Stated expectations as functions of probability and desirability of outcomes

IRWIN, FRANCIS W.

doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x

Cited by 285Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsPsychometric Methodologies and TestingPsychological Testing and Assessment

Stated expectations as functions of probability and desirability of outcomes

IRWIN, FRANCIS W.·1953·Journal of Personality

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1111/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x

Cites

5 of 5 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

This lower risk perception might result in a laxer precautionary stance.
“Furthermore, this lower risk perception might result in a laxer precautionary stance (Optimistic Bias Theory; Irwin, 1953).”
From The privacy paradox – investigating discrepancies between expressed privacy concerns and actual online behavior – a systematic literature review (2017) · cites this paper as Irwin, 1953
Individuals have a tendency to underestimate the likelihood of experiencing adverse events.
“Individuals have a tendency to underestimate the likelihood of experiencing adverse events.”
From The privacy paradox – investigating discrepancies between expressed privacy concerns and actual online behavior – a systematic literature review (2017) · cites this paper as Irwin, 1953

An Experimental Measurement of Utility
Mosteller, F. C., & Nogee, P. (1951) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/257106 · Cited by 497 · see citing works
An Experimental Measurement of Utility
Mosteller, F. C., & Nogee, P. (2007) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-44956-2_11 · Cited by 420 · see citing works
THE EFFECT OF PROBABILITY, DESIRABILITY, AND "PRIVILEGE" ON THE STATED EXPECTATIONS OF CHILDREN*
Marks, R. W. (1951) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1951.tb01107.x · Cited by 234 · see citing works
Acquisition and extinction of a verbal conditioned response with differing percentages of reinforcement.
Grant, D. A., Hake, H. W., & Hornseth, J. P. (1951) · Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0054051 · Cited by 206 · see citing works
Probability as a determiner of rat behavior.
Brunswik, E. (1939) · Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0061204 · Cited by 177 · see citing works

Flagged first, then by citations

Sorted by citations

The case for motivated reasoning.
Kunda, Z. (1990) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480 · Cited by 9,022 · see citing works
Illusion and well‐being: A social psychological perspective on mental health
Taylor, S. E., & Brown, J. D. (1988) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.103.2.193 · Cited by 7,814 · see citing works
Unrealistic optimism about future life events
Weinstein, N. D. (1980) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806 · Cited by 4,999 · see citing works
Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2000) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x00003435 · Cited by 4,255 · see citing works
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.90.4.293 · Cited by 3,991 · see citing works
Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
Bottom, W. P., Gilovich, T. D., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. J. (2004) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.2307/20159081 · Cited by 3,579 · see citing works
Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives.
Kahneman, D. J., & Miller, D. T. (1986) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.93.2.136 · Cited by 3,174 · see citing works
The theory of decision making.
Edwards, W. (1954) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/h0053870 · Cited by 2,710 · see citing works
The Affect Heuristic
Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.025 · Cited by 2,349 · see citing works
“Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment.”
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.2648573 · Cited by 2,298 · see citing works
Heuristics and Biases
(2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098 · Cited by 2,214 · see citing works
On perceptual readiness.
Bruner, J. S. (1957) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/h0043805 · Cited by 2,086 · see citing works
Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average
Terrance Odean, B. (1998) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00078 · Cited by 1,925 · see citing works
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1992) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(92)90013-r · Cited by 1,796 · see citing works
Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?
Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/h0076486 · Cited by 2,575 · see citing works
Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.
Kahneman, D., & Frederick, S. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.004 · Cited by 3,476 · see citing works
The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6 · Cited by 1,649 · see citing works
The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2007) · Journal of Economic Literature · Cited by 1,427 · see citing works
Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability
Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.101.4.547 · Cited by 1,167 · see citing works
Self-serving biases in the attribution process: A reexamination of the fact or fiction question.
Bradley, G. W. (1978) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.36.1.56 · Cited by 1,127 · see citing works
Motivated inference: Self‐serving generation and evaluation of causal theories
Kunda, Z. (1987) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.53.4.636 · Cited by 1,059 · see citing works
Gender Differences in Risk Assessment: Why do Women Take Fewer Risks than Men?
Harris, C. R., & Jenkins, M. A. (2006) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500000346 · Cited by 843 · see citing works
Attribution of success and failure revisited, or: The motivational bias is alive and well in attribution theory
Zuckerman, M. (1979) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1979.tb00202.x · Cited by 1,136 · see citing works
The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning.
Nisbett, R. E., Krantz, D. H., Jepson, C., & Kunda, Z. (1983) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.90.4.339 · Cited by 826 · see citing works
The privacy paradox – investigating discrepancies between expressed privacy concerns and actual online behavior – a systematic literature review
Barth, S., & de Jong, M. D. T. (2017) · Telematics and Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.tele.2017.04.013 · Cited by 798 · see citing works
Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability.
Dunning, D., Meyerowitz, J. A., & Holzberg, A. D. (1989) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.57.6.1082 · Cited by 758 · see citing works
Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability
Dunning, D. A., Meyerowitz, J. A., & Holzberg, A. D. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.020 · Cited by 688 · see citing works
Situated Optimism: Specific Outcome Expectancies and Self-Regulation
Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (1998) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60386-x · Cited by 453 · see citing works
Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events.
Hoch, S. J. (1985) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037/0278-7393.11.1-4.719 · Cited by 410 · see citing works
Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: Advances in support theory.
Rottenstreich, Y., & Tversky, A. (1997) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.104.2.406 · Cited by 437 · see citing works
Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value
Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.008 · Cited by 410 · see citing works
Two Systems of Reasoning
Sloman, S. A. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.024 · Cited by 407 · see citing works
Seven Principles of Goal Activation: A Systematic Approach to Distinguishing Goal Priming From Priming of Non-Goal Constructs
Förster, J., Liberman, N., & Friedman, R. (2007) · Personality and Social Psychology Review · doi:10.1177/1088868307303029 · Cited by 408 · see citing works
Adolescent (in)vulnerability.
Quadrel, M. J., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, W. (1993) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037//0003-066x.48.2.102 · Cited by 397 · see citing works
The Courage of Misguided Convictions
Barber, B. M., & Terrance Odean, B. (1999) · Financial Analysts Journal · doi:10.2469/faj.v55.n6.2313 · Cited by 441 · see citing works
Abandoning unrealistic optimism: Performance estimates and the temporal proximity of self-relevant feedback.
Shepperd, J. A., Ouellette, J. A., & Fernandez, J. K. (1996) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.70.4.844 · Cited by 390 · see citing works
Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease
Sherman, S. J., Cialdini, R. B., Schwartzman, D. F., & Reynolds, K. D. (1985) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167285111011 · Cited by 384 · see citing works
When less is more: Counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists.
Medvec, V. H., Madey, S. F., & Gilovich, T. D. (1995) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.69.4.603 · Cited by 507 · see citing works
Venture Theory: A Model of Decision Weights
Hogarth, R. M., & Einhorn, H. J. (1990) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.36.7.780 · Cited by 337 · see citing works
Expectancy × value effects: Regulatory focus as determinant of magnitude and direction.
Shah, J. Y., & Higgins, E. T. (1997) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.73.3.447 · Cited by 335 · see citing works
Assessing uncertainty in physical constants
Henrion, M., & Fischhoff, B. (1986) · American Journal of Physics · doi:10.1119/1.14447 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Introduction – Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now
Gilovich, T. D., & Griffin, D. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.002 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives
Kahneman, D. J., & Miller, D. T. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.022 · Cited by 284 · see citing works
The influence of outcome desirability on optimism.
Križan, Z., & Windschitl, P. D. (2007) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.133.1.95 · Cited by 287 · see citing works
Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets
Forsythe, R. S., Rietz, T. A., & Ross, T. W. (1999) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/s0167-2681(99)00027-x · Cited by 283 · see citing works
Additivity, utility, and subjective probability
Tversky, A. (1967) · Journal of Mathematical Psychology · doi:10.1016/0022-2496(67)90049-1 · Cited by 280 · see citing works
MOTIVATIONAL AND ABILITY DETERMINANTS OF YOUNG CHILDREN'S INTELLECTUAL ACHIEVEMENT BEHAVIORS
Crandall, V. J., Katkovsky, W., & Preston, A. (1962) · Child Development · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8624.1962.tb05104.x · Cited by 259 · see citing works
The Electoral Implications of Candidate Ambiguity
Tomz, M. R., & Houweling, R. P. V. (2009) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055409090066 · Cited by 253 · see citing works
Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox
Erev, I., & Cohen, B. L. (1990) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/0749-5978(90)90002-q · Cited by 250 · see citing works
Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice
Slovic, P., Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.014 · Cited by 233 · see citing works
Expectancy changes in skill and chance situations.
Phares, E. J. (1957) · Journal of Abnormal & Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0045684 · Cited by 231 · see citing works
Investor Sentiment and Stock Market Liquidity
Liu, S. (2015) · Journal of Behavioral Finance · doi:10.1080/15427560.2015.1000334 · Cited by 228 · see citing works
From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss functions on the evaluation of uncertain outcomes and events.
Weber, E. U. (1994) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.115.2.228 · Cited by 223 · see citing works
Subjective probability and decision under uncertainty.
Feather, N. T. (1959) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/h0045692 · Cited by 223 · see citing works
Unrealistic optimism about future life events: A cautionary note.
Harris, A. J. L., & Hahn, U. (2010) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/a0020997 · Cited by 217 · see citing works
The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information
Schwarz, N., & Vaughn, L. A. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.007 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism
Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.021 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”
Rozin, P. N., & Nemeroff, C. J. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.013 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
When prophecy bends: The preference-expectation link in U.S. presidential elections, 1952-1980.
Granberg, D. O., & Brent, E. E. (1983) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.45.3.477 · Cited by 185 · see citing works
How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments.
Bar‐Hillel, M., & Neter, E. (1993) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.65.6.1119 · Cited by 189 · see citing works
Affective decision making: A theory of optimism bias
Bracha, A., & Brown, D. J. M. (2012) · Games Econ. Behav. · doi:10.1016/j.geb.2011.11.004 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Mass Response to the Lewinsky Scandal: Motivated Reasoning or BayesianUpdating?
Fischle, M. (2000) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/0162-895x.00181 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate?
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.026 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.016 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions.
Weinstein, N. D., & Klein, W. M. P. (1995) · Health Psychology · doi:10.1037//0278-6133.14.2.132 · Cited by 593 · see citing works
Spontaneous Skepticism: The Interplay of Motivation and Expectation in Responses to Favorable and Unfavorable Medical Diagnoses
Ditto, P. H., Munro, G. D., Apanovitch, A. M., Scepansky, J. A., & Lockhart, L. K. (2003) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167203254536 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets
Kirchler, E. M., & Maciejovsky, B. (2002) · Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · doi:10.1023/a:1016319430881 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction.
Byram, S. J. (1997) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Applied · doi:10.1037/1076-898x.3.3.216 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Inferential Correction
Gilbert, D. T. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.011 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Feelings as Information: Moods Influence Judgments and Processing Strategies
Schwarz, N. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.031 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
The calibration of expert judgment: heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory
Koehler, D. J., Brenner, L., & Griffin, D. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.041 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
Utility theory and additivity analysis of risky choices.
Tversky, A. (1967) · Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0024915 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Estimating the probability of negative events
Harris, A. J. L., Corner, A., & Hahn, U. (2008) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2008.10.006 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Ecologically rational choice and the structure of the environment.
Pleskac, T. J., & Hertwig, R. (2014) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0000013 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Learned helplessness in humans: A developmental analysis
Fincham, F. D., & Cain, K. M. (1986) · Developmental Review · doi:10.1016/0273-2297(86)90016-x · Cited by 135 · see citing works
The negativity effect and its implications for initial interaction
Kellermann, K. (1984) · Communication Monographs · doi:10.1080/03637758409390182 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
The Postulates of Expectancy Theory
Behling, O. C., & Starke, F. A. (1973) · Academy of Management Journal · doi:10.2307/254999 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself
Miller, D. T., & Taylor, B. R. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.023 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
How Good are Fast and Frugal Heuristics?
Gigerenzer, G., Czerlinski, J., & Martignon, L. F. (1999) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4615-5089-1_6 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives
Pronin, E., Puccio, C., & Ross, L. D. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.038 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
The Psychology of Chance*
Langer, E. J. (1977) · Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour · doi:10.1111/j.1468-5914.1977.tb00384.x · Cited by 119 · see citing works
The elusive wishful thinking effect
Bar‐Hillel, M., & Budescu, D. V. (1995) · Thinking & Reasoning · doi:10.1080/13546789508256906 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Patient Decision-making Behavior
Pierce, P. F., & Hicks, F. D. (2001) · Nursing Research · doi:10.1097/00006199-200109000-00003 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. J. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.003 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
The Role of Self-Deception in Perceptions of Past, Present, and Future Happiness
Robinson, M. D., & Ryff, C. D. (1999) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167299025005005 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Automated Choice Heuristics
Frederick, S. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.032 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
A pessimistic view of optimistic belief updating
Shah, P., Harris, A. J. L., Bird, G., Catmur, C., & Hahn, U. (2016) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.cogpsych.2016.05.004 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Confidence in the prediction and postdiction of an uncertain outcome.
Rothbart, M., & Snyder, M. (1970) · Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science/Revue canadienne des sciences du comportement · doi:10.1037/h0082709 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
How prevalent is wishful thinking? Misattribution of arousal causes optimism and pessimism in subjective probabilities.
Vosgerau, J. (2010) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/a0018144 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
The Courage of Misguided Convictions: The Trading Behavior of Individual InvestorsPreprint
Barber, B. M., & Terrance Odean, B. (2000) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.219175 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Surprise and Motivation of Causal Search: How Are They Affected by Outcome Valence and Importance?
Gendolla, G. H. E., & Koller, M. T. (2001) · Motivation and Emotion · doi:10.1023/a:1014867700547 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Do Analysts Overreact?
Bondt, W. F. M. D., & Thaler, R. H. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.040 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Preschool-Age Children's Performance Expectations for Themselves and Another Child as a Function of the Incentive Value of Success and the Salience of Past Performance
Stipek, D. J., Roberts, T. A., & Sanborn, M. E. (1984) · Child Development · doi:10.2307/1129773 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
The relationship between the illusion of control and the desirability bias
Budescu, D. V., & Bruderman, M. (1995) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.3960080204 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Value as a Determiner of Subjective Probability
Slovic, P. (1966) · IEEE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics · doi:10.1109/thfe.1966.231980 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Wishful Thinking about the Future: Does Desire Impact Optimism?
Križan, Z., & Windschitl, P. D. (2009) · Social and Personality Psychology Compass · doi:10.1111/j.1751-9004.2009.00169.x · Cited by 78 · see citing works
A negativity bias in interpersonal evaluation
Amabile, T. M., & Glazebrook, A. H. (1982) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/0022-1031(82)90078-6 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Losses loom more likely than gains: Propensity to imagine losses increases their subjective probability
Bilgin, B. (2012) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.03.008 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem
Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., & Brekke, N. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.012 · Cited by 160 · see citing works
The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism
Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., Rose, J. P., & Križan, Z. (2009) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2009.08.003 · Cited by 72 · see citing works

Probability Preferences and Expected Values
Scodel, A. (1963) · The Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1080/00223980.1963.9916658 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Expectancy Statements and Decision Times as Functions of Objective Probabilities and Reinforcement Values
Crandall, V. J., Solomon, D., & Kellaway, R. (1955) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1955.tb01184.x · Cited by 61 · see citing works
THE EFFECT OF PROBABILITY, DESIRABILITY, AND "PRIVILEGE" ON THE STATED EXPECTATIONS OF CHILDREN*
Marks, R. W. (1951) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1951.tb01107.x · Cited by 234 · see citing works
Valence of expected and unexpected outcomes as a function of locus of goal and type of expectancy.
House, W. C., & Perney, V. H. (1974) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0036123 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Expectancy changes with skill-determined and chance-determined outcomes.
Masterson, J. H. (1973) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0034840 · Cited by 3 · see citing works

Authors: IRWIN, F. W.
Affiliations: University of Pennsylvania (US)
Corresponding author: IRWIN, FRANCIS W.
Venue: Journal of Personality
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 1953-03
Volume: 21
Issue: 3
Pages: 329-335
ISSN: 0022-3506 (ISSN-L)
1467-6494
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x
OpenAlex: W2107175898
Cited by: 281
References: 5
Citations by year: 2026: 1 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 6
FWCI: 3.50
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 19416 d)
Locations: Journal of Personality (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Psychometric Methodologies and Testing
Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Psychological Testing and Assessment
Keywords: outcome probability, outcome expectations, subjective probability
MeSH terms: Behavior, Humans, Motivation, Probability

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Stated expectations as functions of probability and desirability of outcomes

Integrity signals

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Cites

Cited by

Related

Record

About these checks