Increased conspiracy beliefs among ethnic and Muslim minorities
Open accessAbstract
In the present study, we tested whether Muslim minority members are more susceptible to conspiracy theories than majority members in the Netherlands. We examined conspiracy theories that are relevant (portraying the Muslim community as victim or Jewish people as perpetrators) and irrelevant for participants' Muslim identity (about the 2007 financial crisis, and other theories such as that the moon landings were fake). Results revealed that Muslims believed both identity‐relevant and irrelevant conspiracy theories more strongly than non‐Muslims. These differences could not be attributed to the contents of Muslim faith: Ethnic minority status exerted similar effects independent of Muslim identity. Instead, evidence suggested that feelings of both personal and group‐based deprivation independently contribute to belief in conspiracy theories. We conclude that feelings of deprivation lead marginalized minority members to perceive the social and political system as rigged, stimulating belief in both identity‐relevant and irrelevant conspiracy theories.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In a Dutch survey, Muslim and ethnic minority participants reported stronger belief in conspiracy theories than majority/non-Muslim participants, including theories irrelevant to Muslim identity. Both personal deprivation (low belonging in Dutch society) and group-based deprivation independently predicted conspiracy beliefs.
Key findings
- Muslims believed conspiracy theories more strongly than non-Muslims across all four indices: Muslim theories (M = 4.17 vs. 2.74), Jewish theories (3.57 vs. 2.29), economic theories (3.74 vs. 3.10), and other theories (3.12 vs. 2.51).
- Ethnic minorities similarly believed more strongly than Dutch Caucasian participants: Muslim theories (M = 4.00 vs. 2.70), Jewish theories (3.41 vs. 2.26), economic theories (3.71 vs. 2.98), and other theories (3.08 vs. 2.45).
- In hierarchical regressions, both ethnicity and Muslim identity were independent significant predictors of all four conspiracy indices; Step 2 ΔR² was .28 for Muslim theories, .29 for Jewish theories, .14 for economic theories, and .12 for other theories.
- In Sample 1, both lower belonging in Dutch society and higher group-based deprivation independently predicted all four conspiracy indices (Step 2 ΔR² = .15, .13, .16, and .12, respectively); a Muslim identity × conspiracy theory interaction was significant, F(3, 340) = 19.86, p < .001, η² = .15, but ethnicity × conspiracy theory was not, F < 1.
Methods
- Two parallel Dutch samples collected May/June 2016 via Kieskompas: a DENK-voter panel expected to include many Muslim minorities (Sample 1, n = 225) and a snowballed social-media sample (Sample 2, n = 130); final N = 355 after excluding missing values on conspiracy belief (180 men, 168 women, 7 not indicated; M age = 27.33, SD = 9.41).
- Participants rated 13 conspiracy theories on 1–5 scales; items were aggregated into Muslim, Jewish, economic, and other conspiracy indices. Ethnicity and Muslim identity were effect-coded; controls were gender, age, political ideology, and education.
- Personal deprivation was measured only in Sample 1 as belongingness in the Netherlands (0–100 slider), and group-based deprivation was measured with four items (α = 0.81). Main analyses were hierarchical regressions, with additional Sample 2 minority-status analyses and a 2 × 2 × 4 ANOVA.
Limitations
- The paper states that it offers only one study; the evidence for personal and group-based deprivation is correlational, so reverse causality cannot be excluded.
- The paper states that much of the minority sample likely experienced relatively high deprivation because of affiliation with a party focused on Muslim rights, leaving open whether non-marginalized minorities would differ from majority members.
- Evident from the text: deprivation measures were collected only in Sample 1; Sample 2 contained only four Muslim participants and Sample 1 only 10 majority-group members, limiting separate ethnicity/Muslim analyses; all measures were self-report and cross-sectional.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 12 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
Muslims believed both identity-relevant and irrelevant conspiracy theories more strongly than non-Muslims.
“Results revealed that Muslims believed both identity-relevant and irrelevant conspiracy theories more strongly than non-Muslims.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Step 2 was significant for all conspiracy theories.
“More important for the present purposes, Step 2 was significant for all conspiracy theories: for Muslim conspiracy theories (ΔR 2 = 0.28), F (2, 327) = 66.70, p < 0.001;”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Belongingness and group-based deprivation were moderately and negatively correlated (r = -0.25, p < 0.001).
“Belongingness and group-based deprivation were moderately and negatively correlated (r = -0.25,p < 0.001).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Minority status was significant for all conspiracy theories in Sample 2.
“Minority status (Step 2), then, was significant for all conspiracy theories: Muslim conspiracy theories (ΔR 2 = 0.06), F (1, 113) = 8.42, p = 0.004 (majority M = 2.37, SD = 1.10; minority M = 3.26, SD = 1.33);”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Dutch Muslims believe conspiracy theories more strongly than non-Muslims.
“The present study found that Dutch Muslims believe conspiracy theories more strongly than non-Muslims.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
The higher conspiracy belief of Muslims was observed not only on identity-relevant conspiracy theories (Muslim and Jewish) but also on theories irrelevant to participants' Muslim identity (economic crisis and other theories such as that the Moon landings were fake).
“We observed this effect not only on identity-relevant conspiracy theories (Muslim and Jewish conspiracy theories) but also on theories irrelevant for participants' Muslim identity (about the economic crisis, and other conspiracy theories such as that the Moon landings were fake).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In Sample 1, the effects of education did not emerge for three out of four conspiracy theories.
“Intriguingly, in Sample 1, the effects of education did not emerge for three out of four conspiracy theories.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Minority group members are likely to suffer from societal deprivation in at least two complementary ways: personal deprivation and group-based deprivation.
“Minority group members are likely to suffer from societal deprivation in at least two complementary ways.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Branscombe, Schmitt, & Harvey, 1999
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Crocker & Major, 1989
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisereasoning
Perceiving deprivation at both levels is conceptually distinct from conspiracy beliefs.
“Furthermore, perceiving deprivation at both levels is conceptually distinct from conspiracy beliefs: Unlike conspiracy theories, such deprivation (a) does not necessarily occur in secret, (b) is not necessarily produced by a specific group that colluded, and (c) is not always intentional (e.g., implicit stereotypes can lead to unintentional yet realistic deprivation of equality).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisereasoning
Conspiracy theories provide an explanatory framework for the predicaments of marginalized minority groups.
“Conspiracy theories hence provide an explanatory framework for the predicaments of marginalized minority groups.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Thorburn & Bogart, 2005
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Crocker, Luhtanen, Broadnax, & Blaine, 1999
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Personal experiences of social exclusion increase belief in conspiracy theories.
“Moreover, personal experiences of social exclusion increase belief in conspiracy theories (Graeupner & Coman, 2017).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Graeupner & Coman, 2017
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisereasoning
The negative emotions associated with personal deprivation activate a suspicious mindset that approaches the social environment with scrutiny.
“The negative emotions that are associated with personal deprivation activate a suspicious mindset that approaches the social environment with scrutiny.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Personal deprivation is an aversive experience that predicts increased motivation to make sense of one's life circumstances.
“Personal deprivation is an aversive experience that predicts increased motivation to make sense of one's life circumstances (Park, 2010).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Park, 2010
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
Feelings of personal deprivation are related with basic social-cognitive processes that increase susceptibility to conspiracy theories.
“These insights suggest that feelings of personal deprivation are related with basic social-cognitive processes that increases susceptibility to conspiracy theories.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
One study found strong conspiracy theories among a sample of African Americans independent of how affluent individual participants were.
“One study found strong conspiracy theories among a sample of African Americans independent of how affluent individual participants were (Simmons & Parsons, 2005).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Simmons & Parsons, 2005
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationcitation
The role of personal deprivation is unlikely to be the only factor necessary to understand the relationship between minority status and conspiracy theories.
“Although this hypothesized role of personal deprivation dovetails with research on conspiracy theories, it is unlikely to be the only factor necessary to understand the relationship between minority status and conspiracy theories.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The effects observed here are due to minority status and not party affiliation.
“These findings suggest that the effects observed here indeed are due to minority status and not party affiliation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Group-based deprivation items were averaged into a reliable scale with α = 0.81.
“These items were averaged into a reliable scale of group-based deprivation (α = 0.81).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The effects presented are likely to replicate in follow-up studies.
“The effects presented here hence are likely to replicate in follow-up studies.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationcitation
The finding that education effects did not emerge in Sample 1 is consistent with previous arguments that the relationship between education and conspiracy beliefs may not emerge in populations that suffer from group-based deprivation.
“Although not a direct purpose of the present research, this finding is consistent with previous arguments that the relationship between education and conspiracy beliefs may not emerge in populations that suffer from group-based deprivation (see Van Prooijen, 2017; p. 57).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Van Prooijen, 2017
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
The study offers insights into why marginalized minorities are more likely to believe conspiracy theories, by pointing at the independent roles of two levels of deprivation.
“Second, the study presented here offers insights into the question why marginalized minorities are more likely to believe conspiracy theories, by pointing at the independent roles of two levels of deprivation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The findings provide direct evidence that marginalized minorities are more susceptible to conspiracy theories even when those theories are conceptually irrelevant to their marginalized status.
“First, these findings provide direct evidence for the notion that marginalized minorities are more susceptible to conspiracy theories even when these theories are conceptually irrelevant for their marginalized status in society”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Goertzel, 1994
Not checked in the free run.
- May combine two claims. 27
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 17
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFeelings of both personal and group-based deprivation independently contribute to belief in conspiracy theories.
“Instead, evidence suggested that feelings of both personal and group-based deprivation independently contribute to belief in conspiracy theories.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Low belonging reflects feelings that one is not a full-fledged Dutch citizen (belongingness is a valid proxy for personal deprivation).
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataEthnic minority status and Muslim identity independently predict stronger belief in conspiracy theories.
“These differences could not be attributed to the contents of Muslim faith: Ethnic minority status exerted similar effects independent of Muslim identity.”
- Also stated in: § 4.1 | Ethnicity and Muslim identity · plain
“Both ethnicity and Muslim identity were independent significant predictors in the regression model of all conspiracy theories (Table 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § 4.1 | Ethnicity and Muslim identity · plain
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn Sample 1, Step 2 of the regression (belonging and group-based deprivation) was significant for all four conspiracy theories, with ΔR2 of 0.15 (Muslim), 0.13 (Jewish), 0.16 (economic) and 0.12 (other).
“Step 2, then, was significant for all four conspiracy theories: for Muslim conspiracy theories (ΔR 2 = 0.15), F (2, 194) = 17.54, p < 0.001, for Jewish conspiracy theories (ΔR 2 = 0.13), F (2, 194) = 15.10,p < 0.001, for economic conspiracy theories (ΔR 2 = 0.16), F (2, 194) = 19.11,p < 0.001, and for other conspiracy theories (ΔR 2 = 0.12), F (2, 194) = 13.76,p < 0.001.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataEthnic and Muslim minorities believe conspiracy theories more strongly, both for theories directly relevant for Muslim identity and for theories unspecific for ethnic or Muslim minorities.
“The means are displayed in Table 2 and indicate that ethnic and Muslim minorities believe conspiracy theories more strongly, both for theories that are directly relevant for participants' Muslim identity (Muslim and Jewish conspiracy theories) and for theories unspecific for ethnic or Muslim minorities (economic and other conspiracy theories).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn Sample 1, Step 1 of the regression was nonsignificant for Muslim, Jewish and economic conspiracy theories but significant for other conspiracy theories.
“Step 1 was nonsignificant for Muslim conspiracy theories (R 2 = 0.04), F (5, 196) = 1.64, p = 0.150, Jewish conspiracy theories (R 2 = 0.02), F < 1, and economic conspiracy theories (R 2 = 0.05), F (5, 196) = 1.87, p = 0.102, and it was significant for other conspiracy theories (R 2 = 0.06), F (5, 196) = 2.44, p = 0.036.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn Sample 1, both decreased feelings of belonging in Dutch society and increased group-based deprivation independently predict belief in all four conspiracy theories (Muslim, Jewish, economic, and other).
“As can be seen in Table 3, both forms of deprivation (i.e., decreased belonging and increased group-based deprivation) independently predict belief in all four conspiracy theories.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the entire sample, the education × minority status interaction was nonsignificant for Muslim and Jewish conspiracy theories but significant for economic and other conspiracy theories.
“The education × minority status interaction in the entire sample was nonsignificant for Muslim and Jewish conspiracy theories (β = -0.06 and β = -0.06,respectively; ps > 0.23) but significant for economic (β = -0.17,p = 0.001) and other conspiracy theories (β = -0.13,p = 0.014).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataA 2 (Muslim identity) × 2 (ethnicity) × 4 (conspiracy theory) analysis revealed a significant Muslim identity × conspiracy theory interaction but no ethnicity × conspiracy theory interaction.
“This revealed a significant Muslim identity × conspiracy theory interaction, F (3, 340) = 19.86,p < 0.001, η 2 = 0.15, but no ethnicity × conspiracy theory interaction, F < 1.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn Sample 2, Step 1 of the regression was significant for all four conspiracy theories, driven by strong education effects on all dependent variables.
“Step 1 was significant for all four conspiracy theories (0.12 < R 2 s < 0.24); 4.22 < F s(4, 114) < 8.97; 0.004 < ps < 0.001, which was due to strong education effects on all dependent variables (-0.43 < βs < -0.31; ps < 0.001)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataEthnic minority status exerted effects on conspiracy beliefs similar to those of Muslim identity, independent of Muslim identity.
“Ethnic minority status exerted similar effects on conspiracy beliefs, independent of Muslim identity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOn the dropped AIDS-conspiracy item, the effects of ethnicity and Muslim identity were significant and in the predicted direction.
“It is noteworthy, however, that on this item the effects of ethnicity and Muslim identity were significant, and in the predicted direction (ps < 0.003).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationBoth levels of deprivation are associated with negative emotions and feelings of injustice, but they predict different outcome variables.
“Whereas both levels of deprivation are associated with negative emotions (e.g., anger) and feelings of injustice, they predict different outcome variables.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Smith, Pettigrew, Pippin, & Bialosiewicz, 2012
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPersonal deprivation is particularly associated with individual-level variables, but group-based deprivation is particularly associated with group-level variables.
“For instance, personal deprivation is particularly associated with individual-level variables (e.g., self-perceptions), but group-based deprivation is particularly associated with group-level variables (e.g., collective action; see Smith, Pettigrew, Pippin, & Bialosiewicz, 2012).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Smith, Pettigrew, Pippin, & Bialosiewicz, 2012
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPreliminary findings are mixed and suggest that while ethnic minorities are particularly susceptible to racially relevant conspiracy theories, they also show an increased susceptibility to at least some conspiracy theories irrelevant for race.
“Preliminary findings are mixed and suggest that while ethnic minorities are particularly susceptible to racially relevant conspiracy theories, they also show an increased susceptibility to at least some conspiracy theories irrelevant for race (Goertzel, 1994).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Goertzel, 1994
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Premisenone givenMost previous research on this topic is restricted by focusing on explicitly racial conspiracy theories involving a White plot that harms the Black community.
“Most previous research on this topic is restricted, however, by focusing on explicitly racial conspiracy theories involving a White plot that harms the Black community.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataFeelings of deprivation lead marginalized minority members to perceive the social and political system as rigged, stimulating belief in both identity-relevant and irrelevant conspiracy theories.
“We conclude that feelings of deprivation lead marginalized minority members to perceive the social and political system as rigged, stimulating belief in both identity-relevant and irrelevant conspiracy theories.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Low belonging reflects feelings that one is not a full-fledged Dutch citizen (belongingness is a valid proxy for personal deprivation).
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningMinority members are more likely than majority group members to assume that the social and political system they live in is rigged, prompting beliefs in both identity-relevant and irrelevant conspiracy theories.
“These arguments suggest that minority members are more likely than majority group members to assume that the social and political system they live in is rigged, prompting beliefs in both identity-relevant and irrelevant conspiracy theories.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataThe final sample yields 95% power for a small-to-medium effect size (f = .04).
“This final sample yields 95% power for a small-to-medium effect size ( ffoot_0 = .04).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenWe stopped collecting data once no further responses came in, and prior to any analyses.
“We stopped collecting data once no further responses came in, and prior to any analyses.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThese suspected plots may have goals that are not only racial but also nonracial in content.
“We argue that these suspected plots may have goals that are not only racial but also nonracial in content.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataWe selected only those participants with no missing values on our key dependent variable, rendering a final sample of 355 participants.
“We therefore selected only those participants with no missing values on our key dependent variable (belief in conspiracy theories), rendering a final sample of 355 participants (180 men, 168 women, 7 not indicated; M age = 27.33 years; SD = 9.41; Sample 1 n = 225, Sample 2 n = 130).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Study design and conductown dataTwo additional items were combined into an index of Jewish conspiracy theories with a correlation of r = 0.55, p < 0.001.
“Two additional items were combined into an index of Jewish conspiracy theories (”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataAll results reported below were similar if we ran the analyses without control variables.
“All results reported below were similar if we ran the analyses without control variables.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataTwo items were aggregated into an index of Muslim conspiracy theories with a correlation of r = 0.77, p < 0.001.
“Two items were aggregated into an index of Muslim conspiracy theories (”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenData collection was coordinated by Kieskompas, which acts in line with strict regulations of the Dutch Authority for the Protection of Personal Information and with ethical norms of VU Amsterdam.
“Data collection was coordinated by”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningBoth forms of deprivation promote the perception that majority group representatives are evil entities that are involved in malevolent plots.
“It therefore stands to reason that both forms of deprivation promote the perception that majority group representatives are evil entities that are involved in malevolent plots.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataThe regression models revealed no evidence for multicollinearity (all variance inflation factors <1.90).
“The regression models revealed no evidence for multicollinearity (all variance inflation factors <1.90).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataThe remaining five items formed an index of other conspiracy theories with α = 0.83.
“The remaining five items formed an index of other conspiracy theories (α = 0.83;”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataEconomic conspiracy theories were measured with four items with α = 0.84.
“We measured economic conspiracy theories with four items (α = 0.84;”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
PremisereasoningBoth forms of deprivation have one common denominator: Members of a dominant majority group are responsible for the marginalized positions that perceivers and their group have in society.
“Both forms of deprivation have one common denominator: Members of a dominant majority group are responsible for the marginalized positions that perceivers and their group have in society.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataIt was impossible to analyze ethnicity and Muslim identity separately because Sample 2 contained only four Muslim participants.
“Note that it was impossible to analyze ethnicity and Muslim identity separately, as Sample 2 contained only four Muslim participants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe contents of Muslim faith are a poor explanation for the higher conspiracy beliefs of Muslims, because ethnic minority status exerted similar effects independent of Muslim identity.
“Furthermore, the contents of Muslim faith are a poor explanation for these findings: Ethnic minority status exerted similar effects on conspiracy beliefs, independent of Muslim identity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Study design and conductnone givenThe present study was well-powered.
“Yet our study was well-powered and displayed effects that are consistent with previous insights on the relationship between minorities and conspiracy theories specifically”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe effects of Muslim identity, but not of ethnicity, are stronger for identity-relevant than for identity-irrelevant conspiracy theories.
“This suggests that the effects of Muslim identity, but not ethnicity, are stronger for identity-relevant than identity-irrelevant conspiracy theories.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataBoth forms of deprivation independently contribute to a perception of the social and political system as rigged, which stimulates belief in both identity-relevant and identity-irrelevant conspiracy theories.
“These findings suggest that both forms of deprivation independently contribute to a perception of the social and political system as rigged, stimulating belief in both identity-relevant and irrelevant conspiracy theories.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe empirical evidence for the explanatory variables (personal and group-based deprivation) is correlational, so reverse causality cannot be excluded.
“One limitation of our approach is that the empirical evidence for our explanatory variables-personal and group-based deprivation-is correlational.Based on the study presented here, it is hence impossible to exclude the possibility of reverse causality”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenSample 1 yields 95% power for a small-to-medium effect size (f2 = 0.07).
“This sample yields 95% power for a small-to-medium effect size ( f 2 = 0.07).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningConspiracy theories are common among both ethnic and Muslim minorities.
“We conclude that conspiracy theories are common among both ethnic and Muslim minorities.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataA similar analysis on Sample 1 is problematic because Sample 1 contains only 10 majority group members (Caucasian and non-Muslim).
“Also note that a similar analysis on Sample 1 is problematic, as Sample 1 only contains 10 majority group members (i.e., Caucasian and non-Muslim).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
Hostile intergroup relations are associated with conspiracy theories.
“It has hence been noted that hostile intergroup relations are associated with conspiracy theories.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Low belonging reflects feelings that one is not a full-fledged Dutch citizen (belongingness is a valid proxy for personal deprivation).
“Finally, we measured belonging in Dutch society as a proxy for personal deprivation (i.e., low belonging reflects feelings that one is not a full-fledged Dutch citizen) and group-based deprivation.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Conspiracy beliefs are higher when people want to feel safe and in control.
“(3) feel safe and in control [36][37][38].”
From The dark side of social movements: social identity, non-conformity, and the lure of conspiracy theories (2020) · cites this paper as [38]
Statistics recomputed
Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.
- ConsistentF(4, 329) = 3.79reported p = .005 · recomputed p = .005
“F (4, 329) = 3.79, p = .005”
- ConsistentF(4, 329) = 3.47reported p = .009 · recomputed p = .009
“F (4, 329) = 3.47, p = .009”
- ConsistentF(4, 330) = 4.89reported p = .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (4, 330) = 4.89, p = .001”
- ConsistentF(4, 330) = 8.19reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (4, 330) = 8.19, p < .001”
- ConsistentF(2, 327) = 66.7reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (2, 327) = 66.70, p < .001”
- ConsistentF(2, 327) = 71.89reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (2, 327) = 71.89,p < .001”
- ConsistentF(2, 328) = 29.24reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (2, 328) = 29.24,p < .001”
- ConsistentF(2, 328) = 25.34reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (2, 328) = 25.34,p < .001”
- ConsistentF(1, 113) = 8.42reported p = .004 · recomputed p = .004
“F (1, 113) = 8.42, p = .004”
- ConsistentF(1, 113) = 5.51reported p = .021 · recomputed p = .021
“F (1, 113) = 5.51, p = .021”
- ConsistentF(1, 113) = 8.04reported p = .005 · recomputed p = .005
“F (1, 113) = 8.04, p = .005”
- ConsistentF(1, 113) = 5.43reported p = .022 · recomputed p = .022
“F (1, 113) = 5.43, p = .022”
- ConsistentF(5, 196) = 1.64reported p = .15 · recomputed p = .151
“F (5, 196) = 1.64, p = .150”
- ConsistentF(5, 196) = 1.87reported p = .102 · recomputed p = .101
“F (5, 196) = 1.87, p = .102”
- ConsistentF(5, 196) = 2.44reported p = .036 · recomputed p = .036
“F (5, 196) = 2.44, p = .036”
- ConsistentF(2, 194) = 17.54reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (2, 194) = 17.54, p < .001”
- ConsistentF(2, 194) = 15.1reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (2, 194) = 15.10,p < .001”
- ConsistentF(2, 194) = 19.11reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (2, 194) = 19.11,p < .001”
- ConsistentF(2, 194) = 13.76reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (2, 194) = 13.76,p < .001”
- ConsistentF(3, 340) = 19.86reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F (3, 340) = 19.86,p < .001”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Minority coefficient does not match its confidence interval
MinorIn Table 3, the reported 95% confidence interval for the Other conspiracy theories minority coefficient is centered at 0.065, not at the reported coefficient of −0.07. This discrepancy is too large to be rounding.
Reported -0.07 · recomputed 0.065
“| Minority | -0.33 (0.19) | [-0.71, 0.04] | -0.23 (0.18) | [-0.59, 0.13] | -0.35 (0.16)* | [-0.66, -0.04] | -0.07 (0.16) | [-0.25, 0.38] |”
Sample 2 ethnicity counts omit two participants
MinorThe listed Sample 2 ethnicity counts add to 128: 88 Caucasian Dutch, 36 ethnic minority participants, and four who preferred not to say. The reported Sample 2 size is 130, leaving two participants unaccounted for.
“In Sample 2, the majority of participants were Caucasian Dutch (n = 88).The ethnic minority participants in Sample 2 were Asian (n = 2), Black (n = 3), mixed race (n = 16), Middle Eastern/Arab (n = 3), Turkish (n = 1), and "Other" (n = 11).The remaining four participants in Sample 2 indicated "prefer not to say" and were coded as missing value.”
“Sample 1 n = 225, Sample 2 n = 130”
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ResultRelative Deprivation: A Theoretical and Meta-Analytic Review
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“…predictors of belief in one conspiracy theory is belief in a different, unrelated conspiracy theory (Abalakina‐Paap, Stephan, Craig, & Gregory, 1999; Goertzel, 1994; Swami et al., 2011; Swami, Chamorro‐Premuzic, & Furnham, 2010; Van Prooijen, Douglas, & De Inocencio, 2018; Wood, Douglas, & Sutton,…”
BackgroundResultInfluentialDead and Alive: Beliefs in Contradictory Conspiracy Theories
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Susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19 around the world
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An Existential Threat Model of Conspiracy Theories
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The cultural dimension of intergroup conspiracy theories
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Injustice Without Evidence: The Unique Role of Conspiracy Theories in Social Justice Research
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Economic inequality and conspiracy theories
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Zhang, Y., Suhaimi, N., Yongsatianchot, N., Gaggiano, J. D., Kim, M., Patel, S. A., Sun, Y., Marsella, S., Griffin, J., & Parker, A. G. (2022) · CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems · doi:10.1145/3491102.3501889 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Andrade, G. E. (2021) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.10.037 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Group-oriented motivations underlying conspiracy theories
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Conspiracy theories as opportunistic attributions of power
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Caught in a networked collusion? Homogeneity in conspiracy-related discussion networks on YouTube
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Don't trust anybody: Conspiracy mentality and the detection of facial trustworthiness cues
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Non-Muslims in the Qanun Jinayat and the Choice of Law in Sharia Courts in Aceh
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Insight in the Conspiracist’s Mind
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Unpacking COVID ‐19 and conspiracy theories in the UK black community
Vandrevala, T., Hendy, J., Hanson, K., Alidu, L., & Ala, A. (2022) · British Journal of Health Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjhp.12636 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
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Deprived, Radical, Alternatively Informed
Ziegele, M., Resing, M., Frehmann, K., Jackob, N., Jakobs, I., Quiring, O., Schemer, C., Schultz, T., & Viehmann, C. (2022) · European Journal of Health Communication · doi:10.47368/ejhc.2022.205 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
The role of perceived minority-group status in the conspiracy beliefs of factual majority groups
Gundersen, A., van der Linden, S., Piksa, M., Morzy, M., Piasecki, J., Rygula, R., Gwiaździński, P., Noworyta, K., & Kunst, J. R. (2023) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.221036 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Matchanova, A., Woods, S. P., Neighbors, C., Medina, L. D., Podell, K., Beltran‐Najera, I., Alex, C., Babicz, M. A., & Thompson, J. L. (2023) · Current Psychology · doi:10.1007/s12144-023-04464-w · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Analytic adolescents prevail over fake news – A large-scale preregistered study
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Conspiracy Beliefs and the Perception of Intergroup Inequalities
Nera, K., Douglas, K. M., Bertin, P., Delouvée, S., & Klein, O. (2024) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/01461672241279085 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Jolley, D., Paterson, J. L., Deric, D., Lovato, T., & McCarthy, J. (2024) · Journal of Community & Applied Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/casp.70020 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Barbosa de Andrade Aragão, R., Bastos Lima, M. G., Burns, G. L., Ross, H., & Biggs, D. (2024) · Forest Policy and Economics · doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103267 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Reliability Check: An Analysis of GPT-3’s Response to Sensitive Topics and Prompt Wording
Khatun, A., & Brown, D. G. (2023) · Workshop on Trustworthy Natural Language Processing (TrustNLP) · doi:10.18653/v1/2023.trustnlp-1.8 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Matei, V. P., Pavel, A. N., Giurgiuca, A., Roşca, A., Sofia, A. D., Dutu, I., & Tudose, C. (2020) · Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment · doi:10.2147/ndt.s278471 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Bertin, P., Ionescu, O., Green, R., Abts, K., Rogenhofer, J. M., Delouvée, S., Yzerbyt, V. Y., & Klein, O. (2024) · European Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/ejsp.3093 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Gundersen, A. B., van der Linden, S., Piasecki, J., Ryguła, R., Noworyta, K., & Kunst, J. R. (2024) · Journal of Social and Political Psychology · doi:10.5964/jspp.13385 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Hoecke, A. L. V., & Sanders, J. G. (2022) · Vaccines · doi:10.3390/vaccines10050720 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Adam-Troian, J., Wagner-Egger, P., Motyl, M., Arciszewski, T., Imhoff, R., Zimmer, F., Klein, O., Babińska, M., Bangerter, A., Bilewicz, M., et al. (2020) · Political Psychology · doi:10.31234/osf.io/nzg7x · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Self-citationCurious about threats: Morbid curiosity and interest in conspiracy theories in US adults
Scrivner, C., & Stubbersfield, J. (2023) · British Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjop.12682 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Zein, R. A., Ridlo, I. A., Arinda, M. F., & Rikardi, A. A. (2020) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/53qsk · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Trust in doctors, social support, and belief in COVID-19 misinformation
Horoszko, U. A., Smith, L., Murphy, A., Taylor, B. G., Lamuda, P. A., Pollack, H. A., Schneider, J. A., Taxman, F. S., & Zhao, X. (2025) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-025-23470-0 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
How belief in conspiracy theories could harm sustainability
van Prooijen, J., Šrol, J., & Maglić, M. (2025) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-025-02243-0 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The motivations and reputational consequences of spreading conspiracy theories
Cao, S., van Prooijen, J., & van Vugt, M. (2024) · British Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjso.12784 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
de Zavala, A. G., Bierwiaczonek, K., & Ciesielski, P. (2022) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/2rku3 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
GEOPOLITICS OF VACCINES: WAR BY OTHER MEANS?
Ванковска, Б. (2021) · Security Dialogues /Безбедносни дијалози · doi:10.47054/sd21122041v · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Nera, K., Wagner‐Egger, P., Bertin, P., Douglas, K. M., & Klein, O. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/s37vy · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Conspiracy Theories as Opportunistic Attributions of PowerPreprint
Nera, K., Bertin, P., & Klein, O. (2022) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/rmcj9 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Poier, S., & Nikodemska‐Wołowik, A. M. (2024) · Journal of Infection and Public Health · doi:10.1016/j.jiph.2024.102519 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Conspiracy mentality in autistic and non-autistic individuals
Roels, S. P., Begeer, S., Scheeren, A. M., & van Prooijen, J. (2024) · Cognitive Neuropsychiatry · doi:10.1080/13546805.2024.2399505 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Li, J., Borah, P., Kang, J.-W., Kim, J., Okada, T., Shen, L., Tao, R., & Yang, S. (2024) · Information Communication & Society · doi:10.1080/1369118x.2024.2341000 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Psychological predictors of COVID-19 vaccination in New ZealandPreprint
Marques, M. D., Sibley, C. G., Wilson, M., Bulbulia, J. A., Osborne, D., Yogeeswaran, K., Lee, C. H. J., Duck, I. M., Douglas, K. M., & Cichocka, A. K. (2022) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/zkj7u · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Sofyan, N., Farida, N., Martini, R., & Erowati, D. (2023) · Social Sciences · doi:10.3390/socsci12120657 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Lin, X., & Yan, L. (2023) · Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research · doi:10.1080/10941665.2023.2293799 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Bilewicz, M. (2024) · Psychological Inquiry · doi:10.1080/1047840x.2024.2442919 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Witte, H. D., Hootegem, A. V., & Roll, L. C. (2025) · Economic and Industrial Democracy · doi:10.1177/0143831x251347770 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Conspiracy Theories As A Component Of Populist RhetoricPreprint
Sawyer, P. S., & Kalaycı, Y. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4121825 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Connecting Conspiracy Beliefs and Experiences of Social Exclusion
Imhoff, R. (2024) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009408165.014 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Sesele, K., & Marais, L. (2025) · Resources Policy · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105725 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
den Elzen, J. I., Asscher, J. J., Lang, K. M., & Duindam, H. M. (2025) · Journal of Youth and Adolescence · doi:10.1007/s10964-025-02250-4 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Ingroup conspiratorial beliefs: Re-thinking racial/ethnic minority group conspiracy in the UK and US
Hanson, K., Vandrevala, T., Martinelli, C., & Rigoli, F. (2025) · Journal of Social and Political Psychology · doi:10.5964/jspp.16835 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Weinmann, K. (2024) · Zeitschrift für Religion Gesellschaft und Politik · doi:10.1007/s41682-024-00187-2 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs among Romanian university students
Lup, O., & Mitrea, E. C. (2021) · Analele Universitatii din Bucuresti - Stiinte Politice · doi:10.54885/nwgi2184 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
van Mulukom, V. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/z5b4f · Cited by 1 · see citing works
PSIHOLOGIJA VJEROVANJA U TEORIJE ZAVJERE / PSYCHOLOGY OF CONSPIRACY BELIEFS
Jusić, M. (2023) · Pregled: časopis za društvena pitanja / Periodical for social issues · doi:10.48052/19865244.2022.3.57
Andrade, G. E. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-8706-2_105-1
الإيمان بنظريات المؤامرة: المبادئ الأساسية لمجال بحثي مستجد
جان, و. ف. ب., & دوغلاس, م. د. ك. م. (2023) · The Egyptian Journal of Social and Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.21608/ejsbs.2023.347131
From Folklore to Conspiracy Beliefs: A Gramscian Approach to Conspiracy Theory Studies
Pozzoni, M. C., & Quattromini, G. (2024) · Genealogy · doi:10.3390/genealogy8040145
The misperception of the ruling AKP as an opposition party among members of the Turkish diaspora
Siczek, T. (2025) · Turkish Studies · doi:10.1080/14683849.2025.2480173
van der Meulen, E. (2025) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2025.113201
Andrade, G. E. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-024-2252-8_105
Dick, M. J. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-15508-5_1
Marini, M., Salvati, M., & Sbordone, F. L. (2026) · Journal of Homosexuality · doi:10.1080/00918369.2026.2695664
Ambiguity as Opportunity: A Theoretical Model of Conspiracy Entrepreneurship
Chase, S. R., Maitlis, S., & Shepherd, D. A. (2026) · Academy of Management Journal · doi:10.5465/amj.2025.0640
Hoppe, J., Sambol, S., & Ball, M. (2026) · Scandinavian Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1111/sjop.70149
- Authors
- van Prooijen, J., Staman, J., & Krouwel, A. P. M.
- Affiliations
- Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology VU Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Venue
- Applied Cognitive Psychology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-07-23
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 661-667
- ISSN
- 0888-4080 (ISSN-L)
- 1099-0720
- OpenAlex
- W2884338451
- Semantic Scholar
- 60f2a30c3d05ed1e4f90fc9e909c8c96fc4704d3
- Cited by
- 76
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 11.35
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Applied Cognitive Psychology (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- Keywords
- conspiracy beliefs, conspiracy theories, Muslim minorities, ethnic minorities, Muslim identity, marginalized communities
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-09.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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