G EOENGINEERING THE C LIMATE: History and Prospect
Abstract
▪ Abstract Geoengineering is the intentional large-scale manipulation of the environment, particularly manipulation that is intended to reduce undesired anthropogenic climate change. The post-war rise of climate and weather modification and the history of U.S. assessments of the CO 2-climate problem is reviewed. Proposals to engineer the climate are shown to be an integral element of this history. Climate engineering is reviewed with an emphasis on recent developments, including low-mass space-based scattering systems for altering the planetary albedo, simulation of the climate's response to albedo modification, and new findings on iron fertilization in oceanic ecosystems. There is a continuum of human responses to the climate problem that vary in resemblance to hard geoengineering schemes such as space-based mirrors. The distinction between geoengineering and mitigation is therefore fuzzy. A definition is advanced that clarifies the distinction between geoengineering and industrial carbon management. Assessment of geoengineering is reviewed under various framings including economics, risk, politics, and environmental ethics. Finally, arguments are presented for the importance of explicit debate about the implications of countervailing measures such as geoengineering.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Solar geoengineering proposals are real proposals for solar radiation management.
“Airships floating through the sky, spraying aerosols; robotic boats crisscrossing the ocean, firing vertical jets of spray; arrays of mirrors carefully positioned in space, micro-adjusted by remote control; these images seem like science fiction, but they are actually real proposals for solar radiation management, commonly called solar geoengineering [375,418,419,728].”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [419]
Cites
Regan, T. (1987) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-009-3331-6_15 · Cited by 1,999 · see citing works
Janetos, A. C., Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., & Moss, R. H. (1997) · Ecology · doi:10.2307/2265930 · Cited by 1,580 · see citing works
Testing the iron hypothesis in ecosystems of the equatorial Pacific Ocean
Martin, J. H., Coale, K., Johnson, K., Fitzwater, S., Gordon, R., Tanner, S., Hunter, C., Elrod, V., Nowicki, J., Coley, T., et al. (1994) · Nature · doi:10.1038/371123a0 · Cited by 1,445 · see citing works
Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions
Brunner, R. D., Gunderson, L., Holling, C. S., & Light, S. S. (1997) · Journal of Wildlife Management · doi:10.2307/3802148 · Cited by 1,114 · see citing works
Carbon dioxide disposal in carbonate minerals
Lackner, K. S., Wendt, C. H., Butt, D. P., Joyce, E. L., & Sharp, D. H. (1995) · Energy · doi:10.1016/0360-5442(95)00071-n · Cited by 1,021 · see citing works
Webster's third new international dictionary of the English language, unabridged
GOVE, P. B. (1971) · Virtual Defense Library (Ministerio de Defensa) · Cited by 951 · see citing works
Barriers and bridges to the renewal of ecosystems and institutions
Ludwig, D. (1996) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/0921-8009(96)84161-9 · Cited by 780 · see citing works
Respect for Nature: A Theory of Environmental Ethics - 25th Anniversary Edition
Taylor, P. W. (2011) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 650 · see citing works
Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change
Bruce, J. P., HoeSung, L., & Haites, E. F. (1996) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · Cited by 605 · see citing works
On geoengineering and the CO2 problem
Marchetti, C. (1977) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/bf00162777 · Cited by 589 · see citing works
Respect for Nature: A Theory of Environmental Ethics
Shostak, S. (2013) · The European Legacy · doi:10.1080/10848770.2013.816151 · Cited by 569 · see citing works
Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change
Cooper, R. N., & Bruce, J. P. (1997) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20047966 · Cited by 428 · see citing works
Widespread Iron Limitation of Phytoplankton in the South Pacific Ocean
Behrenfeld, M. J., & Kolber, Z. (1999) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.283.5403.840 · Cited by 350 · see citing works
Duffey, E. (1988) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/0006-3207(88)90036-5 · Cited by 330 · see citing works
Sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide by increasing ocean alkalinity
Kheshgi, H. S. (1995) · Energy · doi:10.1016/0360-5442(95)00035-f · Cited by 317 · see citing works
Multiple timescales for neutralization of fossil fuel CO <sub>2</sub>
Archer, D., Kheshgi, H., & Maier‐Reimer, E. (1997) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/97gl00168 · Cited by 314 · see citing works
Norton, B. G. (1990) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9781400859238 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
Geoengineering Earth's radiation balance to mitigate CO2‐induced climate change
Bala, G., & Caldeira, K. (2000) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/1999gl006086 · Cited by 295 · see citing works
Historical Perspectives on Climate Change
Fleming, J. R. (1998) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780195078701.001.0001 · Cited by 277 · see citing works
Carbon sequestration research and development
Reichle, D., Houghton, J. T., Kane, B., Ekmann, J., & others, A. (1999) · doi:10.2172/810722 · Cited by 258 · see citing works
The Production of Ice Crystals in a Cloud of Supercooled Water Droplets
Schaefer, V. J. (1946) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.104.2707.457 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
Policy options for stabilizing global climate
Lashof, D. A., Tirpak, D., & Solomon, B. (1990) · doi:10.13140/rg.2.2.30962.32966 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
The Earth's Climate: Past and Future
Berger, A. (1983) · Eos · doi:10.1029/eo064i035p00524-05 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
Worlds in the making; the evolution of the universe,
Arrhenius, S. A., & Borns, H. (n.d.) · University of Michigan Library Repository · Cited by 193 · see citing works
McKay, C. P., Toon, O. B., & Kasting, J. F. (1991) · Nature · doi:10.1038/352489a0 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Fossil Fuels Without CO 2 Emissions
Parson, E. A., & Keith, D. W. (1998) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.282.5391.1053 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Self-citationSagan, C. (1961) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.133.3456.849 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
The economic diplomacy of geoengineering
Schelling, T. C. (1996) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/bf00142578 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Large decrease in ocean-surface CO2 fugacity in response to in situ iron fertilization
Cooper, D. J., Watson, A. J., & Nightingale, P. D. (1996) · Nature · doi:10.1038/383511a0 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Geoengineering: Could? or should? we do it?
Schneider, S. H. (1996) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/bf00142577 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Ways Not to Think about Plastic Trees: New Foundations for Environmental Law
Tribe, L. H. (1974) · The Yale Law Journal · doi:10.2307/795326 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming
Bach, W. (1992) · Environment Science and Policy for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1080/00139157.1992.9930932 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
Restoring the Quality of Our Environment
Eberhardt, L. L. (1967) · Journal of Wildlife Management · doi:10.2307/3797998 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
Can we control the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?
Dyson, F. J. (1977) · Energy · doi:10.1016/0360-5442(77)90033-0 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Terraforming: engineering planetary environments
(1996) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.33-4522 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Volcanic iron, CO2, ocean productivity and climate
Watson, A. J. (1997) · Nature · doi:10.1038/385587b0 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Dynamical limitations on the Antarctic iron fertilization strategy
Peng, T., & Broecker, W. S. (1991) · Nature · doi:10.1038/349227a0 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
The Earth's climate, past and future
Budyko, M. I. (1982) · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Space-based solar shield to offset greenhouse effect
Early, J. T. (1989) · Journal of the British Interplanetary Society · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Global warming and ice ages: I. prospects for physics based modulation of global change
Teller, E., Wood, L. T., & Hyde, R. (1996) · University of North Texas Digital Library (University of North Texas) · Cited by 96 · see citing works
a serious look at geoengineering
Keith, D. W., & Dowlatabadi, H. (1992) · Eos · doi:10.1029/91eo00231 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Self-citationIronEx-I, an in situ iron-enrichment experiment: Experimental design, implementation and results
Coale, K. H., Johnson, K. S., Fitzwater, S. E., et al. (1998) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/s0967-0645(98)00019-8 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Man's impact on the global environment: Assessment and recommendations for action
Sabine, D. B. (1971) · Microchemical Journal · doi:10.1016/0026-265x(71)90102-0 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
ON THE VARIATIONS OF THE CLIMATE OF THE GEOLOGICAL AND HISTORICAL PAST AND THEIR CAUSES
Ekholm, N. (1901) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.49702711702 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Sagan, C. (1973) · Icarus · doi:10.1016/0019-1035(73)90026-2 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Bodansky, D. (1996) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/bf00142579 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Terraforming: Engineering Planetary Environments
Fogg, M. J. (1995) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Beyond Spaceship Earth: Environmental Ethics and the Solar System
Hargrove, E. C. (1987) · DigitalGeorgetown (Georgetown University Library) · doi:10.5840/enviroethics19846113 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Earth Systems Engineering: The Role of Industrial Ecology in an Engineered World
Allenby, B. (1998) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1162/jiec.1998.2.3.73 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Worlds in the Making. The Evolution of the Universe
Arrhenius, S. A., & Borns, H. (1909) · Bulletin of the American Geographical Society · doi:10.2307/200804 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Skill In Forecasting Daily Temperature and Precipitation: Some Experimental Results
Sanders, F. (1973) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1973)054 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Mirrors to halt global warming?
Seifritz, W. (1989) · Nature · doi:10.1038/340603a0 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
(1976) · The United Nations disarmament yearbook · doi:10.18356/286250cf-en · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: Some Current Problems
Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1971) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1971)052 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Climate engineering a review of aerosol approaches to changing the global energy balance
Dickinson, R. E. (1996) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/bf00142576 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Carbon-Nitrogen-Sulfur: Human Interference in Grand Biospheric Cycles
Smil, V. (2012) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Modifying Weather on a Large Scale
Wexler, H. (1958) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.128.3331.1059 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Smil, V. (1985) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-8839-5 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Seidel, S., & Keyes, D. L. (1983) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Green, F. (1977) · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Monastersky, R. (1995) · Science News · doi:10.2307/4018225 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Final Report of the Advisory Committee on Weather Control
(1958) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477-39.11.583 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Long-range weather prediction and prevention of climate catastrophes: a status report
Caldeira, K., Caravan, G., Govindasamy, B., et al. (1999) · OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Controlling the Weather A Study of Law and Regulatory Procedures
Taubenfeld, H. J. (1970) · Cited by 4 · see citing works
The Atmospheric Sciences 1961–1971
Petterssen, S. (1962) · Weatherwise · doi:10.1080/00431672.1962.9941080 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Engineering change in global climate
Schneider, S. H. (1996) · Forum for applied research and public policy · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma?
Crutzen, P. J. (2006) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y · Cited by 1,541 · see citing works
Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
Minx, J. C., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9b · Cited by 865 · see citing works
An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols
Rasch, P. J., Tilmes, S., Turco, R. P., Robock, A., Oman, L., Chen, C.-C. (., Stenchikov, G. L., & Garcia, R. R. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0131 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals
Lawrence, M. G., Schäfer, S., Muri, H., Scott, V., Oschlies, A., Vaughan, N. E., Boucher, O., Schmidt, H., Haywood, J., & Scheffran, J. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05938-3 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone
Heckendorn, P., Weisenstein, D., Fueglistaler, S., Luo, B. P., Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Thomason, L. W., & Peter, T. (2009) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045108 · Cited by 254 · see citing works
Assessing Transformation Pathways
(2015) · Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415416.012 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment
Smith, W., & Wagner, G. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Tackling climate change with machine learning
Rolnick, D., Donti, P. L., Kaack, L. H., Kochanski, K., Lacoste, A., Sankaran, K., Ross, A. S., Milojevic-Dupont, N., Jaques, N., Waldman-Brown, A., et al. (2023) · ACM Computing Surveys · doi:10.1145/3485128 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
Cost analysis of stratospheric albedo modification delivery systems
McClellan, J., Keith, D. W., & Apt, J. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034019 · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Self-citationPublic understanding of solar radiation management
Mercer, A. M., Keith, D. W., & Sharp, J. D. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044006 · Cited by 160 · see citing works
Self-citationMitigation deterrence and the ”moral hazard" of solar radiation management
McLaren, D. (2016) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2016ef000445 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Horton, J. B., & Reynolds, J. L. (2016) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/viv013 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering could alter the high-latitude seasonal cycle
Jiang, J., Cao, L., MacMartin, D. G., Simpson, I. R., Kravitz, B., Cheng, W., Visioni, D., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., & Mills, M. J. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl085758 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse
Baum, S. D., Maher, T. M., & Haqq-Misra, J. (2013) · Environment Systems & Decisions · doi:10.1007/s10669-012-9429-y · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk
Daniel, K., Litterman, R., & Wagner, G. (2016) · doi:10.3386/w22795 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Review of geoengineering approaches to mitigating climate change
Zhang, Z., Moore, J. C., Huisingh, D., & Zhao, Y. (2015) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.09.076 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
The ethics of negative emissions
Lenzi, D. (2018) · Global Sustainability · doi:10.1017/sus.2018.5 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
McCormack, C. G., Born, W., Irvine, P. J., Achterberg, E. P., Amano, T., Ardron, J., Foster, P. N., Gattuso, J.-P., Hawkins, S. J., Hendy, E., et al. (2016) · Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences · doi:10.1080/1943815x.2016.1159578 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Highly decentralized solar geoengineering
Reynolds, J. L., & Wagner, G. (2020) · Environmental Politics · doi:10.1080/09644016.2019.1648169 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Visions of Climate Control: Solar Radiation Management in Climate Simulations
Wiertz, T. (2016) · Science, Technology, & Human Values · doi:10.1177/0162243915606524 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Vattioni, S., Weber, R., Feinberg, A., Stenke, A., Dykema, J. A., Luo, B., Kelesidis, G. A., Bruun, C. A., Sukhodolov, T., Keutsch, F. N., et al. (2024) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Stratospheric transport and tropospheric sink of solar geoengineering aerosol: a Lagrangian analysis
Sun, H., Bourguet, S., Luan, L., & Keith, D. (2024) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00664-8 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationHack, M., McNeill, V. F., Steingart, D., & Wagner, G. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-20447-2 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
- Authors
- Keith, D. W.
- Affiliations
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Keith, David W.
- ORCID
- Keith, David W.
- Venue
- Annual Review of Energy and the Environment
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2000-11
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 245-284
- ISSN
- 1056-3466 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2048911136
- Cited by
- 567
- References
- 67
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 53 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 37 · 2015: 24 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 43 · 2012: 33
- FWCI
- 3.29
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Energy and the Environment (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- geoengineering, solar radiation management, planetary albedo, iron fertilization, ocean carbon sequestration, climate change mitigation, history of climate science, environmental ethics, risk assessment, climate policy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review