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“Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms.”
Abstract
I. Are there uncertainties that are not risks? 643. — II. Uncertainties that are not risks, 647. — III. Why are some uncertainties not risks? — 656.
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“While it is inappropriate to translate uncertainty about quantities into single-point estimates, it is the proper way to treat uncertainty about probabilities.”
From The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (2018) · cites this paper as Ellsberg (1961)
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Metadata
- Authors
- Ellsberg, D.
- Affiliations
- RAND Corporation (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ellsberg, Daniel
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1961-11
- Volume
- 75
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 643
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2027047704
- Cited by
- 7,891
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 251 · 2025: 359 · 2024: 309 · 2023: 319 · 2022: 330 · 2021: 380 · 2020: 340 · 2019: 351 · 2018: 367 · 2017: 311 · 2016: 345 · 2015: 384 · 2014: 346 · 2013: 321 · 2012: 348
- FWCI
- 0.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Keywords
- risk, ambiguity, Savage axioms, expected utility theory, decision making under uncertainty, ambiguity aversion, subjective probability
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