Earth and Mars: evolution of atmospheres and surface temperatures
Abstract
Solar evolution implies, for contemporary albedos and atmospheric composition, global mean temperatures below the freezing point of seawater less than 2.3 aeons ago, contrary to geologic and paleontological evidence. Ammonia mixing ratios of the order of a few parts per million in the middle Precambrian atmosphere resolve this and other problems. Possible temperature evolutionary tracks for Earth and Mars are described. A runaway greenhouse efect will occur on Earth about 4.5 aeons from now, when clement conditions will prevail on Mars.
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Liquid water under a fainter Sun likely implies more abundant greenhouse gases than today.
“Liquid water under a fainter Sun likely implies more abundant greenhouse gases than today (14, 15).”
From The Archean atmosphere (2020) · cites this paper as [14]
The most plausible solution to the FYS is a big greenhouse effect.
“The most plausible solution to the FYS is a big greenhouse effect (14, 214, 215).”
From The Archean atmosphere (2020) · cites this paper as [14]
NH3 levels of 10 to 100 ppmv would provide a greenhouse effect to counteract the faint young Sun.
“Ammonia (NH3) levels of 10 to 100 ppmv would provide a greenhouse effect to counteract the faint young Sun (FYS) (14), but these levels of NH3 cannot be sustained against UV photolysis (161).”
From The Archean atmosphere (2020) · cites this paper as [14]
Another proposed early greenhouse gas is H2, if it attained percentage abundances.
“Another proposed early greenhouse gas is H2, if it attained percentage abundances (14, 217, 218).”
From The Archean atmosphere (2020) · cites this paper as [14]
The Earth with its current atmosphere would have been too cold to possess liquid oceans under the Archean Sun.
“meaning that the Earth with its current atmosphere would have been too cold to possess liquid oceans (Sagan and Mullen 1972)”
From The young Sun's XUV-activity as a constraint for lower CO2-limits in the Earth's Archean atmosphere (2021) · cites this paper as Sagan and Mullen 1972
The Sun was about 30% less luminous 4.5 billion years ago than today and 20% less luminous 2.5 billion years ago than today.
“Going back in time, the Sun was about 30% less luminous 4.5 billion years ago than it is today (Sagan and Mullen, 1972) and 20% less luminous 2.5 billion years ago than it is today.”
From The Astrobiology Primer v2.0 (2016) · cites this paper as Sagan and Mullen, 1972
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Akoopie, A., & Müller, U. F. (2016) · Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics · doi:10.1039/c6cp00672h · Cited by 16 · see citing works
- Authors
- Sagan, C., & Mullen, G.
- Affiliations
- Cornell University (US)
- ORCID
- Sagan, Carl
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 1972-07-07
- Volume
- 177
- Issue
- 4043
- Pages
- 52-56
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W1986601098
- Cited by
- 942
- References
- 38
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 25 · 2020: 44 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 55 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 32 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 25 · 2013: 40 · 2012: 31
- FWCI
- 14.48
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Astro and Planetary Science
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Planetary Science and Exploration
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Paleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils
- Keywords
- atmospheric evolution, surface temperature evolution, Earth, Mars, ammonia, Precambrian atmosphere, runaway greenhouse effect, solar evolution, albedo, paleoclimate
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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