A comparison of temporal trends in United States autism prevalence to trends in suspected environmental factors
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: The prevalence of diagnosed autism has increased rapidly over the last several decades among U.S. children. Environmental factors are thought to be driving this increase and a list of the top ten suspected environmental toxins was published recently. METHODS: Temporal trends in autism for birth years 1970-2005 were derived from a combination of data from the California Department of Developmental Services (CDDS) and the United States Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA). Temporal trends in suspected toxins were derived from data compiled during an extensive literature survey. Toxin and autism trends were compared by visual inspection and computed correlation coefficients. Using IDEA data, autism prevalence vs. birth year trends were calculated independently from snapshots of data from the most recent annual report, and by tracking prevalence at a constant age over many years of reports. The ratio of the snapshot:tracking trend slopes was used to estimate the "real" fraction of the increase in autism. RESULTS: The CDDS and IDEA data sets are qualitatively consistent in suggesting a strong increase in autism prevalence over recent decades. The quantitative comparison of IDEA snapshot and constant-age tracking trend slopes suggests that ~75-80% of the tracked increase in autism since 1988 is due to an actual increase in the disorder rather than to changing diagnostic criteria. Most of the suspected environmental toxins examined have flat or decreasing temporal trends that correlate poorly to the rise in autism. Some, including lead, organochlorine pesticides and vehicular emissions, have strongly decreasing trends. Among the suspected toxins surveyed, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, aluminum adjuvants, and the herbicide glyphosate have increasing trends that correlate positively to the rise in autism. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnosed autism prevalence has risen dramatically in the U.S over the last several decades and continued to trend upward as of birth year 2005. The increase is mainly real and has occurred mostly since the late 1980s. In contrast, children's exposure to most of the top ten toxic compounds has remained flat or decreased over this same time frame. Environmental factors with increasing temporal trends can help suggest hypotheses for drivers of autism that merit further investigation.
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To date, there is weak or conflicting evidence for the hypothesis that geographic variation or time trends in prevalence may reflect differences in exposure to environmental risk factors or increased patterns of migration.
“To date, there is weak or conflicting evidence for the hypothesis that geographic variation or time trends in prevalence may reflect differences in exposure to environmental risk factors (Nevison, 2014) or increased patterns of migration (Keen et al., 2010).”
From Global prevalence of autism: A systematic review update (2022) · cites this paper as Nevison, 2014
The Results (no page listed) report mixed temporal evidence: most suspected factors had flat or decreasing trends, while a few rose alongside autism prevalence. The Discussion, under “Final thoughts and considerations” (no page listed), cautions that those correlations do not prove causation. This supports caution about time-trend evidence, but the paper does not assess geographic variation, and it argues that environmental exposures may drive the rise rather than characterizing the overall hypothesis as weak. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredLifestyle risk factors such as smoking and alcohol consumption and other potential hazards related to nutrition and medication are in decline.
“Further, ASD risk associated with environmental exposures has been stable for air pollutants and pesticides, with lifestyle risk factors such as smoking and alcohol consumption and other potential hazards related to nutrition and medication in decline [264].”
From The contribution of environmental exposure to the etiology of autism spectrum disorder (2019) · cites this paper as [264]
ASD risk associated with environmental exposures has been stable for air pollutants and pesticides.
“Further, ASD risk associated with environmental exposures has been stable for air pollutants and pesticides, with lifestyle risk factors such as smoking and alcohol consumption and other potential hazards related to nutrition and medication in decline [264].”
From The contribution of environmental exposure to the etiology of autism spectrum disorder (2019) · cites this paper as [264]
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EXTRACTIVISMO, FUERZAS PRODUCTIVAS Y REESTRUCTURACIÓN AGRARIA EN PARAGUAY
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Humanização em terapia intensiva - Aspectos iniciais
Ferreira, F. H. (2021) · Editora Conhecimento Livre eBooks · doi:10.37423/210403979
Baker, S. M. (2020) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-43044-9.00152-7
Daños colaterales del régimen agroalimentario neoliberal
Fogel, R. B. (2023) · Brazilian Journal of Development · doi:10.34117/bjdv9n1-078
- Authors
- Nevison, C. D.
- Affiliations
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Nevison, Cynthia D
- ORCID
- Nevison, Cynthia D
- Venue
- Environmental Health
- Published
- 2014-09-05
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 73-73
- ISSN
- 1476-069X (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4177682
- OpenAlex
- W2105742120
- Cited by
- 111
- References
- 103
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 14
- FWCI
- 8.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Child Nutrition and Feeding Issues
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetics and Neurodevelopmental Disorders
- Keywords
- autism prevalence, temporal trends, environmental toxins, autism risk factors, lead exposure, organochlorine pesticides, vehicle emissions, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, alum adjuvant, glyphosate, diagnostic criteria revision, Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, children's environmental exposure
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Autistic Disorder, Child, Child, Preschool, Environmental Pollutants, Female, Humans, Male, United States, Prevalence
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