Cited by 1,160Consumer Attitudes and Food LabelingNutritional Studies and DietGlobal Public Health Policies and Epidemiology

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 110 of the 111 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 10 of the 99 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Ultra-processed food exposure and adverse health outcomes: umbrella review of epidemiological meta-analyses

Open access

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the existing meta-analytic evidence of associations between exposure to ultra-processed foods, as defined by the Nova food classification system, and adverse health outcomes. Design: Systematic umbrella review of existing meta-analyses. Data sources: MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, as well as manual searches of reference lists from 2009 to June 2023. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of cohort, case-control, and/or cross sectional study designs. To evaluate the credibility of evidence, pre-specified evidence classification criteria were applied, graded as convincing (“class I”), highly suggestive (“class II”), suggestive (“class III”), weak (“class IV”), or no evidence (“class V”). The quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations) framework, categorised as “high,” “moderate,” “low,” or “very low” quality. Results: The search identified 45 unique pooled analyses, including 13 dose-response associations and 32 non-dose-response associations (n=9 888 373). Overall, direct associations were found between exposure to ultra-processed foods and 32 (71%) health parameters spanning mortality, cancer, and mental, respiratory, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and metabolic health outcomes. Based on the pre-specified evidence classification criteria, convincing evidence (class I) supported direct associations between greater ultra-processed food exposure and higher risks of incident cardiovascular disease related mortality (risk ratio 1.50, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 1.63; GRADE=very low) and type 2 diabetes (dose-response risk ratio 1.12, 1.11 to 1.13; moderate), as well as higher risks of prevalent anxiety outcomes (odds ratio 1.48, 1.37 to 1.59; low) and combined common mental disorder outcomes (odds ratio 1.53, 1.43 to 1.63; low). Highly suggestive (class II) evidence indicated that greater exposure to ultra-processed foods was directly associated with higher risks of incident all cause mortality (risk ratio 1.21, 1.15 to 1.27; low), heart disease related mortality (hazard ratio 1.66, 1.51 to 1.84; low), type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 1.40, 1.23 to 1.59; very low), and depressive outcomes (hazard ratio 1.22, 1.16 to 1.28; low), together with higher risks of prevalent adverse sleep related outcomes (odds ratio 1.41, 1.24 to 1.61; low), wheezing (risk ratio 1.40, 1.27 to 1.55; low), and obesity (odds ratio 1.55, 1.36 to 1.77; low). Of the remaining 34 pooled analyses, 21 were graded as suggestive or weak strength (class III-IV) and 13 were graded as no evidence (class V). Overall, using the GRADE framework, 22 pooled analyses were rated as low quality, with 19 rated as very low quality and four rated as moderate quality. Conclusions: Greater exposure to ultra-processed food was associated with a higher risk of adverse health outcomes, especially cardiometabolic, common mental disorder, and mortality outcomes. These findings provide a rationale to develop and evaluate the effectiveness of using population based and public health measures to target and reduce dietary exposure to ultra-processed foods for improved human health. They also inform and provide support for urgent mechanistic research. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD42023412732.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This umbrella review of 45 pooled analyses (n=9,888,373) found that greater ultra-processed food exposure was directly associated with 32 (71%) adverse health outcomes, with convincing evidence for cardiovascular disease mortality, type 2 diabetes, anxiety, and combined common mental disorders. The authors conclude that the findings support urgent mechanistic research and population-level public health measures to reduce ultra-processed food exposure.

Key findings

  • Across 45 unique pooled analyses, 32 (71%) showed direct associations between greater ultra-processed food exposure and higher risk of adverse health outcomes at P≤0.05; 11 (34%) remained significant at P<1×10−6.
  • Convincing evidence (class I) supported direct associations with incident cardiovascular disease related mortality (risk ratio 1.50, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.63; GRADE=very low), type 2 diabetes dose-response (risk ratio 1.12, 1.11 to 1.13; moderate), prevalent anxiety outcomes (odds ratio 1.48, 1.37 to 1.59; low), and combined common mental disorder outcomes (odds ratio 1.53, 1.43 to 1.63; low).
  • Highly suggestive evidence (class II) supported direct associations with incident all cause mortality (risk ratio 1.21, 1.15 to 1.27; low), heart disease related mortality (hazard ratio 1.66, 1.51 to 1.84; low), type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 1.40, 1.23 to 1.59; very low), depressive outcomes (hazard ratio 1.22, 1.16 to 1.28; low), adverse sleep related outcomes (odds ratio 1.41, 1.24 to 1.61; low), wheezing (risk ratio 1.40, 1.27 to 1.55; low), and obesity (odds ratio 1.55, 1.36 to 1.77; low).
  • Using GRADE, 22 pooled analyses were rated low quality, 19 very low quality, and four moderate quality.

Methods

  • Systematic umbrella review of meta-analyses, reported per PRISMA, searching MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Embase, and Cochrane from 2009 to June 2023; 14 meta-analysis studies with 45 distinct pooled analyses were included.
  • Eligible meta-analysis studies pooled observational epidemiological designs (prospective cohort, case-control, and/or cross sectional) examining dietary ultra-processed food exposure per the Nova classification against any adverse health endpoint.
  • Random-effects reanalysis recalculated pooled effect estimates, P values, I2 heterogeneity, 95% prediction intervals, excess significance bias, small study effects, and largest study significance; credibility was graded class I–V and quality assessed with GRADE and AMSTAR 2.

Limitations

  • The paper states that umbrella reviews provide a high-level overview and did not consider specific confounder or mediator adjustments or sensitivity analyses; it also notes inevitable measurement bias from different dietary assessment methods, possible residual confounding, and possible heterogeneity across ultra-processed food subgroups/subcategories.
  • The paper states that further randomised controlled trials are needed for causality, though only short-term trials on intermediate outcomes would be feasible and long-term trials on hard disease endpoints would not be ethical.
  • Evident from the text: most pooled analyses were rated low or very low quality by GRADE (22 low, 19 very low, four moderate); moderate to high heterogeneity was found in 13 (29%) and eight (18%) of 45 pooled analyses, respectively; and many pooled analyses were based on few original research articles (average four, range two to nine).

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Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1136/bmj-2023-077310

Cites

110 of 110 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

10 of 99 cited sources checked · 6 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

Show all 96 claims

  • Probably not a substantial claim. 21
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 32
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
50 of 50
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    No comprehensive umbrella review has offered a broad overview and assessment of the existing meta-analytic evidence.

    “Although several meta-analyses have made efforts to consolidate the many individual original research articles that have investigated the associations between exposure to ultra-processed foods and the risk of adverse health outcomes in the past decade,17 18 no comprehensive umbrella review has offered a broad overview and assessment of the existing meta-analytic evidence.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    No comprehensive umbrella review has been conducted to provide a broad perspective and evaluate the meta-analytic evidence in this area.

    “However, no comprehensive umbrella review has been conducted to provide a broad perspective and evaluate the meta-analytic evidence in this area”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Multiple meta-analyses have aimed to consolidate original epidemiological research investigating associations between ultra-processed food and adverse health outcomes.

    “Multiple meta-analyses have aimed to consolidate original epidemiological research investigating associations between ultra-processed food and adverse health outcomes”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Reducing dietary exposure to ultra-processed foods will improve human health.

    “aimed at targeting and reducing dietary exposure to ultra-processed foods for improved human health.”
4 of 4

Claims other papers make about this one

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Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Depressive-outcome effect measure changes between sections

    Minor

    The abstract reports the 1.22 estimate for depressive outcomes as a hazard ratio, whereas the results report the same estimate and confidence interval as an odds ratio.

1 of 1

Citations

Cites

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1 of the 111 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. Deeks JJ Higgins JPT Altman DG the Cochrane Statistical Methods Group . Chapter 10: Analysing data and undertaking meta-analyses. In: Higgins JPT Thomas J Chandler J , , eds. Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions version 6.4 (updated August 2023). Cochrane, 2023

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Metadata

Authors
Lane, M. M., Gamage, E., Du, S., Ashtree, D. N., McGuinness, A. J., Gauci, S., Baker, P., Lawrence, M., Rebholz, C. M., Srour, B., Touvier, M., Jacka, F. N., O’Neil, A., Segasby, T., & Marx, W.
Affiliations
  • Barwon Health (AU)
  • Johns Hopkins University (US)
  • The University of Sydney (AU)
  • Deakin University (AU)
  • Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers (FR)
  • Dublin City University (IE)
Corresponding author
Lane, Melissa M
Venue
BMJ
Publisher
BMJ
Published
2024-02-28
Volume
384
Pages
e077310
ISSN
1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W4392600894
Cited by
1,153
References
111
Citations by year
2026: 496 · 2025: 459 · 2024: 197
FWCI
78.19
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • BMJ (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Preprints.org (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Bloomberg Philanthropies
  • Multiple Sclerosis Australia
  • Deakin University
  • Monash University
  • Dasman Diabetes Institute
  • Barwon Health Foundation
  • MTPConnect
  • Medical Research Council
  • Australian Research Council (DP190101323, FT220100690)
  • National Health and Medical Research Council (1194982, 2008971, 1182301, 2009295)
  • Medical Research Future Fund
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Consumer Attitudes and Food Labeling
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Nutritional Studies and Diet
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
Keywords
ultra-processed foods, NOVA classification, diet and health outcomes, cardiovascular mortality, type 2 diabetes, all-cause mortality, cancer risk, anxiety, common mental disorders, respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, metabolic disorders, dose-response relationship, classification of evidence, quality of evidence, dietary exposure assessment
MeSH terms
Food, Processed, Cardiovascular Diseases, Humans, Meta-Analysis as Topic

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