Family-GWAS reveals effects of environment and mating on genetic associations
Open accessAbstract
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have discovered thousands of replicable genetic associations, guiding drug target discovery and powering genetic prediction of human phenotypes and diseases. However, genetic associations can be affected by gene-environment correlations and non-random mating, which can lead to biased inferences in downstream analyses. Family-based GWAS (FGWAS) uses the natural experiment of random assignment of genotype within families to separate out the contribution of direct genetic effects (DGEs) — causal effects of alleles in an individual on an individual — from other factors contributing to genetic associations. Here, we report results from an FGWAS meta-analysis of 34 phenotypes from 17 cohorts. We found evidence that factors uncorrelated with DGEs make substantial contributions to genetic associations for 27 phenotypes, with population stratification confounding — a form of gene-environment correlation — likely the major cause. By estimating SNP heritability and genetic correlations using DGEs, we found evidence that assortative mating has led to overestimation of SNP heritability for 5 phenotypes and overestimation of the degree of shared genetic effects (pleiotropy) between 22 pairs of phenotypes. Polygenic predictors constructed from DGEs are particularly useful for studying natural selection, assortative mating, and indirect genetic effects (effects of relatives’ genes mediated through the family environment). We validate our meta-analysis results by predicting phenotypes in hold-out samples using polygenic predictors constructed from DGEs, achieving statistically significant out-of-sample prediction for 24 phenotypes with little attenuation of predictive power within-families. We provide FGWAS summary statistics for 34 phenotypes that can be used for downstream analyses. Our study provides both a template for performing FGWAS and an argument for its value for debiasing inferences and understanding the impact of environment and mating patterns.
Verified 2026-10-29 · 2 references not checked yet
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Family-based GWAS meta-analysis of 34 phenotypes across 17 cohorts separates direct genetic effects (DGEs) from confounding due to gene-environment correlation and non-random mating. It finds substantial population-stratification confounding in standard GWAS, assortative-mating inflation of heritability and genetic correlations, and validates DGE-based polygenic predictors in hold-out samples.
Key findings
- Factors uncorrelated with DGEs make substantial contributions to genetic associations for 27 phenotypes; estimated contributions were 10.7% (S.E.=0.6%) for height, 10.2% (S.E.=1.0%) for BMI, 48.3% (S.E.=3.2%) for educational attainment, and 58.7% (S.E.=7.0%) for depressive symptoms, with population stratification likely the major cause.
- The genome-wide correlation between DGEs and population effects was below 1 for 27/30 phenotypes (FDR<0.05); LDSC-estimated correlations were significantly below 1 for height, myopia, hypertension, allergic rhinitis, depressive symptoms, neuroticism, self-rated health, HDL cholesterol, and educational attainment.
- Assortative mating led to overestimation of SNP heritability for 5 phenotypes (age at first birth in women, educational attainment, depression, ever-smoker, height) and overestimation of genetic correlations/pleiotropy for 22 trait pairs; e.g., the EA–BMI genetic correlation fell from −0.288 (S.E. 0.026) using population effects to −0.068 (S.E. 0.045) using DGEs.
- DGE-based polygenic predictors had statistically significant out-of-sample prediction for 24 phenotypes, with the height DGE PGI achieving partial R² 17.9% (95% C.I. 15.8%−20.1%) and generally little within-family attenuation.
Methods
- FGWAS meta-analysis of 34 phenotypes from 17 cohorts: 16 predominantly European-ancestry cohorts meta-analyzed together, and the China Kadoorie Biobank analyzed separately due to LD differences. Missing parental genotypes were imputed with snipar; variants required INFO ≥ 0.99, and phenotypes with DGE effective sample size below 5000 were excluded, leaving 30 phenotypes for main analyses.
- Cohort-level FGWAS estimates of DGEs, non-transmitted coefficients, and population effects were combined using fixed-effect multivariate meta-analysis, yielding joint sampling variance-covariance matrices for downstream analyses.
- Downstream analyses used LDSC and GenomicSEM for SNP heritability, genetic correlations, and functional enrichment; polygenic prediction used PRS-CS weights and snipar family-based PGI regressions in the Millennium Cohort Study (primary) and UK Biobank (secondary).
Limitations
- Stated: DGE effective sample sizes remain on the order of 10⁴ to 10⁵, an order of magnitude lower than large GWAS meta-analyses; analyses were restricted to common variants (MAF >1%); China Kadoorie Biobank results need confirmation in additional Chinese and East Asian cohorts; functional enrichment power was limited for educational attainment DGEs; some phenotypes were excluded for low DGE effective sample size.
- Stated: FGWAS requires parental or sibling genotypes, and future biobanks need family-based sampling to realize its potential.
- Evident from the text: the study includes only one East Asian cohort, so cross-ancestry generalization is limited; several key comparisons rely on LDSC assumptions and imputed parental genotypes, and the paper notes that confounding may still affect DGE PGIs under assortative mating.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Cites
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Claims the paper makes
109 of 128 cited sources checked · 56 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Young et al. presented an approach that enables sibling pair data, parent-offspring pair data, and complete parental genotype data to be jointly analyzed through imputation of missing parental genotypes.
“Young et al. presented an alternative approach that enables sibling pair data, parent-offspring pair data, and complete parental genotype data to be jointly analyzed in a unified analytical framework through imputation of missing parental genotypes3,20.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked - Premisereasoning
DGEs include causal effects of the focal variant and correlated variants on the same chromosome.
“As in GWAS, variants are analyzed one at a time, so DGEs include causal effects of the focal variant and correlated variants on the same chromosome14–16.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked- cites [14] source
- cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
- cites [16] Veller, C. & Coop, G. Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding. PLoS Biol. (2024). source
- Premisenone given
FGWAS uses the natural experiment of random assignment of genotype within families to separate out the contribution of direct genetic effects (DGEs) from other factors contributing to genetic associations.
“Family-based GWAS (FGWAS) uses the natural experiment of random assignment of genotype within families to separate out the contribution of direct genetic effects (DGEs) — causal effects of alleles in an individual on an individual — from other factors contributing to genetic associations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim5 of 5 sources checked- cites [3] source
- cites [9] source
- cites [14] source
- cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
- cites [16] Veller, C. & Coop, G. Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding. PLoS Biol. (2024). source
- Premisecitation
Although population structure can introduce bias into imputed parental genotypes, the resulting bias in DGE estimates is negligible for samples of relatively homogeneous genetic ancestry typically used in GWAS.
“Although population structure can introduce bias into imputed parental genotypes, the resulting bias in DGE estimates is negligible for the samples of relatively homogeneous genetic ancestry typically used in GWAS3,20.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [3] source
The Methods section, “Effect of population structure” (page not available), says population structure biases imputed parental genotypes and can bias direct-effect estimates. It says that for relatively homogeneous samples this bias is *likely* negligible at the individual-SNP level; the claim states negligibility without that uncertainty or scope limitation. The passage also does not establish that such samples are typically used in GWAS. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [20] source
- Premisecitation
Estimates of DGEs are less precise than estimates of population effects because they only use within-family genotype variation, which is half of the variation in a random-mating population.
“Furthermore, even when parental genotypes are available, estimates of DGEs are less precise than estimates of population effects because they only use within-family genotype variation, which is half of the variation in a random-mating population3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] source
The Main section says that random segregation within families enables unbiased estimates of direct genetic effects, and the Results section on genome-wide analyses says power to analyze individual-SNP direct effects was limited (page numbers unavailable). But the paper does not state the claimed comparison with population-effect precision or that within-family genotype variation is half of population variation. Its reported one-half effective sample size compares parent–offspring pairs with complete parental-genotype data, not direct-effect estimates with population-effect estimates. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- The authors state this as an assumption: Under random mating, the population effect βl equals the sum of DGE δl and average NTC αl (βl=δl+αl), and deviations from this relationship are negligible for samples with low levels of structure.
- Premisecitation
Confounding in GWAS can cause biases in downstream applications, including estimation of heritability and genetic correlation, Mendelian Randomization analyses, and inferences of natural selection.
“Confounding can cause biases in downstream applications, including: estimation of heritability and genetic correlation6,7, Mendelian Randomization analyses13, and inferences of natural selection4,5.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim4 of 5 sources checked- cites [6] source
The Results passage concerns AF2 peptide–protein docking and interface hotspots, not GWAS confounding. Searches for the claim’s wording and for GWAS, heritability, genetic correlation, Mendelian randomization, and natural selection found no passage addressing the claimed downstream biases. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [7] 2022, Cross-trait assortative mating is widespread and inflates genetic correlation estimates, Science
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [13] source
The Introduction discusses leucine sensing and mTORC1 signaling, while the Methods and Results describe muscle experiments; no page numbers are available in our copy. Searches for GWAS confounding, heritability, genetic correlation, Mendelian randomization, and natural selection found no passage addressing the claimed downstream biases. (LLM, conf=0.79)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [4] source
The Materials and methods passages on multivariate pattern analysis concern fMRI representations of motor sequences, not genetic association studies. Searches for GWAS confounding, heritability, genetic correlation, Mendelian randomization, and natural selection found no passage addressing the claim in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [5] source
The citation is attached to the claim about Mendelian Randomization analyses. The Materials and methods passages discuss fMRI multivariate analysis and statistical testing, not GWAS confounding or Mendelian Randomization; searches for those terms found no relevant passage in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Because different chromosomes segregate independently during meiosis, DGEs are free from confounding that arises in GWAS due to correlations with genetic variants on other chromosomes, which are caused by non-random mating, including population structure and assortative mating.
“Because different chromosomes segregate independently during meiosis, DGEs are also free from the confounding that arises in GWAS due to correlations with genetic variants on other chromosomes,15,16 which are caused by non-random mating, including population structure and assortative mating (AM).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
- cites [16] Veller, C. & Coop, G. Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding. PLoS Biol. (2024). source
- Premisecitation
sib-GWAS is biased by IGEs between siblings.
“Because genotype data on sibling pairs is more commonly available than complete genotype data on parents, sib-GWAS has been a popular approach9,13, although it is biased by IGEs between siblings3,15,16.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked- cites [3] source
- cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
- cites [16] Veller, C. & Coop, G. Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding. PLoS Biol. (2024). source
- Premisecitation
Howe et al. produced sib-GWAS estimates of DGEs on 24 phenotypes from a meta-analysis of European genetic ancestry cohorts.
“The sib-GWAS approach was used by Howe et al.9, which produced sib-GWAS estimates of DGEs on 24 phenotypes from a meta-analysis of European genetic ancestry cohorts.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [9] source
The Results describe within-sibship GWAS, and the Main figure caption says GWAS data from 18 European-ancestry cohorts were meta-analyzed. However, Methods > Meta-analysis says the meta-analyses covered 25 phenotypes, not 24. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisereasoning
Because segregation of chromosomes during meiosis is independent of environment, estimates of DGEs are free from confounding due to gene-environment correlation, including from IGEs and population-stratification.
“Because the segregation of chromosomes during meiosis is independent of environment, estimates of DGEs are free from confounding due to gene-environment correlation, including from IGEs and population-stratification3,9,15,16.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim4 of 4 sources checked- cites [3] source
The Main section says random segregation during meiosis enables parent–offspring trio analyses to obtain unbiased, stratification-free estimates of direct genetic effects. But it also warns that sibling-based estimates can be biased by indirect genetic effects from siblings; the unqualified claim that estimates of direct genetic effects are free of this confounding is too broad. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [9] source
The Main text (Fig. 2; page not provided) says within-sibship estimates use the component of genotype arising from segregation at meiosis and are not influenced by demographic effects, including population stratification, or parental indirect genetic effects. But it explicitly says sibling indirect genetic effects are not controlled for, so the claim that estimates of direct genetic effects are free from confounding by indirect genetic effects generally is too broad. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
“The Natural Experiment of Mendelian Segregation” says allele transmission is random and that controlling for parental genotypes isolates variation that gives the genetic-effect estimate a causal interpretation. “The Challenge of Causal Inference” identifies population stratification and parental genetic effects as sources of gene–environment correlation. The claim omits the need for an appropriate family-based analysis and states freedom from confounding categorically, whereas the paper also notes caveats to the segregation-based approach. The indexed passages have section labels but no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [16] Veller, C. & Coop, G. Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding. PLoS Biol. (2024). source
The Discussion says within-family estimates avoid environmental confounding across families in the absence of G×E interactions because transmission is effectively randomized with respect to family environment. But it says these estimates can retain residual genetic confounding and sibling indirect effects; the “Sibling indirect effects” section explicitly shows that such effects can bias estimates of direct genetic effects. The unqualified claim that the estimates are free from confounding, including indirect genetic effects, overstates the source. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The imputation approach gives consistent and unbiased estimates of DGEs provided that imputed parental genotypes are unbiased.
“The imputation approach has been proven to give consistent and unbiased estimates of DGEs provided that the imputed parental genotypes are unbiased3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
Even direct genetic effect PGIs may be correlated with genetic factors not directly captured by the PGI or environmental factors, leading to confounding in standard PGI analysis.
“Even DGE PGIs may be correlated with genetic factors not directly captured by the PGI or environmental factors, leading to confounding in standard PGI analysis23.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [23] source
- Interpretationown data
This finding is consistent with a greater contribution from confounding factors to the predictive power of population-effect-based educational attainment PGIs.
“This finding is consistent with a greater contribution from confounding factors to the predictive power of (standard-GWAS derived) population-effect-based EA PGIs17,23.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
Some, but not all, methods using genome-wide summary statistics have been shown to be particularly vulnerable to biased inferences due to uncorrected population stratification confounding.
“Some, but not all, of these methods have been shown to be particularly vulnerable to biased inferences due to uncorrected population stratification confounding: for example, measuring the strength of AM23, assessing evidence for IGEs11,42,43, assessing evidence for polygenic selection using ancient and modern DNA4,5,9, and Mendelian Randomisation13.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim6 of 7 sources checked- cites [23] source
- cites [11] source
- cites [42] source
The ‘Effect of Population Subdivision’ section (page unavailable) shows that population subdivision can create a misleading genetic-nurturing signal unless corrected. The ‘Effect of Assortative Mating’ section treats assortative mating as a form of subdivision, but does not show that measuring the strength of assortative mating is particularly vulnerable to uncorrected population stratification—the example to which this citation is attached. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [43] source
The Introduction (page unavailable) says population stratification can spuriously correlate genotype with environment, confounding genotype–outcome associations, and explains that the extended-pedigree design controls for subtle stratification when estimating indirect genetic effects. This supports the concern about biased IGE inference, but the paper does not establish the broader comparison that some, but not all, methods using genome-wide summary statistics are particularly vulnerable. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [4] source
The Materials and methods section discusses fMRI-based motor-sequence analyses, including statistical correction for brain-imaging data, not genome-wide summary statistics. Searches for population-stratification confounding, Mendelian randomisation, indirect genetic effects, and polygenic selection found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [5] source
The Materials and methods passages on multivariate pattern analysis concern fMRI measures of motor-sequence representations, not genome-wide summary statistics. Searches for population stratification, polygenic selection, indirect genetic effects, and Mendelian randomization found no passage addressing the claimed vulnerability to confounding. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [9] source
The Main section (page unavailable) says population stratification can affect GWAS associations and that these associations can affect downstream Mendelian randomization (MR). The within-sibship MR Results (page unavailable) find some differences from population-based MR, but attribute possible distortion to demographic and indirect genetic effects or other factors—not specifically to uncorrected population stratification. The paper therefore supports MR's susceptibility to bias, but not the narrower causal attribution in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
FGWAS and related methods present an opportunity to analyze genetically diverse samples in a way that is not susceptible to population stratification confounding.
“FGWAS and related methods present an opportunity to analyze genetically diverse samples in a way that is not susceptible to population stratification confounding20”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] source
- Interpretationcitation
The influence of natural selection is likely strongest for age at first birth in women and number of children since these traits are directly related to evolutionary fitness.
“The influence of natural selection is likely strongest for age at first birth in women and number of children since these traits are directly related to evolutionary fitness29.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] source
The Results and Significance passages (page unavailable) link age at first child and number of children to an educational-attainment polygenic score in Icelanders; the association with age at first child is stronger in women than in men. The paper also relates earlier childbearing and more children to evolutionary fitness. It does not establish the broader claim that natural selection is strongest for these traits compared with other traits. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
Such confounding may reduce prediction ability in other contexts, such as predicting across ancestries and within families.
“such confounding may reduce prediction ability in other contexts, such as predicting across ancestries and within families8,20.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [8] source
The Introduction’s “Portability of phenotypic prediction” section says polygenic scores predict less well across ancestry groups and that indirect effects and assortative mating may affect how well predictions generalize. “Using family genotype data” explains that sibling differences remove several sources of confounding, but the paper does not explicitly say that confounding reduces predictive ability within families. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [20] source
The Discussion (page unavailable) says confounding biases polygenic scores and contributes to reduced predictive accuracy across genetic ancestries. The Introduction discusses using family-based methods to remove confounding, but the passages in our copy do not say that confounding reduces predictive ability within families. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
If the average coefficient on parental PGIs differs from zero, this shows that the PGI's predictive power derives from factors other than direct genetic effects of the variants used in the PGI and those in local LD with them.
“If, in FPGI analysis, the average coefficient on the parental PGIs (average NTC of the PGI) differs from zero, this shows that the PGI’s predictive power derives from factors other than DGEs of the variants used in the PGI and those in local LD with them15.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
In the section labeled “99” (page number not provided), the paper derives a parental-PGI coefficient that depends on both parental and own genetic effects, and notes that assortative mating can make own genetic effects contribute to it. This supports caution against interpreting a nonzero coefficient as solely a parental effect, but the cited passages do not establish the claimed categorical inference that it proves predictive power comes from beyond the direct effects of variants in the PGI and those in local LD. (LLM, conf=0.80)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisereasoning
Genome-wide summary statistics on DGEs from FGWAS can be used as inputs to LDSC, giving SNP heritability estimates that remove contributions from IGEs, population stratification, and inflation due to AM, bringing them closer to traditional definitions of heritability.
“Genome-wide summary statistics on DGEs from FGWAS can be used instead as inputs to LDSC9, thereby giving SNP heritability estimates that remove contributions from IGEs, population stratification, and inflation due to AM, bringing them closer to traditional definitions of heritability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [9] source
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
The residual confounding may be because principal components derived from common variants do not effectively capture recent structure in the population.
“This may be because the principal components derived from common variants do not effectively capture recent structure in the population10.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [10] source
- Premisecitation
Population-effect estimates include contributions from indirect genetic effects, population stratification, and assortative mating.
“population-effect estimates include contributions from IGEs, population stratification, and AM.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [7] 2022, Cross-trait assortative mating is widespread and inflates genetic correlation estimates, Science
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [8] source
- Interpretationcitation
DGE-based SNP heritability estimates do not account for the increase in genetic variance due to AM-induced correlations between causal alleles, leading to a downward bias similar to other family-based heritability estimates.
“However, DGE-based SNP heritability estimates do not account for the increase in genetic variance due to AM-induced correlations between causal alleles, leading to a downward bias similar to other family-based heritability estimates such as classical twin designs and relatedness disequilibrium regression23,36.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [23] source
- cites [36] source
The Introduction says assortative mating correlates causal variants and increases genetic variance. Results > Adjusting parameter estimates for assortative mating says classical twin and full-sib estimates do not equal equilibrium heritability under assortative mating, and the Discussion extends this interpretation to relatedness disequilibrium regression. The paper does not establish that DGE-based SNP heritability specifically excludes that added variance or is downward-biased for that reason; it describes a separate limitation of SNP heritability, imperfect tagging of causal variants. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Cross-trait assortative mating is expected to have a negligible influence on genetic correlations estimated using direct genetic effects because the vast majority of correlations between causal alleles induced by cross-trait assortative mating are cross-chromosome and therefore do not contribute to direct genetic effect estimates.
“xAM is expected to have a negligible influence on genetic correlations estimated using DGEs because the vast majority of correlations between causal alleles induced by xAM are cross-chromosome and therefore do not contribute to DGE estimates14–16.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked- cites [14] source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [16] Veller, C. & Coop, G. Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding. PLoS Biol. (2024). source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
All phenotypes displaying statistically detectable differences in SNP heritability are known to be affected by assortative mating.
“Since all the phenotypes displaying statistically detectable differences in SNP heritability are known to be affected by AM31”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] 2023, Evidence of correlations between human partners based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of 22 traits and UK Biobank analysis of 133 traits, Nat. Hum. Behav source
The Results (Partner Correlations in the UK Biobank; page unavailable) report significant partner correlations for 118 of 133 adequately powered traits, and the Discussion says assortative mating may bias SNP-heritability estimates for many traits. The paper does not identify the phenotypes with statistically detectable differences in SNP heritability or establish that all of those phenotypes are affected by assortative mating. It also cautions that observed partner similarity can arise through mechanisms other than assortative mating. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
LDSC will overestimate SNP heritability when applied to population effects that are inflated due to AM.
“In contrast, LDSC will overestimate SNP heritability when applied to population effects that are inflated due to AM6.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] source
The Results section discusses AlphaFold2 predictions of peptide–protein structures, not SNP heritability. Searches for LDSC, assortative mating, and linkage disequilibrium score regression found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
Such confounding is expected under assortative mating and thus likely affects height and education-related direct genetic effect PGIs when analyzing relevant outcomes.
“although such confounding is expected under AM and thus likely affects height and education-related DGE PGIs (when analyzing relevant outcomes)16,23.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
LDSC was designed for GWAS summary statistics on population effects derived from samples of unrelated individuals.
“Since LDSC was designed for GWAS summary statistics on population effects derived from samples of unrelated individuals, we use the effective sample size for the required sample size input3,9.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [3] source
The Results section describes population effects as estimates from standard GWAS, and Methods > GWASs in unrelated individuals describes an unrelated GWAS sample. The paper does not state that LDSC was designed for summary statistics from such samples; Methods > IBD inference mentions LD Score Regression software only as a way to calculate LD scores. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [9] source
The Methods section ('Applying LDSC to within-sibship data'; page unavailable) says LDSC uses GWAS summary data, and the Discussion (page unavailable) describes conventional population GWAS as sampling unrelated individuals. The paper does not state that LDSC was designed specifically for summary statistics from unrelated individuals; it also applies LDSC to within-sibship data. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The population effect estimated from β can differ substantially from δ+α when there is assortative mating.
“Unlike in the single variant case, the population effect estimated from β can differ substantially from δ+α — where α is the average NTC for the PGI — when there is AM3,7.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [3] source
- cites [7] 2022, Cross-trait assortative mating is widespread and inflates genetic correlation estimates, Science
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
At equilibrium, β=δ+(1+rpar)α, where rpar is the correlation between parents' PGIs.
“At equilibrium, β=δ+(1+rpar)α, where rpar is the correlation between parents’ PGIs23.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [23] source
- Findingown data
There is substantial population stratification bias in population-effect estimates across a broad range of phenotypes.
“We find evidence that there is substantial population stratification bias in population-effect estimates across a broad range of phenotypes and that assortative mating biases estimates of SNP heritability and genetic correlations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Polygenic predictors constructed from DGEs achieve statistically significant out-of-sample prediction for 24 phenotypes with little attenuation of predictive power within-families.
“We validate our meta-analysis results by predicting phenotypes in hold-out samples using polygenic predictors constructed from DGEs, achieving statistically significant out-of-sample prediction for 24 phenotypes with little attenuation of predictive power within-families.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Standard imputation from reference panels did not preserve the relationships between siblings' genotypes implied by Mendelian Laws, except for the highest quality imputed variants.
“We found that, except for the highest quality imputed variants, standard imputation from reference panels did not preserve the relationships between siblings’ genotypes implied by Mendelian Laws, implying that only the highest quality imputed variants are suitable for FGWAS or sib-GWAS (Supplementary Note Section 1 and Supplementary Figure 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Factors uncorrelated with DGEs make substantial contributions to genetic associations for 27 phenotypes.
“We found evidence that factors uncorrelated with DGEs make substantial contributions to genetic associations for 27 phenotypes, with population stratification confounding — a form of gene-environment correlation — likely the major cause.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
We found less attenuation of the predictive power of direct genetic effect-based PGIs within-family than for population-effect-based PGIs.
“we found less attenuation of the predictive power of DGE-based PGIs within-family than for population-effect-based PGIs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Direct genetic effects and population effects have correlations below one for 26 phenotypes.
“we found that DGEs and population effects have correlations below one for 26 phenotypes”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Genetic correlation estimates were statistically different for 22 trait pairs (FDR < 0.05, two-sided test).
“The genetic correlation estimates were statistically different for 22 trait pairs (FDR < 0.05, two-sided test).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
LDSC SNP heritability estimates from direct genetic effects were lower than from population effects for five phenotypes.
“we found that LDSC SNP heritability estimates from DGEs were lower than from population effects for five phenotypes”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The relationship between cross-mate phenotype correlations and genetic correlations is stronger for population-effect genetic correlations than for direct genetic effect correlations.
“the fact that the relationship is stronger for population-effect genetic correlations is evidence that xAM contributes to population-effect genetic correlation estimates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The direct and population effects of the direct genetic effect PGIs are generally similar.
“The direct and population effects of the DGE PGIs are generally similar (Figure 5)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The China Kadoorie Biobank results are opposite to the results from the European ancestry meta-analysis.
“the opposite of the results from the European ancestry meta-analysis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In the China Kadoorie Biobank, SNP heritability from direct genetic effects was higher than from population effects for phenotypes including BMI, educational attainment, and height.
“including higher SNP heritability from DGEs than from population effects for phenotypes including BMI, EA, and height”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Univariate and multivariate meta-analysis estimates of direct genetic effects were highly correlated (r=0.999) for educational attainment.
“we found that univariate and multivariate meta-analysis estimates of DGEs were highly correlated (r=0.999) for EA (Supplementary Figure 3)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Functional enrichment estimates from direct genetic effects and population effects showed no discernable differences for educational attainment and height.
“finding no discernable differences between enrichment estimates from DGE and population effects for either phenotypes (Supplementary Figures 8–9)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Direct genetic effect PGIs had out-of-sample predictive power statistically distinguishable from zero for 24 phenotypes (FDR < 0.05, one-sided test).
“DGE PGIs had out-of-sample predictive power statistically distinguishable from zero for 24 phenotypes (FDR < 0.05, one-sided test).”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“Our summary statistics enabled construction of DGE PGIs whose out-of-sample predictive power is statistically distinguishable from zero for 24 phenotypes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
- Findingown data
In the European ancestry meta-analysis, 29 phenotypes had LDSC intercepts detectably above one (FDR<0.05, one-sided test) using population-effect summary statistics.
“We found that 29 phenotypes had intercepts detectably above one (FDR<0.05, one-sided test) when using population-effect summary statistics (Supplementary Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A general attenuation of genetic correlations between educational attainment and other traits is observed when direct genetic effects are used in place of population effects.
“A general attenuation of genetic correlations between EA and other traits is observed when DGEs are used in place of population effects (Supplementary Figure 11)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
We found statistically significant positive estimates for the correlation between DGEs and average NTCs using LDSC for height and EA.
“We found statistically significant positive estimates for height and EA (Supplementary Table 3 and 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Using DGE summary statistics, 15 phenotypes had LDSC intercepts detectably above one (FDR<0.05, one-sided test).
“Using DGE summary statistics, we found 15 phenotypes with intercepts detectably above one (FDR<0.05, one-sided test).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cross-mate phenotypic correlation estimates predict differences between population and direct genetic effect genetic correlations (R2 = 6.53%, 95% CI: 3.50% - 10.07%).
“cross-mate phenotypic correlation estimates predict differences between population and DGE genetic correlations (R2 = 6.53%, 95% CI: 3.50% – 10.07%; Supplementary Figure 13).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For population-effect-based PGIs, PGI population effects were substantially larger than PGI direct effects for educational attainment, age at first birth in women, and household income.
“for population-effect-based PGIs, PGI population effects were substantially larger than PGI direct effects for EA, age at first birth in women, and household income (Supplementary Figure 14).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cross-mate phenotypic correlations explain substantial variation in population-effect genetic correlation estimates (R2 = 40.77%, 95% CI: 34.44% - 46.52%).
“cross-mate phenotypic correlations (a measure of xAM) explain substantial variation in both population-effect genetic correlations estimates (R2 = 40.77%, 95% CI: 34.44% – 46.52%)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Quite low correlations (<0.75) were estimated for 13 phenotypes including diastolic blood pressure, neuroticism, and depression.
“with quite low correlations (<0.75) estimated for 13 phenotypes including diastolic blood pressure, neuroticism, and depression”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For educational attainment, the SNP heritability estimated from population effects is around 14%.
“both indicated that the SNP heritability estimated from DGEs is around 7% compared to around 14% estimated from population effects.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
These results differ from those derived from the sib-GWAS by Howe et al., which reported that DGEs were smaller than population effects for number of children, depressive symptoms, EA, cognitive ability, ever-smoker, and height.
“These results also differ from those derived from the sib-GWAS by Howe et al., which reported that DGEs were smaller than population effects for number of children, depressive symptoms, EA, cognitive ability, ever-smoker, and height.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Howe et al.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Findingown data
SNP heritability estimates from DGEs are smaller than from population effects (FDR<0.05, two-sided test) for age at first birth in women, EA, depression, whether an individual has ever smoked, and height.
“SNP heritability estimates from DGEs are smaller than from population effects (FDR<0.05, two-sided test, Methods, Supplementary Table 5) for age at first birth in women, EA, depression, whether an individual has ever smoked, and height.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Functional enrichment analyses using stratified LDSC did not display obvious differences when applied to direct genetic effects and population effects.
“This includes functional enrichment analyses using stratified LDSC, which did not display obvious differences when applied to DGEs and population effects (Supplementary Figures 8–9).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The correlation between DGEs and population effects could not be estimated for cigarettes-per-day, hypertension, and individual income due to negative estimates of the variance in DGEs and/or population effects.
“The correlation could not be estimated for the remaining 3 phenotypes (cigarettes-per-day, hypertension, and individual income) due to negative estimates of the variance in DGEs and/or population effects.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Cross-mate phenotypic correlations explain substantial variation in direct genetic effect correlation estimates (R2 = 15.37%, 95% CI: 10.41% - 20.71%).
“and DGE correlation estimates (R2 = 15.37%, 95% CI: 10.41% – 20.71%).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The population-effect-based educational attainment PGI exhibited much greater attenuation of the PGI's prediction power within-family than the direct genetic effect educational attainment PGI.
“The population-effect-based EA PGI exhibited much greater attenuation of the PGI’s prediction power within-family (i.e. much smaller direct effect than population effect) than the DGE EA PGI.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For many pairs of phenotypes, genetic correlations are similar whether estimated using direct genetic effects or population effects.
“However, for many pairs of phenotypes, genetic correlations are similar whether estimated using DGEs or population effects.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There is little attenuation in genetic correlations with BMI, except for BMI-educational attainment.
“For example, there is little attenuation in genetic correlations with BMI, except for BMI-EA (Supplementary Figure 12).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The SNP heritability from direct genetic effects for educational attainment (7.2%) is larger than the estimate by Howe et al. (4%, S.E. 0.8%).
“Our estimate of the SNP heritability from DGEs for EA, 7.2% (S.E. 0.8%), was larger than estimated by Howe et al., 4% (S.E. 0.8%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Howe et al.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Findingown data
Height, myopia, hypertension, allergic rhinitis, depressive symptoms, neuroticism, self-rated health, HDL cholesterol, and EA had correlations between DGEs and population effects statistically significantly below 1 (FDR<0.05, one-sided test).
“We found that height, myopia, hypertension, allergic rhinitis, depressive symptoms, neuroticism, self-rated health, HDL cholesterol, and EA had correlations statistically significantly below 1 (FDR<0.05, one-sided test).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The genome-wide correlation between DGEs and population effects is below 1 for 27/30 phenotypes (FDR<0.05).
“The genome-wide correlation between DGEs and population effects is below 1 (FDR<0.05, one-sided test after Benjamini-Hochberg correction, which we use hereafter for multiple-testing correction) for 27/30 phenotypes (Figure 1, Table 1, Supplementary Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The genetic correlation between educational attainment and BMI reduces in magnitude from −0.288 (S.E. 0.026) using population effects to −0.068 (S.E. 0.045) using direct genetic effects.
“the genetic correlation between EA and BMI reduces in magnitude from −0.288 (S.E. 0.026) to −0.068 (S.E. 0.045).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was a general inflation of test statistics comparing genetic correlations estimated using direct genetic effects and population effects.
“We found a general inflation of test statistics comparing genetic correlations estimated using DGEs and population effects (Supplementary Figure 10).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The height direct genetic effect PGI achieved the highest partial R2 (17.9%, 95% C.I. 15.8%−20.1%).
“The height DGE PGI achieved the highest partial R² (17.9%, 95% C.I. 15.8%−20.1%)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For educational attainment, the SNP heritability estimated from direct genetic effects is 7.2% (S.E. 0.8%).
“Our estimate of the SNP heritability from DGEs for EA, 7.2% (S.E. 0.8%), was larger than estimated by Howe et al., 4% (S.E. 0.8%).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For educational attainment, using meta-analysis summary statistics and meta-analyzing cohort-level SNP heritability estimates gave nearly identical results.
“we found nearly identical results when using meta-analysis summary statistics as when meta-analyzing cohort-level SNP heritability estimates (Supplementary Figure 7)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
LDSC intercept results for DGE and population effect summary statistics are consistent with the removal of confounding in FGWAS estimates of DGEs.
“We also analyzed the LDSC intercept, which has been proposed as a measure of confounding in GWAS test statistics, for both DGE and population effect summary statistics, finding results consistent with the removal of confounding in FGWAS estimates of DGEs (Methods and Supplementary Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Mate identification in the white British subsample of UK Biobank resulted in 39,710 putative mate pairs used to measure cross-mate cross-phenotype correlations.
“This resulted in 39,710 putative mate pairs that were used to measure cross-mate cross-phenotype correlations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The remaining phenotypes with DGE-based intercepts >1 (age at menarche, myopia, allergic rhinitis) had large DGE-based LDSC ratios (>0.25).
“The remaining phenotypes (age at menarche, myopia, allergic rhinitis) showed large ratios (>0.25), potentially indicating unusual genetic architectures.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Among the 15 phenotypes with DGE-based intercepts significantly greater than one, height, BMI, and ever-smoker had small DGE-based LDSC ratios (<0.15).
“Of the 15 phenotypes with DGE-based intercepts significantly greater than one, height, BMI, and ever-smoker showed small DGE-based ratios (<0.15).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Nine of the other phenotypes with DGE-based intercepts >1 either failed the sample-size filter for the DGE meta-analysis or had a product of DGE sample size and heritability below the a priori exclusion threshold for sample size only.
“Nine of the other phenotypes either failed our sample-size filter for the DGE meta-analysis or showed post hoc a product of DGE sample size and heritability in below those excluded a priori for sample size only.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisereasoning
The association between the non-transmitted allele and offspring phenotype (controlling for transmitted allele) reflects all factors causing genotype-phenotype association other than the allele being transmitted and its direct causal effect.
“The association between the non-transmitted allele and offspring phenotype (controlling for the transmitted allele) reflects all the factors causing genotype-phenotype association other than the allele being transmitted to the offspring and its direct causal effect on the offspring’s phenotype.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisereasoning
The lack of precise FGWAS results has limited their application.
“The lack of precise FGWAS results has limited their application.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Only the highest quality imputed variants are suitable for FGWAS or sib-GWAS.
“We found that, except for the highest quality imputed variants, standard imputation from reference panels did not preserve the relationships between siblings’ genotypes implied by Mendelian Laws, implying that only the highest quality imputed variants are suitable for FGWAS or sib-GWAS (Supplementary Note Section 1 and Supplementary Figure 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Assortative mating has led to overestimation of SNP heritability for 5 phenotypes.
“By estimating SNP heritability and genetic correlations using DGEs, we found evidence that assortative mating has led to overestimation of SNP heritability for 5 phenotypes and overestimation of the degree of shared genetic effects (pleiotropy) between 22 pairs of phenotypes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
FGWAS removes confounding factors, reflected in the average NTC, that can lead to biased inferences in downstream applications of GWAS.
“FGWAS thus removes confounding factors, reflected in the average NTC, that can lead to biased inferences in downstream applications of GWAS.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Under random mating, the population effect βl equals the sum of DGE δl and average NTC αl (βl=δl+αl), and deviations from this relationship are negligible for samples with low levels of structure.
- Interpretationown data
Population stratification confounding is likely the major cause of the substantial contributions of factors uncorrelated with DGEs to genetic associations.
“We found evidence that factors uncorrelated with DGEs make substantial contributions to genetic associations for 27 phenotypes, with population stratification confounding — a form of gene-environment correlation — likely the major cause.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Polygenic predictors constructed from DGEs are particularly useful for studying natural selection, assortative mating, and indirect genetic effects.
“Polygenic predictors constructed from DGEs are particularly useful for studying natural selection, assortative mating, and indirect genetic effects (effects of relatives’ genes mediated through the family environment).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Assortative mating has led to overestimation of the degree of shared genetic effects (pleiotropy) between 22 pairs of phenotypes.
“By estimating SNP heritability and genetic correlations using DGEs, we found evidence that assortative mating has led to overestimation of SNP heritability for 5 phenotypes and overestimation of the degree of shared genetic effects (pleiotropy) between 22 pairs of phenotypes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The low correlation between direct genetic effects and population effects is due to confounding factors in population effects that are uncorrelated with direct genetic effects, likely uncorrected population stratification.
“we show that the low correlation between DGEs and population effects is due to confounding factors in population effects (as estimated from standard GWAS) that are uncorrelated with DGEs, likely uncorrected population stratification (Methods and Figure 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
These results support Border et al.'s hypothesis that cross-trait assortative mating has inflated the magnitude of genetic correlation estimates from population effects.
“These results support Border et al.’s hypothesis”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Border et al. [7] 2022, Cross-trait assortative mating is widespread and inflates genetic correlation estimates, Science
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisenone given
Standard GWAS remains the most powerful study design for discovering variants robustly associated with human traits and diseases.
“Standard GWAS remains the most powerful study design for discovering variants robustly associated with human traits and diseases”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Under an assortative-mating-only explanation, we would expect greater shrinkage from the direct genetic effect PGI than from the population-effect-based PGI because the direct genetic effect PGI has a smaller R2.
“under that explanation, we would expect to see greater shrinkage from the DGE PGI than from the population-effect-based PGI (R²=5.3%) because the DGE PGI (R²=1.8%) has a smaller R² (ref23).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites ref23
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationown data
Factors other than direct genetic effects, including indirect genetic effects and assortative mating, inflate population-effect-based estimates of genetic correlations.
“indicating that factors other than DGEs (including IGEs and AM) inflate population-effect-based estimates of genetic correlations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Cross-trait assortative mating contributes to population-effect genetic correlation estimates.
“the fact that the relationship is stronger for population-effect genetic correlations is evidence that xAM contributes to population-effect genetic correlation estimates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Direct genetic effect PGIs, or hybrid PGIs combining GWAS and FGWAS results, may provide improved out-of-sample prediction over population-effect PGIs in certain contexts long before FGWAS effective sample sizes approach current large-scale GWAS sample sizes.
“Thus, DGE PGIs, or hybrid PGIs combining GWAS and FGWAS results, may provide improved out-of-sample prediction over population-effect PGIs in certain contexts long before FGWAS effective sample sizes approach current large-scale GWAS sample sizes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Our results do not imply that strongly associated loci discovered and replicated by GWAS are false positives.
“our results do not imply that strongly associated loci discovered and replicated by GWAS are false positives.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Some of the confounding in GWAS may contribute to out-of-sample prediction ability in contexts similar to the original GWAS.
“While some of the confounding in GWAS may contribute to out-of-sample prediction ability in contexts similar to the original GWAS”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Substantial residual confounding can persist after principal-component adjustment.
“implying that substantial residual confounding can persist after principal-component adjustment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The relative contribution of population stratification is likely smaller for strongly associated variants, such as those that reach genome-wide significance in standard GWAS.
“the relative contribution is likely smaller for strongly associated variants, such as those that reach genome-wide significance in standard GWAS.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
LDSC-estimated genetic correlations between DGEs and population effects will underestimate the degree of confounding in population effects to the degree that LDSC successfully adjusts out population stratification confounding.
“Thus, LDSC-estimated genetic correlations between DGEs and population effects will underestimate the degree of confounding in population effects to the degree that LDSC successfully adjusts out population stratification confounding.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The relative contribution from confounding factors at strongly associated variants is likely much smaller than genome-wide.
“Thus, the relative contribution from confounding factors at strongly associated variants — such as genome-wide-significant variants — is likely much smaller than genome-wide.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
Our population effect estimates were adjusted for genetic principal components.
“Our population effect estimates were adjusted for genetic principal components”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Inflation of effects due to assortative mating would be expected to increase a above 1.
“Inflation of effects due to assortative mating would be expected to increase a above 1 (ref23).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites ref23
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationown data
Results obtained from univariate and multivariate meta-analysis will be highly concordant.
“suggesting that results obtained from both univariate and multivariate meta-analysis will be highly concordant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Our conclusions may not apply to GWAS of rare variants.
“so our conclusions may not apply to GWAS of rare variants.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
FGWAS will produce estimates of direct genetic effects with a smaller total error (bias plus sampling error) than standard-GWAS-derived population-effects once FGWAS effective sample sizes pass some threshold.
“implying that FGWAS will produce estimates of DGEs with a smaller total error (bias plus sampling error) than standard-GWAS-derived population-effects once FGWAS effective sample sizes pass some threshold.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
It is not consistent with the within-family attenuation of educational attainment PGI prediction being due solely to assortative mating.
“It is not consistent with the within-family attenuation of EA PGI prediction being due solely to AM”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
There is little attenuation of PGI predictive power within-family for direct genetic effect PGIs.
“indicating little attenuation of PGI predictive power within-family.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Confounding may be more likely to affect methods that use genome-wide summary statistics than only strongly associated loci.
“Confounding may be more likely to affect methods that use genome-wide summary statistics than only strongly associated loci.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
GWAS-derived population-effect PGIs will likely provide greater out-of-sample prediction ability than direct genetic effect PGIs in the near-term.
“Therefore, GWAS-derived population-effect PGIs will likely provide greater out-of-sample prediction ability than DGE PGIs in the near-term.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
These results run counter to the intuition that FGWAS and sib-GWAS DGE estimates should be deflated relative to population effects because the influence of AM and IGEs, which are often assumed to be highly correlated with DGEs, is removed.
“These results run counter to the intuition that FGWAS and sib-GWAS DGE estimates should be deflated relative to population effects because the influence of AM and IGEs, which are often assumed to be highly correlated with DGEs, is removed9,23,27.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Confounding present in GWAS population effects means that population-effect estimates will not converge to direct genetic effects.
“the confounding present in GWAS population effects means that population-effect estimates will not converge to DGEs”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The contribution from population stratification can be quite large relative to direct genetic effects genome-wide where most variants do not have true direct genetic effects.
“While the contribution from population stratification can be quite large relative to DGEs genome-wide — where most variants do not have true DGEs”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
There was only limited evidence of confounding when using direct genetic effect PGIs.
“We therefore found only limited evidence of confounding when using DGE PGIs”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Functional enrichment estimates from stratified LDSC may not be particularly susceptible to bias from confounding in standard GWAS.
“This suggests that functional enrichment estimates from stratified LDSC may not be particularly susceptible to bias from confounding in standard GWAS”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
Power for the functional enrichment analysis was limited for educational attainment direct genetic effects.
“although power for this analysis was limited for EA DGEs.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
A stronger relationship between cross-mate cross-phenotype correlations and population effect genetic correlations than with DGE genetic correlations is consistent with some (but not all) of the pleiotropy signal being artifactual.
“To summarise, a stronger relationship between cross-mate cross-phenotype correlations and population effect genetic correlations than with DGE genetic correlations is consistent with some (but not all) of the pleiotropy signal being artifactual as we should expect in a world where lots of phenotypes are correlated across mates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: DGE-based genetic correlations should be almost entirely free from the influence of xAM.
- Interpretationreasoning
If mates assort on one phenotype X that is pleiotropic with Y, then X and Y will be phenotypically and genetically correlated across mates, but the genetic correlation would be fully mediated through the cross-mate correlation on X.
“If mates assort on one phenotype X that’s pleiotropic with Y (e.g. BMI and adiposity), then X and Y will be phenotypically and genetically correlated across mates, but the genetic correlation would be fully mediated through the cross-mate correlation on X.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The lower average DGE-based LDSC ratio compared to population-based ratio for the 18 phenotypes is consistent with a successful removal of confounding bias.
“Overall, the 18 phenotypes with an acceptable product of DGE sample size and SNP heritability showed an average DGE-based LDSC ratio of 0.104, smaller than their average population-based ratio of 0.306—consistent with a successful removal of confounding bias.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The large DGE-based LDSC ratios (>0.25) for age at menarche, myopia, and allergic rhinitis potentially indicate unusual genetic architectures.
“The remaining phenotypes (age at menarche, myopia, allergic rhinitis) showed large ratios (>0.25), potentially indicating unusual genetic architectures.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
A relationship between cross-mate phenotype correlations and genetic correlations due to pleiotropy is expected even under univariate AM.
“This implies that a relationship between cross-mate phenotype correlations and genetic correlations due to pleiotropy is expected even under univariate AM.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 49
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 18
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThese factors include gene-environment correlation due to IGEs and population stratification as well as confounding due to correlations with genetic variants across the genome due to non-random mating.
“These factors include gene-environment correlation due to IGEs and population stratification as well as confounding due to correlations with genetic variants across the genome due to non-random mating15,16.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
- cites [16] Veller, C. & Coop, G. Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding. PLoS Biol. (2024). source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationGenetic associations (including those from GWAS) can be affected by gene-environment correlations and non-random mating, such as indirect genetic effects, assortative mating, and population stratification, leading to biased inferences.
“However, genetic associations can be affected by gene-environment correlations and non-random mating, which can lead to biased inferences in downstream analyses.”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
“However, recent research3–10 has shown that GWASs are susceptible to confounding from indirect genetic effects (IGEs) from relatives — e.g. an effect of parents’ alleles on offspring education mediated through the alleles’ effects on parental education11 — assortative mating (when there are correlations across parents’ phenotypes and genotypes), and population stratification.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim7 of 8 sources checked- cites [3] source
- cites [4] source
The Materials and methods section discusses fMRI multivariate analysis and motor-sequence performance, not genetic associations. Searches for gene–environment correlation, non-random mating, GWAS, assortative mating, and population stratification found no passage in our copy addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [5] source
The Introduction discusses interpretation of brain activity during motor-sequence learning, and the Materials and methods discusses statistical testing of imaging data (page numbers unavailable). Searches for gene–environment correlation, non-random mating, assortative mating, and population stratification found no passage addressing bias in genetic associations. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [6] source
The Methods section discusses selecting a non-biased peptide–protein structure dataset, and the Results section discusses correlations between docking-model and crystal-structure measurements; neither addresses genetic associations. Searches for gene–environment correlation, non-random mating, GWAS, indirect genetic effects, assortative mating, and population stratification found no passage supporting the claim. Page numbers were unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.77)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [7] 2022, Cross-trait assortative mating is widespread and inflates genetic correlation estimates, Science
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [8] source
- cites [9] source
- cites [10] source
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationAnalytical techniques including PCA and linear mixed models reduce population stratification confounding but often leave residual confounding in GWAS results.
“Analytical techniques including principal component analysis (PCA) and linear mixed models have been developed to reduce population stratification confounding12, but these techniques often leave residual confounding in GWAS results5,8,10.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim4 of 4 sources checked- cites [12] source
The “Mixed model association methods prevent false-positive associations and increase power” section says mixed linear models address confounding from sample structure. The “Pitfall: using a small subset of markers in GRM” section shows that particular implementations can leave stratification insufficiently corrected. But the paper also describes correction as nearly perfect for common variants, so it does not support the broad claim that PCA and linear mixed models often leave residual confounding in GWAS results. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [5] source
The citation is attached to the claim that PCA and linear mixed models reduce population-stratification confounding. The Materials and methods section discusses multivariate analysis of brain-imaging data, not GWAS; searches for PCA, linear mixed models, population stratification, and genetic ancestry found no passage addressing that claim. The later residual-confounding clause carries different citations. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [8] source
- cites [10] source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationFGWAS has been proposed as a solution to confounding in GWAS that also enables deeper investigation of gene-environment correlation and non-random mating.
“Family-based GWAS (FGWAS) has been proposed as a solution to the problem of confounding in GWAS3,9,14–16 that also enables deeper investigation of the impact of gene-environment correlation — including from IGEs — and non-random mating, including population structure and assortative mating.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim5 of 5 sources checked- cites [3] source
- cites [9] source
- cites [14] source
- cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
- cites [16] Veller, C. & Coop, G. Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding. PLoS Biol. (2024). source
The Introduction and Discussion say family-based GWASs were adopted to reduce confounding and examine how population structure, assortative mating, and indirect genetic effects affect estimates. But the Discussion cautions that family-based estimates retain some confounding and that estimates of indirect genetic effects can absorb confounds, so the paper does not support presenting FGWAS as an unqualified solution that can disentangle those effects. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationWhen applied to sibling pair data, the imputation approach increases effective sample size of DGE estimates by up to one third and of average NTCs by up to one half compared to sib-GWAS.
“When applied to sibling pair data, this approach increases the effective sample size of DGE estimates by up to one third and of average NTCs by up to one half compared to sib-GWAS3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] source
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe LDSC intercept has been proposed as a measure of confounding, with deviations above one argued to represent the extent of spurious inflation in GWAS test statistics.
“The LDSC intercept has been proposed as a measure of confounding, with deviations above one argued to represent the extent of spurious inflation in GWAS test statistics33.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningSince AM is strong for all of these phenotypes, these results suggest that larger LDSC SNP heritability estimates from population effects are primarily due to AM, with the influence of population stratification diminished to the degree that LDSC successfully adjusts for it.
“Since AM is strong for all of these phenotypes31 (AM is likely for age at first birth in women indirectly due to the correlation of age at first birth with EA29,37), these results suggest that larger LDSC SNP heritability estimates from population effects are primarily due to AM6, with the influence of population stratification diminished to the degree that LDSC successfully adjusts for it.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim4 of 4 sources checked- cites [31] 2023, Evidence of correlations between human partners based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of 22 traits and UK Biobank analysis of 133 traits, Nat. Hum. Behav source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [29] source
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [37] source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [6] source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPolygenic indices based on direct genetic effects from FGWAS have favorable properties due to the removal of confounding from PGI weights, making them suited to applications that are sensitive to confounding.
“Polygenic predictors (called polygenic indices, PGIs, or polygenic scores) based on DGE estimates from FGWAS – hereafter, DGE PGIs – have favorable properties due to the removal of confounding from PGI weights, making them suited to applications that are sensitive to confounding4,5,9,13,23.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim5 of 5 sources checked- cites [4] source
The Introduction and Materials and methods discuss motor-sequence consolidation and fMRI pattern analysis, not polygenic indices. Searches for direct genetic effects, FGWAS, polygenic scores, and genetic confounding found no passage addressing the claim in our copy; no page numbers were provided. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [5] source
The Materials and methods section discusses fMRI multivariate pattern analysis of motor sequences, not genetic prediction. Searches for polygenic indices, direct genetic effects, FGWAS, and confounding found no passage addressing the attributed claim in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [9] source
The Discussion (page unavailable) says family-based estimates are likely to be less biased for phenotypes sensitive to demographic and indirect genetic effects, supporting their use in confounding-sensitive applications. But the Main text’s Fig. 2 explanation says within-sibship estimates can still be affected by siblings’ indirect effects, and the Discussion likewise notes that limitation. The paper therefore supports reduced confounding in the estimates used for PGI weights, not its complete removal. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [13] source
The Results section on Phd1-deficient mice concerns muscle mass and mTORC1 activation, not polygenic prediction. Searches for FGWAS, direct genetic effects, polygenic indices, and confounding returned no passage addressing the claim. The available passages have no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [23] source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataWe do not replicate the Howe et al. result for cognitive performance: we find similar SNP heritability from DGEs (0.188, S.E. 0.027) and population effects (0.186, S.E. 0.016), whereas Howe et al. found substantially smaller heritability from DGEs (0.14, S.E. 0.043) than from population effects (0.24, S.E. 0.031).
“However, we do not replicate the Howe et al. result for cognitive performance: we find similar SNP heritability from DGEs (0.188, S.E. 0.027) and population effects (0.186, S.E. 0.016), whereas Howe et al. found substantially smaller heritability from DGEs (0.14, S.E. 0.043) than from population effects (0.24, S.E. 0.031).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [9] source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationBeyond uncorrected-for population stratification, other phenomena may lead to LDSC intercepts above one, including violation of LDSC assumptions about genetic architecture, differences in LD between the reference and meta-analysis samples, and cryptic relatedness.
“Beyond uncorrected-for population stratification, other phenomena may lead to LDSC intercepts above one, including: violation of LDSC assumptions about genetic architecture48, differences in LD between the reference and meta-analysis samples, and cryptic relatedness9.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [48] source
The Results section (page unavailable) reports that relatedness between sample members raised the LDSC intercept, and that a simulated violation of regression linearity could produce an intercept above one without confounding. The passages do not establish that differences in LD between reference and meta-analysis samples raise the intercept; searches for that specific mechanism found no supporting passage. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [9] source
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationThe effective sample size for direct genetic effects is on the order of 10^4 to 10^5, an order of magnitude lower than the most powerful GWAS meta-analyses, which have sample sizes in the millions.
“the effective sample size for DGEs (on the order of 104 to 105) remains an order of magnitude lower than for the most powerful GWAS meta-analyses, which have sample sizes in the millions17,45.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [17] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [45] source
The ‘GWAS discoveries, sample size and ancestry diversity’ section reports height GWAS sample sizes up to about 5.3 million, supporting the comparison to GWAS meta-analyses with millions of participants. It does not report an effective sample size of 10^4–10^5 for direct genetic effects, so it does not establish the claimed gap. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThese factors include environmental factors and direct genetic effects of other variants with which the PGI is correlated due to non-random mating.
“These include environmental factors and DGEs of other variants with which the PGI is correlated due to non-random mating15,23.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationInferences from LD score regression applied to GWAS results appear fairly robust to confounding due to population stratification, at least some of which is adjusted out by LDSC.
“Inferences drawn from the application of LD score regression (LDSC) to GWAS results appear to be fairly robust to confounding due to population stratification, at least some of which is adjusted out by LDSC5,33.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [5] source
The Materials and methods section describes fMRI multivariate analysis and statistical testing, not LD score regression of GWAS results. Searches for LDSC, GWAS, population stratification, and related genetic-association terms found no passage addressing whether LDSC adjusts for stratification. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [33] source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn FPGI analysis, adding parental PGIs as covariates enables estimation of the direct effect of the PGI, which reflects only direct genetic effects.
“In the FPGI analysis, we add parental PGIs as covariates, enabling estimation of the ‘direct effect’ of the PGI, which reflects only DGEs15,16.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [15] Benjamin, D. J. , Cesarini, D. , Turley, P. & Young, A. S. Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions. (2024). source
- cites [16] Veller, C. & Coop, G. Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding. PLoS Biol. (2024). source
The “Polygenic scores and their phenotypic associations” section (page unavailable) describes parent-offspring PGS regressions and says within-family PGS slopes are often interpreted as capturing direct genetic effects. But the Discussion’s “Direct genetic effects” section warns that population-GWAS-derived PGS weights can absorb confounding. The paper does not establish that adding parental PGIs as covariates yields an estimate reflecting only direct genetic effects. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThe primary explanation for positive LDSC estimates of correlation between DGEs and average NTCs for height and EA is likely assortative mating, which is strong for EA and height, although IGEs that are positively correlated with DGEs could also contribute.
“The primary explanation is likely AM, which is strong for EA and height25,31, although IGEs that are positively correlated with DGEs could also contribute3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked- cites [25] 2018, Imprint of assortative mating on the human genome, Nat. Hum. Behav source
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [31] 2023, Evidence of correlations between human partners based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of 22 traits and UK Biobank analysis of 133 traits, Nat. Hum. Behav source
The Results (Partner Correlations in the UK Biobank; page unavailable) report substantial partner similarity for educational attainment (r = 0.48) but a smaller correlation for height (r = 0.27), which the paper characterizes as low-to-moderate rather than strong. This citation supports assortative mating for both traits, but not the characterization of height assortment as strong. The sentence cites other sources for the possible IGE contribution; this verdict does not assess that clause. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [3] source
- The authors state this as an assumption: Under assortative mating at equilibrium, βl=δl/(1−rδ), where rδ is the correlation between parents’ DGE components, and thus αl=βl−δl=rδ/(1−rδ)δl.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationIn cases of a large product of sample size and SNP heritability, a normalization of the LDSC intercept called the 'ratio' has been proposed as a more appropriate measure of confounding.
“In cases of a large product of sample size and SNP heritability, a normalization of the LDSC intercept called the ‘ratio’ has been proposed as a more appropriate measure of confounding49.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [49] Loh, P.-R. , Kichaev, G. , Gazal, S. , Schoech, A. P. & Price, A. L. Mixed-model association for biobank-scale datasets. Nat. Genet. 1 (2018) doi:10/gfxkmc. source
May combine two claims.
FindingcitationOur SNP heritability estimates are generally similar to those from Howe et al., although with greatly increased precision for some phenotypes.
“Our SNP heritability estimates are generally similar to those from Howe et al.9 although with greatly increased precision for some phenotypes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [9] source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningAssortative mating, rather than population stratification, is likely the primary explanation for the differences in SNP heritability, although indirect genetic effects could also contribute.
“AM (rather than population stratification) is likely to be the primary explanation6, although IGEs could also contribute44.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [6] source
The Results section discusses peptide–protein docking and interface hotspots, while the Discussion addresses protein-binding motifs; neither addresses SNP heritability. Searches for assortative mating, population stratification, and indirect genetic effects found no relevant passage in our copy. Page numbers were unavailable. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [44] source
The citation is attached to the claim that assortative mating, rather than population stratification, is the likely primary explanation. Our copy discusses population-stratification bias in the Results (‘Simulation of RDR heritability estimation’) and indirect genetic effects in the Discussion, but does not identify assortative mating as an explanation or compare its importance with stratification. Searches for ‘assortative mating’ and that proposed comparison found no supporting passage; the separate indirect-genetic-effects clause cites another source. (LLM, conf=0.75)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationSNP heritability can include contributions from IGEs, population stratification, and can be inflated by AM.
“Thus, SNP heritability can include contributions from IGEs, population stratification (more relevant for GREML than LDSC, which attempts to adjust for population stratification), and can be inflated by AM6.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] source
The Results passages on AF2 peptide–protein docking and the Discussion passage on binding motifs do not address SNP heritability. Searches for indirect genetic effects, population stratification, GREML, LDSC, and assortative mating found no relevant passage in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationGenomicSEM allows users to fit structural equation models based on GWAS summary statistics.
“GenomicSEM allows users to fit structural equation models based on GWAS summary statistics.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [39] 2019, Genomic structural equation modelling provides insights into the multivariate genetic architecture of complex traits, Nat. Hum. Behav source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationTo perform quality control on CKB summary statistics, EAS allele frequencies from 1000 Genomes were used.
“To perform quality control on these summary statistics, we used EAS allele frequencies from 1000 Genomes50.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [50] source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAssortative mating biases estimates of SNP heritability and genetic correlations.
“We find evidence that there is substantial population stratification bias in population-effect estimates across a broad range of phenotypes and that assortative mating biases estimates of SNP heritability and genetic correlations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataSimilar patterns of lower cohort-level correlations than meta-analysis correlations were observed for other phenotypes.
“Similar patterns were observed for other phenotypes (Supplementary Table 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataCognitive performance, educational attainment, allergic rhinitis, height, and household income direct genetic effect PGIs had average NTCs showing evidence of being non-zero (two-sided P-value < 0.05), although they were not statistically distinguishable from zero after Benjamini-Hochberg correction.
“Cognitive performance, educational attainment, allergic rhinitis, height, and household income DGE PGIs had average NTCs that show evidence of being non-zero (two-sided P-value < 0.05), although they were not statistically distinguishable from zero after Benjamini-Hochberg correction.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataHeight and systolic blood pressure have inflated population effects relative to DGEs, whereas 10 phenotypes (ADHD, eczema, depression, cognitive performance, household income, drinks-per-week, subjective wellbeing, neuroticism, age at first birth in women, and number of children) have deflated population effects (FDR<0.05, two-sided test).
“Height and systolic blood pressure have inflated population effects, whereas 10 phenotypes (ADHD, eczema, depression, cognitive performance, household income, drinks-per-week, subjective wellbeing, neuroticism, age at first birth in women, and number of children) have deflated population effects (FDR<0.05, two-sided test).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe correlation between DGEs and average NTCs was different from zero (FDR<0.05, two-sided test) for 8 out of 24 phenotypes: below zero for ADHD, allergic rhinitis, eczema, cognitive performance, and household income; and above zero for systolic blood pressure, EA, and height.
“We found that the correlation between DGEs and average NTCs was different from zero (FDR<0.05, two-sided test) for 8 out of 24 phenotypes (Supplementary Table 3): below zero for ADHD, allergic rhinitis, eczema, cognitive performance, and household income; and above zero for systolic blood pressure, EA, and height (Supplementary Figure 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataGenetic correlation estimates from population effects are different from those from direct genetic effects for 22 pairs of phenotypes, with some pairs displaying qualitatively different estimates.
“We demonstrated that genetic correlation estimates from population effects are different from those from DGEs for 22 pairs of phenotypes, with some pairs displaying qualitatively different estimates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataDirect genetic effect PGIs for diastolic and systolic blood pressure, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol, and educational attainment all achieved partial R2 above 1%.
“with DGE PGIs for diastolic and systolic blood pressure, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol, and EA all achieving partial R² above 1% (Supplementary Table 9).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPopulation effects on EA are inflated by a factor of 1.131 (S.E.=0.072), but this estimate is not statistically distinguishable from 1.
“We also estimated that population effects on EA are inflated by a factor of 1.131 (S.E.=0.072), but this estimate is not statistically distinguishable from 1.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor depression, SNP heritability was estimated at 2.5% (S.E. 1.5%) using direct genetic effects and at 8.2% (S.E. 1.0%) using population effects.
“including depression, for which SNP heritability was estimated at 2.5% (S.E. 1.5%) when using DGEs and at 8.2% (S.E. 1.0%) when using population effects.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataEstimates of the contribution to population effects from factors uncorrelated with DGEs were 10.7% (S.E.=0.6%) for height and 10.2% (S.E.=1.0%) for BMI but reached 48.3% (S.E.=3.2%) for EA and 58.7% (S.E.=7.0%) for depressive symptoms.
“Estimates of the contribution to population effects from factors uncorrelated with DGEs were 10.7% (S.E.=0.6%) for height and 10.2% (S.E.=1.0%) for BMI but reached 48.3% (S.E.=3.2%) for EA and 58.7% (S.E.=7.0%) for depressive symptoms.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningFor EA, the meta-analysis estimate of the cohort-level correlation between DGEs and population effects was 0.547 (S.E.=0.052), lower than from the meta-analysis summary statistics, 0.689 (S.E.=0.023).
“For EA, the meta-analysis estimate of the cohort-level correlations was 0.547 (S.E.=0.052), lower than from the meta-analysis summary statistics, 0.689 (S.E.=0.023).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAmong the 18 phenotypes with an acceptable product of DGE sample size and SNP heritability, the average DGE-based LDSC ratio was 0.104, smaller than their average population-based ratio of 0.306.
“Overall, the 18 phenotypes with an acceptable product of DGE sample size and SNP heritability showed an average DGE-based LDSC ratio of 0.104, smaller than their average population-based ratio of 0.306—consistent with a successful removal of confounding bias.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Premisenone givenFGWAS requires parental genotypes, which are often not available in typical GWAS samples.
“While FGWAS has favorable theoretical properties, it requires parental genotypes, which are often not available in typical GWAS samples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationHowe et al. used variants with INFO score greater than 0.3, implying many low-quality imputed variants were analysed, which may have affected the results and conclusions drawn from their study.
“In this regard, our study differs from the sib-GWAS performed by Howe et al., which used variants with INFO score greater than 0.3, implying many low-quality imputed variants were analysed, which may have affected the results and conclusions drawn from their study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Howe et al.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisereasoningFGWAS estimates DGEs by adding parents' genotypes to regressions, using random assignment of genotype within-family due to Mendelian segregation.
“FGWAS adds the parents’ genotypes to the regressions performed in GWAS (Methods), thereby using the natural experiment of random assignment of genotype within-family — due to Mendelian segregation during meiosis — to estimate ‘direct genetic effects’ (DGEs).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningWe imposed a stringent imputation quality threshold (INFO score at least 0.99) for our analysis plan.
“We therefore imposed a stringent imputation quality threshold (INFO score at least 0.99) for our analysis plan (Supplementary File 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationWe included genetic principal components as covariates in cohort-level analyses to ensure that population effects derived from our analyses are comparable to those derived from standard GWAS.
“Although not necessary to remove confounding from estimates of DGEs, we included genetic principal components as covariates in cohort-level analyses to ensure that population effects derived from our analyses are comparable to those derived from standard GWAS3,20.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataWe found evidence supporting Border et al.'s hypothesis that genetic correlation estimates have been inflated by cross-trait assortative mating, but other factors may also contribute, such as indirect genetic effects.
“We found evidence supporting the hypothesis put forward by Border et al.7 that genetic correlation estimates have been inflated by cross-trait AM, but other factors may also contribute, such as IGEs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Border et al. [7] 2022, Cross-trait assortative mating is widespread and inflates genetic correlation estimates, Science
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThe predominance of GWAS in human genetics has led to study designs that prioritize sampling the maximum number of unrelated individuals.
“The predominance of GWAS in human genetics has led to study designs that prioritize sampling the maximum number of unrelated individuals.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). The quote only partly states this claim.
InterpretationcitationWithin-family contrast effects, where family members differentiate from each other, inducing IGEs in the opposite direction to DGEs, could contribute to negative correlations between DGEs and average NTCs.
“Another phenomenon that could contribute is within-family contrast effects, where family members (e.g. siblings) differentiate from each other, inducing IGEs in the opposite direction to DGEs30.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [30] source
May combine two claims.
PremisereasoningThis sampling strategy maximizes power to discover genotype-phenotype associations but often results in datasets without many first-degree relative pairs.
“This sampling strategy maximizes power to discover genotype-phenotype associations but often results in datasets without many first-degree relative pairs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationNegative correlations between DGEs and average NTCs - and concomitant deflation of population effects - could be due to collider bias induced by biased sampling with respect to phenotype values.
“Young et al. showed that negative correlations between DGEs and average NTCs — and concomitant deflation of population effects — could be due to collider bias induced by biased sampling with respect to phenotype values3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Young et al.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenMultivariate meta-analysis may introduce some bias into direct genetic effect estimates due to heterogeneity in the parameter vector across cohorts.
“multivariate meta-analysis may introduce some bias into DGE estimates due to heterogeneity in the parameter vector across cohorts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningLDSC-estimated correlations between DGEs and population effects below 1 could indicate the influence of confounding factors other than population stratification in standard GWAS - such as IGEs - or imperfect control for population stratification by LDSC.
“LDSC-estimated correlations between DGEs and population effects below 1 could therefore indicate the influence of confounding factors other than population stratification in standard GWAS — such as IGEs — or imperfect control for population stratification by LDSC5.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataConfounding factors uncorrelated with DGEs make a relatively small but non-negligible contribution to GWAS of traits such as height and BMI but comprise the majority of population effects for some phenotypes.
“These results indicate that confounding factors uncorrelated with DGEs make a relatively small but non-negligible contribution to GWAS of traits such as height and BMI but comprise the majority of population effects for some phenotypes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenSamples were restricted to homogeneous European ancestry subsamples for the 16 cohorts of predominantly European ancestries.
“Samples were restricted to homogeneous European ancestry subsamples for the 16 cohorts of predominantly European ancestries with the exact procedure varying depending upon cohort.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Premiseown dataThese phenotypes are not closely related to education or cognitive ability, the only previous phenotypes shown to have correlations below one.
“phenotypes not closely related to education or cognitive ability, the only previous phenotypes shown to have correlations below one.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationHowe et al.'s analysis only examined SNPs that were strongly associated (P<5×10−8 or P<1×10−5) based on standard GWAS in a UK Biobank subsample and weighted the analysis towards SNPs with stronger population effects, which may have contributed toward their analysis finding more deflation than there is genome-wide.
“However, their analysis only examined SNPs that were strongly associated (P<5×10−8 or P<1×10−5) based on standard GWAS in a UK Biobank subsample and weighted the analysis towards SNPs with stronger population effects, which may have contributed toward their analysis finding more deflation than there is genome-wide.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Howe et al.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenOur analyses were restricted to common variants (minor allele frequency >1%).
“our analyses were restricted to common variants (minor allele frequency >1%)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataOur analyses showed the value of FGWAS in debiasing inferences drawn from GWAS and in investigating the impact of gene-environment correlation and non-random mating.
“Our analyses showed the value of FGWAS in debiasing inferences drawn from GWAS and in investigating the impact of gene-environment correlation and non-random mating.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataIn the China Kadoorie Biobank, the observed results are consistent with strong ascertainment bias and/or confounding due to negative gene-environment correlations.
“We observed results consistent with strong ascertainment bias and/or confounding due to negative gene-environment correlations (Supplementary Table 4)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningWe excluded from further analysis phenotypes where our meta-analysis effective sample size for DGEs was below 5000: ever-cannabis, COPD, alcohol use disorder, and extraversion, leaving 30 phenotypes.
“To avoid under-powered analyses, we excluded from further analysis phenotypes where our meta-analysis effective sample size for DGEs was below 5000: ever-cannabis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), alcohol use disorder, and extraversion. This left 30 phenotypes for the subsequent analyses that we report on below (Table 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenPhenotypes were adjusted for standard covariates: age, sex, and genetic principal components.
“Phenotypes were adjusted for standard covariates: age, sex, and genetic principal components.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe lack of susceptibility of functional enrichment estimates to confounding may be due to adjustments for stratification made by LDSC and/or because stratification may affect all loci similarly irrespective of functional annotation.
“potentially due to adjustments for stratification made by LDSC and/or because stratification may affect all loci similarly irrespective of functional annotation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationIt is plausible that the deflation of population effects we observed for 9 phenotypes is due in part to ascertainment bias, although natural selection may also contribute through negative LD induced between sign-concordant causal alleles, consistent with the Bulmer effect.
“It is therefore plausible that the deflation of population effects we observed for 9 phenotypes is due in part to ascertainment bias, although natural selection (specifically, directional or stabilizing selection) may also contribute through negative LD induced between sign-concordant causal alleles, consistent with the Bulmer effect28.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [28] source
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataMost of the correlations estimated by LDSC were close to 1, indicating that much of the confounding in GWAS is likely due to uncorrected population stratification.
“However, most of the correlations estimated by LDSC were close to 1, indicating that much of the confounding in GWAS is likely due to uncorrected population stratification.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningConfounding at the variant level varies somewhat randomly across cohorts and is thus partially cancelled out in meta-analysis estimates of population effects, leading to increased correlation with DGEs.
“A plausible explanation for this is that confounding at the variant level varies somewhat randomly across cohorts and is thus partially cancelled out in meta-analysis estimates of population effects, leading to increased correlation with DGEs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThis pattern is consistent with deflation of population effects for eczema, cognitive performance and household income and inflation for height and systolic blood pressure.
“This is consistent with deflation of population effects for eczema, cognitive performance and household income and inflation for height and systolic blood pressure.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataSummary statistics provided by each cohort were passed through a quality control pipeline before meta-analysis was performed.
“Summary statistics provided by each cohort were passed through a quality control pipeline, described in Supplementary Note Section 1, before meta-analysis was performed.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataIn some cases, the procedure for computing statistical significance of differences between genetic correlations yielded correlations outside of [−1, 1], leading to convergence errors; when this occurred, the model was rerun constraining the relevant estimates to fall within [−0.9999, 0.9999].
“In some cases, this procedure yielded correlations outside of [−1, 1], leading to convergence errors. When this occurred, we reran the model, constraining the relevant estimates to fall within [−0.9999, 0.9999].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningA relationship between cross-mate phenotype correlations and DGE genetic correlations can be explained by pleiotropy and univariate AM, which would not be expected to generate spurious genetic correlations between phenotypes without any pleiotropy.
“Since DGE based genetic correlations should be almost entirely free from the influence of xAM, a relationship between cross-mate phenotype correlations and DGE genetic correlations can be explained by pleitropy and univariate AM, which would not be expected to generate spurious genetic correlations between phenotypes without any pleiotropy.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: DGE-based genetic correlations should be almost entirely free from the influence of xAM.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningTo reduce the impact of variants with low precision estimates, variants with effective sample size less than 0.8 of the median effective sample size for DGEs were filtered out.
“To reduce the impact of variants with low precision estimates, we filtered out variants with effective sample size less than 0.8 of the median effective sample size for DGEs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationUnder xAM, a relationship between cross-mate phenotype correlation and population effect genetic correlations will occur even in the absence of pleiotropy, and when there is some pleiotropy, it will be overestimated.
“However, under xAM, a relationship between cross-mate phenotype correlation and population effect genetic correlations will occur even in the absence of pleiotropy, and when there is some pleiotropy, it will be overestimated7.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [7] 2022, Cross-trait assortative mating is widespread and inflates genetic correlation estimates, Science
Not checked in the free run.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Under random mating, the population effect βl equals the sum of DGE δl and average NTC αl (βl=δl+αl), and deviations from this relationship are negligible for samples with low levels of structure.
“Under random-mating, βl=δl+αl, where αl=(αpl+αml)/2 is the average NTC3 and deviations from this relationship are negligible for samples with low levels of structure3, such as those typically used in GWAS.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Under assortative mating at equilibrium, βl=δl/(1−rδ), where rδ is the correlation between parents’ DGE components, and thus αl=βl−δl=rδ/(1−rδ)δl.
“To see this, consider that under AM at equilibrium, βl=δl/(1−rδ), where rδ is the correlation between parents’ DGE components23. Thus, αl=βl−δl=rδ/(1−rδ)δl.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The effects have expectation zero across the SNPs.
“we assume the effects have expectation zero across the SNPs”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The random bias term sl has mean zero and variance σs².
“We assume that El[sl]=0 and Varl(sl)=σs².”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Population effects can be modeled as scaled direct genetic effects plus a random bias term with mean zero.
“In effect, we are modeling population effects as scaled DGEs plus a random bias term with mean zero.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Under random mating, the population effect βl equals δl + αl.
“Under random-mating, the population effect, βl, is βl=δl+αl.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
For samples with minimal structure, deviations from the relationship βl = δl + αl are negligible.
“For samples with minimal structure — such as used in our meta-analysis — deviations from this relationship will be negligible3,20.”
The paper relies on this without support.
DGE-based genetic correlations should be almost entirely free from the influence of xAM.
“Since DGE based genetic correlations should be almost entirely free from the influence of xAM, a relationship between cross-mate phenotype correlations and DGE genetic correlations can be explained by pleitropy and univariate AM, which would not be expected to generate spurious genetic correlations between phenotypes without any pleiotropy.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Deflated population effects counted as both ten and nine
MinorThe Results identify ten phenotypes with deflated population effects, but a later paragraph refers to deflation observed for nine phenotypes.
“10 phenotypes (ADHD, eczema, depression, cognitive performance, household income, drinks-per-week, subjective wellbeing, neuroticism, age at first birth in women, and number of children) have deflated population effects”
“the deflation of population effects we observed for 9 phenotypes”
Number of phenotypes with correlations below one differs
MinorThe Results state that the correlation was below one for 27 of 30 phenotypes, with the remaining three not estimable. The Discussion gives 26 phenotypes for the same finding.
“The genome-wide correlation between DGEs and population effects is below 1 (FDR<0.05, one-sided test after Benjamini-Hochberg correction, which we use hereafter for multiple-testing correction) for 27/30 phenotypes”
“we found that DGEs and population effects have correlations below one for 26 phenotypes”
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Ancient DNA reveals pervasive directional selection across West Eurasia
Akbari, A., Perry, A., Barton, A. R., Kariminejad, M., Gazal, S., Li, Z., Zeng, Y., Mittnik, A., Patterson, N. J., Mah, M., et al. (2026) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-026-10358-1 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Ghirardi, G., & Bernardi, F. (2025) · Social Science Research · doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2025.103174 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Socio-economic status is a social construct with heritable components and genetic consequences
Abdellaoui, A., Martin, H. C., Kolk, M., Rutherford, A. D., Muthukrishna, M., Tropf, F. C., Mills, M. C., Zietsch, B. P., Verweij, K. J. H., & Visscher, P. M. (2025) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-025-02150-4 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Self-citationSchwaba, T., Sullivan, M. L. C., Akingbuwa, W. A., Ilves, K., Tanksley, P. T., Williams, C. M., Dragostinov, Y., Liao, W., Ackerman, L. S., Fealy, J. C. M., et al. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.05.16.648988 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationTesting for differences in polygenic scores in the presence of confounding
Blanc, J., & Berg, J. J. (2025) · Genetics · doi:10.1093/genetics/iyaf071 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
The Economics and Econometrics of Gene–Environment Interplay
Biroli, P., Galama, T. J., von Hinke, S., van Kippersluis, H., Rietveld, C. A., & Thom, K. (2025) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdaf034 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Participation bias in the estimation of heritability and genetic correlation
Song, S., Benónísdóttir, S., Liu, J. S., & Kong, A. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2425530122 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Self-citationA Litmus Test for Confounding in Polygenic ScoresPreprint
Smith, S. P., Smith, O. S., Peng, D., Miao, X., Mostafavi, H., Berg, J. J., Edge, M. D., & Harpak, A. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.02.01.635985 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Chaturvedi, N., Voight, B. F., Wells, J. C. K., & Pritlove, C. (2025) · Diabetologia · doi:10.1007/s00125-025-06516-1 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
van den Berg, D. M., Malawsky, D., Huang, W., Danecek, P., Walter, K., Kalantzis, G., Wade, I., Palmer, D., Birney, E., Verweij, K., et al. (2026) · Nature Genetics · doi:10.1038/s41588-026-02787-5 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Piffer, D. (2025) · Twin Research and Human Genetics · doi:10.1017/thg.2024.49 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Development and validation of polygenic scores for within-family prediction of disease risksPreprint
Moore, S., Davidson, I., Anomaly, J., Li, J. H., Ahangari, M. M., Moissiy, L., Christensen, M., Young, A. I., Stern, D., & Wolfram, T. (2025) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2025.08.06.25333145 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationBernardi, F., & Ghirardi, G. (2025) · Demography · doi:10.1215/00703370-11968557 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Lin, Y.-J., Procopio, F., Keser, E., Kawakami, K., Rimfeld, K., Malanchini, M., & Plomin, R. (2025) · Intelligence & Cognitive Abilities · doi:10.65550/001c.140654 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Family genetic designs in MoBa provide insights into health and functioning
Corfield, E. C., Shadrin, A. A., Frei, O., Rahman, Z., Akdeniz, B. C., Filiz, T. T., Lin, A., Badini, I., Hegemann, L., Athanasiu, L., et al. (2026) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-026-10926-5 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Robust inference and correlates from genetic associations with personality
Schwaba, T., Sullivan, M. L. C., Akingbuwa, W., Ilves, K., Tanksley, P., Williams, C., Dragostinov, Y., Mallard, T., Tubbs, J., Liao, W., et al. (2026) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-026-10992-9 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationThe genetic and environmental composition of socioeconomic status in Norway
Ebeltoft, J. C., Eilertsen, E. M., Cheesman, R., Ayorech, Z., Hootegem, A. V., Lyngstad, T. H., & Ystrøm, E. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-58961-6 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Fine-scale structure of a whole regional population through genetics and genealogies
Morin, G., Moreau, C., Barry, A. D., et al. (2026) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-026-70175-y · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Genetic architectures of brain-related traits are shaped by strong selective constraints
Zhu, H., Simons, Y. B., Spence, J. P., Sella, G., & Pritchard, J. K. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2609814123 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Malawsky, D. S., Koko, M., Danecek, P., Huang, W., Wootton, O., Huang, Q. Q., Wade, E. E., Lindsay, S., Arden, R., Hurles, M. E., et al. (2026) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-026-02491-8 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Three Promising Directions in the Study of Intelligence With Genetic Methods
Lee, J. J., & Morris, D. M. (2025) · Current Directions in Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/09637214251339449 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationMalawsky, D. S., Koko, M., Danecek, P., Huang, W., Wootton, O., Huang, Q. Q., Wade, E. E., Lindsay, S., Arden, R., Hurles, M. E., et al. (2024) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2024.09.04.24313061 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Within-Family GWAS does not Ameliorate the Decline in Prediction Accuracy across PopulationsPreprint
Zhang, L., & Conley, D. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.12.12.628188 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Perry, L. C., Chevalier, N., & Luciano, M. (2025) · Genes, Brain and Behavior · doi:10.1111/gbb.70030
Wolfram, T., Moore, S., Li, J. H., Anomaly, J., Davidson, I., & Christensen, M. (2026) · Intelligence & Cognitive Abilities · doi:10.65550/001c.158459 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Paulus, L., Disselkamp, C. K. L., Forstner, A. J., & Spinath, F. M. (2026) · Journal of Intelligence · doi:10.3390/jintelligence14040063 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Kelly, C. M., Onuorah, O., & Gilbert, E. (2026) · Human Genetics · doi:10.1007/s00439-026-02852-3 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Wang, C., Masala, M., Fiorillo, E., Devoto, M., Cucca, F., & Ionita‐Laza, I. (2025) · Genetics · doi:10.1093/genetics/iyaf138 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Wootton, O., Wade, E. E., Malawsky, D. S., Koko, M., Huang, W., Huang, Q. Q., Warrier, V., Hurles, M. E., & Martin, H. C. (2026) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41380-026-03851-6 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Mechanistic quantification of the effects of genes, environment, and development on human behaviourPreprint
González-Forero, M., & Gómez-Robles, A. (2026) · bioRxiv · doi:10.1101/2025.03.17.643651
Joseph, J. (2025) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1177/10892680251331047 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Estimating returns to education using the genetic lottery
Widding‐Havneraas, T., Demange, P., Zachrisson, H. D., Borgen, N. T., Ystrøm, E., & Elwert, F. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2537049123
Dobewall, H., Lehti, H., Sirniö, O., & Vaalavuo, M. (2025) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-6717200/v1
Sum, K. K., Hughes, A., Havdahl, A., Smith, G. D., & Howe, L. D. (2025) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2025.10.17.25338214
Revisiting genetic associations with educational outcomes during and after the Soviet era in EstoniaPreprint
Kuznetsov, I. A., Malanchini, M., Pain, O., Coleman, J. R. I., Dale, P. S., Pingault, J., Rastle, K., Hõrak, P., Plomin, R. J., Metspalu, A., et al. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.01.06.697950
Self-citationBlock, S. R., Schroder, H. S., Webster, C. T., Perricone, A. M., & Moser, J. S. (2026) · Neuroethics · doi:10.1007/s12152-026-09634-8
Dobewall, H., Vaalavuo, M., Böckerman, P., Viinikainen, J., Sirniö, O., Kantojärvi, K., Pehkonen, J., Raitakari, O. T., & Lehtimäki, T. J. (2026) · Demography · doi:10.1215/00703370-12550847
Early-career-researcher-led best practices for social science and behavioural genetics
Straub, V. J., Harerimana, N. V., Alajääskö, L., et al. (2026) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-026-02469-6
Estimating uncertainty in family-based GWASPreprint
Miao, X., Edge, M. D., & Harpak, A. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.05.11.724392
Jaishankar, D., Gjorgjieva, T., Jala, J., Swigert, J., Young, A. I., Benjamin, D. J., Cesarini, D. A., & Turley, P. (2026) · medRxiv · doi:10.64898/2026.05.14.26353140
Self-citationMore Than General Intelligence: Cognitive Abilities and Class Structure
Edwards, T., & DeYoung, C. G. (2026) · Intelligence & Cognitive Abilities · doi:10.65550/001c.162975
Dearman, A., Vrtička, P., Moore, J. C., Meena Kumari, B., & Schalkwyk, L. C. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.64898/2026.07.07.26357467
The Genome-Wide Effect of Drift and Selection over a Single GenerationPreprint
Sgarlata, G. M., & Coop, G. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.08.04.742829
Young, E. A., Erten, E. Y., Postma, E., Lummaa, V., van der Vegt, B., de Bock, G. H., & Dugdale, H. L. (2026) · Molecular Biology and Evolution · doi:10.1093/molbev/msag222
Malawsky, D., Hegemann, L., Wootton, O., Havdahl, A., Sunde, H., & Martin, H. (2026) · bioRxiv · doi:10.64898/2026.09.01.748516
Genomic insights into natural selection in recent human history
Skoglund, P., & Mathieson, I. (2026) · Nature Reviews Genetics · doi:10.1038/s41576-026-01010-9
- Authors
- Tan, T., Jayashankar, H., Guan, J., Nehzati, S. M., Mir, M., Bennett, M., Agerbo, E., Ahlskog, R., de Andrade Anapaz, V. P., Benonisdottir, S., Boomsma, D. I., Campbell, A., Chabris, C. F., Chen, Z., China Kadoorie Biobank Collaborative Group, de Geus, E., Ehli, E. A., Elnahas, A. G., Estonian Biobank Research Team, Finngen, Ganna, A., Giannelis, A., Hakaste, L., Hayward, C., Hottenga, J.-J., Houmark, M. A., Kaprio, J., Latvala, A., Lee, J. J., Lehtovirta, M., Li, L., Study, L. C., Lin, K., Linnér, R. K., Lombardi, S., Martin, N. G., McGue, M., Medland, S. E., Metspalu, A., Mitchell, B. L., Ni, G., Nolte, I. M., Oetjens, M. T., Oskarsson, S., Palviainen, T., Prasad, R. B., Reigo, A., Reis, K., Sidorenko, J., Silventoinen, K., Snieder, H., Tuomi, T., Vilhjálmsson, B. J., Walters, R. G., Willoughby, E. A., Flint, J., Yengo, L., Visscher, P. M., Kong, A., Tucker-Drob, E. M., Border, R., Cesarini, D., Turley, P., Okbay, A., Benjamin, D. J., & Young, A. S.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Aarhus University (DK)
- Uppsala University (SE)
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland FIMM, HILife, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FIN-00140 Finland
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Western General Hospital (GB)
- Geisinger Health System (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Avera McKennan Hospital & University Health Center (US)
- University of Tartu (EE)
- The University of Texas at Austin (US)
- University of Helsinki (FI)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Peking University (CN)
- Leiden University (NL)
- QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (AU)
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- University Medical Center Groningen (NL)
- Autism & Developmental Medicine Institute (US)
- Broad Institute (US)
- UCLA Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Institute for Molecular Bioscience, University of Queensland, Australia
- Department of Psychology, The University of Texas at Austin, 108 E. Dean Keeton Stop A8000, Austin, TX 78712, USA
- University of Southern California (US)
- UCLA Anderson School of Management, Los Angeles, CA, USA
- ORCID
- Tan, Tammy
- Guan, Junming
- Agerbo, Esben
- Ahlskog, Rafael
- Boomsma, Dorret I.
- Campbell, Archie
- Chen, Zhengming
- Ehli, Erik A.
- Elnahas, Abdelrahman G.
- Ganna, Andrea
- Giannelis, Alexandros
- Hakaste, Liisa
- Hayward, Caroline
- Hottenga, Jouke-Jan
- Houmark, Mikkel Aagaard
- Kaprio, Jaakko
- Latvala, Antti
- Lee, James J.
- Lehtovirta, Mikko
- Li, Liming
- Linnér, Richard Karlsson
- Lombardi, Stefano
- Martin, Nicholas G.
- McGue, Matt
- Medland, Sarah E.
- Metspalu, Andres
- Mitchell, Brittany L.
- Ni, Guiyan
- Nolte, Ilja M.
- Oetjens, Matthew T.
- Oskarsson, Sven
- Palviainen, Teemu
- Prasad, Rashmi B.
- Reigo, Anu
- Reis, Kadri
- Sidorenko, Julia
- Silventoinen, Karri
- Snieder, Harold
- Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J.
- Walters, Robin G.
- Willoughby, Emily A.
- Visscher, Peter M.
- Kong, Augustine
- Border, Richard
- Cesarini, David
- Turley, Patrick
- Okbay, Aysu
- Benjamin, Daniel J.
- Young, Alexander Strudwick
- Venue
- medRxiv
- Publisher
- openRxiv
- Published
- 2024-10-04
- PMC
- PMC12633112
- OpenAlex
- W4403119557
- Semantic Scholar
- 8d27ef42535e305cd79539723f7a5bb36940433e
- Cited by
- 47
- References
- 62
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 2
- Type
- posted content
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Southern California
- Open Philanthropy Project
- National Institutes of Health (R01AG042568, R00-AG062787)
- University of California, Los Angeles
- National Institute on Aging (R24AG065184, R00AG062787, R01AG083379)
- National Institute of Mental Health (R01MH120219)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Associations and Epidemiology
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic and phenotypic traits in livestock
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Mapping and Diversity in Plants and Animals
- Keywords
- direct genetic effects, gene-environment correlation, population stratification, assortative mating, indirect genetic effects, pleiotropy, SNP heritability, polygenic prediction, phenotype prediction, genetic correlation, natural selection
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-29.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-29.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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