Cited by 980Bioenergy crop production and managementBioeconomy and Sustainability DevelopmentBiofuel production and bioconversion

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 71 of the 73 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 147 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment

Open access

Popp, J., Lakner, Z., Harangi-Rákos, M., Fári, M.·2014·Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

DOI 10.1016/j.rser.2014.01.056

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Abstract

The increasing prices and environmental impacts of fossil fuels have made the production of biofuels to reach unprecedented volumes over the last 15 years. Given the increasing land requirement for biofuel production, the assessment of the impacts that extensive biofuel production may cause to food supply and to the environment has considerable importance. Agriculture faces some major inter-connected challenges in delivering food security at a time of increasing pressures from population growth, changing consumption patterns and dietary preferences, and post-harvest losses. At the same time, there are growing opportunities and demands for the use of biomass to provide additional renewables, energy for heat, power and fuel, pharmaceuticals and green chemical feedstocks. Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is expected to play a substantial role in future energy systems. However, the worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited, because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection. Furthermore, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land availability for biomass plantations. Large-scale cultivation of dedicated biomass is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, global food prices and water scarcity. Therefore, integrated policies for energy, land use and water management are needed. As biomass contains all the elements found in fossil resources, albeit in different combinations, therefore present and developing technologies can lead to a future based on renewable, sustainable and low carbon economies. This article presents [1] risks to food and energy security [2] estimates of bioenergy potential with regard to biofuel production, and [3] the challenges of the environmental impact.

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Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This review assesses global bioenergy expansion and its implications for food, energy, and environment, concluding that bioenergy has large but limited potential and that integrated land, water, and energy policies are needed. It finds that sustainable bioenergy potential is much lower than technical estimates and that indirect land-use change, food prices, and water scarcity are key risks.

Key findings

Global technical bioenergy potential estimates span less than 50 to 1500 EJ/year in 2050; sustainability-constrained scenarios indicate 200–500 EJ/year, while some analyses suggest a biophysical upper limit of about 250 EJ/year in 2050.
Global cropland used for biofuels is about 2.5% (40 million gross hectares), falling to 1.5% net when co-products substitute for grains and oilseeds; by 2050 land for biofuel production would need to rise to around 100 million ha (about 6% of arable land). Global food production must increase by 60% by 2050, with crop yield growth slowing to 0.8% per year (2005/2007–2050) versus 1.7% per year (1961–2007).
Land-use change contributes about 15% of global GHG emissions; bioenergy-related land-use change represents only around 1% of total land-use-change emissions. Indirect land-use change emissions are reported at 30 to more than 100% of fossil fuel emissions, and indirect emissions are in the order of 10–40% of emissions from substituted fossil fuels. Forest conservation reduces bioenergy supply from about 100 EJ in 2055 to 70 EJ and from about 300 EJ in 2095 to 270 EJ.
One metric tonne of DDGS can replace on average 1.22 metric tonnes of feed consisting of corn and soybean meal in the United States; accounting for co-products reduces the land required for feedstock cultivation to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).

Methods

The paper conducts a meta-analysis contrasting and combining results from various studies, biomass supply scenarios, and global models linked to land, water, energy use, and climate change in terms of food-, energy-, and environmental security.
Search terms included food-, energy- and environmental security, food demand, yield trends, renewable energy, biomass, biofuels, by-products for livestock feeding from biofuel production, land-use change, biofuels and the environment, sustainability requirements, and climate change mitigation; references covered 2001 to 2013, with supplemental bibliography searches.
Calculations were made for the land required for cultivation of feedstocks adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds; the EU policy objective of 20% GHG emission reductions using 20% renewables by 2020 is also presented.

Limitations

The paper states that results are potentially biased because studies might differ in their focus on potential or realized effects, their use of different baselines for comparisons, and other background conditions; there is also a lack of available publications related to the feed value of increasing biofuels by-products.
The paper states that precise quantification of GHG savings for specific systems is often hampered by lack of reliable data, different methods of quantification lead to variation in estimates, and indirect effects are uncertain and vary in time with no fixed indirect emission factor.
Evident from the text: as a review/meta-analysis, findings depend on assumptions and scenarios in cited studies, and the wide ranges reported (e.g., less than 50 to 1500 EJ/year) limit precision; no new primary experimental data are presented.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.rser.2014.01.056

Cites

71 of 71 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

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Claims the paper makes

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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds the land required for cultivation of feedstocks declines to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).”
- Also stated in: § 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production · plain
  “By adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds the land required for cultivation of feedstocks declines to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
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- Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
- Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Results reveal that the energy sector uses about 100 EJ globally in 2055 and up to 300 EJ in the year 2095 from dedicated energy crops, if all suitable land for agricultural production was made available for land expansion.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
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In the paper
“The share of waste biodiesel feedstocks such as animal fat and used cooking oil increased to 15% in total biodiesel output [72].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [72] Licht FO. World ethanol and biofuel Report (vol. 10, no. 9). London: Agra Informa; 2013.
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In the paper
“In global production and transport of wood pellets exceeded 22 million t, and in 2012 about 8.2 million t of pellets were traded internationally, 40% of pellets were shipped from North America to Europe [59,82].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
- Not checked yetcites [82] Lamers P, Marchal D, Schouwenberg PP, Cocchi M, Junginger M. Global Wood ChipTrade for Energy. IEA Bioenergy, Task 40; 2012.
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In the paper
“About two-thirds of pellet production is used in small heat plants and one-third in larger power plants [83].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [83] Goh CS, Junginger M, Bradley D, Hektor B, Wild M, Deutmeyer M, Schouwenberg PP, Hess JR, Jay Shankar Tumuluru, JS, Bradburn K, editors. Low Cost, Long Distance Biomass Supply Chains. IEA Bioenergy, Task 40; 2013.
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In the paper
“Currently, less than 3% of global agricultural land is used for cultivating biofuel crops and LUC associated with bioenergy represents only around 1% of the total emissions caused by land-use change globally most of which are produced by changes in land use for food and fodder production, or other reasons [87].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [87] Berndes G, Bird N, Cowie A. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation; 2010. 〈www.ieabioenergy.com〉.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In case of biodiesel production 50-60% of rapeseed (rapeseed cake/meal) and 80% of soybean (soybean meal) is returned to the feed sector and the net land requirement decrease to around 6 million ha.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
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- Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
- Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
In the paper
“Currently available values indicate a high GHG mitigation potential of 60-120%,foot_3 similar to the 70-110% mitigation level of sugarcane ethanol and better than most current biofuels [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
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“In Brazil biofuel is just requiring 3% (ethanol 1.5%) of all cropland (included pastureland) available in the country even if more than 50% of sugar cane area (20% of global area) is used for ethanol production [authors's calculation].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [authors's calculation]
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In the paper
“Typical emission values over the whole period are on average 300 to 1600 t CO 2 equivalent/ha for the conversion of forest to agricultural land, and 75 to 364 t CO 2 equivalent/ha for grassland or savannah [4,29,30].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [4] Searchinger, 2008, Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change, Science source
- Not checked yetcites [29] Fargione, 2008, Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt, Science source
- Not checked yetcites [30] Van Minnen, JG. The terrestrial carbon cycle on the regional and global scale. Modeling uncertainties and policy relevance [Ph.D. thesis]. Wageningen University; 2008.
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“In the last 35 years global energy supplies have nearly doubled but the relative contribution from renewables has hardly changed at around 13% [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
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In the paper
“Fritsche [31] presented an average value of 5 t CO 2 equivalent/ha per year.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [31] Fritsche U. Bioenergy GHG emission balances including direct and indirect land use change effects. In: presented at the IEA workshop “Sustainability certification of biofuels and bioenergy”, 29 January 2009, Brussels.
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In the paper
“However, the worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited, because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Abstract
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- Rests on an assumption: Land is multi-functional and is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.
In the paper
“One of the few technologies that may result in negative emissions is the combination of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) [7].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [7] Haszeldine, 2009, Carbon capture and storage: how green can black be, Science source
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In the paper
“Mandatory bioenergy production can lead to decreasing prices of crude oil, and thereby lead to an increase in crude oil and total energy consumption.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [33] Barker, 2009, The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy, Energy Effic source
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In the paper
“Also important are the results reached in the Global Energy Assessment [13], which concludes on a potential equal to 160-270 EJ/year in 2050.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [13] GEA. Global Energy assessment – toward a sustainable future. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Laxenburg: The International Institute for Applied System Analysis; 2012.
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In the paper
“Bioenergy currently provides roughly 10% of global supplies and accounts for roughly 80% of the energy derived from renewable sources [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
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In the paper
“The world's population continues to grow and, over the next 40 years, agricultural production will have to increase by some 60% [1].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] FAO, 2011
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In the paper
“This is foreseen by European Environment Agency (EEA) to rise to around 10% by 2020, or approximately half of the projected renewable energy output, according to EU Member States' National Renewable Energy Plans [35].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [35] EC. Renewable energy, national renewable energy action plans. European Commission. 〈http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/action_plan_en.htm〉; 2010.
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In the paper
“In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100 [20].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [20] Edenhofer, 2010, The economics of low stabilization: model comparison of mitigation strategies and costs, Energy J
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In the paper
“Forests are a major storage of carbon [22], so there is an adverse impact when forest carbon is released for the purpose of bioenergy production [23].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [22] Gumpenberger, 2010, Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses – implications for REDD, Environ Res Lett source
- Not checked yetcites [23] Fargione, 2008, Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt, Science source
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In the paper
“The higher value resulting from an optimistic approach assumes a highly developed agricultural system, the lower is the result of a pessimistic approach with high population growth and extreme measures to avoid biodiversity loss [14].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [14] Berndes, 2003, The contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply: a review of 17 studies Biomass and Bioenergy
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In the paper
“This effect is rather uncertain, but could reach as much as 50% of potential gains [33].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [33] Barker, 2009, The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy, Energy Effic source
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In the paper
“But deforestation not only removes a carbon sink, it is also regarded as the greatest threat to terrestrial biodiversity as forests are the most biologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems [24].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [24] Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends findings of the condition and trends working group. In: Hassan R, Scholes R, Ash N, editors. Washington, DC: Island Press; 2005. pp. 77–122.
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“In the scenario without forest conservation, bioenergy demand increases up to about 300 EJ in 2095 with a demand of about 100 EJ in 2055.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
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In the paper
“Recently, the IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy [12] reported a huge range of 50-500 EJ/year.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [12] IPPC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012.
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In the paper
“Recent research has found that these bioenergy sources have their drawbacks [3,4] and turned attention to the use of ligno-cellulosic feedstocks, such as perennial grasses and short rotation woody crops for bioenergy production [5,6].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [3] Crutzen, 2008, N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels, Atmos Chem Phys
- Not checked yetcites [4] Searchinger, 2008, Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change, Science source
- Not checked yetcites [5] Schmer, 2008, Net energy of cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
- Not checked yetcites [6] Melillo, 2009, Indirect emissions from biofuels: how important, Science source
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“Based on this diverse range of feedstocks, the technical potential for biomass is estimated in the literature to be possibly as high as 1500 EJ/year by 2050 [8].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [8] Smeets, 2007, A bottom-up assessment and review of global bioenergy potentials to 2050, Energy Combust Sci source
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In the paper
“The EEA has revised its estimate of potential bioenergy production in the EU first published in 2006 [36], reducing the estimate by approximately 40% [37].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [36] EEA. How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment?, EEA Report. No 7/2006, European Environment Agency. ISBN 92–9167–849-X; 2006. 67 pp.
- Not checked yetcites [37] EEA, EU. Bioenergy potential from a resource-efficiency perspective. European Environment Agency. EEA Report No 6/2013; 2013. 60 pp. ISBN 978-92-9213-397-9 doi:10.2800/92247.
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In the paper
“Food losses in industrialized countries are as high as in developing countries, but in developing countries more than 40% of the food losses occur at post harvest and processing levels, while in industrialized countries, more than 40% of the food losses occur at retail and consumer levels [45].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] FAOSTAT. FAOSTAT. Rome: FAO; 2011. 〈http://www.faostat.fao.org/default.aspx〉.
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In the paper
“Competition for land may be limited, as production of feedstocks for advanced biofuels are expected to be grown mainly outside cultivated land, and that some 100 million ha would be sufficient to achieve the target biofuel share in world transport fuels in 2050 [49].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [49] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA; 2010.
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In the paper
“As a relevant outcome, the world food security situation is steadily improving, as indicated by a consistent rise of average food consumption per capita and the progressive reduction of undernourishment in the developing world [53].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [53] FAO, WFP, IFAD. The state of food insecurity in the World 2012. Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization; 2012.
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In the paper
“If current trends of agricultural intensification and livestock feeding efficiency growth are projected into the future, meeting global food demand might be achieved without reducing the amount of annual plant production remaining in ecosystems, but only in the absence of large-scale additional bioenergy production [40].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [40] Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
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In the paper
“Globally, an average of 35% of potential crop yield is lost to preharvest pests [44].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [44] Oerke, 2006, Crop losses to pests, J Agric Sci source
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In the paper
“However, much of this grass-and woodland provide food and wood for cooking and heating to local communities, or is in use as (extensive) grazing ground for livestock and only some 700 to 800 million ha of this land is suitable for economically viable lignocellulosic feedstock production [50].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [50] Fischer G, Hizsnyik E, Prieler S, Shah M, van Velthuizen H.. Biofuels and Food Security. The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) and International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, Austria; 2009. 228 pp.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10-25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [54] Schmitz, 2013, Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison, Agric Econ
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In the scenario without forest conservation, cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops increases total cropland to 1830 million ha, but forest exclusion limits total cropland to 1520 million ha in 2095.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“According to FAO [52], more than 80% of the food/feed global future demand will be fulfilled by increment in productivity.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [52] FAO. Global Agriculture Towards 2050. In: Paper Prepared by the High-Level Expert Forum for the Conference How to Feed the World by 2050. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization; 2009.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The historic time for each energy source to grow from 1 to 10 EJ in primary energy production was 12 years for nuclear, 33 years for crude oil, 39 years for natural gas, 52 years for coal, and 59 years for hydro-power [59].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Due to high dependence of the global food sector on fossil fuels the volatility of energy markets can have a potentially significant impact on food prices, and this would have serious implications for food security and sustainable development [56].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [56] IPCC. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (SRREN). Edenhofer O, Madruga RP, Sokona Y, editors. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2011. source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Of this total 80% was provided by fossil fuels, about 10% by bioenergy mainly from wood combustion, 5.5% from nuclear, 2.2% from hydro, and 0.4% from other renewable energy sources.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The global share of electricity from renewables in 2010 was 20%, with over 70% of electricity provided by hydropower and the rest was produced using wind, solar, biomass and waste-topower, geothermal, marine and small hydro technologies.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Future renewable energy shares are in the range of 15-20% in conservative scenarios, 30-45% in moderate scenarios, and 50-95%”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [60] IEA. The Renewable Energy 2013. Medium-term market Report. A growing role for renewables in the energy mix. International Energy Agency, Paris; 2013.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“All energy scenarios portray a mixture of energy supply technologies combined with energy demand growth and energy efficiency improvements [60].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [60] IEA. The Renewable Energy 2013. Medium-term market Report. A growing role for renewables in the energy mix. International Energy Agency, Paris; 2013.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Large energy crop potentials can only be justified by assuming the use of a large fraction of the Earth's surface or yields far exceeding current net primary production, or both [10].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [10] Haberl, 2013, Bioenergy: how much can we expect for 2050, Environ Res Lett source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Heating accounted for the vast majority of biomass use, including heat produced from modern biomass and the traditional, contributing an estimated 6-7% of total global primary energy demand.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Based on this diverse range of feedstocks, the technical potential for biomass is estimated to be possibly as high as 1500 EJ/year by 2050 [8].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [8] Smeets, 2007, A bottom-up assessment and review of global bioenergy potentials to 2050, Energy Combust Sci source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Useful heat energy from modern renewable sources accounted for an estimated 4.1% of total final energy use; hydropower made up about 3.7%; and an estimated 1.9% was provided by power from wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, and by biofuels.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Furthermore, any increase in the use of fossil fuels to boost production will lead to greater GHG emissions, which the global community has pledged to reduce [57].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [57] FAO, Energy-smart food for people and climate. Issue paper. Rome: FAO; 2011 〈http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2454e/i2454e00.pdf〉
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The energy efficiency of photosynthesis is usually o1% under field conditions [63] far below the efficiency of commercial solar photovoltaic cells of 12-20% [64].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [63] Larcher, 2003
- Not checked yetcites [64] IPCC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Energy consumption is still increasing rapidly, with an approximate 540 EJ consumed at the primary energy level in 2010 [58].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The global harvest of major crops (cereals, oil crops, sugar crops, roots, tubers and pulses) corresponds to about 60 EJ/year and the global industrial roundwood production corresponds to 15 to 20 EJ/year [45].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] FAOSTAT. FAOSTAT. Rome: FAO; 2011. 〈http://www.faostat.fao.org/default.aspx〉.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Biomass accounts for about 10% of global primary energy supply (54 EJ in 2010) and is the world's fourth largest source of energy (following oil, coal, and natural gas).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“On a global basis, it is estimated that renewable energy accounted for 13% of the total 492 EJ (Exajoules)foot_1 or 12,300 million t oil equivalent (Mt) of primary energy supply in 2008 [58].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“which can be compared to the current world primary energy supply of about 500 EJ/year [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Shortrotation energy crops, grown on agricultural land specifically for energy purposes, currently provide about 3-4% of the total biomass resource consumed annually [58].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The world gets about 19% of its energy from renewables, including about 9.3% from traditional biomass and about 9.7% from modern renewables (Fig. 2).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In the case of residues, opportunity costs can occur, and the scattered distribution of residues may render it difficult in some places to recover them [49].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [49] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA; 2010.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“They also are seeing small but increasing use in the aviation and marine sectors [69].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [69] 2011
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Further, 10% of the natural gas vehicles in Germany used compressed biomethane fuel instead of compressed natural gas methane [75].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [75] Müller C. Biomethane in the Fast Lane, German Energy Agency (DENA), 27 March 2013, At: 〈www.dena.de/presse-medien/pressemitteilungen/biomethan-auf-der-ueberholspur.html〉
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The study [37] concludes that significant amounts of biomass can technically be available to support ambitious renewable energy targets, even if strict environmental constraints are applied.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [37] EEA, EU. Bioenergy potential from a resource-efficiency perspective. European Environment Agency. EEA Report No 6/2013; 2013. 60 pp. ISBN 978-92-9213-397-9 doi:10.2800/92247.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“China, at 2.1 billion liters, remained Asia's largest ethanol producer [73].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [73] Lane J. IEA says cellulosic biofuels capacity has tripled since 2010, International Energy Agency, New Task 39 global report, Biofuels Digest, 5 April 2013, 〈www.biofuelsdigest.com〉.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Reaching such a level of supply would require roughly a doubling of global biomass harvest in less than four decades and would result in massive increases in humanity's pressures on land ecosystems [66].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [66] Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Given the biospheric constraints outlined above, it seems impossible that bioenergy could physically provide more than 250 EJ/year in 2050 [9,65,66], substantially below many published bioenergy projections.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] Haberl, 2010, The global technical potential of bio-energy in 2050 considering sustainability constraints, Curr Opin Environ Sustain source
- Not checked yetcites [65] Smith, 2012, Global bioenergy capacity as constrained by observed biospheric productivity rates, BioScience source
- Not checked yetcites [66] Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In addition, 2250 sewage sludge facilities are operating in Europe; approximately 2% of these plants upgrade the biogas to higher-quality biomethane for use as a vehicle fuel or for injection into the gas grid [74].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [74] Downing L. Rising trend: poop powers ski resorts and water treatment center in Europe, RenewableEnergyWorld.com, 20 February 2013.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“a total of 1553 Mha of land was in use for agricultural production in 2011, it was 1371 Mha in 1961, an increase of 182 Mha in 50 years over pastures, deforested (in some cases) and degraded lands [68].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [68] FAOSTAT (2012) World Agricultural Harvested Are. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization; 2011.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The IEA (2012) found that projections for biofuels in aviation ranged from a few percent to 30% by 2050 [76].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [76] IEA, 2012
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Given the technical approval (ASTM D7566) of the 50% biofuel/kerosene mix in 2012 there has certainly been a noticeable increase in interest, and a forecast in the UK Sustainable Aviation Roadmap that by 2050 sustainable biofuels will contribute an 18% reduction in aviation emissions [77].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [77] Green Aviation. Aviation progressing rapidly on biofuels; 2013. 〈http://greenaviation.org/〉
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The passenger vehicle fleet will double to 1.7 billion in 2035 [70].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [70] BNEF, 2012
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Outside of Europe, a diverse group of at least 20 other countries target energy shares in the 2020-2030 time frame that range from 10% to 50%, including Algeria, China, Indonesia, Jamaica, Jordan, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Samoa, Senegal, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, and Vietnam [59].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The annual value of renewable energy capacity installed will double in real terms to $395 billion in 2020, rising to $460 billion in 2030, compared with $195 billion in 2010according to analysis company Bloomberg New Energy Finance [80].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.3. Financing advanced biofuel
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [80] BNEF. Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook. Bloomberg New Energy Finance; 2011. 〈https://www.bnef.com/PressReleases/view/173〉
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“They certified advanced biofuels as meeting the ASTM International specification for bio-derived aviation fuels, “Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids” (HEFA) fuel [77].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [77] Green Aviation. Aviation progressing rapidly on biofuels; 2013. 〈http://greenaviation.org/〉
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“They seem to be viable for light vehicles and short distances [72].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [72] Licht FO. World ethanol and biofuel Report (vol. 10, no. 9). London: Agra Informa; 2013.
Strength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In Europe, 1116 new cities and towns joined the Covenant of Mayors in 2012, committing to a 20% CO 2 reduction target and to plans for climate mitigation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy [59].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Despite increasing pressure in major markets such as Europe and the United States, due to growing debate over the overall sustainability of first generation biofuels, regulatory policies promoting the use of biofuels existed in at least 49 countries in 2012 [59].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Lufthansa has a partnership with Finnish company Neste and is using a 50% biofuel/kerosene mix on all flights of one dedicated A320 aircraft between Frankfurt and Hamburg for several months, with no adverse events and no apparent differences in engine performance or exhaust deposits [77].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [77] Green Aviation. Aviation progressing rapidly on biofuels; 2013. 〈http://greenaviation.org/〉
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedSingle case
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Renewable energy is spreading to new regions and countries and becoming increasingly affordable in developing and developed countries alike [79].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.3. Financing advanced biofuel
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [79] BNEF Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2013, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2013. Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF; 2013. 〈http://www.fs-unep-centre.org〉
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Bio-methane, fuelwood, charcoal, briquettes, and agricultural residues are mainly traded locally; whereas wood pellets, wood chips, biodiesel, and ethanol are traded both nationally and internationally [82].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [82] Lamers P, Marchal D, Schouwenberg PP, Cocchi M, Junginger M. Global Wood ChipTrade for Energy. IEA Bioenergy, Task 40; 2012.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Vehicle efficiency improvements account for one-third of emissions reduction in the transport sector; the use of biofuels is the second-largest contributor, together with electrification of the fleet accounting for 20% (2.1 Gt CO 2 -equivalent) of emissions saving [86].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [86] IEA, 2010
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In 2010, the EPA designated Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an advanced biofuel due to its 61% reduction of total life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, including direct indirect land use change emissions [85].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [85] UNICA. EPA reaffirms sugarcane biofuel is advanced renewable fuel with 61% less emissions than gasoline; 2010. 〈http://english.unica.com.br/releases/show.asp?rls〉
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“DDGS can be used to replace some soybean meal as well as corn in livestock and poultry rations.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Digestive systems of hogs and poultry are less suited for feeding high levels of DDGS, although it can be used at up to 15% to 20% of their rations.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“About 90% of DDGS is used in the ruminant sector and only 10% in the hog and poultry sectors [90].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nonetheless practically all bioenergy systems deliver large GHG savings if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissionsincluding those arising due to land use changeare kept low.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Bioenergy systems replace fossil-based energy and bioenergy production emissions, including those arising due to land use change, are kept low.
In the paper
“In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for the Renewable Fuel Standard program [84].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [84] EPA. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Regulations & Standards United States Environmental Protection Agency; 2013. 〈http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/documents/420f13005.pdf〉.
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“This expansion would include some cropland, as well as pastures and currently unused land, the latter in particular for production of lignocellulosic biomass [49].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [49] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA; 2010.
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.

222 of 222

The paper relies on this without support.
A quarter of all agricultural land has already suffered degradation.
“Meanwhile a quarter of all agricultural land has already suffered degradation, and there is a deepening awareness of the long term consequences of a loss of biodiversity with the prospect of climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Land is multi-functional and is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.
“However, the worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited, because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Biomass contains all the elements found in fossil resources, albeit in different combinations.
“As biomass contains all the elements found in fossil resources, albeit in different combinations, therefore present and developing technologies can lead to a future based on renewable, sustainable and low carbon economies.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Biomass could sustainably contribute between a quarter and a third of the future global energy mix.
“It is reasonable to assume that biomass could sustainably contribute between a quarter and a third of the future global energy mix.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
No additional land use effect regarding productive land occurs when unproductive land is converted to bioenergy feedstock production.
“no additional land use effect regarding productive land is assumed to occur here”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Global availability of cellulosic biomass without any trade restrictions is assumed.
“assumption on global availability of cellulosic biomass without any trade restrictions may overestimate calculated bioenergy potentials”
The authors state this as an assumption.
All suitable land for agricultural production is made available for land expansion.
“if all suitable land for agricultural production was made available for land expansion”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Co-emissions from deforestation, biodiversity issues, and impacts on food and water security are not considered.
“Without considering co-emissions from deforestation, biodiversity issues, and impacts on food and water security”
The authors state this as an assumption.
No indirect LUC effects are considered.
“if no indirect LUC effects are considered”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Bioenergy systems replace fossil-based energy and bioenergy production emissions, including those arising due to land use change, are kept low.
“if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissionsincluding those arising due to land use changeare kept low”
The paper relies on this without support.
DDGS has been one of the most economically competitive sources of energy and proteins available on the world feed market over the past several years.
“Over the past several years, DDGS has been one of the most economically competitive sources of energy and proteins available on the world feed market.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Only the starch portion of the corn kernel is converted to ethanol, while the protein, fat, fiber and other components are concentrated and passed through the process to the DDGS.
“Only the starch portion of the corn kernel is converted to ethanol, while the protein, fat, fiber and other components are concentrated and passed through the process to the DDGS.”
The paper relies on this without support.
There is limited demand for glycerin for food, beverage, personal care and oral products, as well as pharmaceutical and other industrial uses.
“There is a limited demand for glycerin, the by-product of biodiesel production for a number of food, beverage, personal care and oral products, as well as pharmaceutical and other industrial uses.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Research at different countries has found that glycerin can be used effectively in livestock rations to replace fossil-based glycerin.
“To deal with that potential problem and to create additional markets for the by-product of biodiesel, research at different countries has found that glycerin can be used effectively in livestock rations to replace fossil-based glycerin.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
“The biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
“In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Increased population density, coupled with changes in dietary habits in developing countries towards high quality food, is projected to increase demand for food production by 60% by 2050.
“The increased population density, coupled with changes in dietary habits in developing countries towards high quality food is projected to increase demand for food production by 60% by 2050.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Recent estimates on the potential global ligno-cellulosic bioenergy supply range from less than 100 EJ/year to 1500 EJ/year for 2050.
“Recent estimates on the potential global ligno-cellulosic bioenergy supply range from less than 100 EJ/yearto 1500 EJ yearfor 2050.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100.
“In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Globally, advanced biofuels capacity is expected to expand only slowly, though the first commercial-scale plants in the United States and Europe were recently commissioned.
“Globally, advanced biofuels capacity is expected to expand only slowly, though the first commercial-scale plants in the United States and Europe were recently commissioned.”

20 of 20

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

Two totals are given for 2012 fuel ethanol production
Minor
The text reports 86 billion liters of global fuel ethanol production in 2012, while Fig. 4 gives a total of 85 billion liters for the same year.
Conflicting net land requirements for fuel ethanol
Minor
The net area needed for fuel ethanol is stated as 21 million hectares, but the preceding calculation says it declines to 15 million hectares after accounting for co-products.

2 of 2

Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
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Crop losses to pests
OERKE, E.-C. (2006) · The Journal of Agricultural Science · doi:10.1017/s0021859605005708 · Cited by 5,283
Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D., & Yu, T.-H. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1151861 · Cited by 4,888
Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt
Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., & Hawthorne, P. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1152747 · Cited by 3,902
Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050
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Untitled work
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Physiological Plant Ecology
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The State of Food Insecurity in the World
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Show all 73 references

2 of the 73 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 10

IPPC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012.
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Authors: Popp, J., Lakner, Z., Harangi-Rákos, M., & Fári, M.
Affiliations: University of Debrecen (HU)
Corvinus University of Budapest (HU)
Corresponding author: Popp, J.
ORCID: Popp, J.
Lakner, Z.
Fári, M.
Venue: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2014-04
Volume: 32
Pages: 559-578
ISSN: 1364-0321 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2014.01.056
OpenAlex: W1988730360
Semantic Scholar: 467da42573e1d57c3ca934e50ed63d5278043467
Cited by: 967
References: 73
Citations by year: 2026: 44 · 2025: 84 · 2024: 96 · 2023: 92 · 2022: 112 · 2021: 120 · 2020: 108 · 2019: 78 · 2018: 92 · 2017: 58 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 14
FWCI: 93.25
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by-nc-nd
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ (vor)
Locations: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
University of Debrecen Electronic Archive (University of Debrecen) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
Physical Sciences › Engineering › Biomedical Engineering › Biofuel production and bioconversion
Keywords: biofuels, land use competition, food security, energy security, biomass, climate change mitigation, water scarcity, global food prices, environmental impacts of bioenergy, renewable energy

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The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment

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