from 31% in 2015 to 62% in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, a bit more than 50% of all final energy demand in 2050 is needed to cover marine and aviation transportation.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even more interesting, using today's technology status for the transportation demand in 2050, the energy demand would drastically rise to about 90,500 TWh, which is about 280% of the final energy demand derived with technological progress and fuel shift, as projected in this research.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not all transport modes benefit from the strong shift towards direct electricity, as for marine and aviation.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From about 2025 onwards and more prominently from 2030 onwards, the relative final energy demand of the road mode declines, because of strong direct electrification with BEV in all road transport modes.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“only about 3% more final energy fuels are needed”
- Also stated in: § 4.1. Data Analysis · plain
“a growth of only 3% in final energy fuels enables a 105% growth in mechanical energy”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § 4.1. Data Analysis · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The road transport mode has been investigated in this study with clear results that in the 2020s the road mode switches to BEV solutions at a high level of probability, driven by least LCOM.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The central finding of this study is that a by about 210% (freight) and 260% (passenger) increased global transportation demand by 2050 can be managed by a stable final energy demand compared to 2015.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“LDV | BEV PHEV | % % | 0.2 0.2 | 1.3 1.3 | 4.8 4.8 | 19.1 7.9 | 42.5 10.0 | 61.9 10.0 | 71.8 10.0 | 74.4 10.0”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For shorter distances direct electric transportation is also projected for marine and aviation.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The primary energy base of the transport sector is practically entirely switched from fossil fuels to renewable electricity.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“this study | 2019 | 31,613 | 34,799 | 35,848 | 35,609 | 33,761 | 32,177 | 31,758 | 32,542 | 0 | 1 | 63 | 35”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“ICE | % | 89.4 | 85.7 | 71.1 | 46.3 | 22.7 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 3.9”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“BUS | BEV PHEV | % % | 10.0 0.5 | 13.5 0.7 | 27.6 1.2 | 51.5 2.1 | 74.2 3.0 | 86.9 4.1 | 90.0 5.1 | 90.0 6.0”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“FCEV | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 8.6”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The central finding of this study is that a by about 210% (freight) and 260% (passenger) increased global transportation demand by 2050 can be managed by a stable final energy demand compared to 2015.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“LDV | BEV PHEV | % % | 0.2 0.2 | 1.3 1.3 | 4.8 4.8 | 19.1 7.9 | 42.5 10.0 | 61.9 10.0 | 71.8 10.0 | 74.4 10.0”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This will lead in 2035 and 2040 to a majority GHG emission contribution of marine and aviation transportation which may induce a fast-accelerating pressure on ship operators and airlines to drastically reduce their GHG emissions by fuel switch to defossilized fuels.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The GHG emissions in the transport sector are projected to peak between 2025 and 2030.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“HDV | BEV PHEV | % % | 0.0 0.0 | 0.4 0.4 | 3.3 1.1 | 8.6 2.1 | 18.3 3.1 | 33.1 5.2 | 44.3 9.9 | 50.0 13.9”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“HDV | BEV PHEV | % % | 0.0 0.0 | 0.4 0.4 | 3.3 1.1 | 8.6 2.1 | 18.3 3.1 | 33.1 5.2 | 44.3 9.9 | 50.0 13.9”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The central finding of this study is that a by about 210% (freight) and 260% (passenger) increased global transportation demand by 2050 can be managed by a stable final energy demand compared to 2015.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“FCEV | % | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“relative change | 36.3% | 2.9% | 104.5% | 257% | 208%”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This leads to a decline of the road final energy demand share of about 80% in 2015 to about 50% in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“FCEV | % | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 9.5 | 19.3 | 27.1 | 30.0”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Form 2025 onwards, the ICE vehicles are the highest LCOM option and thus will lose quickly market shares of newly sold vehicles and with a lifetime-dependent delay this will also have a strong impact on the vehicle stock, which is expected to mainly switch from ICE to BEV by 2035 to 2040.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“BUS | BEV PHEV | % % | 10.0 0.5 | 13.5 0.7 | 27.6 1.2 | 51.5 2.1 | 74.2 3.0 | 86.9 4.1 | 90.0 5.1 | 90.0 6.0”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Economic analyses for the road mode have revealed that electricity-based BEV will become the dominant newly sold vehicle type from 2025 onwards due to least LCOM of all vehicle options.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Form 2025 onwards, the ICE vehicles are the highest LCOM option and thus will lose quickly market shares of newly sold vehicles and with a lifetime-dependent delay this will also have a strong impact on the vehicle stock, which is expected to mainly switch from ICE to BEV by 2035 to 2040.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hydrogen-based FCEV are close to BEV and therefore may receive some market shares and can be regarded as major backup option in case of slower than expected BEV development.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“ICE | % | 100 | 99.1 | 94.7 | 86.6 | 69.2 | 42.4 | 18.7 | 6.1”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector increases substantially the well-to-wheel efficiency from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, despite the more energy intensive production processes of electricity-based liquid hydrocarbon fuels.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Global transportation activity will increase by around 2.7% per annum for passengers and 2.3% per annum for freight in the decades to come.
In the paper
“For electric airplanes, there is a need to use batteries for power supply, which leads to an efficiency enhancement from 30% to 80% from turboprop engine to a full battery-electric system, according to Mueller et al. [84].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.4. Aviation Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [84] Mueller, J.K., Bensmann, A., and Bensmann, B. (2018). Design Considerations for the Electrical Power Supply of Future Civil Aircraft with Active High-Lift Systems. Energies, 11. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Transportation activities and their future growth mostly depend on the growth of GDP per capita and population [61].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.1. The Role of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Population in Transportation Demand Projections
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [61] Garcia, C., Levy, S., Limäo, S., and Kupfer, F. (2017, May 14). Correlation Between Transport Intensity and GDP in European Regions: A New Approach, 8th Swiss Transport Research Conference, Monte Verit/Ascona. Available online: http://www.strc.ch/2008/2008_Garcia_Levy_Limao_Kupfer_TransportIntensity_GDP.pdf.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Presently, the marine mode is practically powered solely by liquid fuels for both passenger and freight transport, neglecting small shares of methane-based LNG [85] and electric ships [86].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.3. Fuel-Share Distribution of Transport Modes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [85] Parfomak, P.W., Frittelli, J., Lattanzio, R.K., and Patner, M. (2017, October 19). LNG as a Marine Fuel: Prospects and Policy. Available online: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45488.pdf.
- Not checked yetcites [86] Misyris, 2017, On battery state estimation algorithms for electric ship applications, Electr. Power Syst. Res. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWh el in 2015 to about 51,610 TWh el in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The primary energy base of the transport sector switches in the next decades from fossil resources to renewable electricity, driven by higher efficiency and sustainability.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“In 2015, the global transport sector consumed approximately 31,310 TWh of final energy [1] and represented around 14% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017). World Energy Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“This leads to electricity and liquid fuel shares for the rail modes in 2050 of 86% and 14%, respectively.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.3. Fuel-Share Distribution of Transport Modes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34] Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution (2015). A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, 100% Renewable Energy for All, Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution. Available online: https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/greenpeace_energy-revolution_erneuerbare_2050_20150921.pdf.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“For electric ships, a mileage limitation to maximum of 100 km on a single charge of lithium batteries is expected [87,88].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.3. Fuel-Share Distribution of Transport Modes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [87] National Post (2018, September 18). Norway is Building Some of the World’s first Battery-Powered Ferries. Will They Lead the Way in Cutting Maritime Pollution?. Available online: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/will-new-electric-ferries-lead-the-way-in-cutting-maritime-pollution.
- Not checked yetcites [88] Newsweek (2018, April 28). World’s First Electric Ships Now Sailing in China-and Hauling Coal. Available online: https://www.newsweek.com/worlds-first-electric-ship-now-sailing-china-and-hauling-coal-740015.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“In 2015, the global transport sector consumed approximately 31,310 TWh of final energy [1] and represented around 14% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017). World Energy Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An ambitious scenario for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is applied, also demonstrating the very high relevance of direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Fulton [79] investigated that FCEV trucks have 40% lower consumption compared with ICE trucks.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > DR =
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Fulton [79] Fulton, L., and Eads, G. (2018, March 16). IEA/SMP Model Documentation and Reference Case Projection. Available online: http://www.libralato.co.uk/docs/SMP%20model%20guidance%202004.pdf.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The ratio of battery electric to ICE efficiency develops from 2.16 to 1.80 from2015 to 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.3. Marine Specific Energy Demand
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The two dominating factors, which affect the growth in transportation activities are economic activity and population development.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.1. The Role of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Population in Transportation Demand Projections
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [60] Fang, B., and Han, X. (2018, March 16). Available online: http://www.e-ajd.net/source-pdf/nouveau/ajd-41-fang-han-4-december-2000.pdf.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Airfreight demand is projected to grow by 6% per year until 2035 according to ICAO [72].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.4. Aviation Transportation Activity
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [72] International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (2008). Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP), Agenda Item 3: Forecasting and Economic Analysis Support Group (FESG), International Civil Aviation Organization. Available online: http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/www.icao.int/ContentPages/108603156.pdf.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Fossil oil plays an integral role in all means of transport including road, rail, marine, and aviation with roughly 28,840 TWh final energy consumption in 2015 [1].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017). World Energy Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The respective ratio of fuel-cell to ICE efficiency for ships develops from 1.08 to 1.27, from 2030 to 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.3. Marine Specific Energy Demand
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Fuel-to-H2 efficiency increases from 53% to 65% between 2030 and 2050.
In the paper
“They also investigate the efficiency increase of ICE to hydrogen-based FC and obtain a development from 30% to 41.7% overall efficiency.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.4. Aviation Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [84] Mueller, J.K., Bensmann, A., and Bensmann, B. (2018). Design Considerations for the Electrical Power Supply of Future Civil Aircraft with Active High-Lift Systems. Energies, 11. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The specific energy consumption of MDV BEV and HDV BEV is estimated to be 100 kWh/100 km and 200 kWh/100 km in 2012, according to Boer et al. [78].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > DR =
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Boer et al. [78] Boer, E.D., and Aarnink, S. (2017, July 01). Zero Emissions Trucks, An Overview of State-Of-The-Art Technologies and Their potential. Available online: https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/CE_Delft_4841_Zero_emissions_trucks_Def.pdf.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“They have also investigated that electric trains are between 45-50% more energy efficient than diesel-fueled trains, which is applied in this research.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.2. Rail Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [80] Schäfer, A., Dray, L., Andersson, E., Ben-Akiva, M.E., Berg, M., Boulouchos, K., Dietrich, P., Fröidh, O., Graham, W., and Kok, R. (2017, May 14). TOSCA Project Final Report: Description of the Main S&T Results/Foregrounds. Available online: http://www.transport-research.info/sites/default/files/project/documents/20120406_000154_97382_TOSCA_FinalReport.pdf.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From 2040 to 2050, annual growth rates of 6.4% and 6.0% and 5.5% for 2040, 2045, and 2050, respectively, are considered”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.4. Aviation Transportation Activity
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“For the specific energy demand for marine freight, IMO [65] introduced the absolute fuel consumption of all vessel types for 2012, which is accounted to 274,700 kt of bunker fuel, for both domestic and international shipping.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.3. Marine Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [65] International Marine Organization (IMO) (2014). Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014, International Marine Organization. Available online: http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Third%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Study/GHG3%20Executive%20Summary%20and%20Report.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“A comparison between the mechanical and electrical drives in ships is presented by Fireman and Arbor [51], introducing relative drag coefficients and propeller efficiency for both propulsion options, leading to about 65-70% efficiency.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.3. Marine Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [51] Fireman, H., and Arbor, A. (2018, June 28). Designing All Electric Ships. Ninth International Marine Design Conference 2006, University of Michigan, Department USA. NA&ME, Designing All Electric Ships, IMDC’06, 16 May 2006, NAVSEA. Available online: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/presentation/1291/50a6ce6311ca5cf489f48081d249f0a87f5c.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWh el in 2015 to about 51,610 TWh el in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Global transportation activity will increase by around 2.7% per annum for passengers and 2.3% per annum for freight in the decades to come.
In the paper
“Strong GDP/capita demand increase stabilizes population as documented in developed countries all around the world [62], which is reflected in the assumed major trends for GDP/capita and population in this manuscript.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.1. The Role of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Population in Transportation Demand Projections
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [62] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017, December 24). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables. Available online: https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Based on ICAO, 197,549 million t-km transportation demand has been handled in the global aviation industry in 2015.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.4. Aviation Transportation Activity
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [71] International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (2015). Appendix 1. Tables Relating to the World of Air Transport in 2015, International Civil Aviation Organization. Available online: https://www.icao.int/annual-report-2015/Documents/Appendix_1_en.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“airfreight demand experiences a moderately swifter growth rate than GDP.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.4. Aviation Transportation Activity
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As soon as more electricity-based ships and airplanes are available, the relative transportation share can be expected to rise, because of efficiency gains.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Short haul flights up to 1.5 to 3 h with utmost 100 passengers have the potential to be electrified according to Wilkerson et al. [91] and Mueller et al. [80].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.3. Fuel-Share Distribution of Transport Modes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [91] Wilkerson, 2010, Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006, Atmos. Chem. Phys. source
- Not checked yetcites [80] Schäfer, A., Dray, L., Andersson, E., Ben-Akiva, M.E., Berg, M., Boulouchos, K., Dietrich, P., Fröidh, O., Graham, W., and Kok, R. (2017, May 14). TOSCA Project Final Report: Description of the Main S&T Results/Foregrounds. Available online: http://www.transport-research.info/sites/default/files/project/documents/20120406_000154_97382_TOSCA_FinalReport.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Specific values are HDV FCEV electric motor of 250 kW [104]”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [104] Kast, 2017, Clean commercial transportation: Medium and heavy duty fuel cell electric trucks, Int. J. Hydrog. Energy source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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In the paper
“MDV FCEV electric motor is set to 170 kW for the class 6 vehicle, according to Kast et al. [104]”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [104] Kast, 2017, Clean commercial transportation: Medium and heavy duty fuel cell electric trucks, Int. J. Hydrog. Energy source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The obtained specific battery cost for 2030 is confirmed by Nguyen and Ward [98].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [98] Nguyen, T., and Ward, J. (2018, March 11). Life-Cycle Costs of Mid-Size Light-Duty Vehicles, Program Record (Office of Vehicle Technologies & Fuel Cell Technologies), Available online: https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/13006_ldv_life_cycle_costs.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The platform cost share of BUS ICE is extracted from LDV platform cost share, according to Vliet et al. [96] and found to be 74% of the total capex”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [96] Vliet, 2010, Energy use, cost and CO2 emissions of electric cars, J. Power Sources source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A similar trend is found in HDV, for which HDV FCEV may be the most attractive capex option from 2025 onwards.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Table 19.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“clearly indicating that the ICE option will decline in newly sold market shares rapidly, across all transport segments.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Battery capacity is set to 49.7 kWh, according to Lajunen et al. [101]”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [101] Lajunen, 2012, Evaluation of battery requirements for hybrid and electric city buses, World Electr. Veh. J. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The starting specific cost of the battery is 198 €/kWh cap in 2017 [19,97].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] Hummel, P. (2018, March 01). Available online: https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1wkuDlEbYPjF/.
- Not checked yetcites [97] Curry, C. (2018, July 12). Lithium-Ion Battery Cost and Market. Lithium-Ion Battery Cost and Market. Squeezed Margins Seek Technology Improvements & New Business Models. Available online: https://data.bloomberglp.com/bnef/sites/14/2017/07/BNEF-Lithium-ion-battery-costs-and-market.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Current BUS FCEV capex are adopted from Lajunen [101], leading to a cost decline of the vehicle, excluding the platform, of 5% per year up to 2030, based on Vliet et al. [96].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“which is a very strong indication that practically all road vehicles will have a strong tendency to transition towards the BEV option.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
boostedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“BUS ICE maintenance cost is taken from [100], as 0.16 €/km for an annual distance of 66,667 km.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.2. Operational Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [100] Lajunen, 2016, Lifecycle cost assessment and carbon dioxide emissions of diesel natural gas, hybrid electric, fuel cell hybrid and electric transit buses, Energy source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Based on GHG emissions shares of international and domestic shipping [89], it is obtained that 11% of the total shipping is domestic”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.3. Fuel-Share Distribution of Transport Modes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [89] International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) (2017). Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Shipping, International Council on Clean Transportation, 2013–2015, International Council on Clean Transportation. Available online: https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Global-shipping-GHG-emissions-2013-2015_ICCT-Report_17102017_vF.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“MDV ICE maintenance costs for diesel MDV is estimated to be between 300 to 600 USD/month, therefore 450 USD/month are applied and converted by long-term average currency exchange rate of 1.3 USD/€.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.2. Operational Expenditures
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“due to a massive shift towards higher efficient BEV.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Since renewable electricity powered BEV shows a highly attractive GHG emission profile close to zero GHG emissions [154]”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [154] Hoekstra, 2019, The understanding potential of battery electric vehicles to reduce emissions, Joule source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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In the paper
“Robinius et al. [153] have investigated in a low market penetration scenario, the cost of infrastructure for both LDV BEV and LDV FCEV and found comparable costs.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Robinius et al. [153] Robinius, M., Linßen, J., Grube, T., Reuß, M., Stenzel, P., Syranidis, K., Kuckertz, P., and Stolten, D. (2018, July 17). Comparative Analysis of Infrastructures: Hydrogen Fueling and Electric Charging of Vehicles. Available online: https://content.h2.live/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Energie-und-Umwelt_408_Robinius-final.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“if 20 million vehicles appear in a scenario for a country such as Germany, an investment for the battery charging infrastructure may roughly cost 51 b€ and the hydrogen infrastructure may cost 40 b€, according to Robinius et al. [153].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Robinius et al. [153] Robinius, M., Linßen, J., Grube, T., Reuß, M., Stenzel, P., Syranidis, K., Kuckertz, P., and Stolten, D. (2018, July 17). Comparative Analysis of Infrastructures: Hydrogen Fueling and Electric Charging of Vehicles. Available online: https://content.h2.live/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Energie-und-Umwelt_408_Robinius-final.pdf.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The requirement of electricity-based synthetic fuels leads to an increase in primary energy demand of 36%”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results clearly indicate that the pressure on airlines and ship operators will dramatically increase to curb their GHG emissions, to comply with the targets of the Paris Agreement.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.4. Total GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.
In the paper
“The road mode can be defossilized by transitioning to alternative fuels such as electricity, synthetic fuels, mainly hydrogen, and biofuels [150].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.4. Total GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [150] Creutzig, 2015, Transport: A roadblock to climate change mitigation?, Science source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“HDV and LDV FCEV may evolve as a second option, or at least a backup solution, in case BEV does not develop as fast as projected.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The consequence may be that as soon as the road mode shifts for newly sold vehicles to BEV or sustainable hydrogen-based FCEV options, the pressure on ship operators and airlines grows fast for ambitious defossilization measures.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“A full defossilization of the transport sector can be achieved by direct and indirect electrification and the respective transition towards sustainable fuels [36,145].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [36] Horvath, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040, Energy Convers. Manag. source
- Not checked yetcites [145] Breyer, C., Khalili, S., and Bogdanov, D. (2018). Solar Photovoltaic Capacity Demand for a fully sustainable Transport Sector—How to fulfill the Paris Agreement by 2050. Prog. Photovolt. Res. Appl., 1–12. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This doubling in TTW efficiency is mainly driven by direct electrification of the road transport mode.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The levelized cost of electricity in the power sector is expected to decline, as the renewable energy share increases, which is pointed out by Bogdanov et al. [95].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Bogdanov et al. [95] Bogdanov, D., Farfan, J., Sadovskaia, K., Aghahosseini, A., Child, M., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A.S., Barbosa, L.D.S.N.S., and Breyer, C. (2019). Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps. Nat. Commun., 10. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“which is mainly caused by synthetic fuel production for the marine and aviation transport modes”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“as a consequence of massive fuel shift towards higher efficient fuels, such as direct electricity and hydrogen conversion, also supported by further efficiency increase in existing power trains.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The chances are high that more jobs can be generated for the energy supply of a fully sustainable transport sector, compared to a fossil-fuel-based transport sector as of 2015.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In this study, the total final energy demand for the transport sector is calculated for the years 2015 to 2050 in 5-year intervals, in a way that the ambitious 1.5 • C target of the Paris Agreement [2] can be achieved, while the sustainability guardrails [57] are respected.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.2. Comparison to Other Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2016, August 13). Adaptation of the Paris Agreement, COP21. Available online: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf.
- Not checked yetcites [57] Child, 2018, Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Demand centers for synthetic fuels are often in regions of moderate solar and wind resource conditions, which may be bypassed by imports of synthetic fuels from solar and wind resource rich regions, such as Patagonia [63,65], Maghreb [64], Horn of Africa or Western Australia [186].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [63] Toktarova, 2019, Long term load projection in high resolution for all countries globally, Int. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. source
- Not checked yetcites [65] International Marine Organization (IMO) (2014). Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014, International Marine Organization. Available online: http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Third%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Study/GHG3%20Executive%20Summary%20and%20Report.pdf.
- Not checked yetcites [64] International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) (2012). Global Transportation Roadmap, International Council on Clean Transportation. Available online: www.theicct.org/transportation-roadmap.
- Not checked yetcites [186] Gulagi, A., Bogdanov, D., Fasihi, M., and Breyer, C. (2017). Can Australia power the energy-hungry Asia with renewable energy?. Sustainability, 9. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Meanwhile, fossil fuels are expected to increase [164,165].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [164] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2015). World Energy Outlook 2015, International Energy Agency.
- Not checked yetcites [165] Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2018, March 19). New Energy Outlook 2015. Long-Term Projections of the Global Energy Sector. Available online: Catskillcitizens.org/learnmore/BNEF-NEO2015_Executive-summary.pdf.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In addition, the enormous fleet of BEV in road transport allows another form of large-scale demand response in the form of smart charging and vehicle-to-grid, both leading to optimized variable renewable electricity system integration [182,183].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [182] Child, M., Nordling, A., and Breyer, C. (2018). The impacts of high V2G participation in a 100% renewable Åland energy system. Energies, 11. source
- Not checked yetcites [183] Meschede, 2018, Assessment of sustainable energy system configuration for a small Canary island in 2030, Energy Convers. Manag. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Several research teams [169-172] find similar results to this research for the transition in the transport sector as summarized in Table 27.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [169] Teske, S. (2019). Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals, Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-Energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C, Springer. source
- Not checked yetcites [170] Jacobson, 2018, Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes, Renew. Energy source
- Not checked yetcites [171] Löffler, K., Hainsch, K., Burandt, T., Oei, P.Y., Kemfert, C., and Hirschhausen, C.V. (2017). Designing a model for the Global energy system-GENeSYS-MOD: An Application of the Open-Source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS). Energies, 10. source
- Not checked yetcites [172] Pursiheimo, 2019, Inter-sectoral effects of high renewable energy share in global energy system, Renew. Energy source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Löffler et al. [171] show the most ambitious scenario with the least final energy demand for the transport sector among all scenarios of around 10,410 TWh in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Jacobson et al.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Löffler et al. [171] Löffler, K., Hainsch, K., Burandt, T., Oei, P.Y., Kemfert, C., and Hirschhausen, C.V. (2017). Designing a model for the Global energy system-GENeSYS-MOD: An Application of the Open-Source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS). Energies, 10. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Form 2025 onwards, the ICE vehicles are the highest LCOM option and thus will lose quickly market shares of newly sold vehicles and with a lifetime-dependent delay this will also have a strong impact on the vehicle stock, which is expected to mainly switch from ICE to BEV by 2035 to 2040.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The well-to-wheel efficiency of biofuels is comparable to electricity-based synthetic fuels, whereas the latter are not restricted much by area or other sustainability issues.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Transportation demand will drastically expand due to population growth, urbanization, globalization, and overall economic development.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This reduction in relative losses should enable a cost-effective energy transition of the transport sector to full sustainability.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hydrogen could also become the dominant fuel for long-distance marine and aviation transportation, but existing technical challenges may be backed by electricity-based synthetic hydrocarbon fuels, such as jet fuel produced in Fischer-Tropsch units.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 99
- Probably not a substantial claim. 38
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The share of marine freight of marine energy demand is found to be 96.8%,thus 3.2% of marine energy demand is to be allocated for marine passenger.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.3. Marine Transportation Activity
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The final energy demand of about 32,540 TWh in 2050 is roughly the same as in 2015, which is a result of the strong shift towards higher efficient vehicle types and fuels, since the transportation demand triples, as presented in Figure 1.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the transport mode rail, the specific final energy demand of electric trains is lower than their diesel (liquid-fuel) counterparts in 2015, with a trend of increasing energy efficiency for both power trains.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For instance, capex for LDV BEV is the highest among all LDV options in 2015, but second lowest in 2050, close to LDV ICE.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Table 19.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The structural results show that the opex fixed of PHEV is the highest, since the maintenance cost is the highest, as two different power trains for the ICE and the BEV must be maintained, leading to higher complexity.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“MDV FCEV starts as the highest capex option for MDV in 2015, but emerges as the least capex option for MDV from 2030 onwards.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Table 19.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The road transport mode dominates the total final energy demand of about 31,613 TWh in 2015 with 76%, in which road passenger transportation contributes the major share.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Liquid fuels will play an important role in the aviation of passenger and freight with 44% and 63%, respectively in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By 2050, all values decline to its minimum value, since no reduction in efficiency is assumed.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: No reduction in efficiency is assumed by 2050.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2015, LDV operate fully on liquid fuels.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Meanwhile, electricity dominates the final energy demand with 82.2% in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
- Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“BUS FCEV has by far the highest capex in 2015, which still remains the highest capex in 2050, but at a much smaller relative difference.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Table 19.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results for LDV, identify LDV ICE as the least cost type in 2015, but from 2025 onwards, LDV BEV is the least LCOM option for LDV.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Currently, aviation operates with 100% liquid fuels, while from 2035 onwards, electricity and hydrogen penetration is expected, but still on very small shares.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The relative specific final energy demand for freight transportation in 2015 for marine (0.042 kWh th /t-km), rail (0.065 kWh th /t-km), aviation (0.142 kWh th /t-km), clearly indicates that bulk transportation is most energy efficient by ships, followed by trains, and only highly valuable cargo to be transported in airplanes, as a consequence of relative efficiency.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“BUS BEV starts in 2015 as the second-highest next to BUS FCEV, but it becomes the least capex option from 2030 onwards.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Table 19.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For BUS, the BEV option is already in 2015 slightly lower in LCOM than BUS ICE and BUS BEV remains the least LCOM option for BUS.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The electricity share of BUS is expected to be around 10% in 2020, which is the highest for road vehicles and is expected to reach 93% in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results for MDV reveal a similar dynamic as in BUS; however, this has not yet been observed in the market.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Electricity-based transportation is for all transport modes the most energy efficient option, but currently only accessible for railways in substantial volumes.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Marine uses only liquid fuels in 2015.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Meanwhile, from 2020 onwards LNG is projected to contribute more for marine passenger.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.3. Vehicles and Fuel Type Shares
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From 2025 onwards, ICE is the highest LCOM option resulting in a massive decline of newly sold ICE vehicles.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These two fundamental trends can be also observed for the three other transport modes, as summarized in Table 12, i.e., higher efficiency of all power trains, and in addition, a shift from liquid fuels towards hydrogen and direct electricity, where applicable.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, LNG is currently introduced in marine transportation as a fuel, which could contribute higher shares in 2050 with about 6% of the total transport sector final energy demand, mainly based on the power-to-gas option, as indicated by Horvath et al. [36] and Breyer et al. [145].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Horvath et al. [36] Horvath, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040, Energy Convers. Manag. source
- Not checked yetcites Breyer et al. [145] Breyer, C., Khalili, S., and Bogdanov, D. (2018). Solar Photovoltaic Capacity Demand for a fully sustainable Transport Sector—How to fulfill the Paris Agreement by 2050. Prog. Photovolt. Res. Appl., 1–12. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2015 most of the electricity is used for already electrified rail transportation, but most direct electricity is needed in 2050 for road transportation.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hydrogen is practically not used at present, but it can contribute 25% in 2050, meeting the demand form the transport modes road, marine, and aviation.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The relative losses for freight and passenger transportation in 2015 are 74%, while this can be reduced to losses of 61% in 2050, measured in the WTW perspective.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Liquid fuels dominate the total final energy demand with 98% in 2015, and can still contribute 33% of the final energy demand in 2050, which is mainly for marine and aviation transportation.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The least LCOM of BEV is from the 2020s onward and enables GHG emissions reduction benefits if powered by renewable electricity.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, form 2040 onwards the GHG emissions are dominated by more than 50% by marine and aviation, which is also a consequence of hard-to-abate long-distance transportation.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The transport activity increases from 2015 to 2050 by about 210% (freight) and 260% (passenger) (Tables 2 to 4 and Figure 1)”
- Also stated in: § 4.1. Data Analysis · plain
“The transportation demand drastically grows by about 210% to 260% from 2015 to 2050, as shown in Figure 1.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.5. Primary Energy Demand and Well-to-Wheel Efficiency
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 4.1. Data Analysis · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“GHG emissions in the transport sector are projected to peak between 2020 and 2025 and then decline to zero in 2050, based on the applied energy transition scenarios for the power sector and transport sector.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While some countries grow stronger, in particular developing and emerging countries, others, mainly developed industrialized countries, grow slower or even stagnate in transportation demand.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This high share of more than one third in 2015 declines to small shares from 2040 onwards, as a consequence of high efficiency gains due to massive electrification and in addition due to defossilization of the electricity supply, as indicated by Bogdanov et al. [95].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.4. Total GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Bogdanov et al. [95] Bogdanov, D., Farfan, J., Sadovskaia, K., Aghahosseini, A., Child, M., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A.S., Barbosa, L.D.S.N.S., and Breyer, C. (2019). Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps. Nat. Commun., 10. source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 14 depicts the GHG emissions of the entire transport sector and highlights the road transport mode, as the dominant transport mode, not only in terms of final energy demand, but also in GHG emissions.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.4. Total GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The two fuels gaining most ground are electricity and hydrogen, both due to the higher efficiencies compared to current power train options.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This leads to a substantial increase in final energy demand of marine, growing from 11.5% to 27.5% and of aviation growing from 9.8% to 24.2% for 2015 and 2050, respectively.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Long-distance shipping and flights cannot be directly electrified.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“ICE | % | 99.6 | 97.3 | 90.4 | 72.6 | 46.3 | 25.3 | 12.1 | 6.9”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The well-to-wheel efficiency of biofuels is comparable to electricity-based synthetic fuels, whereas the latter are not restricted much by area or other sustainability issues.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Total | TWh/a | 31,613 34,799 35,848 35,609 33,761 32,177 31,758 | 32,542”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“it was evaluated that the global GDP may grow approximately 4-5% per year in that period, as also adopted by Toktarova et al. [63]”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.4. Aviation Transportation Activity
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Toktarova et al. [63] Toktarova, 2019, Long term load projection in high resolution for all countries globally, Int. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“This is linked to a fuel-to-power efficiency of 40% [36] and battery full charge cycle efficiency of 92%, resulting in a total power train efficiency of about 28% and 60% for ICE and battery-electric ships, respectively for 2015.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.3. Marine Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [36] Horvath, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040, Energy Convers. Manag. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The energy consumption for 2W/3W BEV is estimated to be around 3-5 kWh el /100 km for present vehicles according to [9], which is considered to be a constant value for the entire transition period.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.1. Road Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2018). Global EV Outlook 2018. Towards Cross-Model Electrification, International Energy Agency.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Specific energy demand for MDV ICE and HDV ICE is 4.8 and 1.6 MJ/t-km for 2015 and 2.7 and 0.8 MJ/t-km for 2050, adopted from [34].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > DR =
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34] Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution (2015). A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, 100% Renewable Energy for All, Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution. Available online: https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/greenpeace_energy-revolution_erneuerbare_2050_20150921.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The utility factor is calculated to be 0.7 for the battery-electric range of current vehicles with about 10 kWh of battery capacity [19] and is expected to grow to 0.78 by 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.1. Road Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] Hummel, P. (2018, March 01). Available online: https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1wkuDlEbYPjF/.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Mendes et al. [75] show that the specific energy consumption for 2W/3W ICE is 65% higher than for the BEV power train, and is also assumed constant throughout the transition period”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.1. Road Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Mendes et al. [75] Mendes, 2015, Introducing specific power to bicycle and motorcycles: Application to electric mobility, Transp. Res. Part C Emerg. Technol. source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The utility factors for MDV PHEV and HDV PHEV are considered from [77] as a constant value of 0.4 and 0.3, respectively, throughout the transition period.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > DR =
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [77] Transportation Research Center—University of Vermont (UVM TRC) (2018, April 15). Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Research Project: Phase II Report. Available online: http://www.greenmtn.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/phev-final-report-april2010.pdf.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The driving forces for the demand development in transportation are, according to Ribeiro et al. [58] and Royal Automobile Club Foundation [59] industrialization, globalization, and urbanization.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.1.1. The Role of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Population in Transportation Demand Projections
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Ribeiro et al. [58] Kahn Ribeiro, S., Kobayashi, S., Beuthe, M., Gasca, J., Greene, D., Lee, D.S., Muromachi, Y., Newton, P.J., Plotkin, S., and Sperling, D. (2007). Transport and its infrastructure. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation; Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
- Not checked yetcites Royal Automobile Club Foundation [59] Royal Automobile Club Foundation (2017, March 12). Travel Demand and its Causes. Motoring towards 2050-Roads and Reality. Available online: https://www.racfoundation.org/assets/rac_foundation/content/downloadables/roads%20and%20reality%20-%20bayliss%20-%20travel%20demand%20and%20its%20causes%20-%20150708%20-%20background%20paper%203.pdf.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding, compared to other transport modes.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Horvath et al. [36] provide efficiency values for marine diesel engines for 2030 and 2040 to be 46% and 47%, respectively, and for 2050, 48% is assumed.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.3. Marine Specific Energy Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [36] Horvath, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040, Energy Convers. Manag. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Over 92% of the energy for transport is provided by oil, 3% by natural gas (NG), 1% by electricity, and other fuels contribute 4%.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017). World Energy Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The fuel tank capex is considered to be fixed at 1.9 €/kWh H2 , whereas the power train capex declines from 284 €/kW in 2015 to 48 €/kW in 2050, according to estimates of UBS [19].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] Hummel, P. (2018, March 01). Available online: https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1wkuDlEbYPjF/.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For BUS, the BEV option is by far the least LCOM option, so it may be expected that the other vehicle types may not play a significant role in the years to come.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“BUS BEV battery capacity is set to 333 kWh, according to Lajunen and Lipman [100]”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [100] Lajunen, 2016, Lifecycle cost assessment and carbon dioxide emissions of diesel natural gas, hybrid electric, fuel cell hybrid and electric transit buses, Energy source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results for HDV show similarities to LDV; however, the HDV BEV and HDV FCEV LCOM are very close, so that a co-existence of both vehicle types may occur.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“PHEV is the second-highest LCOM option; however, it may be still competitive in many parts of the world, since this option can overcome infrastructure restrictions for electricity supply in developing and emerging countries, as liquid fuels can still be used, as a kind of backup for weak electricity supply grids.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, for LDV and in particular HDV, the FCEV option is rather close, so that a technological co-existence of both vehicle types seems to be rather likely.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Such a scenario will reflect the ambitious 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement [2] and sustainability guardrails [57].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.3. Global Final Energy Demand for the Transport Sector
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2016, August 13). Adaptation of the Paris Agreement, COP21. Available online: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf.
- Not checked yetcites [57] Child, 2018, Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Tesla [106] claims that by 2020 there will be 900 kWh battery capacity for their HDV BEV for 143 €/kWh cap”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [106] Ars Technica (2017, October 24). Tesla Announce Truck Prices Lower than Experts Predicted. Available online: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/11/teslas-expected-truck-prices-are-much-lower-than-experts-predicted/.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“This fundamental insight seems to be recognized in China, since there are by far the highest number of BUS BEV operating in China [146], with Shenzhen in the lead, at the end of 2017, all city buses have switched to the BUS BEV option [147,148].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [146] Du, 2019, Evaluating the technological evolution of battery electric buses: China as a case, Energy source
- Not checked yetcites [147] Transport and Environment (2019, May 01). Electric Buses Arrive on Time. Market Place, Economy, Technology, Environmental and Policy Perspectives for Fully Electric Buses in the UE. Available online: https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/Electric%20buses%20arrive%20on%20time.pdf.
- Not checked yetcites [148] Zart, N. (2017). 100% Electric Bus Fleet for Shenzhen (Population 11.9 Million) by End of 2017. Clean Technica. Available online: https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/12/100-electric-bus-fleet-shenzhen-pop-11-9-million-end-2017/.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The battery capacity for BEV and PHEV is calculated to be 70 and 10 kWh, respectively by multiplying all-electric range km of the vehicle to its specific efficiency in kWh/km [19].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.4.1. Capital Expenditures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] Hummel, P. (2018, March 01). Available online: https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1wkuDlEbYPjF/.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since energy density for long-distance transportation is a severe challenge for batteries, hydrogen appears as a valuable option for the energy transition in the transport sector.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Hydrogen is emission-free.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The longer the transport distances, the more relative efficiency matters.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.2.1. Specific Energy Demand
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The most GHG emissions of combustible vehicles happen at TTW (downstream), while emissions of alternative fuels mostly happen in WTT (upstream) [149].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 3.4. Total GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [149] Creutzig, 2011, Climate policies for road transport revisited (I): Evaluation of the current framework, Energy Policy source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The fuel and power train switch from liquid fuels to hydrogen and in particular electricity allows that a growth of only 3% in final energy fuels enables a 105% growth in mechanical energy, documenting the low efficiency of combustion processes.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“A first modeling in full hourly resolution of a zero GHG emission transport sector is presented by Ram et al. [157], which further demonstrates the technical feasibility and economic viability of a zero GHG emission transport sector.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Ram et al. [157] Ram, M., Bogdanov, D., Aghahosseini, A., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A.S., Child, M., Caldera, U., Sadovskaia, K., Farfan, J., and Barbosa, L.S.N.S. (2019). Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy—Power, Heat, Transport and Desalination Sectors. Lappeenranta University of Technology and Energy Watch Group. Available online: http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition, electricity-based liquid fuels are an option for power-to-gas-based LNG in marine transportation and in particular for Fischer-Tropsch-based jet fuel in the aviation sector, so that the biofuel demand can be reduced to a minimum level”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The much lower relative loss in 2050 is mainly driven by direct electrification of the road transport mode, while the penalty of power-to-fuels for the marine and aviation transport mode does not limit dramatically the overall increase in transport sector efficiency.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This means that 77% of all sustainably available biomass would be needed to only cover the remaining LNG and liquid hydrocarbon demand in the transport sector in 2050, and thus massively limiting the available biomass resource potential for the other energy sectors.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“PHEV may be a compromise in developing and emerging countries, even though they are the second-highest LCOM.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Creutzig et al. [156] clearly point out that the total available sustainable biomass potential for the energy sector is about 100 EJ (27,780 TWh) without compromising sustainability constraints, such as sustainability guardrails [57], and thus could provide biofuels of about 16,670 TWh according to the efficiency of about 60% of biomass-to-biofuel conversion.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Creutzig et al. [156] Creutzig, 2015, Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: An assessment, Glob. Change Biol. Bioenergy source
- Not checked yetcites [57] Child, 2018, Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. source
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“which is driven by high efficiency power trains, competitive fuel costs, declining GHG emissions, projected rapid cost decline of batteries and finally a lower level of complexity compared to ICE vehicles, leading to lower maintenance costs.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“which is a clear benefit of overall direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector, which is further supported by a fuel switch from less efficient liquid hydrocarbon combustion to higher efficient hydrogen use in fuel cells and highly efficient use of electricity in electric drives.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“not only BEV LCOM are lower than those of ICE vehicles, but also GHG emissions, leading to GHG emissions reduction benefits, as found earlier in different regions and for different applications due to solar PV in the power sector [155].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [155] Breyer, 2015, Profitable climate mitigation: The case of greenhouse gas emission reduction benefits enabled by solar photovoltaic systems, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However, renewable electricity-based electrolysis can provide clean and low-cost hydrogen [126], also improving the overall economics of hydrogen as a fuel for the transport sector.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [126] Fasihi, M., and Breyer, C. (2020). Baseload electricity and hydrogen supply based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. J. Clean. Prod., 243. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Hydrogen may only complement direct electricity in the road mode; however, in marine and aviation, hydrogen would have the potential to emerge as the dominant fuel for long-distance transportation [36], in case existing technical challenges are overcome.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [36] Horvath, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040, Energy Convers. Manag. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All road vehicle types are expected to further increase efficiency, which is further improved by a shift from ICE to BEV and some FCEV, wherein the two latter lead to higher efficiency for the road mode, in particular BEV.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hydrocarbon fuels can still be used in the transport sector, but they have to be defossilized, which can be achieved by biofuels that are volume constrained and can cause sustainability issues, such as for palm oil, or by electricity-based liquid fuels.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hydrogen produced via SMR still causes GHG emissions and may not have much market chances in a climate-constrained energy system.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Renewable electricity costs further decline [95], and thereof solar PV is projected to continue the outstanding cost decline to historically unrivalled levels [162] enabling multiple power-to-X processes [163].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [95] Bogdanov, D., Farfan, J., Sadovskaia, K., Aghahosseini, A., Child, M., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A.S., Barbosa, L.D.S.N.S., and Breyer, C. (2019). Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps. Nat. Commun., 10. source
- Not checked yetcites [162] Vartiainen, E., Masson, G., Breyer, C., Moser, D., and Medina, E.R. (2019). Impact of Weighted Average Cost of Capital, Capital Expenditure and Other Parameters on Future Utility-Scale PV Levelised Cost of Electricity. Prog. Photovolt. Res. Appl., in press. source
- Not checked yetcites [163] Haegel, 2019, Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy, Science source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Grandell et al. [189] conclude that silver would be the most critical metal for a global energy transition, and thus also highly critical for the transport sector, since solar PV is the dominant source of energy for the transport sector as discussed by Breyer et al. [81].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Grandell et al. [189] Grandell, 2016, Role of critical metals in the future markets of clean energy technologies, Renew. Energy source
- Not checked yetcites Breyer et al. [81]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Brown et al. [185] find fast defossilizing road and rail transport modes due to high efficiency and attractive economics, further supported by high flexibility benefits due to smart charging and vehicle-to-grid services.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Brown et al. [185] Brown, T., Schäfer, M., and Greiner, M. (2019). Sectoral interactions as carbon dioxide emissions approach zero in a Highly-Renewable European energy system. Energies, 12. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Research on transition dynamics indicate that the speed of transition assumed in this research is possible and not out of reach.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [169] Teske, S. (2019). Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals, Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-Energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C, Springer. source
- Not checked yetcites [170] Jacobson, 2018, Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes, Renew. Energy source
- Not checked yetcites [171] Löffler, K., Hainsch, K., Burandt, T., Oei, P.Y., Kemfert, C., and Hirschhausen, C.V. (2017). Designing a model for the Global energy system-GENeSYS-MOD: An Application of the Open-Source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS). Energies, 10. source
- Not checked yetcites [172] Pursiheimo, 2019, Inter-sectoral effects of high renewable energy share in global energy system, Renew. Energy source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The drastic primary energy switch from 95% fossil sources in 2015 to 98% renewable electricity in 2050 is a consequence of several major trends, such as drastically declining renewable electricity and battery cost, enabling not only a massive road transport electrification, but also affordable synthetic fuels, and finally the requirement of a zero GHG emission energy system according to the Paris”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The Greenpeace E[R] advanced scenario [34] introduces extremely high RE penetration to its transport sector scenario achieving a 100% RE share in 2050, leading to merely 15,703 TWh final energy demand in 2050”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.2. Comparison to Other Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34] Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution (2015). A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, 100% Renewable Energy for All, Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution. Available online: https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/greenpeace_energy-revolution_erneuerbare_2050_20150921.pdf.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Indications of this study and also results by Jacobson et al. [170], Teske [169] and Pursiheimo et al. [172] clearly indicate a massive increase in electricity demand for a sustainable transport sector, whereas this study and Jacobson et al. [170] project a transport sector practically fully based on electricity in 2050, via direct and indirect electrification, and thus avoiding sustainability”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [170] Jacobson, 2018, Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes, Renew. Energy source
- Not checked yetcites [169] Teske, S. (2019). Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals, Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-Energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C, Springer. source
- Not checked yetcites [172] Pursiheimo, 2019, Inter-sectoral effects of high renewable energy share in global energy system, Renew. Energy source
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This is confirmed by Mathiesen et al. [184] who point out that variable renewable energy can be linked to new sources of flexibility, such as synthetic fuel storage and BEV in a Smart Energy System design, which may even allow a bioenergy-free 100% renewable energy system.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Mathiesen et al. [184] Mathiesen, 2015, Smart energy systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions, Appl. Energy source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Progress in tackling this historic challenge is much too slow and GHG emissions reduction is not on track at all [196].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [196] Pahle, 2018, Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency, Nat. Clim. Change source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Scientists all around the world have confirmed that the claims and concerns of the global youth are more than justified [92,93], and a massive and radical response is required to avoid a collapse of civilization.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Highly renewable energy scenarios have been coupled to analyze the impact on jobs, as done since several editions for the Greenpeace scenarios [34], but also by Jacobson et al. [90] and recently by Ram et al. [194] who integrated for the first time jobs related to electricity storage.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34] Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution (2015). A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, 100% Renewable Energy for All, Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution. Available online: https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/greenpeace_energy-revolution_erneuerbare_2050_20150921.pdf.
- Not checked yetcites [90] Jacobson, 2017, 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World, Joule source
- Not checked yetcites Ram et al. [194]
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Deng et al. [174] and WWF [173] indicate 26% electricity share in 2050, and the rest of the fuel share stays with biofuels, which is the highest biofuel share of all scenarios.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Deng et al.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [174] Deng, 2012, Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system, Energy Strategy Rev. source
- Not checked yetcites [173] World Wildlife Fund (WWF) (2018, May 19). Available online: https://www.google.com/search?client=firefoxbe&q=World+Wildlife+Fund+%28WWF%29.+The+energy+report+100%25+renewable+energy+by+2050.+2011%2C+Washington+DC%2C+USA.+Available+online%3A.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [176] projects in a very similar way in the New Policy Scenario as ExxonMobil a high fossil-fuel demand (90%) and low electricity penetration in the total final energy demand, which leads to a strong demand increase until 2040, which is about a quarter higher than in this study.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Deng et al.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [176] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2018). World Energy Outlook 2018, International Energy Agency.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The impact on the transport sector may be that a drastic reaction may require zero GHG emissions for 2040 or even earlier, implying substantially more ambitious measures than discussed in this paper.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“All known global 100% renewable energy studies presenting details for the transport sector are included [166].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.2. Comparison to Other Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [166] Hansen, 2019, Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems, Energy source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The conversion efficiency of electricity to liquid hydrocarbons of about 53% can well compete with biomass to liquid hydrocarbons of 48-80%, while the latter is mainly based on area limited energy crops, whereas the area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Electricity and hydrogen represent a final energy demand of 8122 TWh (51.7%) and 3900 TWh (24.8%), respectively, complemented by biofuels (13.9%) and synthetic fuels (9.5%).”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.2. Comparison to Other Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The presented transition in the transport sector in this paper is technically and economically possible, however, this has to be driven by societal will for change, which leads to a likelihood whether the proposed scenario can be achieved.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The high dynamic flexibility of electrolyzers [181] in conjunction with decreasing capex [95,126] allows a most valuable demand response leading to a very effective energy system integration of variable renewables, in particular solar PV and wind energy, thus reducing curtailment, higher costing storage demand and total system cost.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [181] Breyer, 2015, Power-to-Gas as an Emerging profitable business through creating an integrated value chain, Energy Procedia source
- Not checked yetcites [95] Bogdanov, D., Farfan, J., Sadovskaia, K., Aghahosseini, A., Child, M., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A.S., Barbosa, L.D.S.N.S., and Breyer, C. (2019). Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps. Nat. Commun., 10. source
- Not checked yetcites [126] Fasihi, M., and Breyer, C. (2020). Baseload electricity and hydrogen supply based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. J. Clean. Prod., 243. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Greim et al. [188] conclude that a continuously growing road transport mode cannot be matched with the economically extractable lithium resource availability leading to an entirely depletion of expected resource in the 2060s, but even earlier if recycling rates and collection rates of end-of-life batteries would not be very close to 100%.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Greim et al. [188] Greim, P., Solomon, A.A., and Breyer, C. (2019). Availability of lithium for the global transition towards renewable based energy supply with focus on power and mobility, submitted.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Detailed research by solar PV experts cannot confirm this concern as the specific silver demand can be further reduced [190] so that the present silver cost level can be prolonged, and furthermore silver can be substituted by copper so that an effective substitution is in place and applied as soon as required [190][191][192].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [190] Altermatt, 2018, Riding the workhorse of the industry: PERC, Photovolt. Int.
- Not checked yetcites [190][191][192]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Junne et al. [187] found in a very first comparative study on highly renewable energy systems indications for very challenging resource limitations for the transport sector, in particular due to the materials neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt, needed for electric motors and lithium-ion batteries.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Junne et al. [187] Junne, T., Wulff, N., Breyer, C., and Naegler, T. (2019). Critical materials in global low carbon energy scenarios: The case of dysprosium, neodymium, lithium and cobalt, submitted. source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Ramp-up of renewables has continuously generated new jobs in recent years as monitored by IRENA [193].”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites IRENA [193]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The fast progressing anthropogenic climate change [195] requires a fast and drastic response in radical GHG emission reductions to zero, the sooner the better, so that the temperature rise can be limited to 1.5 • C compared to pre-industrial levels.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [195] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2018, April 06). Available online: https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, synthetic fuels required for the marine and aviation mode need very low-cost electricity, high GHG emissions cost, and further scaled synthesis processes.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All required major technologies are known, or already introduced to markets.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Carbon Tracker International [200] has indicated a stranded asset potential of the fossil oil and gas industry of more than 20 trillion USD, due to non-adaptive strategies of most players in this industry, which has a strong impact on the transport sector, as this is the largest demand sector for fossil oil at present.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Carbon Tracker International [200]
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Smith et al. [198] do not assume stranded assets in the energy system which can accelerate the transition substantially as pointed out by Kalkuhl et al. [199], since vested interests and lobbying power of owners of fixed factors such as fossil resources cannot be ignored.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Smith et al. [198] Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Allen, M., Fuglestvedt, J., Miller, R.J., Rogelj, J., and Zickfeld, K. (2019). Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5°C warming. Nat. Commun., 10. source
- Not checked yetcites Kalkuhl et al. [199] Kalkuhl, M., Steckel, J., and Edenhofer, O. (2019). All or nothing: Climate policy when assets can become stranded. J. Environ. Econ. Manag., in press. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Then more BEV are based on electricity which is assumed to be also switched to renewable electricity, thus drastically reducing the GHG emissions in the road mode.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Electricity used by BEVs is assumed to be switched to renewable electricity.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Renewable electricity will be the low-cost basis for direct and indirect electrification of the global transport sector.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This will lead in 2035 and 2040 to a majority GHG emission contribution of marine and aviation transportation which may induce a fast-accelerating pressure on ship operators and airlines to drastically reduce their GHG emissions by fuel switch to defossilized fuels.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The most important fuels for the transport sector during the energy transition will be electricity, then based on renewable electricity, and hydrogen, which can be also produced with low-cost renewable electricity.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hydrogen could also become the dominant fuel for long-distance marine and aviation transportation, but existing technical challenges may be backed by electricity-based synthetic hydrocarbon fuels, such as jet fuel produced in Fischer-Tropsch units.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Geels et al. [201] emphasize that techno-economic analyses are crucial for analyzing and managing low-carbon transitions, but social, political and cultural processes have to be integrated for a multi-level perspective to capture dynamics in broad, since dynamic policy mixes are required, politics are as important as”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Geels et al. [201] Geels, 2017, The Socio-Technical Dynamics of Low-Carbon Transitions, Joule source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Long-distance transport by marine and aviation suffers from the inability to switch to direct electric propulsion due to the too low energy density of batteries for long distances.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The global transport sector can achieve zero GHG emissions by 2050 fully supporting the ambitious 1.5 • C target of the Paris Agreement from a technological perspective supported by fast improving economics.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This surprising result is driven by ongoing efficiency increase of all vehicle types, a consequent shift to fuels enabling more efficient transportation and in particular a massive direct electrification of the road mode in all road transport segments.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hydrogen-based FCEV are close to BEV and therefore may receive some market shares and can be regarded as major backup option in case of slower than expected BEV development.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Smith et al. [198] apply socio-economic constraints for an overall energy transition and conclude that a phase-out of carbon-intensive infrastructure at the end of its design lifetime enables a 1.5 • C scenario at a 64% chance, which is close to the 67% probability used typically, and in agreement to this research.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.3. Outlook and Further Investigations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Smith et al. [198] Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Allen, M., Fuglestvedt, J., Miller, R.J., Rogelj, J., and Zickfeld, K. (2019). Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5°C warming. Nat. Commun., 10. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Transport demand is rapidly increasing.
“Transport demand is rapidly increasing and, with such high dependence on fossil fuels, there would be serious consequences for human health and energy security-related issues [4] as long as this trend continues.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Global transportation activity will increase by around 2.7% per annum for passengers and 2.3% per annum for freight in the decades to come.
“It is projected that transport activities benefit from prosperous economic development in the decades to come, which may lead to an average increase in global transportation activity of around 2.7% and 2.3% per annum for passengers and freight, respectively.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Other dry cargoes in marine transport will grow exponentially from 2012 to 2050.
“From 2012 to 2050, linear approximation is applied for bulk goods, oil transported, and coal freight, and exponential growth for other dry cargoes is assumed.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The specific energy demand for trains declines at a linear rate between 2010 and 2050, so intermediate periods can be linearly interpolated.
“It is assumed that the specific energy demand for trains declines in a linear rate, so that all periods between 2010 and 2050 can be linearly interpolated.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Marine diesel engine efficiency in 2050 is 48%.
“and for 2050, 48% is assumed.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Fuel-to-H2 efficiency increases from 53% to 65% between 2030 and 2050.
“though fuel-to-H 2 efficiency is assumed to increase from 53% to 65%, from 2030 to 2050, based on [36].”
The authors state this as an assumption.
As a first-order approximation, revenue passenger km per kg of jet fuel is treated as equal to passenger km per kg.
“As a first order approximation rp-km/kg is considered to be p-km/kg.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
80% of all domestic shipping is within a range suitable for electrification.
“it is assumed that 80% of all domestic shipping is within a range for electrification.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
From around 2035 onwards, hydrogen and electricity start to gain market shares for powering airplanes.
“From around 2035 onwards, it is assumed that hydrogen and electricity start to gain market shares for powering airplanes”
The authors state this as an assumption.
For 2050, 18.7% of flights measured in passenger kilometers will be electric and 37.4% will be fuel-cell hydrogen.
“this research assumes for 2050 that 18.7% of the flights measured in passenger kilometers representing short haul flights of less than 1.5 h and half of the flights between 1.5 and 3 h will be electric and twice that is assumed to be contributed by fuel-cellbased flights fueled by hydrogen (37.4%)”
The authors state this as an assumption.
80% of short-haul flights will be served by all-electric flights in the longer term, achieved between 2050 and 2060.
“whereas 80% of these flights should be served by all-electric flights in the longer term, which is projected to be achieved between 2050 and 2060.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Battery specific cost declines by 7.9% per year until 2030 and by 2% per year until 2050.
“A cost reduction of 7.9% per year is assumed until 2030, based on BNEF and UBS assumptions, and 2% per year until 2050.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Power train cost declines by 7.9% per year until 2030 and by 2% per year thereafter.
“The power train cost reduction is assumed at 7.9% per year until 2030 and 2% per year then onwards [19,97].”
The authors state this as an assumption.
MDV ICE capex stays stable over the transition period.
“MDV ICE capex is assumed to stay stable, according to Yeon and Thomas [102]”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Vehicle lifetimes for all vehicle types stay constant until 2050.
“Vehicle lifetimes for all vehicle types are assumed to stay constant until 2050.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Battery lifetime is identical for BEV and PHEV.
“Battery lifetime is assumed to be identical for BEV and PHEV, as discussed by Guenther et al. [113].”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Lithium-ion technology is the standard battery for 2W/3W vehicles.
“lithium-ion technology is assumed as the standard”
The authors state this as an assumption.
LDV annual mileage is roughly 10,000 km.
“which is assumed to be roughly 10,000 km for LDV.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
No reduction in efficiency is assumed by 2050.
“since no reduction in efficiency is assumed.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.
“The load factor for each transport segment is assumed to be identical within each vehicle category.”
“For example, in the case of LDV BEV, the same average number of passengers in the vehicle as in LDV ICE is assumed.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The load factor for MDV and HDV is identical, independent of vehicle type.
“The load factor for MDV and HDV is measured in tons per vehicle, and it is assumed to be identical, independent of the vehicle type.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.
“The TTW values for hydrogen and electricity as a final energy fuel are zero.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Hydrogen is emission-free.
“The final energy fuel hydrogen is emission-free”
The paper relies on this without support.
Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.
“Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Long-distance shipping and flights cannot be directly electrified.
“As long-distance shipping and flights cannot be directly electrified, the two transport modes marine and aviation cannot benefit from the efficiency gains of electric ships and planes”
The paper relies on this without support.
LNG as a marine fuel suffers from the possibility of methane leakage, a major threat due to the very high global warming potential of methane emissions.
“LNG as a marine fuel suffers from the possibility of methane leakage, which is a major threat for this fuel option due to the very high global warming potential of methane emissions.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Zero GHG emissions for the aviation sector may not be possible with fuel measures alone because contrail-cirrus formation cannot be reduced to zero.
“recent research indicates that zero GHG emissions for the aviation sector may not be possible with fuel measures alone, since contrail-cirrus formation cannot be reduced to zero”
The paper relies on this without support.
The area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.
“whereas the area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Electricity used by BEVs is assumed to be switched to renewable electricity.
“Then more BEV are based on electricity which is assumed to be also switched to renewable electricity, thus drastically reducing the GHG emissions in the road mode.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source doesn’t support the claim as written.
In the citing paper
“Investment in public transit is crucial, especially rail, which continues to be the least energy-demanding mode of transportation [96].”
From A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America (2023) · cites this paper as [96]
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“In most ambitious transport energy models, full electrification of land transport and power-to-fuels for aviation and shipping can completely decarbonize the transport sector while also decreasing primary energy required per unit of end-use energy, in particular in electric land transport 36 .”
From Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being (2022) · cites this paper as [36]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 2.2.1. Road Specific Energy Demand
“the specific energy consumption for 2W/3W ICE is 65% higher than for the BEV power train”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
“2W/3W | ICE BEV | kWh th /p-km kWh el /p-km | 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.1. Data Analysis
“From 2025 onwards, ICE is the highest LCOM option resulting in a massive decline of newly sold ICE vehicles.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Vehicle
“BUS ICE €/km 1.286 1.291 1.314 1.319 1.326 1.335 1.364 1.426 BEV €/km 1.196 1.070 0.986 0.918 0.881 0.847 0.815 0.793 PHEV €/km 1.310 1.258 1.225 1.200 1.183 1.168 1.166 1.184 FCEV €/km 2.348 2.012 1.753 1.542 1.447 1.359 1.280 1.216”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.2. Comparison to Other Results
“the Greenpeace E[R] advanced scenario [34] introduces extremely high RE penetration to its transport sector scenario achieving a 100% RE share in 2050, leading to merely 15,703 TWh final energy demand in 2050”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
“| Greenpeace [E]R adv. [34] | 2015 | - | 25,850 | 24,897 | 23,207 | - | 18,020 | - | 14,836 | 0 | 14 | 35 | 51 |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Deng et al.
“The fossil-fuel share is still 78% in 2050, leading in total to a final energy demand of 37,169 TWh.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
“| World Energy Council [175] | 2019 | 34,203 | - | 33,820 | 33,413 | - | 34,448 | - | 33,134 | 62 | 12 | 9 | 17 |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Deng et al.
“This share dwindles moderately to 80% in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
“| Shell, Sky [178] | 2018 | 30,812 | 33,019 | 34,989 | 34,611 | 36,290 | 37,686 | 38,837 | 40,630 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 18 |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
“The global transport sector can achieve zero GHG emissions by 2050”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
“| Liquid fuel | WTW | gCO 2eq /kWh th | 368 | 366 | 366 | 358 | 305 | 211 | 96 | 8 |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 4.2. Comparison to Other Results
“In the 1.5 • C scenario, the annual electricity demand shall be 38% in 2050.”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
“| Teske, 1.5 • C [169] | 2019 | 30,752 | - | 29,411 | 25,606 | - | 19,604 | - | 17,001 | 0 | 16 | 36 | 48 |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > Jacobson et al.
“[170] projects 16,638 TWh for 2050”
§ Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World > 5. Conclusions
“| Jacobson et al. [170] | 2018 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13,113 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 67 |”
Citations
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
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Breyer, C., Khalili, S., Bogdanov, D., Ram, M., Oyewo, A. S., Aghahosseini, A., Gulagi, A., Solomon, A. A., Keiner, D., Lopez, G., et al. (2022) · IEEE Access · doi:10.1109/access.2022.3193402 · Cited by 644
Self-citationDemand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being
Creutzig, F., Niamir, L., Bai, X., Callaghan, M., Cullen, J., Díaz-José, J., Figueroa, M., Grubler, A., Lamb, W. F., Leip, A., et al. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01219-y · Cited by 579
Greim, P., Solomon, A. A., & Breyer, C. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18402-y · Cited by 554
Self-citationBogdanov, D., Gulagi, A., Fasihi, M., & Breyer, C. (2021) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116273 · Cited by 421
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Khalili, S., Rantanen, E., Bogdanov, D., & Breyer, C.
- Affiliations
- Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology (FI)
- Corresponding author
- Khalili, Siavash
- Breyer, Christian
- Venue
- Energies
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Published
- 2019-10-12
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 20
- Pages
- 3870
- ISSN
- 1996-1073 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2979394821
- Semantic Scholar
- d8beb9d1e1135268eaef88c9b684589c43badaf9
- Cited by
- 290
- References
- 113
- Citations by year
- 2026: 53 · 2025: 51 · 2024: 55 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 25 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 4.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Energies (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation (40101/14)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Aerospace Engineering › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
- Keywords
- travel demand, transport energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, electrification of transport, battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, synthetic fuels, hydrogen-based fuels, electric ships, electric aviation, railways, power-to-fuels, renewable electricity, fossil fuel demand, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-06, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-06 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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