Cited by 4,506Atrial Fibrillation Management and OutcomesAcute Ischemic Stroke ManagementCardiovascular Health and Risk Factors

The DOI matches its Crossref record, with a small difference in title or year; 38 of the 38 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 36 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study

Open access

Abstract

Background—: The global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown. Methods and Results—: We systematically reviewed population-based studies of AF published from 1980 to 2010 from the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions to estimate global/regional prevalence, incidence, and morbidity and mortality related to AF (DisModMR software). Of 377 potential studies identified, 184 met prespecified eligibility criteria. The estimated number of individuals with AF globally in 2010 was 33.5 million (20.9 million men [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 19.5–22.2 million] and 12.6 million women [95% UI, 12.0–13.7 million]). Burden associated with AF, measured as disability-adjusted life-years, increased by 18.8% (95% UI, 15.8–19.3) in men and 18.9% (95% UI, 15.8–23.5) in women from 1990 to 2010. In 1990, the estimated age-adjusted prevalence rates of AF (per 100 000 population) were 569.5 in men (95% UI, 532.8–612.7) and 359.9 in women (95% UI, 334.7–392.6); the estimated age-adjusted incidence rates were 60.7 per 100 000 person-years in men (95% UI, 49.2–78.5) and 43.8 in women (95% UI, 35.9–55.0). In 2010, the prevalence rates increased to 596.2 (95% UI, 558.4–636.7) in men and 373.1 (95% UI, 347.9–402.2) in women; the incidence rates increased to 77.5 (95% UI, 65.2–95.4) in men and 59.5 (95% UI, 49.9–74.9) in women. Mortality associated with AF was higher in women and increased by 2-fold (95% UI, 2.0–2.2) and 1.9-fold (95% UI, 1.8–2.0) in men and women, respectively, from 1990 to 2010. There was evidence of significant regional heterogeneity in AF estimations and availability of population-based data. Conclusions—: These findings provide evidence of progressive increases in overall burden, incidence, prevalence, and AF-associated mortality between 1990 and 2010, with significant public health implications. Systematic, regional surveillance of AF is required to better direct prevention and treatment strategies.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This Global Burden of Disease 2010 systematic review estimated that 33.5 million people worldwide had atrial fibrillation (AF) in 2010, with rising prevalence, incidence, DALYs, and AF-associated mortality from 1990 to 2010. The authors conclude that AF is a growing global epidemic requiring systematic surveillance and region-specific prevention and treatment strategies.

Key findings

  • In 2010, an estimated 33.5 million individuals had AF globally: 20.9 million males (95% UI 19.5–22.2 million) and 12.6 million females (95% UI 12.0–13.7 million).
  • Age-adjusted AF prevalence per 100,000 increased from 569.5 in males and 359.9 in females in 1990 to 596.2 and 373.1 in 2010; incidence per 100,000 person-years increased from 60.7 and 43.8 to 77.5 and 59.5, respectively.
  • AF-associated DALYs increased by 18.8% in males (UI 15.8–19.3) and 18.9% in females (UI 15.8–23.5) from 1990 to 2010; mortality increased 2-fold in males (UI 2.0–2.2) and 1.9-fold in females (UI 1.8–2.0), and mortality associated with AF was higher in females overall.
  • Regional variation was substantial: in 2010, the lowest prevalence was in Asia Pacific (340.2 males, 196.0 females per 100,000) and the highest in North America (925.7 males, 520.8 females); incidence was also lowest in Asia Pacific (33.8 males, 19.8 females) and highest in North America (264.5 males, 196.3 females).

Methods

  • Systematic review of population-based AF epidemiological studies published 1980–2010 from the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions, using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and LILACS with no language restrictions; 377 potential studies were identified and 184 met pre-specified eligibility criteria.
  • Prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs were estimated with DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, and mortality modeling used CODEm/CoDCorrect; rates were age-adjusted and presented per 100,000 persons or person-years with 95% uncertainty intervals.
  • Denominators came from the United Nations population database; AF sequelae were assigned a disability weight of 0.031 for DALY calculations.

Limitations

  • The paper states that AF is heterogeneous and can be asymptomatic, so findings may underestimate burden; differences in surveillance, health care access, routine electrocardiograms, and device assessment may contribute to secular trends.
  • The authors state that observational data cannot accurately estimate the relative importance of contributing factors, publication bias cannot be ruled out, unpublished manuscripts or data were not actively sought, and cause-of-death assignment may be misclassified.
  • The paper also states that low data availability in several regions, geographical disparity in data density, non-representative population bias, and estimates based on imputations mean regional findings should be interpreted with caution, and future trend inferences should be made cautiously.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1161/circulationaha.113.005119

Cites

38 of 38 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

0 of 36 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

Show all 57 claims

  • Probably not a substantial claim. 30
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 16
43 of 43
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The global burden of atrial fibrillation is unknown.

    “The global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown.”
1 of 1

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Show all 38 references

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Items 701–800 of 1,004

Metadata

Authors
Chugh, S. S., Havmoeller, R., Narayanan, K., Singh, D., Rienstra, M., Benjamin, E. J., Gillum, R. F., Kim, Y.-H., McAnulty, J. H., Zheng, Z.-J., Forouzanfar, M. H., Naghavi, M., Mensah, G. A., Ezzati, M., & Murray, C. J. L.
Affiliations
Boston University (US)
Venue
Circulation
Published
2014-02-25
Volume
129
Issue
8
Pages
837-847
ISSN
  • 0009-7322 (ISSN-L)
  • 1524-4539
OpenAlex
W2147018083
Cited by
4,506
References
38
Citations by year
2026: 255 · 2025: 289 · 2024: 370 · 2023: 372 · 2022: 456 · 2021: 546 · 2020: 559 · 2019: 430 · 2018: 418 · 2017: 330 · 2016: 251 · 2015: 154 · 2014: 68
FWCI
108.18
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
other-oa
Locations
  • Circulation (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
  • Cedars-Sinai Medical Center
  • Vetenskapsrådet
  • National Institute on Aging (R01AG028321)
  • National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01HL102214, RC1HL101056, R01HL092577)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Atrial Fibrillation Management and Outcomes
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Clinical Neurology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
Keywords
atrial fibrillation, global burden of disease, prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, sex differences, regional variation, cardiovascular disease, population-based study, Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, 1990-2010 trends, women's health, cardiovascular risk factors
MeSH terms
Adult, Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, Global Health, Incidence, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution, Quality-Adjusted Life Years

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-09, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).

A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-09 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review