Have American's Social Attitudes Become More Polarized?
Abstract
Many observers have asserted with little evidence that Americans' social opinions have become polarized. Using General Social Survey and National Election Survey social attitude items that have been repeated regularly over 20 years, the authors ask (1) Have Americans' opinions become more dispersed (higher variance)? (2) Have distributions become flatter or more bimodal (declining kurtosis)? (3) Have opinions become more ideologically constrained within and across opinion domains? (4) Have paired social groups become more different in their opinions? The authors find little evidence of polarization over the past two decades, with attitudes toward abortion and opinion differences between Republican and Democratic party identifiers the exceptional cases.
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The scenario in Figure 1 (abortion attitudes) has been identified as a clear case of polarization by DiMaggio et al. (1996) and others.
“The scenario in Figure 1 has been identified as a clear case of polarization by DiMaggio et al. (1996) and others.”
From Disambiguation of social polarization concepts and measures (2016) · cites this paper as DiMaggio et al. (1996)
Previous work on polarization often fails to systematically distinguish the specific ways in which polarization is realized.
“Occurrences of polarization frequently appear in the sociology and political science literature (Baldassarri & Gelman, 2008;Bartels, 2000;Brownstein, 2007;DiMaggio, Evans, & Bryson, 1996;Fiorina, Abrams, & Pope, 2010;Hetherington & Weiler, 2009;Hunter, 1991;McCarty, Poole, & Rosenthal, 2008), but the specific ways in which polarization is realized are not systematically distinguished.”
From Disambiguation of social polarization concepts and measures (2016) · cites this paper as DiMaggio, Evans, & Bryson, 1996
Existing formal measures of polarization are often specific to the analyzed dataset or topic, not fully formalized, not evaluated against other measures, or composite of the measures presented here.
“In those cases in which a formal measure is provided (see Christen, Ott, & Schwarz, 2013;DiMaggio et al., 1996;Fiorina et al., 2010;Estaban & Ray 2012), it may be specific to the analyzed dataset or topic of interest, not fully formalized, not evaluated compared to other measures and/or presented as a measure that is a composite of the measures presented here.”
From Disambiguation of social polarization concepts and measures (2016) · cites this paper as DiMaggio et al., 1996
The abortion attitude data in Figure 1 are trimodal in most years, with a liberal group, a central group, and a third group on the far conservative side.
“furthermore, in most years there is a third group created by an upturn on the far conservative (right) side.So in this strict sense that data is trimodal and would result in a measure of three groups for most years.”
From Disambiguation of social polarization concepts and measures (2016) · cites this paper as DiMaggio et al., 1996
The term polarization is sometimes used to refer to a static property and sometimes to a process.
“The term polarization is sometimes used to refer to a static property and sometimes a process (DiMaggio et al., 1996).”
From Disambiguation of social polarization concepts and measures (2016) · cites this paper as DiMaggio et al., 1996
Issue or ideological polarization is typically operationalized as approaching or arriving at a bimodal distribution of beliefs, opinions and values.
“This type of polarization is typically operationalized as approaching or arriving at a bimodal distribution of beliefs, opinions and values50,72.”
From Cognitive–motivational mechanisms of political polarization in social-communicative contexts (2022) · cites this paper as [50]
The annotated articles were sampled from a diachronic corpus of 1,749 news articles across nearly 3 decades (1947-1974).
“Since polarization is a process that needs to be analyzed over time (DiMaggio et al., 1996), our annotated articles are sampled from a diachronic corpus of 1,749 news articles across nearly 3 decades (from 1947 till 1974).”
From Political Ideology and Polarization: A Multi-dimensional Approach (2022) · cites this paper as DiMaggio et al., 1996
A diachronic corpus is required to measure and analyze polarization over time.
“A diachronic corpus is required to measure and analyze polarization over time (DiMaggio et al., 1996).”
From Political Ideology and Polarization: A Multi-dimensional Approach (2022) · cites this paper as DiMaggio et al., 1996
Heterogeneous and bimodal distributions of opinions have been measured in political surveys, especially on controversial issues.
“However, this prediction is not always confirmed empirically: heterogeneous and bimodal distributions of opinions have been measured in political surveys [6, 7], especially on controversial issues, like abortion or global warming [8, 9].”
From Modeling echo chambers and polarization dynamics in social networks (2020) · cites this paper as [7]
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“This allows us to study polarization as a state of ideological groups with divergent positions on a political issue as well as polarization as a process whose magnitude grows over time (DiMaggio et al., 1996).”
BackgroundInfluentialPolarizing the middle: internet exposure and public opinion
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- Authors
- DiMaggio, P., Evans, J., & Bryson, B.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- Venue
- American Journal of Sociology
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 1996-11
- Volume
- 102
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 690-755
- ISSN
- 0002-9602 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5390
- OpenAlex
- W1980565545
- Semantic Scholar
- 9309e03454a95c6e19f999c5b11d5ae6889c36a8
- Cited by
- 1,250
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 59 · 2025: 77 · 2024: 88 · 2023: 111 · 2022: 85 · 2021: 95 · 2020: 90 · 2019: 62 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 38 · 2016: 42 · 2015: 42 · 2014: 49 · 2013: 24 · 2012: 27
- FWCI
- 54.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Journal of Sociology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Media Influence and Politics
- Keywords
- social attitudes, political polarization, kurtosis, ideological constraints, abortion attitudes, party identification
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