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Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression
Open accessAbstract
CONTEXT: Most environmental risk factors for psychiatric disorders cannot be studied experimentally, making causal attributions difficult. Can we address this question by using together 2 major methods for causal inference: natural experiments and specialized statistical methods? OBJECTIVE: To determine the causal relationship between dependent stressful life events (dSLEs) and prior depressive episodes (PDEs) and major depression (MD). DESIGN: Assessment of risk factors and episodes of MD at interview. Statistical analyses used the co-twin control and propensity score-matching methods. SETTING: General community. PARTICIPANTS: Four thousand nine hundred ten male and female twins from the Virginia Adult Twin Study of Psychiatric and Substance Use Disorders. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Episodes of MD. RESULTS: We found that dSLEs were strongly associated with risk for MD in female (odds ratio [OR], 5.85) and male (4.55) twins in the entire sample and, at considerably lower levels, in female (2.29) and male (2.19) monozygotic twins discordant for dSLE exposure. A case-control sample matched on propensity score showed a moderate association in female (OR, 1.79) and male (1.53) twins. A PDE strongly predicted risk for MD in female (OR, 3.68) and male (5.20) twins in the entire sample. In monozygotic pairs discordant for exposure, the association was weaker in male (OR, 1.41) and absent in female (1.00) twins. A case-control sample matched on propensity score showed a moderate association between PDE and depressive episodes in male (OR, 1.58) and female twins (1.66). CONCLUSIONS: Although dSLEs have a modest causal effect on the risk for MD, a large proportion of the observed association is noncausal. The same pattern is seen for PDEs, although the causal impact is somewhat more tenuous. For environmental exposures in psychiatry that cannot be studied experimentally, co-twin control and propensity scoring methods--which have complementary strengths and weaknesses--can provide similar results, suggesting their joint use can help with the critical question of causal inference.
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TL;DR
Using 4,910 twins from the Virginia Adult Twin Study, the authors applied co-twin control and propensity-score matching to test whether dependent stressful life events (dSLEs) and prior depressive episodes (PDEs) causally increase risk for major depression (MD). Both exposures showed strong overall associations, but the causal effects were modest for dSLEs and weaker/more tentative for PDEs, with much of the association judged noncausal.
Key findings
- dSLEs predicted MD in the entire sample (female OR 5.85; male OR 4.55), but the association fell in monozygotic twins discordant for dSLE exposure (female OR 2.29; male OR 2.19) and in propensity-score-matched samples (female OR 1.79; male OR 1.53).
- PDEs predicted MD in the entire sample (female OR 3.68; male OR 5.20), but the association weakened in discordant monozygotic twins (male OR 1.41; female OR 1.00) and was moderate in propensity-score-matched samples (male OR 1.58; female OR 1.66).
- The authors conclude dSLEs have a modest causal effect on MD risk, while a large proportion of the observed association is noncausal; the same pattern appears for PDEs, though the causal impact is “somewhat more tenuous.”
Methods
- Participants were 4,910 male and female twins from the Virginia Adult Twin Study of Psychiatric and Substance Use Disorders; same-sex female-female and male-male pairs were analyzed separately.
- Risk factors were dSLEs (interviewer-rated probably/clearly dependent events) and PDEs; MD episodes were assessed by DSM-IV criteria, with dSLE-MD analyses examining onset within 3 months and PDE analyses using MM1/FF1 episodes to predict MM2/FF2 episodes.
- Causal inference used co-twin control (twin pairs discordant for exposure, by zygosity) and propensity-score matching with 18 covariates for dSLE and 10 for PDE; analyses used logistic regression, multiple imputation, 90% CIs, and 1-tailed P values.
Limitations
- Stated: power was limited, especially for discordant twin analyses and the rarer PDE exposure; low power may contribute to the lack of more definitive findings.
- Stated: both methods assess a risk factor’s impact given the study population’s background exposures; a risk factor potent only in the presence of an uncommon background factor would typically produce a weak overall effect.
- Evident from the text: the design is observational; co-twin control does not control environmental experiences unique to one twin, and propensity matching can over- or under-control covariates. Also, PDE propensity analyses had limited overlap (mean C statistics 0.840 in male and 0.857 in female twins), which the authors call higher than ideal.
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33 Own result · 30 Own method · 20 Own interpretation · 11 No basis given · 6 No full text of the sources · 4 Not checked yet · 1 Not supported · accuracy not yet measured
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the association between PDEs and depressive episode onset was considerably lower in discordant DZ pairs (OR, 2.31; 90% CI, 0.96–5.91; P=.06)”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelationaln = 119- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A case-control sample matched on propensity score showed a moderate association between PDE and depressive episodes in male (OR, 1.58) and female twins (1.66).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“in female (2.29) and male (2.19) monozygotic twins discordant for dSLE exposure”
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · plain
“lower still in discordant MZ pairs (2.19; 1.25–3.93; P=.01)”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Compared with the results in the entire sample, the association between a PDE and a subsequent depressive episode was considerably lower in discordant DZ pairs (OR, 2.04; 90% CI, 0.97–4.47; P=.06) and disappeared entirely in discordant MZ pairs (1.00; 0.45–2.23; P=.99).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plainn = 132- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In monozygotic pairs discordant for exposure, the association was weaker in male (OR, 1.41) and absent in female (1.00) twins.”
- Also stated in: § PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES · plain
“lower still in discordant MZ pairs (1.41; 0.64–3.14; P=.24).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
plaincorrelationaln = 119- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In that sample, exposure to a PDE was strongly associated with the occurrence of 1 or more PDE onsets in the year before the FF4 interview (OR, 3.68; 90% CI, 2.66–5.04; P<.001).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
boostedcorrelationaln = 2,002 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A PDE strongly predicted risk for MD in female (OR, 3.68) and male (5.20) twins in the entire sample.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The OR between PDE exposure and a depressive outcome in this analysis was 1.58 (90% CI, 0.87–2.88; P=.10).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelationaln = 162- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the association between dSLE exposure and depressive episode onset was considerably lower but remained significant in discordant DZ pairs (OR, 3.23; 90% CI, 1.30–8.85; P=.02)”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plaincorrelationaln = 108 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Compared with observations in the entire sample, the association between dSLE exposure and depressive episode onset was still statistically significant but considerably lower in magnitude in discordant DZ pairs (OR, 3.31; 90% CI, 1.54–7.84; P=.004)”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In monozygotic pairs discordant for exposure, the association was weaker in male (OR, 1.41) and absent in female (1.00) twins.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Compared with the results in the entire sample, the association between a PDE and a subsequent depressive episode was considerably lower in discordant DZ pairs (OR, 2.04; 90% CI, 0.97–4.47; P=.06) and disappeared entirely in discordant MZ pairs (1.00; 0.45–2.23; P=.99).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelationaln = 132- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The OR between exposure to a PDE and a subsequent depressive episode in this analysis was 1.66 (90% CI, 0.95–2.89; P=.07).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelationaln = 184- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A case-control sample matched on propensity score showed a moderate association in female (OR, 1.79) and male (1.53) twins.”
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · plain
“The OR between dSLE exposure and a depressive outcome in this analysis was 1.53 (90% CI, 1.24–1.88; P<.001).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
plaincorrelationaln = 496 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“dSLEs were strongly associated with risk for MD in female (odds ratio [OR], 5.85) and male (4.55) twins in the entire sample”
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · boosted
“Exposure to a dSLE was strongly associated with an onset of MD within 3 months (OR, 4.55; 90% CI, 3.49–5.90; P<.001)”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
boostedcorrelationaln = 2,394 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · boosted
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“in female (2.29) and male (2.19) monozygotic twins discordant for dSLE exposure”
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · plain
“lower still in discordant MZ pairs (2.29; 1.02–5.44; P=.05)”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
plaincorrelationaln = 108 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A case-control sample matched on propensity score showed a moderate association between PDE and depressive episodes in male (OR, 1.58) and female twins (1.66).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“dSLEs were strongly associated with risk for MD in female (odds ratio [OR], 5.85) and male (4.55) twins in the entire sample”
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · boosted
“In this entire sample, exposure to a dSLE was strongly associated with an onset of MD within 3 months (OR, 5.85; 90% CI, 4.22–8.06; P<.001).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
boostedcorrelationaln = 1,938 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · boosted
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A PDE strongly predicted risk for MD in female (OR, 3.68) and male (5.20) twins in the entire sample.”
- Also stated in: § PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES · boosted
“exposure to a PDE in the year before the MM1 interview was strongly associated with the occurrence of 1 or more depressive episodes in the year before the MM2 interview (OR, 5.20; 90% CI, 3.67–7.27; P<.001).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
boostedcorrelationaln = 2,908 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES · boosted
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our propensity analysis produced a mean C statistic of 0.857, again indicating potential problems due to the limited overlap of the propensity score distribution of the exposed and unexposed twins.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plainn = 184- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For male and female twins, the CIs for our 2 best estimates of causal effect overlapped in the range of 1.2 to 1.9 and 1.3 to 2.4, respectively.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The PDEs recorded at our FF1 interviews strongly predicted risk for depressive episodes assessed at our FF2 interviews.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indeed, when we examined DZ and MZ twin pairs discordant for PDE exposure, the association with MD fell sharply from that seen in the general population.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indeed, the occurrence of dSLEs was strongly related to the risk for MD episodes in our entire sample in both male and female twins.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both results approached statistical significance (P values of .07 and .10).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although the OR produced by the propensity score method was lower in both male and female twins than that obtained using the co-twin control method in MZ pairs, these 2 estimates of causal effect had widely overlapping CIs in both sexes.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As expected, the OR was lower in the MZ than in the DZ pairs given that the former controls entirely for genetic risk factors.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, the results of the propensity analysis of the PDE-MD relationship were somewhat stronger than those obtained from the co-twin control analyses.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although the OR produced by the propensity score method was lower in both male and female twins than that obtained using the co-twin control method in MZ pairs, these 2 estimates of causal effect had widely overlapping CIs in both sexes.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“No covariate imbalance was found in these cases and controls (Table 2).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plainn = 162- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Many factors predispose to both dSLEs and MD, including neuroticism, PDEs, and genetic risk for MD.16–21”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [16] Hammen C Generation of stress in the course of unipolar depression J Abnorm Psychol 1991 100 4 555 561 1757669 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [17] Kendler KS Gardner CO Prescott CA Personality and the experience of environmental adversity Psychol Med 2003 33 7 1193 1202 14580074 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [18] Kendler KS Karkowski-Shuman L Stressful life events and genetic liability to major depression: genetic control of exposure to the environment? Psychol Med 1997 27 3 539 547 9153675 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [19] Kercher AJ Rapee RM Schniering CA Neuroticism, life events and negative thoughts in the development of depression in adolescent girls J Abnorm Child Psychol 2009 37 7 903 915 19437113 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [20] Hammen C Stress generation in depression: reflections on origins, research, and future directions J Clin Psychol 2006 62 9 1065 1082 16810666 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [21] Harkness KL Stewart JG Symptom specificity and the prospective generation of life events in adolescence J Abnorm Psychol 2009 118 2 278 287 19413403 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For MZ pairs, these were a history of MD, neuroticism, self-esteem, marital quality, and SLEs.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelationaln = 119- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The MZ pairs discordant for dSLE exposure were much better matched than the 2 previous groups, having a covariate imbalance on only the variable of marital quality.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Exposed and unexposed twins were poorly matched, with covariate imbalance on the following 8 variables: a history of MD, neuroticism, social support, self-esteem, marital quality, SLEs, difficulties, and parental warmth.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the DZ pairs discordant for dSLE exposure were better matched than the entire sample but still had covariate imbalance on the following 6 variables: parental warmth, neuroticism, self-esteem, history of divorce, history of MD before the past year, and marital quality.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“We specifically studied dSLEs because their causal relationship with psychiatric illness is inherently unclear and their association with MD is typically stronger than that observed for independent SLEs.11,12”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Kendler KS Gardner CO Prescott CA Toward a comprehensive developmental model for major depression in women Am J Psychiatry 2002 159 7 1133 1145 12091191 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [12] Kendler KS Gardner CO Prescott CA Toward a comprehensive developmental model for major depression in men Am J Psychiatry 2006 163 1 115 124 16390898 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The selected case-control sample demonstrated no covariate imbalance.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plainn = 155- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Exposed and unexposed participants were again poorly matched, demonstrating covariate imbalance on the following 8 variables: parental loss, conduct disorder, lifetime traumas, alcohol abuse/dependence, illicit drug abuse/dependence, marital quality, difficulties, and birth year.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
boostedn = 1,938- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Interrater reliability (κ) values for the occurrence and dating of our SLE categories were 0.93 and 0.82, respectively.30”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > METHODS > MEASUREMENTS
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [30] Kendler KS Kessler RC Walters EE MacLean C Neale MC Heath AC Eaves LJ Stressful life events, genetic liability, and onset of an episode of major depression in women Am J Psychiatry 1995 152 6 833 842 7755111 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For DZ pairs, these variables were neuroticism, self-esteem, marital quality, SLEs, and difficulties.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelationaln = 119- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“exposed and unexposed twins in this sample were poorly matched, having covariate imbalance on the following 10 variables: a history of MD, neuroticism, childhood sexual abuse, social support, self-esteem, marital quality, SLEs, difficulties, parental warmth, and birth year.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plainn = 2,908- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The MZ pairs discordant for dSLE exposure were even better matched, with covariate imbalance only on marital quality.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plainn = 108- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The case-control sample created by our propensity analysis had no covariate imbalance (Table 1).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plainn = 496- Asserted: unclear — It is unclear whether the authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The DZ pairs discordant for dSLE exposure had covariate imbalance on the following 3 variables: self-esteem, illicit drug abuse/dependence, and marital quality.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plaincorrelationaln = 108- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, propensity matching can also overcontrol for variables and thereby downwardly bias causal effects.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In our set of covariates, those exposed to PDEs differed even more greatly than was seen with the dSLEs.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If assessment of a covariate is influenced by risk factor exposure, this could produce an underestimation of the causal effects of the risk factor.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Covariates used in propensity matching must be causes and not consequences of risk factor exposure.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As might be expected, this proved harder to control for, as evidenced by the larger number of covariate imbalances seen in our MZ twins discordant for PDEs.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All risk factors falling into these 2 categories, including those we do not know about, are well controlled.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Applying examples of the 2 major available approaches (twins as a natural experiment and propensity scoring as a statistical method), we obtained reassuringly similar answers.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > CONCLUSIONS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, environmental experiences unique to 1 member of the pair are not controlled for by this method.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In participants matched for family background and partially (DZ pairs) or completely (MZ pairs) for genes, dSLE remained predictive of depressive episodes.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given that the effect of risk for MD observed in our propensity analysis of PDEs was very similar to that seen for dSLEs, our less definitive results for PDEs may stem from the lower frequency of this risk factor and the concomitant reduction in statistical power.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By contrast, PDEs are a more endogenous variable, reflecting internal vulnerabilities to depressive illness.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If such experiences influence the risk factors and the outcome, the co-twin control method could overestimate causal effects.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given these results and the fact that the risk factor and outcome variables were the same (ie, both are episodes of MD) and should share most predictors, the a priori probability that the observed association might be substantially noncausal is particularly high.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The risk factor and outcome variables for PDEs are the same (both are episodes of MD) and should share most predictors.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, our propensity analysis of dSLEs used neuroticism that was measured before dSLE exposure.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both methods also agree broadly with the more tenuous evidence of a modest causal effect on risk for MD of PDEs.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, despite our large sample size, power was limited, especially for the discordant twin analyses and with the rarer risk factor of PDEs.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, MZ twins discordant for exposure to PDEs differed from each other on our covariates much more than those pairs discordant for dSLE exposure.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, a direct causal effect probably exists.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In our detailed set of covariates, those exposed to dSLEs (cases) frequently differed from those who were unexposed (controls), immediately raising concern that the association between dSLEs and subsequent depressive episodes may not be entirely causal and may instead be at least partly mediated via these covariates along paths a and b in Figure 1.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In participants matched completely for family background and partially (DZ pairs) or completely (MZ pairs) for genes, the evidence that PDEs are causally related to future MD episodes is modest and statistically inconclusive.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From both analyses, it is clear that a large proportion of the substantial association between PDEs and subsequent depressive episodes is not causal.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 25
- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- The quote only partly states this claim. 3
At least one cited source doesn’t support this claim or points to a different paper, and none confirmed it — see the verdicts below.
In the paper
“Increased rates of MD follow dSLEs7–9 and PDEs.10–12”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Disputedcites [7] Williamson DE Birmaher B Anderson BP al-Shabbout M Ryan ND Stressful life events in depressed adolescents: the role of dependent events during the depressive episode J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 1995 34 5 591 598 7775354 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The source is cited for the dSLE portion of the sentence, not the prior-depressive-episode portion. Its Abstract reports that depressed adolescents had more dependent stressful life events; the Discussion says most assessed events occurred during an existing depressive episode and that the study could not determine whether events preceded depression onset. It therefore does not support the claimed direction that increased rates of major depression follow dSLEs. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [8] Kessler RC The effects of stressful life events on depression Annu Rev Psychol 1997 48 191 214 9046559 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [9] Surtees PG Miller PM Ingham JG Kreitman NB Rennie D Sashidharan SP Life events and the onset of affective disorder: a longitudinal general population study J Affect Disord 1986 10 1 37 50 2939122 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [10] Sjöholm L Lavebratt C Forsell Y A multifactorial developmental model for the etiology of major depression in a population-based sample J Affect Disord 2009 113 1–2 66 76 18558436 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Kendler KS Gardner CO Prescott CA Toward a comprehensive developmental model for major depression in women Am J Psychiatry 2002 159 7 1133 1145 12091191 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [12] Kendler KS Gardner CO Prescott CA Toward a comprehensive developmental model for major depression in men Am J Psychiatry 2006 163 1 115 124 16390898 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Disputed
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our propensity score analysis produced a mean C statistic of 0.840, which is higher than ideal.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plainn = 162- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A case-control sample matched on propensity score showed a moderate association in female (OR, 1.79) and male (1.53) twins.”
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · plain
“The OR between dSLE exposure and a depressive outcome in this sample was 1.79 (90% CI, 1.33–2.41; P=.001).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Results
plaincorrelationaln = 155 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When we examined DZ and MZ twin pairs discordant for dSLE exposure, the association with MD fell substantially but remained statistically significant in both groups.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The OR observed in the propensity score analysis was similar and statistically significant in both male and female twins but also substantially lower than that observed in the general population.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“None of the 4 resulting analyses (2 twin types in male and female twins) achieved statistical significance, although 2 of them produced trends suggesting a causal relationship.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The same pattern is seen for PDEs, although the causal impact is somewhat more tenuous.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Conclusions
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Twin pairs raised together are matched for their rearing environment and their genes (partly for dizygotic and completely for monozygotic pairs) although not for environmental experiences unique to each twin.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although dSLEs have a modest causal effect on the risk for MD, a large proportion of the observed association is noncausal.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Twin pairs raised together are matched for their rearing environment and their genes (partly for dizygotic and completely for monozygotic pairs) although not for environmental experiences unique to each twin.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we obtained a mean C statistic across the 10 imputations of 0.711, which indicates a good degree of overlap in propensity scores between the exposed and unexposed groups.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
hedgedn = 496- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
In the paper
“Zygosity was determined by discriminate function analyses using “twin questions” validated against DNA genotyping.28”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > METHODS > SAMPLE
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [28] Kendler KS Prescott CA A population-based twin study of lifetime major depression in men and women [published correction appears in Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2000;57(1):94–95] Arch Gen Psychiatry 1999 56 1 39 44 9892254 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our propensity analysis achieved a mean C statistic of 0.713, indicating a substantial degree of overlap in propensity scores between cases and controls.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
hedgedn = 155- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The DZ and MZ pairs discordant for a PDE in the year before our FF1 interview had covariate imbalance on 4 variables: a history of MD, neuroticism, self-esteem, and SLEs for DZ pairs and neuroticism, self-esteem, marital quality, and SLEs for MZ pairs.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plaincorrelationaln = 132- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we were successful in obtaining matched controls for a mean of 160.3 of 162 cases.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plainn = 162- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“We created 10 imputed data sets for analysis, and the results were combined with estimates and standard errors calculated as described by Rubin51 and Li et al.52”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > METHODS > STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Rubin51
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked yetcites Li et al. [52] Li KH Raghunathan TE Rubin DB Large-sample significance levels from multiply imputed data using moment-based statistics and an F-reference distribution J Am Stat Assoc 1991 86 416 1065 1073
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Confidence intervals and P values are based on profile likelihoods.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > METHODS > STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For environmental exposures in psychiatry that cannot be studied experimentally, co-twin control and propensity scoring methods—which have complementary strengths and weaknesses—can provide similar results, suggesting their joint use can help with the critical question of causal inference.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Conclusions
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Twin pairs raised together are matched for their rearing environment and their genes (partly for dizygotic and completely for monozygotic pairs) although not for environmental experiences unique to each twin.
In the paper
“Using the Spearman correlation (rs) and weighted kappa (κ),31 we determined the test-retest and interrater reliabilities to be rs=0.77/κ=0.63 and rs=0.89/κ=0.79, respectively.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > METHODS > MEASUREMENTS
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [31] Fleiss JS Cohen J Everett BS Large sample standard errors of kappa and weighted kappa Psychol Bull 1969 72 323 327
plainn = 191- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because of clear a priori expectations that dSLEs and PDEs should increase the risk for MD, we present 1-tailed P values and 90% confidence intervals (CIs).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > METHODS > STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We repeated all analyses in our matched samples using conditional logistic regression and found very similar results.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > METHODS > STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indeed, we obtained, on average across our 10 iterations, matched controls for 170.2 of the 184 cases, with no covariate imbalance between the 2 groups.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plainn = 184- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“As articulated by the counterfactual/interventionist theories of causation,13–15 if the association is causal, reducing risk factor exposure will reduce rates of disease. If the association is noncausal, altering risk factor exposure will not affect illness rates.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [13] Kendler KS Campbell J Interventionist causal models in psychiatry: repositioning the mind-body problem Psychol Med 2009 39 6 881 887 18845010 source
- Not checked yetcites [14] Woodward J Making Things Happen 2003 New York, NY Oxford University Press
- Not checked yetcites [15] Pearl J Causality Models, Reasoning, and Inference 2000 Cambridge, England Cambridge University Press
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Because numerous risk factors for MD—including genes and childhood adversities—have long-lasting effects,11,12,22,23 the tendency for MD to recur could arise without one depressive episode having a causal effect on the next.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > Abstract > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Kendler KS Gardner CO Prescott CA Toward a comprehensive developmental model for major depression in women Am J Psychiatry 2002 159 7 1133 1145 12091191 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [12] Kendler KS Gardner CO Prescott CA Toward a comprehensive developmental model for major depression in men Am J Psychiatry 2006 163 1 115 124 16390898 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [22] Kendler KS Neale MC Kessler RC Heath AC Eaves LJ A longitudinal twin study of 1-year prevalence of major depression in women Arch Gen Psychiatry 1993 50 11 843 852 8215810 source
- Not checked yetcites [23] Fergusson DM Mullen PE Childhood Sexual Abuse: An Evidence Based Perspective 1999 Thousand Oaks, CA Sage Publications Inc
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The congruence of these findings substantially increases the probability of their veracity.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our propensity method worked well in obtaining matched controls for our exposed cases and produced ORs that were modest and similar in male and female twins (1.6–1.7).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both sexes, these 2 methods have produced broadly similar results showing a moderate causal impact of dSLEs on risk for MD.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, the co-twin control and propensity analyses assess the impact of a risk factor given the background exposures of the study population.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although this is not realistic for any behavioral outcome, our longitudinal twin cohort has a particularly rich set of depression-related risk factors.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although the observed associations were largely noncausal, a moderate causal effect of dSLEs on MD was convincingly demonstrated, whereas the causal impact of PDEs was somewhat weaker and more tentative.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > CONCLUSIONS
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“This interpretation is consistent with previous analyses in this11,12 and other10 samples in which, in the presence of many covariates, PDEs modestly predict risk for future depressive episodes.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Kendler KS Gardner CO Prescott CA Toward a comprehensive developmental model for major depression in women Am J Psychiatry 2002 159 7 1133 1145 12091191 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [12] Kendler KS Gardner CO Prescott CA Toward a comprehensive developmental model for major depression in men Am J Psychiatry 2006 163 1 115 124 16390898 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [10] Sjöholm L Lavebratt C Forsell Y A multifactorial developmental model for the etiology of major depression in a population-based sample J Affect Disord 2009 113 1–2 66 76 18558436 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The co-twin control method provides excellent matching for all shared environmental exposures and, for MZ twins, all genes.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The co-twin control and propensity analyses each suggest that dSLEs have a moderate true causal effect on the risk for MD.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our propensity method worked as expected in obtaining controls well matched to our cases.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of interest, MZ twin pairs discordant for dSLE exposure were very similar on our covariates, differing in male and female twins only in marital quality.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Low power may contribute to the lack of more definitive findings.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If a risk factor is causally potent only in the presence of an uncommon background factor, it will typically produce a weak overall effect.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If we knew of and measured all the relevant factors that influence risk exposure, the propensity method would provide accurate and unbiased estimates of causal effects.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In our detailed set of covariates, those exposed to dSLEs (cases) frequently differed from those who were unexposed (controls), immediately raising concern that the association between dSLEs and subsequent depressive episodes may not be entirely causal and may instead be at least partly mediated via these covariates along paths a and b in Figure 1.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Clarifying causal processes is problematic in psychiatric epidemiology, in which controlled trials are often impossible.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > CONCLUSIONS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Our confidence in scientific results should increase when similar answers are obtained by different methods, especially when these 2 methods have different strengths and weaknesses, for example, in the congruent evidence of genetic influences on schizophrenia from twin and adoption studies.53”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [53] Kendler KS Diehl SR The genetics of schizophrenia: a current, genetic-epidemiologic perspective Schizophr Bull 1993 19 2 261 285 8322035 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If covariates that influence risk factor exposure and outcome are left out of propensity matching, this could also result in an overestimation of causal effects.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Dependent SLEs are, at least in part, exogenous risk factors that proved relatively easy to control for, as demonstrated by the very low rate of covariate imbalance in our discordant MZ twins.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > COMMENT > STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CO-TWIN CONTROL AND PROPENSITY MATCHING METHODS FOR CAUSAL INFERENCE
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Twin pairs raised together are matched for their rearing environment and their genes (partly for dizygotic and completely for monozygotic pairs) although not for environmental experiences unique to each twin.
“Twin pairs raised together are matched for their rearing environment and their genes (partly for dizygotic [DZ] and completely for monozygotic [MZ] pairs) although not for environmental experiences unique to each twin.”
The paper relies on this without support.
A double-blind study to clarify the causal relationship of SLEs or PDEs with MD would not be feasible or ethical.
“A double-blind study to clarify the causal relationship of either of these exposures with MD would not be feasible or ethical.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The risk factor and outcome variables for PDEs are the same (both are episodes of MD) and should share most predictors.
“Given these results and the fact that the risk factor and outcome variables were the same (ie, both are episodes of MD) and should share most predictors, the a priori probability that the observed association might be substantially noncausal is particularly high.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Covariates used in propensity matching must be causes and not consequences of risk factor exposure.
“Covariates have to be causes and not consequences of risk factor exposure.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Findings from several genetically informative studies have indicated that the associations between SLEs and depression in part reflect the causal influence of exposure on depression risk (Kendler et al., 1999a; Kendler & Aggen, 2014; Kendler & Gardner, 2010).”
From Stressful life events increase the risk of major depressive episodes: A population-based twin study (2023) · cites this paper as Kendler & Gardner, 2010
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Although the co-twin control design increases control over genetic and shared environmental confounders, it is unable to control for non-shared confounders that only affect one twin, which can bias estimated effects (Frisell et al., 2012; Kendler & Gardner, 2010).”
From Stressful life events increase the risk of major depressive episodes: A population-based twin study (2023) · cites this paper as Kendler & Gardner, 2010
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > dSLEs AS A CAUSAL RISK FACTOR FOR AN MD EPISODE
“Of these, 496 were exposed to a dSLE in the year before the MM1 interview.”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > METHODS > MEASUREMENTS
“We assessed the occurrence, to the nearest month during the year before the MM2 interview, of 11 classes of personal and 4 classes of network events.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > RESULTS > PDEs AS CAUSAL RISK FACTORS FOR SUBSEQUENT DEPRESSIVE EPISODES
“In that sample, exposure to a PDE was strongly associated with the occurrence of 1 or more PDE onsets in the year before the FF4 interview (OR, 3.68; 90% CI, 2.66–5.04; P<.001).”
§ Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression > METHODS > MEASUREMENTS
“To evaluate the relationship between PDE and risk for a subsequent depressive episode, MD episodes reported at the MM1 and FF1 interviews were used as risk factors, and those reported at the MM2 and FF2 interviews were used as the outcomes.”
Citations
Cites
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders
Williams, J. B. W., & First, M. B. (2013) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780199975839.013.104 · Cited by 109,845
Society and the Adolescent Self-Image
Rosenberg, M. (1965) · doi:10.1515/9781400876136 · Cited by 30,126
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders
(2012) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/springerreference_121117 · Cited by 20,772
Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys
Rubin, D. B. (1987) · Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics · doi:10.1002/9780470316696 · Cited by 20,701
The Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence: a revision of the Fagerstrom Tolerance Questionnaire
HEATHERTON, T. F., KOZLOWSKI, L. T., FRECKER, R. C., & FAGERSTROM, K. (1991) · British Journal of Addiction · doi:10.1111/j.1360-0443.1991.tb01879.x · Cited by 10,738
CAUSALITY: MODELS, REASONING AND INFERENCE
Hitchcock, C., & Pearl, J. (2001) · The Philosophical Review · doi:10.2307/3182612 · Cited by 4,827
A parental bonding instrument.
Parker, G., Tupling, H., & Brown, L. B. (1979) · British Journal of Medical Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.2044-8341.1979.tb02487.x · Cited by 3,788
A revised version of the Psychoticism scale
Eysenck, S. B. G., Eysenck, H. J., & Barrett, P. (1985) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/0191-8869(85)90026-1 · Cited by 3,094
Causality: models, reasoning, and inference
(2000) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.38-1494a · Cited by 2,968
THE EFFECTS OF STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS ON DEPRESSION
Kessler, R. C. (1997) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.48.1.191 · Cited by 2,111 · cited 1×
“These variables (and, where available, the original scales and publications showing their association with MD) were (1) birth year, (2) mean parental warmth measured by the Parental Bonding Instrument,(33,34) (3) childhood sexual abuse,(35,36) (4) parental loss due to death or divorce in childhood,(37) (5) neuroticism…”
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- [14]Woodward J Making Things Happen 2003 New York, NY Oxford University Press
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Keyes, K. M., Hatzenbuehler, M. L., & Hasin, D. S. (2011) · Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1007/s00213-011-2236-1 · Cited by 524
“Propensity analysis aims to mitigate the problem of reverse causation by carefully controlling confounding; these analyses have been applied to depression outcomes (Kendler and Gardner 2010), but have not yet been applied to alcohol outcomes.”
MethodBromberger, J. T., Kravitz, H. M., Chang, Y., Cyranowski, J. M., Brown, C., & Matthews, K. A. (2011) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s003329171100016x · Cited by 464
“Both factors are known to be consistently related to major depression (Kendler & Gardner, 2010) but prior studies of menopause have not assessed their importance relative to the menopausal transition.”
BackgroundUsing genetic data to strengthen causal inference in observational research
Pingault, J.-B., O’Reilly, P. F., Schoeler, T., Ploubidis, G. B., Rijsdijk, F., & Dudbridge, F. (2018) · Nature Reviews Genetics · doi:10.1038/s41576-018-0020-3 · Cited by 444
Pryce, C. R., Azzinnari, D., Spinelli, S., Seifritz, E., Tegethoff, M., & Meinlschmidt, G. (2011) · Pharmacology & Therapeutics · doi:10.1016/j.pharmthera.2011.06.006 · Cited by 259
Brain-gut-microbiota axis: challenges for translation in psychiatry
Kelly, J. R., Clarke, G. A., Cryan, J. F., & Dinan, T. G. (2016) · Annals of Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2016.02.008 · Cited by 207
Metadata
- Authors
- Kendler, K. S., & Gardner, C. O.
- Affiliations
- Virginia Commonwealth University (US)
- ORCID
- Kendler, Kenneth S.
- Venue
- Archives of General Psychiatry
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2010-11-01
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1120
- ISSN
- 0003-990X (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3081880
- OpenAlex
- W2045667549
- Semantic Scholar
- dab89f6651d38065df4ad8a91faa4ac2eb753315
- Cited by
- 156
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 13.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Archives of General Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (DA-011287, MH‐068643)
- National Institute of Mental Health (R01 MH049492, MH-49492, MH-068643, R01 MH068643)
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01 DA011287, DA011287)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Mental Health Treatment and Access
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Associations and Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology (medical) › Treatment of Major Depression
- Keywords
- major depressive disorder, life events, environmental risk factors, causal inference, co-twin control, propensity score matching, monozygotic twins, sex differences, natural experiment
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Data Collection, Depressive Disorder, Major, Major Depressive Disorder, Diseases in Twins, Female, Humans, Life Change Events, Male, Middle Aged, Surveys and Questionnaires, Social Environment, Twins, Dizygotic, Twins, Monozygotic, Causality, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Propensity Score
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-20, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-20 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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