Calibration between the Estimated Probability of the Risk Assessment Chart of Japan Atherosclerosis Society and Actual Mortality Using External Population: Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN)
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AIM: In Japan Atherosclerosis Society guidelines for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2012 (JAS2012), NIPPON DATA80 risk assessment chart (ND80RAC) was adopted to estimate the 10-year probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality. However, there was no comparison between the estimated mortality calculated by ND80RAC and actual mortality in external populations. Accordingly, we used the large pooled database of cohorts in Japan, EPOCH-JAPAN, as an external population. METHODS: The participants of EPOCH-JAPAN without a history of cardiovascular disease (15,091 men and 18,589 women aged 40-74 years) were analyzed based on sex. The probability of a 10-year risk of CAD/stroke mortality was estimated by ND80RAC. The participants were divided into both decile of their estimated mortality and three categories according to JAS2012. The calibration between the mean estimated mortality and the actual mortality was performed by the Hosmer and Lemeshow (H-L) test. RESULTS: In both sexes, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality, particularly in higher deciles of estimated mortality, and the estimated stroke mortality was almost concordant with the actual mortality in low/moderate deciles of estimated mortality. As for the categories according to JAS2012, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality in both sexes; actual mortality in Category III was lower than that in Category II in women. However, it increased in the ascending order of category when we excluded the presence of diabetes from Category III. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated CAD mortality by ND80RAC tended to be higher than the actual mortality in the population in which the baseline survey was more recently performed.
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There are several assessment tools that predict the absolute risk of ASCVD in the Japanese population.
“There are several assessment tool that predict the absolute risk of ASCVD in the Japanese population.”
From Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines for prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [340]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Nakai, M., Miyamoto, Y., Higashiyama, A., Murakami, Y., Nishimura, K., Yatsuya, H., Saitoh, S., Sakata, K., Iso, H., Miura, K., Ueshima, H., Okamura, T., & The EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group
- Affiliations
- National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (JP)
- Toho University (JP)
- Fujita Health University (JP)
- Sapporo Medical University (JP)
- Iwate Medical University (JP)
- The University of Osaka (JP)
- Shiga University of Medical Science (JP)
- Center for Epidemiologic Research in Asia
- Keio University (JP)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis
- Publisher
- Japan Atherosclerosis Society
- Published
- 2016
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 176-195
- ISSN
- 1340-3478 (ISSN-L)
- 1880-3873
- OpenAlex
- W1917667530
- Cited by
- 10
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2022: 4 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 2 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 1.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc-sa
- Locations
- Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Institutional Repositories DataBase (IRDB) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (22-4-5)
- Keio University
- Dokkyo Medical University
- Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (H26‐Junkankitou (Seisaku)‐Ippan‐001)
- Jichi Medical University
- Kanazawa Medical University
- Hokkaido University
- Fujita Health University
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- risk prediction model calibration, coronary artery disease mortality, stroke mortality, cardiovascular disease prevention, diabetes mellitus, sex differences, external validation
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Calibration, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Japan, Male, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Risk Factors, Cohort Studies, Biomarkers, Survival Rate, Risk Assessment
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