The neural representation of unexpected uncertainty during value-based decision making
Open accessAbstract
Uncertainty is an inherent property of the environment and a central feature of models of decision-making and learning. Theoretical propositions suggest that one form, unexpected uncertainty, may be used to rapidly adapt to changes in the environment, while being influenced by two other forms: risk and estimation uncertainty. While previous studies have reported neural representations of estimation uncertainty and risk, relatively little is known about unexpected uncertainty. Here, participants performed a decision-making task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which, in combination with a Bayesian model-based analysis, enabled us to separately examine each form of uncertainty examined. We found representations of unexpected uncertainty in multiple cortical areas, as well as the noradrenergic brainstem nucleus locus coeruleus. Other unique cortical regions were found to encode risk, estimation uncertainty, and learning rate. Collectively, these findings support theoretical models in which several formally separable uncertainty computations determine the speed of learning.
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Deviations from expected uncertainty should increase learning rates.
“Here, deviations from expected uncertainty (“unexpected uncertainty”) should increase learning rates.8,12,13,15–18”
From Serotonin neurons modulate learning rate through uncertainty (2022) · cites this paper as [16]
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- Authors
- Payzan-LeNestour, E., Dunne, S., Bossaerts, P., & O’Doherty, J. P.
- Affiliations
- California Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Dunne, Simon
- Venue
- Neuron
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2013-07
- Volume
- 79
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 191-201
- ISSN
- 0896-6273 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4885745
- OpenAlex
- W2147971214
- Cited by
- 257
- References
- 68
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 33 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 5
- FWCI
- 9.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Neuron (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Science Foundation Ireland (08/IN.1/B1844)
- National Institute of Mental Health (P50MH094258)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory and Neural Mechanisms
- Keywords
- estimation uncertainty, risk, value-based decision making, locus coeruleus, noradrenergic system, learning rate, cortical regions, learning speed
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Bayes Theorem, Brain, Brain Mapping, Decision Making, Female, Humans, Image Processing, Computer-Assisted, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Social Values, Uncertainty, Functional Neuroimaging
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