Anxious individuals have difficulty learning the causal statistics of aversive environments
Open accessAbstract
Statistical regularities in the causal structure of the environment enable us to predict the probable outcomes of our actions. Environments differ in the extent to which action-outcome contingencies are stable or volatile. Difficulty in being able to use this information to optimally update outcome predictions might contribute to the decision-making difficulties seen in anxiety. We tested this using an aversive learning task manipulating environmental volatility. Human participants low in trait anxiety matched updating of their outcome predictions to the volatility of the current environment, as predicted by a Bayesian model. Individuals with high trait anxiety showed less ability to adjust updating of outcome expectancies between stable and volatile environments. This was linked to reduced sensitivity of the pupil dilatory response to volatility, potentially indicative of altered norepinephrinergic responsivity to changes in this aspect of environmental information.
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In predictive processing terms, there may be an over-precision of negative predictions about the future in anxiety, coupled with an inability to down-regulate error signals related to ambiguous stimuli.
“In predictive processing terms, there may be an over-precision (49, 62, 63) of negative predictions about the future, coupled with an inability to down-regulate error signals related to ambiguous stimuli.”
From Predictive coding and neurocomputational psychiatry: a mechanistic framework for understanding mental disorders (2026) · cites this paper as [62]
The Abstract says anxious individuals focus disproportionately on future negative outcomes, and the Discussion reports difficulty adjusting learning about aversive outcomes to environmental volatility. But the paper does not establish over-precision of negative predictions or an inability to down-regulate error signals for ambiguous stimuli; the Discussion says high- and low-trait-anxious participants did not differ in their response to surprising adverse outcomes. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredComputational studies of reward and punishment decision-making show that people adjust how quickly they learn action-outcome contingencies when environmental volatility changes.
“While computational studies of decision-making about rewards and punishments show that participants adapt their rate of learning about action-outcome contingencies in response to changes in environmental volatility 8–10”
From Adults with autism overestimate the volatility of the sensory environment (2017) · cites this paper as [9]
In volatile environments, people should weight recent sensory outcomes more heavily when forming expectations; in stable environments, they should weight the distant past more heavily.
“When the environment is volatile people should give more weight to recent sensory outcomes in building expectations about what they will see next (e.g. adopt a high α), in contrast they should give information from the distant past more weight when the environment is stable (e.g. adopt a low α) 8,9.”
From Adults with autism overestimate the volatility of the sensory environment (2017) · cites this paper as [9]
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- Authors
- Browning, M., Behrens, T. E., Jocham, G., O'Reilly, J. X., & Bishop, S. J.
- Affiliations
- John Radcliffe Hospital (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Bishop, Sonia J
- Venue
- Nature Neuroscience
- Published
- 2015-03-02
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 590-596
- ISSN
- 1097-6256 (ISSN-L)
- 1546-1726
- PMC
- PMC4644067
- OpenAlex
- W2076285657
- Cited by
- 476
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 52 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 60 · 2023: 50 · 2022: 53 · 2021: 45 · 2020: 44 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 5
- FWCI
- 38.16
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Neuroscience (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust (104765/Z/14/Z)
- University of Oxford
- National Institutes of Health
- Medical Research Council (MR/L019639/1)
- National Institute of Mental Health (R01MH091848)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory and Neural Mechanisms
- Keywords
- anxiety, aversive learning, environmental volatility, Bayesian updating, outcome prediction, decision-making, norepinephrine, pupillometry, action-outcome contingency, trait anxiety, computational modeling
- MeSH terms
- Adaptation, Psychological, Adolescent, Adult, Anxiety, Avoidance Learning, Bayes Theorem, Electric Stimulation, Environment, Female, Humans, Learning, Male, Personality, Pupil, Uncertainty, Young Adult
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