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Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing

Klayman, Joshua, Ha, Young-won·1987·Psychological Review

DOI 10.1037/0033-295x.94.2.211

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Abstract

Strategies for hypothesis testing in scientific investigation and everyday reasoning have interested both psychologists and philosophers. A number of these scholars stress the importance of disconnrmation in reasoning and suggest that people are instead prone to a general deleterious "confirmation bias." In particular, it is suggested that people tend to test those cases that have the best chance of verifying current beliefs rather than those that have the best chance of falsifying them. We show, however; that many phenomena labeled "confirmation bias" are better understood in terms of a general positive test strategy. With this strategy, there is a tendency to test cases that are expected (or known) to have the property of interest rather than those expected (or known) to lack that property. This strategy is not equivalent to confirmation bias in the first sense; we show that the positive test strategy can be a very good heuristic for determining the truth or falsity of a hypothesis under realistic conditions. It can, however, lead to systematic errors or inefficiencies. The appropriateness of human hypothesis-testing strategies and prescriptions about optimal strategies must be understood in terms of the interaction between the strategy and the task at hand.

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Authors: Klayman, J., & Ha, Y.-W.
Affiliations: University of Chicago (US)
ORCID: Klayman, Joshua
Venue: Psychological Review
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 1987-04
Volume: 94
Issue: 2
Pages: 211-228
ISSN: 0033-295X (ISSN-L)
1939-1471
DOI: 10.1037/0033-295x.94.2.211
OpenAlex: W2124371667
Cited by: 2,094
References: 107
Citations by year: 2026: 28 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 53 · 2023: 51 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 71 · 2020: 60 · 2019: 60 · 2018: 70 · 2017: 72 · 2016: 47 · 2015: 57 · 2014: 53 · 2013: 61 · 2012: 71
FWCI: 22.99
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Psychological Review (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (8309586)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Psychology › General Psychology › Academic and Historical Perspectives in Psychology
Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
Keywords: hypothesis testing, confirmation bias, disconfirmation, falsification, heuristics, scientific reasoning, everyday reasoning

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Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing

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