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The burden and costs of chronic diseases in low-income and middle-income countries.
Abstract
This paper estimates the disease burden and loss of economic output associated with chronic diseases-mainly cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes-in 23 selected countries which account for around 80% of the total burden of chronic disease mortality in developing countries. In these 23 selected low-income and middle-income countries, chronic diseases were responsible for 50% of the total disease burden in 2005. For 15 of the selected countries where death registration data are available, the estimated age-standardised death rates for chronic diseases in 2005 were 54% higher for men and 86% higher for women than those for men and women in high-income countries. If nothing is done to reduce the risk of chronic diseases, an estimated US$84 billion of economic production will be lost from heart disease, stroke, and diabetes alone in these 23 countries between 2006 and 2015. Achievement of a global goal for chronic disease prevention and control-an additional 2% yearly reduction in chronic disease death rates over the next 10 years-would avert 24 million deaths in these countries, and would save an estimated $8 billion, which is almost 10% of the projected loss in national income over the next 10 years.
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“Epidemiological transitions are defined by a shift from a heavy burden of infectious diseases to a major prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs)”
From Colonial transition as a major mediator of global health transition: lessons from the 2024 New Caledonia crisis (2025) · cites this paper as [3]
In the citing paper
“which currently account for about 80% of all deaths worldwide”
From Colonial transition as a major mediator of global health transition: lessons from the 2024 New Caledonia crisis (2025) · cites this paper as [3]
In the citing paper
“and are thus closely connected to the ageing of the populations – i.e. the demographic transition [3]”
From Colonial transition as a major mediator of global health transition: lessons from the 2024 New Caledonia crisis (2025) · cites this paper as [3]
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“There is also an increasing recognition that in the years to come, this disease burden and the loss of economic output associated with chronic diseases will be greatest in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) [12].”
BackgroundThe economic costs of diabetes: a population-based study in Tehran, Iran
Esteghamati, A., Khalilzadeh, O., Anvari, M., Meysamie, A., Abbasi, M., Forouzanfar, M. H., & Alaeddini, F. (2009) · Diabetologia · doi:10.1007/s00125-009-1398-4 · Cited by 180
“Less attention has been given to the economic burden of diabetes in low- and middleincome countries, but in this context diabetes represents one of the most important non-communicable diseases with the potential to significantly impact upon economic growth in such countries [1, 5].”
BackgroundBertram, M. Y., Sweeny, K., Lauer, J. A., Chisholm, D., Sheehan, P., Rasmussen, B., Upreti, S. R., Dixit, L. P., George, K., & Deane, S. (2018) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)30665-2 · Cited by 175
Global Inequalities in Access to Cardiovascular Health Care
Joshi, R., Jan, S., Wu, Y., & MacMahon, S. W. (2008) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2008.08.049 · Cited by 175
Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study
Alkire, B. C., Shrime, M. G., Dare, A. J., Vincent, J. R., & Meara, J. G. (2015) · The Lancet Global Health · doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(15)70088-4 · Cited by 170
Doenças crônicas não transmissíveis no Brasil: carga e desafios atuais
Schmidt, M. I., Duncan, B. B., Mendonça, G. A. E. S., Menezes, A. M. B., Monteiro, C. A., Barreto, S. M., Chor, D., & Menezes, P. R. (2011) · The Lancet · Cited by 169
Geographical genomics of human leukocyte gene expression variation in southern Morocco
Idaghdour, Y., Czika, W., Shianna, K. V., Lee, S. H., Visscher, P. M., Martin, H. C., Miclaus, K., Jadallah, S. J., Goldstein, D. B., Wolfinger, R. D., et al. (2010) · Nature Genetics · doi:10.1038/ng.495 · Cited by 151
Equity impacts of price policies to promote healthy behaviours
Sassi, F., Belloni, A., Mirelman, A. J., Suhrcke, M., Thomas, A., Salti, N., Vellakkal, S., Visaruthvong, C., Popkin, B. M., & Nugent, R. (2018) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)30531-2 · Cited by 165
Coyle, C., Cafferty, F. H., Rowley, S. C. S., MacKenzie, M., Berkman, L., Gupta, S., Pramesh, C. S., Gilbert, D. C., Kynaston, H., Cameron, D., et al. (2016) · Contemporary Clinical Trials · doi:10.1016/j.cct.2016.10.004 · Cited by 164
Liu, J., Bai, R., Chai, Z., Cooper, M. E., Zimmet, P., & Zhang, L. (2022) · Diabetologia · doi:10.1007/s00125-022-05713-6 · Cited by 165
“Our study demonstrated a rapidly growing trend of type 2 diabetes burden in low- and middle-income country settings, although concerns related to type 2 diabetes burden have historically focused on HICs, which was consistent with previous studies [29, 30].”
ResultThe Economic Implications of Non-Communicable Disease for India
Mahal, A. S., Karan, A., & Engelgau, M. M. (2010) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/13649 · Cited by 154
“Respiratory Conditions Two recent studies (Murthy and Sastry 2005a, b), along with Abegunde et al. (2007) provide the only available economic analyses of the impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (chronic bronchitis and emphysema), and asthma in India.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialOliveri, S., Ferrari, F., Manfrinati, A., & Pravettoni, G. (2018) · Frontiers in Genetics · doi:10.3389/fgene.2018.00624 · Cited by 153
“Since they will have even larger economic implications in the future, policy-makers have increasingly focused their attention on them (Abegunde et al., 2007; Désesquelles et al., 2014; Mackenbach et al., 2014; Suzman et al., 2015).”
BackgroundNon-Communicable Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case for Cohort Studies
Holmes, M. D., Dalal, S., Volmink, J. A., Adebamowo, C., Njelekela, M. A., Fawzi, W. W., Willett, W. C., & Adami, H. (2010) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000244 · Cited by 160
“Over 80% of deaths from non-communicable diseases worldwide are estimated to occur in low- and middle-income countries”
BackgroundRoth, G. A., Fihn, S. D., Mokdad, A. H., Aekplakorn, W., Hasegawa, T., & Lim, S. S. (2011) · Bulletin of the World Health Organization · doi:10.2471/blt.10.079947 · Cited by 150
Brinda, E. M., Kowal, P. R., Attermann, J., & Enemark, U. (2015) · Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech-2014-204960 · Cited by 148
Simões, E. J., Hallal, P. C., Pratt, M., Ramos, L. R., Munk, M., Damascena, W., Parra, D. C., Hoehner, C. M., Gilbertz, D. A., Malta, D. C., et al. (2008) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.2008.141978 · Cited by 147
Nutritional Evaluation of Five African Indigenous Vegetables
Kamga, R. T., Kouamé, C., Atangana, A. R., Chagomoka, T., & Ndango, R. (2013) · Journal of Horticultural Research · doi:10.2478/johr-2013-0014 · Cited by 146
“It is anticipated that Africa will lose at least a cumulative US $ 4 billion to chronic diseases by 2015 (Abegunde et al. 2007).”
BackgroundSuemoto, C. K., Ferretti‐Rebustini, R. E. D. L., Rodriguez, R. D., Leite, R. E. P., Soterio, L., Brucki, S. M. D., Spera, R. R., Cippiciani, T. M., Farfel, J. M., Filho, A. D. P. C., et al. (2017) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002267 · Cited by 152
“Much of this increase will be due to a surge in dementia prevalence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).”
BackgroundInfluentialVerstraeten, R., Roberfroid, D., Lachat, C., Leroy, J. L., Holdsworth, M., Maes, L., & Kolsteren, P. W. (2012) · The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.3945/ajcn.112.035378 · Cited by 208
Leveraging Rapid Community-Based HIV Testing Campaigns for Non-Communicable Diseases in Rural Uganda
Chamie, G., Kwarisiima, D., Clark, T. D., Kabami, J., Jain, V., Geng, E., Petersen, M. L., Thirumurthy, H., Kamya, M. R., Havlir, D. V., et al. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043400 · Cited by 142
“[15] Our estimates of hypertension and diabetes prevalence are within the range of published estimates for east Africa.”
ResultHealth transition in Africa: practical policy proposals for primary care
Maher, D., & Sekajugo, J. (2010) · Bulletin of the World Health Organization · doi:10.2471/blt.10.077891 · Cited by 145
Malta, D. C., Bernal, R. T. I., de Souza, M. D. F. M., Szwarcwald, C. L., Lima, M. G., & Barros, M. B. D. A. (2016) · International Journal for Equity in Health · doi:10.1186/s12939-016-0427-4 · Cited by 144
“This may lead to a greater state of poverty for these families [2, 3, 5], which consequently worsens social inequalities [2, 3].”
BackgroundInfluentialSadeghi, M., Haghdoost, A. A., Bahrampour, A., & Dehghani, M. (2017) · Europe PMC (PubMed Central) · Cited by 138
Cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and cancer in the occupied Palestinian territory
Husseini, A. S., Abu-Rmeileh, N. M., Mikki, N., Ramahi, T. M., Ghosh, H. A., Barghuthi, N., Khalili, M., Bjertness, E., Holmboe‐Ottesen, G., & Jervell, J. (2009) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(09)60109-4 · Cited by 142
Metadata
- Authors
- Abegunde, D. O., Mathers, C. D., Adam, T., Ortegon, M., & Strong, K.
- Affiliations
- World Health Organization (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Mathers, Colin D
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2007-12
- Volume
- 370
- Issue
- 9603
- Pages
- 1929-1938
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W1987313755
- Cited by
- 1,603
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 44 · 2024: 62 · 2023: 58 · 2022: 87 · 2021: 68 · 2020: 123 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 98 · 2017: 113 · 2016: 111 · 2015: 106 · 2014: 115 · 2013: 106 · 2012: 96
- FWCI
- 10.28
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Global Health Care Issues
- Keywords
- chronic disease, disease burden, economic cost of illness, cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes mellitus, low-income countries, middle-income countries, sex differences in mortality, mortality averted, chronic disease prevention, global health goals
- MeSH terms
- Chronic Disease, Developing Countries, Female, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Registries, Global Health, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution
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