Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis

Grove, William M.; Zald, David H.; Lebow, Boyd S.; Snitz, Beth E.; Nelson, Chad

doi:10.1037/1040-3590.12.1.19

Cited by 1,640Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic SkillsDecision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsForecasting Techniques and Applications

Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis

Grove, William M., Zald, David H., Lebow, Boyd S., Snitz, Beth E., Nelson, Chad·2000·Psychological Assessment

DOI 10.1037/1040-3590.12.1.19

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Abstract

The process of making judgments and decisions requires a method for combining data. To compare the accuracy of clinical and mechanical (formal, statistical) data-combination techniques, we performed a meta-analysis on studies of human health and behavior. On average, mechanical-prediction techniques were about 10% more accurate than clinical predictions. Depending on the specific analysis, mechanical prediction substantially outperformed clinical prediction in 33%-47% of studies examined. Although clinical predictions were often as accurate as mechanical predictions, in only a few studies (6%-16%) were they substantially more accurate. Superiority for mechanical-prediction techniques was consistent, regardless of the judgment task, type of judges, judges' amounts of experience, or the types of data being combined. Clinical predictions performed relatively less well when predictors included clinical interview data. These data indicate that mechanical predictions of human behaviors are equal or superior to clinical prediction methods for a wide range of circumstances.

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Many clinicians assume that intuition and judgement are more important determinants of a positive outcome than the material in manuals, despite evidence to the contrary.
“That is, many clinicians assume that intuition and judgement are more important determinants of a positive outcome than the material in manuals, despite evidence to the contrary (Grove et al., 2000).”
From To deliver or not to deliver cognitive behavioral therapy for eating disorders: Replication and extension of our understanding of why therapists fail to do what they should do (2018) · cites this paper as Grove et al., 2000
There is no evidence that clinician judgement is more effective according to one's profession, level of training, or duration of experience.
“Furthermore, there was no evidence that clinician judgement is more effective according to one's profession, level of training, or duration of experience”
From Therapist drift redux: Why well-meaning clinicians fail to deliver evidence-based therapy, and how to get back on track (2016) · cites this paper as Grove et al., 2000
Age and experience are not enough to ensure that we improve, and might be more closely related to drift from evidence-based methods and weaker patient outcomes.
“Age and experience are not enough to ensure that we improve, and might be more closely related to drift from evidence-based methods and weaker patient outcomes”
From Therapist drift redux: Why well-meaning clinicians fail to deliver evidence-based therapy, and how to get back on track (2016) · cites this paper as Grove et al., 2000
Some apparent markers of quality, including level of experience and accreditation, are of dubious worth for delivering evidence-based therapies robustly.
“We also know that some apparent markers of quality are of dubious worth when it comes to delivering evidencebased therapies robustly, including our level of experience and accreditation (e.g., Brosan, Reynolds & Moore, 2006; Grove et al., 2000).”
From Therapist drift redux: Why well-meaning clinicians fail to deliver evidence-based therapy, and how to get back on track (2016) · cites this paper as Grove et al., 2000

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Brown, G. G., Spicer, K. B., Robertson, W. M., et al. (1989) · The Clinical Neuropsychologist · doi:10.1080/13854048908401483 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Statistical versus clinical prediction: Length of neuropsychiatric hospital stay.
Johnston, R., & McNeal, B. F. (1967) · Journal of Abnormal Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0020105 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Toward a second generation of statistical prediction rules in psychodiagnosis and personality assessment
Garb, H. N. (1994) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/0747-5632(94)90063-9 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
The Efficacy of Alternative Approaches to Parole Prediction
Gläser, D. (1955) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/2087386 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Computer-Aided Diagnosis of Lower Gastrointestinal Tract Disorders
de Dombal, F. T., Clamp, S. E., Leaper, D. J., et al. (1975) · Gastroenterology · doi:10.1016/s0016-5085(75)80006-0 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Impact of a cardiology data bank on physicians' prognostic estimates. Evidence that cardiology fellows change their estimates to become as accurate as the faculty
Goldman, L. (1981) · Archives of Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/archinte.141.12.1631 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Comparison and combination of clinical and statistical predictions of recidivism among adult offenders.
Holland, T. R., Holt, N., Levi, M., et al. (1983) · Journal of Applied Psychology · doi:10.1037/0021-9010.68.2.203 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Probabilistic information processing: Implementation and evaluation of a Semi-PIP diagnostic system
Gustafson, D. H., Kestly, J. J., Ludke, R. L., & Larson, F. C. (1973) · Computers and Biomedical Research · doi:10.1016/0010-4809(73)90071-2 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Projection and Behavior: A Rorschach Study of Assaultive Mental Hospital Patients
Storment, C. T., & Finney, B. C. (1953) · Journal of Projective Techniques · doi:10.1080/08853126.1953.10380498 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Sign and seer: Another example.
Kleinmuntz, B. (1967) · Journal of Abnormal Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0024433 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
On individualizing the psychologist's clinical evaluation
Tallent, N. (1958) · Journal of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1002/1097-4679(195807)14:3 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Pattern-Recognition: A Comparison of the Performance of Clinicians and Non-Clinicians - with a Note on the Performance of a Computer-Based System
de Dombal, F. T., Horrocks, J. C., Staniland, J. R., et al. (1972) · Methods of Information in Medicine · doi:10.1055/s-0038-1636061 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Diagnosis of complex acid-base disorders: Physician performance versus the microcomputer
Schreck, D. M., Zacharias, D., & Grunau, C. F. (1986) · Annals of Emergency Medicine · doi:10.1016/s0196-0644(86)80013-0 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Looking for "Indicants" in the Differential Diagnosis of Jaundice
Boom, R., González, C. N., Fridman, L., et al. (1986) · Medical Decision Making · doi:10.1177/0272989x8600600107 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
ASSESSMENTS OF HIGHER‐LEVEL PERSONNEL: II. VALIDITY OF THE OVER‐ALL ASSESSMENT PROCESS
Campbell, J. T., Otis, J. L., Liske, R. E., et al. (1962) · Personnel Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.1744-6570.1962.tb01847.x · Cited by 20 · see citing works
MMPI in actuarial diagnosis of psychological disturbance among college males.
Cooke, J. K. (1967) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0024878 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Presentation and diagnosis of acute abdominal pain in Finland: a computer aided study.
Jk, I., Rokkanen, P. U., Grönroos, P., et al. (1983) · PubMed · Cited by 19 · see citing works
A Validation of the Glueck Social Prediction Scale for Proneness to Delinquency
Thompson, R. E. (1952) · The Journal of Criminal Law Criminology and Police Science · doi:10.2307/1139334 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Psychological activities at the United States Coast Guard Academy.
Bobbitt, J. M., & Newman, S. H. (1944) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/h0063514 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
COMPUTERS IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY
Weinrauch, H. (1959) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1959.03000200038008 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Multiple MMPI Profiles of Suicidal Persons
Devries, A. G., & Shneidman, E. S. (1967) · Psychological Reports · doi:10.2466/pr0.1967.21.2.401 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
PREDICTING PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONS
Campbell, J. T., Prien, E. P., & Brailey, L. G. (1960) · Personnel Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.1744-6570.1960.tb02101.x · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Prospective Trial of Computer Program for the Diagnosis of Thyroid Disorders
Oddie, T. H., HALES, I. B., Stiel, J. N., et al. (1974) · The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism · doi:10.1210/jcem-38-5-876 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Clinical intuition and test scores as a basis for diagnosis.
Klehr, H. (1949) · Journal of Consulting Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0057291 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Detecting Faking on the Rorschach: Computer Versus Expert Clinical Judgment
Kahn, M. W., Fox, H. M., & Rhode, R. (1988) · Journal of Personality Assessment · doi:10.1207/s15327752jpa5203_14 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
The Diagnosis of Myocardial Infarction by Computer-Derived Protocol in a Municipal Hospital
Poretsky, L., Leibowitz, I., & Friedman, S. A. (1985) · Angiology · doi:10.1177/000331978503600305 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
HIGH SCHOOL TEACHER PREDICTION of College Success
Pierson, L. R. (1958) · The Personnel and Guidance Journal · doi:10.1002/j.2164-4918.1958.tb01175.x · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Thematic Apperception Test: An empirical examination of some indices of homosexuality.
Lindzey, G. E., Tejessy, C., & Zamansky, H. S. (1958) · Journal of Abnormal & Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0047271 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Prediction of mental illness in college students on the basis of "nonpsychiatric" MMPI profiles.
Danet, B. N. (1965) · Journal of Consulting Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0022752 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Judgmental versus mathematical prediction: An investigation by analogy of the clinical versus statistical controversy
Harris, J. G. (2007) · Systems Research and Behavioral Science · doi:10.1002/bs.3830080406 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Comparison of reports on lung function tests made by chest physicians with those made by a simple computer program.
Geddes, D., Green, M., & Emerson, P. (1978) · Thorax · doi:10.1136/thx.33.2.257 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Accuracy of actuarial and clinical predictions for length of stay and unauthorized absence.
Rc, E., Altman, H., Sletten, I. W., et al. (1975) · PubMed · Cited by 13 · see citing works
"British Journal of Medical Education"
Ellis, J. (1966) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.2.5523.1202 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
PREDICTION OF DRUG EFFECT IN PERSONALITY DISORDERS
Klein, D. F., Honigfeld, G., & Feldman, S. (1973) · The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease · doi:10.1097/00005053-197303000-00003 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Symptom changes associated with improvement in schizophrenia.
Goldberg, S. C., & Mattsson, N. (1967) · Journal of Consulting Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0020995 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Longitudinal study of medical students selected for admission to medical school by actuarial and committee methods 1
Schofield, W., & Garrard, J. M. (1975) · Medical Education · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2923.1975.tb01900.x · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Intuitive versus objective prediction from a test
Hovey, H. B., & Stauffacher, J. C. (1953) · Journal of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1002/1097-4679(195310)9:4 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
CLINICAL VERSUS ACTUARIAL PREDICTION OF COLLEGE ACHIEVEMENT AND LEADERSHIP ACTIVITY.
Vance, F. L., & Watley, D. J. (1964) · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Personality Factors in Work Output: Four Studies of Factory Workers
Peck, R. F., & PARSONS, J. W. (1956) · Personnel Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.1744-6570.1956.tb01827.x · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Clinical and actuarial predictions of academic survival and attrition.
Truesdell, A. B., & Bath, J. A. (1957) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0044494 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Counselor vs. statistical predictions of job satisfaction in engineering.
Lewis, E. C., & MacKinney, A. C. (1961) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0043207 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Prediction of juvenile probation violators.
Smith, J. F., & Lanyon, R. I. (1968) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0025451 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
PROQSY: a Computerised Technique for Psychiatric Case Identification in General Practice
Wilkinson, G., & Markus, A. C. (1989) · The British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.154.3.378 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Using a battery of tests to predict suicide in a long-term hospital: A quantitative analysis
Smith, K. (1981) · Journal of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1002/1097-4679(198107)37:3 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
On the predicting of volcanic eruptions in Iceland
Thorarinsson, S. (1960) · Bulletin of Volcanology · doi:10.1007/bf02596627 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
A Comparison of Decision Analysis and Second Opinions for Surgical Decisions
Clarke, J. R. (1985) · Archives of Surgery · doi:10.1001/archsurg.1985.01390310080018 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Predictive efficiency of two multivariate statistical techniques in comparison with clinical predictions.
Alexakos, C. E. (1966) · Journal of Educational Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0023729 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Unsuccessful differential diagnosis from the Rorschach.
Armitage, S. G., & Pearl, D. L. (1957) · Journal of Consulting Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0040741 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
SUICIDE PREDICTION FOR PSYCHIATRIC PATIENTS: A COMPARISON OF THE MMPI AND CLINICAL JUDGMENTS
Lemerond, J. N. (1977) · e-Publications@Marquette (Marquette University) · Cited by 7 · see citing works
A Test of a Linear Discriminant for Identifying Low-Risk Abdominal Pain
Orient, J. M., Kettel, L. J., & Lim, J. (1985) · Medical Decision Making · doi:10.1177/0272989x8500500116 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Diagnosis of Schizophrenia by Rorschach Patterns
Klinger, E., & Roth, I. (1965) · Journal of Projective Techniques and Personality Assessment · doi:10.1080/0091651x.1965.10120216 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
A modified actuarial method in the selection of medical students
Schofield, W. (1970) · Academic Medicine · doi:10.1097/00001888-197010000-00004 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Physicians' Diagnoses Compared with Aiaorithmic Differentiation of Causes of Jaundice
Boom, R. A., Chavez-Oest, J., González, C. N., Cantú, M. A. Q., Rivero, F., Reyes, A. S., Aguilar, E., & Santamaria, J. (1988) · Medical Decision Making · doi:10.1177/0272989x8800800305 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Predicting occupational choice by clinical and statistical methods.
Webb, S. C., Hultgen, D. D., & Craddick, R. A. (1977) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-0167.24.2.98 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
COMPUTER-ASSISTED DIAGNOSIS OF ACUTE ABDOMINAL PAIN IN CHILDHOOD
Dickson, J. A. S. (1985) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(85)91813-6 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Predicting the Adjustment of Federal Probationers
Gläser, D., & Hangren, R. F. (1958) · Crime & Delinquency · doi:10.1177/001112875800400307 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Predictive Validities of Clinical and Actuarial Scores of the Gesell Incomplete Man Test
Popovics, A. J. (1983) · Perceptual and Motor Skills · doi:10.2466/pms.1983.56.3.864 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Analysis of historical variables, risk factors and the resting electrocardiogram as an aid in the clinical diagnosis of recurrent chest pain
Joswig, B. C., Glover, M. U., Nelson, D. P., et al. (1985) · Computers in Biology and Medicine · doi:10.1016/0010-4825(85)90019-8 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The accuracy of radiological and computer diagnoses in small bowel examinations in children
Jeans, W. D., & Morris, A. F. (1976) · British Journal of Radiology · doi:10.1259/0007-1285-49-584-665 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Applying descriptive discriminant analysis as a visual aid for physicians interpreting biochemical test results
Durbridge, T. C. (1984) · Clinical Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/s0009-9120(84)90649-0 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Ego impairment in schizophrenia as reflected in the Object Sorting Test.
Silverman, L. H., & Silverman, D. K. (1962) · Journal of Abnormal & Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0044023 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
The comparative cost-effectiveness of statistical decision rules and experienced physicians in pharyngitis management
Cebul, R. (1986) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.256.24.3353 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Some Behavioural Aspects of Information Use in Decision Making: A Study of Clinical Judgements
Schwartz, S. L., Vertinsky, I. B., Ziemba, W. T., et al. (1976) · Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-87563-2_28 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Using computers to make judgments: Correlations among predictors and the comparison of linear and configural rules
Garb, H. N. (1995) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/0747-5632(94)00038-j · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Selection of College Scholarship Students: Statistical vs. Clinical Methods
Rosen, N. A., & HORN, J. W. V. (1961) · The Personnel and Guidance Journal · doi:10.1002/j.2164-4918.1961.tb02417.x · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Predicting occupational choice by clinical and statistical methods.
Webb, S. C., Hultgen, D. D., & Craddick, R. A. (1977) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-0167.24.2.98 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Actuarial prediction of performance in a six-year A.B.-M.D. program
Hess, T. G., & Brown, D. R. (1977) · Academic Medicine · doi:10.1097/00001888-197701000-00011 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
A computer program for the diagnosis of hematologic disorders
Reich, P. R., Geer, D. E., & Bleich, H. L. (1977) · American Journal of Hematology · doi:10.1002/ajh.2830030203 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Comparison of the Performance of a Computer Compared to the Effectivity of a Physicians Analysis of Infarction ECGs
Enenkel, W., & Spiel, R. (2015) · Advances in cardiology · doi:10.1159/000398405 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Roentgenology of the colon.
Bd, B., Heydemann, J., & De, Z. (1961) · PubMed · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The Entertainers
Jarvie, I. C. (1962) · Film Quarterly · doi:10.2307/1211199 · Cited by 1 · see citing works

Flagged first, then by citations

Sorted by citations

Algorithm aversion: People erroneously avoid algorithms after seeing them err.
Dietvorst, B. J., Simmons, J. P., & Massey, C. (2015) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: General · doi:10.1037/xge0000033 · Cited by 3,232 · see citing works
Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree.
Kahneman, D., & Klein, G. (2009) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/a0016755 · Cited by 2,443 · see citing works
Fair prediction with disparate impact: a study of bias in recidivism prediction instruments
Chouldechova, A. (2017) · Big Data · doi:10.1089/big.2016.0047 · Cited by 2,159 · see citing works
Algorithm appreciation: People prefer algorithmic to human judgment
Logg, J. M., Minson, J. A., & Moore, D. A. (2019) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2018.12.005 · Cited by 2,061 · see citing works
Resistance to Medical Artificial Intelligence
Longoni, C., Bonezzi, A., & Morewedge, C. K. (2019) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1093/jcr/ucz013 · Cited by 2,015 · see citing works
Rehabilitating criminal justice policy and practice
Andrews, D. A., & Bonta, J. (2010) · Psychology, Public Policy, and Law · doi:10.1037/a0018362 · Cited by 1,223 · see citing works
Overcoming Algorithm Aversion: People Will Use Imperfect Algorithms If They Can (Even Slightly) Modify Them
Dietvorst, B. J., Simmons, J. P., & Massey, C. (2018) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2016.2643 · Cited by 1,230 · see citing works
“…of recidivism (Thompson, 1952; Wormith & Goldstone, 1984), medical diagnoses (Adams et al., 1986; Beck et al., 2011; Dawes, Faust, & Meehl, 1989; Grove et al., 2000), demand for products (Schweitzer & Cachon, 2000), and so on (for reviews see Dawes et al., 1989; Grove et al., 2000; Meehl, 1954).”
Background
Premature discontinuation in adult psychotherapy: A meta-analysis
Swift, J. K., & Greenberg, R. P. (2012) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0028226 · Cited by 978 · see citing works
Human Decisions and Machine Predictions
Kleinberg, J., Lakkaraju, H., Leskovec, J., Ludwig, J., & Mullainathan, S. (2018) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjx032 · Cited by 1,040 · see citing works
The meta-analysis of clinical judgment project: fifty-six years of accumulated research on clinical versus statistical prediction
Ægisdóttir, S., White, M. J., Spengler, P. M., Maugherman, A. S., Anderson, L. A., Cook, R. S., Nichols, C. N., Lampropoulos, G. K., Walker, B. S., Cohen, G., et al. (2006) · The Counseling Psychologist · doi:10.1177/0011000005285875 · Cited by 737 · see citing works
Manipulating and Measuring Model Interpretability
Poursabzi-Sangdeh, F., Goldstein, D. G., Hofman, J. M., Wortman Vaughan, J. W., & Wallach, H. (2021) · Proceedings of the 2021 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems · doi:10.1145/3411764.3445315 · Cited by 728 · see citing works
Implementing Measurement-Based Care in Behavioral Health: A Review
Lewis, C. C., Boyd, M., Puspitasari, A., Navarro, E., Howard, J., Kassab, H., Hoffman, M., Scott, K., Lyon, A., Douglas, S., et al. (2019) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2018.3329 · Cited by 605 · see citing works
The Risk Principle in Action: What Have We Learned From 13,676 Offenders and 97 Correctional Programs?
Lowenkamp, C. T., Latessa, E. J., & Holsinger, A. M. (2006) · Crime & Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0011128705281747 · Cited by 473 · see citing works
Making sense of recommendations
Yeomans, M., Shah, A., Mullainathan, S., & Kleinberg, J. (2019) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.2118 · Cited by 459 · see citing works
Predicting Suicides After Psychiatric Hospitalization in US Army Soldiers: The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)
Kessler, R. C., Warner, C. H., Ivany, C., Petukhova, M. V., Rose, S., Bromet, E. J., Brown, M., Cai, T., Colpe, L. J., Cox, K. L., et al. (2015) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2014.1754 · Cited by 447 · see citing works
Treatment selection in depression.
Cohen, Z. D., & DeRubeis, R. J. (2018) · Annual Review of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-050817-084746 · Cited by 435 · see citing works
Patient predictors of alcohol treatment outcome: A systematic review
Adamson, S. J., Sellman, J. D., & Frampton, C. M. A. (2009) · Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment · doi:10.1016/j.jsat.2008.05.007 · Cited by 370 · see citing works
Predicting suicidal behavior from longitudinal electronic health records.
Barak-Corren, Y., Castro, V. M., Javitt, S., Hoffnagle, A. G., Dai, Y., Perlis, R. H., Nock, M. K., Smoller, J. W., & Reis, B. Y. (2017) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2016.16010077 · Cited by 339 · see citing works
Why many clinical psychologists are resistant to evidence-based practice: Root causes and constructive remedies
Lilienfeld, S. O., Ritschel, L. A., Lynn, S. J., Cautin, R. L., & Latzman, R. D. (2013) · Clinical Psychology Review · doi:10.1016/j.cpr.2012.09.008 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
The future of artificial intelligence at work: A review on effects of decision automation and augmentation on workers targeted by algorithms and third-party observers
Langer, M., & Landers, R. N. (2021) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.chb.2021.106878 · Cited by 338 · see citing works
Practitioner review: Computerized assessment of neuropsychological function in children: Clinical and research applications of the Cambridge Neuropsychological Testing Automated Battery (CANTAB).
Luciana, M. (2003) · Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/1469-7610.00152 · Cited by 289 · see citing works
Human-machine collaboration in managerial decision making
Haesevoets, T., De Cremer, D., Dierckx, K., & Van Hiel, A. (2021) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.chb.2021.106730 · Cited by 280 · see citing works
Therapist drift redux: Why well-meaning clinicians fail to deliver evidence-based therapy, and how to get back on track
Waller, G., & Turner, H. (2016) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2015.12.005 · Cited by 256 · see citing works
The Bipolar Prodrome: Meta-Analysis of Symptom Prevalence Prior to Initial or Recurrent Mood Episodes
Van Meter, A. R., Burke, C., Youngstrom, E. A., Faedda, G. L., & Correll, C. U. (2016) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2016.04.017 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Predicting suicides after outpatient mental health visits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)
Kessler, R. C., Stein, M. B., Petukhova, M. V., Bliese, P., Bossarte, R. M., Bromet, E. J., Fullerton, C. S., Gilman, S. E., Ivany, C., Lewandowski-Romps, L., et al. (2017) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/mp.2016.110 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
Layers of bias: A unified approach for understanding problems with risk assessment
Eckhouse, L., Lum, K., Conti-Cook, C., & Ciccolini, J. (2019) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/0093854818811379 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Risk assessment and decision making in child protective services: Predictive risk modeling in context
Cuccaro-Alamin, S., Foust, R., Vaithianathan, R., & Putnam-Hornstein, E. (2017) · Children and Youth Services Review · doi:10.1016/j.childyouth.2017.06.027 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Psychological testing and psychological assessment: A review of evidence and issues.
Meyer, G. J., Finn, S. E., Eyde, L. D., Kay, G. G., Moreland, K. L., Dies, R. R., Eisman, E. J., Kubiszyn, T. W., & Reed, G. M. (2001) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037//0003-066x.56.2.128 · Cited by 1,469 · see citing works
What People Want From Their Professionals: Attitudes Toward Decision‐making Strategies
Eastwood, J., Snook, B., & Luther, K. (2012) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.741 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
The therapeutic role of emotion regulation and coping strategies during a stand-alone DBT Skills training program for alcohol use disorder and concurrent substance use disorders
Cavicchioli, M., Movalli, M., Vassena, G., Ramella, P., Prudenziati, F., & Maffei, C. (2019) · Addictive Behaviors · doi:10.1016/j.addbeh.2019.106035 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Treatment protocols for eating disorders: Clinicians’ attitudes, concerns, adherence and difficulties delivering evidence-based psychological interventions
Waller, G. (2016) · Current Psychiatry Reports · doi:10.1007/s11920-016-0679-0 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Predicting domestic violence: A meta-analysis on the predictive validity of risk assessment tools
van der Put, C. E., Gubbels, J., & Assink, M. (2019) · Aggression and Violent Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.avb.2019.03.008 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Psychotherapies provided for eating disorders by community clinicians: infrequent use of evidence-based treatment
Von Ranson, K. M., Wallace, L. M., & Stevenson, A. (2013) · Psychotherapy Research · doi:10.1080/10503307.2012.735377 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Anesthesiologists’ Overconfidence in Their Perceived Knowledge of Neuromuscular Monitoring and Its Relevance to All Aspects of Medical Practice: An International Survey
Naguib, M., Brull, S. J., Hunter, J. M., Kopman, A. F., Fülesdi, B., Johnson, K. B., & Arkes, H. R. (2019) · Anesthesia & Analgesia · doi:10.1213/ane.0000000000003714 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
The gap between science and practice: how therapists make their clinical decisions
Gyani, A., Shafran, R., Myles, P., & Rose, S. (2014) · Behavior Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.beth.2013.10.004 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Confirmation bias in AI-assisted decision-making: AI triage recommendations congruent with expert judgments increase psychologist trust and recommendation acceptance
Bashkirova, A., & Krpan, D. (2024) · Computers in Human Behavior: Artificial Humans · doi:10.1016/j.chbah.2024.100066 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
How consistent are clinical significance classifications when calculation methods and outcome measures differ?
Ronk, F. R., Hooke, G. R., & Page, A. C. (2012) · Clinical Psychology Science and Practice · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2850.2012.01281.x · Cited by 47 · see citing works
To deliver or not to deliver cognitive behavioral therapy for eating disorders: Replication and extension of our understanding of why therapists fail to do what they should do
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Authors: Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. E., & Nelson, C.
Affiliations: University of Minnesota (US)
ORCID: Zald, David H.
Snitz, Beth E.
Venue: Psychological Assessment
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 2000
Volume: 12
Issue: 1
Pages: 19-30
ISSN: 1040-3590 (ISSN-L)
1939-134X
DOI: 10.1037/1040-3590.12.1.19
OpenAlex: W2168729696
Cited by: 1,640
References: 183
Citations by year: 2026: 38 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 63 · 2023: 76 · 2022: 79 · 2021: 114 · 2020: 101 · 2019: 67 · 2018: 82 · 2017: 84 · 2016: 73 · 2015: 84 · 2014: 92 · 2013: 81 · 2012: 64
FWCI: 6.60
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Psychological Assessment (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Keywords: clinical prediction, prediction accuracy, data combination, judgment and decision making, human behavior prediction
MeSH terms: Decision Making, Computer-Assisted, Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted, Humans, Mathematical Computing, Reproducibility of Results

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Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis

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