Affective polarization and coalition signals
Open accessAbstract
Affective polarization between partisans is potentially troubling for liberal democracy. Hence, recent research has focused on how affective dislike between partisans can be reduced. Using a survey experiment in Austria, we test whether elite signals matter. Respondents exposed to fictional news stories implying that their in-party might form a coalition with an out-party show reduced dislike toward supporters of that out-party. Our experiment also shows that coalition signals can influence out-party affect even if neither of the two parties signaling cooperation are an in-party. We conclude that cooperation between rivals has an important role in reducing affective polarization.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Many previously disliked parties are seen more positively when they enter a coalition government with more positively viewed parties.
“Yet many previously disliked parties are seen more positively when they enter a coalition government with more positively viewed parties (Horne et al., 2023;Wagner & Praprotnik, 2024).”
From Measuring affective polarization: Matching concepts to measures (2026) · cites this paper as Wagner & Praprotnik, 2024
The Introduction and section 5.3 report that some voters view supporters of a disliked out-party more positively when it signals a coalition with a party from a more positively viewed ideological bloc. The study tests signals about potential coalitions, not whether views change when parties actually enter a coalition government; it also does not establish this response for disliked parties generally. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion
Zaller, J. R. (1992) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511818691 · Cited by 7,785 · see citing works
Mudde, C. (2004) · Government and Opposition · doi:10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x · Cited by 5,286 · see citing works
The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States
Iyengar, S., Lelkes, Y., Levendusky, M., Malhotra, N., & Westwood, S. J. (2019) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034 · Cited by 3,317 · see citing works
Iyengar, S., Sood, G., & Lelkes, Y. (2012) · Public Opinion Quarterly · doi:10.1093/poq/nfs038 · Cited by 2,748 · see citing works
A Social Identity Theory of Leadership
Hogg, M. A. (2001) · Personality and Social Psychology Review · doi:10.1207/s15327957pspr0503_1 · Cited by 2,298 · see citing works
Uncivil Agreement: How Politics Became Our Identity
Mason, L. (2018) · doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226524689.001.0001 · Cited by 1,985 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…threat will thus depend on factors such as the ideological distance between one ’ s own preferences and those of the party (Rogowski and Sutherland, 2016) or the extent to which groups have solidified into stable, deep-seated social identities or even tribes (Mason, 2018; Finkel et al. , 2020).”
IMAI, K., KEELE, L., TINGLEY, D., & YAMAMOTO, T. (2011) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055411000414 · Cited by 1,537 · see citing works
Prejudice Reduction: What Works? A Review and Assessment of Research and Practice
Paluck, E. L., & Green, D. P. (2009) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.60.110707.163607 · Cited by 1,376 · see citing works
Bartolini, S., & Mair, P. (1990) · Cadmus - EUI Research Repository (European University Institute) · Cited by 1,111 · see citing works
Political Sectarianism in America
Finkel, E. J., Bail, C. A., Cikara, M., Ditto, P. H., Iyengar, S., Klar, S., Mason, L., McGrath, M. C., Nyhan, B., Rand, D. G., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abe1715 · Cited by 931 · see citing works
Hicks, R., & Tingley, D. H. (2011) · The Stata Journal Promoting communications on statistics and Stata · doi:10.1177/1536867x1201100407 · Cited by 810 · see citing works
Prejudice Reduction: Progress and Challenges
Paluck, E. L., Porat, R., Clark, C. S., & Green, D. P. (2021) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-psych-071620-030619 · Cited by 686 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Other work explicitly focuses on the effectiveness of specific interventions, inspired by a recent revival of interest in research on prejudice reduction (Paluck and Green, 2009; Paluck et al. , 2021).”
InfluentialWhat do we measure when we measure affective polarization?
Druckman, J. N., & Levendusky, M. S. (2019) · Public Opinion Quarterly · doi:10.1093/poq/nfz003 · Cited by 615 · see citing works
The Role of Threats in the Racial Attitudes of Blacks and Whites
Stephan, W. G., Boniecki, K. A., Ybarra, O., Bettencourt, A., Ervin, K. S., Jackson, L. A., McNatt, P. S., & Renfro, C. L. (2002) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/01461672022812009 · Cited by 605 · see citing works
Affective Polarization in Multiparty Systems
Wagner, M. (2021) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102199 · Cited by 593 · see citing works
Self-citationReiljan, A. (2020) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12351 · Cited by 592 · see citing works
The Ideological Foundations of Affective Polarization in the U.S. Electorate
Webster, S. W., & Abramowitz, A. I. (2017) · American Politics Research · doi:10.1177/1532673x17703132 · Cited by 557 · see citing works
Oesch, D., & Rennwald, L. (2018) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12259 · Cited by 533 · see citing works
How Ideology Fuels Affective Polarization
Rogowski, J. C., & Sutherland, J. L. (2016) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-015-9323-7 · Cited by 503 · see citing works
Americans, Not Partisans: Can Priming American National Identity Reduce Affective Polarization?
Levendusky, M. S. (2018) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/693987 · Cited by 492 · see citing works
American Affective Polarization in Comparative Perspective
Gidron, N., Adams, J., & Horne, W. (2020) · doi:10.1017/9781108914123 · Cited by 481 · see citing works
Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization
Boxell, L., Gentzkow, M., & Shapiro, J. M. (2024) · Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_01160 · Cited by 457 · see citing works
Does Media Coverage of Partisan Polarization Affect Political Attitudes?
Levendusky, M., & Malhotra, N. (2016) · Political Communication · doi:10.1080/10584609.2015.1038455 · Cited by 419 · see citing works
Abou-Chadi, T. (2016) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123414000155 · Cited by 374 · see citing works
Party Brands and Partisanship: Theory with Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Argentina
Lupu, N. (2012) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00615.x · Cited by 285 · see citing works
van Spanje, J., & van der Brug, W. (2007) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402380701617431 · Cited by 280 · see citing works
Perceptions of Partisan Ideologies: The Effect of Coalition Participation
Fortunato, D., & Stevenson, R. T. (2012) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00623.x · Cited by 270 · see citing works
Wojcieszak, M., & Warner, B. R. (2020) · Political Communication · doi:10.1080/10584609.2020.1760406 · Cited by 232 · see citing works
The Policy Basis of Measured Partisan Animosity in the United States
Orr, L., & Huber, G. A. (2019) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12498 · Cited by 208 · see citing works
Fragmented foes: Affective polarization in the multiparty context of The Netherlands
Harteveld, E. (2021) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102332 · Cited by 179 · see citing works
Wagner, M., & Meyer, T. M. (2016) · Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0032321716639065 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Self-citationParliamentary Representation and the Normalization of Radical Right Support
Valentim, V. (2021) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414021997159 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Slothuus, R. (2015) · Political Communication · doi:10.1080/10584609.2015.1052892 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Reducing affective polarization: Warm group relations or policy compromise?
Huddy, L., & Yair, O. (2021) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12699 · Cited by 124 · cited 7× · see citing works
“This is meant to capture the “ warm personal relations ” that sometimes accompany coalition signals (Huddy and Yair, 2021).”
InfluentialAffective blocs: Understanding affective polarization in multiparty systems
Kekkonen, A., & Ylä‐Anttila, T. (2021) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102367 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Bassan‐Nygate, L., & WEISS, C. M. (2021) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/00104140211024283 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Reiljan, A., & Ryan, A. (2021) · Scandinavian Political Studies · doi:10.1111/1467-9477.12194 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Validating the feeling thermometer as a measure of partisan affect in multi-party systems
Gidron, N., Sheffer, L., & Mor, G. (2022) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102542 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
McCoy, J., & Somer, M. (2021) · Journal of democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.2021.0012 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Does affective polarisation increase turnout? Evidence from Germany, The Netherlands and Spain
Harteveld, E., & Wagner, M. (2022) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2022.2087395 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Self-citationAdams, J., Ezrow, L., & Wlezien, C. B. (2015) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12231 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Does Talking to the Other Side Reduce Inter-party Hostility? Evidence from Three Studies
Amsalem, E., Merkley, E., & Loewen, P. J. (2021) · Political Communication · doi:10.1080/10584609.2021.1955056 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Intergroup threat and affective polarization in a multi-party system
Renström, E. A., Bäck, H., & Carroll, R. (2021) · Journal of Social and Political Psychology · doi:10.5964/jspp.7539 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
The way we were: How histories of co‐governance alleviate partisan hostility
Horne, W., Adams, J., & Gidron, N. (2023) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/00104140221100197 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
When Efforts to Depolarize the Electorate Fail
Levendusky, M. S. (2018) · Public Opinion Quarterly · doi:10.1093/poq/nfy036 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Wojcieszak, M., Winter, S., & Yu, X. (2020) · Mass Communication & Society · doi:10.1080/15205436.2020.1714663 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
What Makes Parties Adapt to Voter Preferences? The Role of Party Organization, Goals and Ideology
Bischof, D., & Wagner, M. (2017) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123417000357 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationAffective Polarization Did Not Increase During the Coronavirus Pandemic
Boxell, L., Conway, J., Druckman, J. N., & Gentzkow, M. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3785328 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Choices that matter: Coalition formation and parties’ ideological reputations
Falcó-Gimeno, A., & Fernández-Vázquez, P. (2020) · Political Science Research and Methods · doi:10.1017/psrm.2018.63 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Show Me Your Friends: A Survey Experiment on the Effect of Coalition Signals
Falcó-Gimeno, A., & Muñoz, J. (2017) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/693369 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Collaboration or competition? Experimental evidence for coalition heuristics
Hjermitslev, I. B. (2022) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12537 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
No Additional Evidence that Proximity to the July 4th Holiday Affects Affective Polarization
Brandt, M. J., & Turner-Zwinkels, F. M. (2020) · Collabra Psychology · doi:10.1525/collabra.368 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Affective polarization in Europe
Wagner, M. (2024) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s1755773923000383 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Self-citationA new regime divide? Democratic backsliding, attitudes towards democracy and affective polarization
Gessler, T., & Wunsch, N. (2025) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12751 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Differentiating the sources of post‐election partisan affect warming
Gidron, N., & Sheffer, L. (2024) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12641 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Mainstream partisans’ affective response to (non) cooperation with populist radical right parties
Russo, L., & Brock, P. S. (2024) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2024.2336436 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Vanagt, J., Praprotnik, K., Russo, L., & Wagner, M. (2024) · Politics and Governance · doi:10.17645/pag.8531 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationVanagt, J., & Kollberg, M. (2025) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.70012 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Who cooperates with whom? The role of day-to-day partisan cooperation in affective polarization
Santoso, L. P. (2024) · Party Politics · doi:10.1177/13540688241242273 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
A new regime divide? Partisan affect and attitudes towards democratic backslidingPreprint
Gessler, T., & Wunsch, N. (2023) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/nbwmj · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Elite Cooperation and Affective Polarization: Evidence From German Coalitions
Wagner, M., & Harteveld, E. (2024) · Political Studies · doi:10.1177/00323217241300993 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationVanagt, J., Praprotnik, K., Russo, L., & Wagner, M. (2025) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2025.2558980 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationComellas, J. M., & Torcal, M. (2025) · Political Studies · doi:10.1177/00323217251340890 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Cabada, L., & Charvát, J. (2024) · Teoria Polityki · doi:10.4467/25440845tp.24.001.20593 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Galais, C., & Balinhas, D. (2024) · International Journal of Public Opinion Research · doi:10.1093/ijpor/edae059 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
da Silva, F. F. (2025) · South European Society & Politics · doi:10.1080/13608746.2025.2562297 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Polarization, fragmentation, and democratic deconsolidation in interwar Europe
Kaftan, L., & Bormann, N. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2537218 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Dynamics of Electoral Polarisation in Climate Policy Discourse: A Temporal Network Analysis
Drecker, P. (2025) · Politics and Governance · doi:10.17645/pag.10004 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Measuring affective polarization: Matching concepts to measures
Druckman, J. N., Klar, S., Krupnikov, Y., Levendusky, M., & Ryan, J. B. (2026) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.70152 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Voter Sophistication and Coalition Politics
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.001.0001 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
A Male Hostility Spiral? Polarized Communication among Political Elites on Social Media
Wendsjö, A., Bäck, H., & Kokkonen, A. (2025) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/739664 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.002.0005
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.002.0007
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.003.0002
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.003.0001
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.003.0003
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.003.0007
Whether to Govern, and If So, with Whom?
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.003.0005
Voters and Coalitions: Looking Ahead
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.003.0008
What You See Is Not Always What You Get
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.003.0006
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.002.0006
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.002.0008
Modeling Government Formation: A Unified Approach
Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.003.0004
(2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198973317.002.0002
Congenial messages from politicians reduce affective polarization among citizens
Pedersen, R. T., Christensen, J., & Petersen, N. B. G. (2025) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1017/s1475676525100030
Kollberg, M., & Vanagt, J. (2025) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
Wurthmann, L. C., Kurz, K. R., & Wagner, S. (2026) · Politische Vierteljahresschrift · doi:10.1007/s11615-026-00649-7
Election salience revisited: How elections (do not) boost affective polarization
Eck, B., & Michel, E. (2026) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103116
From instability to hostility: Coalition collapse and affective polarization
Hormig, F., & Otteni, C. (2026) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103114
Watching a Video of College Professors Disagreeing Agreeably to Lower Affective Polarization
Kam, C. (2026) · Psychological Reports · doi:10.1177/00332941261473832
Santoso, L. P. (2026) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-026-10191-2
Coalitions for democracy: electoral coordination and satisfaction with democracy
Delabie, I., Nonnemacher, J., & Spoon, J. (2026) · French Politics · doi:10.1057/s41253-026-00336-4
Binder, W., Revers, M., Morgan, M., & Luengo, M. (2026) · British Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1111/1468-4446.70180
- Authors
- Wagner, M., & Praprotnik, K.
- Affiliations
- University of Vienna (AT)
- University of Graz (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Wagner, Markus
- Venue
- Political Science Research and Methods
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2023-09-07
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 336-353
- ISSN
- 2049-8470 (ISSN-L)
- 2049-8489
- OpenAlex
- W4386506626
- Cited by
- 41
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 2
- FWCI
- 40.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Political Science Research and Methods (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Cambridge
- Universitat de Barcelona
- Universität Konstanz
- HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council (101044069)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Media Influence and Politics
- Keywords
- affective polarization, interparty cooperation, liberal democracy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
