Cost analysis of stratospheric albedo modification delivery systems
Open accessAbstract
We perform engineering cost analyses of systems capable of delivering 1–5 million metric tonnes (Mt) of albedo modification material to altitudes of 18–30 km. The goal is to compare a range of delivery systems evaluated on a consistent cost basis. Cost estimates are developed with statistical cost estimating relationships based on historical costs of aerospace development programs and operations concepts using labor rates appropriate to the operations. We evaluate existing aircraft cost of acquisition and operations, perform in-depth new aircraft and airship design studies and cost analyses, and survey rockets, guns, and suspended gas and slurry pipes, comparing their costs to those of aircraft and airships. Annual costs for delivery systems based on new aircraft designs are estimated to be $1–3B to deliver 1 Mt to 20–30 km or $2–8B to deliver 5 Mt to the same altitude range. Costs for hybrid airships may be competitive, but their large surface area complicates operations in high altitude wind shear, and development costs are more uncertain than those for airplanes. Pipes suspended by floating platforms provide low recurring costs to pump a liquid or gas to altitudes as high as ∼ 20 km, but the research, development, testing and evaluation costs of these systems are high and carry a large uncertainty; the pipe system's high operating pressures and tensile strength requirements bring the feasibility of this system into question. The costs for rockets and guns are significantly higher than those for other systems. We conclude that (a) the basic technological capability to deliver material to the stratosphere at million tonne per year rates exists today, (b) based on prior literature, a few million tonnes per year would be sufficient to alter radiative forcing by an amount roughly equivalent to the growth of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing over the next half century, and that (c) several different methods could possibly deliver this quantity for less than $8B per year. We do not address here the science of aerosols in the stratosphere, nor issues of risk, effectiveness or governance that will add to the costs of solar geoengineering.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere is considered a leading candidate for solar geoengineering because of its economic and technological feasibility and because we have data.
“Injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere is considered a leading candidate for solar geoengineering both because of its economic and technological feasibility [527,743] and because of a reason that should resonate with the ML community: we have data.”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [527]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Stratosphere‐troposphere exchange
Holton, J. R., Haynes, P., McIntyre, M. E., Douglass, A. R., Rood, R. B., & Pfister, L. (1995) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/95rg02097 · Cited by 2,711 · see citing works
Aircraft Design: A Conceptual Approach
(2024) · doi:10.2514/5.9781624107290.0000.0000 · Cited by 2,269 · see citing works
The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Du Toit, J. (2007) · SUNScholar (Stellenbosch University) · Cited by 1,619 · see citing works
The physics of wind-blown sand and dust
Kok, J. F., Parteli, E. J. R., Michaels, T. I., & Karam, D. B. (2012) · Reports on Progress in Physics · doi:10.1088/0034-4885/75/10/106901 · Cited by 1,608 · see citing works
Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma?
Crutzen, P. J. (2006) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y · Cited by 1,541 · see citing works
A question of balance: weighing the options on global warming policies
(2008) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.46-1603 · Cited by 1,237 · see citing works
Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty
Shepherd, J. G., & Rayner, S. (2009) · Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) · Cited by 631 · see citing works
G<scp>EOENGINEERING THE</scp> C<scp>LIMATE</scp>: History and Prospect
Keith, D. W. (2000) · Annual Review of Energy and the Environment · doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.245 · Cited by 567 · see citing works
Self-citationBenefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering
Robock, A. D., Marquardt, A. B., Kravitz, B., & Stenchikov, G. L. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl039209 · Cited by 376 · see citing works
20 reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea
Robock, A. D. (2008) · Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists · doi:10.2968/064002006 · Cited by 327 · see citing works
An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols
Rasch, P. J., Tilmes, S., Turco, R. P., Robock, A., Oman, L., Chen, C.-C. (., Stenchikov, G. L., & Garcia, R. R. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0131 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
Rasch, P. J., Crutzen, P. J., & Coleman, D. B. (2008) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl032179 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Feasibility of cooling the Earth with a cloud of small spacecraft near the inner Lagrange point (L1)
Angel, R. (2006) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0608163103 · Cited by 269 · see citing works
Regional climate response to solar-radiation management
Ricke, K., Morgan, M. G., & Allen, M. R. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo915 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
The Earth's Climate: Past and Future
Berger, A. (1983) · Eos · doi:10.1029/eo064i035p00524-05 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
Pierce, J. R., Weisenstein, D. K., Heckendorn, P., Peter, T., & Keith, D. W. (2010) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2010gl043975 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
Self-citationPhotophoretic levitation of engineered aerosols for geoengineering
Keith, D. W. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1009519107 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate policy under uncertainty: a case for solar geoengineering
Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Keith, D. W. (2012) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0487-4 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Earth's climate, past and future
Budyko, M. I. (1982) · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Climate engineering responses to climate emergencies
Battisti, D. S., Blackstock, J. J., Caldeira, K., Eardley, D. E., Katz, J. I., Keith, D. W., Koonin, S. E., Patrinos, A. A. N., Schrag, D. P., & Socolow, R. H. (2009) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/5/452015 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Self-citationStratospheric albedo modification
Katz, J. I. (2010) · Energy & Environmental Science · doi:10.1039/c002441d · Cited by 11 · see citing works
A Computer Model for Estimating Development and Procurement Costs of Aircraft (DAPCA-III)
Boren, H. E. (1976) · Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 23 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Tackling climate change with machine learning
Rolnick, D., Donti, P. L., Kaack, L. H., Kochanski, K., Lacoste, A., Sankaran, K., Ross, A. S., Milojevic-Dupont, N., Jaques, N., Waldman-Brown, A., et al. (2023) · ACM Computing Surveys · doi:10.1145/3485128 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals
Lawrence, M. G., Schäfer, S., Muri, H., Scott, V., Oschlies, A., Vaughan, N. E., Boucher, O., Schmidt, H., Haywood, J., & Scheffran, J. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05938-3 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Mills, M. J., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., Lamarque, J., Tribbia, J. J., & Vitt, F. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2017jd026874 · Cited by 275 · see citing works
An overview of the Earth system science of solar geoengineering
Irvine, P. J., Kravitz, B., Lawrence, M. G., & Muri, H. (2016) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.423 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5°C Paris target
MacMartin, D. G., Ricke, K., & Keith, D. W. (2018) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0454 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
Self-citationStratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment
Smith, W., & Wagner, G. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Stratospheric solar geoengineering without ozone loss
Keith, D. W., Weisenstein, D. K., Dykema, J. A., & Keutsch, F. N. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1615572113 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Risk of Termination Shock From Solar Geoengineering
Parker, A., & Irvine, P. J. (2018) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1002/2017ef000735 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Assessing Transformation Pathways
(2015) · Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415416.012 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
Weitzman, M. L. (2015) · The Scandinavian Journal of Economics · doi:10.1111/sjoe.12120 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
What is the limit of climate engineering by stratospheric injection of SO <sub>2</sub> ?
Niemeier, U., & Timmreck, C. (2015) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Why Solar Radiation Management Geoengineering and Democracy Won't Mix
Szerszynski, B., Kearnes, M., Macnaghten, P., Owen, R., & Stilgoe, J. (2013) · Environment and Planning A Economy and Space · doi:10.1068/a45649 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering
Keith, D. W., & MacMartin, D. G. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2493 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Self-citationSolar geoengineering using solid aerosol in the stratosphere
Weisenstein, D. K., Keith, D. W., & Dykema, J. A. (2015) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-15-11835-2015 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
Self-citationStrategic incentives for climate geoengineering coalitions to exclude broad participation
Ricke, K., Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Caldeira, K. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014021 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Solar geoengineering to reduce climate change: a review of governance proposals
Reynolds, J. L. (2019) · Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspa.2019.0255 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Mitigation and the geoengineering threat
Moreno‐Cruz, J. (2015) · Resource and Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.reseneeco.2015.06.001 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
The cost of stratospheric aerosol injection through 2100
Smith, W. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e7 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research
Kravitz, B., & MacMartin, D. G. (2020) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-019-0004-7 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
A critical examination of the climate engineering moral hazard and risk compensation concern
Reynolds, J. (2015) · The Anthropocene Review · doi:10.1177/2053019614554304 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Keith, D. W., & Irvine, P. J. (2016) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2016ef000465 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Self-citationKleinschmitt, C., Boucher, O., & Platt, U. (2018) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-18-2769-2018 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Review of geoengineering approaches to mitigating climate change
Zhang, Z., Moore, J. C., Huisingh, D., & Zhao, Y. (2015) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.09.076 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Solar geoengineering reduces atmospheric carbon burden
Keith, D. W., Wagner, G., & Zabel, C. L. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3376 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Self-citationKeith, D. W., Duren, R., & MacMartin, D. G. (2014) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0175 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Self-citationThe cost of stratospheric climate engineering revisited
Moriyama, R., Sugiyama, M., Kurosawa, A., Masuda, K., Tsuzuki, K., & Ishimoto, Y. (2016) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-016-9723-y · Cited by 78 · see citing works
The Governance of Solar Geoengineering
Reynolds, J. L. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316676790 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering
Irvine, P. J., Kravitz, B., Lawrence, M. G., Gerten, D., Caminade, C., Gosling, S. N., Hendy, E. J., Kassie, B. T., Kissling, W. D., Muri, H., et al. (2017) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2016ef000389 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon
Heutel, G., Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Shayegh, S. (2017) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2017.11.002 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Sulfate geoengineering: a review of the factors controlling the needed injection of sulfur dioxide
Visioni, D., Pitari, G., & Aquila, V. (2017) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-17-3879-2017 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Halving warming with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering moderates policy-relevant climate hazards
Irvine, P. J., & Keith, D. W. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab76de · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Self-citationLaakso, A., Kokkola, H., Partanen, A.-I., Niemeier, U., Timmreck, C., Lehtinen, K. E. J., Hakkarainen, H., & Korhonen, H. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-305-2016 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Mission-driven research for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
MacMartin, D. G., & Kravitz, B. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1811022116 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: Clash or cooperation?
Heyen, D., Horton, J. B., & Moreno‐Cruz, J. (2019) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2019.03.005 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
The Engineering of Climate Engineering
MacMartin, D. G., & Kravitz, B. (2018) · Annual Review of Control Robotics and Autonomous Systems · doi:10.1146/annurev-control-053018-023725 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering
Jackson, L., Crook, J. A., Jarvis, A., Leedal, D. T., Ridgwell, A. J., Vaughan, N. E., & Forster, P. M. D. F. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2014gl062240 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Mitigation of Arctic permafrost carbon loss through stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Chen, Y., Liu, A., & Moore, J. C. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16357-8 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Climate tipping points and solar geoengineering
Heutel, G., Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Shayegh, S. (2016) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2016.07.002 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Heutel, G., Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Ricke, K. (2016) · Annual Review of Resource Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-100815-095440 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Manoussi, V., & Xepapadeas, A. (2014) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-015-9956-3 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda
Gilmore, E., & Buhaug, H. (2021) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.722 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Solar geoengineering economics: From incredible to inevitable and half‐way back
Harding, A. R., & Moreno‐Cruz, J. (2016) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2016ef000462 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Next steps in geoengineering scenario research: limited deployment scenarios and beyond
Sugiyama, M., Arino, Y., Kosugi, T., Kurosawa, A., & Watanabe, S. (2017) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2017.1323721 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
OPTIMAL CLIMATE POLICY IN 3D: MITIGATION, CARBON REMOVAL, AND SOLAR GEOENGINEERING
Belaia, M., Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Keith, D. W. (2021) · Climate Change Economics · doi:10.1142/s2010007821500081 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate Response to Aerosol Geoengineering: A Multimethod Comparison
Muri, H., Tjiputra, J. F., Otterå, O. H., Adakudlu, M., Lauvset, S. K., Grini, A., Schulz, M., Niemeier, U., & Kristjánsson, J. E. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0620.1 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Gunderson, R., Stuart, D., & Petersen, B. (2018) · New Political Economy · doi:10.1080/13563467.2018.1501356 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Helderop, E., & Grubesic, T. H. (2019) · Ocean & Coastal Management · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.104902 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Collective action and geoengineering
Sandler, T. M. (2017) · The Review of International Organizations · doi:10.1007/s11558-017-9282-3 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Ferraro, A. J., & Griffiths, H. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034012 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Preempting the Second Contradiction: Solar Geoengineering as Spatiotemporal Fix
Surprise, K. (2018) · Annals of the American Association of Geographers · doi:10.1080/24694452.2018.1426435 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Sugiyama, M., Asayama, S., Kosugi, T., Ishii, A., Emori, S., Adachi, J., Akimoto, K., Fujiwara, M., Hasegawa, T., Hibi, Y., et al. (2016) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-016-0376-2 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
The risk of catastrophic climate change: Future energy implications
Moriarty, P., & Honnery, D. (2021) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2021.102728 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Quantifying the Efficiency of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering at Different Altitudes
Lee, W. R., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Tilmes, S. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl104417 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Benduhn, F., Schallock, J., & Lawrence, M. G. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl070701 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Climate experts’ views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts
Dannenberg, A., & Zitzelsberger, S. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0564-z · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Needed: Research Guidelines for Solar Radiation Management
Morgan, M. G., Nordhaus, R. R., & Lieb, P. G. T. (2013) · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Plazzotta, M., Séférian, R., & Douville, H. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001165 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Revisiting the economics of climate change: the role of geoengineering
Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Smulders, S. A. (2016) · Research in Economics · doi:10.1016/j.rie.2016.12.001 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
The Governance of Solar Geoengineering: Managing Climate Change in the Anthropocene
Reynolds, J. L. (2019) · Cited by 28 · see citing works
The potential environmental and climate impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection: a review
Huynh, H. N., & McNeill, V. F. (2024) · Environmental Science: Atmospheres · doi:10.1039/d3ea00134b · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Geoengineering on the Summer Climate Over East Asia
Liu, Z., Lang, X., & Jiang, D. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2021jd035049 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Lockley, A., Mi, Z., & Coffman, D. (2019) · Frontiers of Engineering Management · doi:10.1007/s42524-019-0010-y · Cited by 26 · see citing works
A subpolar-focused stratospheric aerosol injection deployment scenario
Smith, W., Bhattarai, U., MacMartin, D. G., Lee, W., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., & Rice, C. V. (2022) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ac8cd3 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Irvine, P. J., Keith, D. W., & Moore, J. C. (2018) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-12-2501-2018 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Self-citationVisions of Climate Control: Solar Radiation Management in Climate Simulations
Wiertz, T. (2016) · Science, Technology, & Human Values · doi:10.1177/0162243915606524 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Weather and Climate Manipulation as an Optimal Control for Adaptive Dynamical Systems
Soldatenko, S. A. (2017) · Complexity · doi:10.1155/2017/4615072 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Using the jet stream for sustainable airship and balloon transportation of cargo and hydrogen
Hunt, J. D., Byers, E. A., Balogun, A., Filho, W. L., Colling, A. V., Nascimento, A., & Wada, Y. (2019) · Energy Conversion and Management X · doi:10.1016/j.ecmx.2019.100016 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Review of possible very high-altitude platforms for stratospheric aerosol injection
Smith, W., Bhattarai, U., Bingaman, D. C., Mace, J., & Rice, C. V. (2022) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ac4f5d · Cited by 25 · see citing works
An update on engineering issues concerning stratospheric aerosol injection for geoengineering
Lockley, A. J., MacMartin, D. G., & Hunt, H. E. M. (2020) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/aba944 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Green political theory in a climate-changed world: between innovation and restraint
Symons, J., & Karlsson, R. (2015) · Environmental Politics · doi:10.1080/09644016.2015.1008252 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
A Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Lofter Aircraft Concept: Brimstone Angel
Bingaman, D. C., Rice, C. V., Smith, W., & Vogel, P. (2020) · AIAA Scitech 2020 Forum · doi:10.2514/6.2020-0618 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Solar Geoengineering: History, Methods, Governance, Prospects
Parson, E. A., & Keith, D. W. (2024) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-081911 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationHaywood, J., Jones, A., Johnson, B. T. T., & Smith, W. M. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-22-6135-2022 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Climate engineering needs a clean bill of health
Carlson, C. J., & Trisos, C. H. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0294-7 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Xiang, W. (2021) · Socio-Ecological Practice Research · doi:10.1007/s42532-021-00073-8 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Climate Engineering and Abatement: A ‘flat’ Relationship Under Uncertainty
Emmerling, J., & Tavoni, M. (2013) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-016-0104-5 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Climate engineering under deep uncertainty
Manoussi, V., Xepapadeas, A., & Emmerling, J. (2018) · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control · doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2018.06.003 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Pindyck, R. S. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197647349.001.0001 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Arino, Y., Akimoto, K., Sano, F., Homma, T., Oda, J., & Tomoda, T. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1520795113 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Updated and outdated reservations about research into stratospheric aerosol injection
Smith, W., & Henly, C. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03017-z · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Svoboda, T., Irvine, P. J., Callies, D., & Sugiyama, M. (2018) · Journal of Global Ethics · doi:10.1080/17449626.2018.1552180 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Future Earth: declining energy use and economic output
Moriarty, P., & Honnery, D. (2014) · foresight · doi:10.1108/fs-09-2013-0050 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Helwegen, K. G., Wieners, C., Frank, J. E., & Dijkstra, H. A. (2019) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-10-453-2019 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Roshan, E., Khabbazan, M. M., & Held, H. (2018) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-018-0261-9 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Mirage on the Horizon: Geoengineering and Carbon Taxation Without Commitment
Acemoğlu, D., & Rafey, W. (2018) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w24411 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Sun, H., Bourguet, S., Eastham, S., & Keith, D. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl105371 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citation18 Politically relevant solar geoengineering scenarios
Lockley, A. J., Xu, Y., Tilmes, S., Sugiyama, M., Rothman, D. S., & Hindes, A. (2022) · Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling · doi:10.18174/sesmo.18127 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
The national security implications of solar geoengineering: an Australian perspective
Lockyer, A., & Symons, J. (2019) · Australian Journal Of International Affairs · doi:10.1080/10357718.2019.1662768 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Geoengineering: The world's largest control problem
MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Keith, D. W. (2014) · Proceedings of the ... American Control Conference/Proceedings of the American Control Conference · doi:10.1109/acc.2014.6858658 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationMoriarty, P., & Honnery, D. (2017) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-805423-9.00001-6 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Geoengineering and Abatement: A 'Flat' Relationship Under UncertaintyPreprint
Emmerling, J., & Tavoni, M. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2251733 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Solar Geoengineering, Uncertainty, and the Price of Carbon
Heutel, G., Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Shayegh, S. (2015) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w21355 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Smith, W. (2024) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ad4f5c · Cited by 8 · see citing works
If humans design the planet: A call for psychological scientists to engage with climate engineering.
Converse, B. A., Hancock, P. I., Klotz, L. E., Clarens, A. F., & Adams, G. S. (2020) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/amp0000656 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Security of solar radiation management geoengineering
Lockley, A. J. (2019) · Frontiers of Engineering Management · doi:10.1007/s42524-019-0008-5 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Tackling the Risk of Stranded Electricity Assets with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence
Nyangon, J. (2021) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.93488 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
An Economic Anatomy of Optimal Climate PolicyPreprint
Moreno‐Cruz, J., Wagner, G., & Keith, D. W. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3001221 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate Tipping Points and Solar Geoengineering
Heutel, G., Moreno‐Cruz, J., & Shayegh, S. (2015) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w21589 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Drake, H. F., Rivest, R. L., Edelman, A. S., & Deutch, J. M. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac243e · Cited by 8 · see citing works
The economics of geoengineering
Harding, A. R., & Moreno‐Cruz, J. (2018) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-814104-5.00025-9 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
- Authors
- McClellan, J., Keith, D. W., & Apt, J.
- Affiliations
- Aurora Flight Sciences (United States) (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Apt, Jay
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2012-08-30
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 034019
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2163385304
- Cited by
- 173
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 6
- FWCI
- 7.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc-sa
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Aerospace Engineering › Aerospace Engineering and Energy Systems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- solar geoengineering, stratospheric aerosol injection, albedo modification, delivery systems, cost analysis, aircraft, airships, hybrid airship, rockets, firearms, floating platforms, cost estimating relationships, radiative forcing, greenhouse gas forcing
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
