The DOI matches its Crossref record; 25 of the 25 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 5 of the 21 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers
Open accessAbstract
Mortality rates level off at extreme age: The demography of human longevity is a contentious topic. On the basis of high-quality data from Italians aged 105 and older, Barbi et al. show that mortality is constant at extreme ages but at levels that decline somewhat across cohorts. Human death rates increase exponentially up to about age 80, then decelerate, and plateau after age 105. Science , this issue p. 1459
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Using validated ISTAT data on all Italian inhabitants aged 105+ from 2009–2015, the authors find essentially level mortality hazards beyond age 105. The results provide strong evidence for an extreme-age mortality plateau in humans.
Key findings
- Across 3,836 carefully documented cases (463 males) in 15 birth cohorts (1896–1910), hazard curves are essentially constant beyond age 105.
- The Gompertz slope estimate is \(b = 0.013\) (SE 0.017), not statistically significant; a likelihood ratio test fails to reject the constant-hazard null at a level of 0.44, in contrast to a slope as large as 0.103 at ages 65–80.
- For the baseline 1904 cohort, the estimated plateau is \(a = 0.645\), corresponding to an annual probability of dying of 0.475 and an expectation of further life of 1.55 years.
- The cohort effect is \(\beta_1 = -0.020\) (SE 0.008), statistically significant; the male effect \(\beta_2 = 0.033\) is plausible but not statistically significant.
Methods
- Data: ISTAT-collected and validated individual survival trajectories of all Italian inhabitants aged 105 and over from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2015; 3,836 cases, 463 males, 15 birth cohorts (1896–1910), with 2,883 observed deaths and 953 right-censored individuals.
- Validation: municipality contacts, death certificates, survival certificates, and birth certificates for supercentenarians; age misreporting is believed minimal and the data are free of age ascertainment bias.
- Analysis: maximum likelihood for truncated and censored survival data under a hazard model \(a\exp(bx)\exp(\beta_1 C + \beta_2 M)\), where \(C\) is cohort birth year minus 1904 and \(M\) indicates male; the null model constrains \(b = 0\), with likelihood ratio tests and cumulative-hazard checks.
Limitations
- Stated: with 90% of person-years at risk before age 108, the ISTAT data cannot rule out alternatives such as a plateau followed later by decline, though supercentenarian estimates argue against such alternatives.
- Stated: the 463 male survivors beyond 105 are too few for the gender effect to reach statistical significance.
- Evident from the text: the analysis is based on a single nation, Italy, so generalization to other populations is not directly tested.
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Claims the paper makes
16 Own result · 10 Own interpretation · 8 Own method · 7 Sources not found · 4 No basis given · 2 Supported so far · 1 Supported · 1 Partly supported · 1 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
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In the paper
“Thus these well-estimated hazard curves share the qualitative pattern observed at extreme ages in widely differing species (8, 18)”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [8] Vaupel JW, Carey JR, Christensen K, Johnson TE, Yashin AI, Holm NV, Iachine IA, Kannisto V, Khazaeli AA, Liedo P, Longo VD, Zeng Y, Manton KG, Curtsinger JW, Biodemographic Trajectories of longevity. Science 280, 855– 860 (1998). 9599158 source
- Partly supportedcites [18] Vaupel JW, Biodemography of human aging. Nature 464, 536– 542 (2010). 20336136 PMC4010874 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
In “Delay not deceleration,” the paper reports a constant annual probability of death at validated human ages 110–114. Its discussion of other species describes varied age-related mortality patterns, and its References list a study of slowing mortality in medflies; it does not establish that well-estimated hazard curves share the same extreme-age pattern across widely differing species. (LLM, conf=0.82)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“The fixed-frailty proportional hazard model of Vaupel, Stallard, and Manton (19) (with precursor 20) implies approach to plateaus (5, 8, 18)”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [19] Vaupel JW, Manton KG, Stallard E, The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality. Demography 16, 439– 454 (1979). 510638 source
- Not matchedcites [5] Thatcher AR, Kannisto V, Vaupel JW, The force of mortality at ages 80 to 120. (Odense University Press, 1998).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [8] Vaupel JW, Carey JR, Christensen K, Johnson TE, Yashin AI, Holm NV, Iachine IA, Kannisto V, Khazaeli AA, Liedo P, Longo VD, Zeng Y, Manton KG, Curtsinger JW, Biodemographic Trajectories of longevity. Science 280, 855– 860 (1998). 9599158 source
- Could not verifycites [18] Vaupel JW, Biodemography of human aging. Nature 464, 536– 542 (2010). 20336136 PMC4010874 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The References section lists Vaupel, Manton, and Stallard’s work on individual frailty and separately lists work on mortality-rate deceleration, but does not say that a fixed-frailty proportional-hazard model implies an approach to plateaus. Searches for plateaus, proportional hazards, frailty, and mortality deceleration found no passage in our copy establishing that implication. (LLM, conf=0.72)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Here we estimate hazard rates from data on all Italian inhabitants aged over 105 between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896–1910), 3836 carefully documented cases.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plainn = 3,836- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find level hazard curves, essentially constant beyond age 105.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“Here we report a curve of death rates by age for recent cohorts of Italians, a curve essentially level over 105.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“Our best-estimated trajectory for the 1904 cohort from our modeling is the flat curve, the plateau, shown in Fig. 1b.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plainn = 3,836- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increases in samples from row to row bear testimony to improvements in survival from cohort to cohort at ages before 105”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plaindirectn = 3,836- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“and an expectation of further life of 1/0.645 = 1.55 years.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“A likelihood ratio test fails to reject the constant-hazard null model at a level as generous as 0.44.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For the baseline cohort born in 1904, the estimated level of the plateau is a = 0.645.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Our estimates based on all ISTAT cohorts together produce excellent fits for single cohorts.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It corresponds to an annual probability of dying of 1 — exp(−0.645) = 0.475”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Country-specific estimates were not feasible because individual countries do not provide enough observations to limit sampling variation.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“In conjunction with the IDL extension, the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) has recently collected and carefully validated the individual survival trajectories of all the Italian inhabitants aged 105 and over in the period from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2015, the data for the present study.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The estimates are free from artifacts of aggregation limiting earlier studies”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plainn = 3,836- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“For this result, data on supercentenarians had to be pooled from eleven countries to arrive at adequate sample sizes.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [12] Gampe J, Human mortality beyond age 110 in Supercentenarians, Meier H, Gampe J, Jeune B, Robine JM, Vaupel JW, Eds. (Springer, 2010), pp. 219– 230.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and provide the best evidence so far for the existence of extreme-age mortality plateaus in humans.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
boostedn = 3,836- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Thanks to this database, estimates of mortality after age 110 could be obtained (12).”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [12] Gampe J, Human mortality beyond age 110 in Supercentenarians, Meier H, Gampe J, Jeune B, Robine JM, Vaupel JW, Eds. (Springer, 2010), pp. 219– 230.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Within the limits of precision, supercentenarian hazards showed no improvement over time.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Here, to the contrary, we show a clean case where the plateau is real.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“First, individual trajectories provide information on survival in continuous time, therefore avoiding possibly misleading patterns of death rates that are computed on pre-specified age intervals and are often obtained by aggregating heterogeneous birth cohorts.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“For several reasons, these data allow estimation of mortality at extreme ages with an accuracy and precision that were not possible before.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“and that a limit, if any, has not been reached.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“but supercentenarian estimates argue against such alternatives.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [12] Gampe J, Human mortality beyond age 110 in Supercentenarians, Meier H, Gampe J, Jeune B, Robine JM, Vaupel JW, Eds. (Springer, 2010), pp. 219– 230.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The 463 male survivors beyond 105 are too few for the gender effect to come out statistically significant”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even with these high-quality data, separating out cohorts and ages leave too much uncertainty to tell whether hazards continue upward, level out, or decrease beyond 105.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“With 90% of person-years at risk coming before age 108, the ISTAT data cannot rule out alternatives like a plateau followed somewhat later by decline”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“This outcome is in keeping with the probability estimated elsewhere for supercentenarians (12).”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [12] Gampe J, Human mortality beyond age 110 in Supercentenarians, Meier H, Gampe J, Jeune B, Robine JM, Vaupel JW, Eds. (Springer, 2010), pp. 219– 230.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and lead us to expect the downward cohort trend in hazards beyond 105 in our data to be described below.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plaindirectn = 3,836- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An important structural contributor to deceleration must be the impact of selective survival in heterogeneous populations.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Probably not a substantial claim. 8
- It may state two separate claims as one. 15
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“and elegant Gamma-Gompertz distributions for deaths arise naturally in the framework (21–24).”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [21] Finkelstein MS, Esaulova V, Asymptotic behavior of a general class of mixture failure rates. Adv. Appl. Prob. 38, 244– 262 (2006). source
The Introduction uses human mortality as an example, combining a Gompertz baseline mortality rate with gamma frailty. Section 4.1 then derives the resulting mixture failure rate for a Gompertz baseline, supporting the claim that a Gamma-Gompertz mortality distribution arises within the paper’s framework. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [22] Steinsaltz DR, Wachter KW, Understanding mortality rate deceleration and heterogeneity. Math. Pop. Studies 13, 19– 37 (2006). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [23] Missov TI, Finkelstein MS, Admissible mixing distributions for a general class of mixture survival models with known asymptotics. Theor. Pop. Bio. 80, 64– 70 (2011). 21600234 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [24] Missov TI, Vaupel JW, Mortality implications of mortality plateaus. SIAM Review 57, 61– 70 (2015). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Our results contribute to a recently rekindled debate (15–17) about the existence of a fixed maximum lifespan for humans, underwriting doubt that any limit is as yet in view.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [15] Dong X, Milholland B, Vijg J, Evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Nature 538, 257– 259 (2016). 27706136 PMC11673931 source
The citation is attached to the debate about whether humans have a fixed maximum lifespan. The source discusses arguments on both sides and concludes that its data strongly suggest a natural limit (passages 1–3, section labelled Abstract). The doubt that a limit is yet in view is framed as the citing authors’ conclusion from their own results, not as this source’s finding. (LLM, conf=0.91)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [16] Lenart A, Vaupel JW, Questionable evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Nature 546, E13– E14 (2017). 28658239 source
- Not checked yetcites [17] Rootzn H, Zholud D, Human life is unlimited but short. Extremes 20, 713– 728 (2017).
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Evolutionary theories of senescence including the mutation accumulation theory and age-dependent effects of genetic load (25) also offer promising ingredients toward a joint explanation of both the phases of exponential increase and extreme age plateaus.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [25] Wachter KW, Steinsaltz DR, Evans SH, Evolutionary Shaping of Demographic Schedules PNAS 111(s3), 10846– 10853 (2014). 25024186 PMC4113925 source
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Under the alternative hypothesis, the Gompertz slope parameter estimate b = 0.013 with standard error 0.017, is not statistically significant at the 5% level and is practically indistinguishable from zero.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this setting with clean data from a single nation and straightforward estimation, death rates which increase exponentially up to about age 80 do, as we report here, decelerate thereafter and reach or closely approach a plateau after age 105.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Death during the follow-up was observed in 2883 cases and, as a result, 953 individuals are right-censored, i.e., still alive at the end of the study.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plainn = 2,883- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This near- negligible slope stands in striking contrast to the slope as large as 0.103 at younger ages (65–80) in Fig. 1b, which is paired with a log hazard at 65 of log(0.015).”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Less than 4% of these individuals were born abroad.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plainn = 3,836- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The present study based on ISTAT data includes 3836 cases, 463 of whom are males, across 15 birth cohorts (1896 – 1910).”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plainn = 3,836- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A straight-line fit based on ages 65 to 80, where the Gompertz model does appear to hold, fails at later ages and far overshoots our estimated plateau beyond age 105.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Fig. 2 shows heartening absence of curvature for Italian women born in 1904, as do plots for other cohorts not included here.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The estimated cohort effect β1 = −0.020 with standard error 0.008, though small, is in line with expectations, statistically significant, and important (13).”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [13] Materials and methods are available as supplementary materials.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Some 472 individuals born before 31 December 1903 (birth cohorts 1896 – 1903) enter the study at ages greater than exactly 105 and, as such, provide left-truncated survival trajectories.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plainn = 472- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The hazard function, the usual continuous-age version of mortality rates as a function of age, turned out to appear constant at least up to age 114, after which data become too sparse for reliable statements.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [12] Gampe J, Human mortality beyond age 110 in Supercentenarians, Meier H, Gampe J, Jeune B, Robine JM, Vaupel JW, Eds. (Springer, 2010), pp. 219– 230.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The International Database on Longevity (IDL) at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research is the result of this decade-long effort (www.supercentenarians.org), updated through 2010.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites www.supercentenarians.org
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hazards that are constant imply cumulative hazards that are linearly increasing.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The project includes all those 105 and older in the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2015, so that the data are also free of age ascertainment bias.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The increasing number of exceptionally long-lived people in Table 1 and the fact that their mortality beyond 105 is seen to be declining across cohorts lowering the mortality plateau or postponing the age when it appears strongly suggest that longevity is continuing to increase over time”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In these data, age misreporting is believed to be minimal.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, the validation procedure has been developed specifically for this population segment and meets the highest validation criteria provided by the IDL protocol.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“regularities calling for common structural and evolutionary explanations.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“though the estimate β2 = 0.033 is plausible.”
§ The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
Accurate mortality data at advanced ages are difficult to obtain.
“Accurate mortality data at advanced ages are difficult to obtain.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In vital statistics, the very old are often aggregated in one age-group.
“In vital statistics, the very old are often aggregated in one age-group.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Even in countries with reliable vital registration, age exaggeration is common among the oldest-old.
“Even in countries with reliable vital registration, age exaggeration is common among the oldest-old.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“As a frame of reference, death rates at ages more than 105 years now are at 50 per cent or higher (17,18).”
From Inconvenient Truths About Human Longevity (2019) · cites this paper as [17]
Citations
Cites
Gompertz, B. (1825) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London · doi:10.1098/rstl.1825.0026 · Cited by 3,816
The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality
Vaupel, J. W., Manton, K. G., & Stallard, E. (1979) · Demography · doi:10.2307/2061224 · Cited by 1,932
Self-citationVaupel, J. W. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08984 · Cited by 863
Self-citationBiodemographic Trajectories of Longevity
Vaupel, J. W., Carey, J. R., Christensen, K., Johnson, T. E., Yashin, A. I., Holm, N. V., Iachine, I. A., Kannisto, V., Khazaeli, A. A., Liedo, P., et al. (1998) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.280.5365.855 · Cited by 803
Self-citationKirkwood, T. B. L. (2015) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2014.0379 · Cited by 625
SIMPLE METHOD TO CALCULATE THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF A STANDARDIZED MORTALITY RATIO (SMR)
Ulm, K. (1990) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115507 · Cited by 559
Evidence for a limit to human lifespan
Dong, X., Milholland, B., & Vijg, J. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature19793 · Cited by 495
Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages
Horiuchi, S., & Wilmoth, J. R. (1998) · Demography · doi:10.2307/3004009 · Cited by 293
Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages
Gavrilov, L. A., & Gavrilova, N. S. (2011) · North American Actuarial Journal · doi:10.1080/10920277.2011.10597629 · Cited by 156
Horiuchi, S., & Coale, A. J. (1990) · Mathematical Population Studies · doi:10.1080/08898489009525312 · Cited by 113
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- V. Kannisto Development of Oldest-Old Mortality 1950-1990: Evidence from 28 Developed Countries (Odense Univ. Press 1994).
- A. R. Thatcher V. Kannisto J. W. Vaupel The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120 (Odense Univ. Press 1998).
- L. A. Gavrilov N. S. Gavrilova V. N. Krutko >“Mortality of supercentenarians: Does it grow with age?”in 2017 Living to 100 Monograph T. F. Harris Ed. (Society of Actuaries 2017) pp. 1–24.
- R. E. Beard >“Notes on some mathematical mortality models” in The Lifespan of Animals G. E. W. Wolstenholme M. O’Connor Eds. (Little Brown 1959) pp. 802–811.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Belsky, D. W., Caspi, A., Arseneault, L., Baccarelli, A., Corcoran, D. L., Gao, X., Hannon, E., Harrington, H. L., Rasmussen, L. J., Houts, R., et al. (2020) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.54870 · Cited by 652
Horizons in the evolution of aging
Flatt, T., & Partridge, L. (2018) · BMC Biology · doi:10.1186/s12915-018-0562-z · Cited by 273
The Genetics of Aging: A Vertebrate Perspective
Singh, P. P., Demmitt, B. A., Nath, R. D., & Brunet, A. (2019) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2019.02.038 · Cited by 259
Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity
Vaupel, J. W., Villavicencio, F., & Bergeron-Boucher, M.-P. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2019536118 · Cited by 253
Self-citationA Survey on Multimodal Data-Driven Smart Healthcare Systems: Approaches and Applications
Cai, Q., Wang, H. H., Li, Z., & Liu, X. (2019) · IEEE Access · doi:10.1109/access.2019.2941419 · Cited by 172
Metadata
- Authors
- Barbi, E., Lagona, F., Marsili, M., Vaupel, J. W., & Wachter, K. W.
- Affiliations
- Sapienza University of Rome (IT)
- Roma Tre University (IT)
- Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (IT)
- Duke University (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Barbi, Elisabetta
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2018-06-29
- Volume
- 360
- Issue
- 6396
- Pages
- 1459-1461
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- PMC
- PMC6457902
- OpenAlex
- W2811063823
- Cited by
- 299
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 28 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 81 · 2020: 43 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 18
- FWCI
- 70.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Iris (Roma Tre University) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. National Institute on Aging (5P30AG012839)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Aging › Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Aging and Gerontology Research
- Keywords
- mortality plateau, hazard function, longevity, centenarians, oldest old
- MeSH terms
- Aged, 80 and over, Demography, Female, Humans, Italy, Longevity, Male, Mortality, Proportional Hazards Models
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-08, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-08 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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