The DOI matches its Crossref record; 120 of the 120 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 10 of the 75 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
A review of the effects of uncertainty in public science communication
Open accessAbstract
Uncertainty is inherent to science and science communication. However, the evidence appears mixed regarding whether portraying uncertainty in science communication has positive or negative effects. We review a diverse range of experimental literature ( k = 48; from 40 searches and 8000 retrievals), summarize the extant findings, and observe how the effects vary across four different types of communicated uncertainty ( deficient, technical, scientific, and consensus uncertainty). The results indicate that most findings of negative effects (such as reduced credibility and beliefs) are from experiments that operationalized uncertainty as disagreement or conflict in science ( consensus uncertainty). In this review, consensus uncertainty was never found to have positive effects. In contrast, uncertainty in the form of quantified error ranges and probabilities ( technical uncertainty) in these studies has had only positive or null effects, not negative effects. We also highlight frequent moderators of the effects of uncertainty, such as prior beliefs and worldviews.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This systematic review synthesizes 48 papers containing 68 experiments and 38,947 participants on how portrayals of uncertainty in public science communication affect audience beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. It finds that effects depend strongly on the type of uncertainty: consensus/conflict uncertainty is consistently negative, technical quantified uncertainty is positive or null, deficient uncertainty is mixed, and scientific uncertainty is rarely studied.
Key findings
- Across 48 journal articles/book chapters and 68 experiments with 38,947 total participants, uncertainty portrayals showed negative, positive, and null effects depending on how uncertainty was operationalized.
- Consensus uncertainty—expert disagreement, controversy, or conflicting evidence—was most clearly associated with negative main effects; the review found no instance of consensus uncertainty producing positive main effects.
- Technical uncertainty—quantified error ranges, probabilities, or confidence intervals—showed no negative effects and instead had positive or null effects. Deficient uncertainty had mixed effects, while scientific uncertainty had mixed but tentative effects because it was studied infrequently.
- Effects were often conditional on prior worldviews or topic opinions, trust in science/scientists, beliefs about uncertainty’s role in science, and topic. For example, expert consensus increased policy support only among people with high trust in scientists and decreased it among those with low trust; technical uncertainty lowered perceived risk relative to consensus uncertainty only among those high in deference to science.
Methods
- Systematic review of experiments that manipulated uncertainty in a public-facing science message and compared outcomes with a no-uncertainty control, measuring beliefs, attitudes, or behaviors. Excluded non-experiments, private/interpersonal communication, comprehension outcomes, multi-message designs, and visual uncertainty depictions.
- Searches used Google Scholar with 40 searches (eight uncertainty-related terms crossed with five science-communication variants), examining the first 200 results per search for 8,000 retrievals, plus reference and citation chasing. Final set: 48 journal articles/book chapters, 68 experiments, 38,947 participants.
- Studies were coded by four uncertainty types (deficient, technical, consensus, scientific), sample type, topic, main effects, and conditional effects. The first author coded manifest and latent content, consulting the second author to resolve ambiguities.
Limitations
- Stated: publication bias may affect the literature; many included studies used very small samples that may not replicate; inclusion criteria and search methods may have missed relevant experiments, including work in other fields or with different terminology; alternative uncertainty typologies or broader inclusion criteria could reveal different patterns; and heterogeneity across topics, stimuli, outcomes, samples, and years may confound conclusions.
- Evident from the text: the review is a narrative synthesis rather than a quantitative meta-analysis, so effect sizes are not pooled; coding was primarily done by the first author with consultation rather than independent double-coding, and no formal inter-coder reliability statistic is reported.
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Claims the paper makes
32 No full text of the sources · 19 Own interpretation · 16 Own result · 13 No basis given · 12 Not checked yet · 12 Own method · 6 Partly supported · 5 Sources not found · 1 Supported · 1 Supported so far · 1 Not supported · accuracy not yet measured
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“journalists sometimes do misrepresent the uncertainties of science, for example, by presenting complex or preliminary information as being more certain than it truly is (Brechman, Lee, and Cappella, 2009;Jensen, 2008;Lai, Lane, and Ruttenberg, 2009;Retzbach and Maier, 2015)”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Brechman, Lee, and Cappella, 2009 source
The Discussion reports that news articles presented research data as clear-cut facts and identifies errors in treating speculation as fact. It also notes that press releases can contribute to these distortions, but that does not undermine the claim that journalists sometimes do so. (LLM, conf=0.92)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Jensen, 2008 source
- Not matchedcites Lai, Lane, and Ruttenberg, 2009
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“varying in quality and accuracy relative to the type, source, and subject of uncertainty (Rice, Gustafson, and Hoffman, 2018)”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Rice, Gustafson, and Hoffman, 2018 source
Section 2.1.1.3 explains that the accuracy of reporting uncertainty depends on whether it portrays technical or deficient uncertainty. The Abstract and Section 6.1 assess portrayals by their sources and topics, finding that most uncertainty frames accurately concern non-scientist sources and subjects without scientific consensus. The claim is a fair paraphrase of those distinctions. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Content analyses of public-facing science communication show that scientists and journalists frequently qualify their descriptions of scientific findings with portrayals of uncertainty (e.g., Rice et al., 2018;Ruhrmann, Guenther, and Kessler, 2015)”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Rice et al., 2018 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 6.1 (page not provided) says uncertainty portrayals were frequent in mainstream climate-change print journalism. But it says the vast majority involved non-scientist sources and topics without established scientific consensus, so it does not support the broader claim that scientists and journalists frequently qualify descriptions of scientific findings. (LLM, conf=0.86)
- Not matchedcites Ruhrmann, Guenther, and Kessler, 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“communicating uncertainty has been identified by scholars as a type of framing in science communication (Gustafson and Rice, 2019;Rice et al., 2018;Ruhrmann et al., 2015;Simis, 2013).”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Gustafson and Rice, 2019 source
The Abstract explicitly calls four ways of communicating uncertainty “uncertainty frame types.” The Responses to Uncertainty Frames section also discusses research on uncertainty frames in science communication, supporting the citing sentence’s characterization. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Supportedcites Rice et al., 2018 source
Section 1.2 explicitly describes communicating climate change through frames of uncertainty and calls uncertainty-framing research a cornerstone of science and environmental communication. Section 2.1 also treats uncertainty as a type of opinion framing. (LLM, conf=0.94)
- Not matchedcites Ruhrmann et al., 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“prior research has identified these types in real-world public science communication (Antilla, 2005;Rice et al., 2018;Zehr, 2000).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Antilla, 2005 source
- Partly supportedcites Rice et al., 2018 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 5.1.1 identifies deficient and technical uncertainty in sampled climate-change news articles, supporting the claim that uncertainty types were identified in real-world public science communication. But Section 2.1 explicitly distinguishes two types of uncertainty, not four; it separately identifies three types of opinion divergence. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Zehr, 2000 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“some experiments show negative effects of portraying uncertainty on beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors in the context of science communication (see Results).”
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“In this review, consensus uncertainty was never found to have positive effects.”
- Also stated in: § Effects by Uncertainty Types · plain
“Table 2 does not contain a single instance of consensus uncertainty resulting in positive main effects.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion Summary of Results · plain
“our review found no instances of portrayals of consensus uncertainty with positive effects.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § Effects by Uncertainty Types · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“most findings of negative effects (such as reduced credibility and beliefs) are from experiments that operationalized uncertainty as disagreement or conflict in science (consensus uncertainty)”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“research has produced a seemingly inconsistent body of evidence regarding whether, when, and why portrayals of uncertainty in science have generally positive, negative, or null effects.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“We also highlight frequent moderators of the effects of uncertainty, such as prior beliefs and worldviews.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“uncertainty in the form of quantified error ranges and probabilities (technical uncertainty) in these studies has had only positive or null effects, not negative effects.”
- Also stated in: § Effects by Uncertainty Types · plain
“This review finds no instances of technical uncertainty resulting in negative effects.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § Effects by Uncertainty Types · plain
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In the paper
“Several experiments also support this perspective (see Results).”
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In the paper
“the individuals' prior beliefs and attitudes frequently moderate the effects of uncertainty”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“one particular type of uncertainty has shown consistent negative effects”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“another type of uncertainty has shown almost exclusively positive and null effects”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the evidence appears mixed regarding whether portraying uncertainty in science communication has positive or negative effects”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“In contrast, the three other uncertainty types do not have consistent negative effects.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“people with initial negative attitudes toward GMOs were more accepting of proposed GMO applications if the information contained statements about scientists' uncertainty (Frewer, Howard, and Shepherd, 1998).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Frewer, Howard, and Shepherd, 1998 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is sometimes even manifested in interactions where the effect of the uncertainty manipulation flips signs (positive or negative) depending on the level of the moderating variable.”
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Several experiments found that communicating uncertainty had significant negative effects.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table 2 also shows that the effect of the uncertainty manipulation is often dependent on individuals' level of a belief, attitude, or worldview variable (rows 2, 3, 5, 16,19,22,25,29,30,41,46).”
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Many experiments reported no significant effects of uncertainty manipulations.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most of the extant findings of negative effects of uncertainty appear in experiments that used a form of consensus uncertainty as the uncertainty manipulation.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Several experiments reported significant positive effects of communicating uncertainty.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“A news story about global warming resulted in higher perceptions of scientists' level of certainty when it stated the limitations of the study (Corbett and Durfee, 2004).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Corbett and Durfee, 2004 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“portrayals of consensus uncertainty (i.e., disagreement, controversy) among scientists or within a body of evidence is the type of uncertainty most clearly associated with negative main effects (Table 2 row numbers 10 , 11, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 24, 31, 32, 34, 35, 38, 39, 40, 44, 47).”
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“In the context of earthquake risk, trust in scientists was higher when a risk estimate included an explanation of the limitations of the estimate (Nakayachi, Johnson, and Koketsu, 2018).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Nakayachi, Johnson, and Koketsu, 2018 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This type of uncertainty is frequently employed as the manipulation in the experimental literature (see Results).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Another important limitation is that many of the included studies used very small samples, which are fertile ground for generating effects that do not replicate.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“experiments that used a form of consensus uncertainty (disagreement or controversy among experts or evidence) account for most of the extant findings of negative effects.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“There is also some indication that the effects of uncertainty vary by topic.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Rather, portrayals of deficient, technical, or scientific uncertainties canand often doengender positive or neutral responses from diverse audiences in diverse contexts.”
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our review and summary observations reveal that portraying uncertainty in public science communication contexts has been found to have myriad positive and negative effects on a wide range of beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Johnson and Slovic (1995) found that individuals who believe technical uncertainty is a natural characteristic of good science communication expressed more positive evaluations of the science and scientists.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Johnson and Slovic, 1995 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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In the paper
“people who see science as an ongoing debate that will always have inherent uncertainty responded more positively to uncertainty about climate change research, compared to people who see science as uncovering absolute truths (Rabinovich and Morton, 2012).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Rabinovich and Morton, 2012 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This review also found that conditional effects are frequent.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“This is sometimes done to increase clarity and simplicity for uninitiated lay audiences (Ebeling, 2008)”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Ebeling, 2008 source
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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In the paper
“Uncertainty can also cause people to justify continuing in their current state rather than responding to information with adaptive action (Budescu, Rapoport, and Suleiman, 1990)”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Budescu, Rapoport, and Suleiman, 1990 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“humans tend to be ambiguity-averse (Camerer and Weber, 1992;Keren and Gerritsen, 1999)”
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Some research suggests that communicating uncertainty about science will instigate, perpetuate, or exacerbate more negative attitudes toward scientists and their claims.”
What the sources say
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“people often expect experts to be precise and confident (Shanteau, 1987)”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Shanteau, 1987 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“partly because many people do not understand the role of uncertainty in science (Roth et al., 1990)”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Roth et al., 1990 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“some surveys indicate that perceived uncertainty among scientists is negatively related to supportive attitudes (e.g., Ding et al., 2011)”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Ding et al., 2011 source
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Myriad analyses across diverse media, locations, times, issues, and topics agree that public-facing science communication about specific scientific findings is often presented within an uncertainty frame via mentions of deficient knowledge, shortcomings of the research, controversy among scientists, and error or probability ranges (Antilla, 2005;Bailey, Giangola, and Boykoff, 2014;Jung, 2012;Kuha,”
What the sources say
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“in the contexts of climate change and gun control, people tend to apply the most worldview-consistent interpretation of technical uncertainty (Dieckmann, Gregory, Peters, and Hartman, 2017).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Dieckmann, Gregory, Peters, and Hartman, 2017 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across these studies, the experimental manipulations of uncertainty stimuli vary widely, which may be a reason for the disparate findings of effects.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Portraying uncertainty in a science communication message does not simply add a piece of information-it shapes the meanings, interpretations, implications, and schema activated regarding the ambiguity, imprecision, and confidence of the message and the messenger.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Uncertainty may create especially fertile ground for confirmation bias and directional motivated reasoning (Nickerson, 1998;Taber and Lodge, 2006) because ambiguity, controversy, doubt, or imprecision may inherently allow for diverse interpretations (Chang, 2012(Chang, , 2015;;Jacques et al., 2008;McCright and Dunlap, 2003;Oreskes and Conway, 2011).”
What the sources say
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The evidence from this review suggests influences such as motivated reasoning based on prior opinions about the topics, science, and scientists.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, this cacophony of disparate findings can be somewhat clarified when separately examining the effects of four different types of uncertainty portrayals.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Further, the multi-dimensional heterogeneities in characteristics (e.g., topic, stimuli, outcome variables, samples, year) of these 48 studies constitute potential confounds to conclusions drawn from this review.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, it is important to note that the negative effects of one type of uncertainty (e.g., consensus uncertainty) in one topic or to one audience do not imply that another type of uncertainty (e.g., deficient, technical, or scientific uncertainty) in another topic or audience also will have similar negative effects.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For these reasons, portrayals of consensus uncertainty in public science communication may often result in negative effects.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There are multiple potential explanations for this consistent pattern of negative effects of consensus uncertainty.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the high frequency of null effects despite possible publication bias provides strong indication that we should not expect technical, deficient, or scientific uncertainty to have a strong pattern of significant effects in unpublished works.”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Publication bias may affect the observations drawn from the current review.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table 2 indicates that these attitudes may drive responses to portrayals of uncertainty as well.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“An individual's deference to, and trust in, science is associated with responses to science communication in general (e.g., Anderson et al., 2011;Lee and Scheufele, 2006).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Anderson et al., 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Lee and Scheufele, 2006 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
- It may state two separate claims as one. 37
- Probably not a substantial claim. 35
At least one cited source doesn’t support this claim or points to a different paper, and none confirmed it — see the verdicts below.
In the paper
“Gustafson and Rice (2019) found some negative effects of consensus uncertainty in one topic (climate change) but not in two others (GMO food labeling and machinery hazards).”
What the sources say
- Disputedcites Gustafson and Rice, 2019 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Summary reports small negative effects of consensus uncertainty in both the climate change (CC) and vibrating machinery (VM) conditions, but not the GMO condition. The Discussion likewise reports significantly lower claim belief for both climate change and machinery, contrary to the claim that machinery showed no negative effect. (LLM, conf=0.92)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Disputed
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Scientific press releases often include caveats, and these lead to more caveats in the subsequent journalism coverage (Sumner et al., 2016)”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Sumner et al., 2016 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results section reports that caveats appeared in only 14–15% of press releases, so describing them as 'often' included overstates their frequency. It also reports substantially higher odds of caveats appearing in news when the press release contained one. The Discussion cautions that this observational study cannot establish that press-release caveats caused the increase. (LLM, conf=0.89)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“A sequence of several experiments by van der Bles and colleagues (2020) concluded that verbal (but not numerical) expressions of uncertainty slightly reduced participants' own levels of certainty as well as their trust in the message source.”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites van der Bles et al., 2020 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results’ internal metaanalysis reports a small reduction in trust in the source for verbal uncertainty, but not numerical uncertainty. It also reports that both verbal and numerical expressions increased participants’ perceived uncertainty about the numbers. Thus the ‘but not numerical’ distinction does not hold for certainty; the measured outcome was perceived certainty of the numbers, rather than participants’ own general level of certainty. Our copy provides no page number for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Gustafson and Rice (2019) tested the effects of four uncertainty types across three different science topics, finding that three of the four uncertainty types had no significant effects on beliefs, risk perceptions, or behavioral intentions.”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Gustafson and Rice, 2019 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract and Discussion report that four uncertainty frames were tested across three science topics and that scientific, technical, and deficient uncertainty showed no pattern of significant effects relative to the control. But the paper identifies its measured outcomes as claim belief, credibility, and behavioral intention—not risk perceptions. The claim substitutes risk perceptions for credibility. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nearly 20 years later, there is much more empirical evidence but still a great deal of uncertainty about the effects of uncertainty.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the extant experiments testing the effects of uncertainty vary widely in design, research fields, and results, resulting in considerable inconsistency.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“technical uncertainty has often had positive main effects (1,4,12,30,42,45,46), positive effects moderated by individual-level trait variables, and null effects.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Deficient uncertainty has been found to have a diverse mix of effects, including positive main effects (5, 9, 13, 18, 27, 42), negative main effects (18,23,34,36,41,43,48), null effects, and effects moderated by individual-level trait variables.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Clarke et al. (2015) found that a hedging statement (although accompanied by information about the true weight of evidence) increased beliefs in scientists' certainty about the vaccine-autism controversy and decreased beliefs of scientific discord.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Clarke et al., 2015 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“portrayals of uncertainty about vaccine safety can cause individuals to have greater doubts about vaccine safety and to perceive greater discord among scientists (Dixon and Clarke, 2013;Dixon et al., 2015).”
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The search process resulted in a final set of 48 journal articles and book chapters, containing 68 separate experiments conducted on a total combined set of 38,947 participants.”
plainn = 38,947- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“participants exposed to contradictory research findings published in health news reported lower favorability ratings toward health research, lower perceived credibility of the research, and lower behavioral intentions toward healthy behavior (Chang, 2015).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Chang, 2015 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“While not studied frequently, scientific uncertainty has been found to have some positive main effects (2, 42), one instance of null effects (44), and one instance of negative effects (41).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The effects of portraying deficient uncertainty are mixed, with several experiments finding positive effects and others negative effects.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The effects of portraying scientific uncertainty are mixed but tentative because this type of uncertainty has rarely been studied.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In stark contrast, portrayals of technical uncertainty did not show negative effects-only positive or null effects.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“One example is a study (Nan and Daily, 2015) finding that portrayals of scientific disagreement regarding vaccine safety resulted in more supportive attitudes for individuals with prior support for vaccines, but less supportive attitudes for those with prior opposition to vaccines.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Nan and Daily, 2015 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Aklin and Urpelainen (2014) manipulated the degree of expert consensus (e.g., 60%, 80%, 98%) that was portrayed about environmental policy, and found that increases in consensus (i.e., more agreement) resulted in stronger policy support-but only for people who already had high trust in scientists.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Aklin and Urpelainen, 2014 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Binder and colleagues (2016) found that portrayals of technical uncertainty about nanotechnology resulted in lower perceived risk than portrayals of consensus uncertainty, but only for individuals who reported high deference to science.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Binder et al., 2016 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For those with low trust, the portrayals of higher consensus decreased policy support-a boomerang effect-possibly because it confirmed suspicions of systemic collusion.”
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Several interactions noted in Table 2 follow similar patterns of confirmation bias and motivated reasoning.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“and sometimes out of fear of inviting adverse effects such as increased motivated skepticism and reduced credibility perceptions (Stocking, 1999)”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Stocking, 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Evidence from the risk communication literature indicates that portrayals of uncertainty about scientific claims of threat imminence and threat severity can enhance trust in the source and thereby increase the desired behavioral responses toward risk mitigation (Frewer et al., 2002;Habicht, 1992;Johnson and Slovic, 1995;Slovic, Fischoff, and Lichenstein, 1984).”
What the sources say
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“frames can serve both as a persuasion technique and as an information accessibility mechanism (Shulman and Sweitzer, 2018) because they influence responses to a message by making related information or beliefs more available, accessible, or applicable (Chong and Druckman, 2007).”
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“science can disprove hypotheses but can only provisionally support hypotheses (Popper, 1959)”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Popper, 1959 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Scholars argue it is important to convey the uncertainties of science in public-facing science communication (e.g., journalism, media, public campaigns) so that the public is not misled and can make informed decisions (Campbell, 2011;Stocking, 2010).”
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
In the paper
“science moves in paradigmatic cycles in which discoveries can spark a rejection of longstanding assumptions while also introducing new uncertainties (Kuhn, 1970)”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kuhn, 1970
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“uncertainty is often difficult to understand and ambiguity can cause confusion or other negative reactions (Han, Moser, and Klein, 2007;Tversky and Shafir, 1992)”
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“some scholars have encouraged scientists to more openly include uncertainties when communicating to the public (Campbell, 2011;Leshner, 2003;Parascandola, 2000;Stocking, 2010).”
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“the competitive, iterative, and unending nature of scientific progress necessarily and usefully breeds conflicting theories and competing hypotheses (Shanteau, 2000)”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Shanteau, 2000
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“responsible science communication involves describing the current state of uncertainty in deliberate terms (Carpenter, 1995)”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Carpenter, 1995
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Uncertainty is inherent to the nature of science and scientific knowledge.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Popper, 1959 source
- Not matchedcites Kuhn, 1970
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
In the paper
“Two fundamental message framing types are emphasis (highlighting a particular theme, interpretation, or aspects) and equivalence (using differently valenced or oriented content that is logically equal) (Cacciatore, Scheufele, and Iyenger, 2016).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cacciatore, Scheufele, and Iyenger, 2016 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Making nuanced distinctions among distinct types of uncertainty is necessary for conceptual clarity, theoretical understanding, methodological consistency, and predicting audience responses.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To be included, a study must portray uncertainty as an experimental manipulation, such that levels of outcome variables are compared between the condition(s) with messages using uncertainty and the condition(s) using a control message (no uncertainty).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This last step was repeated for each new inclusion until zero new inclusions remained.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“different types of uncertainty represent fundamentally distinct uses, meanings, interpretations, and effects.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we can communicate uncertainty as an inherent feature of even the most confident scientific findings, because we do not know how future research, data, or theory will change how we view our current set of knowledge.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“its ability to connect root causes of uncertainty to their associated communicative expressions”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“this review includes only studies using the context of public-facing mass communication (e.g., journalism, scientific reports, PSAs, communication campaigns) and thus excludes private, interpersonal, and/or informal communication contexts.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The first author coded the manifest and latent content, and consulted with the second author to resolve any ambiguities.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Then, lastly, for each individual item that fit the inclusion criteria, its entire reference list and Google Scholar's entire list of subsequent works citing that study and cited by that study were inspected for additional studies that might also fit the inclusion criteria.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Many scientific claims are limited by measurement error, modeling approximations, and statistical assumptions (Broomell and Kane, 2017).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Broomell and Kane, 2017 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“a portrayal of controversy within the scientific community has different connotations and implications than a portrayal of an estimated confidence interval in a model projection.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, for a relevant publication to have been overlooked (aside from human coder error), it would have had to be not included in the 8,000 search results, to have cited zero of the 48 included studies, and also to have been cited by zero of the 48 included studies.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The review is exclusively interested in persuasive effects on beliefs, attitudes, or behaviors (e.g., belief in the message, perceived credibility, behavioral intentions, risk perceptions), and thus we exclude experiments that instead measured effects on the correctness of message comprehension or interpretation.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Experiments were only included if the treatment message was about a science-related topic (i.e., a claim about evidence or predictions portrayed as made by scientists specifically or science generally).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Uncertainty portrayals can function as emphasis frames, by highlighting a specific set of meanings and associations, and thus shaping interpretations and responses.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“this review focuses exclusively on verbal and numerical depictions of uncertainty, and excludes studies of the effects of visual depictions of uncertainty.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“science communication often portrays uncertainty as either a range (e.g., 7-15cm), as a probability (e.g., a 65% chance), or as an estimated value with a confidence interval or error bars (e.g., Morton, Rabinovich, Marshall, and Bretschneider, 2011).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Morton, Rabinovich, Marshall, and Bretschneider, 2011 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For each of these 40 separate searches, we examined the first 200 items for peer-reviewed research (e.g., journal articles, book chapters, conference papers) that satisfied the above inclusion criteria (8x5x200 = 8,000 results).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Non-experimental designs are excluded, such as focus groups and correlational surveys.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“These varying forms of uncertainty portrayals in science communication are created by diverse forces, including good intentions such as journalistic ethical norms (Bennett, 1996;Boykoff and Boykoff, 2004), intended or unconscious influences such as insufficient science literacy or training, malignant motives such as public disinformation campaigns (Jacques, Dunlap, and Freeman, 2008;McCright and”
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We choose this typology because of its parsimony”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
In the paper
“In another study (excluded from the review's results per the criteria of uncertainty manipulations being contained in one message), uncertainty about dioxin in sewage sludge diminished credibility, but uncertainty about the reintroduction of gray wolves to populated areas increased credibility (Jensen and Hurley, 2012).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Jensen and Hurley, 2012
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“In both studies, the authors invoke the theory of motivated information management (Afifi and Weiner, 2004) to argue that people may feel uncertainty about one topic is acceptable while similar uncertainty about a different topic is unacceptable.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Afifi and Weiner, 2004 source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Some evidence indicates that people prefer ambiguity to conflict (Smithson, 1999), which may lead them to view the ambiguities implied by technical, deficient, and scientific uncertainty more favorably than the conflict implied by consensus uncertainty.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Smithson, 1999 source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“consensus uncertainty is the only uncertainty type that provides direct evidence contrary to the claim, by implying that there are experts or evidence that take a contrary position.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, it is important to note that the frequency of conditional effects found in the experimental literature is in large part determined by researchers' interests in conditional effects, and does not necessarily reflect the frequency, nature, or magnitude of conditional effects in the real world.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This caveat is particularly important given the evidence showing that responses to uncertainty are sensitive to contextual and individual characteristics.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“judgments are often made based on some weighted average of the opinions of experts (Budescu, Rantilla, Yu, and Karelitz, 2003), which suggests that portrayals of consensus uncertainty could affect judgments by influencing the perceived average of expert opinion.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Budescu, Rantilla, Yu, and Karelitz, 2003 source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Even when reporting findings on which there is relative agreement, scientists often describe a degree of uncertainty surrounding a parameter.
“Even when reporting findings on which there is relative agreement, scientists often describe a degree of uncertainty surrounding a parameter.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Statistical science itself is an exercise in specifying uncertainty with precision by making estimations of variation and error.
“Statistical science itself is an exercise in specifying uncertainty with precision by making estimations of variation and error.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Scientists frequently present findings as probabilities or as estimates couched in error ranges.
“scientists frequently present findings as probabilities or as estimates couched in error ranges.”
The paper relies on this without support.
All science is subject to the inescapable possibility that in the future, our current best understandings may change in ways that are currently unknown and possibly unknowable.
“All science is subject to the inescapable possibility that in the future, our current best understandings may change in ways that are currently unknown and possibly unknowable.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Publication bias may affect the observations drawn from the current review.
“One limitation to observations drawn from the current review is that of publication bias.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Very small samples are fertile ground for generating effects that do not replicate.
“which are fertile ground for generating effects that do not replicate”
The paper relies on this without support.
The inclusion criteria or search methods may have excluded experiments that could help shine light on the question of the effects of uncertainty.
“Another relevant limitation is that the inclusion criteria or search methods may have excluded experiments that could help shine light on the question of the effects of uncertainty.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Different methods may have resulted in a slightly different set of studies.
“Different methods may have resulted in a slightly different set of studies.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Relevant research might be siloed in other fields using very different terminology, and might neither cite nor be cited by the studies included here.
“It is also possible that relevant research might be siloed in other fields using very different terminology, and might neither cite nor be cited by the studies included here.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Yet, such detrimental effects were small and mostly limited to verbal (e.g. hedges, i.e. words such as appear, seem, likely, might or could) but not numerical (e.g. numerical ranges of estimates) expressions of uncertainty (8, 9, 22).”
From Expressions of uncertainty in online science communication hinder information diffusion (2024) · cites this paper as [8]
In the citing paper
“While several studies examined the impact of communicating uncertainty on trust in science and yielded mixed results (8, 9)”
From Expressions of uncertainty in online science communication hinder information diffusion (2024) · cites this paper as [8]
In the citing paper
“the possible implications of uncertainty for the dissemination of scientific findings remained unexplored so far.”
From Expressions of uncertainty in online science communication hinder information diffusion (2024) · cites this paper as [8]
In the citing paper
“The negative effect is primarily associated with “verbal uncertainty” (such as hedging), while numerical uncertainty (communicating ranges of estimates; also referred to as technical uncertainty) does not erode science credibility (8, 9).”
From Expressions of uncertainty in online science communication hinder information diffusion (2024) · cites this paper as [8]
In the citing paper
“As some types of uncertainty expression (e.g. numerical or technical uncertainty) do not seem to bear the reputational costs of lower credibility (8)”
From Expressions of uncertainty in online science communication hinder information diffusion (2024) · cites this paper as [8]
In the citing paper
“Uncertainty is inherent to scientific endeavours”
From Negative verbal probabilities undermine communication of climate science (2025) · cites this paper as [8]
In the citing paper
“how it should be communicated to the public represents an important challenge 8”
From Negative verbal probabilities undermine communication of climate science (2025) · cites this paper as [8]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ Effects by Uncertainty Types
“Importantly, Table 2 does not contain a single instance of consensus uncertainty resulting in positive main effects.”
§ Conditional Effects, Clarifications, and Caveats
“| 7 Wiedemann et al., 2006 | 639 (1) | S | Electromag. Fields | | C | Cr, +EC, R C had sig. (+) effect on perceived status of scientific |”
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ Effects by Uncertainty Types
“This review finds no instances of technical uncertainty resulting in negative effects.”
§ Conditional Effects, Clarifications, and Caveats
“| 1 Johnson & Slovic, 1995 | 669 (3) | S | Chemical Hazards | T | | +/-Cr, +R sig (+) effect on R and trust; sig. (-) effect on expertise |”
Citations
Cites
Framing: toward clarification of a fractured paradigm
Entman, R. M. (1993) · Journal of Communication · doi:10.1111/j.1460-2466.1993.tb01304.x · Cited by 16,203
Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises
Nickerson, R. S. (1998) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175 · Cited by 7,267
Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs
Taber, C. S., & Lodge, M. (2006) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00214.x · Cited by 4,344
The Logic of Scientific Discovery.
Rescher, N., Popper, K. R., & Hanson, N. R. (1960) · Philosophy and Phenomenological Research · doi:10.2307/2104331 · Cited by 2,455
Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support
Walker, W. E., Harremoës, P., Rotmans, J., van der Sluijs, J. P., van Asselt, M. B. A., Janssen, P., & Krayer von Krauss, M. P. (2003) · Integrated Assessment · doi:10.1076/iaij.4.1.5.16466 · Cited by 2,067
Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity
Camerer, C., & Weber, M. (1992) · Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · doi:10.1007/bf00122575 · Cited by 1,795
Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press
Boykoff, M. T., & Boykoff, J. M. (2004) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001 · Cited by 1,699
Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy
Funtowicz, S. O., & Ravetz, J. R. (1990) · doi:10.1007/978-94-009-0621-1 · Cited by 1,575
Communication and Uncertainty Management
Brashers, D. E. (2001) · Journal of Communication · doi:10.1111/j.1460-2466.2001.tb02892.x · Cited by 1,407
Cancer epidemiology biomarkers & prevention
Press, H. (1991) · Cited by 1,398
Research works printed but not linked: 6
- Carpenter RA, 1995, Environmental Professional, 17, 127
- Habicht FH, 1992, Guidance on Risk Characterization for Risk Managers and Risk Assessors
- Kuha M, 2009, Language & Ecology, 2, 1
- Parascandola M, 2000, Research Practitioner, 1, 1
- Stocking SH, 1999, Communicating Uncertainty: Media Coverage of New and Controversial Science, 23
- Winter S, 2015, Journal of Language and Social Psychology, 34, 251
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Toward effective government communication strategies in the era of COVID-19
Hyland, B., Gardner, J., Leask, J., & Ecker, U. K. H. (2021) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-020-00701-w · Cited by 536
The Evolving Field of Risk Communication
Balog‐Way, D. H. P., McComas, K. A., & Besley, J. C. (2020) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.13615 · Cited by 263
“First, different forms of uncertainty, such as deficient, technical, consensus, and scientific, need to be recognized in research and practice (Bostrom et al., 2018; Gustafson & Rice, 2020; National Academy of Sciences, 2016b; van Der Bles et al., 2020).”
BackgroundScience skepticism in times of COVID-19
Rutjens, B. T., van der Linden, S., & van der Lee, R. (2021) · Group Processes & Intergroup Relations · doi:10.1177/1368430220981415 · Cited by 171
“Although invoking uncertainty is often quoted as a facilitator of science denial, recent work has found that transparently communicating scientific uncertainty about contested facts does not necessarily undermine public trust in science (Gustafson & Rice, 2020; van der Bles et al., 2020).”
BackgroundSauer, M. A., Truelove, S., Gerste, A. K., & Limaye, R. J. (2021) · Health Security · doi:10.1089/hs.2020.0190 · Cited by 102
“People may be more receptive to unknowns when they are presented as steps in the robust scientific process rather than the result of failures by authorities.(32,48)”
BackgroundCommunicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users
Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., O’Reilly, J., Drijfhout, S., Edwards, T., Fox‐Kemper, B., Garner, G. G., Golledge, N. R., Hermans, T. H. J., Hewitt, H. T., et al. (2023) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8 · Cited by 103
Metadata
- Authors
- Gustafson, A., & Rice, R. E.
- Affiliations
- Yale University (US)
- University of California, USA
- Corresponding author
- Gustafson, Abel
- Venue
- Public Understanding of Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2020-07-17
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 614-633
- ISSN
- 0963-6625 (ISSN-L)
- 1361-6609
- OpenAlex
- W3042498646
- Semantic Scholar
- 82f1e7e1a27c3b3b301e986b68f0850fb16b93c6
- Cited by
- 291
- References
- 111
- Citations by year
- 2026: 79 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 55 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 4
- FWCI
- 42.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- escholarship.org
- Locations
- Public Understanding of Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Arthur N. Rupe endowment
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Library and Information Sciences › Academic Publishing and Open Access
- Keywords
- uncertainty communication, science communication, technological uncertainty, scientific uncertainty, credibility, public beliefs, prior beliefs, worldview, probability communication
- MeSH terms
- Communication, Dissent and Disputes, Uncertainty
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-11, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-11 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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