A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Multiple Airborne Pollutants and Autism Spectrum Disorder
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution is widespread and may be detrimental to human brain development and a potential risk factor for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). We conducted a systematic review of the human evidence on the relationship between ASD and exposure to all airborne pollutants, including particulate matter air pollutants and others (e.g. pesticides and metals). OBJECTIVE: To answer the question: "is developmental exposure to air pollution associated with ASD?" METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive search of the literature, identified relevant studies using inclusion/exclusion criteria pre-specified in our protocol (registered in PROSPERO, CRD # 42015017890), evaluated the potential risk of bias for each included study and identified an appropriate subset of studies to combine in a meta-analysis. We then rated the overall quality and strength of the evidence collectively across all air pollutants. RESULTS: Of 1,158 total references identified, 23 human studies met our inclusion criteria (17 case-control, 4 ecological, 2 cohort). Risk of bias was generally low across studies for most domains; study limitations were related to potential confounding and accuracy of exposure assessment methods. We rated the quality of the body of evidence across all air pollutants as "moderate." From our meta-analysis, we found statistically significant summary odds ratios (ORs) of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.08) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 exposure (n = 6 studies) and 2.32 (95% CI: 2.15, 2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure (n = 3 studies). For pollutants not included in a meta-analysis, we collectively evaluated evidence from each study in rating the strength and quality of overall evidence considering factors such as inconsistency, imprecision, and evidence of dose-response. All included studies generally showed increased risk of ASD with increasing exposure to air pollution, although not consistently across all chemical components. CONCLUSION: After considering strengths and limitations of the body of research, we concluded that there is "limited evidence of toxicity" for the association between early life exposure to air pollution as a whole and diagnosis of ASD. The strongest evidence was between prenatal exposure to particulate matter and ASD. However, the small number of studies in the meta-analysis and unexplained statistical heterogeneity across the individual study estimates means that the effect could be larger or smaller (including not significant) than these studies estimate. Our research supports the need for health protective public policy to reduce exposures to harmful airborne contaminants among pregnant women and children and suggests opportunities for optimizing future research.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This systematic review and meta-analysis found generally increased ASD risk with air pollution exposure, with the strongest evidence for particulate matter, but rated the overall evidence as “limited evidence of toxicity.” Pooled random-effects estimates were statistically significant for PM10 and PM2.5, though based on few studies with unexplained heterogeneity.
Key findings
- Of 1,158 references, 23 human studies met inclusion criteria (17 case-control, 4 ecological, 2 cohort); risk of bias was generally low across most domains except confounding and exposure assessment.
- Meta-analysis found a summary OR of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.08) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 (n = 6 studies) and 2.32 (95% CI: 2.15, 2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 (n = 3 studies).
- The quality of the body of evidence across all air pollutants was rated “moderate,” and the overall strength of evidence was rated “limited evidence of toxicity.”
- All included studies generally showed increased ASD risk with increasing air pollution exposure, but not consistently across all chemical components; non-meta-analyzed pollutants had limited data and confidence intervals commonly overlapped the null.
Methods
- Applied the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology, based on Cochrane/GRADE, with a protocol registered in PROSPERO (CRD # 42015017890); searched PubMed, ISI Web of Science, Biosis Previews, Embase, Google Scholar, Toxline, grey literature, and expert consultation.
- Included human studies with original data, air pollution exposure prior to ASD diagnosis/assessment, and a comparator; 23 studies were included after duplicate screening and full-text review.
- For meta-analysis, standardized adjusted OR estimates per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 or PM2.5 and combined them in random-effects models with inverse variance weighting; heterogeneity assessed with Cochran’s Q and I2, with leave-one-out and hierarchical cluster analyses.
Limitations
- The paper states that the small number of studies in the meta-analysis and unexplained statistical heterogeneity mean the effect could be larger or smaller, including not significant; sensitivity analyses suggested a single added study could shift PM10 or PM2.5 summary estimates to overlap the null.
- The paper states that study limitations related to potential confounding and accuracy of exposure assessment methods, with many air pollutant chemicals or classes rated “high” or “probably high” risk of bias for exposure assessment.
- The paper states that publication bias could not be assessed quantitatively because fewer than 10 studies were included in the meta-analysis; evident from the text, the evidence base is observational and heterogeneous in exposure metrics, confounder adjustment, and outcome assessment.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Cites
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 54 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
Risk of bias was generally low across studies for most domains.
“Risk of bias was generally low across studies for most domains”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
The quality of the body of evidence across all air pollutants was rated as moderate.
“We rated the quality of the body of evidence across all air pollutants as “moderate.””
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Meta-analysis found a statistically significant summary odds ratio of 2.32 (95% CI: 2.15, 2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure (n = 3 studies).
“2.32 (95% CI: 2.15, 2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure (n = 3 studies)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Meta-analysis found a statistically significant summary odds ratio of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.08) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 exposure (n = 6 studies).
“we found statistically significant summary odds ratios (ORs) of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.08) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 exposure (n = 6 studies)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The systematic review identified 23 human studies meeting inclusion criteria (17 case-control, 4 ecological, 2 cohort).
“Of 1,158 total references identified, 23 human studies met our inclusion criteria (17 case-control, 4 ecological, 2 cohort).”
- Also stated in: § Included studies · plain
“bringing the total number of screened references to 1,158 and the total number of included studies to 23”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Included studies · plain
- Findingnone given
Study limitations were related to potential confounding and accuracy of exposure assessment methods.
“study limitations were related to potential confounding and accuracy of exposure assessment methods”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Adding a hierarchical cluster structure to include study [52] as a separate cluster greatly reduced unexplained heterogeneity (I2 = 2%, p-value = 0.41).
“We added in a hierarchical cluster structure to include this study as a separate cluster from all other studies, and this greatly reduced the unexplained heterogeneity (I2 = 2%, p-value = 0.41), indicating that with this clustered analysis statistical heterogeneity was of minimal concern.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Of the 23 included studies, six that measured PM10 and three that measured PM2.5, a subset of the six with PM10 data, were amenable to meta-analyses.
“Of the 23 included studies, six studies that measured PM10 and three that measured PM2.5 (a subset of the six with PM10 data) were amenable to meta-analyses.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Based on the clustered meta-analysis, the pooled effect estimate for PM2.5 was OR = 2.32 (95% CI 2.15 to 2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase.
“Based on this clustered meta-analysis, we found a pooled effect estimate of OR = 2.32 (95% CI 2.15 to 2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 (Fig 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
There was no evidence that residual confounding influenced results.
“There was no evidence that residual confounding influenced results.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
No concern regarding imprecision in effect estimates across studies was identified.
“No concern regarding the imprecision in effect estimates across studies.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
There was considerable statistical heterogeneity in the pooled PM10 estimate (I2 = 77%, p-value = 0.007).
“However, there was considerable statistical heterogeneity in the pooled estimate (I2 = 77%, p-value = 0.007).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The other air pollutants most consistently reporting statistically significant associations with ASD included heavy metals with exposures assessed using NATA data.
“The other air pollutants most consistently reporting statistically significant associations with of ASD included heavy metals with exposures assessed using NATA data.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
All studies included in the meta-analyses measured PM exposure levels either through national or state air quality monitoring stations or through historical emissions databases combined with dispersion models to estimate residential levels of pollutants.
“All studies included in the meta-analyses measured PM exposure levels either through national or state air quality monitoring stations (i.e., US Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System, California Air Resources Board monitor stations, or Taiwan EPA monitoring stations) or through historical emissions databases, combined with dispersion models to estimate residential levels of pollutants”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
The quality of the human evidence was rated as moderate.
“We rated the quality of the human evidence as “moderate.””
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Leave-one-out analysis identified one study [52] as contributing to the majority of heterogeneity in the PM10 meta-analysis.
“Using a leave-one-out analysis, we identified one study in particular [52] that was contributing to the majority of this heterogeneity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [52] HE Volk, 2013, Traffic-related air pollution, particulate matter, and autism, JAMA psychiatry source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
Only 21 of the 103 rated air pollutant chemicals or chemical classes were reported in three or more studies.
“Only 21 of these chemicals or chemical classes were reported in ≥3 studies.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The statistical heterogeneity in the PM10 meta-analysis was largely unexplained by differences in design characteristics.
“We contrasted design characteristics of this study with those of the other included studies to determine if the statistical heterogeneity could be explained by differences on a key characteristic; however, we concluded that the statistical heterogeneity was largely unexplained.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Initial meta-analyses of PM10 yielded a pooled OR = 1.20 (95% CI: [1.00, 1.42]).
“The initial meta-analyses of PM10 yielded a pooled OR = 1.20 (95% CI: [1.00, 1.42]).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Based on the clustered meta-analysis, the overall effect estimate for PM10 was OR = 1.07 (95% CI: [1.06, 1.08]) per 10-μg/m3 increase.
“Based on this clustered meta-analysis, we found an overall effect estimate of OR = 1.07 (95% CI: [1.06, 1.08]) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 (Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
We rated the final overall strength of the evidence as limited.
“We rated the final overall strength of the evidence as “limited” (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was an insufficient number of studies to utilize funnel plot analyses to assess publication bias quantitatively.
“There was insufficient number of studies to utilize funnel plot analyses to assess publication bias quantitatively”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Adding a hierarchical cluster structure for PM2.5 greatly reduced unexplained heterogeneity (I2 = 0%, p-value = 0.54).
“Adding in a hierarchical cluster structure here greatly reduced the unexplained heterogeneity (I2 = 0%, p-value = 0.54), indicating that with this clustered analysis statistical heterogeneity was of minimal concern.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The number of studies included in the meta-analysis was too small, less than 10, for a statistical evaluation of potential publication bias.
“The number of studies included in the meta-analysis were too small (i.e., <10) for a statistical evaluation of potential publication bias.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
We found insufficient evidence to upgrade the body of evidence.
“We found insufficient evidence to upgrade the body of evidence.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In meta-analyses, PM demonstrated statistically significant summary associations with ASD.
“In meta-analyses, PM demonstrated statistically significant summary associations with ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
One included study reported an elevated risk of ASD only in those with a mutation in the MET tyrosine kinase receptor and those in the highest exposure level category.
“One of the included studies reported an elevated risk of ASD only in those with a mutation in the MET tyrosine kinase receptor and those in the highest exposure level category [53].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [53] HE Volk, 2014, Autism Spectrum Disorder: Interaction of Air Pollution with the MET Receptor Tyrosine Kinase Gene., Epidemiology
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
The observed summary effect estimate for PM2.5 (OR = 2.32) was larger than that for PM10 (OR = 1.20).
“We observed a larger summary effect estimate for PM2.5 (OR = 2.32) than for PM10 (OR = 1.20).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
Many effect estimates were reported on different scales or categorized the exposures using different ranges.
“Many effect estimates were reported on different scales or categorized the exposures using different ranges.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
There is limited evidence of toxicity for the association between early life exposure to air pollution as a whole and diagnosis of ASD.
“we concluded that there is “limited evidence of toxicity” for the association between early life exposure to air pollution as a whole and diagnosis of ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The strongest evidence was between prenatal exposure to particulate matter and ASD.
“The strongest evidence was between prenatal exposure to particulate matter and ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Similar exposure assessment methods for different air pollutant compounds are heterogeneous in terms of internal validity.
“The justification for this was based on empirical evidence demonstrating that similar exposure assessment methods for different air pollutant compounds are heterogeneous in terms of their internal validity [32, 33].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [32] AS Rosenbaum, 1999, National estimates of outdoor air toxics concentrations, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [33] US Environmental Protection Agency. Limitations in the 1996 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment: Uncertainty Washington, DC2002 [Accessed 24 December 2015]. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://archive.epa.gov/airtoxics/nata/web/html/conf.html" xlink:type="simple">http://archive.epa.gov/airtoxics/nata/web/html/conf.html</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductreasoning
Only studies involving PM10, PM2.5, ozone and methylene chloride were rated as probably low risk of bias.
“Ultimately, only the studies involving air pollutants of PM10, PM2.5, ozone and methylene chloride were rated as “probably low” risk of bias (Fig 2b).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Confidence in the relationship is constrained by factors such as the number, size, or quality of individual studies, or inconsistency of findings across individual studies.
“Confidence in the relationship is constrained by such factors as: the number, size, or quality of individual studies, or inconsistency of findings across individual studies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
For many of these air pollutants, serious risk of bias existed for exposure assessment with one or more studies rated as high or probably high.
“However, for many of these air pollutants, serious risk of bias existed for exposure assessment with one or more studies rated as “high” or “probably high” (Fig 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The 95% confidence interval for the I2 estimate (20-98%) suggested that heterogeneity was of concern.
“Although the overall number of studies was small, leading to uncertainty in the heterogeneity estimate, the 95% confidence interval for the I2 estimate (20–98%) suggested that heterogeneity was of concern.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Overall, most studies were rated as low or probably low risk of bias in most domains other than the confounding and exposure assessment domains.
“Overall, most studies were rated as “low” or “probably low” risk of bias in most domains other than the confounding and exposure assessment domains (Fig 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Studies of individual components of air pollution have found links to neurodevelopmental outcomes, including effects on IQ, language development, executive function, and psychomotor development.
“Studies of individual components of air pollution have found links to neurodevelopmental outcomes, including effects on intelligence quotient (IQ), language development, executive function, and psychomotor development [7–10].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [7] L Calderón-Garcidueñas, 2008, Long-term air pollution exposure is associated with neuroinflammation, an altered innate immune response, disruption of the blood-brain barrier, ultrafine particulate deposition, and accumulation of amyloid β-42 and α-synuclein in children and young adults, Toxicologic pathology source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [8] C Freire, 2010, Association of traffic-related air pollution with cognitive development in children, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [9] S Wang, 2009, Association of traffic-related air pollution with children's neurobehavioral functions in Quanzhou, China, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [10] M Guxens, 2012, Prenatal exposure to residential air pollution and infant mental development: modulation by antioxidants and detoxification factors, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Systematic review methods have only recently been developed and utilized in environmental health sciences.
“such methods have only recently been developed and utilized in environmental health sciences [23–30].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 8 sources checked- cites [23] TJ Woodruff, 2011, An evidence-based medicine methodology to bridge the gap between clinical and environmental health sciences, Health Affairs source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [24] E Koustas, 2014, The Navigation Guide—evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: systematic review of nonhuman evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [25] J Lam, 2014, The Navigation Guide-evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: Integration of animal and human evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [26] TJ Woodruff, 2014, The Navigation Guide systematic review methodology: a rigorous and transparent method for translating environmental health science into better health outcomes, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [27] HM Vesterinen, 2014, Fetal growth and maternal glomerular filtration rate: a systematic review, Journal of Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [28] PI Johnson, 2016, Application of the Navigation Guide Methodology: Systematic review of the evidence for developmental and reproductive toxicity of triclosan, Environment International
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [29] AA Rooney, 2014, Systematic review and evidence integration for literature-based environmental health science assessments, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [30] PI Johnson, 2014, The Navigation Guide—evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: systematic review of human evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductown data
Many contaminants rated as having high risk of exposure assessment bias used data from NATA, TRI, or self-reported surveys.
“Many of the contaminants that were ultimately rated as having “high” risk of exposure assessment bias used data from the US EPA National-scale Air Toxics Assessment (NATA), Toxic Release Inventory (TRI), or self-reported from surveys.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
All air pollutants based on TRI data were rated probably high risk of exposure assessment due to concerns about validity of extrapolating emission quantity data to individual or community-level exposures.
“All the air pollutants that were based on data modeled from Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) data were rated as “probably high” risk of exposure assessment based on concerns regarding the validity of extrapolating emission quantity data to individual or community-level exposures.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
The moderate rating was primarily based on concern that many air pollutant chemicals or classes had exposure assessment methods rated high or probably high for risk of bias, rated as between 0 to -1.
“Our decisions leading to this rating were primarily based on the concern that many of the air pollutant chemicals or classes had exposure assessment methods that were rated “high” or “probably high” for risk of bias for exposure assessment methods (rated as between “0 to -1”) (Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Heterogeneity across included studies in adjusted confounders, exposure/outcome timing, and ASD outcome assessment makes it difficult to combine results of multiple studies, because there is little empirical basis to inform how variations in these study characteristics impact reported effect estimates.
“Such heterogeneity makes it difficult to combine the results of multiple studies, as there is little empirical basis available to inform how variations in these study characteristics might impact the reported effect estimates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Accurate measurement of human exposures to air pollutants during developmentally relevant time periods remains a key limitation in this research area.
“Accurate measurement of human exposures to air pollutants during developmentally relevant time periods remains a key limitation in this research area”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
It would be unlikely that a future study would change the direction of the association between PM and ASD, for example moving air pollution from being a risk factor for ASD to being health protective for ASD.
“However, we found that it would be unlikely that a future study would change the direction of the association between PM and ASD, for example moving air pollution from being a risk factor for ASD to being health protective for ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The unexplained heterogeneity in the meta-analysis led us to conclude that the body of evidence fit the definition of limited toxicity better than the definition of sufficient toxicity.
“The unexplained heterogeneity in the meta-analysis led us to conclude that the body of evidence fit the definition of “limited toxicity” better than the definition of “sufficient toxicity.””
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The strongest evidence supported an association between exposure to particulate matter and ASD.
“The strongest evidence supported an association between exposure to particulate matter and ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Together, these findings support the hypothesis that early life exposure to air pollution may contribute to ASD.
“Together, these findings support the hypothesis that early life exposure to air pollution may contribute to ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
We determined through sensitivity analysis that future studies comparable to the ones included in our review, with similar effect estimates and uncertainty, could potentially change the strength of the relationship between PM and ASD estimated from the meta-analysis.
“We determined through sensitivity analysis that future studies comparable to the ones included in our review (i.e., with similar effect estimates and uncertainty) could potentially change the strength of the relationship between PM and ASD estimated from the meta-analysis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
The effect of particulate matter on ASD may be stronger or weaker than these results indicate.
“In other words, the effect of particulate matter on ASD may be stronger or weaker than these results indicate.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
There was limited evidence of toxicity for the association between ASD and air pollution.
“concluded that there was “limited evidence of toxicity.””
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
We concluded that there was limited evidence of toxicity for the association between early life exposure to air pollution as a whole and diagnosis of ASD.
“We concluded that there was “limited evidence of toxicity” for the association between early life exposure to air pollution as a whole and diagnosis of ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 44
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 40
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe 23 included studies were published between 2006 and 2015, included 174 to 4,057,712 participants born between the early 1990s through 2005, were based in 4 countries, and involved case-control, cohort, and ecological designs.
“The 23 included studies were all published between the years 2006 to 2015, included 174 to 4,057,712 participants born between the early 1990s through 2005, were based in 4 different countries, and involved case-control, cohort, and ecological study designs (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAll included studies generally showed increased risk of ASD with increasing exposure to air pollution, although not consistently across all chemical components.
“All included studies generally showed increased risk of ASD with increasing exposure to air pollution, although not consistently across all chemical components.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataSensitivity analysis for PM2.5 found an added study would need an effect estimate of OR = 1.02 to enlarge the confidence interval to overlap 1, and OR = 0.14 to shift the overall effect estimate to OR<1.
“Sensitivity analyses here (assuming the added hypothetical study would have a standard error of 0.04, equal to the smallest in our group of studies [39]) found that an added study would need an effect estimate of OR = 1.02 to enlarge the confidence interval to overlap 1, and an OR = 0.14 to shift the overall effect estimate to OR<1.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [39] TA Becerra, 2013, Ambient air pollution and autism in Los Angeles county, California, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenStudy populations came from a variety of cohorts and regions, primarily in the U.S., such as Nurses' Health Study II, CHARGE, ADDM Network, CATSS, or identified through insurance claims or state departments tracking ASD diagnoses.
“Study populations came from a variety of cohorts and regions, primarily in the U.S., such as the Nurses’ Health Study II, U.C. Davis’ Childhood Autism Risks from Genetics and the Environment (CHARGE) study, the Center for Diseases Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network, Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden (CATSS), or identified through”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataSensitivity analysis found an additional new study would need an effect estimate of OR = 1.03 to enlarge the PM10 confidence interval to overlap 1, and OR = 0.44 to shift the overall effect estimate to OR<1.
“We found that an additional new study would need to have an effect estimate of OR = 1.03 to enlarge our confidence interval to overlap 1, and OR = 0.44 to shift our overall effect estimate to OR<1.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingcitationOne additional included study [53] reported effect estimates for both PM10 and PM2.5 but was not included in the meta-analysis because its study population was a subset of the population reported in a previous article [52] already included.
“One additional included study [53] also reported effect estimates for both PM10 and PM2.5 but ultimately was not included in the meta-analysis because upon personal communication with the study authors [64] it was determined that the study population was a subset of the population reported in a previous article [52] that was already included in the meta-analyses.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [53] HE Volk, 2014, Autism Spectrum Disorder: Interaction of Air Pollution with the MET Receptor Tyrosine Kinase Gene., Epidemiology
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [64] Volk HE. Email correspondence. 2014.
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [52] HE Volk, 2013, Traffic-related air pollution, particulate matter, and autism, JAMA psychiatry source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAcross other air pollutants, there was generally a trend towards positive effects, increasing exposure associated with increased autism risk, although data were limited and confidence intervals commonly overlapped the null.
“We generally observed a trend towards positive effects (increasing exposure associated with increased autism risk), although there were limited data and confidence intervals commonly overlapped the null.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataWe identified several findings from the grey literature through our comprehensive search, and two studies did find negative findings.
“We identified several findings from the grey literature through our comprehensive search, and two studies did find negative findings.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAll of the studies found null or minimal effects only, with OR<2.
“All of the studies found null or minimal effects only (i.e., OR<2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningA positive relationship was observed between exposure and outcome where chance, bias, and confounding could not be ruled out with reasonable confidence.
“A positive relationship was observed between exposure and outcome where chance, bias, and confounding could not be ruled out with reasonable confidence.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataLeave-one-out analysis identified one study [39] as contributing to the majority of heterogeneity in the PM2.5 meta-analysis, and no particular methodological features driving heterogeneity could be identified.
“Again using a leave-one-out analysis, we identified one study in particular [39] that was contributing to the majority of the heterogeneity and we could not identify particular methodological features driving the heterogeneity so we classified it as unexplained.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [39] TA Becerra, 2013, Ambient air pollution and autism in Los Angeles county, California, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataEffect estimates across studies were mostly positive, showing increased risk, and small (OR<2), and confidence intervals overlapped across studies for the majority of estimates.
“Effect estimates across studies were mostly positive (showing increased risk) and small (OR<2) and confidence intervals overlapped across studies for the majority of estimates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenCoauthors felt there was some evidence of a dose-response relationship, but not enough to warrant upgrading of the evidence.
“Coauthors felt there was some evidence of a dose-response relationship, but not enough to warrant upgrading of the evidence.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor PM2.5, the summary effect estimate was OR = 1.88 (95% CI: [1.11, 3.20]) with considerable statistical heterogeneity (I2 = 96%; p-value<0.0001).
“For PM2.5, the summary effect estimate was OR = 1.88 (95% CI: [1.11, 3.20]) but, similar to PM10 analyses, we found evidence of considerable statistical heterogeneity (I2 = 96%; p-value<0.0001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataStudy population sizes in the meta-analyses ranged from 524 to 83,229.
“Study population sizes ranged from 524–83,229.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThese studies reported effect estimates similar enough to be combined into a meta-analysis; we found statistically significant pooled effect estimates for both PM components, with a stronger effect demonstrated for PM2.5 than for PM10.
“These studies reported effect estimates similar enough to be combined into a meta-analysis we found statistically significant pooled effect estimates for both PM components, with a stronger effect demonstrated for PM2.5 than for PM10.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
FindingcitationOur systematic review results were generally in concert with previous expert-based narrative reviews that addressed the association of ASD and environmental chemical exposures more broadly.
“Our systematic review results were generally in concert with previous expert-based narrative reviews that addressed the association of ASD and environmental chemical exposures more broadly [18, 65–67].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [18] K Lyall, 2014, Maternal lifestyle and environmental risk factors for autism spectrum disorders, International Journal of Epidemiology source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [65] I Hertz-Picciotto, 2011, Autism Spectrum Disorders
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [66] AE Kalkbrenner, 2014, Environmental Chemical Exposures and Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Review of the Epidemiological Evidence, Current Problems in Pediatric and Adolescent Health Care source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [67] DA Rossignol, 2014, Environmental toxicants and autism spectrum disorders: a systematic review, Translational Psychiatry source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenGenerally, the other air pollutants that could not be combined into a meta-analysis, such as some of the metal air pollutants, supported positive and statistically significant effects, although the effects were generally small and not consistent.
“Generally, the other air pollutants that could not be combined into a meta-analysis (such as some of the metal air pollutants) supported positive and statistically significant effects, although the effects were generally small and not consistent.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingnone givenRelatively few studies have been able to adequately power analyses of gene-environment interactions in ASD.
“relatively few studies have been able to adequately power such analyses.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataWe identified statistical heterogeneity in our meta-analysis that could be minimized through incorporating a clustered data analysis structure, but not explained through differences in study design.
“We identified statistical heterogeneity in our meta-analysis that could be minimized through incorporating a clustered data analysis structure, but not explained through differences in study design.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
FindingcitationThe observation that author cooperation was necessary to complete the meta-analysis is consistent with the authors' previous systematic reviews.
“This observation is consistent with our previous systematic reviews, [24, 27, 28, 30]”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [24] E Koustas, 2014, The Navigation Guide—evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: systematic review of nonhuman evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [27] HM Vesterinen, 2014, Fetal growth and maternal glomerular filtration rate: a systematic review, Journal of Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [28] PI Johnson, 2016, Application of the Navigation Guide Methodology: Systematic review of the evidence for developmental and reproductive toxicity of triclosan, Environment International
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [30] PI Johnson, 2014, The Navigation Guide—evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: systematic review of human evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataWe utilized six robust studies, five case-control and one cohort, with minimal risk of bias concerns that represented a total of 9,557 children with autism and 143,997 controls reporting on PM10 exposure, and a subset of these that also reported on PM2.5.
“We utilized six robust studies (five case-control and one cohort) with minimal risk of bias concerns that represented a total of 9,557 children with autism and 143,997 controls reporting on PM10 exposure, and a subset of these that also reported on PM2.5.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingnone givenThe included studies varied in the adjusted confounders considered, the timing of exposure or outcome measurement, and the method used for assessing the ASD outcome.
“The included studies varied in the adjusted confounders considered, the timing of exposure or outcome measurement, and the method used for assessing the ASD outcome.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
FindingcitationThe authors had completed their review but had not yet published their results when three new relevant studies were published.
“We had completed our review but had not yet published our results when three new relevant studies were published [69].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [69] M Guxens, 2016, Air Pollution Exposure during Pregnancy and Childhood Autistic Traits in Four European Population-Based Cohort Studies: The ESCAPE Project, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe small number of studies in the meta-analysis and unexplained statistical heterogeneity across individual study estimates means the effect could be larger or smaller (including not significant) than these studies estimate.
“However, the small number of studies in the meta-analysis and unexplained statistical heterogeneity across the individual study estimates means that the effect could be larger or smaller (including not significant) than these studies estimate.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataTwo of eight review authors independently recorded risk of bias determinations for each included study.
“Two of the eight review authors with subject-matter expertise (GW, AH, CN, AK, CL, TW, PS, EK) independently recorded risk of bias determinations for each included study.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenAn additional reviewer screened 5% of titles/abstracts and full-texts for quality assurance.
“An additional reviewer (PS) screened five percent of the titles/abstracts and full-texts for quality assurance.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataReferences were screened in duplicate using structured forms.
“We screened references in duplicate for inclusion using structured forms in DRAGON (ICF International; available at: http://www.icfi.com/insights/products-and-tools/dragon-online-tool-systematic-review) and DistillerSR (Evidence Partners; available at: http://www.systematic-review.net).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataTitle and abstract were independently reviewed by two of five reviewers.
“each reference from the literature search had the title and abstract independently reviewed by two of the five reviewers (ND, AH, AK, LD, GW) in a non-random assignment to ensure that the same two authors did not always screen the same references.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataEach review team member completed a conflict of interest statement at initiation.
“Each member of the review team also filled out a conflict of interest statement at the initiation of their involvement with the protocol to document any potential financial or other conflicts of interest, and these were appended to the protocol.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningReview authors decided beforehand that different air pollutant chemicals or classes should be analyzed separately.
“In particular, review authors had decided beforehand that different air pollutant chemicals or classes of compounds (i.e., heavy metals, pesticides, and criteria air pollutants) should be analyzed separately in the absence of empirical evidence to suggest that we could combine these effect estimates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningTwo review authors subsequently reviewed ratings for all included studies to ensure consistency across studies with similar populations or designs.
“Based on this discussion, two review authors (JL, EK) subsequently reviewed ratings for all included studies to ensure consistency across studies with similar study populations or study design.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataFour authors and a research assistant independently extracted data from all included articles.
“Four authors (ND, LD, PS, EK) and a UCSF research assistant (HT) independently extracted data relating to study characteristics and outcome measures (S3 Table) from all included articles into a DRAGON database.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenAn in-person meeting was held to review rationales and ratings for each study and come to consensus.
“We held an in-person meeting to review rationales and ratings for each study and come to consensus.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe Navigation Guide systematic review methodology is based on Cochrane/GRADE methods and includes the same elements but accounts for differences in environmental health assessments.
“The Navigation Guide systematic review methodology is based on Cochrane/GRADE methods [21, 22] and includes all the same elements (protocol, development, risk of bias evaluation, evidence evaluation, etc.) but accounts for the differences in evidence and decision context inherent to environmental health assessments”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [21] Higgins JPT, Green S. Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. Version 5.1.0 [Updated March 2011] 2011 [May 1, 2016]. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.cochrane-handbook.org" xlink:type="simple">www.cochrane-handbook.org</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [22] GH Guyatt, 2008, GRADE: an emerging consensus on rating quality of evidence and strength of recommendations, The BMJ source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe protocol was developed prior to initiating the study and registered in PROSPERO (CRD # 42015017890).
“registered in PROSPERO, CRD # 42015017890”
- Also stated in: § The Navigation Guide Systematic Review Methodology · plain
“We developed a protocol to outline the process for conducting the systematic review prior to initiating the study and registered the protocol with an international database for systematic reviews in March 2015.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Also stated in: § The Navigation Guide Systematic Review Methodology · plain
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataFull-text review was independently performed by two of five reviewers.
“Two of the five reviewers (ND, AH, AK, LD, GW) then independently performed a full-text review to evaluate inclusion criteria of each reference not excluded by title/abstract screening.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationReview authors were instructed to separately rate exposure assessment risk of bias for each air pollutant chemical or class.
“Review authors were instructed to separately rate the exposure assessment risk of bias for each air pollutant chemical or classes of chemicals reported in the study under review.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenReview authors who were coauthors of a study recused themselves from rating risk of bias for that study.
“In the event that one of the review authors was a coauthor of the study in question, they recused themselves from rating the risk of bias for that particular study.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationTo date, the Navigation Guide method has been used in 3 case studies.
“To date, the Navigation Guide method has been used in 3 case studies [25, 27, 28].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [25] J Lam, 2014, The Navigation Guide-evidence-based medicine meets environmental health: Integration of animal and human evidence for PFOA effects on fetal growth, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [27] HM Vesterinen, 2014, Fetal growth and maternal glomerular filtration rate: a systematic review, Journal of Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [28] PI Johnson, 2016, Application of the Navigation Guide Methodology: Systematic review of the evidence for developmental and reproductive toxicity of triclosan, Environment International
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningA novel risk of bias instruction for exposure assessment was developed specifying considerations such as modeling, monitoring, and biomarkers.
“we ultimately developed a novel risk of bias instructions for exposure assessment that specified a list of important considerations, i.e., modeling, monitoring, biomarkers, etc.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenThe search was not limited by language or start-date of publication.
“Our search was not limited by language or start-date of publication.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationRisk of bias was assessed using a modified instrument based on the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and AHRQ domains.
“We assessed risk of bias for each included study using a modified instrument we developed based on the Cochrane Collaboration’s “Risk of Bias” tool and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality’s (AHRQ) domains, i.e., selection bias, confounding, performance bias, attrition bias, detection bias, and reporting bias [21, 31].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [21] Higgins JPT, Green S. Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. Version 5.1.0 [Updated March 2011] 2011 [May 1, 2016]. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.cochrane-handbook.org" xlink:type="simple">www.cochrane-handbook.org</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [31] M Viswanathan, 2012, Assessing the Risk of Bias of Individual Studies in Systematic Reviews of Health Care Interventions, Assessing the Risk of Bias of Individual Studies in Systematic Reviews of Health Care Interventions
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataA third author performed QA/QC on all studies by reviewing the studies and extracted data to check for accuracy.
“A third author (JL) performed QA/QC on all of the studies by reviewing the studies and its extracted data to check for accuracy.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationPrenatal air pollution has been identified as having potentially greater impacts than adult exposures.
“prenatal air pollution has been identified as having potentially greater impacts than adult exposures [6].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] PJ Landrigan, 2005, Early environmental origins of neurodegenerative disease in later life, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataMany studies rated probably high, with one high, for potential confounding were due to failure to adjust for many important confounders established beforehand in the protocol.
“Many of the studies rated as “probably high” (with one “high”) for potential confounding were due to the failure to adjust for many of the important confounders that we had established beforehand in our protocol.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe majority of studies adjusted for maternal age, parental level of education, race/ethnicity, gender of child, household income, and some measure of socio-economic status.
“The majority of studies adjusted for maternal age, parental level of education, race/ethnicity, gender of child, household income, and some measure of socio-economic status.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataExposures were not directly measured, lacking biomarkers or individual measurement of air pollutants, but this was accounted for in the risk-of-bias rating and no other areas of concern existed for indirectness.
“Exposures were not directly measured (lacking biomarkers or individual measurement of air pollutants); however this was accounted for in the ROB rating and no other areas of concern existed for indirectness.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The risk-of-bias rating adequately accounts for the lack of direct exposure measurement, so no downgrade for indirectness is needed.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe OR = 1.03 needed to lose statistical significance for PM10 is reasonably within the range reported by existing studies, so a new study might easily shift interpretation of statistical significance; the OR = 0.44 needed to shift the overall effect to OR<1 seemed rather unlikely.
“The former OR estimate is reasonably within the range of that reported by existing studies (thus, it might be possibly for a new study to easily shift our interpretation of statistical significance of the overall effect estimate), but the OR required to shift the overall effect estimate to OR<1 seemed rather unlikely.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningWith more information, the observed effect could change, and this change may be large enough to alter the conclusion.
“With more information, the observed effect could change, and this change may be large enough to alter the conclusion.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningAlthough there was concern regarding the risk of bias domain, we did not judge this sufficient to warrant downgrading the evidence and therefore remained at the initial moderate rating.
“Ultimately, although there was concern regarding the risk of bias domain, we did not judge this to be sufficient enough to warrant downgrading the evidence and therefore remained at the initial “moderate” rating.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe OR = 1.02 needed to lose statistical significance for PM2.5 is outside the range reported by existing studies but not unreasonably so; the OR = 0.14 needed to shift the overall effect to OR<1 seems quite unlikely.
“The former OR estimate is outside the range of that reported by existing studies, but not unreasonably so; however, the OR required to shift the overall effect estimate to OR<1 seems quite unlikely.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationInitial exposure assessment risk of bias ratings for NATA data were assigned as probably low for higher confidence, probably high for medium confidence, and high for lower confidence.
““probably high” for those with “medium” confidence (i.e., coke oven emissions, vinyl chloride, chloroform, ethylene dibromide, etc.), and “high” for those with “lower” confidence (i.e., arsenic compounds, beryllium compounds, cadmium compounds, lead compounds, etc.).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [62] AS Rosenbaum, 1999, National estimates of outdoor air toxics concentrations, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [63] Environmental Protection Agency U.S. (US EPA). Limitations in the 1996 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment 2015. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://archive.epa.gov/airtoxics/nata/web/html/conf.html" xlink:type="simple">https://archive.epa.gov/airtoxics/nata/web/html/conf.html</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe central nervous system was proposed as another organ negatively affected by air pollutants.
“More recently, the central nervous system was proposed as another organ negatively affected by air pollutants [5]”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] G Oberdorster, 2002, Ultrafine particles in the urban air: to the respiratory tract—and beyond?, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe decision not to downgrade for publication bias was based on conducting a comprehensive search, finding grey literature, and finding studies of variable sizes, designs, and funding sources with similar findings.
“so we based our decision to not downgrade for publication bias on the fact that we conducted a comprehensive search, found studies from the grey literature, and found studies of variable sizes, designs, and funding sources that had similar findings.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationSystematic review methods have been used for decades in the clinical sciences.
“While systematic review methods have been used for decades in the clinical sciences [21, 22]”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [21] Higgins JPT, Green S. Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. Version 5.1.0 [Updated March 2011] 2011 [May 1, 2016]. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.cochrane-handbook.org" xlink:type="simple">www.cochrane-handbook.org</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [22] GH Guyatt, 2008, GRADE: an emerging consensus on rating quality of evidence and strength of recommendations, The BMJ source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationStudies in animals have found that developmental exposure to air pollution is related to functional and structural brain effects.
“Studies in animals have also found that developmental exposure to air pollution is related to functional and structural brain effects [11–15].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [11] L Calderon-Garciduenas, 2009, Effects of a cyclooxygenase-2 preferential inhibitor in young healthy dogs exposed to air pollution: a pilot study, Toxicologic Pathology source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [12] A Campbell, 2009, Particulate matter induced enhancement of inflammatory markers in the brains of apolipoprotein E knockout mice, Journal of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [13] ME Gerlofs-Nijland, 2010, Effect of prolonged exposure to diesel engine exhaust on proinflammatory markers in different regions of the rat brain, Particle and Fibre Toxicology source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [14] S Levesque, 2011, Diesel exhaust activates and primes microglia: air pollution, neuroinflammation, and regulation of dopaminergic neurotoxicity, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [15] D van Berlo, 2010, Comparative evaluation of the effects of short-term inhalation exposure to diesel engine exhaust on rat lung and brain, Archives of Toxicology source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningCollectively, these findings led to our conclusion that positive relationships were observed between air pollution exposures generally and ASD, but that chance, bias, and confounding could not be ruled out with reasonable confidence because of the limitations present in the available data.
“Collectively, these findings led to our conclusion that positive relationships were observed between air pollution exposures generally and ASD, but that chance, bias, and confounding could not be ruled out with reasonable confidence because of the limitations present in the available data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataOur review additionally included a meta-analysis, the results of which further demonstrated an association between air pollution, specifically PM, and ASD, but also revealed some uncertainties in the body of evidence that would not have been apparent except for the meta-analysis.
“However, our review additionally included a meta-analysis, the results of which further demonstrated an association between air pollution (PM) and ASD, but also revealed some uncertainties in the body of evidence that would not have been apparent except for the meta-analysis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningPossible study design characteristics differed among included studies, but it is difficult to assign an exact explanation for the observed heterogeneity in results.
“There are possible study design characteristics that differed (for instance, the availability and quality of individual home addresses to estimate individual-level exposures), but it is difficult to assign an exact explanation for the observed heterogeneity in results.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe available body of evidence on air pollution in general and ASD was wide, shallow, and except for PM, limited in its ability to strongly support a relationship if one exists.
“The available body of evidence on air pollution in general and ASD was wide, shallow, and except for PM, limited in their ability to strongly support a relationship if one exists.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningThis met our definition of limited evidence of toxicity for the association between early life exposure to air pollution generally and ASD.
“This met our definition of “limited evidence of toxicity” for the association between early life exposure to air pollution generally and ASD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThe observed pattern of a larger summary effect estimate for PM2.5 than for PM10 is not unexpected.
“this pattern of association is not unexpected.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningDue to the complexity of assessing risk of bias of air pollution exposure assessments, the authors developed a novel risk of bias tool and piloted its use for this study.
“Due to the complexity of assessing the risk of bias of air pollution exposure assessments, we developed a novel risk of bias tool and piloted its use for this study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe authors of the prior review rated evidence based on IARC classifications and concluded that there was sufficient evidence for an association of ASD with PM2.5.
“The authors of this review rated evidence based on IARC classifications and concluded that there was “sufficient” evidence for an association of ASD with PM2.5.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe only prior review of air pollutants and neuropsychological development that followed a prescribed systematic methodology was limited to published English language studies appearing during or after 2012 and did not include a meta-analysis.
“The only prior review of air pollutants and neuropsychological development that followed a prescribed systematic methodology was limited to published English language studies appearing during or after 2012 and did not include a meta-analysis [68].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [68] E Suades-González, 2015, Air pollution and neuropsychological development: a review of the latest evidence, Endocrinology source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThe Navigation Guide classifications are based largely on the IARC classifications.
“The Navigation Guide classifications are based largely on the IARC classifications.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationIdentifying the environmental contributors to ASD and neurodevelopment in general is a critical unmet clinical and public health need.
“Identifying the environmental contributors to ASD and neurodevelopment in general is a critical unmet clinical and public health need, as recognized by a recent consensus statement published by leading scientific and medical experts, along with children’s health advocates, which identifies the importance of environment as a risk factor for neurodevelopment [92].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [92] D Bennett, 2016, Project TENDR: Targeting Environmental Neuro-Developmental Risks The TENDR Consensus Statement, Environmental Health Perspectives source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenWithout the cooperation of individual study authors, it would have been impossible to complete the meta-analysis.
“Without the cooperation of individual study authors, it would have been impossible to complete the meta-analysis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe occurrence of heterogeneity that lacked a clear methodological rationale is suggestive of randomness in the available data, was concerning to review authors, and was influential in the final rating of limited overall evidence.
“Further the occurrence of heterogeneity that lacked a clear methodological rationale is suggestive of randomness in the available data, was concerning to review authors, and this was influential in our final rating of “limited” overall evidence.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataWhile the meta-analysis suggested statistically significant effects for PM, these were based on very few studies and sensitivity analysis suggested that even a single added study within the range of ORs reported to date could lead to a summary effect that did not attain statistical significance, although an extreme OR estimate would be required to change the direction of the overall effect to less
“While the meta-analysis suggested statistically significant effects for PM, these were based on very few studies and sensitivity analysis suggested that even a single added study within the range of ORs reported in the body of research to date could lead to a summary effect evidence that did not attain statistical significance (although an extreme OR estimate would be require to change the”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe strongest available evidence supported associations between PM and ASD, and this was supported by the results of the meta-analysis.
“We found the strongest available evidence was supporting associations between PM and ASD, which was supported by the results of our meta-analysis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningWith the exception of PM, where estimates could fairly easily be standardized, the body of evidence was disparate and largely not combinable.
“As such, with the exception of PM, where estimates could fairly easily be standardized, the body of evidence was disparate and largely not combinable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationSmaller particles have the ability to penetrate into the circulatory system and are thought to be more biologically active.
“Because smaller particles have the ability to penetrate into the circulatory system and are thought to be more biologically active [83–86]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [83] M Lippmann, 1980, Deposition, retention, and clearance of inhaled particles, British Journal of Industrial Medicine
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [84] TM De Kok, 2006, Toxicological assessment of ambient and traffic-related particulate matter: a review of recent studies, Mutation Research source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [85] N Englert, 2004, Fine particles and human health—a review of epidemiological studies, Toxicology Letters source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [86] M Kampa, 2008, Human health effects of air pollution, Environmental Pollution source
Not checked in the free run.
The paper relies on this without support.
A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence for the relationship between air pollution and ASD had been lacking.
“However, a systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence for the relationship between air pollution and ASD had been lacking.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The risk-of-bias rating adequately accounts for the lack of direct exposure measurement, so no downgrade for indirectness is needed.
“Exposures were not directly measured (lacking biomarkers or individual measurement of air pollutants); however this was accounted for in the ROB rating and no other areas of concern existed for indirectness.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The small number of studies (n = 3) in the meta-analysis and unexplained heterogeneity signified that the effect could be larger or smaller than those studies estimate.
“However, the small number of studies (n = 3) in the meta-analysis and unexplained heterogeneity signified that the effect could be larger or smaller than those studies estimate, supporting the need for additional research on PM2.5 exposure and ASD risk.”
From Air pollution and children’s health—a review of adverse effects associated with prenatal exposure from fine to ultrafine particulate matter (2021) · cites this paper as [26]
The systematic review concluded that modest evidence exists for the toxicity of air pollution during early development.
“concluding that modest evidence exists for the toxicity of air pollution during early development.”
From The contribution of environmental exposure to the etiology of autism spectrum disorder (2019) · cites this paper as [191]
Exposure to heavy metals can detrimentally impact many bodily functions, inducing neurological and behavioral impairment.
“Exposure to heavy metals can detrimentally impact many bodily functions, inducing neurological and behavioral impairment [191–195].”
From The contribution of environmental exposure to the etiology of autism spectrum disorder (2019) · cites this paper as [191]
A recent systematic review and meta-analysis of 23 studies reported ORs of 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.08) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 exposure (k=6) and 2.32 (95% CI 2.15-2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure (k=3) for autism.
“a recent systematic review and meta-analysis identifying 23 studies examining its association with autism reporting ORs of 1.07 (95% CI 1.06–1.08) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 exposure (k = 6 studies) and 2.32 (95% CI 2.15–2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure (k = 3 studies) [191]”
From The contribution of environmental exposure to the etiology of autism spectrum disorder (2019) · cites this paper as [191]
For heavy metals in ambient air, positive and statistically significant effects have been found, although the effects are generally small and not consistent.
“For heavy metals in ambient air, positive and statistically significant effects have been found, although the effects are generally small and not consistent [191].”
From The contribution of environmental exposure to the etiology of autism spectrum disorder (2019) · cites this paper as [191]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Claim that all study effects have OR below 2 conflicts with pooled PM2.5 result
MinorTable 3 says every study found an OR below 2, but the paper reports a pooled PM2.5 OR of 2.32. An inverse-variance-weighted pooled estimate above 2 cannot result if every constituent estimate is below 2.
“All of the studies found null or minimal effects only (i.e., OR<2).”
“Based on this clustered meta-analysis, we found a pooled effect estimate of OR = 2.32 (95% CI 2.15 to 2.51) per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 (Fig 4).”
Included-study publication years exclude a listed 2016 study
MinorThe text says all 23 included studies were published by 2015, but Table 2 lists Dickerson et al. 2016 as an included study.
“The 23 included studies were all published between the years 2006 to 2015”
“| Dickerson et al. 2016 [60] | Ecological |”
Strength-of-evidence rating cites the wrong table
MinorThe sentence points to Table 2 for the overall strength rating, but Table 2 contains study characteristics. The rating appears in Table 3.
“We rated the final overall strength of the evidence as “limited” (Table 2).”
“Table: Table 2 Characteristics of included human studies on air pollution and ASD, by publication date and study design.”
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Self-citationResidential Proximity to Freeways and Autism in the CHARGE Study
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InfluentialFine particulate matter and the risk of autism spectrum disorder
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National Estimates of Outdoor Air Toxics Concentrations
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“5), f Assigned by prenatal, pregnancy and birth residential address ASD cases identified based on Nurses’ Health Study II participant’s response to questionnaire, and validated by administration of the ADI-R to a random subset of case mothers Kalkbrenner et al. 2015 [44] Casecontrol Children born in North Carolina in…”
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“…using residence at the time of surveillance (8 years of age) ASD cases identified from records-based surveillance of children conducted by ADDM network Dickerson et al. 2016 [60] Ecological Children 8 years of age in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008 from Arizona, Maryland, New Jersey, South…”
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“Exposure to chemicals in air pollutionmay act through several potential pathophysiological mechanisms related to immune function, endocrine disruption, and epigenetic alterations [71].”
Fetal growth and maternal glomerular filtration rate: a systematic review
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“As with our previous systematic reviews, [24, 27, 28, 30], we found efficient ways to sort through a large number of studies captured through a broad search.”
InfluentialSelf-citationParental Occupational Exposures and Autism Spectrum Disorder
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“2012 [46] Casecontrol Children enrolled in the CHARGE study and born between 1998–2003 in California 93 children with ASD and 81 typically developing controls Self-reported and industrial hygienist-assessed parental occupational exposures to 49 chemical agents from three months prior to conception through to either bi…”
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“2013 [57] Casecontrol Children born in 1994 in 6 counties in the San Francisco Bay area 284 children with ASD and 659 controls Self-reported parental occupation on birth certificate, coded by occupational medicine-certified physician to categorize broad chemical exposures ASD cases ascertained from multi-source record…”
Self-citationThe value of ecologic studies: mercury concentration in ambient air and the risk of autism
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- Authors
- Lam, J., Sutton, P., Kalkbrenner, A., Windham, G., Halladay, A., Koustas, E., Lawler, C., Davidson, L., Daniels, N., Newschaffer, C., & Woodruff, T.
- Affiliations
- University of California, San Francisco (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee (US)
- California Department of Public Health (US)
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- Kaiser Permanente (US)
- Drexel University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lam, Juleen
- Venue
- PLOS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2016-09-21
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- e0161851
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5031428
- OpenAlex
- W2522738868
- Cited by
- 247
- References
- 93
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 2.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- public-domain
- creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (vor)
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- United States Environmental Protection Agency (P01 83543301)
- Autism Speaks (9337)
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (PO1ES022841)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Indoor Air Quality and Microbial Exposure
- Keywords
- autism spectrum disorder, air pollution, particulate matter, PM10, PM2.5, prenatal exposure, early life exposure, developmental neurotoxicity, pesticides, heavy metals, ambient air pollution
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-06.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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