Bioenergy: how much can we expect for 2050
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Estimates of global primary bioenergy potentials in the literature span almost three orders of magnitude. We narrow that range by discussing biophysical constraints on bioenergy potentials resulting from plant growth (NPP) and its current human use. In the last 30 years, terrestrial NPP was almost constant near 54 PgC yr −1 , despite massive efforts to increase yields in agriculture and forestry. The global human appropriation of terrestrial plant production has doubled in the last century. We estimate the maximum physical potential of the world's total land area outside croplands, infrastructure, wilderness and denser forests to deliver bioenergy at approximately 190 EJ yr −1 . These pasture lands, sparser woodlands, savannas and tundras are already used heavily for grazing and store abundant carbon; they would have to be entirely converted to bioenergy and intensive forage production to provide that amount of energy. Such a high level of bioenergy supply would roughly double the global human biomass harvest, with far-reaching effects on biodiversity, ecosystems and food supply. Identifying sustainable levels of bioenergy and finding ways to integrate bioenergy with food supply and ecological conservation goals remains a huge and pressing scientific challenge.
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Estimates of global primary bioenergy potentials available around 2050 published in the last 5 years span from 30 to 1300 EJ/year.
“Estimates of global primary bioenergy potentials available around 2050 published in the last 5 years span range from 30 to 1300 EJ/year [9,10].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [10]
Large energy crop potentials can only be justified by assuming the use of a large fraction of the Earth's surface or yields far exceeding current net primary production, or both.
“Large energy crop potentials can only be justified by assuming the use of a large fraction of the Earth's surface or yields far exceeding current net primary production, or both [10].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [10]
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- Authors
- Haberl, H., Erb, K.-H., Krausmann, F., Running, S., Searchinger, T. D., & Kolby Smith, W.
- Affiliations
- University of Montana (US)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Haberl, Helmut
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2013-09-01
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 031004
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2151597316
- Cited by
- 112
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 29.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- The Mathematics Enthusiast (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission (265104)
- Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
- Austrian Science Fund (263522, P20812)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanics of Materials › Forest Biomass Utilization and Management
- Keywords
- bioenergy potential, terrestrial net primary productivity, pasture, savanna, tundra, biomass harvesting, land use conversion, biophysical constraints, food supply, biodiversity impacts, sustainable bioenergy, 2050 projections
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