Global bioenergy capacity as constrained by observed biospheric productivity rates
Abstract
Virtually all global energy forecasts include an expectation that bioenergy will be a substantial future energy source. However, the scale of this potential resource remains poorly understood because of uncertain land availability and yield expectations. Here, we used climate-constrained, satellite-derived net primary productivity data computed for 110 million square kilometers of terrestrial plant production as an upper-envelope constraint on primary bioenergy potential (PBP). We estimated the maximum PBP to realistically range from 12% to 35% of 2009 global primary energy consumption, with yield potential ranging from 6.6 to 18.8 megajoules per square meter per year—roughly four times lower than previous evaluations. Our results highlight many recent bioenergy evaluations as overoptimistic, which we attribute to a failure to adequately apply biophysical constraints in estimates of yield potential. We do not advocate bioenergy production at the levels reported in this analysis; instead, we simply report the ceiling for PBP based on current planetary productivity.
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Given biospheric constraints, it seems impossible that bioenergy could physically provide more than 250 EJ/year in 2050, substantially below many published bioenergy projections.
“Given the biospheric constraints outlined above, it seems impossible that bioenergy could physically provide more than 250 EJ/year in 2050 [9,65,66], substantially below many published bioenergy projections.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [65]
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Haberl, H. (2015) · doi:10.1002/9781118933916.ch1 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Sustainable and efficient allocation of limited blue and green water resources
Schyns, J. F. (2018) · doi:10.3990/1.9789036545037 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Pushing the Planetary Boundaries—Response
Running, S. W., & Smith, W. K. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.338.6113.1420-a · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Faaij, A. P. C. (2018) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4939-2493-6_259-3 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Bioenergy: how much can we expect for 2050?
Haberl, H., Erb, K., Krausmann, F., Running, S., Searchinger, T. D., & Smith, W. K. (2013) · TIB AV-Portal · doi:10.5446/39473
A Natural Resource-Systems approach: Targeting the Ecological Transition at the Regional Scale
Weber, J.-L., Fernandez-Fernandez, E., Malwé, C., Salles, J.-M. A., Dutilleul, F. C., & Negrutiu, I. (2014) · HAL
Productivity of fodder areas according to Terra Modis data
Zhukova, E. Y., Николаевна, Б. И., & Zhukov, A. A. (2019) · Siberian Herald of Agricultural Science · doi:10.26898/0370-8799-2019-4-4
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Mensah, T. N. O., Oyewo, A. S., & Breyer, C. (2026) · Smart Energy · doi:10.1016/j.segy.2026.100276
- Authors
- Smith, W. K., Zhao, M., & Running, S. W.
- Venue
- BioScience
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2012-10
- Volume
- 62
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 911-922
- ISSN
- 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
- 1525-3244
- OpenAlex
- W2148495614
- Cited by
- 70
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 18.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- BioScience (publishedVersion)
- The Mathematics Enthusiast (submittedVersion)
- BioOne Complete (BioOne) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNH09ZDA001N)
- Energy Biosciences Institute
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanics of Materials › Forest Biomass Utilization and Management
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
- Keywords
- bioenergy potential, net primary productivity, yield potential, biophysical constraints, land availability, energy resource assessment, satellite remote sensing, global energy consumption
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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