Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei Province
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Abstract
Backtracking a pandemic: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may have had a history of abortive human infections before a variant established a productive enough infection to create a transmission chain with pandemic potential. Therefore, the Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event. Pekar et al. used genome data collected from the early cases of the COVID-19 pandemic combined with molecular clock inference and epidemiological simulation to estimate when the most successful variant gained a foothold in humans. This analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November of 2019 in Hubei Province, China, with a likely short interval before epidemic transmission was initiated. Science , this issue p. 412
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Uncertainty Modeling of a Modified SEIR Epidemic Model for COVID-19
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Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics
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Prioritizing the Continuing Global Challenges to Emerging and Reemerging Viral Infections
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A computationally tractable birth-death model that combines phylogenetic and epidemiological data
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Critical Role of the Subways in the Initial Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City
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Epidemiological inference for emerging viruses using segregating sites
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Evolutionary trajectory of diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants at the beginning of COVID-19 outbreak
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SARS-CoV-2 Portrayed against HIV: Contrary Viral Strategies in Similar Disguise
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Dynamics of natural selection preceding human viral epidemics and pandemics
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Self-citationCOVID-19 and preventive strategy.
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Optimal timing and effectiveness of COVID-19 outbreak responses in China: a modelling study
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Random-Effects Substitution Models for Phylogenetics via Scalable Gradient Approximations
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Self-citationCovid-19: Early Cases and Disease Spread
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Predicting health crises from early warning signs in patient medical records
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Integrating Fréchet distance and AI reveals the evolutionary trajectory and origin of SARS‐CoV‐2
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Challenges at the host-arthropod-coronavirus interface and COVID-19: a One Health approach
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A Critical Reexamination of Recovered SARS-CoV-2 Sequencing Data
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Alpha and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Adaptation in an Upper Respiratory Tract Model
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The species coalescent indicates possible bat and pangolin origins of the COVID-19 pandemic
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Using early detection data to estimate the date of emergence of an epidemic outbreak
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The stochastic world of emerging viruses
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WHO abandons plans for crucial second phase of COVID-origins investigation
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Threat Net: A Metagenomic Surveillance Network for Biothreat Detection and Early Warning
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Unrecognized introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the US state of Georgia shaped the early epidemic
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The impact of COVID-19 on antibiotic resistance and clinical outcomes among critically ill patients
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COVID-19: neurological sequelae
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The continuing search for the origins of SARS-CoV-2
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Identifiability of Phylogenetic Level-2 Networks under the Jukes-Cantor ModelPreprint
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Identification of the first COVID-19 infections in the US using a retrospective analysis (REMEDID)
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Immunological challenges of the “new” infections: corona viruses
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Ecological and Evolutionary Insights About Emerging Infectious Diseases from the COVID-19 Pandemic
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Country Image and Consumer Choice: The Case of the Beer Market during the COVID‐19 Pandemic*
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An End of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Sight?
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Rocchigiani, A. M., Luca Ferretti, A., Ledda, A., Nardo, A. D., Floris, M., Bonelli, P., Loi, F., Idda, M. L., Angioi, P. P., Zinellu, S., et al. (2023) · Viruses · doi:10.3390/v15020277 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
- Authors
- Pekar, J., Worobey, M., Moshiri, N., Scheffler, K., & Wertheim, J. O.
- Affiliations
- University of California San Diego (US)
- University of Arizona (US)
- Illumina (United States) (US)
- Corresponding author
- Worobey, Michael
- Wertheim, Joel O.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2021-04-23
- Volume
- 372
- Issue
- 6540
- Pages
- 412-417
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- PMC
- PMC8139421
- OpenAlex
- W3137008901
- Cited by
- 156
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 39 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 10.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (2028040)
- David and Lucile Packard Foundation
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (AI135992, AI136056)
- U.S. National Library of Medicine (T15LM011271)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 pandemic, emergence timing, index case, Hubei Province, coalescent analysis, molecular clock, zoonotic transmission, zoonotic disease surveillance, pandemic containment
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Viral Zoonoses, Animals, China, Computer Simulation, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Phylogeny, Retrospective Studies, Genome, Viral, Evolution, Molecular, Genetic Fitness, Pandemics
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