Correlates of protection against symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
Open accessAbstract
The global supply of COVID-19 vaccines remains limited. An understanding of the immune response that is predictive of protection could facilitate rapid licensure of new vaccines. Data from a randomized efficacy trial of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in the United Kingdom was analyzed to determine the antibody levels associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2. Binding and neutralizing antibodies at 28 days after the second dose were measured in infected and noninfected vaccine recipients. Higher levels of all immune markers were correlated with a reduced risk of symptomatic infection. A vaccine efficacy of 80% against symptomatic infection with majority Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 was achieved with 264 (95% CI: 108, 806) binding antibody units (BAU)/ml: and 506 (95% CI: 135, not computed (beyond data range) (NC)) BAU/ml for anti-spike and anti-RBD antibodies, and 26 (95% CI: NC, NC) international unit (IU)/ml and 247 (95% CI: 101, NC) normalized neutralization titers (NF 50) for pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization, respectively. Immune markers were not correlated with asymptomatic infections at the 5% significance level. These data can be used to bridge to new populations using validated assays, and allow extrapolation of efficacy estimates to new COVID-19 vaccines.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In the UK COV002 trial, higher anti-spike IgG, anti-RBD IgG, pseudovirus neutralizing, and live-virus neutralizing antibody levels at 28 days after a second ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 dose were associated with lower risk of symptomatic COVID-19, but not asymptomatic infection. Antibody values corresponding to 80% vaccine efficacy against primary symptomatic COVID-19 were 264 BAU/ml for anti-spike IgG, 506 BAU/ml for anti-RBD IgG, 26 IU/ml for pseudovirus neutralization, and 247 NF50 for live-virus neutralization.
Key findings
- Among 4,372 participants in the correlates population, there were 174 breakthrough NAAT+ SARS-CoV-2 infections; correlates analysis included 171 cases and 1,404 noncases with at least one assay readout. Risk of symptomatic COVID-19 decreased with increasing anti-spike IgG (P = 0.003), anti-RBD IgG (P = 0.018), pseudovirus neutralization titer (P = 0.005), and live-virus neutralization titer (P < 0.001).
- The antibody level associated with 80% VE against primary symptomatic COVID-19 was 40,923 AU/ml anti-spike IgG, equivalent to 264 BAU/ml (95% CI: 108, 806); 506 BAU/ml anti-RBD IgG (95% CI: 135, NC); 26 IU/ml pseudovirus neutralization (95% CI: NC, NC); and 247 NF50 live-virus neutralization (95% CI: 101, NC).
- No significant associations were found between any assay and protection against asymptomatic infection, including in sensitivity analysis restricting to high viral load (all P > 0.05).
- For symptomatic cases with shortness of breath, 80% VE was achieved at lower immune marker levels than for symptomatic cases in general; no significant associations were observed for symptomatic cases without shortness of breath (all P > 0.05).
Methods
- Data came from COV002, a phase 2/3 randomized single-blind vaccine efficacy trial across 19 UK sites; participants were randomized to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or MenACWY control. The correlates population included baseline SARS-CoV-2 N-protein-seronegative participants with a PB28 visit within 14–42 days after the second dose and follow-up to at least 7 days after PB28; the correlates cohort comprised those with biomarker data.
- Immune markers measured at PB28 were anti-spike IgG, anti-RBD IgG, pseudovirus neutralization, and live-virus neutralization, converted to WHO international standard units. Outcomes were primary symptomatic COVID-19 (NAAT+ with at least one qualifying symptom) and asymptomatic infection (NAAT+ on weekly self-swab with no symptoms).
- Log-transformed immune markers were analyzed with generalized additive models for binary outcomes using cubic spline smooths, adjusted for baseline exposure risk and weighted by inverse probability weights for sample availability. Correlates of VE were derived by comparing predicted absolute risk with the MenACWY control population risk; 95% CIs used 10,000 bootstrap samples.
Limitations
- Stated: analyses were based on a mainly white UK population with cases mostly due to B.1.177 and B.1.1.7 variants, so modeled relationships may not apply where other variants dominate or different neutralization strains are used. Many analyses were conducted and P values are unadjusted for multiple comparisons. Results apply to two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and may not apply to a single dose or other COVID-19 vaccines. Age profile was not explored due to few older adults; T cells and humoral–cellular interactions were not evaluated; mechanistic versus nonmechanistic correlates could not be determined. No vaccinated participants were hospitalized, so correlates against severe disease or hospitalization could not be assessed. Wide CIs around estimates should be noted, and no single threshold indicated sterilizing immunity.
- Evident from the text: the correlates relate to protection against mild disease, defined as NAAT+ with at least one symptom, during the subsequent 4- to 6-month period, and represent antibody levels at 28 days after a second dose rather than at the time of exposure.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Claims the paper makes
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- Findingown data
Higher pseudovirus neutralization titer is associated with lower risk of symptomatic COVID-19.
“The risk of symptomatic COVID-19 decreased with increasing levels of anti-spike IgG (P = 0.003), anti-RBD IgG (P = 0.018), pseudovirus neutralization titer (P = 0.005), and live-virus neutralization titer (P < 0.001)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Higher anti-spike IgG levels are associated with lower risk of symptomatic COVID-19.
“The risk of symptomatic COVID-19 decreased with increasing levels of anti-spike IgG (P = 0.003)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Higher live-virus neutralization titer is associated with lower risk of symptomatic COVID-19.
“The risk of symptomatic COVID-19 decreased with increasing levels of anti-spike IgG (P = 0.003), anti-RBD IgG (P = 0.018), pseudovirus neutralization titer (P = 0.005), and live-virus neutralization titer (P < 0.001)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Higher anti-RBD IgG levels are associated with lower risk of symptomatic COVID-19.
“The risk of symptomatic COVID-19 decreased with increasing levels of anti-spike IgG (P = 0.003), anti-RBD IgG (P = 0.018), pseudovirus neutralization titer (P = 0.005), and live-virus neutralization titer (P < 0.001)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
Not all participants with results from the pseudovirus neutralization titer also have results from the anti-spike, anti-RBD, and live neutralizing antibody titers.
“Not all participants with results from the pseudovirus neutralization titer also have results from the anti-spike, anti-RBD, and live neutralizing antibody titers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
Non-normalized live-virus neutralization titers (ND50) were less highly correlated with anti-spike IgG (r = 0.411).
“Non-normalized live-virus neutralization titers (ND 50 ) were less highly correlated with anti-spike IgG (r = 0.411) and pseudovirus neutralization titers (r = 0.305).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For anti-RBD IgG, 80% efficacy was achieved with a median antibody level of 506 BAU/ml (95% CI 135, NC).
“For anti-RBD IgG, 80% efficacy was achieved with median antibody level of 506 (95% CI: 135, not computed (NC)) BAU/ml”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For pseudovirus neutralizing antibody, 26 IU/ml (95% CI NC, NC) was associated with 80% VE against symptomatic infection.
“For pseudovirus and live-virus neutralizing antibody titers, values of 26 (95% CI: NC, NC) IU/ml and 247 (95% CI: 101, NC) normalized neutralization titers (NF 50 ), respectively, were associated with 80% VE against symptomatic infection”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
No values from the pseudovirus or live-virus neutralization assays were associated with protection against asymptomatic infection.
“No values from these assays were associated with protection against asymptomatic infection (Supplementary Table 4)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There is no single threshold value for any of the assays investigated that was indicative of sterilizing immunity in the data.
“the results presented here show that there is no single threshold value for any of the assays investigated that was indicative of sterilizing immunity in our data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Anti-spike IgG and anti-RBD IgG were highly correlated with each other (Pearson r = 0.926).
“Anti-spike IgG and anti-RBD IgG were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.926)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
There were no significant associations between any of the four assays and protection against asymptomatic infection, including in sensitivity analysis restricting to high viral load.
“In contrast, there were no significant associations between any of the assays and protection against asymptomatic infection including for sensitivity analysis restricting to high viral load (all P > 0.05, Fig. 3, Extended Data Figs.4, and 5, and Supplementary Table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For live-virus neutralizing antibody, 247 NF50 (95% CI 101, NC) was associated with 80% VE against symptomatic infection.
“For pseudovirus and live-virus neutralizing antibody titers, values of 26 (95% CI: NC, NC) IU/ml and 247 (95% CI: 101, NC) normalized neutralization titers (NF 50 ), respectively, were associated with 80% VE against symptomatic infection”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Anti-spike IgG values were correlated with pseudovirus neutralization titers (r = 0.657).
“Anti-spike IgG values were also correlated with pseudovirus neutralization titers (r = 0.657) and normalized live-virus neutralization titers (NF 50 ) (r = 0.600) (Extended Data Fig. 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The distribution of baseline risk was similar for cases and noncases.
“The distribution of baseline risk was similar for cases and noncases (Table 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Non-normalized live-virus neutralization titers (ND50) were less highly correlated with pseudovirus neutralization titers (r = 0.305).
“Non-normalized live-virus neutralization titers (ND 50 ) were less highly correlated with anti-spike IgG (r = 0.411) and pseudovirus neutralization titers (r = 0.305).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
For all assays, when the analysis was restricted to symptomatic cases with shortness of breath, 80% VE was achieved at lower levels of immune markers than for symptomatic cases in general.
“For all assays, when the analysis was restricted to symptomatic cases with shortness of breath, 80% VE was achieved at lower levels of immune markers than for symptomatic cases in general.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
The live-virus assay was more closely associated with protection against symptomatic COVID-19 than was the pseudovirus assay.
“Although live-virus and pseudovirus neutralization assays were modestly correlated with each other, the live-virus assay was more closely associated with protection against symptomatic COVID-19 than was the pseudovirus assay.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Anti-spike IgG values were correlated with normalized live-virus neutralization titers (NF50) (r = 0.600).
“Anti-spike IgG values were also correlated with pseudovirus neutralization titers (r = 0.657) and normalized live-virus neutralization titers (NF 50 ) (r = 0.600) (Extended Data Fig. 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Higher baseline exposure risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection predicts higher probability of all outcomes except asymptomatic infections.
“Higher baseline exposure risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections predict higher probability of all outcomes (all P < 0.05, Table 2 and Supplementary Table 4), except for asymptomatic infections (P > 0.05) in generalized additive models.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline exposure risk predicted from the MenACWY control population is applicable to the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 correlates cohort.
- Findingown data
The anti-spike IgG level associated with 80% VE against primary symptomatic COVID-19 was 40,923 AU/ml (95% CI 16,748-125,017), equivalent to 264 BAU/ml (95% CI 108-806).
“The antibody level associated with 80% VE against primary symptomatic COVID-19 was 40,923 (95% CI: 16,748, 125,017) arbitrary units (AU)/ml for anti-spike IgG, equivalent to 264 BAU/ml (95% CI: 108, 806) using the WHO international standard (NIBSC code 20/136).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Pseudovirus neutralization titer and normalized live-virus neutralization titer (NF50) were moderately correlated (r = 0.572).
“while the correlation between pseudovirus neutralization titer and normalized live-virus neutralization titer (NF 50 ) was moderate (r = 0.572).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Approximately 10% of the pseudovirus neutralization antibody titers were below the LLOQ.
“Approximately 10% of the pseudovirus neutralization antibody titers were below the LLOQ.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among 4,372 participants in the correlates population, there were 174 breakthrough NAAT+ cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
“Among 4,372 participants in the correlates population, there were a total of 174 breakthrough NAAT+ cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
It is not possible to determine in this study whether the results represent mechanistic or nonmechanistic correlates of protection, as many immune responses are highly correlated.
“It is not possible to determine in this study if our results represent mechanistic or nonmechanistic correlates of protection, as many immune responses are highly correlated.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
In settings where B.1.177/B.1.1.7 are not the dominant variants, or where neutralization assays use different strains, the modeled relationships between immune markers and disease outcomes may not apply.
“In settings in which these are not the dominant variants causing disease, or where neutralization assays use different strains of the virus, the modeled relationships between immune markers and disease outcomes shown here may not apply.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Studies have shown that imputing LLOQ / 2 can lead to bias and CIs with poor coverage when a substantial proportion of the data are censored.
“Studies have shown that imputing LLOQ / 2 can lead to bias and CIs with poor coverage when a substantial proportion of the data are censored [41][42][43] .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [41][42][43]
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductreasoning
Inverse probability weighting was used to weight the correlates of risk models for each immune marker to remove bias from missing immune marker data.
“The inverse probability from this model was used to weight the correlates of risk models for each immune marker to remove this source of bias (Supplementary Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The mechanism of missingness for samples that were not tested is missing at random.
- Premisecitation
Clinical trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have consistently shown higher efficacy against more severe forms of disease than against mild infections.
“Clinical trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have consistently shown higher efficacy against more severe forms of disease, such as those causing hospitalization or death, than against mild infections [2][3][4][5]15,31 .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [2][3][4][5]15,31
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
The correlates of vaccine efficacy reported here could be used to extrapolate efficacy to immunogenicity data for novel vaccines where clinical efficacy results are unavailable.
“The correlates of vaccine efficacy reported here could be used to extrapolate efficacy to immunogenicity data for novel vaccines where clinical efficacy results are unavailable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: No study to date has defined a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection or disease that can be used by regulators and vaccine developers.
- Interpretationreasoning
Correlates of protection can be used to bridge to new populations and new vaccines using validated assays.
“Correlates of protection can be used to bridge to new populations and new vaccines using validated assays.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: No study to date has defined a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection or disease that can be used by regulators and vaccine developers.
- Study design and conductown data
The study was unable to assess correlates of protection against severe disease or hospitalization because there were no vaccinated participants hospitalized in COV002.
“We are unable to assess correlates of protection against severe disease or hospitalization as there were no vaccinated participants hospitalized in the COV002 study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 10
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 23
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the baseline exposure model developed among the MenACWY control group, younger age and being a healthcare worker facing more than one patient with COVID-19 per day were associated with higher risk of being NAAT+.
“In our baseline exposure model developed among the MenACWY control group, younger age and being a healthcare worker facing more than one patient with COVID-19 per day were associated with a higher risk of being NAAT+.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingown dataVaccine efficacy against primary symptomatic COVID-19 was modeled as a function of immune markers measured at PB28.
“VE against primary symptomatic COVID-19 as a function of immune markers measured at PB28.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingown dataThe predicted absolute risk of primary symptomatic COVID-19 was modeled as a function of immune markers measured at PB28 using generalized additive regression.
“Predicted absolute risk of primary symptomatic COVID-19 as a function of immune markers measured at PB28 by generalized additive regression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingown dataData were available for at least one of four assay readouts for 171/174 (98.3%) cases and 1,404/4,195 (33.5%) noncases.
“Data were available for at least one of four assay readouts (anti-spike IgG, anti-receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG, pseudovirus neutralization assay, and live-virus neutralization) for 171 out of 174 (98.3%) cases and 1,404 out of 4,195 (33.5%) noncases.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataPeople in the case group were younger, with 84.2% aged 18-55 years compared with 71.6% of noncases.
“People in the case group were younger, with 84.2% being aged 18-55 years, compared with 71.6% of the noncase group”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataPeople in the case group were more likely to be healthcare workers (62.0% vs 57.5% of noncases).
“and were more likely to be healthcare workers (62.0% were healthcare workers compared with 57.5% of the noncase group, Table 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingown dataThe relative risk of primary symptomatic COVID-19 among vaccine recipients compared with MenACWY control arm participants was modeled as a function of immune markers measured at PB28.
“Relative risk of primary symptomatic COVID-19 among vaccine recipients compared with MenACWY control arm participants as a function of immune markers measured at PB28.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingown dataThe relative risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection among vaccine recipients compared with the MenACWY control arm participants was modeled as a function of immune markers measured at PB28.
“Relative risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection among vaccine recipients compared with the MenACWY control arm participants as a function of immune markers measured at PB28.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningA sensitivity analysis was conducted excluding cases with lower viral loads (CT ≥ 30) to account for potential misclassification in asymptomatic infections.
“To account for potential of misclassification in asymptomatic infections, a sensitivity analysis was conducted excluding cases with lower viral loads (defined as those for whom all returned PCR positive tests had a CT value ≥ 30), as these are potential false positives.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningReduced neutralizing capacity against B.1.351 and other variants of concern might drive reduced protection against initial infection, and perhaps transmission, but protection against severe disease is maintained.
“These observations indicate that the reduced neutralizing capacity against B.1.351and other variants of concern, might drive reduced protection against initial infection, and perhaps transmission, but protection against severe disease is maintained.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataA sensitivity analysis showed absolute and relative risk of primary symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection with 3 or more COVID-19 symptoms as a function of immune markers measured at day 28 post-second dose.
“Sensitivity analysis showing absolute and relative risk primary symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection with 3 or more COVID-19 symptoms as a function of immune markers measured at day 28 post-second dose.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationA sensitivity analysis was performed to account for the potential bias caused by imputing LLOQ / 2.
“We performed a sensitivity analysis to account for the potential bias caused by imputing LLOQ / 2.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataCorrelates may vary according to age profile, but this was not explored in the study due to the small number of older adults recruited.
“Correlates may also vary according to age profile, but this was not explored in our study due to the small number of older adults recruited.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataA sensitivity analysis showed absolute and relative risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection as a function of immune markers measured at 28 days post second dose excluding cases with low viral load (Ct ≥ 30).
“Sensitivity analysis showing absolute and relative risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection as a function of immune markers measured at 28 days post second dose excluding cases with low viral load (Ct ≥ 30).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataA sensitivity analysis showed absolute and relative risk of primary symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in participants with no symptoms of shortness of breath as a function of immune markers measured at day 28 post-second dose.
“Sensitivity analysis showing absolute and relative risk of primary symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in participants with no symptoms of shortness of breath as a function of immune markers measured at day 28 post-second dose.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataA sensitivity analysis showed absolute and relative risk of primary symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in participants with symptoms of shortness of breath as a function of immune markers measured at day 28 post-second dose.
“Sensitivity analysis showing absolute and relative risk of primary symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in participants with symptoms of shortness of breath as a function of immune markers measured at day 28 post-second dose.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningA trial of a new vaccine that works through similar immune mechanisms and produces antibody responses above the correlate values in at least 50% of participants might be expected to have similar efficacy against the clinical endpoints used in the UK trial, and higher efficacy against more severe endpoints.
“A trial of a new vaccine that works through similar immune mechanisms and which produces antibody responses that are above the correlate values reported here in at least 50% of participants (that is, it has a similar or higher median), might be expected to have similar efficacy against the clinical endpoints used in our UK trial, and higher efficacy against more severe endpoints.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: No study to date has defined a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection or disease that can be used by regulators and vaccine developers.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe probability of infection decreases on average with higher immune responses, but substantial variation exists between individuals.
“Instead, the probability of infection decreases on average with higher immune responses, but substantial variation exists between individuals.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataThe CoR was estimated by GAM adjusting for baseline risk exposure and weighting by inverse probability weights.
“We then estimated the CoR by GAM, adjusting for the baseline risk exposure and weighting by inverse probability weights.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationChAdOx1 nCoV-19-vaccinated hamsters with low neutralizing titers against B.1.351 were fully protected against LRTI following challenge with B.1.351, despite no evidence of protection against shedding of virus from the upper airway.
“Similarly, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19-vaccinated hamsters, with low neutralizing titers against B.1.351,were fully protected against LRTI following challenge with B.1.351,despite no evidence of protection against shedding of virus from the upper airway 29 .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] Fischer, R. J., et al. ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) protects hamsters against SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 and B.1.1.7 disease. Nature Comm. (in the press).
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe logit-transformed predicted baseline exposure risk was included as a linear covariate in the GAM model.
“The logit-transformed predicted baseline exposure risk was included as a linear covariate in the GAM model.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline exposure risk predicted from the MenACWY control population is applicable to the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 correlates cohort.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationProtection against upper respiratory tract or asymptomatic infections may be more closely associated with the presence of secretory IgA on the mucosal surface, which was not measured in this study.
“Protection against upper respiratory tract or asymptomatic infections may be more closely associated with the presence of secretory IgA on the mucosal surface which was not measured in this study 30 .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [30] Wang, Z. et al. Enhanced SARS-CoV-2 neutralization by dimeric IgA. Sci. Transl. Med. 13, eabf1555 (2021). source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenSamples were tested blinded to case status.
“Samples were tested blinded to case status.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationProtection against lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) may be easier to achieve than against upper respiratory tract infection (URTI).
“It has previously been shown that protection against lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) may be easier to achieve than against upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), as challenge studies in rhesus macaques have shown stronger correlation between neutralizing titers and the level of subgenomic messenger RNA in bronchoalveolar lavage samples than in nasal swab samples 28 .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [28] van Doremalen, N. et al. ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine prevents SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in rhesus macaques. Nature 586, 578–582 (2020). source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe analyses are based on cases of COVID-19 detected in a mainly white population in the United Kingdom, mostly due to B.1.177 and B.1.1.7 variants.
“These analyses are based on cases of COVID-19 detected in a mainly white population in the United Kingdom, which were mostly due to B.1.177and B.1.1.7 variants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe study was a phase 2/3 randomized single-blind vaccine efficacy trial conducted across 19 sites in the United Kingdom.
“The data included in this analysis comes from participants enrolled in COV002 (registration NCT04400838), a phase 2/3 randomized single-blind vaccine efficacy trial conducted across 19 sites in the United Kingdom.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataInverse probability weights were calculated for each bootstrap sample to account for sampling bias.
“For each bootstrap sample, we calculated the inverse probability weights to account for sampling bias.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationBrand et al. found single imputation embedded inside a bootstrap showed better statistical properties than other methods when a bootstrap is required for missing data.
“When a bootstrap is required for missing data, Brand et al. found single imputation embedded inside a bootstrap showed better statistical properties than other methods 43 .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [43] Brand, J., van Buuren, S., le Cessie, S. & van den Hout, W. Combining multiple imputation and bootstrap in the analysis of cost‐effectiveness trial data. Stat. Med. 38, 210–220 (2019). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenAll endpoints were evaluated by a blinded independent clinical review committee.
“All endpoints were evaluated by a blinded independent clinical review committee.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningThese data can be used to extrapolate efficacy estimates for new vaccines that use similar immune mechanisms and where efficacy data are unavailable.
“These data can be used to extrapolate efficacy estimates for new vaccines that use similar immune mechanisms and where efficacy data is unavailable.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: No study to date has defined a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection or disease that can be used by regulators and vaccine developers.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe analyses were conducted on samples taken after two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and might not apply to protection afforded by a single dose of the same vaccine or other COVID-19 vaccines.
“Furthermore, these analyses have been conducted on samples taken after two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and might not apply to protection afforded by a single dose of the same vaccine or other COVID-19 vaccines.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
The mechanism of missingness for samples that were not tested is missing at random.
“We assume the mechanism of missingness for samples that were not tested to be missing at random 39 .”
The paper relies on this without support.
No study to date has defined a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection or disease that can be used by regulators and vaccine developers.
“Nevertheless, no study to date has defined a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection or disease that can be used by regulators and vaccine developers.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Baseline exposure risk predicted from the MenACWY control population is applicable to the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 correlates cohort.
“The linear predictor from the risk model developed using the MenACWY control population was used to predict the baseline risk of exposure in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 correlates cohort.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The confidence ellipses for correlations assume a t-distribution.
“95% confidence ellipses assuming a t-distribution are shown for each outcome (primary symptomatic cases, asymptomatic cases and negative controls).”
Claims other papers make about this one
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Neutralizing antibody responses are believed to be critical for protection against COVID-19 by BNT vaccination.
“Neutralizing antibody responses are also believed to be critical for protection against COVID-19 by BNT vaccination”
From The Omicron variant is highly resistant against antibody-mediated neutralization: Implications for control of the COVID-19 pandemic (2022) · cites this paper as Feng et al., 2021
Cites
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- Authors
- Feng, S., Phillips, D. J., White, T., Sayal, H., Aley, P. K., Bibi, S., Dold, C., Fuskova, M., Gilbert, S. C., Hirsch, I., Humphries, H. E., Jepson, B., Kelly, E. J., Plested, E., Shoemaker, K., Thomas, K. M., Vekemans, J., Villafana, T. L., Lambe, T., Pollard, A. J., Voysey, M., the Oxford COVID Vaccine Trial Group, Adlou, S., Allen, L., Angus, B., Anslow, R., Asselin, M.-C., Baker, N., Baker, P., Barlow, T., Beveridge, A., Bewley, K. R., Brown, P., Brunt, E., Buttigieg, K. R., Camara, S., Charlton, S., Chiplin, E., Cicconi, P., Clutterbuck, E. A., Collins, A. M., Coombes, N. S., Clemens, S. A. C., Davison, M., Demissie, T., Dinesh, T., Douglas, A. D., Duncan, C. J. A., Emary, K. R. W., Ewer, K. J., Felle, S., Ferreira, D. M., Finn, A., Folegatti, P. M., Fothergill, R., Fraser, S., Garlant, H., Gatcombe, L., Godwin, K. J., Goodman, A. L., Green, C. A., Hallis, B., Hart, T. C., Heath, P. T., Hill, H., Hill, A. V. S., Jenkin, D., Kasanyinga, M., Kerridge, S., Knight, C., Leung, S., Libri, V., Lillie, P. J., Marinou, S., McGlashan, J., McGregor, A. C., McInroy, L., Minassian, A. M., Mujadidi, Y. F., Penn, E. J., Petropoulos, C. J., Pollock, K. M., Proud, P. C., Provstgaard-Morys, S., Rajapaska, D., Ramasamy, M. N., Sanders, K., Shaik, I., Singh, N., Smith, A., Snape, M. D., Song, R., Shrestha, S., Sutherland, R. K., Thomson, E. C., Turner, D. P. J., Webb-Bridges, A., Wrin, T., & Williams, C. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- AstraZeneca (United Kingdom) (GB)
- Public Health England (GB)
- AstraZeneca (United States) (US)
- AstraZeneca (Sweden) (SE)
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (GB)
- University of Siena (IT)
- Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- St Thomas' Hospital (GB)
- University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
- St George's, University of London (GB)
- University of Hull (GB)
- London North West Healthcare NHS Trust (GB)
- LabCorp (United States) (US)
- NHS Lothian (GB)
- Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust (GB)
- Aneurin Bevan University Health Board (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Voysey, Merryn
- ORCID
- Feng, Shuo
- Phillips, Daniel J.
- Aley, Parvinder K.
- Bibi, Sagida
- Dold, Christina
- Fuskova, Michelle
- Gilbert, Sarah C.
- Hirsch, Ian
- Humphries, Holly E.
- Jepson, Brett
- Kelly, Elizabeth J.
- Plested, Emma
- Thomas, Kelly M.
- Vekemans, Johan
- Villafana, Tonya L.
- Lambe, Teresa
- Pollard, Andrew J.
- Voysey, Merryn
- Allen, Lauren
- Angus, Brian
- Anslow, Rachel
- Asselin, Marie-Claude
- Baker, Natalie
- Baker, Philip
- Bewley, Kevin R.
- Brown, Phillip
- Buttigieg, Karen R.
- Camara, Susana
- Charlton, Sue
- Cicconi, Paola
- Clutterbuck, Elizabeth A.
- Collins, Andrea M.
- Coombes, Naomi S.
- Clemens, Sue Ann Costa
- Douglas, Alexander D.
- Duncan, Christopher J. A.
- Emary, Katherine R. W.
- Ewer, Katie J.
- Felle, Sally
- Ferreira, Daniela M.
- Finn, Adam
- Folegatti, Pedro M.
- Garlant, Harriet
- Goodman, Anna L.
- Green, Christopher A.
- Hallis, Bassam
- Hart, Thomas C.
- Heath, Paul T.
- Hill, Helen
- Hill, Adrian V. S.
- Jenkin, Daniel
- Kasanyinga, Mwila
- Kerridge, Simon
- Leung, Stephanie
- Libri, Vincenzo
- Lillie, Patrick J.
- Marinou, Spyridoula
- McGregor, Alastair C.
- Minassian, Angela M.
- Mujadidi, Yama F.
- Petropoulos, Christos J.
- Pollock, Katrina M.
- Proud, Pamela C.
- Provstgaard-Morys, Samuel
- Ramasamy, Maheshi N.
- Sanders, Katherine
- Smith, Andrew
- Snape, Matthew D.
- Song, Rinn
- Sutherland, Rebecca K.
- Thomson, Emma C.
- Turner, David P. J.
- Williams, Christopher J.
- Venue
- Nature Medicine
- Published
- 2021-09-29
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 2032-2040
- ISSN
- 1078-8956 (ISSN-L)
- 1546-170X
- PMC
- PMC8604724
- OpenAlex
- W3174017401
- Cited by
- 1,163
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 36 · 2025: 94 · 2024: 155 · 2023: 255 · 2022: 515 · 2021: 106 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 81.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- St George's Online Research Archive (St George's University of London) (acceptedVersion)
- LSTM Online Archive (Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
- Liverpool John Moores University (acceptedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- DH | National Institute for Health Research (NA)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Animal Science and Zoology › Animal Virus Infections Studies
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 vaccines, vaccine efficacy, binding antibodies, neutralizing antibodies, anti-spike antibodies, anti-RBD antibodies, pseudovirus neutralization, symptomatic infection, asymptomatic infection, Alpha variant, vaccine correlates of protection, vaccine licensure
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Antibodies, Viral, Female, United Kingdom, Humans, Immunization, Secondary, Male, Middle Aged, Vaccination, Cohort Studies, Treatment Outcome, Infection Control, Young Adult, Immunity, Humoral, Antibodies, Neutralizing, Asymptomatic Infections, Patient Acuity
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-06.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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