Inferences of competence from faces predict election outcomes
Abstract
We show that inferences of competence based solely on facial appearance predicted the outcomes of U.S. congressional elections better than chance (e.g., 68.8% of the Senate races in 2004) and also were linearly related to the margin of victory. These inferences were specific to competence and occurred within a 1-second exposure to the faces of the candidates. The findings suggest that rapid, unreflective trait inferences can contribute to voting choices, which are widely assumed to be based primarily on rational and deliberative considerations.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Cites
A very brief measure of the Big-Five personality domains
Gosling, S. D., Rentfrow, P. J., & Swann, W. B. (2003) · Journal of Research in Personality · doi:10.1016/s0092-6566(03)00046-1 · Cited by 8,307 · see citing works
The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion
Zaller, J. R. (1992) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511818691 · Cited by 7,785 · see citing works
(1999) · Cited by 6,104 · see citing works
A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality.
Kahneman, D. (2003) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/0003-066x.58.9.697 · Cited by 5,540 · see citing works
The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion.
Kenski, H. C., & Zaller, J. R. (1993) · Contemporary Sociology A Journal of Reviews · doi:10.2307/2074664 · Cited by 5,212 · see citing works
The distributed human neural system for face perception
Haxby, J. V., Hoffman, E. A., & Gobbini, M. I. (2000) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/s1364-6613(00)01482-0 · Cited by 4,891 · see citing works
Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996
Bartels, L. M. (2000) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.2307/2669291 · Cited by 1,207 · see citing works
Automatic and intentional brain responses during evaluation of trustworthiness of faces
Winston, J. S., Strange, B. A., O'Doherty, J., & Dolan, R. J. (2002) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn816 · Cited by 993 · see citing works
Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice
Quattrone, G. A., & Tversky, A. (1988) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/1962487 · Cited by 883 · see citing works
Toward a histology of social behavior: Judgmental accuracy from thin slices of the behavioral stream
Ambady, N., Bernieri, F. J., & Richeson, J. A. (2000) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(00)80006-4 · Cited by 716 · see citing works
THE WARM‐COLD VARIABLE IN FIRST IMPRESSIONS OF PERSONS
KELLEY, H. H. (1950) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1950.tb01260.x · Cited by 509 · see citing works
Reading faces: window to the soul?
(1997) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.35-2419 · Cited by 492 · see citing works
Facing faces: Studies on the cognitive aspects of physiognomy.
Hassin, R. R., & Yaacov Trope, B. (2000) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.78.5.837 · Cited by 439 · see citing works
Facing faces: Studies on the cognitive aspects of physiognomy.
Hassin, R. R., & Trope, Y. (2000) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.78.5.837 · Cited by 325 · see citing works
The efficiency of binding spontaneous trait inferences to actors’ faces
Todorov, A. T., & Uleman, J. S. (2003) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0022-1031(03)00059-3 · Cited by 292 · see citing works
Self-citationLooking Smart and Looking Good: Facial Cues to Intelligence and their Origins
Zebrowitz, L. A., Hall, J. A., Murphy, N. A., & Rhodes, G. (2002) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167202282009 · Cited by 276 · see citing works
Kinder, D. R., Peters, M. D., Abelson, R. P., & Fiske, S. T. (1980) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/bf00990172 · Cited by 276 · see citing works
One Good Term Deserves Another: The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections
Cover, A. D. (1977) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.2307/2110580 · Cited by 268 · see citing works
Facial Dominance of West Point Cadets as a Predictor of Later Military Rank
Mueller, U., & Mazur, A. (1996) · Social Forces · doi:10.1093/sf/74.3.823 · Cited by 224 · see citing works
Person Perception Comes of Age: The Salience and Significance of Age in Social Judgments
Montepare, J. M., & Zebrowitz, L. A. (1998) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60383-4 · Cited by 187 · see citing works
Subjective reports and process dissociation: Fluency, knowing, and feeling
Kelley, C. M., & Jacoby, L. L. (1998) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/s0001-6918(97)00039-5 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Facial Dominance of West Point Cadets as a Predictor of Later Military Rank
Mueller, U. O., & Mazur, A. (1996) · Social Forces · doi:10.2307/2580383 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Budesheim, T. L., & DePaola, S. J. (1994) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167294204001 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Presidential Physiognomies: Altered Images, Altered Perceptions
Keating, C. F., Randall, D. W., & Kendrick, T. (1999) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/0162-895x.00158 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Person perception and real-life electoral behaviour
Martin, D. S. (1978) · Australian Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1080/00049537808256378 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Ellis, P. D. (2010) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511761676 · Cited by 2,461 · see citing works
First Impressions: Making Up Your Mind After a 100-Ms Exposure to a Face
Willis, J., & Todorov, A. (2006) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01750.x · Cited by 2,300 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Social Brain: Neural Basis of Social Knowledge
Adolphs, R. (2009) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.60.110707.163514 · Cited by 1,827 · see citing works
8 Social Hierarchy: The Self‐Reinforcing Nature of Power and Status
Magee, J. C., & Galinsky, A. D. (2008) · Academy of Management Annals · doi:10.5465/19416520802211628 · Cited by 2,385 · see citing works
Social evaluation by preverbal infants
Hamlin, J. K., Wynn, K., & Bloom, P. (2007) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06288 · Cited by 1,566 · see citing works
Wang, Y., & Kosinski, M. (2018) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/pspa0000098 · Cited by 766 · see citing works
Understanding evaluation of faces on social dimensions
Todorov, A., Said, C. P., Engell, A. D., & Oosterhof, N. N. (2008) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2008.10.001 · Cited by 706 · see citing works
Self-citationA map for social navigation in the human brain
Tavares, R. M., Mendelsohn, A., Grossman, Y., Williams, C. H., Shapiro, M., Trope, Y., & Schiller, D. (2015) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2015.06.011 · Cited by 505 · see citing works
Evaluating face trustworthiness: a model based approach
Todorov, A., Baron, S. G., & Oosterhof, N. N. (2008) · Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience · doi:10.1093/scan/nsn009 · Cited by 426 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Human Face as a Dynamic Tool for Social Communication
Jack, R. E., & Schyns, P. G. (2015) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2015.05.052 · Cited by 405 · see citing works
Facial dynamics as indicators of trustworthiness and cooperative behavior.
Krumhuber, E., Manstead, A. S. R., Cosker, D., Marshall, D., Rosin, P. L., & Kappas, A. (2007) · Emotion · doi:10.1037/1528-3542.7.4.730 · Cited by 407 · see citing works
Charisma: An ill-defined and ill-measured gift
Antonakis, J., Bastardoz, N., Jacquart, P., & Shamir, B. (2016) · Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior · doi:10.1146/annurev-orgpsych-041015-062305 · Cited by 410 · see citing works
The Red Sneakers Effect: Inferring Status and Competence from Signals of Nonconformity
Bellezza, S., Gino, F., & Keinan, A. (2014) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1086/674870 · Cited by 346 · see citing works
Four principles of explainable artificial intelligence
Phillips, P. J., Hahn, C. A., Fontana, P. C., Yates, A. N., Greene, K., Broniatowski, D. A., & Przybocki, M. A. (2021) · doi:10.6028/nist.ir.8312 · Cited by 262 · see citing works
Validation of data-driven computational models of social perception of faces.
Todorov, A., Dotsch, R., Porter, J. M., Oosterhof, N. N., & Falvello, V. B. (2013) · Emotion · doi:10.1037/a0032335 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
Self-citationA socio-relational framework of sex differences in the expression of emotion
Vigil, J. M. (2009) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x09991075 · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Political partisanship influences perception of biracial candidates' skin tone
Caruso, E. M., Mead, N. L., & Balcetis, E. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0905362106 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
Four Principles of Explainable Artificial Intelligence
Phillips, P. J., Hahn, C. A., Fontana, P. C., Broniatowski, D. A., & Przybocki, M. A. (2020) · doi:10.6028/nist.ir.8312-draft · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Perceiving the World Through Group-Colored Glasses: A Perceptual Model of Intergroup Relations
Xiao, Y. J., Coppin, G., & Van Bavel, J. J. (2016) · Psychological Inquiry · doi:10.1080/1047840x.2016.1199221 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
A new perspective on the social functions of emotions: Gratitude and the witnessing effect.
Algoe, S. B., Dwyer, P. C., Younge, A., & Oveis, C. (2020) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/pspi0000202 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
We look like our names: the manifestation of name stereotypes in facial appearance
Zwebner, Y., Sellier, A.-L., Rosenfeld, N., Goldenberg, J., & Mayo, R. (2017) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/pspa0000076 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Attention Alters Perceived Attractiveness
Störmer, V. S., & Alvarez, G. A. (2016) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797616630964 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Cooper, J. C., Dunne, S., Furey, T., & O'Doherty, J. P. (2012) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.2558-12.2012 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Trait Associations for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in News Media: A Computational Analysis
Bhatia, S., Goodwin, G. P., & Walasek, L. (2018) · Social Psychological and Personality Science · doi:10.1177/1948550617751584 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Automating Automaticity: How the Context of Human Choice Affects the Extent of Algorithmic Bias
Agan, A., Davenport, D., Ludwig, J., & Mullainathan, S. (2023) · doi:10.3386/w30981 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Impressive Words: Linguistic Predictors of Public Approval of the U.S. Congress
Decter-Frain, A., & Frimer, J. A. (2016) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00240 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Masters of suspicion: A Bayesian decision model of motivated political reasoning
Rigoli, F. (2021) · Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour · doi:10.1111/jtsb.12274 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
- Authors
- Todorov, A., Mandisodza, A. N., Goren, A., & Hall, C. C.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Todorov, Alexander
- Mandisodza, Anesu N.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2005-06-10
- Volume
- 308
- Issue
- 5728
- Pages
- 1623-1626
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W1991107651
- Cited by
- 1,508
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 59 · 2025: 71 · 2024: 82 · 2023: 97 · 2022: 88 · 2021: 101 · 2020: 107 · 2019: 97 · 2018: 112 · 2017: 99 · 2016: 79 · 2015: 74 · 2014: 81 · 2013: 57 · 2012: 64
- FWCI
- 32.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Evolutionary Psychology and Human Behavior
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Face Recognition and Perception
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Keywords
- facial appearance, perceived competence, candidate evaluation, voting behavior, face perception, trait inference, margin of victory, 2004 elections
- MeSH terms
- Aging, Character, Decision Making, Face, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Intelligence, Judgment, Leadership, Male, Politics, Social Perception, Stereotyping, United States, Mental Competency, Federal Government, Trust
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review