Reasons for confidence.

Perceived informativeness of facts.

Fischhoff, B. (1977) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance · doi:10.1037/0096-1523.3.2.349 · Cited by 404 · see citing works

Training for calibration

Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1980) · Organizational Behavior and Human Performance · doi:10.1016/0030-5073(80)90052-5 · Cited by 375 · see citing works

Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability

BRIER, G. W. (1950) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078%3c0001:vofeit%3e2.0.co;2

The case for motivated reasoning.

Kunda, Z. (1990) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480 · Cited by 9,022 · see citing works

Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises

Nickerson, R. S. (1998) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175 · Cited by 7,267 · see citing works

Dimensions of Consumer Expertise

Alba, J. W., & Hutchinson, J. W. (1987) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1086/209080 · Cited by 4,375 · see citing works

Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.90.4.293 · Cited by 3,991 · see citing works

Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality.

Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1996) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.103.4.650 · Cited by 3,504 · see citing works

All Frames Are Not Created Equal: A Typology and Critical Analysis of Framing Effects

Levin, I. P., Schneider, S. L., & Gaeth, G. J. (1998) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1006/obhd.1998.2804 · Cited by 2,592 · see citing works

The trouble with overconfidence.

Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.115.2.502 · Cited by 2,358 · see citing works

“Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment.”

Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.2648573 · Cited by 2,298 · see citing works

HARKing: Hypothesizing after the results are known

Kerr, N. L. (1998) · Personality and Social Psychology Review · doi:10.1207/s15327957pspr0203_4 · Cited by 1,989 · see citing works

Epistemic Vigilance

SPERBER, D., CLÉMENT, F., HEINTZ, C., MASCARO, O., MERCIER, H., ORIGGI, G., & WILSON, D. (2010) · Mind & Language · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0017.2010.01394.x · Cited by 1,795 · see citing works

Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence

Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbölting, H. (1991) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.98.4.506 · Cited by 1,506 · see citing works

Monitoring one’s own knowledge during study: A cue-utilization approach to judgments of learning

Koriat, A. (1997) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: General · doi:10.1037/0096-3445.126.4.349 · Cited by 1,363 · see citing works

Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability

Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.101.4.547 · Cited by 1,167 · see citing works

Motivated inference: Self‐serving generation and evaluation of causal theories

Kunda, Z. (1987) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.53.4.636 · Cited by 1,059 · see citing works

Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases

Babcock, L., & Loewenstein, G. (1997) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.11.1.109 · Cited by 1,071 · see citing works

How do we know that we know? The accessibility model of the feeling of knowing

Koriat, A. (1993) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.100.4.609 · Cited by 895 · see citing works

Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability.

Dunning, D., Meyerowitz, J. A., & Holzberg, A. D. (1989) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.57.6.1082 · Cited by 758 · see citing works

Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence.

Pleskac, T. J., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2010) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/a0019737 · Cited by 722 · see citing works

Overcoming the Inevitable Anchoring Effect: Considering the Opposite Compensates for Selective Accessibility

Mussweiler, T., Strack, F., & Pfeiffer, T. (2000) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/01461672002611010 · Cited by 556 · see citing works

Metacognition and consciousness

Koriat, A. (2007) · The Cambridge Handbook of Consciousness · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511816789.012 · Cited by 554 · see citing works

Associative processes in intuitive judgment

Morewedge, C. K., & Kahneman, D. (2010) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2010.07.004 · Cited by 492 · see citing works

Test prediction and performance in a classroom context.

Hacker, D. J., Bol, L., Horgan, D. D., & Rakow, E. A. (2000) · Journal of Educational Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-0663.92.1.160 · Cited by 464 · see citing works

What we know about spreadsheet errors

Panko, R. R. (1998) · Journal of Organizational and End User Computing · doi:10.4018/joeuc.1998040102 · Cited by 464 · see citing works

Metacognitive experiences and the intricacies of setting people straight: implications for debiasing and public information campaigns

Schwarz, N., Sanna, L. J., Skurnik, I., & Yoon, C. (2007) · Advances in Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(06)39003-x · Cited by 441 · see citing works

Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gurcay, B., Fincher, K., Scott, S. E., Moore, D., Atanasov, P., Swift, S. A., et al. (2014) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797614524255 · Cited by 312 · see citing works

The Accuracy-Confidence Correlation in the Detection of Deception

DePaulo, B. M., Charlton, K., Cooper, H., Lindsay, J. J., & Muhlenbruck, L. (1997) · Personality and Social Psychology Review · doi:10.1207/s15327957pspr0104_5 · Cited by 288 · see citing works

Physicians’ Diagnostic Accuracy, Confidence, and Resource Requests: A Vignette Study

Meyer, A. N. D., Payne, V. L., Meeks, D. W., Rao, R., & Singh, H. (2013) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2013.10081 · Cited by 268 · see citing works

Predictors and consequences of intellectual humility

Porter, T., Elnakouri, A., Meyers, E. A., Shibayama, T., Jayawickreme, E., & Grossmann, I. (2022) · Nature Reviews Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44159-022-00081-9 · Cited by 248 · see citing works

Confidence in judgment

Harvey, N. (1997) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/s1364-6613(97)01014-0 · Cited by 239 · see citing works

When asking the question changes the ultimate answer: Metamemory judgments change memory

Mitchum, A. L., Kelley, C. M., & Fox, M. C. (2016) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: General · doi:10.1037/a0039923 · Cited by 148 · see citing works

Is there a G factor for metacognition? Correlations in retrospective metacognitive sensitivity across tasks.

Mazancieux, A., Fleming, S. M., Souchay, C., & Moulin, C. J. A. (2020) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: General · doi:10.1037/xge0000746 · Cited by 131 · see citing works

An Assessment Instrument of Technological Literacies in Makerspaces and FabLabs

Blikstein, P., Kabayadondo, Z., Martin, A., & Fields, D. (2017) · Journal of Engineering Education · doi:10.1002/jee.20156 · Cited by 119 · see citing works

Confirmation Bias and the Sexual Double Standard

Marks, M. J., & Fraley, R. C. (2006) · Sex Roles · doi:10.1007/s11199-006-8866-9 · Cited by 109 · see citing works

Overconfidence as dissonance reduction

Blanton, H., Pelham, B. W., DeHart, T., & Carvallo, M. (2001) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1006/jesp.2000.1458 · Cited by 106 · see citing works

Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments

Chang, W., Chen, E., Mellers, B., & Tetlock, P. (2016) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500004599 · Cited by 89 · see citing works

Anesthesiologists’ Overconfidence in Their Perceived Knowledge of Neuromuscular Monitoring and Its Relevance to All Aspects of Medical Practice: An International Survey

Naguib, M., Brull, S. J., Hunter, J. M., Kopman, A. F., Fülesdi, B., Johnson, K. B., & Arkes, H. R. (2019) · Anesthesia & Analgesia · doi:10.1213/ane.0000000000003714 · Cited by 82 · see citing works

Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration

Walters, D. J., Fernbach, P. M., Fox, C. R., & Sloman, S. A. (2017) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2016.2580 · Cited by 62 · see citing works

Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization

Mellers, B., Tetlock, P., & Arkes, H. R. (2019) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2018.10.021 · Cited by 46 · see citing works

Correlating student knowledge and confidence using a graded knowledge survey to assess student learning in a general microbiology classroom

Favazzo, L., Willford, J. D., & Watson, R. M. (2014) · Journal of Microbiology & Biology Education · doi:10.1128/jmbe.v15i2.693 · Cited by 34 · see citing works

Search & Verify: Misinformation and source evaluations in Internet search results

Dennis, A. R., Moravec, P. L., & Kim, A. (2023) · Decision Support Systems · doi:10.1016/j.dss.2023.113976 · Cited by 16 · see citing works