Competition for land
Open accessAbstract
A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Smith, P., Gregory, P. J., van Vuuren, D., Obersteiner, M., Havlík, P., Rounsevell, M., Woods, J., Stehfest, E., & Bellarby, J.
- Affiliations
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Scottish Crops Research Institute (SCRI), Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA, UK
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 303, 3720 Bilthoven, The Netherlands
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Smith, Pete
- Venue
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2010-09-27
- Volume
- 365
- Issue
- 1554
- Pages
- 2941-2957
- ISSN
- 0962-8436 (ISSN-L)
- 1471-2970
- PMC
- PMC2935113
- OpenAlex
- W2119855777
- Cited by
- 487
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 35 · 2019: 26 · 2018: 33 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 49 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 41 · 2012: 51
- FWCI
- 5.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- land use change, food security, population growth, food preferences, protected areas, forest policy, agricultural policy, energy policy, conservation policy, ecosystem services, agricultural productivity, land use projections, policy interventions
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Food Supply, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Population Growth, Public Policy, Trees
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