Too many immigrants? Examining alternative forms of immigrant population innumeracy

Herda, Daniel

doi:10.1525/sop.2013.56.2.213

Cited by 54Migration, Refugees, and IntegrationPopulism, Right-Wing MovementsSocial and Intergroup Psychology

Too many immigrants? Examining alternative forms of immigrant population innumeracy

Herda, Daniel·2013·Sociological Perspectives

DOI 10.1525/sop.2013.56.2.213

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Abstract

The tendency to overestimate immigrant population sizes has garnered considerable scholarly attention for its potential link to anti-immigrant policy support. However, this existing innumeracy research has neglected other forms of ignorance, namely underestimation and nonresponse. Using the 2002 European Social Survey, the current study examines the full scope of innumeracy for the first time. Results indicate that underestimation and nonresponse occur commonly across twenty-one countries and that overestimation is far from ubiquitous. Nonresponders in particular are found to represent a distinct innumeracy form associated with low cognitive availability and high negative affect. Multilevel models indicate that underestimation associates with greater opposition to anti-immigrant policy, while overestimation and nonresponse associate with greater support. Much of these associations are explained by affective factors. However, significant under- and overestimation coefficients remain net of controls, suggesting that innumeracy may be more important than initially thought. Overall, the results highlight the multifaceted character of innumeracy.

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“On the issue of immigration, opponents perceive a larger share of foreign-born citizens in the population than proponents (Nadeau et al., 1993;Herda, 2013).”
From Factual belief polarization between Democrats and Republicans: source or epiphenomenon of ideological and affective polarization? (2024) · cites this paper as Herda, 2013
Uninformed citizens may use their political attitudes as a heuristic to fill gaps in their knowledge.
“Moreover, uninformed citizens may use their political attitudes as a heuristic to fill the gaps in their knowledge (Herda, 2013).”
From Factual belief polarization between Democrats and Republicans: source or epiphenomenon of ideological and affective polarization? (2024) · cites this paper as Herda, 2013

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Authors: Herda, D.
Affiliations: University of California, Davis (US)
Corresponding author: Herda, Daniel
ORCID: Herda, Daniel
Venue: Sociological Perspectives
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2013-06
Volume: 56
Issue: 2
Pages: 213-240
ISSN: 0731-1214 (ISSN-L)
1533-8673
DOI: 10.1525/sop.2013.56.2.213
OpenAlex: W2316062023
Cited by: 54
References: 77
Citations by year: 2026: 2 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 2 · 2013: 1
FWCI: 6.20
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations: Sociological Perspectives (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration, Refugees, and Integration
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
Keywords: nonresponse, immigration attitudes, emotional factors, cognitive availability, negative affect, European Social Survey

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Too many immigrants? Examining alternative forms of immigrant population innumeracy

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