Predictors of dropout in a digital intervention for the prevention and treatment of depression in patients with chronic Back pain: secondary analysis of two randomized controlled trials
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Depression is a common comorbid condition in individuals with chronic back pain (CBP), leading to poorer treatment outcomes and increased medical complications. Digital interventions have demonstrated efficacy in the prevention and treatment of depression; however, high dropout rates are a major challenge, particularly in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to identify the predictors of dropout in a digital intervention for the treatment and prevention of depression in patients with comorbid CBP. We assessed which participant characteristics may be associated with dropout and whether intervention usage data could help improve the identification of individuals at risk of dropout early on in treatment. METHODS: Data were collected from 2 large-scale randomized controlled trials in which 253 patients with a diagnosis of CBP and major depressive disorder or subclinical depressive symptoms received a digital intervention for depression. In the first analysis, participants' baseline characteristics were examined as potential predictors of dropout. In the second analysis, we assessed the extent to which dropout could be predicted from a combination of participants' baseline characteristics and intervention usage variables following the completion of the first module. Dropout was defined as completing <6 modules. Analyses were conducted using logistic regression. RESULTS: : OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.13-2.23), medium versus high social support (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.25-7.33), and a higher number of days to module completion (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08) predicted a higher risk of dropout, whereas a self-reported negative event in the previous week was associated with a lower risk of dropout (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08-0.69). A model that combined baseline characteristics and intervention usage data generated the most accurate predictions (area under the receiver operating curve [AUC]=0.72) and was significantly more accurate than models based on baseline characteristics only (AUC=0.70) or intervention usage data only (AUC=0.61). We found no significant influence of pain, disability, or depression severity on dropout. CONCLUSIONS: Dropout can be predicted by participant baseline variables, and the inclusion of intervention usage variables may improve the prediction of dropout early on in treatment. Being able to identify individuals at high risk of dropout from digital health interventions could provide intervention developers and supporting clinicians with the ability to intervene early and prevent dropout from occurring.
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Dropout was associated with users' baseline characteristics and early engagement patterns, which also influence individuals' SE because the characteristics and patterns can shape users' confidence in their ability to engage with and successfully complete digital interventions.
“Moshe et al. [57] found that dropout was associated with users’ baseline characteristics and early engagement patterns, which also influence individuals’ SE because the characteristics and patterns can shape users’ confidence in their ability to engage with and successfully complete digital interventions.”
From Advancing Undergraduate Student Mental Healthcare of Social Anxiety Disorder: Evaluating the Acceptance of AR-Assisted Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Through TAM-Based Constructs. (2026) · cites this paper as [57]
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredWe estimated a 45% dropout and aim to achieve a sample size of 232 participants for a pooled analysis of 7 countries.
“To be on the safe side, considering the dropout rates in previous studies of digital interventions (Moshe et al., 2022) and mental health interventions in low- and middle-income countries (Fernández et al., 2021), we estimated a 45% dropout. Thus, we aim to achieve a sample size of 232 participants for a pooled analysis of 7 countries.”
From Internet-based self-administered intervention to reduce anxiety and depression symptomatology and improve well-being in 7 countries: protocol of a randomized control trial (2024) · cites this paper as Moshe et al., 2022
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JONSSON, T., Christrup, L. L., Højsted, J., Villesen, H. H., ALBJERG, T. H., Ravn‐Nielsen, L. V., & Sjøgren, P. (2010) · Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/j.1399-6576.2010.02329.x · Cited by 29 · cited 1× · see citing works
“This question may be particularly pertinent for these individuals as chronic pain and depression are often associated with reduced motivation to initiate or complete goal-directed tasks [35,36].”
Bremer, V., Chow, P. I., Funk, B., Thorndike, F. P., & Ritterband, L. M. (2020) · doi:10.2196/preprints.17738 · Cited by 29 · cited 5× · see citing works
“In a study of a self-help digital intervention for the treatment of insomnia, Bremer et al [46] identified individuals at risk of dropout with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.719 using a combination of baseline characteristics (eg, self-reported stress levels) and intervention…”
InfluentialLin, J., Sander, L., Paganini, S., Schlicker, S., Ebert, D., Berking, M., Bengel, J., Nobis, S., Lehr, D., Mittag, O., et al. (2017) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2016-015226 · Cited by 27 · cited 3× · see citing works
“Dropout was defined as completing 6 intervention modules, in accordance with the intervention developers [49,50].”
Predicting patient engagement in IAPT services: a statistical analysis of electronic health records
Davis, A., Smith, T. R., Talbot, J., Eldridge, C., & Betts, D. (2020) · Evidence-Based Mental Health · doi:10.1136/ebmental-2019-300133 · Cited by 26 · cited 1× · see citing works
“The same applies to baseline characteristics, where studies have shown that data obtained from electronic medical records may be used to identify those at risk of dropout during face-to-face therapy [74,75].”
Adherence to a web-based pre-treatment for phobias in outpatient clinics
Kok, R. N., Beekman, A. T. F., Cuijpers, P. J., & van Straten, A. (2017) · Internet Interventions · doi:10.1016/j.invent.2017.05.004 · Cited by 18 · cited 2× · see citing works
“Variables were chosen on the basis of previous research pointing to demonstrated or hypothetical relationships between the predictor variables and intervention adherence or dropout [32-34, 45, 46, The process variables included internet affinity, as measured by the Internet Affinity Scale.”
Sander, L., Rausch, L., & Baumeister, H. (2016) · Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1186/s13643-016-0209-5 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 74 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
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Understanding Adherence to Digital Health Technologies: Systematic Review of Predictive Factors
Figueiredo, T., Alcântara, L., Carrilho, J., Paúl, C., & Costa, E. M. (2025) · Journal of Medical Internet Research · doi:10.2196/77362 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“In these studies, increasing age was shown to positively influence adherence, negatively influence it [39,44,48,53,61,69,80,88], or have mixed effects [62].”
Idrees, A. R., Kraft, R., Mutter, A., Baumeister, H., Reichert, M., & Pryss, R. C. (2024) · PLOS Digital Health · doi:10.1371/journal.pdig.0000498 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Zantvoort, K., Isacsson, N. H., Funk, B., & Kaldo, V. (2024) · Digital Health · doi:10.1177/20552076241248920 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“30 21 Taking away an assumed 15% data for a holdout test set results in training data of 98 and 291 patients per single intervention.”
BackgroundInfluentialvan Doorn, M., Monsanto, A., Wang, C. L., Verfaillie, S. C. J., van Amelsvoort, T., Popma, A., Jaspers, M., Öry, F. G., Álvarez‐Jiménez, M., Gleeson, J., et al. (2023) · JMIR mhealth and uhealth · doi:10.2196/50636 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
“…have identified several predictors of dropout, such as psychosocial difficulties, symptom severity [99], being young, being male, the involvement of more than one therapist in treatment, having no history of psychiatric disorders [100], lower social support [101], and lower change motivation [102].”
BackgroundEffective Communication Supported by an App for Pregnant Women: Quantitative Longitudinal Study
Kötting, L., Anand-Kumar, V., Keller, F. M., Henschel, N. T., & Lippke, S. (2024) · JMIR Human Factors · doi:10.2196/48218 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“These findings match previous findings that identified age as a predictor of dropout from digital interventions [41,42].”
BackgroundResultSimon, L., Steinmetz, L., Bendig, E., Küchler, A., Riemann, D. W., Ebert, D. D., Spiegelhalder, K., & Baumeister, H. (2025) · International Journal of Clinical and Health Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.ijchp.2025.100598 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“Some evidence exists that both in insomnia (Bremer et al. 2020) and in other mental health areas, as in depression (Moshe et al. 2022), the time needed to complete the first module is associated with dropout.”
Dominguez-Rodriguez, A., Herdoiza-Arroyo, P. E., González-Ramírez, L. P., Martínez-Arriaga, R. J., Villarreal-Zegarra, D., Santos da Silva, A. C., González-Cantero, J. O., Vargas Salinas, V. S., S. Mensorio, M., Cisneros Hernández, A. A., et al. (2024) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1279847 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Days between sessions predict attrition in text-based internet intervention of Binge Eating Disorder
Linnet, J., Hertz, S. P. T., Jensen, E. S., Runge, E., Tarp, K., Holmberg, T. T., Mathiasen, K., & Lichtenstein, M. B. (2023) · Internet Interventions · doi:10.1016/j.invent.2023.100607 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Hall, S. S., Hall, C., Partlett, C., Jeayes, A., Rattu, N. R., Henshaw, H., Martin, J., & Shoesmith, E. (2026) · PLOS Digital Health · doi:10.1371/journal.pdig.0001466 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“The role of digital skills was only considered by the perspective piece [39] and 7/57 trials, typically in the form of assessing digital literacy/competence through self-report or purpose-built questionnaires [42,75,85,87,92].”
Iribarren, S., Rupp, J., Sprecher, J., Lutz, B. R., & Rubinstein, F. (2026) · PLOS Digital Health · doi:10.1371/journal.pdig.0001457 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“App use declined from 78% at 60 days to 50% at 180 days, which mirrors trends observed in other mobile health interventions [28,33].”
Martins, D. S., Bermúdez, M. B., Costa, M. D. A., Fleck, M. P., Salum, G. A., Dreher, C. B., & Manfro, G. G. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-81327-9 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Goethem, V. V., Dierickx, S., Matthys, O., Deliëns, L., Lapeire, L., Surmont, V. F. M., Geboes, K., Renard, V., Grøenvold, M., D’Alton, P., et al. (2025) · Telemedicine Journal and e-Health · doi:10.1089/tmj.2024.0101 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“24,45,46 While ICT-related reasons and digital competence do not influence trial participation and retention, future research into which factors do is required.”
Yoshioka, T., Goto, A., Mizushima, T., Suzuki, Y., Ueda, Y., Yagi, A., Sekine, M., Kudo, R., Garland, S. M., Kumarasamy, S., et al. (2025) · Journal of Medical Internet Research · doi:10.2196/67778 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Kronthaler, S. M., Kosman, E., Tissen‐Diabaté, T., Mühle, E., Weber-Schallauer, L., Pross, T., Karsten, M. M., Beier, K. M., & Hatzler, D. L. (2026) · Journal of Medical Internet Research · doi:10.2196/86042 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Being partnered has been identified as a risk factor for sexual dysfunction with distress [12], whereas being single has already been associated with higher dropout [81].”
Eicher, S., Fenski, F., Behr, S., Hammelrath, L., Boettcher, J., Schaeuffele, C., & Knaevelsrud, C. (2026) · npj Digital Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41746-026-02546-0 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Higher baseline symptom severity and lower quality of life are associated with increased dropout rates 23,45 .”
InfluentialSîrbu, V., Tomoiagă, C. T., & David, D. (2026) · International Journal of Human-Computer Interaction · doi:10.1080/10447318.2026.2641702 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Zhou, Z., Zhou, Y., Ouyang, B., Man, S. S., & Chan, A. H. S. (2026) · Healthcare · doi:10.3390/healthcare14131978
“Moshe et al. [57] found that dropout was associated with users’ baseline characteristics and early engagement patterns, which also influence individuals’ SE because the characteristics and patterns can shape users’ confidence in their ability to engage with and successfully complete digital…”
Yoshioka, T., Goto, A., Mizushima, T., Suzuki, Y., Ueda, Y., Yagi, A., Sekine, M., Kudo, R., Garland, S. M., Kumaresamy, S., et al. (2024) · doi:10.2196/preprints.67778
Meeting people where they are: Crowdsourcing goal-specific personalized wellness practices
Hidalgo, J. E., Kim, J., Llorin, J., Stanton, K., Cherian, J., Bloomfield, L. S. P., Fudolig, M. I., Price, M., Ha, J., Noble, N., et al. (2024) · PLOS Digital Health · doi:10.1371/journal.pdig.0000650 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Kim, M., Park, J. Y., & Chung, K. (2024) · doi:10.2196/preprints.70243
Hall, S. S., Hall, C. L., Partlett, C., Jeayes, A., Rattu, N. R., Henshaw, H., Martin, J. L., & Shoesmith, E. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-7565290/v1
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Tong, L., Panagiotopoulou, O.-M., Miguel, C., Harrer, M., Amarnath, A., Čihařová, M., Gemmill, A. W., Salamanca-Sanabria, A., Williams, A. D., Fonseca, A., et al. (2026) · Nature Mental Health · doi:10.1038/s44220-026-00707-4
“These findings replicated previous research that younger adults 13,18 , male participants 18 and individuals with lower education attainment exhibited reduced adherence to internet-based interventions 13,14,18 .”
Gerhardt, U., & Kreuzenbeck, C. C. J. (2026) · AI & Society · doi:10.1007/s00146-026-03264-7
“Regarding age, they found a concave relationship with adherence, as already described by Moshe et al. (2022).”
Alvarabie, R., Burjawi, E., & Xiao, J. (2026) · Health Science Reports · doi:10.1002/hsr2.73038
“Interventions lasted from 6 [20] to 8 weeks [18], with 2 [20] to 3 [19] sessions per week, each around 20 min [21], typically preceded by an induction phase and followed by structured activity.”
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- Authors
- Moshe, I., Terhorst, Y., Paganini, S., Schlicker, S., Pulkki-Råback, L., Baumeister, H., Sander, L. B., & Ebert, D. D.
- Affiliations
- University of Helsinki (FI)
- Universität Ulm (DE)
- University of Freiburg (DE)
- Technical University of Munich (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Moshe, Isaac
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Medical Internet Research
- Publisher
- JMIR Publications Inc.
- Published
- 2022-08-30
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- e38261
- ISSN
- 1438-8871 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9472049
- OpenAlex
- W4293575236
- Cited by
- 28
- References
- 74
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 2
- FWCI
- 3.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Journal of Medical Internet Research (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
- mediaTUM (Technical University of Munich) (submittedVersion)
- mediaTUM (Technical University of Munich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Suomen Kulttuurirahasto
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Digital Mental Health Interventions
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology › Musculoskeletal pain and rehabilitation
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Mobile Health and mHealth Applications
- Keywords
- student dropout prediction, digital interventions, depression, chronic back pain, major depressive disorder, subclinical depressive symptoms, social support, causes of dropout, digital mental health, comorbidities
- MeSH terms
- Back Pain, Child, Preschool, Depression, Depressive Disorder, Major, Major Depressive Disorder, Humans, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Treatment Outcome
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