‘Wiggle Matching’ Radiocarbon Dates
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This paper covers three different methods of matching radiocarbon dates to the ‘wiggles’ of the calibration curve in those situations where the age difference between the 14 C dates is known. These methods are most often applied to tree-ring sequences. The simplest approach is to use a classical Chi-squared fit of the 14 C data to the 14 C curve. This gives the calendar date where the data fit best and allows tests of how good the fit is. The only drawback of this method is that it is difficult to ascertain the uncertainty in the date found in this way. An extension of this technique uses a Monte-Carlo simulation to sample possible 14 C concentrations consistent with the measurement made and for each of these possibilities performs a Chi-squared fit. This method yields a distribution of values in the calendrical time-scale, from which the overall dating uncertainty can be derived. A third, rather different approach, based on Bayesian statistics, calculates the relative likelihood of each possible calendar year fit. This can then be used to calculate a range of most likely dates in a similar way to the probability method of 14 C calibration. The theories underlying all three methods are discussed in this paper and a comparison made for the fitting of specific model sequences. All three methods are found to give consistent results and the application of any one of them depends on the nature of the scientific question being addressed.
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The wiggle-match calendar placement of the Hd GOR time series uses the placement with satisfactory OxCal agreement indices after removing the 13 or 14 largest outliers; this places the last year of the chronology RY1,764, with bark (felling date) ~748BCE.
“The wiggle-match calendar placement of the Hd GOR time series22 uses the placement with satisfactory OxCal agreement indices after removing the 13 or 14 largest outliers (SSimple outlier model24 applied to individual dates, dates in weighted averages, and the weighted averages42). The minimum almost satisfactory case removes 13 individual outliers and achieves Amodel ~ 58 and Aoverall ~ 61, while”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [22]
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe OxCal D_Sequence function is employed to undertake a wiggle-match and quantify the dating probability for the waney edge.
“The OxCal D_Sequence function [139] is employed to undertake a 'wiggle-match' and to quantify the dating probability for the waney edge (and so the TPQ for the Thera eruption provided by this sample).”
From Second Intermediate Period date for the Thera (Santorini) eruption and historical implications (2022) · cites this paper as [139]
The Introduction and A Bayesian Approach section describe wiggle-matching tree-ring sequences and identify OxCal as using a method that calculates dating probabilities. Our copy does not identify the D_Sequence function or discuss calculating a probability for a waney edge, so it supports the general method but not those specifics. The supplied passages have no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredClassical least-squares curve fitting approaches achieve very similar best fit loci.
“Classical least-squares curve fitting approaches achieve very similar best fit loci [22, 43].”
From Integrated Tree-Ring-Radiocarbon High-Resolution Timeframe to Resolve Earlier Second Millennium BCE Mesopotamian Chronology (2016) · cites this paper as [43]
Dates within an R_Combine or Combine function, or dates forming part of a tree-ring defined wiggle-match, were assessed and down-weighted as outliers using the OxCal SSimple Outlier model.
“Dates within an R_Combine (or Combine) function, or dates forming part of a tree-ring defined wiggle-match [139, 140], were assessed and down-weighted as outliers using the OxCal SSimple Outlier model [138].”
From Second Intermediate Period date for the Thera (Santorini) eruption and historical implications (2022) · cites this paper as [139]
The GOR juniper chronology can be near-absolutely dated via 14C "wiggle matching," with the midpoint of the first dated tree ring block placed ~3686 cal B.P. (1737 BCE) versus IntCal04 and IntCal98, or 1 year earlier against IntCal13.
“The latter can be near-absolutely dated via 14C “wiggle matching” (39) (with instances of dates on the very same tree rings combined as weighted averages), with the midpoint of the first dated tree ring block placed ~3686 cal B.P. (1737 BCE) versus IntCal04 and IntCal98 (Fig. 1B) (27) or 1 year earlier against IntCal13.”
From Mediterranean radiocarbon offsets and calendar dates for prehistory (2020) · cites this paper as [39]
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- Authors
- Bronk Ramsey, C., van der Plicht, J., & Weninger, B.
- Affiliations
- University of Cologne (DE)
- ORCID
- Weninger, B
- Venue
- Radiocarbon
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2001
- Volume
- 43
- Issue
- 2A
- Pages
- 381-389
- ISSN
- 0033-8222 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-5755
- OpenAlex
- W2112825244
- Cited by
- 432
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 28 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 19
- FWCI
- 5.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Radiocarbon (publishedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- UA Campus Repository (The University of Arizona) (acceptedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tree-ring climate responses
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- wiggle matching, radiocarbon calibration, calibration curve, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian dating, dating uncertainty, probabilistic methods
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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