The relation between cesarean birth and child cognitive development
Open accessAbstract
This is the first detailed study of the relation between cesarean birth and child cognitive development. We measure differences in child cognitive performance at 4 to 9 years of age between cesarean-born and vaginally-born children (n = 3,666) participating in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). LSAC is a nationally representative birth cohort surveyed biennially. Using multivariate regression, we control for a large range of confounders related to perinatal risk factors and the socio-economic advantage associated with cesarean-born children. Across several measures, we find that cesarean-born children perform significantly below vaginally-born children, by up to a tenth of a standard deviation in national numeracy test scores at age 8–9. Estimates from a low-risk sub-sample and lower-bound analysis suggest that the relation is not spuriously related to unobserved confounding. Lower rates of breastfeeding and adverse child and maternal health outcomes that are associated with cesarean birth are found to explain less than a third of the cognitive gap, which points to the importance of other mechanisms such as disturbed gut microbiota. The findings underline the need for a precautionary approach in responding to requests for a planned cesarean when there are no apparent elevated risks from vaginal birth.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In a nationally representative Australian birth cohort (n = 3,666), cesarean-born children scored significantly lower than vaginally-born children on several cognitive measures from ages 4–9, with differences up to about one-tenth of a standard deviation in Grade 3 numeracy. The authors argue the relation is unlikely to be fully explained by observed confounding, and that breastfeeding and adverse child/maternal health outcomes explain less than a third of the gap.
Key findings
- Cesarean birth was negatively associated with multiple cognitive outcomes after adjustment for socio-economic and perinatal confounders: NAPLAN reading (−0.076), writing (−0.060), grammar (−0.055*), numeracy (−0.095*), problem solving at 8–9 (−0.069*), and vocabulary at 4–5 (−0.087).
- In the low-risk privately insured sub-sample (n = 2,140), estimates were generally larger, e.g., numeracy −0.135, writing −0.131, spelling −0.132, school readiness −0.127, and vocabulary at 4–5 −0.127.
- Mediation analysis found breastfeeding, obesity, and ADD significantly mediated the relation; total mediators accounted for 25% of the reading gap (p = 0.052) and 29% of the numeracy gap (p = 0.021), leaving at least 70% unexplained.
- Oster lower-bound estimates were similar to the main OLS estimates for most outcomes, e.g., numeracy −0.09, suggesting results are unlikely to be entirely driven by unobserved confounding.
Methods
- Data: Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) B cohort, initially about 5,100 infants born March 2003–February 2004; final analytic sample n = 3,666 after attrition. About 30% were reported cesarean-born.
- Outcomes: interviewer-administered PPVT vocabulary, Who Am I? school readiness, Matrix Reasoning problem solving, and Grade 3 NAPLAN numeracy/literacy at ages 4–9.
- Analysis: OLS multivariate regression with over 20 socio-economic and perinatal confounders; mediation via product of coefficients; sensitivity analyses using a low-risk privately insured sub-sample and Oster lower-bound estimates.
Limitations
- The paper states that causal relations are not established: unobserved confounding remains possible, including inheritable genetic traits such as maternal height/cephalopelvic disproportion that may affect both cesarean birth and child cognition.
- The paper notes possible measurement error, such as caregiver under-reporting of health conditions, and that mediating effects may be biased by unobserved confounding.
- Evident from the text: the design is observational with no randomization; cesarean birth is identified by caregiver report, though rates were comparable to national hospital statistics; and missing Grade 3 NAPLAN scores were imputed for some students.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 46 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
Lower rates of breastfeeding and adverse child and maternal health outcomes associated with cesarean birth explain less than a third of the cognitive gap.
“Lower rates of breastfeeding and adverse child and maternal health outcomes that are associated with cesarean birth are found to explain less than a third of the cognitive gap”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cesarean-born children perform significantly below vaginally-born children on several cognitive measures.
“Across several measures, we find that cesarean-born children perform significantly below vaginally-born children”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
With the exception of school readiness at 4-5 years and problem solving at 6-7 years, the Oster coefficients are much the same as the OLS regression coefficients estimated on the entire sample.
“With the exception of school readiness at 4–5 years and problem solving at 6–7 years, the Oster coefficients are much the same as the OLS regression coefficients estimated on the entire sample.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Selection on unobserved covariates is equal to selection on observed covariates.
- Findingown data
Much of the estimated relations (around 70%) are found to be unrelated to lower rates of breastfeeding and adverse child and maternal health, including the diagnosis of child cognitive disorders.
“Importantly, much of the estimated relations (around 70%) are found to be unrelated to lower rates of breastfeeding and adverse child and maternal health, including the diagnosis of child cognitive disorders.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
We find a negative relation between cesarean birth and a range of cognitive outcomes measured from ages 4 to 9.
“We find a negative relation between cesarean birth and a range of cognitive outcomes measured from ages 4 to 9.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
The largest individual mediating effect is through reduced chances of breastfeeding, explaining 0.008 percentage points out of the 0.076 percentage point difference (around 11%) of the gap in grade 3 NAPLAN writing scores.
“Individually, the largest mediating effect is through reduced chances of breastfeeding, which explains 0.008 percentage points out of the 0.076 percentage point difference (or around 11%) of the gap in grade 3 NAPLAN writing scores.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
The estimated relations using the low-risk privately insured sample are generally larger than those estimated using the entire sample.
“The estimated relations using the low-risk privately insured sample are generally larger than those estimated using the entire sample.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Restricting the sample to low-risk privately insured births reduces bias by also restricting differences in unobserved covariates.
- Rests on an assumption: Those without private health insurance are more likely than those with private insurance to have a cesarean performed for medical reasons.
- Findingown data
The total mediating effect, when all mediators are included together, accounts for between 25% for reading (p = 0.052) and 29% for numeracy (p = 0.021) of the estimated difference in cognitive outcomes by delivery mode.
“The total mediating effect, generated from regressions when all of the mediators are included together, account for between 25% for reading (p = 0.052) and 29% for numeracy (p = 0.021) of the estimated difference in cognitive outcomes by delivery mode.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
At least 70% of the relations between cesarean birth and cognitive outcomes remain unexplained by the mediators.
“This still leaves at least 70% of the relations unexplained by these mediators.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Breastfeeding, obesity and ADD significantly mediate the relation between cesarean birth and child cognitive outcomes, although effect size and significance vary.
“Combining these results, breastfeeding, obesity and ADD are found to significantly mediate the relation between cesarean birth and child cognitive outcomes, although the effects size and significance vary (Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The growth in cesarean rates cannot be explained by increases in obstetric risk factors, including delayed and multiple infant pregnancy and maternal obesity.
“growth that cannot be explained by increases in obstetric risk factors, including those associated with delayed and multiple infant pregnancy and maternal obesity3–6”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [3] Bailit, J. L., Love, T. E. & Mercer, B. Rising cesarean rates: are patients sicker? American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 191, 800–803 (2004). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [4] Einarsdóttir, K. et al. Increase in caesarean deliveries after the Australian private health insurance incentive policy reforms. PLOS One 7, e41436 (2012). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [5] O’Leary, C. et al. Trends in mode of delivery during 1984–2003: can they be explained by pregnancy and delivery complications? BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology 114, 855–864 (2007). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [6] Stavrou, E. P., Ford, J. B., Shand, A. W., Morris, J. M. & Roberts, C. L. Epidemiology and trends for caesarean section births in New South Wales, Australia: a population-based study. BMC pregnancy and childbirth 11, 1–7 (2011). source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Cesarean procedures pose postnatal maternal health risks.
“The surgical nature of cesarean procedures also poses postnatal maternal health risks15”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [15] Liu, S. et al. Risk of maternal postpartum readmission associated with mode of delivery. Obstetrics & Gynecology 105, 836–842 (2005). source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
The remaining cognitive gap points to the importance of other mechanisms such as disturbed gut microbiota.
“which points to the importance of other mechanisms such as disturbed gut microbiota”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The gut of cesarean-born children is seeded through contact with the mother’s skin and hospital surfaces, unlike vaginally-born children whose gut is seeded by passing through the birth canal.
- Premisecitation
Chemical signaling from the gut microbiota to the central nervous system affects memory, motivation, mood and stress reactivity.
“Recently uncovered chemical signaling from the gut microbiota to the central nervous system, affecting memory, motivation, mood and stress reactivity, raises questions about the long-term cognitive effects of disturbed microbiota composition at a sensitive time in brain development25, 26.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [25] Cryan, J. F. & Dinan, T. G. Mind-altering microorganisms: the impact of the gut microbiota on brain and behavior. Nature Reviews Neuroscience 13, 701–712 (2012). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [26] Galland, L. The gut microbiome and the brain. Journal of Medicinal Food 17, 1261–1272 (2014). source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
Estimates from a low-risk sub-sample and lower-bound analysis suggest that the relation between cesarean birth and child cognitive outcomes is not spuriously related to unobserved confounding.
“Estimates from a low-risk sub-sample and lower-bound analysis suggest that the relation is not spuriously related to unobserved confounding.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Rodents lacking all gut bacteria from birth have memory deficits and behavioral abnormalities compared to animals with normal gut microbiota.
“These studies show that rodents lacking all gut bacteria from birth (germ-free animals) have memory deficits28 and behavioral abnormalities29, 30 when compared to animals with normal gut microbiota.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [28] Gareau, M. et al. Bacterial infection causes stress-induced memory dysfunction in mice. Gut 60, 307–17 (2010). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [29] Diamond, B., Huerta, P., Tracey, K. & Volpe, B. It takes guts to grow a brain. Bioessays 33, 588–591 (2011). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [30] Neufeld, K., Kang, N. & Bienenstock, J. Foster Reduced anxiety like behavior and central neurochemical change in germ-free mice. Neurogastroenterology & Motility 23, 255–e119 (2011). source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Postnatal maternal health risks have potential knock-on effects for child development through altered mother-child interactions and lower rates of breastfeeding.
“with potential knock-on effects for the child’s development through altered mother-child interactions16 and lower rates of breastfeeding17–19”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [16] Kelly, Y., Sacker, A., Del Bono, E., Francesconi, M. & Marmot, M. What role for the home learning environment and parenting in reducing the socioeconomic gradient in child development? Findings from the Millennium Cohort Study. Archives of Disease in Childhood 96, 832–837 (2011). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [17] Kramer, M. et al. Breastfeeding and child cognitive development: new evidence from a large randomized trial. Archives of General Psychiatry 65, 578–584 (2008). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [18] Oddy, W. et al. Breast feeding and cognitive development in childhood: a prospective birth cohort study. Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology 17, 81–90 (2003). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [19] Zanardo, V. et al. Elective cesarean delivery: does it have a negative effect on breastfeeding? Birth 37, 275–279 (2010). source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductown data
The analysis controls for a large range of confounders related to perinatal risk factors and the socio-economic advantage associated with cesarean-born children.
“Using multivariate regression, we control for a large range of confounders related to perinatal risk factors and the socio-economic advantage associated with cesarean-born children.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
The estimated relations are established after controlling for socio-economic advantage associated with cesarean birth in Australia and a rich set of perinatal risk factors commonly used in child health studies.
“These relations are established after controlling for the socio-economic advantage associated with cesarean birth in Australia and a rich set of perinatal risk factors that (from meta-analyses)9, 11, 27 are commonly used in child health studies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [9] Cardwell, C. et al. Caesarean section is associated with an increased risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis of observational studies. Diabetologia 51, 726–735 (2008). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [11] Thavagnanam, S., Fleming, J., Bromley, A., Shields, M. & Cardwell, C. A meta-analysis of the association between caesarean section and childhood asthma. Clinical & Experimental Allergy 38, 629–633 (2008). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [27] Curran, E. A. et al. Research review: birth by caesarean section and development of autism spectrum disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry 56, 500–508 (2015). source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
Results of the sensitivity tests suggest that the estimated OLS relations are unlikely to be entirely driven by bias from unobserved confounding.
“Results of these sensitivity tests suggest that the estimated OLS relations are unlikely to be entirely driven by bias from unobserved confounding.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Restricting the sample to low-risk privately insured births reduces bias by also restricting differences in unobserved covariates.
- Rests on an assumption: Those without private health insurance are more likely than those with private insurance to have a cesarean performed for medical reasons.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Selection on unobserved covariates is equal to selection on observed covariates.
- Interpretationown data
Non-random attrition does not appear to be seriously biasing the results.
“The implication is that non-random attrition does not appear to be seriously biasing our results.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The study has not established causal relations because bias from unobserved confounding is still possible.
“This does not mean that we have established causal relations because bias from unobserved confounding is still possible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The OLS estimate of the relation between cesarean birth and cognitive development may be biased by unobserved confounding.
“Identification of the main parameter of interest, in equation (1) and the mediating effects is complicated by potential unobserved confounding, which means that may be biased by correlation between and .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Excluding postnatal interventions and prenatal risk factors with high rates of missing observations makes little difference to the results.
“Excluding postnatal interventions and prenatal risk factors with high rates of missing observations makes little difference to the results (see Table S2 of the online supporting material for model results with these factors included as additional controls).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Imputing missing NAPLAN values instead of omitting them makes little difference to the analysis.
“Imputing these values instead of omitting them makes little difference to our analysis (see Table S1 of the online supporting material).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductcitation
National statistics from hospital records show comparable rates of cesarean birth - 28% and 30% for 2003 and 2004 respectively.
“However, this is not borne out in national statistics from hospital records that show comparable rates of cesarean birth — 28% and 30% for 2003 and 2004 respectively35, 36.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [35] Laws, P. & Sullivan. E. Australia’s mothers and babies 2003. Canberra, (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2005).
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [36] Laws, P. Grayson, N. & Sullivan. E. Australia’s mothers and babies 2004. Canberra, (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2006).
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
Causal relations between cesarean birth and child cognitive development are plausible.
“First, our sensitivity analysis suggests that bias from unobserved confounding is unlikely to explain the results completely and that causal relations are plausible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Sensitivity analysis suggests that bias from unobserved confounding is unlikely to explain the results completely.
“First, our sensitivity analysis suggests that bias from unobserved confounding is unlikely to explain the results completely and that causal relations are plausible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisenone given
Only Bentley et al. has examined the relation between cesarean birth and cognitive outcomes.
“To the best of our knowledge, only Bentley et al.31 has examined the relation between cesarean birth and cognitive outcomes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] Bentley, J. et al. Planned birth before 39 weeks: A population-based study. Pediatrics 138, 1–9 (2016). source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
The 11 percentage point higher rate of private health insurance among cesarean born children than among vaginally born children is explained by the greater likelihood of elective cesareans occurring in private hospitals under private health insurance.
“This explains the 11 percentage point higher rate of private health insurance among cesarean born children than among vaginally born children.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Maternal requested cesarean birth without any medical risk factors is not covered by the public health system in Australia.
- Rests on an assumption: It is much more common for elective cesareans to occur in private hospitals under the cover of private health insurance.
- Study design and conductown data
There is no evidence that results at wave 3 differ between the full sample and the restricted sample that remained in the survey until wave 5.
“Using a two-sample t-test, we find no evidence that results estimated results at wave 3 are different for the full and restricted samples ( = 0.54, p-value = 0.46 and = 1.64, p-value = 0.20 respectively).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 19
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 16
May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataThe difference in national numeracy test scores at age 8-9 is about 0.095 standard deviations, with cesarean-born children scoring lower.
“by up to a tenth of a standard deviation in national numeracy test scores at age 8–9”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPoor maternal general health is significantly associated with lower vocabulary at 4-5 years, but otherwise maternal health is not significantly linked to any of the cognitive measures.
“Poor maternal general health is significantly associated with lower vocabulary at 4–5 years, but otherwise maternal health is not significantly linked to any of the cognitive measures.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataDescriptive statistics show that cesarean birth is associated with higher perinatal risk factors and a socio-economic advantage, especially higher maternal education, fewer older siblings, lower rates of un-partnered birth and higher rates of private health insurance.
“In general, descriptive statistics of the control variables presented in Table 1 show that cesarean birth is associated with higher perinatal risk factors and a socio-economic advantage, especially higher maternal education, fewer older siblings, lower rates of un-partnered birth and higher rates of private health insurance.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOur estimated relations persist long-term and are not confined to children with health problems.
“Second, our estimated relations persist long-term and are not confined to children with health problems.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataCesarean birth is significantly associated with lower rates of breastfeeding and higher rates of obesity and ADD.
“Results from the first stage of our mediating analysis suggest that cesarean birth is significantly associated with lower rates of breastfeeding and higher rates of obesity and ADD (see Table S4 of online supporting material).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataApproximately 30% of primary care givers in the sample report that their children were cesarean-born.
“In our sample, approximately 30% of primary care givers report that their children were cesarean-born (between March 2003 and February 2004).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataBreastfeeding is significantly associated with higher cognitive performance, whereas ADD, ASD and obesity are significantly associated with lower levels of cognitive performance.
“Second stage results show that breastfeeding is significantly associated with higher cognitive performance, whereas ADD, ASD and obesity are significantly associated with lower levels of cognitive performance.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThere are long-term compositional differences in gut microbiota by mode of birth, with differences observed up until age seven.
“The result is long-term compositional differences in gut microbiota by mode of birth20–24, with differences observed up until age seven24.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [20] Bäckhed, F. et al. Dynamics and stabilization of the human gut microbiome during the first year of life. Cell Host & Microbe 17, 690–703 (2015). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [21] Dominguez-Bello, M. et al. Delivery mode shapes the acquisition and structure of the initial microbiota across multiple body habitats in newborns. Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences 107, 11971–11975 (2010). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [22] Jakobsson, H. et al. Decreased gut microbiota diversity, de-layed bacteroidetes colonisation and reduced th1 responses in infants delivered by caesarean section. Gut 63, 559–566 (2014). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [23] Penders, J. et al. Factors influencing the composition of the intestinal microbiota in early infancy. Pediatrics 118, 511–521 (2006). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [24] Salminen, S., Gibson, G., McCartney, A. & Isolauri, E. Influence of mode of delivery on gut microbiota composition in seven year old children. Gut 53, 1388–1389 (2004). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationCesarean sections can save lives, but rates well above the WHO recommended 15% ceiling in most developed countries suggest that many procedures are unnecessary.
“Cesarean sections can save lives, but rates well above the World Health Organization’s recommended 15% ceiling in most developed countries suggest that many procedures are unnecessary1.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] Gibbons, L. et al. The global numbers and costs of additionally needed and unnecessary caesarean sections performed per year: overuse as a barrier to universal coverage. World Health Report 30, 1–31 (2010).
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationIn the OECD, the rate of caesarean section increased from 14.4% of deliveries in 1990 to 25.8% in 2009.
“In the OECD, the rate of caesarean section has increased from 14.4% of deliveries in 1990 to 25.8% in 20092”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [2] OECD. Health at a glance. Paris, (OECD 2011).
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThese adverse child health outcomes are associated with impaired functioning and lower academic performance.
“that are also associated with impaired functioning and lower academic performance13, 14”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [13] Taras, H. & Potts-Datema, W. Chronic health conditions and student performance at school. Journal of School Health 75, 255–266 (2005). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [14] Taras, H. & Potts‐Datema, W. Obesity and student performance at school. Journal of School Health 75, 291–295 (2005). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationLSAC is a nationally representative birth cohort surveyed biennially.
“LSAC is a nationally representative birth cohort surveyed biennially.”
- Also stated in: § Data · plain
“LSAC is an internationally recognized and widely-used longitudinal cohort survey of child health and development33, 34.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [33] Fiorini, M. & Keane, M. How the allocation of children’s time affects cognitive and noncognitive development. Journal of Labor Economics 32, 787–836 (2014). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [34] Bradbury, B., Corak M., Waldfogel, J. & Washbrook, E. Too many children left behind: The US achievement gap in comparative perspective, New York, (Russell Sage Foundation 2015).
Not checked in the free run.
- Also stated in: § Data · plain
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationCesarean birth is associated with adverse child health outcomes including asthma, type I diabetes, allergies, and obesity.
“established links between cesarean birth and adverse child health outcomes, including asthma, type I diabetes, allergies9–11 and obesity12”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [9] Cardwell, C. et al. Caesarean section is associated with an increased risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis of observational studies. Diabetologia 51, 726–735 (2008). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [10] Cho, C. E. & Norman, M. Cesarean section and development of the immune system in the off- spring. American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 208, 249–254 (2013). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [11] Thavagnanam, S., Fleming, J., Bromley, A., Shields, M. & Cardwell, C. A meta-analysis of the association between caesarean section and childhood asthma. Clinical & Experimental Allergy 38, 629–633 (2008). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [12] Li, H., Zhou, Y. & Liu, J. The impact of cesarean section on offspring overweight and obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis. International Journal of Obesity 37, 893–899 (2013). source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataThe analysis includes over 20 confounders grouped into perinatal risk factors and socio-economic advantage.
“The analysis includes over 20 confounders grouped into two main categories (Table 1): those related to perinatal risk factors and those related to the socio-economic advantage associated with cesarean-born children in Australia.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataResults for alternative models with different treatment of low birth weight and gestational age are much the same as those reported in Table 2.
“Results for these alternative models are much the same as those reported in Table 2 (available upon request from the corresponding author).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationA tenth of a standard deviation is similar in magnitude to the estimated relation between gender and reading in NAPLAN at age 8-9 and to effects estimated from improving teacher quality by one standard deviation and reducing average grade 3 class sizes by ten.
“To put the size of these relations into perspective, a tenth of a standard deviation is similar in magnitude to the estimated relation between gender and reading in NAPLAN at age 8–9 (reported in Table S5a) and effects estimated from improving teacher quality by one standard deviation and reducing average grade 3 class sizes by ten50.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [50] Rivkin, S. G. & Hanushek, E. A. & Kain. J. F. Teachers, schools, and academic achievement. Econometrica 73, 417–458 (2005). source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe presence of unobserved perinatal risk factors will lead to an over-estimate of any true negative relation between cesarean birth and cognitive development, whereas the presence of unobserved socio-economic advantage will lead to an under-estimate of any negative relation.
“The presence of the former will lead to an over-estimate of any true negative relation between cesarean birth and cognitive development; whereas the presence of the latter will lead to an under-estimate of any negative relation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationcitationOur results are consistent with results from Bentley et al.
“Our results are consistent with results from the only previous study that we are aware of by Bentley et al.31, which found cesarean-born children had a 14% higher risk of being identified as being developmentally high risk at school starting age.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] Bentley, J. et al. Planned birth before 39 weeks: A population-based study. Pediatrics 138, 1–9 (2016). source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThese cognitive deficits in rodents can be corrected through colonization of the intestine via a fecal transplant from the control group, but only if it occurs early in life.
“Interestingly, these cognitive deficits in rodents can be corrected through the colonization of the intestine via a fecal transplant from the control group, but only if it occurs early in life.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [28] Gareau, M. et al. Bacterial infection causes stress-induced memory dysfunction in mice. Gut 60, 307–17 (2010). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [29] Diamond, B., Huerta, P., Tracey, K. & Volpe, B. It takes guts to grow a brain. Bioessays 33, 588–591 (2011). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [30] Neufeld, K., Kang, N. & Bienenstock, J. Foster Reduced anxiety like behavior and central neurochemical change in germ-free mice. Neurogastroenterology & Motility 23, 255–e119 (2011). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningA possible explanation for the larger estimates in the low-risk privately insured sample is that limiting the sample to privately-insured births reduces unobserved confounding from socio-economic advantage, which in the main analysis under-states the true effects of cesarean birth.
“A possible explanation is that by limiting the sample to privately-insured births we are reducing the unobserved confounding from the socio-economic advantage associated with cesarean-born children, which in the main analysis under-states the true effects of cesarean birth.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Restricting the sample to low-risk privately insured births reduces bias by also restricting differences in unobserved covariates.
- Rests on an assumption: Those without private health insurance are more likely than those with private insurance to have a cesarean performed for medical reasons.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Interpretationown dataBy showing that only a small part of the cognitive gap is explained by mediating factors, our results leave open the possibility that direct mechanisms, such as disturbed gut microbiota, may be important.
“By showing that only a small part of the cognitive gap is explained by mediating factors, our results leave open the possibility that direct mechanisms, such as disturbed gut microbiota, may be important.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningWe cannot rule out the possibility that at least some of the residual effect is due to measurement error, for example, under-reporting of the presence of health conditions by the primary care giver, or that the mediating effects are biased by unobserved confounding.
“However, we cannot rule-out the possibility that at least some of the residual effect is due to measurement error, for example, under-reporting of the presence of health conditions by the primary care giver, or that the mediating effects are biased by unobserved confounding.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe main potential sources of unobserved confounding may be missing controls for perinatal risk factors (such as oxygen deprivation during birth) and socio-economic advantage (such as greater household income) associated with cesarean-born children.
“The main potential sources of unobserved confounding may be missing controls for perinatal risk factors (such as oxygen deprivation during birth) and socio-economic advantage (such as greater household income) associated with cesarean-born children.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationBentley et al. found that cesarean-born children had a 14% higher risk of being identified as developmentally high risk at school starting age.
“Our results are consistent with results from the only previous study that we are aware of by Bentley et al.31, which found cesarean-born children had a 14% higher risk of being identified as being developmentally high risk at school starting age.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] Bentley, J. et al. Planned birth before 39 weeks: A population-based study. Pediatrics 138, 1–9 (2016). source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationBentley et al. used perinatal records linked to school starting-age measures of cognition and could not examine longer-term outcomes or quantify mediating effects.
“Bentley et al.31 used perinatal records linked to school starting-age measures of cognition and could not examine longer-term outcomes or quantify mediating effects.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] Bentley, J. et al. Planned birth before 39 weeks: A population-based study. Pediatrics 138, 1–9 (2016). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationPotential perinatal risks not controlled for include inheritable genetic traits, such as a lack of maternal height, that may drive both cesarean birth (due to a relatively small pelvis) and child cognitive outcomes.
“Potential perinatal risks not controlled for include inheritable genetic traits, such as a lack of maternal height, that may drive both cesarean birth (due to a relatively small pelvis (cephalopelvic disproportion))51 and child cognitive outcomes52.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [51] Khunpradit, S., Patumanond, J. & Tawichasri, C. Risk indicators for cesarean section due to cephalopelvic disproportion in Lamphun hospital. Journal-Medical Association of Thailand 88, S63–S68 (2005).
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [52] Sundet, J. M., Tambs, K., Harris, J. R., Magnus, P. & Torjussen, T. M. Resolving the genetic and environmental sources of the correlation between height and intelligence: A study of nearly 2600 Norwegian male twin pairs. Twin Research and Human Genetics 8, 307–311 (2005). source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe results are not sensitive to the inclusion of antibiotic medication as a control or other child and maternal health risks in the data.
“However, we stress that our results are not sensitive to the inclusion of this control, or other child and maternal health risks in the data (refer to results for the ‘low-risk privately insured’ group in Table 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
InterpretationcitationThere is a critical window to correct any disruption to the gut microbiota, after which cognitive impacts are permanent.
“The implication is that there is a critical window to correct any disruption to the gut microbiota, after which cognitive impacts are permanent25.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [25] Cryan, J. F. & Dinan, T. G. Mind-altering microorganisms: the impact of the gut microbiota on brain and behavior. Nature Reviews Neuroscience 13, 701–712 (2012). source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationBentley et al. found a significant negative association between cesarean birth and several developmental domains using Australian hospital records linked to teacher-based assessments in the first year of school.
“Using Australian hospital records linked to teacher-based assessments in the first year of school, they found a significant negative association across several developmental domains.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] Bentley, J. et al. Planned birth before 39 weeks: A population-based study. Pediatrics 138, 1–9 (2016). source
Not checked in the free run.
The paper relies on this without support.
The gut of cesarean-born children is seeded through contact with the mother’s skin and hospital surfaces, unlike vaginally-born children whose gut is seeded by passing through the birth canal.
“Unlike vaginally-born children whose gut is seeded by passing through the birth canal, the gut of cesarean-born children is seeded through contact with the mother’s skin and hospital surfaces.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Maternal requested cesarean birth without any medical risk factors is not covered by the public health system in Australia.
“Important in the context of this study, maternal requested cesarean birth (without any medical risk factors) is not covered by the public health system.”
The paper relies on this without support.
It is much more common for elective cesareans to occur in private hospitals under the cover of private health insurance.
“It is much more common for elective cesareans to occur in private hospitals under the cover of private health insurance.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Restricting the sample to low-risk privately insured births reduces bias by also restricting differences in unobserved covariates.
“The idea is that by restricting the sample to those that are more similar on observed covariates, we are reducing bias by also restricting differences in unobserved covariates.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Those without private health insurance are more likely than those with private insurance to have a cesarean performed for medical reasons.
“We omitted those without private health insurance because they are more likely than those with private insurance to have a cesarean performed for medical reasons.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Selection on unobserved covariates is equal to selection on observed covariates.
“The Oster coefficients in Table 2 represent the possible lower-bound of any relation between cesarean birth and cognitive development measures under the conservative assumption that selection on unobserved covariates is the same as selection on observed covariates.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Mode of delivery is linked with child cognitive development.
“which fits with previous studies linking mode of delivery with child cognitive development (Polidano et al., 2017), highlighting the importance of gut microbiota colonization in cognitive development and function.”
From The Microbiota-Gut-Brain Axis (2019) · cites this paper as Polidano et al., 2017
Delivery mode is linked with neurocognitive development and long-term poor immune and metabolic health outcomes.
“Other studies have also linked delivery mode with neurocognitive development and long-term poor immune and metabolic health outcomes, highlighting the importance of microbial colonization at birth (400, 401).”
From Signalling cognition: The gut microbiota and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (2023) · cites this paper as [400]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Writing mediation figures are attributed to the wrong outcome
MinorThe stated breastfeeding effect of 0.008 belongs to reading in Table 3; the table gives 0.003 for writing. The stated overall difference of 0.076 likewise belongs to reading in Table 2, rather than writing.
“0.008 percentage points out of the 0.076 percentage point difference (or around 11%) of the gap in grade 3 NAPLAN writing scores.”
“| Writing | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0.008* | 0.000 | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 |”
Standardized score differences are called percentage points
MinorThe 0.076 difference is reported in Table 2 in standard-deviation units, not percentage points.
“0.008 percentage points out of the 0.076 percentage point difference”
“Table: Table 2 OLS regression estimates and Oster lower-bound estimates of the relations between cesarean birth and child cognitive (standard deviations).”
Significant problem-solving result assigned to the wrong age
MinorThe text places the significant problem-solving result at age 4-5, but Table 2 places it at age 8-9.
“problem solving (MR) and vocabulary (PPVT) at age 4–5 are statistically significant at the 0.1 level or higher.”
“| Problem solving 8–9 | −0.069* | (0.039) | −0.077 | (0.069) | −0.068 |”
Wave 5 date conflicts with children's stated age
MinorChildren born between March 2003 and February 2004 would be about 10-11 in 2014, not 8-9.
“At the time of analysis, data were only available up until wave 5 (2014) of the survey when the children are 8–9.”
“infants born between March 2003 to February 2004”
Table 1 labels standard deviations as standard errors
MinorThe column labeled "s.e." gives 0.498 for the proportion of female children among 1,080 cesarean births. That is consistent with a binary-variable standard deviation; the standard error of the reported proportion would be about 0.015.
“| | Mode of birth Cesarean (n=1,080) | Mode of birth s.e. | Mode of birth Vaginal (n=2,586) | Mode of birth s.e. | p-value of diff.a |”
“| Female child | 0.457 | 0.498 | 0.500 | 0.500 | [0.019] |”
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The First 1000 Days: Assembly of the Neonatal Microbiome and Its Impact on Health Outcomes
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COMPLICAÇÕES DA CESÁREA NA SAÚDE INFANTIL: UMA REVISÃO INTEGRATIVA DA LITERATURA
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Social Organisation of the Work of Maternity Clinicians Related to a Central Fetal Monitoring System
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La césarienne, une pratique « contre-nature » ?
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- Authors
- Polidano, C., Zhu, A., & Bornstein, J. C.
- Affiliations
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Polidano, Cain
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2017-09-13
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 11483-11483
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5597642
- OpenAlex
- W2756418520
- Semantic Scholar
- 4f1af1d0cacf949c84e95913bb76f8c634567de5
- Cited by
- 119
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 7
- FWCI
- 13.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RMIT Research Repository (RMIT University Library) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Department of Social Services, Australian Government
- University of Sydney
- University of Melbourne
- University of Queensland (CE140100027)
- Australian Research Council (CE140100027)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Obstetrics and Gynecology › Maternal and Perinatal Health Interventions
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Infant Development and Preterm Care
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Birth, Development, and Health
- Keywords
- cesarean section, child cognitive development, vaginal delivery, numeracy, academic performance, breastfeeding, gut microbiota, perinatal risk factors, socioeconomic deprivation, Longitudinal Study of Australian Children
- MeSH terms
- Maternal Health, Academic Success, Australia, Breast Feeding, Cesarean Section, Child, Child Development, Child, Preschool, Cognition, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Models, Statistical, Cohort Studies, Biomarkers, Comorbidity, Public Health Surveillance
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