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The Predictive Mind
Abstract
Jakob Hohwy explores a new theory in neuroscience: the idea that the brain is essentially a hypothesis-testing mechanism that attempts to minimise the error of its predictions about sensory input. He explains the rich and multifaceted character of our conscious perception, and argues that the mind has a fragile indirect relation to the world.
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In the citing paper
“According to these theories, predictions and incoming sensory input each have an associated precision (inverse variance) reflecting their confidence or reliability.”
From Precision weighting of cortical unsigned prediction error signals benefits learning, is mediated by dopamine, and is impaired in psychosis (2021) · cites this paper as [5]
In the citing paper
“The image of the brain as a prediction machine, constantly testing hypotheses against incoming evidence, provides an intuitive and generative way of thinking about neural function (Clark 2013; Hohwy 2013).”
From The myth of the Bayesian brain (2025) · cites this paper as Hohwy 2013
In the citing paper
“the brain is not an elaborate stimulus-response link but a statistical organ that actively generates explanations for the stimuli it encounters—in terms of hypotheses that are tested against sensory evidence.”
From Active interoceptive inference and the emotional brain (2016) · cites this paper as [5]
In the citing paper
“In AIF terms, the brain encodes a probabilistic generative model of the causes of its sensations, which it leverages to generate action”
From Active inference goes to school: the importance of active learning in the age of large language models (2024) · cites this paper as [35]
In the citing paper
“Rather than passively waiting for incoming sensory information, systems are proactive, generating ‘top–down’ predictions about future states”
From Active inference goes to school: the importance of active learning in the age of large language models (2024) · cites this paper as [35]
In the citing paper
“Perceptual inference, under these principles, associates conscious experience with the ‘explanation’ for the sensorium that minimizes prediction error throughout the hierarchy”
From 'Seeing the Dark': Grounding Phenomenal Transparency and Opacity in Precision Estimation for Active Inference (2018) · cites this paper as Hohwy, 2013
In the citing paper
“Predictive processing theories of cognition treat the brain as a neurally instantiated processing hierarchy, with generative models at higher levels predicting bottom-up inputs from lower levels.”
From Self unbound: ego dissolution in psychedelic experience (2017) · cites this paper as Hohwy 2013
In the citing paper
“Error signals are cancelled either by updating the model or by taking action to alter the discrepant input (Hohwy 2013).”
From Self unbound: ego dissolution in psychedelic experience (2017) · cites this paper as Hohwy 2013
In the citing paper
“The discrepancy between predicted and actual input takes the form of an error signal.”
From Self unbound: ego dissolution in psychedelic experience (2017) · cites this paper as Hohwy 2013
In the citing paper
“This may explain the historical affinity between Active Inference based accounts of consciousness and Global Workspace Theory (Hohwy, 2013; Whyte, 2019), which identifies access consciousness as the primary (and perhaps exclusive) explanandum for the science of consciousness (Cohen & Dennett, 2011; Dehaene et al., 2006; Naccache, 2018).”
From Integrated information and predictive processing theories of consciousness: An adversarial collaborative review (2026) · cites this paper as Hohwy, 2013
In the citing paper
“Predictive coding extends the above by positing a specific computational strategy for the brain: minimise the error between expected and actual inputs (15, 16).”
From Predictive coding and neurocomputational psychiatry: a mechanistic framework for understanding mental disorders (2026) · cites this paper as [16]
In the citing paper
“Recent developments in cognitive science and neuroscience have led to a growth of interest in “predictive processing” theories of mind and cognitive function (Clark 2013; Friston 2010; Hohwy 2013). These diverse approaches share a common ground in situating top-down, error-minimising predictions as the key locus of information processing, as opposed to more classical accounts which emphasize feed-”
From From cognitivism to autopoiesis: towards a computational framework for the embodied mind (2018) · cites this paper as Hohwy 2013
Citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–118 of 118
Pragmatism and the predictive mind
Williams, D. (2018) · Phenomenology and the Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11097-017-9556-5 · Cited by 22
What can body ownership illusions tell us about minimal phenomenal selfhood?
Limanowski, J. (2014) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2014.00946 · Cited by 25
Human innovation and the creative agency of the world in the age of generative AI
Peschl, M. F. (2024) · Possibility Studies & Society · doi:10.1177/27538699241238049 · Cited by 30
Is free-energy minimisation the mark of the cognitive?
Kiverstein, J., & Sims, M. (2021) · Biology & Philosophy · doi:10.1007/s10539-021-09788-0 · Cited by 23
Grasso, M., Haun, A. M., & Tononi, G. (2021) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niab022 · Cited by 19
Structural and contextual priors affect visual search in children with and without autism
Van de Cruys, S., Lemmens, L., Sapey‐Triomphe, L., Chetverikov, A., Noens, I., & Wagemans, J. (2021) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.2511 · Cited by 22
Cultivating creativity: predictive brains and the enlightened room problem
Constant, A., Friston, K. J., & Clark, A. (2024) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2022.0415 · Cited by 19
The Free Energy Principle: Good Science and Questionable Philosophy in a Grand Unifying Theory
Sánchez-Cañizares, J. (2021) · Entropy · doi:10.3390/e23020238 · Cited by 16
Gendron, M., Mesquita, B., & Barrett, L. F. (2020) · Culture, Mind, and Brain · doi:10.1017/9781108695374.010 · Cited by 20
Surprise! Why enactivism and predictive processing are parting ways: The case of improvisation
Gallagher, S. (2023) · Possibility Studies & Society · doi:10.1177/27538699221132691 · Cited by 15
Bayesian cognitive science, predictive brains, and the nativism debate
Colombo, M. (2018) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-017-1427-7 · Cited by 15
The myth of the Bayesian brain
Mangalam, M. (2025) · European Journal of Applied Physiology · doi:10.1007/s00421-025-05855-6 · Cited by 14
“…coding framework, and later the Free Energy Principle, did not begin as mechanistic models but as evocative metaphors—mathematical formalisms that invited reinterpretation of neural function in probabilistic terms (Clark 2013; Knill and Pouget 2004; Friston et al. 2006; Friston 2010; Hohwy 2013).”
InfluentialDi Paolo, L. D., White, B., Guénin-Carlut, A., Constant, A., & Clark, A. (2024) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2023.0148 · Cited by 14
Richards, K. L., Karvelis, P., Lawrie, S. M., & Seriès, P. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0243100 · Cited by 12
Shaw, A. D., Sumner, R. L., & Berndt, L. C. S. (2026) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2025.1713833 · Cited by 9
“Predictive coding extends the above by positing a speci fi c computational strategy for the brain: minimise the error between expected and actual inputs (15, 16).”
Editorial: Predictive Processing and Consciousness
Miller, M., Clark, A., & Schlicht, T. (2022) · Review of Philosophy and Psychology · doi:10.1007/s13164-022-00666-6 · Cited by 8
Theriault (n.d.) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/pkzr8 · Cited by 51
Corcoran, A. W., Haun, A. M., Dorman, R., Tononi, G., Friston, K. J., & Pennartz, C. M. A. (2026) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2026.106742 · Cited by 2
Metadata
- Authors
- Hohwy, J.
- Affiliations
- Monash University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Hohwy, Jakob
- ORCID
- Hohwy, Jakob
- Venue
- Oxford University Press eBooks
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Published
- 2013-11-28
- OpenAlex
- W379488513
- Cited by
- 1,914
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 187 · 2025: 197 · 2024: 175 · 2023: 132 · 2022: 133 · 2021: 175 · 2020: 214 · 2019: 202 · 2018: 142 · 2017: 138 · 2016: 93 · 2015: 86 · 2014: 32 · 2013: 6
- FWCI
- 27.55
- Type
- book
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Oxford University Press eBooks (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Libraries (Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), l'Université de Namur (UNamur) and the Université Saint-Louis (USL-B)) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Embodied and Extended Cognition
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Philosophy and Theoretical Science
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Free Will and Agency
- Keywords
- predictive processing, hypothesis testing, prediction error, conscious perception, sensory prediction, mind-brain relationship, Bayesian inference
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