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Cited by 247Climate variability and modelsConservation, Biodiversity, and Resource ManagementHydrology and Drought Analysis

Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon

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Staal, Arie, Flores, Bernardo M, Aguiar, Ana Paula D, Bosmans, Joyce H C, Fetzer, Ingo, Tuinenburg, Obbe A·2020·Environmental Research Letters
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ab738e
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Abstract

Deforestation and drought are among the greatest environmental pressures on the Amazon rainforest, possibly destabilizing the forest-climate system. Deforestation in the Amazon reduces rainfall regionally, while this deforestation itself has been reported to be facilitated by droughts. Here we quantify the interactions between drought and deforestation spatially across the Amazon during the early 21st century. First, we relate observed fluctuations in deforestation rates to dry-season intensity; second, we determine the effect of conversion of forest to cropland on evapotranspiration; and third, we simulate the subsequent downwind reductions in rainfall due to decreased atmospheric water input. We find large variability in the response of deforestation to dry-season intensity, with a significant but small average increase in deforestation rates with a more intense dry season: with every mm of water deficit, deforestation tends to increase by 0.13% per year. Deforestation, in turn, has caused an estimated 4% of the recent observed drying, with the south-western part of the Amazon being most strongly affected. Combining both effects, we quantify a reinforcing drought-deforestation feedback that is currently small, but becomes gradually stronger with cumulative deforestation. Our results suggest that global climate change, not deforestation, is the main driver of recent drying in the Amazon. However, a feedback between drought and deforestation implies that increases in either of them will impede efforts to curb both.

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  • At the regional scale, a self-reinforcing feedback between forest loss and reduced atmospheric moisture flow may increase the resilience of open-canopy degraded ecosystems.

    “At the regional scale, a self-reinforcing feedback between forest loss and reduced atmospheric moisture flow may increase the resilience of these open-canopy degraded ecosystems42.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [42]

    The Abstract describes a regional feedback in which forest loss reduces recycled moisture and intensifies dry seasons. The Discussion says fire-related feedbacks may favor open vegetation and that forest loss could become self-perpetuating. It does not establish that reduced atmospheric moisture flow increases the resilience of open-canopy degraded ecosystems. (LLM, conf=0.83)

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  • Drought regimes are intensifying across the region, possibly due to deforestation that continues to expand within the system.

    “Drought regimes are intensifying across the region41, possibly due to deforestation42 that continues to expand within the system (Extended Data Fig. 5).”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [42]

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Cited by

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Authors
Staal, A., Flores, B. M., Aguiar, A. P. D., Bosmans, J. H. C., Fetzer, I., & Tuinenburg, O. A.
Affiliations
  • Stockholm Resilience Centre (SE)
  • Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
  • Radboud University Nijmegen (NL)
  • Utrecht University (NL)
Corresponding author
Staal, Arie
ORCID
Venue
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Published
2020-04-01
Volume
15
Issue
4
Pages
044024
ISSN
1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/ab738e
OpenAlex
W3005169610
Cited by
247
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 28 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 41 · 2022: 38 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 14
FWCI
11.35
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • EarthArXiv (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
  • Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
  • EarthArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • EarthArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
  • Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
  • Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (2016/25086-3)
  • H2020 European Research Council (743080 ERA)
  • Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (016.veni.171.019)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Keywords
Amazon rainforest, deforestation rates, evapotranspiration, forest-to-cropland conversion, rainfall decline, forest-climate interactions, climate change

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