Cited by 176Early Childhood Education and DevelopmentGrit, Self-Efficacy, and MotivationCognitive Abilities and Testing

A systematic review and meta-analysis of effects of early life non-cognitive skills on academic, psychosocial, cognitive and health outcomes

Open access
Smithers, Lisa G., Sawyer, Alyssa C. P., Chittleborough, Catherine R., Davies, Neil M., Davey Smith, George, Lynch, John W.·2018·Nature Human Behaviour

Abstract

Success in school and the labour market relies on more than high intelligence. Associations between ‘non-cognitive’ skills in childhood, such as attention, self-regulation and perseverance, and later outcomes have been widely investigated. In a systematic review of this literature, we screened 9,553 publications, reviewed 554 eligible publications and interpreted results from 222 better-quality publications. Better-quality publications comprised randomized experimental and quasi-experimental intervention studies (EQIs) and observational studies that made reasonable attempts to control confounding. For academic achievement outcomes, there were 26 EQI publications but only 14 were available for meta-analysis, with effects ranging from 0.16 to 0.37 s.d. However, within subdomains, effects were heterogeneous. The 95% prediction interval for literacy was consistent with negative, null and positive effects (−0.13 to 0.79). Similarly, heterogeneous findings were observed for psychosocial, cognitive and language, and health outcomes. Funnel plots of EQIs and observational studies showed asymmetric distributions and potential for small study bias. There is some evidence that non-cognitive skills associate with improved outcomes. However, there is potential for small study and publication bias that may overestimate true effects, and the heterogeneity of effect estimates spanned negative, null and positive effects. The quality of evidence from EQIs underpinning this field is lower than optimal and more than one-third of observational studies made little or no attempt to control confounding. Interventions designed to develop children’s non-cognitive skills could potentially improve outcomes. The interdisciplinary researchers interested in these skills should take a more strategic and rigorous approach to determine which interventions are most effective. Smithers et al. find that, although there is some evidence that non-cognitive skills are associated with improved academic, psychosocial and health outcomes, the evidence is weak and heterogeneous. More rigorous research is required in this field.

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Crossref · 10.1038/s41562-018-0461-x

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Claims the paper makes

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  • Findingreasoning

    This review can say little about longer-term effects such as effects of non-cognitive skills on labour market experience because eligible studies lack data on longer-term outcomes or do not report it.

    “This review can say little about longer-term effects that are of central policy interest such as effects of non-cognitive skills on labour market experience because studies eligible for this review do not have data on longer-term outcomes or do not report it.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    For cognitive and language EQIs, effect sizes ranged from 0.27SD for expressive vocabulary to 0.56SD for general cognitive development.

    “For EQIs, Figure 2 (panel A) shows the effect sizes ranged from 0.27SD (95%CI 0.01 to 0.53) for expressive vocabulary to 0.56SD (95%CI 0.14 to 0.99) for general cognitive development.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The current body of evidence is severely limited given median follow-up periods for EQIs of only about one year.

    “Despite the policy enthusiasm and discussion of the importance of non-cognitive skills, the current body of evidence is severely limited given median follow-up periods for EQIs of only about one year.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The quality of evidence from EQIs underpinning this field is lower than optimal.

    “The quality of evidence from EQIs under-pinning this field is lower than optimal and more than a third of observational studies made little or no attempt to control confounding.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The 95% prediction intervals for all psychosocial outcomes were consistent with negative, null, and positive effects.

    “The 95% prediction interval for all psychosocial outcomes were consistent with negative, null and positive effects.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 62
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 67
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    Findingcitation

    Analysis of funnel plots demonstrates asymmetry of effect size and potential small study bias.

    “Analysis of funnel plots clearly demonstrate asymmetry of effect size and the potential of small study bias43.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [43] Egger, M. & Smith, G. D. Misleading meta-analysis. BMJ 310, 752–754 (1995). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Prediction intervals for observational academic achievement were consistent with negative, null, and positive effects, ranging from -0.01 to 0.33 for literacy and -0.07 to 0.52 for school readiness.

    “Prediction intervals were consistent with negative, null and positive effects, ranging from -0.01 to 0.33 for literacy and -0.07 to 0.52 for school readiness.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The 95% prediction interval for the 11 literacy EQI studies was -0.13 to 0.79, consistent with negative, null, and positive effects.

    “The 95% prediction interval for the 11 literacy studies available for meta-analysis was consistent with negative, null and positive effects (-0.13 to 0.79).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For observational academic achievement studies, effect sizes ranged from 0.16 for literacy to 0.22 for academic achievement and school readiness.

    “For observational studies, Figure 2 (panel B) shows effect sizes ranged from 0.16 (95%CI 0.12 to 0.20) for literacy and 0.22 (95%CI 0.14 to 0.31) for academic achievement and school readiness.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Of 554 eligible studies, 222 (40%) were rated better evidence, 21.5% weak, and 38.5% poor with effectively no attempt to control confounding.

    “Table 1 shows that of the 554 eligible studies, only 40% (n=222) were rated as “better” evidence, 21.5% classified as weak and 38.5% as poor, where there was effectively no attempt to control confounding.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    The systematic search identified 9553 articles from electronic and hand-searched sources.

    “The systematic search identified 9553 articles from electronic and hand-searched sources.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Funnel plots for both experimental and observational studies were positively skewed and consistent with smaller studies having larger effects.

    “Funnel plots for both experimental and observational studies were positively skewed and consistent with smaller studies having larger effects.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
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    Findingown data

    Only four studies could be included in the fade out analysis, with no clear pattern supporting fade out effects.

    “There were only four studies that could be included in this analysis, so interpretive caution is warranted with no clear pattern to support evidence of fade out effects.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
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    Findingown data

    Forest plots and 95% prediction intervals show large heterogeneity of reported effect sizes generally including the null.

    “Additionally, forest plots and 95% prediction intervals show large heterogeneity of reported effect sizes generally including the null.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    Associations between non-cognitive skills in childhood and later outcomes have been widely investigated.

    “Associations between “non-cognitive” skills in childhood, such as attention, self-regulation, and perseverance, and later outcomes have been widely investigated.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    After removing duplicates and assessing eligibility, 554 articles were included.

    “After removing duplicates and assessing eligibility, 554 articles were included and presented in a PRISMA36 flowchart (Figure 1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the meta-analysis, separating experimental/quasi-experimental interventions (EQIs) from observational publications showed larger effects for EQIs than for higher-quality observational studies, whose effects ranged from about 0.06 to 0.22 SD.

    “Presenting the analysis in Figure 2 by separating EQIs (Panel A) and observational publications (Panel B) shows larger effects from EQIs than found in higher quality observational studies which ranged from approximately 0.06 to 0.22SD.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    One quasi-experimental health study reported an effect of 0.79SD, but this effect is difficult to interpret because of inadequate description of the control group and outcome.

    “One quasi-experimental study reported an effect of 0.79SD, but this effect is difficult to interpret because of an inadequate description of the control group and the outcome.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    One higher-quality observational publication that examined six cohorts with 5.5-year follow-up reported effects from 0 to 0.2 SD, consistent with the review's observational findings.

    “This is consistent with one higher quality observational publication11 which examined six different cohorts with longer follow-up of 5.5 years and reported effects from 0 to 0.2SD.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [11] Duncan, G. J. et al. School readiness and later achievement. Dev. Psychol. 43, 1428–1446 (2007). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Most studies of self-regulation used the HTKS task and showed some effects on vocabulary.

    “Most studies of self-regulation used the HTKS task and showed some effects on vocabulary.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Intervention studies of non-cognitive skills at around age 4 with median follow-up under one year were generally consistent with short-term effects on academic achievement of 0.2 to 0.4 SD, but effects were heterogeneous, with 95% prediction intervals including negative, null, and positive effects.

    “These studies were generally consistent with 0.2 to 0.4SD short-term effects on academic achievement but effects were heterogeneous with 95% prediction intervals including negative, null and positive effects.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Observational studies on academic achievement generally showed effects around 0.2 SD, but all 95% prediction intervals included the null.

    “Observational studies on academic achievement generally showed effects around 0.2SD but all 95% prediction intervals included the null.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For executive function, effects ranged from -0.36 to 0.52SD, but the evidence is predominantly from convenience samples.

    “For executive function effects ranged from a detrimental -0.36 to 0.52SD, but the evidence is predominantly from convenience samples.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Three reasonably sized cluster RCTs provided the best estimate of the effect of non-cognitive skills on language and cognitive outcomes, finding effects of about 0.1 to 0.2 SD.

    “Three reasonably-sized cluster RCTs provided the best estimate of the effect of non-cognitive skills on language and cognitive outcomes25,49. They found effects of ~0.1 to 0.2SD.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [25] Raver, C. C. et al. CSRP’s Impact on low-income preschoolers’ preacademic skills: self-regulation as a mediating mechanism. Child Dev. 82, 362–378 (2011). source

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    • cites [49] Barnett, W. S. et al. Educational effects of the Tools of the Mind curriculum: a randomized trial. Early Child. Res. Q. 23, 299–313 (2008). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In this review, there is little evidence to decide which mode of delivery is best, and no evidence of attempts at purposive testing of which way to intervene.

    “In our review, there is little evidence to decide which mode of delivery is best and we can find no evidence of attempts at purposive testing of which way to intervene (e.g. teacher, student, parent or various combinations).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Observational studies provide little evidence that effects are likely to be bigger than about 0.1 SD, with seven of nine longitudinal studies showing few differences and cross-sectional studies reporting mixed effects (-0.38 to 0.56 SD).

    “The observational studies provide little evidence that the effects are likely to be bigger than ~0.1SD, with seven of nine longitudinal studies showing few differences and cross-sectional studies reporting mixed effects (-0.38 to 0.56SD).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Average age at intervention was around 4 years, with median follow-up under one year.

    “Average age at the time of intervention was around 4 years with median follow up time under one year.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Higher-quality RCTs examining externalising outcomes reported positive effects, and the largest RCT reported null effects.

    “Higher quality RCTs examining externalising outcomes, reported positive5152 and null effects in the largest of the RCTs37.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [5152]

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    • cites [37] Webster‐Stratton, C., Jamila Reid, M. & Stoolmiller, M. Preventing conduct problems and improving school readiness: evaluation of the incredible years teacher and child training programs in high‐risk schools. J. Child Psychol. Psychiatry 49, 471–488 (2008). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    All these studies were small (n=12 to 64) and reported effects that attenuated over time or were inconsistent at different ages.

    “However, all these studies were small (ranging from n=12 to 64) and reported effects that attenuated over time or were inconsistent at different ages.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation

    Research on non-cognitive skills in childhood has spanned many disciplines and traditions, leading to many constructs and tasks that are sometimes similar in definition and operationalisation.

    “Research that has examined non-cognitive skills in childhood has spanned many disciplines and research traditions, leading to a large number of constructs and tasks being investigated that are sometimes similar in their definition and operationalisation69,70.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [69] Duckworth, A. L. & Kern, M. L. A meta-analysis of the convergent validity of self-control measures. J. Res. Pers. 45, 259–268 (2011). source

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    • cites [70] Zhou, Q., Chen, S. H. & Main, A. Commonalities and differences in the research on children’s effortful control and executive function: a call for an integrated model of self-regulation. Child Dev. Perspect. 6, 112–121 (2012). source

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation

    Other studies imply that non-specific interventions seem to generate better generalised outcomes.

    “Other studies imply that non-specific interventions seem to generate better generalised outcomes31, which may suggest that more holistic programs including multi-dimensional content, may better support overall child development and broad-based benefits.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] Heckman, J. J., Pinto, R. & Savelyev, P. Understanding the mechanisms through which an early childhood program boosted adult outcomes. Am. Econ. Rev. 103, 2052–2086 (2013). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Exceptions were Barnett et al. and Blair and Raver, who examined effects of the Tools of the Mind intervention in cluster RCTs and both found small effects of about 0.1 SD for vocabulary.

    “Exceptions were: Barnett et al.49 and Blair and Raver79 who examined effects of Tools of the Mind intervention in cluster RCTs and both found small effects of ~0.1SD for vocabulary.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [49] Barnett, W. S. et al. Educational effects of the Tools of the Mind curriculum: a randomized trial. Early Child. Res. Q. 23, 299–313 (2008). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [79] Blair, C. & Raver, C. C. Closing the achievement gap through modification of neurocognitive and neuroendocrine function: results from a cluster randomized controlled trial of an innovative approach to the education of children in kindergarten. PLoS ONE 9, e112393 (2014). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The Continuous Performance Task is used in executive functioning research as a measure of sustained attention and inhibitory control, but also as a measure of effortful control.

    “For example the Continuous Performance Task (aka “Go/No Go” task) is used in executive functioning research as a measure of sustained attention and inhibitory control, but it is also used as a measure of effortful control70.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [70] Zhou, Q., Chen, S. H. & Main, A. Commonalities and differences in the research on children’s effortful control and executive function: a call for an integrated model of self-regulation. Child Dev. Perspect. 6, 112–121 (2012). source

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation

    The Head Toes Knees Shoulders Task has been used to measure both behavioural self-regulation and executive functioning.

    “Similarly, the “Head Toes Knees Shoulders Task” has been used to measure both behavioural self-regulation73 and executive functioning74.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [73] Ponitz, C. C., McClelland, M. M., Matthews, J. & Morrison, F. J. A structured observation of behavioral self-regulation and its contribution to kindergarten outcomes. Dev. Psychol. 45, 605–619 (2009). source

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    • cites [74] Cameron, C. E. et al. Fine motor skills and executive function both contribute to kindergarten achievement. Child Dev. 83, 1229–1244 (2012). source

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Outcomes across the 28 better-quality observational studies were diverse, ranging from anthropometry to injury to physiological characteristics, and were consistent with effects ranging from 0.06 to 0.14 SD.

    “Outcomes reported across the 28 better quality observational studies were diverse ranging from anthropometry, to injury to physiological characteristics and were consistent with effects ranging from 0.06 to 0.14SD.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The longitudinal studies were dominated by non-cognitive skills measured using the HTKS and the WJ Picture Vocabulary as the outcome, and despite the popularity of these tools, the results indicate no effects on vocabulary outcomes.

    “The longitudinal studies were dominated by non-cognitive skills measured using the HTKS and the WJ Picture Vocabulary as the outcome, and despite the popularity of these measurement tools, the results indicate no effects on vocabulary outcomes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The largest effect sizes came from a well-designed regression discontinuity study (0.44 SD), a non-randomised intervention (0.55-0.73 SD), and a small, low-quality randomised trial.

    “The largest effect sizes were from a well-designed regression discontinuity study (0.44SD)58, a non-randomised intervention (0.55-0.73SD)59 and a small, low quality randomised trial60.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [58] Weiland, C. & Yoshikawa, H. Impacts of a pre kindergarten program on children’s mathematics, language, literacy, executive function, and emotional skills. Child Dev. 84, 2112–2130 (2013). source

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    • cites [59] Bradley, R. T., Galvin, P., Atkinson, M. & Tomasino, D. Efficacy of an emotion self-regulation program for promoting development in preschool children. Glob. Adv. Health Med. 1, 36–50 (2012). source

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    • cites [60] Ford, R. M., McDougall, S. J. & Evans, D. Parent-delivered compensatory education for children at risk of educational failure: improving the academic and self-regulatory skills of a Sure Start preschool sample. Br. J. Psychol. 100, 773–797 (2009). source

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Another RCT showed that effects on literacy depended on the component of literacy measured, and effects on some outcomes faded after one year.

    “Similarly, another RCT showed that effects on literacy depended on the component of literacy that was measured40,41 and effects on some outcomes faded after one year42.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [40] Nix, R. L., Bierman, K. L., Domitrovich, C. E. & Gill, S. Promoting children’s social-emotional skills in preschool can enhance academic and behavioral functioning in kindergarten: findings from Head Start REDI. Early Educ. Dev. 24, 1000–1019 (2013). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [41] Bierman, K. L. et al. Promoting academic and social‐emotional school readiness: the Head Start REDI program. Child Dev. 79, 1802–1817 (2008). source

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    • cites [42] Bierman, K. L. et al. Effects of Head Start REDI on children’s outcomes 1 year later in different kindergarten contexts. Child Dev. 85, 140–159 (2014). source

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingreasoning

    Such an intervention has generated about 13% greater improvement than the natural growth in reading during that time.

    “Such an intervention has generated about 13% greater improvement than the natural growth in reading during that time.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    No RCTs had a formal pre-registered protocol, and two-thirds did not explicitly identify primary outcomes.

    “No RCTs had a formal pre-registered protocol and two thirds did not explicitly identify primary outcomes (See Supplementary Table 6 on Risk of Bias Tool83).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [83] Higgins, J. P. T. et al. The Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. BMJ 343, d5928 (2011). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    It was common for cluster RCTs to have too few clusters to achieve balance between intervention and control groups, and in some it was unclear whether clustering was adequately dealt with in the analysis.

    “It was common for cluster RCTs to have too few clusters to achieve balance between intervention and control groups and in some it was unclear whether clustering was adequately dealt with in the analysis85.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [85] Leyrat, C., Morgan, K., Leurent, B. & Kahan, B. Cluster randomized trials with a small number of clusters: which analyses should be used? Int. J. Epidemiol. 47, 321–331 (2018). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The effect estimates show underlying heterogeneity, with 95% prediction intervals generally consistent with negative, null, and positive effects.

    “We urge caution in interpreting this overall finding as unequivocally positive, given the potential for small study (publication) bias that may over-estimate the true effects, and the underlying heterogeneity of effect estimates as shown in 95% prediction intervals that were generally consistent with negative, null and positive effects.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    This review clearly demonstrated large between-study heterogeneity, with 95% prediction intervals consistent with negative, null, and positive effects among sub-domains such as literacy and numeracy.

    “This review clearly demonstrated large between-study heterogeneity from 95% prediction intervals that were consistent with negative, null and positive effects among sub-domains such as literacy and numeracy.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The quality of RCTs was not ideal, and reporting of some details was poor or even absent.

    “The quality of RCTs was not ideal and reporting of some details was poor or even absent.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The review sought to examine whether studies using more representative population-based samples tended to generate smaller effect estimates, but the number of population-based samples in this field is rather small.

    “For instance we sought to examine whether studies that used more representative population-based samples tended to generate smaller effect estimates, but the number of population-based samples in this field is actually rather small.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Ninety-two percent of RCTs did not adequately report randomisation procedures, 81% did not report concealment of allocation processes and participant flow, and most failed to address missing data.

    “Ninety-two percent of RCTs did not adequately report randomisation procedures, 81% did not report concealment of allocation processes and participant flow, and most failed to address missing data.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Studies typically began at age 4-5, with median follow-up of about one year, and very few studies had follow-up beyond age 10, so there is very little evidence addressing medium- to longer-term outcomes.

    “Studies typically began at age 4-5, with median follow-up of about one year, and with very few studies with follow-up beyond age 10, there is very little evidence addressing effects on medium to longer-term outcomes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    There were only four studies in which the review could assess evidence for fade-out, and results were inconclusive.

    “There were only four studies in which we could assess evidence for fade out and results were inconclusive.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingreasoning

    Poor reporting made it difficult to fully assess study quality.

    “Poor reporting made it difficult to fully assess study quality and we strongly encourage researchers, journal editors and reviewers to use tools such as the CONSORT statement (http://www.consort-statement.org/) for reporting, and for RCTs to be pre-registered.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The overall meta-analysed effects from EQIs may be over-estimates that include a null effect.

    “This suggests the overall meta-analysed effects from EQIs reported here may be over-estimates that include a null effect.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The review assessed risk of bias in EQIs using a Risk of Bias tool.

    “some of the EQIs included in better evidence did not receive high quality ratings according to the Risk of Bias tool (Supplementary Table 6).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning

    Effect sizes from EQIs and observational studies would only be comparable if the EQI induced a SD change in the particular non-cognitive skill.

    “Furthermore, (as pointed out by a reviewer) effect sizes from EQIs and observational studies would only be comparable if the EQI induced a SD change in the particular non-cognitive skill.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Interventions to improve non-cognitive skills may directly improve outcomes or indirectly through cognitive ability or other mechanisms.

    “Interventions to improve non-cognitive skills may directly improve outcomes7,15, or indirectly, through cognitive ability or other mechanisms.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [7] Heckman, J. J. & Kautz, T. Hard evidence on soft skills. Labour Econ. 19, 451–464 (2012). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [15] Heckman, J. J. & Kautz, T. Fostering and Measuring Skills: Interventions that Improve Character and Cognition (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Heckman et al. reported that while the Perry Preschool intervention initially increased IQ, these increases were not maintained to age 7-8 years.

    “In analysing the long term outcomes of the trial, Heckman et al.31, reported that while initially the intervention increased IQ these increases were not maintained to age 7-8 years.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] Heckman, J. J., Pinto, R. & Savelyev, P. Understanding the mechanisms through which an early childhood program boosted adult outcomes. Am. Econ. Rev. 103, 2052–2086 (2013). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    If non-cognitive skills are not developed early in life, compensating later is extremely difficult and expensive, reducing returns on later investments.

    “It is argued that if these skills are not developed early in life, then it can be extremely difficult and expensive to compensate later in life, and this reduces returns on later investments6.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [6] Heckman, J. J. Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science 312, 1900–1902 (2006). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The review classified observational studies as better evidence only if they made reasonable attempts to control for confounding (endogeneity) bias.

    “observational studies that made reasonable attempts to control for confounding (endogeneity) bias.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Governments in many countries invest significant resources to bolster early life capabilities to sustain future economic productivity and social inclusion, especially for disadvantaged children.

    “It is also of great policy interest to governments in many countries3,4, who wish to sustain future economic productivity and social inclusion, by investing significant resources to bolster the development of human capabilities in early life5, especially for disadvantaged children.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [3] Skills for Social Progress: The Power of Social and Emotional Skills (OECD, Paris, 2015).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [4] Institute of Education The Impact of Non-cognitive Skills for Young People (UK Cabinet Office, 2013).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [5] Allen, G. Early Intervention: the Next Steps. An Independent Report to Her Majesty’s Government (UK Cabinet Office, 2011).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    That meta-analysis did not exclude poor-quality studies and did not explore potential small-study bias.

    “However, this meta-analysis did not exclude poor quality studies, and did not explore potential for small study bias.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [47] Allan, N. P., Hume, L. E., Allan, D. M., Farrington, A. L. & Lonigan, C. J. Relations between inhibitory control and the development of academic skills in preschool and kindergarten: a meta-analysis. Dev. Psychol. 50, 2368–2379 (2014). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Heckman and colleagues argued that the Perry Preschool intervention resulted in better outcomes not by increasing intelligence, but through fostering non-intelligence based socio-emotional personality skills.

    “While we can find no evidence that the Perry Preschool Program deliberately set out to influence non-cognitive abilities, Heckman and colleagues argued that the intervention resulted in better outcomes for the participants not as a result of increasing their intelligence, but through fostering non-intelligence based socio-emotional “personality” skills31 (p. 2503).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] Heckman, J. J., Pinto, R. & Savelyev, P. Understanding the mechanisms through which an early childhood program boosted adult outcomes. Am. Econ. Rev. 103, 2052–2086 (2013). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The HighScope Perry Preschool Program suggests other mechanisms may be involved.

    “However, the HighScope Perry Preschool Program started in 1962 suggests other mechanisms may be involved30,31.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [30] Schweinhart, L. J. et al. Lifetime Effects: The High/Scope Perry Preschool Study through Age 40 (High/Scope Press, Ypsilanti, 2005).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [31] Heckman, J. J., Pinto, R. & Savelyev, P. Understanding the mechanisms through which an early childhood program boosted adult outcomes. Am. Econ. Rev. 103, 2052–2086 (2013). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Heckman has argued that interventions to develop non-cognitive skills, especially in disadvantaged young children, have the potential for high rates of return due to positive effects in multiple life domains.

    “Heckman has argued that interventions to develop these skills, especially in disadvantaged young children have the potential for high rates of return due to their positive effects in multiple life domains6.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [6] Heckman, J. J. Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science 312, 1900–1902 (2006). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Non-cognitive traits are thought to be especially malleable in early life.

    “They have been the target of interventions, especially in early life when these traits are thought to be especially malleable16, and for disadvantaged children, who may benefit most6.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [16] Diamond, A. & Lee, K. Interventions shown to aid executive function development in children 4 to 12 years old. Science 333, 959–964 (2011). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data

    Our own longitudinal analyses in three large population-based cohorts in the UK and Australia showed both cognitive abilities and non-cognitive skills were important in explaining socioeconomic inequalities in academic achievement early in life, and non-cognitive skills were only weakly associated with cognitive ability.

    “For instance, our own longitudinal analyses in three large population-based cohorts in the UK and Australia showed both cognitive abilities and non-cognitive skills were important in explaining socioeconomic inequalities in academic achievement early in life and that non-cognitive skills were only weakly associated with cognitive ability17.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [17] Pearce, A. et al. Do early life cognitive ability and self-regulation skills explain socio-economic inequalities in academic achievement? An effect decomposition analysis in UK and Australian cohorts. Soc. Sci. Med. 165, 108–118 (2016). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Disadvantaged children may benefit most from interventions to improve non-cognitive skills.

    “They have been the target of interventions, especially in early life when these traits are thought to be especially malleable16, and for disadvantaged children, who may benefit most6.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [6] Heckman, J. J. Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science 312, 1900–1902 (2006). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Non-cognitive abilities have been associated with mental health, physical health, school readiness and academic achievement, crime, employment and income, and mortality.

    “Non-cognitive abilities have been associated with a number of shorter and longer-term outcomes including mental health18,19, physical health20, school readiness and academic achievement21,22, crime23, employment and income10, and mortality24.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 5 sources checked
    • cites [18] Eisenberg, N. et al. Relations among maternal socialization, effortful control, and maladjustment in early childhood. Dev. Psychopathol. 22, 507–525 (2010). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [19] Fergusson, D. M., Boden, J. M. & Horwood, L. Childhood self-control and adult outcomes: results from a 30-year longitudinal study. J. Am. Acad. Child Adolesc. Psychiatry 52, 709–717.e1 (2013). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [20] Evans, G. W., Fuller-Rowell, T. E. & Doan, S. N. Childhood cumulative risk and obesity: the mediating role of self-regulatory ability. Pediatrics 129, e68–e73 (2012). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [21] Blair, C. & Razza, R. P. Relating effortful control, executive function, and false belief understanding to emerging math and literacy ability in kindergarten. Child Dev. 78, 647–663 (2007). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [22] Mischel, W., Shoda, Y. & Peake, P. K. The nature of adolescent competencies predicted by preschool delay of gratification. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 54, 687–696 (1988). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Because the review deliberately selected higher-quality observational studies with more stringent confounder controls, the true effects of non-cognitive skills may be closer to those from higher-quality observational studies, which may include a null effect.

    “We deliberately selected higher quality observational studies with more stringent controls for confounding, so it is possible that true effects of non-cognitive skills are actually closer to those from higher quality observational studies that may include a null effect.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Children who received the Perry Preschool intervention went on to have more successful lives in adulthood including greater labour market success, reduced crime involvement and better health.

    “Despite this, children who received the intervention went on to enjoy more successful lives in adulthood including greater labour market success, reduced crime involvement and better health30,33,34.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [30] Schweinhart, L. J. et al. Lifetime Effects: The High/Scope Perry Preschool Study through Age 40 (High/Scope Press, Ypsilanti, 2005).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [33] Schweinhart, L. J., Weikart D. P. & Barnes, H. V. Significant Benefits: The High/Scope Perry Preschool Study Through Age 27 (Monographs of the High/Scope Educational Research Foundation) (High/Scope Press, Ypsilanti, 1993).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [34] Heckman, J., Moon, S. H., Pinto, R., Savelyev, P. & Yavitz, A. Analyzing social experiments as implemented: a reexamination of the evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program. Quant. Econom. 1, 1–46 (2010). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Observational studies often over-estimate effects found in large, well-designed RCTs.

    “This is the opposite of what is often seen where observational studies over-estimate effects found in large, well designed RCTs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [45] Fewell, Z., Davey Smith, G. & Sterne, J. A. The impact of residual and unmeasured confounding in epidemiologic studies: a simulation study. Am. J. Epidemiol. 166, 646–655 (2007). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Children's cognitive ability (intelligence or IQ) associates with academic achievement and later success in adulthood.

    “It is widely accepted that children’s cognitive ability (i.e., intelligence or IQ) associates with academic achievement and later success in adulthood26–29.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [26] Deary, I. J., Whiteman, M. C., Starr, J. M., Whalley, L. J. & Fox, H. C. The impact of childhood intelligence on later life: following up the Scottish mental surveys of 1932 and 1947. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 86, 130–147 (2004). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [27] Fergusson, D. M., John Horwood, L. & Ridder, E. M. Show me the child at seven II: childhood intelligence and later outcomes in adolescence and young adulthood. J. Child Psychol. Psychiatry 46, 850–858 (2005). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [28] Kuh, D., Richards, M., Hardy, R., Butterworth, S. & Wadsworth, M. E. Childhood cognitive ability and deaths up until middle age: a post-war birth cohort study. Int. J. Epidemiol. 33, 408–413 (2004). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [29] Whalley, L. J. & Deary, I. J. Longitudinal cohort study of childhood IQ and survival up to age 76. BMJ 322, 819–822 (2001). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Bowles and Gintis argued that schooling does not make children more intelligent, but socializes them into and rewards characteristics and behaviours valued in the labour market.

    “They argued that schooling does not make children more intelligent, rather, it socializes them into, and rewards, certain characteristics and behaviours that are valued in the labour market.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [1] Bowles, S. & Gintis, H. Schooling in Capitalist America: Educational Reform and the Contradictions of Economic Life (Basic Books, New York, 1976).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    This review covers the entire published interdisciplinary research field describing intentional efforts and observational analogues of interventions to improve development of non-cognitive skills, although most evidence comes from rich countries, especially the USA.

    “This review covers the entire published inter-disciplinary research field describing intentional efforts and observational analogues of interventions to improve development of non-cognitive skills, albeit with most evidence coming from rich countries, especially the USA.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Each approach points to different conceptualisations of where psychosocial problems arise and how, where, and with whom to intervene.

    “Each approach points to different conceptualisations of where psychosocial problems arise and for how, where and whom to intervene (e.g. teachers, psychologists, community nurses or social workers).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The scope of the review should minimise cherry-picking of results to bolster a particular concept, theory, or intervention.

    “The scope of the review should minimise ‘cherry picking’ of results to bolster a particular concept, theory or intervention.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The authors a priori created criteria for bias based on well-established procedures, including quality appraisal tools, evidence hierarchies, directed acyclic graphs, and content knowledge about potential sources of confounding and selection bias.

    “We a priori created criteria for bias based on well-established procedures including quality appraisal tools, evidence hierarchies, directed acyclic graphs and content knowledge about potential sources of confounding and selection bias.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    This diversity reflected different approaches to improving children's psychosocial outcomes, such as supporting parents or helping teachers manage classroom behaviour.

    “This diversity reflected different approaches to improving children’s psychosocial outcomes, such as supporting parents or helping teachers to manage classroom behaviour.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The compilation of 554 publications was systematic, but the assessment of evidence quality was based on the authors' judgement of potential bias.

    “The compilation of 554 publications was systematic but our assessment of the quality of the evidence is based on our judgement of the potential for bias.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Although the quality assessment involves subjective judgement, the authors are confident that any other reasonable assessment of evidence quality would not change the overall conclusions.

    “While this involves an element of subjective judgement, we are confident that any other reasonable assessment of the quality of evidence would not change the overall conclusions presented here.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    This exception highlights the potential value of these comparisons.

    “This exception highlights the potential value of these comparisons.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    It is possible that some relevant articles were not included, even though the review undertook an extensive search including multiple databases, numerous search terms, contacting authors, and hand searching reference lists.

    “It is possible that some relevant articles were not included in this review, even though we undertook an extensive search that included multiple databases, numerous search terms, contacting authors of potentially-relevant papers, and hand searching reference lists of published papers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The variable effects on externalising problems could be due to differences in intervention focus, mode of delivery, or implementation fidelity problems in larger trials.

    “These variable effects could be due to differences in the focus of intervention, mode of delivery (parent, teacher or both), or problems with implementation fidelity in larger trials.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Previous reviews of some aspects of non-cognitive skills have not been systematic in covering the entire literature or included screening for evidence quality.

    “While there have been reviews of some aspects of non-cognitive skills,3,4,14,15,47,63 none have been systematic in covering the entire literature, or included screening for evidence quality.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 6 sources checked
    • cites [3] Skills for Social Progress: The Power of Social and Emotional Skills (OECD, Paris, 2015).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [4] Institute of Education The Impact of Non-cognitive Skills for Young People (UK Cabinet Office, 2013).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [14] Borghans, L., Duckworth, A. L., Heckman, J. J. & Ter Weel, B. The economics and psychology of personality traits. J. Hum. Resour. 43, 972–1059 (2008).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [15] Heckman, J. J. & Kautz, T. Fostering and Measuring Skills: Interventions that Improve Character and Cognition (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [47] Allan, N. P., Hume, L. E., Allan, D. M., Farrington, A. L. & Lonigan, C. J. Relations between inhibitory control and the development of academic skills in preschool and kindergarten: a meta-analysis. Dev. Psychol. 50, 2368–2379 (2014). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [63] Diamond, A. Executive functions. Annu. Rev. Psychol. 64, 135–168 (2013). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    This may suggest that more holistic programs including multi-dimensional content may better support overall child development and broad-based benefits.

    “which may suggest that more holistic programs including multi-dimensional content, may better support overall child development and broad-based benefits.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisereasoning

    Small p values on the Egger regression coefficient suggest the presence of small study bias that may produce larger effects.

    “Small p values on the Egger regression coefficient suggest the presence of small study bias that may produce larger effects.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The y intercept of Egger regression is expected to be zero if there is an even spatial spread of studies within the funnel.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    When eligibility could not be determined from the title or abstract, the full text was reviewed, and unclear eligibility was resolved by group consensus.

    “Where eligibility was not able to be determined by the title or abstract the full text was reviewed, and when eligibility was unclear this was resolved by group consensus.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Their assessment of better quality evidence relied on a subjective judgment of the risk of bias from confounding.

    “Thus, our assessment of better quality evidence relied on a subjective judgment of the risk of bias from confounding.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Conditional exchangeability between exposed and unexposed is assumed for interpreting causal effects from observational data.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Cohen cautioned that generic application of effect sizes to all research fields was an operation fraught with many dangers.

    “He cautioned that such generic application of sizes of effects to all research fields was”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [92] Cohen, J. Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences 2nd edn (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, 1988).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Deciding whether an intervention is worth implementing will depend not only on its benefits but also on its costs, discount rate, scalability, and other considerations.

    “Deciding whether an intervention is worth implementing will depend not only on its benefits, but also its costs, discount rate, scalability and a range of other potential considerations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Even though these metrics are widely used as reference points, Cohen did not intend them to be used as absolutes.

    “Even though these metrics are widely, often ritualistically, used as reference points, Cohen did not intend them to be used as absolutes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [92] Cohen, J. Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences 2nd edn (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, 1988).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The impression is that new RCTs were not being explicitly justified on the basis of what was already known from existing RCTs.

    “so the impression is that new RCTs were not being explicitly justified on the basis of what was already known from existing RCTs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The first 300 references were screened as a group by all authors, and subsequent references were screened independently, with Kappa values for agreement above 0.80.

    “To ensure consistency of searching, the first 300 references were searched as a group by all authors and subsequent references were searched independently (Kappa values for agreement were >0.80).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Lipsey et al. present a sophisticated understanding of interpreting effect sizes.

    “Lipsey, et. al. present a sophisticated understanding of interpreting effect sizes96.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [96] Lipsey, M. W. et al. Translating the Statistical Representation of the Effects of Education Interventions into More Readily Interpretable Forms (US Department of Education, 2012).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Interventions that have small effects on average across the population and are cheap could be very cost-effective, particularly if they influence long-term outcomes in adulthood.

    “Interventions that have small effects on average across the population and that are cheap could be very cost effective, particularly if they influence long term outcomes in adulthood.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationnone given

    For example, if the best interventions available to improve a particular outcome found reliable effects of 0.2 SD when trialled in large population-based samples, then a novel intervention finding the same effect might be considered large.

    “For example, if the best interventions available to improve a particular outcome, found reliable effects of 0.2SD when trialled in large population based samples, then a novel intervention finding the same effect might be considered large.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The authors JL, LS and AS reviewed all eligible studies and rated their evidence quality as better, weak, or poor based on study design and confounding adjustment.

    “The authors JL, LS and AS reviewed all eligible studies and rated their evidence quality as ‘better, weak, or poor’ on the basis of study design and confounding adjustment (Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    ND independently reviewed data extraction for 15% of all studies, including all intervention studies, and consensus was reached for discrepancies.

    “LS, JL, CC, AS, TG and TN extracted data from articles. ND independently (i.e., blinded to assessments of other authors) reviewed the data extraction for 15% of all studies, including all intervention studies, and consensus was reached for the very small number of discrepancies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    To overcome the problem of missing variance or exact p values, they made assumptions about p values to calculate confidence intervals.

    “To overcome this problem for conducting meta-analyses using inverse variance weighting we were forced to make assumptions about p values to calculate confidence intervals.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: When p was reported as less than a specific value, p was assumed to equal that value (e.g., p<0.01 assumed p=0.01) for calculating confidence intervals.
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Larger effects observed in smaller RCTs may be due to several factors, including publication bias favouring positive results, true heterogeneity due to differing baseline risks, implementation difficulties in maintaining intensity and fidelity in larger community settings, and poorer methodological design of smaller studies.

    “Larger effects observed in smaller RCTs may be due to several factors including publication bias favouring positive results, true heterogeneity of effects due to differing baseline risks in different intervention populations, implementation difficulties in maintaining intervention intensity and fidelity in larger community settings, and poorer methodological design of smaller studies81.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [81] Egger, M., Davey Smith, G., Schneider, M. & Minder, C. Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test. BMJ 315, 629–634 (1997). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Use of standardized effect measures has been criticized in several disciplines.

    “Use of such standardized effect measures has been criticized in several disciplines.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [93] Greenland, S., Maclure, M., Schlesselman, J. J., Poole, C. & Morgenstern, H. Standardized regression coefficients: a further critique and review of some alternatives. Epidemiology 2, 387–392 (1991). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [94] King, G. How not to lie with statistics: avoiding common mistakes in quantitative political science. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 30, 666–687 (1986). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In political science, King argued that if apples and oranges cannot be meaningfully compared on the original outcome measurement scale, this lack of comparability is not improved by comparing standardized fruit.

    “In political science, King argued that if apples and oranges cannot be meaningfully compared on the original outcome measurement scale then this lack of comparability is not improved by comparing standardized fruit94.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [94] King, G. How not to lie with statistics: avoiding common mistakes in quantitative political science. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 30, 666–687 (1986). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    For RCTs, risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Assessment Tool.

    “For RCTs, the risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Assessment Tool83 (Supplementary Table 6).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [83] Higgins, J. P. T. et al. The Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. BMJ 343, d5928 (2011). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Data extraction used a standardised form created by the authors.

    “The following information was systematically extracted from each article using a standardised form created by the authors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Only results from studies that met the definition of 'Better evidence' are reported.

    “Here we only report results from studies that met the definition of ‘Better evidence’.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Conditional exchangeability between exposed and unexposed is assumed for interpreting causal effects from observational data.
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Publications that made no attempt to statistically control for common causes of exposure and outcome were rated as poor because likelihood of confounding bias was high, and so could not inform assessment of likely causal effects.

    “Publications that made no attempt to statistically control for common causes of exposure and outcome were rated as ‘poor’ because the likelihood of confounding (endogeneity) bias was high, and so these publications could not inform any assessment of likely causal effects of non-cognitive skills on outcomes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Conditional exchangeability between exposed and unexposed is assumed for interpreting causal effects from observational data.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Therefore, the traditional labelling of an intervention as having small effects (~0.2 SD) is inappropriate because it fails to consider the research, policy, and practice context within which the intervention is situated.

    “Therefore, the traditional labelling of an intervention as having “small” effects (~0.2SD) is inappropriate because it fails to consider the research, policy and practice context within which the intervention is situated.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Causal interpretation of an exposure effect from observational data depends on several assumptions, one being conditional exchangeability between exposed and unexposed.

    “We adopted a “potential outcomes approach” to conceptualizing confounding where the interpretation of a ‘causal’ effect of an exposure estimated from observational data relies on several assumptions101.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [101] Little, R. J. & Rubin, D. B. Causal effects in clinical and epidemiological studies via potential outcomes: concepts and analytical approaches. Annu. Rev. Public Health 21, 121–145 (2000). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    To reduce bias from studies reporting multiple measures of the same outcome, they obtained an overall estimate across all reported measures.

    “To reduce bias that may have arisen from studies reporting multiple measures of the same outcome, we obtained an overall estimate across all of the reported measures.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In epidemiology, Greenland et al. have argued that standardizing effects, rather than making them more comparable across studies, serves to confound comparison by the observed standard deviation, which is often an artefact of the study sample, particularly for homogeneous convenience samples.

    “In epidemiology, Greenland et al.93, have argued that the process of standardizing effects, rather than making them more comparable across studies, simply serves to confound that comparison by the observed standard deviation, which is often an artefact of the study sample, particularly for homogenous convenience samples.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [93] Greenland, S., Maclure, M., Schlesselman, J. J., Poole, C. & Morgenstern, H. Standardized regression coefficients: a further critique and review of some alternatives. Epidemiology 2, 387–392 (1991). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationnone given

    Another way of norming effect size may be to consider the size of intervention effects against secular change in an outcome over time.

    “Another way of norming effect size may be to consider the size of intervention effects against secular change in an outcome over time.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The systematic review protocol was preregistered with PROSPERO in December 2013.

    “The systematic review protocol was preregistered with the International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO, CRD42013006566) in December 2013 and is available at: http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    They examined asymmetry of published evidence using funnel plots and Egger regression.

    “We examined asymmetry of the published evidence by generating funnel plots of effect size against inverse of study size separately for EQIs and observational studies (Supplementary Figures 20a-23b) and calculated the summary Egger regression coefficient and p value indicating the degree of asymmetry81.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [81] Egger, M., Davey Smith, G., Schneider, M. & Minder, C. Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test. BMJ 315, 629–634 (1997). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: The y intercept of Egger regression is expected to be zero if there is an even spatial spread of studies within the funnel.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    Searches were not restricted by language.

    “Searches were not restricted by language.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    It is frequently argued that non-cognitive skills developed in childhood have major impacts on long-term adult outcomes.

    “However, it is frequently argued that non-cognitive skills developed in childhood have major impacts on long-term adult outcomes6.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [6] Heckman, J. J. Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science 312, 1900–1902 (2006). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Thus, interventions with short-term effects but few detectable long-term effects are unlikely to be cost-effective.

    “Thus, interventions which have short term effects, but few detectable long-term effects are unlikely to be cost-effective.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    For example, they show that the secular growth in reading from kindergarten to grade one in the US is estimated to be about 1.5 SD, and by grades 4-5 this growth has declined to about 0.4 SD per year.

    “For example, they show that the secular growth in reading from kindergarten to grade one in the US is estimated to be about 1.5 SD. By grades 4-5 this growth has declined to about 0.4 SD per year.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [96] Lipsey, M. W. et al. Translating the Statistical Representation of the Effects of Education Interventions into More Readily Interpretable Forms (US Department of Education, 2012).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Overall, there is some evidence supporting a role for non-cognitive skills in better academic achievement, psychosocial, cognitive, and language outcomes, but these effects are highly heterogeneous as they relate to the shorter-term outcomes examined in this review.

    “Overall, yes, there is some evidence supporting a role for non-cognitive skills in better academic achievement, psychosocial, cognitive and language, but these effects are highly heterogeneous as they relate to the shorter-term outcomes examined in this review.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    The authors avoided labelling effect sizes as small (~0.2 SD), medium (~0.5 SD), or large (~0.8 SD) according to Cohen's suggestions.

    “We have avoided labelling effect sizes as “small (~0.2SD)”, “medium (~0.5SD)”, or “large (~0.8SD)” according to Cohen’s suggestions92.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [92] Cohen, J. Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences 2nd edn (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, 1988).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Study outcomes were not included as search terms, to capture all published outcomes associated with non-cognitive abilities.

    “Study outcomes were not included as search terms to capture all published outcomes associated with non-cognitive abilities.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
112 of 112
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    No prior systematic assessment of effects of improving different types of non-cognitive skills existed.

    “While it may be intuitive that there is more to success in life than high intelligence, there has been no attempt to systematically assess the research evidence on effects of improving different types of non-cognitive skills.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Children who develop cognitive and non-cognitive skills early in life have better outcomes later in life.

    “The investment logic is that children who develop cognitive and non-cognitive skills early in life have better outcomes later in life.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Data on effects of early life cognitive skills on later life outcomes are very limited.

    “However, data on effects of early life cognitive skills on these kinds of later life outcomes are very limited.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Non-cognitive skills such as sustained attention may scaffold later development of cognitive and non-cognitive abilities.

    “Non-cognitive skills, such as being able to sustain attention, may be especially important in this regard because they can scaffold later development of cognitive and non-cognitive abilities.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Observational results comparing higher and lower non-cognitive skills are often used as evidence for their importance in the same way as experimental results.

    “In observational (correlational) data, results from comparing outcomes for higher and lower levels of non-cognitive skills is often used as evidence for their importance in the same way as results from experimental studies.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Effects of interventions on the target non-cognitive skill are likely closer to 0.2 to 0.5 SD.

    “In reality, effects of interventions on the target non-cognitive skill might be closer to 0.2 to 0.5 SD.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Problems of endogeneity and confounding are well known and may substantially bias associations between non-cognitive skills and later outcomes.

    “Problems of endogeneity and confounding are well known and may result in substantial bias of the association of non-cognitive skills and later outcomes.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Conditional exchangeability between exposed and unexposed is assumed for interpreting causal effects from observational data.

    “One of the key assumptions is conditional exchangeability between exposed and unexposed.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    When p was reported as less than a specific value, p was assumed to equal that value (e.g., p<0.01 assumed p=0.01) for calculating confidence intervals.

    “If p was reported as less than a specific value we assumed p equalled that value, e.g. if p was reported as p<0.01 we assumed p=0.01 for the purpose of calculating confidence intervals.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The y intercept of Egger regression is expected to be zero if there is an even spatial spread of studies within the funnel.

    “The expectation is that the y intercept is zero if there is an even spatial spread of studies within the funnel.”
10 of 10

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • The scientific literature is particularly lacking in high-quality, longitudinal studies that assess both cognitive and noncognitive attributes before objectively gauging success outcomes weeks, months, and years later.

    “The scientific literature is particularly lacking in high-quality, longitudinal studies that assess both cognitive and noncognitive attributes before objectively gauging success outcomes weeks, months, and years later (16).”

    From Cognitive and noncognitive predictors of success (2019) · cites this paper as [16]

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Not every psychosocial prediction interval includes the null

    Minor

    The claim that all psychosocial prediction intervals span negative, null and positive effects conflicts with the later externalising-outcome interval for experimental and quasi-experimental studies, which runs from 0.07 to 0.39 and excludes both zero and negative effects.

1 of 1

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 110 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Smithers, L. G., Sawyer, A. C. P., Chittleborough, C. R., Davies, N. M., Davey Smith, G., & Lynch, J. W.
Affiliations
  • The University of Adelaide (AU)
  • University of Bristol (GB)
Corresponding author
Lynch, John W.
Venue
Nature Human Behaviour
Published
2018-11-05
Volume
2
Issue
11
Pages
867-880
ISSN
2397-3374 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2898299779
Cited by
175
References
110
Citations by year
2026: 13 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 11 · 2017: 1
FWCI
5.77
Type
journal article
Language
en
Locations
  • Nature Human Behaviour (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • Explore Bristol Research (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • University of Bristol
  • Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12013, MC_UU_00011/1)
  • Economic and Social Research Council (ES/N000757/1)
  • National Health and Medical Research Council (1099422, 1056888)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Education › Early Childhood Education and Development
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Grit, Self-Efficacy, and Motivation
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Cognitive Abilities and Testing
Keywords
non-cognitive skills, early childhood, academic performance, psychosocial outcomes, cognitive outcomes, health outcomes, self-regulation, attention, perseverance, literacy, publication bias, small-study bias, confounding adjustment, quality of evidence

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-07.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-07.

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