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The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment
Open accessAbstract
The increasing prices and environmental impacts of fossil fuels have made the production of biofuels to reach unprecedented volumes over the last 15 years. Given the increasing land requirement for biofuel production, the assessment of the impacts that extensive biofuel production may cause to food supply and to the environment has considerable importance. Agriculture faces some major inter-connected challenges in delivering food security at a time of increasing pressures from population growth, changing consumption patterns and dietary preferences, and post-harvest losses. At the same time, there are growing opportunities and demands for the use of biomass to provide additional renewables, energy for heat, power and fuel, pharmaceuticals and green chemical feedstocks. Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is expected to play a substantial role in future energy systems. However, the worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited, because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection. Furthermore, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land availability for biomass plantations. Large-scale cultivation of dedicated biomass is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, global food prices and water scarcity. Therefore, integrated policies for energy, land use and water management are needed. As biomass contains all the elements found in fossil resources, albeit in different combinations, therefore present and developing technologies can lead to a future based on renewable, sustainable and low carbon economies. This article presents [1] risks to food and energy security [2] estimates of bioenergy potential with regard to biofuel production, and [3] the challenges of the environmental impact.
Overview
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This review assesses global bioenergy expansion and its implications for food, energy, and environment, concluding that bioenergy has large but limited potential and that integrated land, water, and energy policies are needed. It finds that sustainable bioenergy potential is much lower than technical estimates and that indirect land-use change, food prices, and water scarcity are key risks.
Key findings
- Global technical bioenergy potential estimates span less than 50 to 1500 EJ/year in 2050; sustainability-constrained scenarios indicate 200–500 EJ/year, while some analyses suggest a biophysical upper limit of about 250 EJ/year in 2050.
- Global cropland used for biofuels is about 2.5% (40 million gross hectares), falling to 1.5% net when co-products substitute for grains and oilseeds; by 2050 land for biofuel production would need to rise to around 100 million ha (about 6% of arable land). Global food production must increase by 60% by 2050, with crop yield growth slowing to 0.8% per year (2005/2007–2050) versus 1.7% per year (1961–2007).
- Land-use change contributes about 15% of global GHG emissions; bioenergy-related land-use change represents only around 1% of total land-use-change emissions. Indirect land-use change emissions are reported at 30 to more than 100% of fossil fuel emissions, and indirect emissions are in the order of 10–40% of emissions from substituted fossil fuels. Forest conservation reduces bioenergy supply from about 100 EJ in 2055 to 70 EJ and from about 300 EJ in 2095 to 270 EJ.
- One metric tonne of DDGS can replace on average 1.22 metric tonnes of feed consisting of corn and soybean meal in the United States; accounting for co-products reduces the land required for feedstock cultivation to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).
Methods
- The paper conducts a meta-analysis contrasting and combining results from various studies, biomass supply scenarios, and global models linked to land, water, energy use, and climate change in terms of food-, energy-, and environmental security.
- Search terms included food-, energy- and environmental security, food demand, yield trends, renewable energy, biomass, biofuels, by-products for livestock feeding from biofuel production, land-use change, biofuels and the environment, sustainability requirements, and climate change mitigation; references covered 2001 to 2013, with supplemental bibliography searches.
- Calculations were made for the land required for cultivation of feedstocks adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds; the EU policy objective of 20% GHG emission reductions using 20% renewables by 2020 is also presented.
Limitations
- The paper states that results are potentially biased because studies might differ in their focus on potential or realized effects, their use of different baselines for comparisons, and other background conditions; there is also a lack of available publications related to the feed value of increasing biofuels by-products.
- The paper states that precise quantification of GHG savings for specific systems is often hampered by lack of reliable data, different methods of quantification lead to variation in estimates, and indirect effects are uncertain and vary in time with no fixed indirect emission factor.
- Evident from the text: as a review/meta-analysis, findings depend on assumptions and scenarios in cited studies, and the wide ranges reported (e.g., less than 50 to 1500 EJ/year) limit precision; no new primary experimental data are presented.
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Claims the paper makes
139 Not checked yet · 107 No basis given · 106 Own interpretation · 3 Own method · 2 Own result
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In the paper
“By adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds the land required for cultivation of feedstocks declines to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).”
- Also stated in: § 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production · plain
“By adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds the land required for cultivation of feedstocks declines to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
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- Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
- Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
- Also stated in: § 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production · plain
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In the paper
“According to the literature review, the global technical potential for bioenergy, considering also demand for other land-use, ranges from less than 50 EJ to 1500 EJ in 2050 (Table 1).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
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In the paper
“and it increases CO 2 emissions from deforestation.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
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In the paper
“However, cultivation of bioenergy crops has several effects: it increases cropland expansion;”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
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In the paper
“it takes over a huge share in total cropland;”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
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In the paper
“Results reveal that the energy sector uses about 100 EJ globally in 2055 and up to 300 EJ in the year 2095 from dedicated energy crops, if all suitable land for agricultural production was made available for land expansion.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
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- The authors state this as an assumption: All suitable land for agricultural production is made available for land expansion.
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In the paper
“it is mainly located in areas that today are occupied by intact ecosystems;”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
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In the paper
“The share of waste biodiesel feedstocks such as animal fat and used cooking oil increased to 15% in total biodiesel output [72].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [72] Licht FO. World ethanol and biofuel Report (vol. 10, no. 9). London: Agra Informa; 2013.
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In the paper
“Nearly 25% of U.S. ethanol feed output is exported to countries around the world to feed livestock and poultry.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
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In the paper
“For the energy crops wheat and rapeseed, depending on assumptions about the yields and the protein contents of the co-products, the reduction of land-use for soybean production can be 50% to 100% of the land needed for the wheat and rapeseed.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
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In the paper
“The bioethanol share in total grains demandi.e.corn, wheat and other coarse grainsis about 8% of global production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
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In the paper
“By adding co-products substituted for corn and soybean meal the net hectares needed for fuel ethanol decline to 21 million [authors' calculation].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [authors' calculation]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
- Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the EU 5-6% of cropland is used for biofuel production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“In case of biodiesel production 50-60% of rapeseed (rapeseed cake/meal) and 80% of soybean (soybean meal) is returned to the feed sector and the net land requirement decrease to around 6 million ha.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
- Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By adding the feed value of ethanol by-product dried distillers's grains and solubles (DDGS), the net shares decline by one third to slightly above 5%.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Due to rising bioenergy prices, restrictions for land availability decrease bioenergy use in the energy system in 2055 considerably to about 70 EJ.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
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In the paper
“Without considering co-emissions from deforestation, biodiversity issues, and impacts on food and water security, the biomass resource potential could deliver a considerable amount of the world's primary energy demand up to 2095.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Co-emissions from deforestation, biodiversity issues, and impacts on food and water security are not considered.
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In the paper
“It means that not all the grains used for ethanol production should be subtracted from the supplies since some 35% is returned to the feed sector in the form of co-products (mainly DDGS) so the land required for feedstock production declines to 15 million ha.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
- Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The biodiesel share in rapeseed, soybean and palm oil demand is around 10% of global vegetable oil production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
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In the paper
“The U.S. ethanol industry produced about 36 million metric tonnes of DDGS in the 2010/11 marketing year.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It means that not all the grains used for ethanol production should be subtracted from the supplies since some 35% is returned to the feed sector in the form of co-products (mainly DDGS) so the land required for feedstock production declines to 15 million ha.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
- Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land availability for biomass plantations.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Abstract
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In the paper
“For this specific scenario, biomass from dedicated bioenergy crops will contribute 25% to the total global demand for primary energy carriers.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
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In the paper
“However, forest exclusion for the purpose of biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation affects the availability of cost-efficient biomass for energy production significantly.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
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In the paper
“Estimates of global primary bioenergy potentials available around 2050 published in the last 5 years span range from 30 to 1300 EJ/year [9,10].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
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“However, most biomass supply scenarios that take into account sustainability constraints, indicate an annual potential of between 200 and 500 EJ/year [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
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“A sensitivity analysis conducted by Dornburg et al. narrows that range to approximately 200-500 EJ/year in 2050 when taking into consideration water limitations, biodiversity protection and food demand.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [11] Dornburg, 2010, Bioenergy revisited: key factors in global potentials of bioenergy, Energy Environ Sci source
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In the paper
“Large-scale bioenergy production and associated additional demand for irrigation may further intensify existing pressures on water resources [21].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [21] Fingerman, 2010, Accounting for the water impacts of ethanol production, Environ Res Lett source
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In the paper
“So these indirect emissions are in the order of 10-40% of the emissions of the substituted fossil fuels [28].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [28] Ros, 2010
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In the paper
“Such a wide range is due to differences in methodology as well as assumptions on crop yields and available land.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
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In the paper
“The amount of bioenergy supplied is reduced to about 70 EJ in 2055 and 270 EJ in 2095 in the scenario with 100% forest conservation [27].”
- Also stated in: § Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range · plain
“The amount of bioenergy supplied is reduced to about 70 EJ in 2055 and 270 EJ in 2095 in the scenario with 100% forest conservation [27].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range · plain
In the paper
“But bioenergy may cause significant indirect effects in other production systems too [28].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [28] Ros, 2010
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In the paper
“This has to be compensated by the emission savings from biofuel use, in many cases varying between 2 and 20 t/ha per year [32].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [32] Eickhout B, Van den Born GJ, Notenboom J, Van Oorschot M, Ros JPM, Van Vuuren DP, en Westhoek HJ. Local and global consequences of the EU renewable directive for biofuels. Rapport nr. MNP 500143001, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands; 2008.
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In the paper
“Due to increasing bioenergy demand the global rate of yield increase would have to rise to 0.8% per year.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
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In the paper
“Increased biofuels production could also reduce water availability for food production, as more water is diverted to production of biofuel feedstocks [46,47].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [46] Chakravorty, 2009, Fuel versus food, Ann Rev Resour Econ source
- Not checked yetcites [47] Hoekstra, 2010, The water footprint of bio-energy
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In the paper
“Hence, it seems unrealistic to expect that yield growth of food crops would free up large areas currently used as croplands for planting energy crops.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
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In the paper
“Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [54] Schmitz, 2013, Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison, Agric Econ
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Growth of human population to 9 billion around 2050, continuing economic growth and transitions towards richer diets with a higher share of animal products in emerging economies will probably result in a growth of global food production by 60% [38,39].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [38] Alexandratos N Bruinsma J. World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision (Rome: FAO); 2012.
- Not checked yetcites [39] Tilman, 2011, Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“In the scenario without forest conservation, strongest growth in the regional water price index, i.e. changes in shadow prices for irrigation water relative to the reference scenario until 2095, can be found in Latin America (210%), the Newly Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (170%) and Pacific Asia (130%).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“In the past 40 years, the cropland area required to meet humanity's rising food demand grew by approximately 30%, despite substantial agricultural intensification [41].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [41] Kastner, 2012, Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Total cropland (excluding abandoned land) increases from 1442 million ha in 2005 to 1770 million ha in 2095.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The food price index rises most strongly in Europe (22%) and in the the Newly Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (16%) until 2095 if climate change mitigation is taken into account and all suitable land is available for land expansion.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Forest-based industries (pulp and paper, building materials etc) for example, will be affected by the increased use of wood for energy conversion, both negatively and positively [48].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [48] European Commission. Report from the commission to the council and the European parliament on sustainability requirements for the use of solid and gaseous biomass sources in electricity, heating and cooling. SEC(2010) 65. Brussels: European Commission; 2010.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“An average global rate of yield increase of 0.6% per year is projected until 2095.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Simulation results reveal that in the scenario without forest conservation up to 29 Gt of additional cumulative CO 2 emissions from land use change due to the cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops are likely to occur until 2095.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Bioenergy has significant potential to mitigate greenhouse gases if resources are sustainably developed and efficient technologies are applied.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“But if forest conservation is considered, the food price index rises most prominently in Sub-Saharan Africa (82%), Latin America (73%) and Pacific Asia (52%) until 2095.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The highest rate (0.9% per year until 2095) can be found in the forest conservation scenario, due to additional restrictions of land availability for agricultural expansion [27].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing food and bioenergy production is possible through intensification and technological change on currently used agricultural land.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“These co-emissions are negligible in the scenario with forest conservation [27].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“A continuation of current yield trends until 2050 will not suffice to meet the rising global food demand without further growth of cropland areas [42].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [42] Ray, 2013, Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050, PLoS One source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most current biofuel production systems have significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions relative to the fossil fuels displaced, if no indirect land-use change effects are considered.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
In the paper
“In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland [54].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [54] Schmitz, 2013, Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison, Agric Econ
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“An additional 31.4EJ of traditional biomass was used very inefficiently for cooking/heating in poor rural areas, mainly in Africa [59].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At present, some 55 EJ/year of bioenergy are produced globally.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“All harvested biomass used for food, fodder, fiber and forest products, when expressed in equivalent heat content, equals 219 EJ/year [18].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [18] Krausmann, 2008, Global patterns of socioeconomic biomass flows in the year 2000: A comprehensive assessment of supply, consumption and constraints, Ecol Econ source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Residues from forests, wood processing, and food crops dominate.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Large estimates of bioenergy potentials are contingent on assuming large amounts of purpose-grown bioenergy because residue potentials are limited.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Modern forms of bioenergy in use in 2011 amounted to 23.6 EJ as heat, biofuel and electricity.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Rising energy prices may cause spillovers into food markets leading to increasing food insecurity.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The forest conservation scenario increases the regional water price index most heavily in Latin America (460%), Sub Saharan Africa (390%) and Pacific Asia (330%) [27].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The expert assessment suggests potential deployment levels of bioenergy by 2050 in the range of 100-300 EJ/year.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Forestry and agricultural residues and other organic wastes (including municipal solid waste) would provide between 50 and 150 EJ/year, while the remainder would come from energy crops, surplus forest growth, and increased agricultural productivity (Fig. 3).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The energy embedded in global annual food losses is around 38% of the total final energy consumed by the whole food chain [55].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [55] Gustavsson J, Cederberg C, Sonesson U, van Otterdijk R, Meybec A. Global food losses and food wastes – extent, causes and prevention. Rome: FAO; 2011. 〈http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ags/publications/GFL_web.pdf〉.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Consequently, national and global data on biomass use and bioenergy demand are relatively difficult to measure.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“However, most biomass supply scenarios that take into account sustainability constraints, indicate an annual potential between 200 and 500 EJ/year (excluding aquatic biomass owing to its early stage of development), representing 40% to 100% of the current global energy use [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The total annual aboveground net primary production (the net amount of carbon assimilated in a time period by vegetation) on the Earth's terrestrial surface is estimated to be about 35 Gt carbon, or 1260 EJ/year assuming an average carbon content of”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [62] Haberl, 2007, Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production in Earth׳s terrestrial ecosystems, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The entire current global biomass harvest would be required to achieve a 200 EJ/year deployment level of bioenergy by 2050.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
In the paper
“The largest contributor to renewable energy with 10% points was biomass.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this case, bioenergy cropland competes directly for irrigation water with other agricultural activities.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Scenarios looking at the penetration of different low carbon energy sources indicate that future demand for bioenergy could be up to 250 EJ/year [61].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [61] Kampman B., Bergsma G., Schepers B., Croezen H., Fritsche U.E., Henneberg K., et al. van der. BUBE: Better Use of Biomass for energy. background report to the position paper of IEA RETD and IEA Bioenergy. Darmstadt: CE Delft/Öko-Institut; 2010.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The uptake of biomass depends on biomass production costs -US $4/GJ is often regarded as an upper limit if bioenergy is to be widely deployed today in all sectorslogistics, and resource and environmental issues [56].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [56] IPCC. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (SRREN). Edenhofer O, Madruga RP, Sokona Y, editors. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2011. source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“High-yielding systems with efficient conversion can deliver more than 20 times more energy compared to low-yielding inefficient systems using the same land area.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
In the paper
“In contrast, the environmentally compatible energy cropping scenario developed by the EEA for 2020 includes a much larger share of perennial grasses and short rotation trees (under coppice management) in total energy crop mix at about 40% of the total [37].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [37] EEA, EU. Bioenergy potential from a resource-efficiency perspective. European Environment Agency. EEA Report No 6/2013; 2013. 60 pp. ISBN 978-92-9213-397-9 doi:10.2800/92247.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In general, using bioenergy for heat and power is a considerably more efficient way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, compared to using bioenergy for transport fuel.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Extensively using mature trees for energy purposes may have a negative effect on the climate, due to the long time it takes for the trees to regrow and re-capture the CO 2 that is released when wood is used for energy.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For this specific scenario, biomass from dedicated bioenergy crops will contribute 25% to the total global demand for primary energy carriers.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“250 EJ/year equals 20-30% of global primary energy demand, assuming the range of energy demand scenarios in the Global Energy Assessment [13].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [13] GEA. Global Energy assessment – toward a sustainable future. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Laxenburg: The International Institute for Applied System Analysis; 2012.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition to that, solar power systems present strong seasonal and daily variability.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The use of PV generated electricity requires solving the problem of storing energy which is still uncertain.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, forest exclusion for the purpose of biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation affects the availability of cost-efficient biomass for energy production significantly.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The argument that solar photovoltaic cells (PV) are a better way to use solar energy than photosynthesis is very questionable [51,67].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The slowdown of biodiesel output in many countries was due to increased competition with relatively cheap imports from outside the EU.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This demand scenario is a result of the economic interplay between the agricultural and the energy sector where simulated bioenergy prices are rising to 7 US$ per GJ in 2095.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Biodiesel production is far less concentrated than ethanol.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Growth in biofuels markets, investment, and new plant construction has slowed in several countries in response to a number of factors: policy uncertainty, increased competition for feedstock, impacts of drought conditions on crop productivity, concerns about competition with food production for land and water resources, and concerns about the sustainability of production more broadly [70].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [70] BNEF, 2012
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Using residues and surplus forest growth, and establishing energy crop plantations on currently unused land, may prove more expensive than creating large-scale energy plantations on arable land.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result the capacity factor of solar systems is around 25% at best.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This carbon debt does not arise if bioenergy uses other forest biomass instead, for example branches left over from forest harvesting by-products or waste products from timber and paper production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
In the paper
“The estimate of potential bioenergy production in the EU first published in 2006 [36] was revised due to changes in scientific understanding, the changed EU policy framework and accounting for economic factors, reducing the estimate by approximately 40% (EEA 2013).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [36] EEA. How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment?, EEA Report. No 7/2006, European Environment Agency. ISBN 92–9167–849-X; 2006. 67 pp.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“As a consequence, the current and prospective prices of bioelectricity and sustainably produced biofuels are competitive with regards to the photovoltaic alternative in many cases [56].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [56] IPCC. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (SRREN). Edenhofer O, Madruga RP, Sokona Y, editors. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2011. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Cellulosic ethanol plants are still considerably more expensive to build than corn ethanol plants, by a factor of 2-3 in higher investment costs.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.3. Financing advanced biofuel
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Consequently, national and global data on biomass use and bioenergy demand are relatively difficult to measure and, as a result, relatively uncertain.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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In the paper
“Data related to fuel bioethanol trade are imprecise on account of the various potential end uses of ethanol (i.e., fuel, industrial and beverage use) and also because of the lack of proper codes for biofuels in global trade statistics [81].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [81] Lamers, 2011, International bioenergy, trade – a review of past developments in the liquid biofuels market, Renew Sustain Energy Rev source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, converting intact ecosystems, such as tropical rainforests or open woodlands, which store large amounts of carbon and belong to the most diverse terrestrial ecosystems, counteracts global climate and biodiversity protection goals.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Neither specific advanced biofuel quota, nor performance based support measures on their own seem to be effective to address the higher production costs of advanced biofuels in the short term.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The market of FFVs will remain a niche without substantial and stable net fuel price benefits.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Introduction of flex-fuel vehicles (FFV) and high-level ethanol blends is a suitable measure to avoid infrastructure incompatibility issues for ethanol, as has been successfully demonstrated in Brazil, the US and the EU.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For bioenergy to make a real net contribution to climate change mitigation, intact forests have to be protected.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This so-called rebound effect can reduce the possible gain from biofuels, substantially, especially if not all sectors are facing some form of climate policy, or not all countries participate in climate change policies.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
In the paper
“Lack of capable test methods during fuel introduction can lead to severe fuel quality issues [72].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [72] Licht FO. World ethanol and biofuel Report (vol. 10, no. 9). London: Agra Informa; 2013.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“In fact, the amount of feed (corn and soybean meal) replaced by the DDGS represents 38% a weight basis) of the corn used in the associated ethanol production process for a given crop year.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The mandated future levels of biodiesel use in the EU and U.S. could create substantial excess supplies of glycerin for these markets.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: There is limited demand for glycerin for food, beverage, personal care and oral products, as well as pharmaceutical and other industrial uses.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This corresponds to an increase from 2.5% of total arable land today to around 6% in 2050.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“There is a risk that in the short term a multitude of different and partially incompatible systems will arise, creating trade barriers [89].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [89] van Dam, 2010, From the global efforts on certification of bioenergy towards an integrated approach based on sustainable land use planning, Renew Sustain Energy Rev source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“If co-products are taken into account the net use of feedstocks decline [90].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“However, in aggregate, a metric tonne of DDGS can replace, on average, 1.22 metric t of feed consisting of corn and soybean meal in the United States.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most likely, forest conservation combined with large-scale cultivation of dedicated bioenergy for climate change mitigation will generate conflicts with respect to food supply and water resource management.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The EU has introduced regulations under the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) that lay down sustainability criteria that biofuels must meet before being eligible to contribute to the binding national targets that each Member State must attain by 2020 [34].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34] EC. Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC, (OJ L 140/16); 2009.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Feed market impacts of increased corn use for ethanol are smaller than that indicated by the total amount of corn used for ethanol production because of DDGS.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: DDGS has been one of the most economically competitive sources of energy and proteins available on the world feed market over the past several years.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One of the reasons that one tonne of DDGS can replace more than one tonne of conventional feed is that its energy and protein contents are concentrated.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Only the starch portion of the corn kernel is converted to ethanol, while the protein, fat, fiber and other components are concentrated and passed through the process to the DDGS.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“DDGS and other ethanol feed products significantly reduce the need for corn and soybean meal in animal feed rations.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Based on the land-use efficiencies land use for biofuel production would need to increase from 40 million ha (21 million ha net land requirement by adding co-products substituted for grains and oilseeds) to around 100 million ha in 2050.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Brazil is the only emerging country that has initiated the agroecological sugarcane zoning program (ZAE Cana) to direct available land to the production of biofuel feedstock in order to stop deforestation and indirect land use change [86].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [86] IEA, 2010
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most existing biofuel regulations significantly undervalue the contribution of DDGS when assessing the net GHG impacts of corn ethanol assuming that one metric tonne of DDGS replaces only one metric tonne of corn, with no substitution of soybean meal.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“For cattles, DDGS replaces corn or both corn and soybean meal up to around 40%.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The digestive systems of ruminant animals (cattle, sheep, and goats) are well suited for using DDGS.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But in the long run (until 2095) the use of biomass in the energy system is competitive, mainly due to the option of generating negative emissions in the energy system by using CCS.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most current biofuel production systems have significant reductions in GHG emissions relative to the fossil fuels displaced, if no indirect LUC effects are considered.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: No indirect LUC effects are considered.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The importance of DDGS is being undervalued by the regulatory agencies requiring a GHG assessment of ethanol.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To achieve the projected target of 50% reduction in energy-related CO 2 emissions by 2050 from 2005 levels sustainably produced biofuels production must provide 27% of total transport fuel.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is causing conflicts between land use for food and those for producing bioenergy crops.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indirect effects of bioenergy products, such as biofuels are not fixed characteristic of the bioenergy product, but the result of the interaction with dynamic global economic and physical systems.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In case of indirect land use this period for compensation can be shortened by stimulating global agricultural intensification, especially an increase of fertiliser use efficiency.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Intensification of agriculture is a way to minimize indirect land use change.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, indirect land use change can negate any greenhouse gas savings from biofuel production based on energy crops.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Reducing GHG-emissions by substituting fossil fuel by a bioenergy product can result in less negative impact on biodiversity from climate change on the long term.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There is no fixed indirect emission factor for a specific bioenergy product.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These factors create uncertainty about what future transport systems look like.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, it will indeed take a long period (more than 100 years) to compensate for the short term loss of nature due to direct land conversion for the energy crop.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Bioenergy-related land use decisions may affect local, regional and global ecological and environmental systems.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The increasing demand for suitable land in which this biomass needs to grow competes with the need for food production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Besides uncertainties of cost-effective use of bioenergy application, large-scale energy crop production may create conflicts with other sustainability aspects, like food and water security or climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing biomass energy production beyond a certain level would have significant effects on land use and conventional agricultural markets.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, if higher yields are the result of increasing fertiliser use only, indirect emissions might occur.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 136
- Probably not a substantial claim. 153
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“International trade in biomass and biofuels has become much more important in the last decade, with roughly 5% of biofuels (fuel ethanol and biodiesel only) traded internationally and one-third of all pellet production for energy use in 2010.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In global production and transport of wood pellets exceeded 22 million t, and in 2012 about 8.2 million t of pellets were traded internationally, 40% of pellets were shipped from North America to Europe [59,82].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
- Not checked yetcites [82] Lamers P, Marchal D, Schouwenberg PP, Cocchi M, Junginger M. Global Wood ChipTrade for Energy. IEA Bioenergy, Task 40; 2012.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“About two-thirds of pellet production is used in small heat plants and one-third in larger power plants [83].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [83] Goh CS, Junginger M, Bradley D, Hektor B, Wild M, Deutmeyer M, Schouwenberg PP, Hess JR, Jay Shankar Tumuluru, JS, Bradburn K, editors. Low Cost, Long Distance Biomass Supply Chains. IEA Bioenergy, Task 40; 2013.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ethanol production in the United States, for example, consumes about 15% of annual global corn production, raising concerns about its impact on food supply.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Currently, less than 3% of global agricultural land is used for cultivating biofuel crops and LUC associated with bioenergy represents only around 1% of the total emissions caused by land-use change globally most of which are produced by changes in land use for food and fodder production, or other reasons [87].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [87] Berndes G, Bird N, Cowie A. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation; 2010. 〈www.ieabioenergy.com〉.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The fuel ethanol sector, mainly in the US, accounts for 15% (net 10%) of global corn consumption and 20% of global sugar cane production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In case of biodiesel production 50-60% of rapeseed (rapeseed cake/meal) and 80% of soybean (soybean meal) is returned to the feed sector and the net land requirement decrease to around 6 million ha.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
- Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
In the paper
“Currently available values indicate a high GHG mitigation potential of 60-120%,foot_3 similar to the 70-110% mitigation level of sugarcane ethanol and better than most current biofuels [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the US some 8% of cropland is dedicated to biofuel production, however, 20-35% of corn and soybean area is used for biofuel production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The proportion of global cropland used for biofuels is currently some 2.5% with wide differences among countries and regions.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In Brazil biofuel is just requiring 3% (ethanol 1.5%) of all cropland (included pastureland) available in the country even if more than 50% of sugar cane area (20% of global area) is used for ethanol production [authors's calculation].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [authors's calculation]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2010 about 20 million gross hectares of grains, sugar cane and cassava for fuel ethanol production and 20 million gross hectares of oilseed feedstock was needed for biodiesel production (Table 2).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For regions with relatively more conversion of forests, this value might be higher.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Typical emission values over the whole period are on average 300 to 1600 t CO 2 equivalent/ha for the conversion of forest to agricultural land, and 75 to 364 t CO 2 equivalent/ha for grassland or savannah [4,29,30].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [4] Searchinger, 2008, Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change, Science source
- Not checked yetcites [29] Fargione, 2008, Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt, Science source
- Not checked yetcites [30] Van Minnen, JG. The terrestrial carbon cycle on the regional and global scale. Modeling uncertainties and policy relevance [Ph.D. thesis]. Wageningen University; 2008.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In the last 35 years global energy supplies have nearly doubled but the relative contribution from renewables has hardly changed at around 13% [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Fritsche [31] presented an average value of 5 t CO 2 equivalent/ha per year.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [31] Fritsche U. Bioenergy GHG emission balances including direct and indirect land use change effects. In: presented at the IEA workshop “Sustainability certification of biofuels and bioenergy”, 29 January 2009, Brussels.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited, because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Land is multi-functional and is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Large-scale cultivation of dedicated biomass is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, global food prices and water scarcity.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Abstract
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“One of the few technologies that may result in negative emissions is the combination of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) [7].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [7] Haszeldine, 2009, Carbon capture and storage: how green can black be, Science source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is concluded that the rise in the use of biofuels is inevitable and that international cooperation, regulations, certification mechanisms and sustainability criteria must be established regarding the use of land and the mitigation of environmental impacts caused by biofuel production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Mandatory bioenergy production can lead to decreasing prices of crude oil, and thereby lead to an increase in crude oil and total energy consumption.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [33] Barker, 2009, The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy, Energy Effic source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Also important are the results reached in the Global Energy Assessment [13], which concludes on a potential equal to 160-270 EJ/year in 2050.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [13] GEA. Global Energy assessment – toward a sustainable future. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Laxenburg: The International Institute for Applied System Analysis; 2012.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Bioenergy currently provides roughly 10% of global supplies and accounts for roughly 80% of the energy derived from renewable sources [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The world's population continues to grow and, over the next 40 years, agricultural production will have to increase by some 60% [1].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] FAO, 2011
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“This is foreseen by European Environment Agency (EEA) to rise to around 10% by 2020, or approximately half of the projected renewable energy output, according to EU Member States' National Renewable Energy Plans [35].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [35] EC. Renewable energy, national renewable energy action plans. European Commission. 〈http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/action_plan_en.htm〉; 2010.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100 [20].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [20] Edenhofer, 2010, The economics of low stabilization: model comparison of mitigation strategies and costs, Energy J
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Forests are a major storage of carbon [22], so there is an adverse impact when forest carbon is released for the purpose of bioenergy production [23].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The differences in bioenergy resource assessment estimates are due to the broad variety of approaches, methodologies, assumptions and datasets.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The higher value resulting from an optimistic approach assumes a highly developed agricultural system, the lower is the result of a pessimistic approach with high population growth and extreme measures to avoid biodiversity loss [14].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [14] Berndes, 2003, The contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply: a review of 17 studies Biomass and Bioenergy
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This effect is rather uncertain, but could reach as much as 50% of potential gains [33].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [33] Barker, 2009, The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy, Energy Effic source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since biomass can substitute for petrochemicals too, higher oil prices will trigger new non-energy demands on bioresources as well.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“But deforestation not only removes a carbon sink, it is also regarded as the greatest threat to terrestrial biodiversity as forests are the most biologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems [24].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [24] Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends findings of the condition and trends working group. In: Hassan R, Scholes R, Ash N, editors. Washington, DC: Island Press; 2005. pp. 77–122.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Higher food, feed and fiber demand will place an increasing pressure on land and water resources, whose availability and productivity in agriculture may themselves be under threat from climate change.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“In the scenario without forest conservation, bioenergy demand increases up to about 300 EJ in 2095 with a demand of about 100 EJ in 2055.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Recently, the IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy [12] reported a huge range of 50-500 EJ/year.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [12] IPPC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Recent research has found that these bioenergy sources have their drawbacks [3,4] and turned attention to the use of ligno-cellulosic feedstocks, such as perennial grasses and short rotation woody crops for bioenergy production [5,6].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [3] Crutzen, 2008, N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels, Atmos Chem Phys
- Not checked yetcites [4] Searchinger, 2008, Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change, Science source
- Not checked yetcites [5] Schmer, 2008, Net energy of cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
- Not checked yetcites [6] Melillo, 2009, Indirect emissions from biofuels: how important, Science source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Based on this diverse range of feedstocks, the technical potential for biomass is estimated in the literature to be possibly as high as 1500 EJ/year by 2050 [8].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [8] Smeets, 2007, A bottom-up assessment and review of global bioenergy potentials to 2050, Energy Combust Sci source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The EEA has revised its estimate of potential bioenergy production in the EU first published in 2006 [36], reducing the estimate by approximately 40% [37].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 1. Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [36] EEA. How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment?, EEA Report. No 7/2006, European Environment Agency. ISBN 92–9167–849-X; 2006. 67 pp.
- Not checked yetcites [37] EEA, EU. Bioenergy potential from a resource-efficiency perspective. European Environment Agency. EEA Report No 6/2013; 2013. 60 pp. ISBN 978-92-9213-397-9 doi:10.2800/92247.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Food losses in industrialized countries are as high as in developing countries, but in developing countries more than 40% of the food losses occur at post harvest and processing levels, while in industrialized countries, more than 40% of the food losses occur at retail and consumer levels [45].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] FAOSTAT. FAOSTAT. Rome: FAO; 2011. 〈http://www.faostat.fao.org/default.aspx〉.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The precise quantification of greenhouse gas savings for specific systems is often hampered by lack of reliable data.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The impacts and performance of biomass production and use are region-and site-specific.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Bioenergy may compete with the food sector, either directly, if food commodities are used as the energy source, or indirectly, if bioenergy crops are cultivated on soil that would otherwise be used for food production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Results are potentially biased because studies might differ in their focus on potential or realized effects, their use of different baselines for comparisons and other background conditions.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 2. Material and methods
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The direct land-use change effects of bioenergy production can be controlled through certification systems, wherever biomass is grown.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Competition for land may be limited, as production of feedstocks for advanced biofuels are expected to be grown mainly outside cultivated land, and that some 100 million ha would be sufficient to achieve the target biofuel share in world transport fuels in 2050 [49].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [49] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA; 2010.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indirect land-use changes, however, are more difficult to identify.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“As a relevant outcome, the world food security situation is steadily improving, as indicated by a consistent rise of average food consumption per capita and the progressive reduction of undernourishment in the developing world [53].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [53] FAO, WFP, IFAD. The state of food insecurity in the World 2012. Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization; 2012.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“If current trends of agricultural intensification and livestock feeding efficiency growth are projected into the future, meeting global food demand might be achieved without reducing the amount of annual plant production remaining in ecosystems, but only in the absence of large-scale additional bioenergy production [40].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [40] Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Globally, an average of 35% of potential crop yield is lost to preharvest pests [44].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [44] Oerke, 2006, Crop losses to pests, J Agric Sci source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“However, much of this grass-and woodland provide food and wood for cooking and heating to local communities, or is in use as (extensive) grazing ground for livestock and only some 700 to 800 million ha of this land is suitable for economically viable lignocellulosic feedstock production [50].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [50] Fischer G, Hizsnyik E, Prieler S, Shah M, van Velthuizen H.. Biofuels and Food Security. The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) and International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, Austria; 2009. 228 pp.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10-25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [54] Schmitz, 2013, Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison, Agric Econ
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nonetheless practically all bioenergy systems deliver large greenhouse gas savings if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissionsincluding those arising due to land use changeare kept low.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The major challenge is that the increase in the cultivation of energy crops could conflict with the availability of land for food crops, therefore the introduction of next generation biofuels in the EU would be essential for guaranteeing energy and food security, and sufficient reduction in carbon emissions to meet the 20% target.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 2. Material and methods
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In the scenario without forest conservation, cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops increases total cropland to 1830 million ha, but forest exclusion limits total cropland to 1520 million ha in 2095.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, different methods of quantification lead to variation in estimates of greenhouse gas savings.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Due to high dependence of the global food sector on fossil fuels the volatility of energy markets can have a potentially significant impact on food prices leading to increasing food insecurity.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3. Results and discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“According to FAO [52], more than 80% of the food/feed global future demand will be fulfilled by increment in productivity.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.1. Risks to food security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [52] FAO. Global Agriculture Towards 2050. In: Paper Prepared by the High-Level Expert Forum for the Conference How to Feed the World by 2050. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization; 2009.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The historic time for each energy source to grow from 1 to 10 EJ in primary energy production was 12 years for nuclear, 33 years for crude oil, 39 years for natural gas, 52 years for coal, and 59 years for hydro-power [59].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Due to high dependence of the global food sector on fossil fuels the volatility of energy markets can have a potentially significant impact on food prices, and this would have serious implications for food security and sustainable development [56].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [56] IPCC. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (SRREN). Edenhofer O, Madruga RP, Sokona Y, editors. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2011. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Of this total 80% was provided by fossil fuels, about 10% by bioenergy mainly from wood combustion, 5.5% from nuclear, 2.2% from hydro, and 0.4% from other renewable energy sources.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The global share of electricity from renewables in 2010 was 20%, with over 70% of electricity provided by hydropower and the rest was produced using wind, solar, biomass and waste-topower, geothermal, marine and small hydro technologies.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Future renewable energy shares are in the range of 15-20% in conservative scenarios, 30-45% in moderate scenarios, and 50-95%”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [60] IEA. The Renewable Energy 2013. Medium-term market Report. A growing role for renewables in the energy mix. International Energy Agency, Paris; 2013.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, national data collection is often carried out by multiple institutions that are not always wellcoordinated, or that report contradictory findings.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“All energy scenarios portray a mixture of energy supply technologies combined with energy demand growth and energy efficiency improvements [60].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [60] IEA. The Renewable Energy 2013. Medium-term market Report. A growing role for renewables in the energy mix. International Energy Agency, Paris; 2013.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Large energy crop potentials can only be justified by assuming the use of a large fraction of the Earth's surface or yields far exceeding current net primary production, or both [10].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [10] Haberl, 2013, Bioenergy: how much can we expect for 2050, Environ Res Lett source
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Traditional biomass is already a major source of energy in developing countries, primarily for heating and cooking in rural areas.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Heating accounted for the vast majority of biomass use, including heat produced from modern biomass and the traditional, contributing an estimated 6-7% of total global primary energy demand.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Projected world primary energy demand by 2050 is expected to be in the range of 600 to 1000 EJ/year compared to about 500 EJ in 2008.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, the global share of biomass has remained stable over the past two decades, but in recent years a sharp decline in share can be observed in China due to a rapid growth of total energy consumption and a steady increase of all types of biomass (for electricity, heat and biofuels) in the EU.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited because all land is multifunctional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber and fiber productions, as well as for nature conservation and climate protection.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Based on this diverse range of feedstocks, the technical potential for biomass is estimated to be possibly as high as 1500 EJ/year by 2050 [8].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [8] Smeets, 2007, A bottom-up assessment and review of global bioenergy potentials to 2050, Energy Combust Sci source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Rural renewable energy markets show significant diversity, with the levels of electrification, access to clean cookstoves, financing models, actors, and support policies varying greatly among countries and regions.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Useful heat energy from modern renewable sources accounted for an estimated 4.1% of total final energy use; hydropower made up about 3.7%; and an estimated 1.9% was provided by power from wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, and by biofuels.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, there are large uncertainties in this potential, such as market and policy conditions, and there is a strong dependence on the rate of improvements in the agricultural sector for food, fodder and fiber productions and forest products.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.1. The increasing competition for biomass: bioenergy potential
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Attaining high shares of electricity is considered easiest, high shares of heating/cooling is the most difficult, and high shares of transport energy the most uncertain.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The total volume of modern biomass consumption contributed an estimated 3-4% of global primary energy.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Biomass markets often rely on informal structures, which make it difficult to formally track data and trends.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The future trends in developing countries continue with a shift away from traditional biomass cookstoves to more modern forms of stoves and fuels, including efficient biomass cookstoves and stoves that burn biogas or biofuels.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Government-driven electrification and grid extension programmes are still being adopted across the developing world.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Furthermore, any increase in the use of fossil fuels to boost production will lead to greater GHG emissions, which the global community has pledged to reduce [57].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [57] FAO, Energy-smart food for people and climate. Issue paper. Rome: FAO; 2011 〈http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2454e/i2454e00.pdf〉
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The energy efficiency of photosynthesis is usually o1% under field conditions [63] far below the efficiency of commercial solar photovoltaic cells of 12-20% [64].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [63] Larcher, 2003
- Not checked yetcites [64] IPCC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Energy consumption is still increasing rapidly, with an approximate 540 EJ consumed at the primary energy level in 2010 [58].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The global harvest of major crops (cereals, oil crops, sugar crops, roots, tubers and pulses) corresponds to about 60 EJ/year and the global industrial roundwood production corresponds to 15 to 20 EJ/year [45].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] FAOSTAT. FAOSTAT. Rome: FAO; 2011. 〈http://www.faostat.fao.org/default.aspx〉.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For food, and many fiber and wood products, people have no alternative to using plants, but for energy the detour via photosynthesis may in many cases result in exceedingly high land demand.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Biomass accounts for about 10% of global primary energy supply (54 EJ in 2010) and is the world's fourth largest source of energy (following oil, coal, and natural gas).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“On a global basis, it is estimated that renewable energy accounted for 13% of the total 492 EJ (Exajoules)foot_1 or 12,300 million t oil equivalent (Mt) of primary energy supply in 2008 [58].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Technological progress also advanced the use of renewables in the rural heating and cooking sectors.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“which can be compared to the current world primary energy supply of about 500 EJ/year [2].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Shortrotation energy crops, grown on agricultural land specifically for energy purposes, currently provide about 3-4% of the total biomass resource consumed annually [58].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The world gets about 19% of its energy from renewables, including about 9.3% from traditional biomass and about 9.7% from modern renewables (Fig. 2).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2. Risks to energy security
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [58] IEA, 2012 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2012 the United States was the world's largest producer of biofuels,”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
In the paper
“In the case of residues, opportunity costs can occur, and the scattered distribution of residues may render it difficult in some places to recover them [49].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [49] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA; 2010.
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“China also made progress on advanced biofuels in 2012, with around 3 million liters of ethanol produced from corn cobs and used in blends with gasoline.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Limited biomass resources will be allocated to the sector (materials, chemicals, and energy) that is most able to afford them.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The bioenergy potential in 2030 represents around 15-16% of the projected primary energy requirements of the EU-25 in 2030 compared to a 4% share of bioenergy in 2003 and to a 8.5% share in 2010.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Using organic waste and agricultural or forestry residues as feedstock is more resource efficient than many other types of feedstock, as it does not add pressure on land and water resources and offers very high greenhouse gas savings.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In bioenergy systems, the solar radiation is naturally stored as chemical energy in the biomass and further in the biofuel, allowing full dispatchability.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In 2012, it produced 51 billion liters of ethanol and accounted for 60% of global production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Different energy cropping systems can vary hugely in their productivity, as well as in environmental impacts.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Liquid biofuels continue to make a small but growing contribution to transport fuel demand worldwide, currently providing about 3% (2.6 EJ) of global road transport fuels.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the EU final energy consumption is about 50 EJ/year with a 8.5% share of bioenergy.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“During 2012 in Germany the share of biomethane in natural gas increased from 6% to more than 15%, and the number of fueling stations selling 100% biomethane more than tripled.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whatever is actually realised will depend on the cost competitiveness of bioenergy and on future policy frameworks, such as greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It will also depend on factors such as cost of alternative fuel and energy sources, government policies including excise rates, and the emission intensity of each sector.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2012 global fuel ethanol production reached 86 billion liters, global biodiesel production amounted to 18 million t, or 20 billion liters (Figs. 4 and 5).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“They also are seeing small but increasing use in the aviation and marine sectors [69].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [69] 2011
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Availability of land for non-food crops will be determined by increased yield potential, reducing losses and wastes along the food chain and lower inputs.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Further, 10% of the natural gas vehicles in Germany used compressed biomethane fuel instead of compressed natural gas methane [75].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [75] Müller C. Biomethane in the Fast Lane, German Energy Agency (DENA), 27 March 2013, At: 〈www.dena.de/presse-medien/pressemitteilungen/biomethan-auf-der-ueberholspur.html〉
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, these volumes will remain limited relative to total energy and transport sector fuel demand.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The study [37] concludes that significant amounts of biomass can technically be available to support ambitious renewable energy targets, even if strict environmental constraints are applied.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [37] EEA, EU. Bioenergy potential from a resource-efficiency perspective. European Environment Agency. EEA Report No 6/2013; 2013. 60 pp. ISBN 978-92-9213-397-9 doi:10.2800/92247.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Aviation is responsible for 2% man made CO 2 emissions and produces 8% of global GDP.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This will depend on the price of existing fossil fuel products and the relative cost of converting biomass into substitute final fuels such as bio-derived electricity, ethanol blends, biodiesel and bioderived jet fuel.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, generating electricity by burning pure biomass is only approximately 30-35% efficient, while burning the same material to produce heat is usually more than 85% efficient.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“China, at 2.1 billion liters, remained Asia's largest ethanol producer [73].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [73] Lane J. IEA says cellulosic biofuels capacity has tripled since 2010, International Energy Agency, New Task 39 global report, Biofuels Digest, 5 April 2013, 〈www.biofuelsdigest.com〉.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Farm and community-scale biogas plants continue to be manufactured and installed for treating wet waste biomass products, especially in Europe where almost 12,000 plants operated in 2012.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Reaching such a level of supply would require roughly a doubling of global biomass harvest in less than four decades and would result in massive increases in humanity's pressures on land ecosystems [66].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [66] Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In Brazil fuel ethanol production reached 21 billion liters and in the EU 4.3 billion liters in 2012.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Global biodiesel production amounted to 18 million t (20.5 billion liters) in 2012.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Large-scale promotion of bioenergy could result in economic incentives to divert land from food production to bioenergy which puts the world's poor at risk, driving up hunger and inequality.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Currently, around 80% of the global production of liquid biofuels is in the form of ethanol.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The transport sector is responsible for about 20% of world primary energy demand.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The two world's top ethanol producers, the U.S. and Brazil, accounted for around 85% of total production.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, production of both ethanol and biodiesel is increasing rapidly in Asia.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The European Union remained the center of global biodiesel production, with 7.9 million t liters and representing 43% of total output in 2012.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Given the biospheric constraints outlined above, it seems impossible that bioenergy could physically provide more than 250 EJ/year in 2050 [9,65,66], substantially below many published bioenergy projections.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] Haberl, 2010, The global technical potential of bio-energy in 2050 considering sustainability constraints, Curr Opin Environ Sustain source
- Not checked yetcites [65] Smith, 2012, Global bioenergy capacity as constrained by observed biospheric productivity rates, BioScience source
- Not checked yetcites [66] Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In addition, 2250 sewage sludge facilities are operating in Europe; approximately 2% of these plants upgrade the biogas to higher-quality biomethane for use as a vehicle fuel or for injection into the gas grid [74].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [74] Downing L. Rising trend: poop powers ski resorts and water treatment center in Europe, RenewableEnergyWorld.com, 20 February 2013.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“a total of 1553 Mha of land was in use for agricultural production in 2011, it was 1371 Mha in 1961, an increase of 182 Mha in 50 years over pastures, deforested (in some cases) and degraded lands [68].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [68] FAOSTAT (2012) World Agricultural Harvested Are. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization; 2011.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The countries with the largest estimated agricultural bioenergy potential in 2020 are France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland and Romania.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2012, U.S. production of advanced biofuels from lignocellulosic feedstocks reached 2 million liters, however, these volume remains only a small proportion of the original U.S. mandate under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) that was subsequently waived.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The total annual capacity of the approximately 650 ethanol plants operating globally is around 100 billion litres, but many facilities are operating below nameplate capacity and others have closed due to fluctuating demand and concerns about the environmental sustainability of the product.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The IEA (2012) found that projections for biofuels in aviation ranged from a few percent to 30% by 2050 [76].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [76] IEA, 2012
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Biodiesel accounted for the vast majority of biofuels consumed in the EU, but growth in the region continued to slow.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Without forest conservation, bioenergy demand increases up to about 300 EJ in 2095 with a demand of about 100 EJ in 2055.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > Studies referring to 2050 Low range High range
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This will ensure vehicle and infrastructure compatibility among different regions and promote consumer acceptance for new fuels.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Given the technical approval (ASTM D7566) of the 50% biofuel/kerosene mix in 2012 there has certainly been a noticeable increase in interest, and a forecast in the UK Sustainable Aviation Roadmap that by 2050 sustainable biofuels will contribute an 18% reduction in aviation emissions [77].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [77] Green Aviation. Aviation progressing rapidly on biofuels; 2013. 〈http://greenaviation.org/〉
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The EU is not bound by the Chicago Convention because it is not a party to that convention.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Pelletisation, pyrolysis or torrefaction will become increasingly important since they increase the energy density and thus tradability of lignocellulosic feedstocks (e.g.residues).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Over 40 years the focus on innovation has led to 70% reduced aviation fuel consumption and related CO 2 emissions.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Only advanced biofuels, particularly from agricultural wastes and from crops on marginal lands like switch grass, would ensure future sustainability.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A key requirement for all biofuels to get access to the market will be compliance with international fuel quality standards.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Backward compatibility of fuel changes is a very difficult issue because it is extremely difficult to cover all the vehicle generations and models combined with reliability risks for the customers and a risk for vehicle manufacturers in meeting legal commitments (CO 2 emissions) and furthermore it is costly.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The passenger vehicle fleet will double to 1.7 billion in 2035 [70].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [70] BNEF, 2012
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Spending on new renewable energy capacity will total $7 trillion over the next 20 years.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.3. Financing advanced biofuel
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2011 American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), an international standards organization gave the airlines the go-ahead to incorporate biofuels into as much as 50% of the total fuel they use on passenger flights.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The solar and wind sectors will continue to expand with a combined share of 70% in total money spent on renewable energy projects but biofuel is projected to reach a share of just 8% or US $510 billion in total spending.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.3. Financing advanced biofuel
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) transposition in several member states only includes incentives for ground transport.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“British Airways (BA) and Solena produce a waste-to-biofuels plant in East London, or nearby, with several potential sites identified in the area.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Outside of Europe, a diverse group of at least 20 other countries target energy shares in the 2020-2030 time frame that range from 10% to 50%, including Algeria, China, Indonesia, Jamaica, Jordan, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Samoa, Senegal, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, and Vietnam [59].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Global investment in renewable energy decreased in 2012, but investment expanded significantly in developing countries.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.3. Financing advanced biofuel
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Direct GHG emissions have been subject of intense discussion, resulting in the restriction that, to be included in the 10% target, GHG emission savings from the use of biofuels and bioliquids should be at least 35%, compared to fossil fuels.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“About 30 countries were getting 20% or more of their total energy from renewables, and some as high as 50%.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Only direct LUC emission is accounted and indirect LUC emission is not calculated.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2011 Boeing, an active Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (RSB) member, announced the launch of a partnership with the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels called the Sustainable Biomass Consortium (SBC), a research initiative focused on increasing collaboration between voluntary standards and regulatory requirements for biomass used to create jet fuel and bioenergy for other sectors.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Lesson learned from the experience in Germany is that wide spread blending of usual market fuel with bio-components ideally requires 100% backwards compatibility with vehicle stock.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Some countries have long-term policy targets that will put them squarely in the “high renewables” domain by 2030 or 2050, such as Denmark (100%) and Germany (60%).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At least 5 years lead-time should enable car industry to adapt to new fuel standards.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Biomass and biofuel markets have globalized over the last decades but are still immature and face tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers leading to radical and mostly undesired shifts in international trade flows.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The annual value of renewable energy capacity installed will double in real terms to $395 billion in 2020, rising to $460 billion in 2030, compared with $195 billion in 2010according to analysis company Bloomberg New Energy Finance [80].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.3. Financing advanced biofuel
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [80] BNEF. Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook. Bloomberg New Energy Finance; 2011. 〈https://www.bnef.com/PressReleases/view/173〉
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Exclusion of aviation prevents a level playing field with road transport.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“They certified advanced biofuels as meeting the ASTM International specification for bio-derived aviation fuels, “Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids” (HEFA) fuel [77].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [77] Green Aviation. Aviation progressing rapidly on biofuels; 2013. 〈http://greenaviation.org/〉
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Some 120 countries around the world have some type of policy and/or target to promote renewable energy, more than twothirds of which are developing countries or emerging economies.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“They seem to be viable for light vehicles and short distances [72].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [72] Licht FO. World ethanol and biofuel Report (vol. 10, no. 9). London: Agra Informa; 2013.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At least 138 countries had renewable energy targets by the end of 2012.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“In Europe, 1116 new cities and towns joined the Covenant of Mayors in 2012, committing to a 20% CO 2 reduction target and to plans for climate mitigation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy [59].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mandatory bioenergy production can lead to decreasing prices of crude oil, and thereby eventually lead to an increase in crude oil and total energy consumption.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Renewable energy support policies were identified in 127 countries, more than two-thirds of which are developing countries or emerging economies.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The investment will be $350 million and initially produce enough fuel per day to fill 80 tanker trucks.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Investment in renewable power and fuels (including small hydro-electric projects) was $244 billion in 2012, down 12% from the previous year's record figure of $279 billion.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.3. Financing advanced biofuel
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Despite increasing pressure in major markets such as Europe and the United States, due to growing debate over the overall sustainability of first generation biofuels, regulatory policies promoting the use of biofuels existed in at least 49 countries in 2012 [59].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This represents around 2% of BA's fuel needs in the London area and this initial batch will be used exclusively at the nearby London City airport.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Lufthansa has a partnership with Finnish company Neste and is using a 50% biofuel/kerosene mix on all flights of one dedicated A320 aircraft between Frankfurt and Hamburg for several months, with no adverse events and no apparent differences in engine performance or exhaust deposits [77].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [77] Green Aviation. Aviation progressing rapidly on biofuels; 2013. 〈http://greenaviation.org/〉
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The roadmap of the European Commission in 2011 gave a positive signal with clear milestones which targets an annual production of 2 million t of sustainably produced biofuel (4% of EU fuel consumption) for aviation by 2020.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contrast to Brazil (and Sweden) there are no significant incentives for customers to buy FFVs because the production costs of ethanol exceed gasoline costs.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Court concluded by stating that the uniform application of the scheme to all flights which depart from or arrive at a European airport is consistent with the provisions of the Open Skies Agreement designed to prohibit discriminatory treatment between American and European operators.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Scale and efficiency improvements will reduce biofuel production costs over time.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most policies to support renewable energy target the power sector, with feed-in tariffs (FITs) and renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) used most frequently.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Biofuel blend mandates were identified at the national level in 27 countries and in 27 states/ provinces.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Vehicle compatibility less than 100% requires compatibility lists, which is a politically very complicated process.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.4. Renewable energy and transport policies
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Renewable energy is spreading to new regions and countries and becoming increasingly affordable in developing and developed countries alike [79].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.3. Financing advanced biofuel
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [79] BNEF Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2013, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2013. Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF; 2013. 〈http://www.fs-unep-centre.org〉
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The development of international markets for bioenergy has become an essential driver to develop available biomass resources and market potential, which are currently underutilized in many world regions.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Bio-methane, fuelwood, charcoal, briquettes, and agricultural residues are mainly traded locally; whereas wood pellets, wood chips, biodiesel, and ethanol are traded both nationally and internationally [82].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [82] Lamers P, Marchal D, Schouwenberg PP, Cocchi M, Junginger M. Global Wood ChipTrade for Energy. IEA Bioenergy, Task 40; 2012.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the short term, trade will include conventional biofuels and feedstocks, but after 2020, lignocellulosic feedstock trade is likely to grow rapidly and supply large advanced biofuel plants in coastal locations.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.5. Global trade in biomass and bioenergy
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the end of 2011 the European Court of Justice confirmed the validity of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) directive that includes aviation activities in the emissions trading scheme since.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, there is a loophole as only direct LUC emission is accounted and indirect LUC emission is not calculated.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Vehicle efficiency improvements account for one-third of emissions reduction in the transport sector; the use of biofuels is the second-largest contributor, together with electrification of the fleet accounting for 20% (2.1 Gt CO 2 -equivalent) of emissions saving [86].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [86] IEA, 2010
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, with respect to the importance of CCS for the contribution of bioenergy to climate change mitigation one needs to consider that the availability of this technology is still uncertain and not yet proven on a large scale.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Changes in land use, principally those associated with deforestation and expansion of agricultural production for food, contribute about 15% of global emissions of GHG.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Development of standards or criteria will push bioenergy production to lower emissions and higher efficiency than today's systems.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The transport sector is currently responsible for 23% of energyrelated CO 2 emissions.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In 2010, the EPA designated Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an advanced biofuel due to its 61% reduction of total life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, including direct indirect land use change emissions [85].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [85] UNICA. EPA reaffirms sugarcane biofuel is advanced renewable fuel with 61% less emissions than gasoline; 2010. 〈http://english.unica.com.br/releases/show.asp?rls〉
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This substitution reduces the indirect land use and therefore the impact of indirect land use change and intensification is substantially.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“DDGS can be used to replace some soybean meal as well as corn in livestock and poultry rations.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Digestive systems of hogs and poultry are less suited for feeding high levels of DDGS, although it can be used at up to 15% to 20% of their rations.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But this set of criteria does not cover all issues and there is no guarantee for sustainability.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“About 90% of DDGS is used in the ruminant sector and only 10% in the hog and poultry sectors [90].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Restrictions on land availability, by protecting untouched tropical forests and other high-carbon ecosystems, are likely to reduce bioenergy potentials significantly in the medium run, but less so in the long run.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Bioenergy from dedicated ligno-cellulosic energy crops is likely to be a cost-efficient contribution to the future energy mix.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Advanced biofuels and cellulosic biofuels must demonstrate that they meet minimum GHG reduction standards of 50% and 60% respectively, based on a life-cycle assessment (including indirect land-use change) in comparison with the petroleum fuels they displace.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nonetheless practically all bioenergy systems deliver large GHG savings if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissionsincluding those arising due to land use changeare kept low.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Bioenergy systems replace fossil-based energy and bioenergy production emissions, including those arising due to land use change, are kept low.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An increase in the supply of this animal feed from coproducts could lead to a decrease in prices for animal feed, and subsequently to an increase in consumption of meat and dairy products.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In order to count towards the RED target, biofuels must provide 35% GHG emissions saving compared to fossil fuels.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for the Renewable Fuel Standard program [84].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.2. Sustainability criteria for bioenergy
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [84] EPA. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Regulations & Standards United States Environmental Protection Agency; 2013. 〈http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/documents/420f13005.pdf〉.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, these values do not include the impact of land use change (LUC) 3 that can have considerable negative impact on the lifecycle emissions of advanced biofuels and also negatively impact biodiversity.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3. Risks to the environment 3.3.1. Land use change and GHG emission
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, indirect GHG emissions bear a scientific uncertainty and vary in time.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The most efficient energy use of biomass is for heating and electricity as well as advanced biofuels, also called second generation biofuels.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The use of bioenergy resources and biomass trade would generally contribute to the diversification of the energy mix.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This might lead to extra emissions equal to 10-40% of the fossil fuel emissions.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the other hand there are no serious limits because of the huge resources available from agricultural and forest wastes, and from new approaches to growing biomass crops on surplus land.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Bioenergy can have positive and negative ecological and environmental impacts, and the overall net impact can be either positive or negative.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indirect effects on biodiversity are strongly related to land conversion.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the United States should remain the largest producer, technical and economic challenges related to blending more than 10% ethanol in the gasoline pool raise uncertainty over the outlook.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such land use change harms biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In Brazil, more optimistic sugar cane harvest conditions and new government support measures should drive continued growth, though the ethanol sector there still faces financial difficulties.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The global potential for biomass energy production is large in absolute terms, but it is far not enough to replace the current energy usage.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This expansion would include some cropland, as well as pastures and currently unused land, the latter in particular for production of lignocellulosic biomass [49].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [49] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA; 2010.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First generation transport biofuels, for example, biodiesel based on oilseed rape or ethanol from wheat/maize, are far less efficient use of resources.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The international bioenergy market is expected to have a wide range of suppliers from several world regions and the importation of bioenergy is therefore not affected by the same geopolitical concerns as are oil and natural gas.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The current energy crop mix in the EU is not favorable to the environment, a broader mix of crops could reduce environmental impacts.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These problems will be amplified by the change in land productivity caused by climate change (erosion, water stress, increasing soil salinity, and others more).”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless, long-term transport shares are the most challenging to project, and the most uncertain, because the range of possible vehicle technologies and fuel types in the future is very broad, future oil prices are uncertain, and technology progress from vehicle batteries to advanced biofuels, remains unpredictable.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More biofuels on the market could reduce the oil prices resulting in more economic activity.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is due to the displacement of crop production onto previously unused land, which can lead to the conversion of forests and savannah to agriculture.”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 4. Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
A quarter of all agricultural land has already suffered degradation.
“Meanwhile a quarter of all agricultural land has already suffered degradation, and there is a deepening awareness of the long term consequences of a loss of biodiversity with the prospect of climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Land is multi-functional and is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.
“However, the worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited, because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Biomass contains all the elements found in fossil resources, albeit in different combinations.
“As biomass contains all the elements found in fossil resources, albeit in different combinations, therefore present and developing technologies can lead to a future based on renewable, sustainable and low carbon economies.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Biomass could sustainably contribute between a quarter and a third of the future global energy mix.
“It is reasonable to assume that biomass could sustainably contribute between a quarter and a third of the future global energy mix.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
No additional land use effect regarding productive land occurs when unproductive land is converted to bioenergy feedstock production.
“no additional land use effect regarding productive land is assumed to occur here”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Global availability of cellulosic biomass without any trade restrictions is assumed.
“assumption on global availability of cellulosic biomass without any trade restrictions may overestimate calculated bioenergy potentials”
The authors state this as an assumption.
All suitable land for agricultural production is made available for land expansion.
“if all suitable land for agricultural production was made available for land expansion”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Co-emissions from deforestation, biodiversity issues, and impacts on food and water security are not considered.
“Without considering co-emissions from deforestation, biodiversity issues, and impacts on food and water security”
The authors state this as an assumption.
No indirect LUC effects are considered.
“if no indirect LUC effects are considered”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Bioenergy systems replace fossil-based energy and bioenergy production emissions, including those arising due to land use change, are kept low.
“if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissionsincluding those arising due to land use changeare kept low”
The paper relies on this without support.
DDGS has been one of the most economically competitive sources of energy and proteins available on the world feed market over the past several years.
“Over the past several years, DDGS has been one of the most economically competitive sources of energy and proteins available on the world feed market.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Only the starch portion of the corn kernel is converted to ethanol, while the protein, fat, fiber and other components are concentrated and passed through the process to the DDGS.
“Only the starch portion of the corn kernel is converted to ethanol, while the protein, fat, fiber and other components are concentrated and passed through the process to the DDGS.”
The paper relies on this without support.
There is limited demand for glycerin for food, beverage, personal care and oral products, as well as pharmaceutical and other industrial uses.
“There is a limited demand for glycerin, the by-product of biodiesel production for a number of food, beverage, personal care and oral products, as well as pharmaceutical and other industrial uses.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Research at different countries has found that glycerin can be used effectively in livestock rations to replace fossil-based glycerin.
“To deal with that potential problem and to create additional markets for the by-product of biodiesel, research at different countries has found that glycerin can be used effectively in livestock rations to replace fossil-based glycerin.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
“The biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
“In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Increased population density, coupled with changes in dietary habits in developing countries towards high quality food, is projected to increase demand for food production by 60% by 2050.
“The increased population density, coupled with changes in dietary habits in developing countries towards high quality food is projected to increase demand for food production by 60% by 2050.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Recent estimates on the potential global ligno-cellulosic bioenergy supply range from less than 100 EJ/year to 1500 EJ/year for 2050.
“Recent estimates on the potential global ligno-cellulosic bioenergy supply range from less than 100 EJ/yearto 1500 EJ yearfor 2050.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100.
“In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Globally, advanced biofuels capacity is expected to expand only slowly, though the first commercial-scale plants in the United States and Europe were recently commissioned.
“Globally, advanced biofuels capacity is expected to expand only slowly, though the first commercial-scale plants in the United States and Europe were recently commissioned.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“95% of biodiesel (first-generation biofuel) is produced from edible oil-crops as feedstock.”
From Assessing the future prospects of emerging technologies for shipping and aviation biofuels: A critical review (2024) · cites this paper as [72]
In the citing paper
“Food competition, large crop areas and water consumption are the main barriers [72].”
From Assessing the future prospects of emerging technologies for shipping and aviation biofuels: A critical review (2024) · cites this paper as [72]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
“In 2012 global fuel ethanol production reached 86 billion liters”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.2.2. Transport biofuel market
“Total production: 85 bn L”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
“By adding co-products substituted for corn and soybean meal the net hectares needed for fuel ethanol decline to 21 million [authors' calculation].”
§ The effect of bioenergy expansion: Food, energy, and environment > 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production
“some 35% is returned to the feed sector in the form of co-products (mainly DDGS) so the land required for feedstock production declines to 15 million ha.”
Citations
Cites
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Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J., & Befort, B. L. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1116437108 · Cited by 7,692
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Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D., & Yu, T.-H. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1151861 · Cited by 4,888
Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt
Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., & Hawthorne, P. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1152747 · Cited by 3,902
Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050
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World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revisionPreprint
Alexandratos, N., & Bruinsma, J. (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.288998 · Cited by 3,192
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The State of Food Insecurity in the World
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Metadata
- Authors
- Popp, J., Lakner, Z., Harangi-Rákos, M., & Fári, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Debrecen (HU)
- Corvinus University of Budapest (HU)
- Corresponding author
- Popp, J.
- Venue
- Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2014-04
- Volume
- 32
- Pages
- 559-578
- ISSN
- 1364-0321 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1988730360
- Semantic Scholar
- 467da42573e1d57c3ca934e50ed63d5278043467
- Cited by
- 967
- References
- 73
- Citations by year
- 2026: 44 · 2025: 84 · 2024: 96 · 2023: 92 · 2022: 112 · 2021: 120 · 2020: 108 · 2019: 78 · 2018: 92 · 2017: 58 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 14
- FWCI
- 93.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- University of Debrecen Electronic Archive (University of Debrecen) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Biomedical Engineering › Biofuel production and bioconversion
- Keywords
- biofuels, land use competition, food security, energy security, biomass, climate change mitigation, water scarcity, global food prices, environmental impacts of bioenergy, renewable energy
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