The Dose–Response of Time Served in Prison on Mortality: New York State, 1989–2003
Open accessAbstract
Objectives. I investigated the differential impact of the dose–response of length of stay on postprison mortality among parolees. Methods. Using 1989–2003 New York State parole administrative data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics on state correctional facilities, I employed multinomial logistic regression analyses and formal demographic techniques that used the life table of the populations to deduce changes in life expectancy. Results. Each additional year in prison produced a 15.6% increase in the odds of death for parolees, which translated to a 2-year decline in life expectancy for each year served in prison. The risk was highest upon release from prison and declined over time. The time to recovery, or the lowest risk level, was approximately two thirds of the time served in prison. Conclusions. Incarceration reduces life span. Future research should investigate the pathways to this higher mortality and the possibilities of recovery.
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Each year of incarceration reduced life expectancy by two years in a cohort of New York parolees, most of whom had served less than two years incarcerated.
“By studying data from a cohort of New York parolees, most of whom had served less than two years incarcerated, Patterson (2013) found that each year of incarceration reduced life expectancy by two years.”
From Innocence Mortality Tax: The Impact of Wrongful Conviction on Lifespan (2023) · cites this paper as Patterson (2013)
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“And yet, one study of New York parolees found that individuals lost approximately two years of life for each year spent in prison (Patterson 2013).”
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“Patterson (Patterson, 2013) found an added two-year decrease in life expectancy for each year spent in prison.”
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Novisky, M. A., Prost, S. G., Fleury‐Steiner, B., & Testa, A. M. (2025) · Health & Justice · doi:10.1186/s40352-025-00331-x · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“One study found that for each year spent incarcerated, a 2-year reduction in total life span was expected (Patterson, 2013).”
The New Eugenics: Black Hyper-Incarceration and Human Abatement
Oleson, J. C. (2016) · Social Sciences · doi:10.3390/socsci5040066 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“Evelyn Patterson [107] found that in New York, every year spent in prison resulted in a 15.6% increase in the odds of death for parolees, translating to a two-year decline in life expectancy for each year served in prison.”
BackgroundInfluentialTime Well Spent: Misery, Meaning, and the Opportunity of Incarceration
Wright, K. A. (2020) · The Howard Journal of Crime and Justice · doi:10.1111/hojo.12352 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
A National Survey of Medical School Curricula on Criminal Justice and Health
Simon, L. E., & Tobey, M. L. (2019) · Journal of Correctional Health Care · doi:10.1177/1078345818820109 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Overincarceration of Indigenous people: a health crisis
Singh, D., Prowse, S., & Anderson, M. L. (2019) · Canadian Medical Association Journal · doi:10.1503/cmaj.181437 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Malcome, M., Fedock, G. L., Garthe, R. C., Golder, S., Higgins, G. E., & Logan, T. (2019) · Journal of Black Psychology · doi:10.1177/0095798419889755 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
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Mass Incarceration and Subsequent Preventive Health Care: Mechanisms and Racial/Ethnic Disparities
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Self-Perceived Health Improvements Among Prison Inmates
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“Incarceration is also linked to a decreased life expectancy (Patterson, 2013).”
BackgroundMortality in Prisons: The Experience of the Bureau of Legal Medicine of Milan (Italy) (1993–2017)
Gentile, G., Nicolazzo, M., Bianchi, R., Bailo, P., Boracchi, M., Tambuzzi, S., & Zoja, R. (2021) · Medicine Science and the Law · doi:10.1177/0025802420934266 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“It is well known that detention in prison can have a negative impact on life and can lead to a reduction in its duration: in particular, an increase of mortality up to 78% has been determined for those serving at least five years in prison and a loss of ten years on standard life expectancy is estimated by the age of…”
BackgroundReconstructive Justice — Public Health Policy to End Mass Incarceration
Reinhart, E. (2023) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmms2208239 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Prisoner exposure to nature: Benefits for wellbeing and citizenship
Reddon, J. R., & Durante, S. B. (2019) · Medical Hypotheses · doi:10.1016/j.mehy.2018.12.003 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Risk and implications of COVID‐19 among the community supervised population
Gutiérrez, C., & Patterson, E. J. (2021) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12563 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationSaloner, B. K., Li, W., Flores, M. W., Progovac, A. M., & Cook, B. L. (2023) · Health Affairs · doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2022.00901 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Suicidal Ideation of Probationers
Yu, S.-S. V., & Sung, H. (2015) · Crisis · doi:10.1027/0227-5910/a000336 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“Additionally, contact with the criminal justice system is related to suicide risk (Patterson, 2013; Webb et al., 2011).”
BackgroundArchibald, P., Parker, L. J., & Thorpe, R. J. (2017) · Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities · doi:10.1007/s40615-017-0382-9 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“Those pre-existing chronic conditions were worsened by the criminal justice contact and manifested into a 2-year decline in life expectancy for each year of being in contact with the criminal justice system [4].”
BackgroundEmerson, A., Lipnicky, A., Comfort, M. L., Lorvick, J., Cropsey, K. L., Smith, S., & Ramaswamy, M. (2021) · Journal of Aging and Health · doi:10.1177/08982643211025443 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Examining All-cause and Cause-specific Mortality among Former Prisoners in Pennsylvania
Testa, A. M., Porter, L. C., & Nakamura, K. (2017) · Justice Quarterly · doi:10.1080/07418825.2017.1341541 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, 80, 189-200.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialPhysician–Public Defender Collaboration — A New Medical–Legal Partnership
Vanjani, R., Martino, S., Reiger, S. F., Lawless, J., Kelly, C., Mariano, V. J., & Trimbur, M. C. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmms2002585 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Carceral Passages: Coming of Age in Prison America
Knight, D. J. (2024) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/729769 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
“Incarceration ’ s devastating effects on individual health and mortality, intergenerational inequality, and family well-being (Patterson 2013; Wake fi eld and Wildeman 2014) occur over time and can be described as forms of structural violence (Bourgois 2009).”
BackgroundPredictors of mortality within prison and after release among persons living with HIV in Indonesia
Culbert, G. J., Crawford, F. W., Murni, A., Waluyo, A. D., Bazazi, A. R., Sahar, J., & Altice, F. L. (2017) · Research and Reports in Tropical Medicine · doi:10.2147/rrtm.s126131 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Social determinants of health among Canadian inmates
Stewart, L. A., Nolan, A., Thompson, J. M., & Power, J. (2018) · International Journal of Prisoner Health · doi:10.1108/ijph-08-2016-0038 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“Furthermore, in some cases, incarceration itself, with the stressors of prison life, increased exposure to individuals with higher rates of infection, and continued risky behaviours while in correctional facilities, may contribute to generally poorer health of offenders (Awofeso, 2010; de Viggiani, 2006; Patterson, 20…”
BackgroundFrequency and Duration of Incarceration and Mortality Among US Veterans With and Without HIV
Hawks, L. C., McGinnis, K. A., Howell, B. A., Khan, M. R., Edelman, E. J., Justice, A. C., & Wang, E. A. (2020) · JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes · doi:10.1097/qai.0000000000002325 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
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Mortality after release from incarceration in New Zealand by gender: A national record linkage study
Cunningham, R., King, P. T., Telfer, K., Crengle, S. M., Carr, J., Stanley, J., Gibb, S., & Robson, B. (2022) · SSM - Population Health · doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101274 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“Studies show that mortality has a dose-response relationship with both length of time in prison (Patterson, 2013) and repeated short-term incarceration (Graham et al., 2015).”
BackgroundAge and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: a comparison of the prison and general population
Nowotny, K. M., Metheny, H., LeMasters, K. H., & Brinkley‐Rubinstein, L. (2022) · International Journal of Prisoner Health · doi:10.1108/ijph-08-2021-0069 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Criminal Justice Reform Is Health Care Reform
Haber, L. A., Boudin, C., & Williams, B. A. (2023) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2023.25005 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
The Positive Spaces Healthy Places Study Team, Bekele, T., Globerman, J., Watson, J. R., Hwang, S. W., Hambly, K., Koornstra, J. J., Walker, G., Bacon, J., & Rourke, S. B. (2018) · AIDS and Behavior · doi:10.1007/s10461-018-2040-6 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
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McNeeley, S., Clark, V. A., & Duwe, G. (2023) · Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.102059 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
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Carceral Devolution and the Transformation of Urban America
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Deaths in Custody and following Release
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“…of incarceration, number of incarceration episodes, marital status, and community supervision status, have been variably associated with mortality risk (Binswanger, Blatchford, Lindsay, & Stern, 2011; Kariminia, Law, Butler, Corben, et al., 2007; Patterson, 2013; Rosen, Schoenbach, & Wohl, 2008).”
Evaluation of an Interprofessional Student–Faculty Collaborative Clinic in a Jail
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“One year of incarceration represents a 2-year decline in life expectancy (Patterson, 2013).”
BackgroundHospital care while incarcerated: A tale of two policies
Haber, L. A., Kaiksow, F. A., Williams, B. A., & Crane, J. T. (2023) · Journal of Hospital Medicine · doi:10.1002/jhm.13223 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Mathematical analysis of crime dynamics in and out of prisons
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“In a separate study of individuals released from New York state prisons, each year of time spent in prison was associated with a 2-year decrease in life expectancy.(10)”
Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance Exposure Risks in US Carceral Facilities, 2022
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“Indeed, one study suggests that for every year spent in prison, overall life expectancy decreases by two years (Patterson, 2013).”
BackgroundHennepin County Adult Detention Center’s Response to a 2019 Hepatitis A Outbreak in Minnesota
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- Authors
- Patterson, E. J.
- Affiliations
- Vanderbilt University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Patterson, Evelyn J.
- ORCID
- Patterson, Evelyn J.
- Venue
- American Journal of Public Health
- Publisher
- American Public Health Association
- Published
- 2013-03
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 523-528
- ISSN
- 0090-0036 (ISSN-L)
- 1541-0048
- PMC
- PMC3673515
- OpenAlex
- W2102922912
- Cited by
- 228
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 48 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 4
- FWCI
- 28.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- American Journal of Public Health (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
- Keywords
- prison deaths, prison sentence length, parolees, post-release mortality, life expectancy, dose-response relationship, recidivism, prisons
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Female, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, New York, Prisoners, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Logistic Models, Survival Analysis, Young Adult
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